politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Electio

Is cabinet still going on?

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Seems like YouTube might as well as banned Tommy Robinson.

https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1112930588342841344

I can’t see how this can possibly go wrong.

That risks making a martyr of him.

They have just confirmed what he bangs on about, that the establishment are trying to silence him etc etc etc.

Far better to let him publish, and let the internet pick up any horseshit he spouts (which if the internet is good at one thing, it is jumping on that bandwagon when somebody gets caught out).

The problem with that is the Internet becomes bubbles. The sane Internet might pick up on what he spouts, but the people who follow his sh*t might not pick up on that because they don't follow the right places (and the same goes for others as well).

I think there's a reasonable rule of thumb: if you'd get arrested for standing in the street and shouting something into a megaphone, you shouldn't expect a right to say it on open forums on the Internet. Though there are difficulties with that concept as well wrt territories.

It’s a reasonable analogy

The difference is YouTube isn’t arresting him for shouting something into a megaphone, they are preventing him from saying anything

If you get arrested for shouting things into a megaphone enough times on, say, Oxford Street, eventually you should just get banned from Oxford Street altogether. And possibly a bunch of other streets nearby, just in case. YouTube is a private company rather than a public space, which should make it simpler to ban people they don't want.

Actually I think this is a positive development generally. The problem we're having with the likes of YouTube and Facebook is that they have long insisted they are tech companies, not publishing/media companies, and therefore they have no responsibility for what people use their platforms to post. The recent trend has been towards forcing them to take more and more action to remove prohibited content quicker - in particular the recent New Zealand mosque attack, where they were criticised for allowing the gunman to post live footage - which is almost impossible to stop unless you require moderation for everything in real time. If we had similar rules in place social media companies as we do for the wider media (eg editors can't just hide behind their journalists if they post false accusations without checking them properly) then we'd be in a much better place.

Harris_Tweed said:

TGOHF said:

Harris_Tweed said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Macron and Varadkar press conference. Varadkar looking very worried

Perhaps he should be a bit more flexible - wouldn't have found himself in this mess.

He noticeably swallowed hard when he said no deal could happen on the 12th April

About 85% of Ireland's total EU freight trade goes via British ports...

Hasn't a (competent) EU version of Chris Grayling hasn't bought a load of ferry capacity on Rosslare-Cherbourg/Cork-Roscoff yet?

I note you assume the EU runs Irish policy.

That might be the reason for Brexit.

I said it deliberately, because I'd assume that if* Irish trade was the big stumbling block from the EU27 point of view to us leaving on WTO terms, that a careful cost-benefit analysis would be done on whether the EU wanted us farting around for another 18 months*, or whether they could get the Irish off the hook by doing stuff like that (and probably funding a new motorway network and ferry port longer-term to get round us).

(*In practice, there are other issues for them, and on balance they'd probably sooner have us in the tent pissing out. But I'm not sure that's a permanent state)

Of course in the event of revocation, it is likely that the Tory government would fall and the replacement be significantly more euro friendly. It may be very congenial to the EU27.

Endillion said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Seems like YouTube might as well as banned Tommy Robinson.

https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1112930588342841344

I can’t see how this can possibly go wrong.

That risks making a martyr of him.

They have just confirmed what he bangs on about, that the establishment are trying to silence him etc etc etc.

Far better to let him publish, and let the internet pick up any horseshit he spouts (which if the internet is good at one thing, it is jumping on that bandwagon when somebody gets caught out).

The problem with that is the Internet becomes bubbles. The sane Internet might pick up on what he spouts, but the people who follow his sh*t might not pick up on that because they don't follow the right places (and the same goes for others as well).

I think there's a reasonable rule of thumb: if you'd get arrested for standing in the street and shouting something into a megaphone, you shouldn't expect a right to say it on open forums on the Internet. Though there are difficulties with that concept as well wrt territories.

It’s a reasonable analogy

The difference is YouTube isn’t arresting him for shouting something into a megaphone, they are preventing him from saying anything

If you get arrested for shouting things into a megaphone enough times on, say, Oxford Street, eventually you should just get banned from Oxford Street altogether. And possibly a bunch of other streets nearby, just in case. YouTube is a private company rather than a public space, which should make it simpler to ban people they don't want.

Actually I think this is a positive development generally. The problem we're having with the likes of YouTube and Facebook is that they have long insisted they are tech companies, not publishing/media companies, and therefore they have no responsibility for what people use their platforms to post. The recent trend has been towards forcing them to take more and more action to remove prohibited content quicker - in particular the recent New Zealand mosque attack, where they were criticised for allowing the gunman to post live footage - which is almost impossible to stop unless you require moderation for everything in real time. If we had similar rules in place social media companies as we do for the wider media (eg editors can't just hide behind their journalists if they post false accusations without checking them properly) then we'd be in a much better place.

This. So much this.

Foxy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

TGOHF said:

Harris_Tweed said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Macron and Varadkar press conference. Varadkar looking very worried

Perhaps he should be a bit more flexible - wouldn't have found himself in this mess.

He noticeably swallowed hard when he said no deal could happen on the 12th April

About 85% of Ireland's total EU freight trade goes via British ports...

Hasn't a (competent) EU version of Chris Grayling hasn't bought a load of ferry capacity on Rosslare-Cherbourg/Cork-Roscoff yet?

I note you assume the EU runs Irish policy.

That might be the reason for Brexit.

I said it deliberately, because I'd assume that if* Irish trade was the big stumbling block from the EU27 point of view to us leaving on WTO terms, that a careful cost-benefit analysis would be done on whether the EU wanted us farting around for another 18 months*, or whether they could get the Irish off the hook by doing stuff like that (and probably funding a new motorway network and ferry port longer-term to get round us).

(*In practice, there are other issues for them, and on balance they'd probably sooner have us in the tent pissing out. But I'm not sure that's a permanent state)

Of course in the event of revocation, it is likely that the Tory government would fall and the replacement be significantly more euro friendly. It may be very congenial to the EU27.

Well, yes. That is part of the motivation of those who want Theresa May to revoke A50, or whip the payroll vote in favour of a second referendum.

DanSmith said:

Is cabinet still going on?

Yes

TGOHF said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/henrynewman/status/1113084183373582336?s=21

Well quite - why don't they ask for a few billion in return for backstop flexibility ?

The Uk would happily pay up to move on..

but for what?

If they are worried about the Uk reneging re the backstop - then ask for a deposit of £10Bn or so as penalty.

It's how the business world would deal with damages.

Who could we put forward to supply references? Norway and Iceland?

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re Yugoslavia...it wasn't it will never happen there, it was when will it happen there.

It's a war that still has repercussions, plenty of ISIS/Al Qaeda top command were radicalised and blooded in the conflict.

Indeed. And many of the wilder branches of the Online Far Right have much admiration for some Serbian commanders.

At the time, they were all in favour of Croatia. I remember seeing an interview with a neo-Nazi who went out to fight for the Croats. He was like a character from a Mad Max film, with dark glasses, a leather overcoat, cross-belts of ammunition over his shoulders and holding a machete, and explaining how much he enjoyed killing people.

ERG supporter now, I take it?

SouthamObserver said:

If you only read the UK media you would not know that Emmanuel Macron is by far the most popular leader in France:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113093175378415621

Meanwhile, on a theoretical French version of this site, a poster called CalaisObservateur notes that if you only read the French media, you'd never know that Theresa May is by far the most popular politician in the UK.

(Can't find a link, but I think this result keeps getting confirmed by various surveys.)

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Harris_Tweed said:

TGOHF said:

Harris_Tweed said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Macron and Varadkar press conference. Varadkar looking very worried

Perhaps he should be a bit more flexible - wouldn't have found himself in this mess.

He noticeably swallowed hard when he said no deal could happen on the 12th April

About 85% of Ireland's total EU freight trade goes via British ports...

Hasn't a (competent) EU version of Chris Grayling hasn't bought a load of ferry capacity on Rosslare-Cherbourg/Cork-Roscoff yet?

I note you assume the EU runs Irish policy.

That might be the reason for Brexit.

I said it deliberately, because I'd assume that if* Irish trade was the big stumbling block from the EU27 point of view to us leaving on WTO terms, that a careful cost-benefit analysis would be done on whether the EU wanted us farting around for another 18 months*, or whether they could get the Irish off the hook by doing stuff like that (and probably funding a new motorway network and ferry port longer-term to get round us).

(*In practice, there are other issues for them, and on balance they'd probably sooner have us in the tent pissing out. But I'm not sure that's a permanent state)

Of course in the event of revocation, it is likely that the Tory government would fall and the replacement be significantly more euro friendly. It may be very congenial to the EU27.

Well, yes. That is part of the motivation of those who want Theresa May to revoke A50, or whip the payroll vote in favour of a second referendum.

Sure, but the reality is that if we do stay, or extend then it is highly unlikely to be a eurosceptic government that the EU27 are dealing with.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well that didn't go as planned....however much they try and spin it.

An independent coffee chain said it has seen sales fall by £250,000 since it banned single use cups last summer.

"We have lost around 25% of our takeaway coffee sales"

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-47629820

That is a significant drop - £11k per year per branch. Assuming a 6 day trading week, that is just under £40 per day per branch. Less if they trade 7 days per week.

So the headline figures look worse than when you break it down.

DanSmith said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DanSmith said:

Is cabinet still going on?

Yes

Blimey.

So instead of being cut from 5 hours as reported this morning it's actually gone on even longer.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Perhaps the PM is beta-testing the 'lock them in the room until they make an effing decision' approach, prior to full-scale rollout later in the week.

I've long been an advocate for this method wrt Brexit votes in the commons - admittedly my version has the building set on fire to provide a little time incentive.

2 "malicious obstructions" placed on rail lines. Police say "Brexit related"
?????

Foxy said:

brokenwheel said:

SouthamObserver said:

If you only read the UK media you would not know that Emmanuel Macron is by far the most popular leader in France:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1113093175378415621

You do realise Harris polls are a significant outlier? Look at the other polling companies.

He's consistently around 70% disapproval.

That is perfectly compatible. He is pretty nailed on to make the second round, and most likely win it.

But disingenuous, the point is overall he's running 10 points lower than the Harris poll, so not doing much better than some of the others.

He isn't popular, it's just no one is popular outside their base.

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1113098779639668737

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Norman Lamb on about leaving the LDs on R5L now.
We're gonna have more independents than party ,members soon at this rate.

Why is he leaving?

Because he's willing to compromise to a soft Brexit.

dixiedean said:

2 "malicious obstructions" placed on rail lines. Police say "Brexit related"
?????

Leavers on the line?

Mr Dancer and Mr F, didn't say he had decided, but was fed up with opposing everything. Wasn't paying full attention at the start (maybe I should apply to be an MP).
And, yes, surprising.

TGOHF said:

dixiedean said:

2 "malicious obstructions" placed on rail lines. Police say "Brexit related"
?????

Remainer MPs moving on from being road blocks ?

Police probe two 'pro-Brexit' sabotage attempts to disrupt rail network as devices are found clipped to tracks with note threatening to 'bring this country to its knees' if Britain doesn't leave EU

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6877857/Police-investigate-two-devices-planted-railway-lines-network-sabotage-bid-related-Brexit.html

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dean, that seems quite surprising. Why's Lamb leaving?

Hope his health is improving.

https://twitter.com/andrewpolitics/status/1112831233883607045

LDs are a mirror image of the ERG equally intransigent and unwilling to compromise- Norman Lamb

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DanSmith said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DanSmith said:

Is cabinet still going on?

Yes

Blimey.

Perhaps the PM is beta-testing the 'lock them in the room until they make an effing decision' approach, prior to full-scale rollout later in the week.

The one thing we know is that there is at least one bunch of them in there threatening to resign when they come out.

They are arguing over who gets to resign first.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dean, that seems quite surprising. Why's Lamb leaving?

Hope his health is improving.

https://twitter.com/andrewpolitics/status/1112831233883607045

I too had to resign my membership over Brexit differences. #JesuisStephenLloyd

dixiedean said:

2 "malicious obstructions" placed on rail lines. Police say "Brexit related"
?????

Well its a change from leaves on the line and the wrong kind of snow...

oxfordsimon said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well that didn't go as planned....however much they try and spin it.

An independent coffee chain said it has seen sales fall by £250,000 since it banned single use cups last summer.

"We have lost around 25% of our takeaway coffee sales"

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-47629820

That is a significant drop - £11k per year per branch. Assuming a 6 day trading week, that is just under £40 per day per branch. Less if they trade 7 days per week.

So the headline figures look worse than when you break it down.

If their turnover is £750k for 21 branches we have to assume they aren't open all the time.

£750k/21/300 trading days per year = £120 per day.

They are only talking about their takeaway coffee business. Not the food offering or the drink in offering. So they are only presenting a particular slice of the picture.

It clearly has had an effect on their trade - but it is £40 per branch per day - some of which might be down factors other than the cup ban.

Right, you'll see I editted my last post.

it does rather underline the point that a 25% fall in takeaway coffee sales - in exchange for a media bonanza that say increases other sales 10% - might easily be worth it.

If Mrs May cares more than anything about holding the Tory party together, maybe they will never come out of that room?

MarqueeMark said:

oxfordsimon said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Norman Lamb on about leaving the LDs on R5L now.
We're gonna have more independents than party ,members soon at this rate.

Why is he leaving?

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/north-norfolk-mp-norman-lamb-could-resign-the-whip-over-brexit-votes-1-5973558

"Mr Lamb, a senior MP in the Commons, voted in favour of a customs union and the common market 2.0 proposal, saying that those options could then be put to a confirmatory referendum.

But he was the only Liberal Democrat to do so."

Pretty much 10% of the Parliamentary numbers - so significant enough!

IanB2 said:

If Mrs May cares more than anything about holding the Tory party together, maybe they will never come out of that room?

Well its one way of running down the clock.

GIN1138 said:

They'll have to send in emergency supplies if this Cabinet meeting goes on much longer...

Pretty sure there’s been papal conclaves shorter than this.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

oxfordsimon said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well that didn't go as planned....however much they try and spin it.

An independent coffee chain said it has seen sales fall by £250,000 since it banned single use cups last summer.

"We have lost around 25% of our takeaway coffee sales"

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-47629820

That is a significant drop - £11k per year per branch. Assuming a 6 day trading week, that is just under £40 per day per branch. Less if they trade 7 days per week.

So the headline figures look worse than when you break it down.

If their turnover is £750k for 21 branches we have to assume they aren't open all the time.

£750k/21/300 trading days per year = £120 per day.

They are only talking about their takeaway coffee business. Not the food offering or the drink in offering. So they are only presenting a particular slice of the picture.

It clearly has had an effect on their trade - but it is £40 per branch per day - some of which might be down factors other than the cup ban.

Right, you'll see I editted my last post.

it does rather underline the point that a 25% fall in takeaway coffee sales - in exchange for a media bonanza that say increases other sales 10% - might easily be worth it.

Your figures seem to indicate that takeaway coffee was only 5% of their turnover - rather puts things into a better perspective - thanks for doing the digging.

Nice to see the BBC giving them a free advert.

Slackbladder said:

8 hour cabinet means something must be up. Presumably this is the 'normal' cabinet as opposed to the political one?

There was a Political Cabinet meeting first and then a Regular one to follow from what was said yesterday

oxfordsimon said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

oxfordsimon said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well that didn't go as planned....however much they try and spin it.

An independent coffee chain said it has seen sales fall by £250,000 since it banned single use cups last summer.

"We have lost around 25% of our takeaway coffee sales"

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-47629820

That is a significant drop - £11k per year per branch. Assuming a 6 day trading week, that is just under £40 per day per branch. Less if they trade 7 days per week.

So the headline figures look worse than when you break it down.

If their turnover is £750k for 21 branches we have to assume they aren't open all the time.

£750k/21/300 trading days per year = £120 per day.

They are only talking about their takeaway coffee business. Not the food offering or the drink in offering. So they are only presenting a particular slice of the picture.

It clearly has had an effect on their trade - but it is £40 per branch per day - some of which might be down factors other than the cup ban.

Right, you'll see I editted my last post.

it does rather underline the point that a 25% fall in takeaway coffee sales - in exchange for a media bonanza that say increases other sales 10% - might easily be worth it.

Your figures seem to indicate that takeaway coffee was only 5% of their turnover - rather puts things into a better perspective - thanks for doing the digging.

Nice to see the BBC giving them a free advert.

They are quite a nice outlet actually...quite nice for a mid morning brunch.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

GIN1138 said:

They'll have to send in emergency supplies if this Cabinet meeting goes on much longer...

at what point does it become a hostage situation?

Perhaps they are taking a leaf out of Julian Assange's playbook...

Or the ERG superglued the locks...

Slackbladder said:

8 hour cabinet means something must be up. Presumably this is the 'normal' cabinet as opposed to the political one?

There's a lot of No Deal planning to catch up on.....

Slackbladder said:

8 hour cabinet means something must be up. Presumably this is the 'normal' cabinet as opposed to the political one?

The Leavers are throwing apples at the Remainers. The Remainers are throwing oranges at the Leavers.

They'll come out in a while and announce that talks have been tough but fruitful.

AlastairMeeks said:

Slackbladder said:

8 hour cabinet means something must be up. Presumably this is the 'normal' cabinet as opposed to the political one?

The Leavers are throwing apples at the Remainers. The Remainers are throwing oranges at the Leavers.

They'll come out in a while and announce that talks have been tough but fruitful.

Very good Alastair. We need light relief

AlastairMeeks said:

Slackbladder said:

8 hour cabinet means something must be up. Presumably this is the 'normal' cabinet as opposed to the political one?

The Leavers are throwing apples at the Remainers. The Remainers are throwing oranges at the Leavers.

They'll come out in a while and announce that talks have been tough but fruitful.

Please God no, anything but such vapidity.

From them, not you I hasten to add.

MikeL said:

It's been a curious feature of PB for the last 15 years that posters on PB always predict an early GE.

There must have been many hundreds of posts in the last few weeks all predicting an early / imminent GE - and not one single post predicting there won't be an early GE.

Yet the actual odds on a 2019 GE currently show it as odds against. And that's for the whole of 2019.

Now I don't know what will happen - and of course there may well be a 2019 GE. But's an interesting example of how minds work - I think it's just another example of people posting what they want to happen / what they think "should" happen - and then dressing it up as a prediction.

I certainly WANT a General Election. I love them. I stay up all night. Throw pillows at the telly. Eat pizza. They're good fun.

Now, do I predict a route to a General Election - I can certainly see one, and not unrealistic given the political atmosphere we live in.

In 2010, I was rather upset when the Election weekend was over, as I believed it'd be another five years before the next election. I was right. In 2015, I thought it would be another five years, though I did think "Well, at least there is the referendum to look forward to."

Today, I struggle to see how a divided, minority administration, in the middle of the biggest political crisis since 1945 and with only 313 out of the 642 attending MPs can survive another three years. Things change by the day at the moment, from Bercow blocking votes, to members of the Government advocating a policy before voting against it, to factions (and I mean factionS) within the governing party advocating completely polar opposites of government policy.

I don't think it unreasonable to expect a General Election sometime this year.

Disturbing details of the plot to killl MP Rosie Cooper:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-44798649

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1113104980997795848

Rumbly in tumblies....

Freggles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

dixiedean said:

2 "malicious obstructions" placed on rail lines. Police say "Brexit related"
?????

Remainer MPs moving on from being road blocks ?

Police probe two 'pro-Brexit' sabotage attempts to disrupt rail network as devices are found clipped to tracks with note threatening to 'bring this country to its knees' if Britain doesn't leave EU

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6877857/Police-investigate-two-devices-planted-railway-lines-network-sabotage-bid-related-Brexit.html

False Flag.

Proof?

No true leaver would try to disrupt the normal functioning of the country in that way. They only do so by sabotaging our trading setup.

SandyRentool said:

Slackbladder said:

8 hour cabinet means something must be up. Presumably this is the 'normal' cabinet as opposed to the political one?

Marathon strip poker session.

Brexiteers thought they held all the cards but now are left exposed, trying to negotiate a Manthong Compromise to act as a fig leaf.

of Europes top 10 CO2 polluters, 7 are German

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47783992

Germany where the rules are for other people

FrancisUrquhart said:

First it was the vegan sausage roll, now the BK Whopper...

Fast food chain Burger King says it will trial a new plant-based alternative to its meat burgers.

The Impossible Whopper is made with a type of soybean root called heme, which gives the impression of bleeding, getting close to simulating real meat.

https://news.sky.com/story/burger-king-launches-plant-based-impossible-whopper-11682142

They could pretend it’s real beef and call it the Utter Whopper...

Which would come in handy for those White House burger feasts.