MPs complaining about simply doing their job is ridiculous. This is what they're paid to do.
I sympathise with them on one level: they are human and if they are distressed that is not a good thing
But they earn £77Kpa, they get an allowance for travel and accommodation, they get further funding to run an office and staff, and they work a four-day week on average.
So they do have the facilities and money to cope with the stress. So my sympathy, although sincere, is limited.
Have you ever met an MP? I've never met one who worked less than 6 days a week, and the 7th tends to get eaten oo.
I have met some, though briefly and not enough to meet the threshold for your query. But my point stands. This is a hard thing that MPs have cope with but MPs do have the facilities and money to handle this. I appreciate the stress is distressing but long hours and stress are not unusual and many people with fewer resources cope with more problems. Which is why I said "my sympathy, although sincere, is limited".
Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI
This part of Wales is terrible for the idea of independence, low Welsh speaking levels and just not generally good hunting ground for Plaid. Places like Newport would be like the bigger cities in Brexit with strong remain/stay votes.
Except Newport voted Leave just as Wales voted Leave.
Still a pretty awful result for Plaid to come behind UKIP even if they were unlikely to win
I meant in a Welsh independence referendum places like Newport would produce the heaviest stay votes in the same way bigger cities (was thinking Manchester, London, Liverpool etc.) did in the Brexit referendum rather than Newport itself was a remainy type place.
A 21 point drop for the two main parties is what you'd expect after everything that's been going on at Westminster, and is precisely why both of them are not exactly relishing the prospect of fighting the European Elections.
In terms of FPTP elections good news for the 2 big parties I'd argue. With lots of small motivated parties taking small shares of the vote nobody can touch the big 2 who can crush the others with habitual voters alone.
This is totally what you'd expect for by-election in a seat held by an opposition party with a meh leader, up against a mid-term government that also has a meh leader. Normal vote share changes, normal turnout. No sign of anger, disillusionment, excitement or any other opinion about Brexit, a cabinet at war with itself, a leader who had totally lost her grip, a parliament in chaos.
Obviously the smaller parties up - and a slight illustration of UKIP's problems too as their offshoots set up by former party members and MEPs - For Britain, Democrats and Veterans and to a lesser extent the SDP - got nearly 2.5% between them. Add in the Brexit party potentially and that is a lot of splintering in the European elections if we participate when all will presumably divide the regional list vote.
Seems the BBC talking heads spin is that Labour lost votes to the Greens, LDs and Plaid - because voters are protesting about their lack of clarity on a second referendum. Or perhaps Labour and Tory supporters just didn't turn out and the smaller party supporters were more motivated?
One of those useless facts for election nerds is that the Labour majority of 1,951 is exactly the same as the number of votes Arthur Scargill polled in Newport East in 1997 for the Socialist Labour Party.
Well looks like Wales will stay with England then whatever happens with Scotland and NI
This part of Wales is terrible for the idea of independence, low Welsh speaking levels and just not generally good hunting ground for Plaid. Places like Newport would be like the bigger cities in Brexit with strong remain/stay votes.
Except Newport voted Leave just as Wales voted Leave.
Still a pretty awful result for Plaid to come behind UKIP even if they were unlikely to win
I meant in a Welsh independence referendum places like Newport would produce the heaviest stay votes in the same way bigger cities (was thinking Manchester, London, Liverpool etc.) did in the Brexit referendum rather than Newport itself was a remainy type place.
Maybe but given Wales almost rejected even having the Welsh Assembly with 49% voting against it and Wales voted Leave just like England the idea there is any real thirst for independence in Wales outside a few parts of the North West and West coast is absurd. Contrast Scotland where I don't think there was a seat the SNP even came third at the last general election let alone 4th
This is totally what you'd expect for by-election in a seat held by an opposition party with a meh leader, up against a mid-term government that also has a meh leader. Normal vote share changes, normal turnout. No sign of anger, disillusionment, excitement or any other opinion about Brexit, a cabinet at war with itself, a leader who had totally lost her grip, a parliament in chaos.
This. But on both sides. It's where we were in 2017. Don't like Labour. Don't like the Tories, but unconvinced by alternatives so take a pick or stay in. There's almost a sense of Milibandism settling into Labour at the moment - i.e. an assumption that by just sitting there with a vague left-wing manifesto and making positive noises on stuff while atually annoying key support blocs you win because the Tories are an utter shower and there's no obvious electoral alternative. Logic would dictate this is a poor result for a party aiming to win over sceptics and seats, but who knows? Being attacked by the Tories is like being attacked by Cerberus in the middle of a tail chasing session. So it might be enough.
Some Tory to UKIP votes , and quite a lot from Labour to parties supporting a second EU vote .
No guarantee of that whatsoever.
Bear in mind the turnout is vastly reduced so comparing like for like is hard, plus UKIP and Neil Hamilton are a nasty anti-Islam party now rather than an anti-EU one.
Neil Hamilton's vote was slightly larger than the Labour majority over the Tories. But of course we can't assume that all of his votes would have gone to the Tories if UKIP hadn't stood.
If the UKIP brand is still in tact, it suggests Farage’s new outfit might struggle in the European elections.
Farage's outfit noticeably didn't stand here.
Obviously frit!
The Brexit party is purely virtual at present isn't it - its essentially a Nigel Farage outift with a database of supporters. Its doesn't yet legally exist formally and its website doesn't appear to have been updated much recently.
If they are to stand in UK wide elections in 7 weeks and get a slate of candidates on the regional lists they probably need to get a move on! Nigel is a bit busy doing his phone in show perhaps?
First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
If the UKIP brand is still in tact, it suggests Farage’s new outfit might struggle in the European elections.
Farage's outfit noticeably didn't stand here.
Obviously frit!
The Brexit party is purely virtual at present isn't it - its essentially a Nigel Farage outift with a database of supporters. Its doesn't yet legally exist formally and its website doesn't appear to have been updated much recently.
If they are to stand in elections in 7 weeks they probably need to get a move on! Nigel is a bit busy doing his phone in show perhaps?
Nigel is an egotist who is far more interested in media perfomances than anything else.
Neil Hamilton's vote was slightly larger than the Labour majority over the Tories. But of course we can't assume that all of his votes would have gone to the Tories if UKIP hadn't stood.
Tory is the most obvious transfer for UKIP votes (not including the really minor parties) but I feel like 2019 UKIP voters are far less likely to transfer to the Tories than 2015 UKIP voters. The ones who would I would imagine already have and haven't gone back to UKIP
If the UKIP brand is still in tact, it suggests Farage’s new outfit might struggle in the European elections.
Farage's outfit noticeably didn't stand here.
Obviously frit!
The Brexit party is purely virtual at present isn't it - its essentially a Nigel Farage outift with a database of supporters. Its doesn't yet legally exist formally and its website doesn't appear to have been updated much recently.
If they are to stand in UK wide elections in 7 weeks and get a slate of candidates on the regional lists they probably need to get a move on! Nigel is a bit busy doing his phone in show perhaps?
I thought the Brexit party was legally registered and all ready to go? But as you say, very quiet on Twitter etc, clearly a vessel still waiting to be manned.
First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
Making the calculations though if your closest rival is a Conservative and his vote is also getting split off you are still okay as long as you don't lose your majority plus whatever he loses. Unless UKIP or the Brexit party really step up then most leave constituencies with Labour MPs are fights against the Tories.
Not a bad acceptance speech as these things go. Result a bit meh all round.
Incidentally, the Guardian vox pop report on the by-election seems to have been a classic of "find some people to make a story" - the article made it sound as though Renew was having a huge surge, whereas they actually lost their deposit. I suspect the journalist interviewed a lot of people and picked out the ones who fitted the story.
I would definitely suggest that when you have been the main opposition party for nine years, this by election result in what has been a Labour heartland constituency for nearly four decades was definitely a bit meh for you.
Who is the guest sat on the right? I thought it was Richard Ayoade for a while. Very similar voice.
Stephen Bush, New Statesman. Am I getting old or is he very young?
He's around retirement age for a professional footballer... its makes you sound a little old...
Edit: Had him down as maybe mid 30's (from various political references) but google isn't helping me here.
Edit 2: Not that you necessarily are old but I have an image of a 70 year old man asking an almost middle aged man if he's left school yet and if he is even legally old enough to do what he's doing...
Labour not doing anywhere near well enough given all the Tory turmoil...
Right, but also no minor party surging ahead to take advantage of their shittiness...
No but as ever in a general election it's all about Lab Vs Con... Labour should really be winning by elections by 20% over Con at the moment...
Having a look at similarish by-election at this point in Parliament during 2010-15. Corby by election in 2012 looks like a comparison. With a 12.7% swing con to lab, with lab taking the seat.
First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
Labour not doing anywhere near well enough given all the Tory turmoil...
Right, but also no minor party surging ahead to take advantage of their shittiness...
No but as ever in a general election it's all about Lab Vs Con... Labour should really be winning by elections by 20% over Con at the moment...
Having a look at similarish by-election at this point in Parliament during 2010-15. Corby by election in 2012 looks like a comparison. With a 12.7% swing con to lab, with lab taking the seat.
Labour not doing anywhere near well enough given all the Tory turmoil...
Right, but also no minor party surging ahead to take advantage of their shittiness...
No but as ever in a general election it's all about Lab Vs Con... Labour should really be winning by elections by 20% over Con at the moment...
Having a look at similarish by-election at this point in Parliament during 2010-15. Corby by election in 2012 looks like a comparison. With a 12.7% swing con to lab, with lab taking the seat.
Labour not doing anywhere near well enough given all the Tory turmoil...
Right, but also no minor party surging ahead to take advantage of their shittiness...
No but as ever in a general election it's all about Lab Vs Con... Labour should really be winning by elections by 20% over Con at the moment...
Having a look at similarish by-election at this point in Parliament during 2010-15. Corby by election in 2012 looks like a comparison. With a 12.7% swing con to lab, with lab taking the seat.
Do we have a good 2015-17 parliament comparison?
Copeland would be the obvious...
Cheers. I'm just wondering about the differential turnout from the general election to by elections under Corbyn and if that is anything to do with Corbyn Labour voters being much more likely to turn out (more so than others groups) in a general election or just a 2017 one off etc.
First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
Making the calculations though if your closest rival is a Conservative and his vote is also getting split off you are still okay as long as you don't lose your majority plus whatever he loses. Unless UKIP or the Brexit party really step up then most leave constituencies with Labour MPs are fights against the Tories.
But most seats won't have this amount of candidates taking protest votes off both main parties. Also, just look at the pool of Westminster parties trying to fight it out and win the Remain vote now compared to the effective options other than the Conservatives who will really be trying to win the Leave vote? As I said, if I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
But in a week that has seen uber Brexiteer Conservatives cutting up their membership cards & threatening not to vote Conservative again, there is the same stark message for them that now faces the ERG in Westminster over May's Withdrawal Agreement. When Ukip voters switched to the Conservatives in the 2015 GE, they finally got their EU Referendum, but when the 2017 GE produced Hung Parliament, the writing was on the wall when it came to May's Government being able to deliver on clean cut Brexit they wanted. So basically, nothing less than a strong Conservative majority at the next GE is ever going to see Brexit cross the line in the future.
As I have posted regularly on twitter, the ERG have consistently proved that they collectively lack any political astuteness when it comes to pushing their political agenda. I still find it incredible that the ERG didn't recognise that the DUP were never ever as wedded to delivering on a Brexit deal as they were, the clue really was in the EU Ref result in NI. Basically, no amount of cutting up your Conservative membership cards, voting for minor Brexit parties or voting for an Uber Brexiteer Conservative Leader who turns off most broad church Conservatives is ever going to deliver on Brexit.
First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
Making the calculations though if your closest rival is a Conservative and his vote is also getting split off you are still okay as long as you don't lose your majority plus whatever he loses. Unless UKIP or the Brexit party really step up then most leave constituencies with Labour MPs are fights against the Tories.
But most seats won't have this amount of candidates taking protest votes off both main parties. Also, just look at the pool of Westminster parties trying to fight it out and win the Remain vote now compared to the effective options other than the Conservatives who will really be trying to win the Leave vote? As I said, if I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
UKIP and the Brexit party. Quantity doesn't really matter, it just means they have more pissed off leavers to themselves.
But in a week that has seen uber Brexiteer Conservatives cutting up their membership cards & threatening not to vote Conservative again, there is the same stark message for them that now faces the ERG in Westminster over May's Withdrawal Agreement. When Ukip voters switched to the Conservatives in the 2015 GE, they finally got their EU Referendum, but when the 2017 GE produced Hung Parliament, the writing was on the wall when it came to May's Government being able to deliver on clean cut Brexit they wanted. So basically, nothing less than a strong Conservative majority at the next GE is ever going to see Brexit cross the line in the future.
So leavers will make the calculation they have to vote for the major party and do so but remainers won't?
And this after many leavers did make the above calculation and have been annoyed at the Conservatives attempts at Brexit, they will then all plus the ones who didn't last time give them their votes?
First reactions to the Newport by-election on both turnout & the result. If I was a Conservative MP who does not have a comfortable majority, I would be worried. But if I was a Labour MP outside London and without a comfortable majority in strong Leave constituency, I would be very worried indeed.
Making the calculations though if your closest rival is a Conservative and his vote is also getting split off you are still okay as long as you don't lose your majority plus whatever he loses. Unless UKIP or the Brexit party really step up then most leave constituencies with Labour MPs are fights against the Tories.
UKIP and the Brexit party. Quantity doesn't really matter, it just means they have more pissed off leavers to themselves.
But in a week that has seen uber Brexiteer Conservatives cutting up their membership cards & threatening not to vote Conservative again, there is the same stark message for them that now faces the ERG in Westminster over May's Withdrawal Agreement. When Ukip voters switched to the Conservatives in the 2015 GE, they finally got their EU Referendum, but when the 2017 GE produced Hung Parliament, the writing was on the wall when it came to May's Government being able to deliver on clean cut Brexit they wanted. So basically, nothing less than a strong Conservative majority at the next GE is ever going to see Brexit cross the line in the future.
So leavers will make the calculation they have to vote for the major party and do so but remainers won't?
And this after many leavers did make the above calculation and have been annoyed at the Conservatives attempts at Brexit, they will then all plus the ones who didn't last time give them their votes?
Right now, you have a range of centre left parties like the Greens, SNP, Libdems, Tiggers & Labour party already established in Westminster who will all be trying to pitch for all those centre left Remain voters in various constituencies. Don't underestimate the fact that some of those parties have been far clearer on their desire for either another EU Ref or to revoke Article 50 altogether than Corbyn's Labour party. Corbyn has been trying to sit on the fence over Brexit because Lab have so many heartland leave constituencies vs so many London Remain constituencies while playing party politics, the voters are picking up on this disingenuous position.
On the other hand, you have only one centre right party still trying to pitch for leave voters at the next GE and who is currently in any position to deliver, that is the Conservatives. The only three MPs that Ukip ever managed to achieve at Westminster were one indirect, and two direct defections from the Conservative party.
So leavers will make the calculation they have to vote for the major party and do so but remainers won't?
And this after many leavers did make the above calculation and have been annoyed at the Conservatives attempts at Brexit, they will then all plus the ones who didn't last time give them their votes?
Right now, you have a range of centre left parties like the Greens, SNP, Libdems, Tiggers & Labour party already established in Westminster who will all be trying to pitch for all those centre left Remain voters in various constituencies. Don't underestimate the fact that some of those parties have been far clearer on their desire for either another EU Ref or to revoke Article 50 altogether than Corbyn's Labour party. Corbyn has been trying to sit on the fence over Brexit because Lab have so many heartland leave constituencies vs so many London Remain constituencies while playing party politics, the voters are picking up on this disingenuous position.
On the other hand, you have only one centre right party still trying to pitch for leave voters at the next GE and who is currently in any position to deliver, that is the Conservatives. The only three MPs that Ukip ever managed to achieve at Westminster were one indirect, and two direct defections from the Conservative party.
Those parties you list are 'competitive' (being generous and calling the tiggers competitive in all their own seats) in about what 50-60* seats?
Voting for them in the vast majority of seats will just as much of a wasted vote as Brexit party or UKIP.
*Just noticed SNP listed there but as we saw in the last election Scotland seems to be much more about independence or not. The Conservatives won remain seats last election, they are still fighting about a different referendum up North (or it seems to take precedence anyway)
I get the impression the Conservatives have pissed off leavers more than Labour have pissed off remainers. Also if you look at the reasons people gave for voting in 2017 election then Brexit featured very highly in Conservative reasons for voting but very low in Labours.
Comments
Seems the BBC talking heads spin is that Labour lost votes to the Greens, LDs and Plaid - because voters are protesting about their lack of clarity on a second referendum. Or perhaps Labour and Tory supporters just didn't turn out and the smaller party supporters were more motivated?
Bear in mind the turnout is vastly reduced so comparing like for like is hard, plus UKIP and Neil Hamilton are a nasty anti-Islam party now rather than an anti-EU one.
If they are to stand in UK wide elections in 7 weeks and get a slate of candidates on the regional lists they probably need to get a move on! Nigel is a bit busy doing his phone in show perhaps?
Edit: Had him down as maybe mid 30's (from various political references) but google isn't helping me here.
Edit 2: Not that you necessarily are old but I have an image of a 70 year old man asking an almost middle aged man if he's left school yet and if he is even legally old enough to do what he's doing...
But in a week that has seen uber Brexiteer Conservatives cutting up their membership cards & threatening not to vote Conservative again, there is the same stark message for them that now faces the ERG in Westminster over May's Withdrawal Agreement. When Ukip voters switched to the Conservatives in the 2015 GE, they finally got their EU Referendum, but when the 2017 GE produced Hung Parliament, the writing was on the wall when it came to May's Government being able to deliver on clean cut Brexit they wanted. So basically, nothing less than a strong Conservative majority at the next GE is ever going to see Brexit cross the line in the future.
As I have posted regularly on twitter, the ERG have consistently proved that they collectively lack any political astuteness when it comes to pushing their political agenda. I still find it incredible that the ERG didn't recognise that the DUP were never ever as wedded to delivering on a Brexit deal as they were, the clue really was in the EU Ref result in NI. Basically, no amount of cutting up your Conservative membership cards, voting for minor Brexit parties or voting for an Uber Brexiteer Conservative Leader who turns off most broad church Conservatives is ever going to deliver on Brexit.
So leavers will make the calculation they have to vote for the major party and do so but remainers won't?
And this after many leavers did make the above calculation and have been annoyed at the Conservatives attempts at Brexit, they will then all plus the ones who didn't last time give them their votes?
On the other hand, you have only one centre right party still trying to pitch for leave voters at the next GE and who is currently in any position to deliver, that is the Conservatives. The only three MPs that Ukip ever managed to achieve at Westminster were one indirect, and two direct defections from the Conservative party.
Voting for them in the vast majority of seats will just as much of a wasted vote as Brexit party or UKIP.
*Just noticed SNP listed there but as we saw in the last election Scotland seems to be much more about independence or not. The Conservatives won remain seats last election, they are still fighting about a different referendum up North (or it seems to take precedence anyway)
I get the impression the Conservatives have pissed off leavers more than Labour have pissed off remainers. Also if you look at the reasons people gave for voting in 2017 election then Brexit featured very highly in Conservative reasons for voting but very low in Labours.