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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    Biden, Sanders and Trump are all younger than you Nick.

    That must make you feel young again.

    Or maybe middle aged again :wink:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MPs complaining about simply doing their job is ridiculous. This is what they're paid to do.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    Biden, Sanders and Trump are all younger than you Nick.

    That must make you feel young again.

    Or maybe middle aged again :wink:
    I believe they are older!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    Biden, Sanders and Trump are all younger than you Nick.

    That must make you feel young again.

    Or maybe middle aged again :wink:
    I think if the Democrat candidate is older than Trump he or she will stand a good chance. If they're younger they won't.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.


    https://jacobinmag.com/2019/04/pete-buttigieg-president-democratic-primary
    Good read.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    I don't think he's yet well known enough to give you reliable polling against Trump. That polling order almost exactly coincides with name recognition, with the exception that Kamala Harris seems to be overperforming a touch and Elizabeth Warren underperforming.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The lack of rumours leads me to believe this is a fairly safe hold 40 percent to 30 percent
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Telegraph: "Grassroots Conservative activists are "quitting in their droves", it has been claimed, as new polling shows that more than 90 per cent disagree with Theresa May's decision to open talks with Jeremy Corbyn."

    I'm lost now.

    I thought Blue Momentum was trying to get extra people to join to vote for Boris?

    I'm lost because I don't know what these activists expected given they can presumably count and can see that the PM doesn't have the numbers to even no deal, given workarounds are being made there. Do they think she opened talks with Corbyn lightly?

    At least see if it goes anywhere first, see what the cost is. Because simply being open to working with others, even opponents, is not wrong. Particularly when you lack a majority.
    They expect MPs to dump this crap PM.
    To be replaced by whom in order to achieve what ?
    To be better. Don’t be so binary. A sandwich with one turd in it is better than one with two.
    That's still not telling us how it would be better and how that would be achieved.
    Are you seriously telling me that a new leader couldn’t raise morale and enchance party unity ?

    There are lots of ways forward better than Mays. Virtually any approach is.
    As there are 'lots of ways forward better than Mays' perhaps you could list a few.
    A few off the top of my head, could be done individually or in combination, coming from all sort of backs - though some are contradictory with others.
    1: Take actions necessary to prepare for and enact No Deal if necessary [should have been done from start]
    2: Have a General Election led by someone with more charisma than a zombie.
    3: Have a PM with more charisma than a zombie.
    4: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a referendum.
    5: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a General Election to break the deadlock.
    6: Be prepared to sack Chris Grayling*

    * Doesn't solve Brexit but still worth doing.
    Theresa May has similar levels of charisma to John Major, and in 1992 the public actually liked him because of it, but unfortunately developments since then like reality TV and the fetish for "emoting in public" meant that by 2017 most people under the age of 50 didn't appreciate Mrs May's lack of it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    justin124 said:

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    Biden, Sanders and Trump are all younger than you Nick.

    That must make you feel young again.

    Or maybe middle aged again :wink:
    I believe they are older!
    Correct.

    I meant older not younger.

    Time for some sleep.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,720

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    He's a very clever and charming bloke, which may not be enough nationally. In fact, it almost certainly isn't. But it's very much enough to build a devoted following in a primary. "Harmless centrist" betrays your own thinking, he's in many ways the substance people wish Beto had. And God deliver us all from the ludicrous vacuous bilge of Sanders.

    Now, my gut would tell me he'd do badly in a presidential election, but polls against Trump are meaningless except for established candidates (Biden, Warren, Sanders). He'll do well in the early primary stages, which is what he wants, before deferring, joining a bigger campaign, hope for a big job and look to run again having broken a few barriers. A good trading bet.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Telegraph: "Grassroots Conservative activists are "quitting in their droves", it has been claimed, as new polling shows that more than 90 per cent disagree with Theresa May's decision to open talks with Jeremy Corbyn."

    I'm lost now.

    I thought Blue Momentum was trying to get extra people to join to vote for Boris?

    I'm lost because I don't know what these activists expected given they can presumably count and can see that the PM doesn't have the numbers to even no deal, given workarounds are being made there. Do they think she opened talks with Corbyn lightly?

    At least see if it goes anywhere first, see what the cost is. Because simply being open to working with others, even opponents, is not wrong. Particularly when you lack a majority.
    They expect MPs to dump this crap PM.
    To be replaced by whom in order to achieve what ?
    To be better. Don’t be so binary. A sandwich with one turd in it is better than one with two.
    That's still not telling us how it would be better and how that would be achieved.
    Are you seriously telling me that a new leader couldn’t raise morale and enchance party unity ?

    There are lots of ways forward better than Mays. Virtually any approach is.
    As there are 'lots of ways forward better than Mays' perhaps you could list a few.
    A few off the top of my head, could be done individually or in combination, coming from all sort of backs - though some are contradictory with others.
    1: Take actions necessary to prepare for and enact No Deal if necessary [should have been done from start]
    2: Have a General Election led by someone with more charisma than a zombie.
    3: Have a PM with more charisma than a zombie.
    4: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a referendum.
    5: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a General Election to break the deadlock.
    6: Be prepared to sack Chris Grayling*

    * Doesn't solve Brexit but still worth doing.
    Theresa May has similar levels of charisma to John Major, and in 1992 the public actually liked him because of it, but unfortunately developments since then like reality TV and the fetish for "emoting in public" meant that by 2017 most people under the age of 50 didn't appreciate Mrs May's lack of it as they did in 92 for Major.
    She is far more socially awkward than John Major ever was. Major was seen as a breath of fresh air in 1992 after Thatcher.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Plaid say they are 4th
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Telegraph: "Grassroots Conservative activists are "quitting in their droves", it has been claimed, as new polling shows that more than 90 per cent disagree with Theresa May's decision to open talks with Jeremy Corbyn."

    I'm lost now.

    I thought Blue Momentum was trying to get extra people to join to vote for Boris?

    I'm lost because I don't know what these activists expected given they can presumably count and can see that the PM doesn't have the numbers to even no deal, given workarounds are being made there. Do they think she opened talks with Corbyn lightly?

    At least see if it goes anywhere first, see what the cost is. Because simply being open to working with others, even opponents, is not wrong. Particularly when you lack a majority.
    They expect MPs to dump this crap PM.
    To be replaced by whom in order to achieve what ?
    To be better. Don’t be so binary. A sandwich with one turd in it is better than one with two.
    That's still not telling us how it would be better and how that would be achieved.
    Are you seriously telling me that a new leader couldn’t raise morale and enchance party unity ?

    There are lots of ways forward better than Mays. Virtually any approach is.
    As there are 'lots of ways forward better than Mays' perhaps you could list a few.
    A few off the top of my head, could be done individually or in combination, coming from all sort of backs - though some are contradictory with others.
    1: Take actions necessary to prepare for and enact No Deal if necessary [should have been done from start]
    2: Have a General Election led by someone with more charisma than a zombie.
    3: Have a PM with more charisma than a zombie.
    4: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a referendum.
    5: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a General Election to break the deadlock.
    6: Be prepared to sack Chris Grayling*

    * Doesn't solve Brexit but still worth doing.
    Theresa May has similar levels of charisma to John Major, and in 1992 the public actually liked him because of it, but unfortunately developments since then like reality TV and the fetish for "emoting in public" meant that by 2017 most people under the age of 50 didn't appreciate Mrs May's lack of it as they did in 92 for Major.
    I think that's unfair on John Major. In 1992 Major got on his soapbox in a way May well and truly did not in 2017.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    edited April 2019
    justin124 said:

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    Biden, Sanders and Trump are all younger than you Nick.

    That must make you feel young again.

    Or maybe middle aged again :wink:
    I believe they are older!
    Indeed. I'm standing for the council for the first time in my life.

    Each youngster has a different idea of fun. Actually potentially meeting every voter over a few years...
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Siôn Jenkins
    @Sion_J
    39s40 seconds ago

    They may just be playing it down, but the Tories don’t sound all that confident. Some of them admitting this week’s events in Westminster have not helped their cause at all. #NewportWest
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    marke09 said:


    Siôn Jenkins
    @Sion_J
    39s40 seconds ago

    They may just be playing it down, but the Tories don’t sound all that confident. Some of them admitting this week’s events in Westminster have not helped their cause at all. #NewportWest

    I may have just made a bad bet. Glad its just a tenner for charity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Telegraph: "Grassroots Conservative activists are "quitting in their droves", it has been claimed, as new polling shows that more than 90 per cent disagree with Theresa May's decision to open talks with Jeremy Corbyn."

    I'm lost now.

    I thought Blue Momentum was trying to get extra people to join to vote for Boris?

    I'm lost because I don't know what these activists expected given they can presumably count and can see that the PM doesn't have the numbers to even no deal, given workarounds are being made there. Do they think she opened talks with Corbyn lightly?

    At least see if it goes anywhere first, see what the cost is. Because simply being open to working with others, even opponents, is not wrong. Particularly when you lack a majority.
    They expect MPs to dump this crap PM.
    To be replaced by whom in order to achieve what ?
    To be better. Don’t be so binary. A sandwich with one turd in it is better than one with two.
    That's still not telling us how it would be better and how that would be achieved.
    r than Mays. Virtually any approach is.
    d better than Mays' perhaps you could list a few.
    A few off the top of my head, could be done individually or in combination, coming from all sort of backs - though some are contradictory with others.
    1: Take actions necessary to prepare for and enact No Deal if necessary [should have been done from start]
    2: Have a General Election led by someone with more charisma than a zombie.
    3: Have a PM with more charisma than a zombie.
    4: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a referendum.
    5: Be prepared to propose and back an extension and a General Election to break the deadlock.
    6: Be prepared to sack Chris Grayling*

    * Doesn't solve Brexit but still worth doing.
    Theresa May has similar levels of charisma to John Major, and in 1992 the public actually liked him because of it, but unfortunately developments since then like reality TV and the fetish for "emoting in public" meant that by 2017 most people under the age of 50 didn't appreciate Mrs May's lack of it.
    Having seen both May and Major in person, Major is actually quite charismatic one to one, May rather less so. I would say May is the brighter of the two though. In 2017 May also got the highest Tory voteshare since Major in 1992.



  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    marke09 said:


    Siôn Jenkins
    @Sion_J
    39s40 seconds ago

    They may just be playing it down, but the Tories don’t sound all that confident. Some of them admitting this week’s events in Westminster have not helped their cause at all. #NewportWest

    I may have just made a bad bet. Glad its just a tenner for charity.
    I am confident my Charity would be Ashgate Hospice what is yours.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    marke09 said:


    Siôn Jenkins
    @Sion_J
    39s40 seconds ago

    They may just be playing it down, but the Tories don’t sound all that confident. Some of them admitting this week’s events in Westminster have not helped their cause at all. #NewportWest

    I suspect earlier confidence was the postals, we are now seeing the votes on the day.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    Plaid say they are 4th

    Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Neil Hamilton not confident - playing down chances and says Tory vote did not collapse as hoped
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited April 2019
    brendan16 said:

    marke09 said:

    @DeansOfCardiff
    17s
    18 seconds ago
    More

    Candidate agents being summoned to discuss spoiled ballots #NewportWest

    Shame we won't get to see the comments written on those spoilt ballots!
    The agents do.

    I was a bit disappointed when I was an agent for a couple of local elections that no-one seemed animated enough by the contests to spoil their ballots in a memorable way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121

    Neil Hamilton not confident - playing down chances and says Tory vote did not collapse as hoped

    Is Neil Hamilton ill? He looks shocking...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    Neil Hamilton not confident - playing down chances and says Tory vote did not collapse as hoped

    Oooh could be paying a £10 to It's charity yet.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Counting is over
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Ian Craig
    @ArgusICraig
    5m5 minutes ago

    General mood around the place is this is Labour's, and possibly by a decent margin #NewportWest
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    HYUFD said:

    Plaid say they are 4th

    Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI
    This part of Wales is terrible for the idea of independence, low Welsh speaking levels and just not generally good hunting ground for Plaid. Places like Newport would be like the bigger cities in Brexit with strong remain/stay votes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    God I hope I lose a tenner. Hamilton is a racist
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    nico67 said:

    isam said:
    The UK would have a veto on an EU army if it was still in , the same veto it would also have on Turkey joining .
    The British are going to be involved in the EUMS whether brexit happens or not as the alternative is to spend (a lot) more on defence. It will probably settle on something like the French involvement in NATO: "inserted but not integrated".
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Plaid say they are 4th

    Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI
    Fourth would be good for Plaid here, seeing off alternatives in a weak area for them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Result imminent apparently
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    God I hope I lose a tenner. Hamilton is a racist

    What did he say?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    AndyJS said:

    God I hope I lose a tenner. Hamilton is a racist

    What did he say?
    On about Soros money

    Also saying a lot of people think like Tommy R
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    marke09 said:


    Siôn Jenkins
    @Sion_J
    39s40 seconds ago

    They may just be playing it down, but the Tories don’t sound all that confident. Some of them admitting this week’s events in Westminster have not helped their cause at all. #NewportWest

    I may have just made a bad bet. Glad its just a tenner for charity.
    I am confident my Charity would be Ashgate Hospice what is yours.
    Baby Beat Appeal.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,720

    HYUFD said:

    Plaid say they are 4th

    Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI
    This part of Wales is terrible for the idea of independence, low Welsh speaking levels and just not generally good hunting ground for Plaid. Places like Newport would be like the bigger cities in Brexit with strong remain/stay votes.
    For once I agree with you. The idea Newport is Plaid country is absurd.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Did any PBers bet on the Dunfermline by-election, when the odds still favoured the losing candidate about 30 seconds before the announcement?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121

    God I hope I lose a tenner. Hamilton is a racist

    Doubt he believes any of that bullshit he said about Yaxley-Lennon. He'a the ultimate chancer...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    Ld candidate not even there! He had a long standing committment! At 1.10am
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Andrew Neil on the Lib Dems - genuine lol!!!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The LD's "local candidate" isn't at the count.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    Ld candidate not even there!

    On a people's vote March!!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    The mind boggles.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Guessing there's a big delay streaming This Week on iPlayer.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    Can't stop laughing. Think I've had enough.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Assange just about to be kicked out of embassy according to Sky
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    Assange just about to be kicked out of embassy according to Sky

    He's been abusing their hospitality a long time now.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    Lucky man/lady/sheep ;)

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Andrew Neil about Labour policy on Brexit - lol
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    Maybe he's holding a Skype meeting with someone in Australia.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    Neil offering a fake sneer to Plaid - "if you double your vote it'll be 4%" - er, no, it'll be over 5%. Time he retired. Mind you, the Plaid speaker didn't seem to know either.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,691
    MJW said:

    I don't really get the Buttigieg thing - he's pleasant enough, but basically a harmless centrist who does least well against Trump of all the candidates:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    Biden still doing much the best, though I'd prefer Sanders myself.

    he's in many ways the substance people wish Beto had.
    Spot on
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    AndyJS said:

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    Maybe he's holding a Skype meeting with someone in Australia.
    Oh is that what it's called?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,649
    AndyJS said:

    MPs complaining about simply doing their job is ridiculous. This is what they're paid to do.
    I sympathise with them on one level: they are human and if they are distressed that is not a good thing

    But they earn £77Kpa, they get an allowance for travel and accommodation, they get further funding to run an office and staff, and they work a four-day week on average.

    So they do have the facilities and money to cope with the stress. So my sympathy, although sincere, is limited.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,691
    Floater said:

    Assange just about to be kicked out of embassy according to Sky

    What a shame. Poor old Julian, eh?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121

    Ld candidate not even there! He had a long standing committment! At 1.10am

    Yet another Lib-Dem lost deposit? :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    MPs complaining about simply doing their job is ridiculous. This is what they're paid to do.
    I sympathise with them on one level: they are human and if they are distressed that is not a good thing

    But they earn £77Kpa, they get an allowance for travel and accommodation, they get further funding to run an office and staff, and they work a four-day week on average.

    So they do have the facilities and money to cope with the stress. So my sympathy, although sincere, is limited.
    £77k for a Part Time job is very reasonable indeed.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    Say you have a failing backup cron and you're also running in a by-election, you'd want to concentrate on the by-election until the voting was done, then get on fixing that backup before you do anything else.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    Live link to LD candidate at local Cineworld
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,649

    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    MPs complaining about simply doing their job is ridiculous. This is what they're paid to do.
    I sympathise with them on one level: they are human and if they are distressed that is not a good thing

    But they earn £77Kpa, they get an allowance for travel and accommodation, they get further funding to run an office and staff, and they work a four-day week on average.

    So they do have the facilities and money to cope with the stress. So my sympathy, although sincere, is limited.
    £77k for a Part Time job is very reasonable indeed.
    Indeed.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Re: the LD, infamously the LD by-election literature had a typo with the wrong election date....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Assange just about to be kicked out of embassy according to Sky

    What a shame. Poor old Julian, eh?
    Has there been a change of government in Ecuador? Just wondering what might account for this change of policy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Re: the LD, infamously the LD by-election literature had a typo with the wrong election date....

    Winning Here
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    AndyJS said:


    Has there been a change of government in Ecuador? Just wondering what might account for this change of policy.

    Turns out suing the country that's sheltering you isn't a good idea :-)

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    MPs complaining about simply doing their job is ridiculous. This is what they're paid to do.
    I sympathise with them on one level: they are human and if they are distressed that is not a good thing

    But they earn £77Kpa, they get an allowance for travel and accommodation, they get further funding to run an office and staff, and they work a four-day week on average.

    So they do have the facilities and money to cope with the stress. So my sympathy, although sincere, is limited.
    Have you ever met an MP? I've never met one who worked less than 6 days a week, and the 7th tends to get eaten oo.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Neil offering a fake sneer to Plaid - "if you double your vote it'll be 4%" - er, no, it'll be over 5%. Time he retired. Mind you, the Plaid speaker didn't seem to know either.

    No - it will actually be under 5%. 4.96% to be exact.

    Sorry to be pedantic!

    Here we go....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,691

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    Say you have a failing backup cron and you're also running in a by-election, you'd want to concentrate on the by-election until the voting was done, then get on fixing that backup before you do anything else.
    What's a backup?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    My radio is playing backwards
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    My radio is playing backwards

    Oh no it's Welsh
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Assange just about to be kicked out of embassy according to Sky

    What a shame. Poor old Julian, eh?
    Has there been a change of government in Ecuador? Just wondering what might account for this change of policy.
    Mueller?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    rcs1000 said:

    What kind of candidate has a 'long-standing commitment' at 1:10 on his by-election night?

    Say you have a failing backup cron and you're also running in a by-election, you'd want to concentrate on the by-election until the voting was done, then get on fixing that backup before you do anything else.
    What's a backup?
    It's what we say about PB when you've fixed it.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Labour HOLD Newport West. Ruth Jones new MP.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Assange just about to be kicked out of embassy according to Sky

    What a shame. Poor old Julian, eh?
    Has there been a change of government in Ecuador? Just wondering what might account for this change of policy.
    Yes and tensions have been rising for a while.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/04/03/ecuador-says-julian-assange-violated-asylum-terms-london-embassy/3350973002/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Never heard a returning officer read out the list of candidates before the votes before.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    LAB 9308
    CON 7357
    UKIP 2023
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    LAB 9308
    CON 7357
    UKIP 2023

    Congrats PT you were right

    PM me details of you charity
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A swing to the Tories surely?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    swing to conservatives of a minimal amount
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    Here are the results - a Labour majority of nearly 2,000 - if I heard it right.

    Labour 9,308
    Con 7,357
    UKIP 2,023
    Plaid 1,185
    Ld 1,088
    Green 924
    Renew 879
    SDP 202
    For Britain 159
    Abolish Welsh Assembly 205
    Democrats and Vets 185

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    LAB: 39.6% (-12.7)
    CON: 31.3% (-8.0)
    UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)
    PC: 5.0% (+2.6)
    LDEM: 4.6% (+2.4)
    GRN: 3.9% (+2.8)
    RNW: 3.7% (+3.7)
    ATWA: 0.9% (+0.9)
    SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)
    D&V: 0.8% (+0.8)
    FBM: 0.7% (+0.7)

    Labour HOLD.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited April 2019
    Maj 5658 down to 1951 (+13% down to +8.3%), on a way lower turnout.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,178
    edited April 2019


    Hardly a shabby result for the Tories given the current turmoil.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited April 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Plaid say they are 4th

    Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI
    This part of Wales is terrible for the idea of independence, low Welsh speaking levels and just not generally good hunting ground for Plaid. Places like Newport would be like the bigger cities in Brexit with strong remain/stay votes.
    Except Newport voted Leave just as Wales voted Leave.

    Still a pretty awful result for Plaid to come behind UKIP even if they were unlikely to win
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited April 2019

    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    MPs complaining about simply doing their job is ridiculous. This is what they're paid to do.
    I sympathise with them on one level: they are human and if they are distressed that is not a good thing

    But they earn £77Kpa, they get an allowance for travel and accommodation, they get further funding to run an office and staff, and they work a four-day week on average.

    So they do have the facilities and money to cope with the stress. So my sympathy, although sincere, is limited.
    Have you ever met an MP? I've never met one who worked less than 6 days a week, and the 7th tends to get eaten oo.
    The complaints sound similar to those about footballers.

    Even if you think they don't deserve a break or they earn enough to go without one it makes sense to make sure they are rested (mentally and physically) if you want them to give you their peak performance.
  • GazGaz Posts: 45
    AndyJS said:

    Did any PBers bet on the Dunfermline by-election, when the odds still favoured the losing candidate about 30 seconds before the announcement?

    Yes! Made a lot of money on that. The odds went silly before the boxes had been emptied to begin the initial confirmation count.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Thought Con vote was meant to be plummeting following this week's events with everyone cutting up membership cards?

    As ever, political anoraks on PB are not very representative.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    swing to conservatives of a minimal amount

    :o
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2019
    Newport West is definitely trending to the Tories over the long term, which isn't surprising given it's very white, older than average, non-trendy, lower middle-class, etc.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    marke09 said:

    LAB: 39.6% (-12.7)
    CON: 31.3% (-8.0)
    UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)
    PC: 5.0% (+2.6)
    LDEM: 4.6% (+2.4)
    GRN: 3.9% (+2.8)
    RNW: 3.7% (+3.7)
    ATWA: 0.9% (+0.9)
    SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)
    D&V: 0.8% (+0.8)
    FBM: 0.7% (+0.7)

    Labour HOLD.

    2.3% swing Lab to Con
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    edited April 2019
    UKIP, the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens all put on raw votes versus 2017.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    edited April 2019
    You could get 4/5 on the Tories finishing 2nd last night. Free money in retrospect.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,121
    "Renew" wasted their money? :D
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    LAB-CON swing 2.4%
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Apparently Julian Assange is about to be expelled from the Ecuadorian embassy in the next few hours or days according to Wikileaks. Will he be arrested by the Met and extradited.

    https://news.sky.com/story/wikileaks-julian-assange-to-be-expelled-within-hours-to-days-11684549
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    LAB 9308
    CON 7357
    UKIP 2023

    Congrats PT you were right

    PM me details of you charity
    Done.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    Not a bad acceptance speech as these things go. Result a bit meh all round.

    Incidentally, the Guardian vox pop report on the by-election seems to have been a classic of "find some people to make a story" - the article made it sound as though Renew was having a huge surge, whereas they actually lost their deposit. I suspect the journalist interviewed a lot of people and picked out the ones who fitted the story.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    marke09 said:

    LAB: 39.6% (-12.7)
    CON: 31.3% (-8.0)
    UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)
    PC: 5.0% (+2.6)
    LDEM: 4.6% (+2.4)
    GRN: 3.9% (+2.8)
    RNW: 3.7% (+3.7)
    ATWA: 0.9% (+0.9)
    SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)
    D&V: 0.8% (+0.8)
    FBM: 0.7% (+0.7)

    Labour HOLD.

    2.3% swing Lab to Con
    UKIP biggest gainers tonight on voteshare, Labour and the Tories down, a warning to both to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal if they are to avoid being hit in Leave areas
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    marke09 said:

    LAB: 39.6% (-12.7)
    CON: 31.3% (-8.0)
    UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)
    PC: 5.0% (+2.6)
    LDEM: 4.6% (+2.4)
    GRN: 3.9% (+2.8)
    RNW: 3.7% (+3.7)
    ATWA: 0.9% (+0.9)
    SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)
    D&V: 0.8% (+0.8)
    FBM: 0.7% (+0.7)

    Labour HOLD.

    Kind of amazing to hear the dog not barking.

    This is totally what you'd expect for by-election in a seat held by an opposition party with a meh leader, up against a mid-term government that also has a meh leader. Normal vote share changes, normal turnout. No sign of anger, disillusionment, excitement or any other opinion about Brexit, a cabinet at war with itself, a leader who had totally lost her grip, a parliament in chaos.
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