politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Electio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TIG becomes Change UK in time for the possible Euro Elections
One of he potentially big developments that came out at the end of last week was the decision by the Independent Group to seek registration as an official party under the name of Change UK.
Comments
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If we have Euro Elections, they'll need to form a joint slate with the Lib Dems, otherwise, there's a risk that each party will slip below the threshold needed to elect an MEP in any particular region.
BTW, it's Brecon & Radnor, not Brechin.0 -
Given that corporate donors are keeping their hands in their pockets, will any party want to splurge on Euro elections if they think we will be out of there in three to nine months anyway?0
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It would have made sense for MPs to have no part in Brexit discussions, they only obstruct them. Leave them to pad out their expenses claims - something they're good at.0
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"What is really interesting is what the relationship Change UK will have with the Lib Dems"
Are both ultimately hoping to take over the other? A new party could quite like to grab the apparatus and activist base of an existing one, whereas the incumbents might be up for nipping a rival for their space in the bud and try grafting some of their freshness and political momentum.
A face-off with a test of strength might not be something to shy away from if their leadership is confident they will gain an advantage over the other. And a "lost cause" in which they can point to a seat that would have been won other than for their internecine squabbling would be good ammunition to press for a merger/takeover.
Not the way things would work in an ideal world, but anyone who decides to stand down to support the others at this early stage in Change's existence, might as well give up and accept inevitable takeover already. (As SeanF says, a joint slate might make sense for the Euros. But for a by-election?)0 -
I guess they get high up the ballot paper, but below Nigel Farage's Brexit Party.0
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Good name
They might as well use whilst they can
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/change-org-to-challenge-new-political-party-over-use-of-change-uk-name/0 -
Curse of new thread.
Am beginning to think passing TMs Deal may turn out to be the worst possible result for the government. All other scenarios, and blame can be deflected. Especially, as the government may well fall, leaving another to deal with the fall out. In that one, you still have a fractured, resentful Party, still in power, with no one else to shoulder the responsibility.
And no solution to the fundamental problem...we don't know what future relationship we want.0 -
Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party0 -
As reported on Guido (sorry):
https://www.kent.house/uk-petition-article-50-hijacked-by-bots/
As I thought, it isn't particularly hard. The only surprise is that it took them as long as 3 hours...0 -
Can't wait for them to merge into CUKLD.MyBurningEars said:"What is really interesting is what the relationship Change UK will have with the Lib Dems"
Are both ultimately hoping to take over the other? A new party could quite like to grab the apparatus and activist base of an existing one, whereas the incumbents might be up for nipping a rival for their space in the bud and try grafting some of their freshness and political momentum.
A face-off with a test of strength might not be something to shy away from if their leadership is confident they will gain an advantage over the other. And a "lost cause" in which they can point to a seat that would have been won other than for their internecine squabbling would be good ammunition to press for a merger/takeover.
Not the way things would work in an ideal world, but anyone who decides to stand down to support the others at this early stage in Change's existence, might as well give up and accept inevitable takeover already. (As SeanF says, a joint slate might make sense for the Euros. But for a by-election?)0 -
I think it might be the political status quo? Maybe? You should be in favour as someone who often rails against the "establishment". Not sure whether they have quite the number of old- Etonians to claim to be as anti-Establishment as, say, the ERG or supporters of the Blond Philanderer.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party0 -
We have to get to European elections first ie the Commons votes for it and the EU agrees to it and a lengthy extension however if Letwin and Cooper's proposed new bill to prevent the Government from implementing a No Deal Brexit passes this week that becomes more likely and TIG will likely benefit with Remainers and Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIP with Leavers from the PR system used for the EU elections0
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Everything must change so everything can stay the same.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
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That is my impression too.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
They are another Remain Party (like the LDs)
They are anti Corbyn (like most people)
Some of them have a real persona animus towards Theresa May
But they have not articulated a single positive thing since they came together into this rag bag of egos and non-entities
They haven't said what they want to change or how they will go about changing it
They signify nothing as far as I am concerned0 -
I'd say they want to restore the political status quo of the mid 2000's.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party0 -
Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .0 -
They want to change the perception of the status quo.oxfordsimon said:
That is my impression too.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
They are another Remain Party (like the LDs)
They are anti Corbyn (like most people)
Some of them have a real persona animus towards Theresa May
But they have not articulated a single positive thing since they came together into this rag bag of egos and non-entities
They haven't said what they want to change or how they will go about changing it
They signify nothing as far as I am concerned
Plus also the normal Blairite changes for the little people - NHS charges, parental fines if your child picks their nose, etc - but trebles all round for the upper middle class upwards.0 -
I think of the formation of CUK as the political system coughing up a hairball. An unedifying sight, but it's good to get it out of the system.oxfordsimon said:
That is my impression too.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
They are another Remain Party (like the LDs)
They are anti Corbyn (like most people)
Some of them have a real persona animus towards Theresa May
But they have not articulated a single positive thing since they came together into this rag bag of egos and non-entities
They haven't said what they want to change or how they will go about changing it
They signify nothing as far as I am concerned0 -
Perhaps they should change their name to something like conservatives?Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
After all, we know that there is nothing that a true Briton dislikes more than change, as all change is for the worse.0 -
Change what? They're just middle of the road, bland rejects from the two main parties of the UK. The only thing that unites them is their hope that we remain in the EU. We don't need more of the same.
I'm going to vote for the craziest shithouse rat on the ballot paper if we have to have elections.0 -
They can, but if they approve the WA on its own, the parliamentary arithmetic would then lead to the PD passing unchanged. Clear enough for you?Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
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Seems to me that the government will fall in any case. Either May will put her deal again and lose again or, more likely, she will be forced to ask for a long extension for either a referendum or a general election. And that will be her last act as PM.dixiedean said:Curse of new thread.
Am beginning to think passing TMs Deal may turn out to be the worst possible result for the government. All other scenarios, and blame can be deflected. Especially, as the government may well fall, leaving another to deal with the fall out. In that one, you still have a fractured, resentful Party, still in power, with no one else to shoulder the responsibility.
And no solution to the fundamental problem...we don't know what future relationship we want.0 -
LOLNigel_Foremain said:
Not sure whether they have quite the number of old- Etonians to claim to be as anti-Establishment as, say, the ERG or supporters of the Blond Philanderer.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party0 -
Well they certainly seem to be creating quite a bit of upset among those with traditional loyalties to the two main parties!OblitusSumMe said:
They want to change the perception of the status quo.oxfordsimon said:
That is my impression too.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
They are another Remain Party (like the LDs)
They are anti Corbyn (like most people)
Some of them have a real persona animus towards Theresa May
But they have not articulated a single positive thing since they came together into this rag bag of egos and non-entities
They haven't said what they want to change or how they will go about changing it
They signify nothing as far as I am concerned
Plus also the normal Blairite changes for the little people - NHS charges, parental fines if your child picks their nose, etc - but trebles all round for the upper middle class upwards.0 -
Because anything that TM proposes has to be bad - because she is an evil Tory. Only the righteous Jeremy can propose something that is worthy of being adopted because everything he thinks is perfect and pure.Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamb0 -
these people are the establishment as far as I can see.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it might be the political status quo? Maybe? You should be in favour as someone who often rails against the "establishment". Not sure whether they have quite the number of old- Etonians to claim to be as anti-Establishment as, say, the ERG or supporters of the Blond Philanderer.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
But its not about people its about the policies, from what I have seen to date they want to pick up from whgere we left off in 2016. Something I view as wishful thinking.
On Europe I will be intrigued to see what their view is -will they go the whole hog and stand on integration, the euro and Schengen or will they go for the same old half in half out shtick the UK has pursued for years ?0 -
I think there is room for a new part - but I don't think it's TIG.0
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It is that TM and the Tories cannot be trusted with the PD, indeed a number have intentions to rip it up the next day.oxfordsimon said:
Because anything that TM proposes has to be bad - because she is an evil Tory. Only the righteous Jeremy can propose something that is worthy of being adopted because everything he thinks is perfect and pure.Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamb0 -
Ditto. I'll vote for the party made up of people who are madder than Mad Jack McMad.twistedfirestopper3 said:Change what? They're just middle of the road, bland rejects from the two main parties of the UK. The only thing that unites them is their hope that we remain in the EU. We don't need more of the same.
I'm going to vote for the craziest shithouse rat on the ballot paper if we have to have elections.0 -
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
I imagine Cobyn would prefer a GEHYUFD said:
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
I wanted to change my icon to the OTHER Change UK but it turns out they don't have much of a logo.0
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Lady Hermon, Tony Woodock, and Ivan Lewis would likely vote with the government on a VONC, and I expect other independents would abstain. And, you need to knock off the Deputy Speakers.Danny565 said:0 -
Takes some convoluted logic for Labour, whose policy is WA+CU (or WA+SM yesterday apparently), to vote against WA ......... and thus we no-deal instead.Foxy said:
It is that TM and the Tories cannot be trusted with the PD, indeed a number have intentions to rip it up the next day.
How can Labour MPs possibly justify that? It's now end of the line, with two choices. Parliamentary games from now on will have consequences.
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This isn't about the PD - it is about the WA. Something that Starmer said he supported - until given the opportunity to vote on it alone when he opposed it.Foxy said:
It is that TM and the Tories cannot be trusted with the PD, indeed a number have intentions to rip it up the next day.oxfordsimon said:
Because anything that TM proposes has to be bad - because she is an evil Tory. Only the righteous Jeremy can propose something that is worthy of being adopted because everything he thinks is perfect and pure.Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamb
The left hand doesn't know or understand what the Left Hand is doing.0 -
The Electoral Commission typically take many weeks to register a political party and they'd miss the nominations deadline for the EU elections as a result.
No doubt, the TIGs will be given preferential treatment though.0 -
I think it is clear that they are playing party political games with people's jobs and businesses.Stereotomy said:
They can, but if they approve the WA on its own, the parliamentary arithmetic would then lead to the PD passing unchanged. Clear enough for you?Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
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On topic:-
We are aware that the Cuk Tiggers are going nowhere in the polls, right? Their average during March was 6%, with one poll putting them as low as 2%.
Far from challenging the big two, it's not even clear they would get more votes than the Greens or Ukip in any election.0 -
He needs the TIGs and the rest to pass a confidence vote. Tigs abstaining is enough to shoot him down along with the former labour indies he royally pissed offHYUFD said:
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
Because if WA passes TM goes and we likely get a FM as next PM.Andrew said:
Takes some convoluted logic for Labour, whose policy is WA+CU (or WA+SM yesterday apparently), to vote against WA ......... and thus we no-deal instead.Foxy said:
It is that TM and the Tories cannot be trusted with the PD, indeed a number have intentions to rip it up the next day.
How can Labour MPs possibly justify that? It's now end of the line, with two choices. Parliamentary games from now on will have consequences.0 -
probably, well have to go through the whole merger nonsense again, they would have been safer just getting Vince to stand down and electing a new leader from a wider panel of MPs.Foxy said:
Tiggers should just have defected to the LDs.TGOHF said:I think there is room for a new part - but I don't think it's TIG.
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It's obvious that TIG and the LibDems need to have an electoral agreement. So should UKIP and Brexit party - but could they?HYUFD said:We have to get to European elections first ie the Commons votes for it and the EU agrees to it and a lengthy extension however if Letwin and Cooper's proposed new bill to prevent the Government from implementing a No Deal Brexit passes this week that becomes more likely and TIG will likely benefit with Remainers and Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIP with Leavers from the PR system used for the EU elections
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FM = fking moron ?TOPPING said:
Because if WA passes TM goes and we likely get a FM as next PM.Andrew said:
Takes some convoluted logic for Labour, whose policy is WA+CU (or WA+SM yesterday apparently), to vote against WA ......... and thus we no-deal instead.Foxy said:
It is that TM and the Tories cannot be trusted with the PD, indeed a number have intentions to rip it up the next day.
How can Labour MPs possibly justify that? It's now end of the line, with two choices. Parliamentary games from now on will have consequences.0 -
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Yes that, and the Pro-Europeanism, are definite pluses, bright rays of sunshine in our dreary politics.Nigel_Foremain said:
Well they certainly seem to be creating quite a bit of upset among those with traditional loyalties to the two main parties!OblitusSumMe said:
They want to change the perception of the status quo.oxfordsimon said:
That is my impression too.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
They are another Remain Party (like the LDs)
They are anti Corbyn (like most people)
Some of them have a real persona animus towards Theresa May
But they have not articulated a single positive thing since they came together into this rag bag of egos and non-entities
They haven't said what they want to change or how they will go about changing it
They signify nothing as far as I am concerned
Plus also the normal Blairite changes for the little people - NHS charges, parental fines if your child picks their nose, etc - but trebles all round for the upper middle class upwards.
The rest of their programme can do one as far as I can tell.0 -
Well the ERG probably want to pick up where we left off in 1945, so I think I prefer the slightly more up to date approach of 2016.Alanbrooke said:
these people are the establishment as far as I can see.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it might be the political status quo? Maybe? You should be in favour as someone who often rails against the "establishment". Not sure whether they have quite the number of old- Etonians to claim to be as anti-Establishment as, say, the ERG or supporters of the Blond Philanderer.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
But its not about people its about the policies, from what I have seen to date they want to pick up from whgere we left off in 2016. Something I view as wishful thinking.
On Europe I will be intrigued to see what their view is -will they go the whole hog and stand on integration, the euro and Schengen or will they go for the same old half in half out shtick the UK has pursued for years ?
Sorry to disagree old bean, but "the Establishment", if such a thing really exists, is very much about people. Boris Johnson is a classic example of an establishment figure doing contortions of mendacity to appeal to any group that might enable him to have his sweaty, podgy hands on the levers of power.
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Hm, I think what you meant was "Oh, right, that makes sense and in retrospect is actually very obvious. Thanks, Stereotomy!"Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it is clear that they are playing party political games with people's jobs and businesses.Stereotomy said:
They can, but if they approve the WA on its own, the parliamentary arithmetic would then lead to the PD passing unchanged. Clear enough for you?Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
Otherwise, I'd be forced to conclude that you really weren't asking your question in good faith at all, and actually it was a pretty pathetic attempt at spin by playing dumb about why tactically voting through the WA would run totally counter to Labour's goal of changing the PD. And I'd hate to think ill of you!0 -
lol, you seem to think I support the ERG or Boris, I dont.Nigel_Foremain said:
Well the ERG probably want to pick up where we left off in 1945, so I think I prefer the slightly more up to date approach of 2016.Alanbrooke said:
these people are the establishment as far as I can see.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it might be the political status quo? Maybe? You should be in favour as someone who often rails against the "establishment". Not sure whether they have quite the number of old- Etonians to claim to be as anti-Establishment as, say, the ERG or supporters of the Blond Philanderer.Alanbrooke said:Im struggling to identify what ChangeUK want to change.
Theyre the more of the same party
But its not about people its about the policies, from what I have seen to date they want to pick up from whgere we left off in 2016. Something I view as wishful thinking.
On Europe I will be intrigued to see what their view is -will they go the whole hog and stand on integration, the euro and Schengen or will they go for the same old half in half out shtick the UK has pursued for years ?
Sorry to disagree old bean, but "the Establishment", if such a thing really exists, is very much about people. Boris Johnson is a classic example of an establishment figure doing contortions of mendacity to appeal to any group that might enable him to have his sweaty, podgy hands on the levers of power.0 -
The one-clause bill will be presented on Tuesday, requiring the prime minister to immediately come forward with a proposal for an extension to the article 50 period beyond 12 April for parliament to debate and vote on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.0 -
TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.0
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There are pretty certainly 294 votes for a VONC and 312 against.
The balance is held by 10 DUP, 11 TIG, and 11 Independents.
I expect Hermon, Woodcock, and Lewis would vote with the government, and Austin would abstain.0 -
She's deploying Army Detachment Grayling to The Mall and will become incoherently furious when he doesn't attack.Recidivist said:
Is she also arranging her troop deployments to keep the Red Army away from the bunker?NeilVW said:0 -
Gaming in that way would be obvious to fairly simple statistical analysis if widespread. On top of that we had a massive demonstration on the streets of London indicating that the sentiment behind the petition was a genuine and widespread one that should be taken seriously by professional politicians, psephologists and supporters of respecting people's democratic wishes.AnotherEngineer said:As reported on Guido (sorry):
https://www.kent.house/uk-petition-article-50-hijacked-by-bots/
As I thought, it isn't particularly hard. The only surprise is that it took them as long as 3 hours...0 -
Would anything May proposes be amendable?FrancisUrquhart said:The one-clause bill will be presented on Tuesday, requiring the prime minister to immediately come forward with a proposal for an extension to the article 50 period beyond 12 April for parliament to debate and vote on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.
That and the threat of a Cabinet revolt would have a chance of something acceptable to the EU being proposed.0 -
TIGs would back a confidence vote for Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO as a stepping stone to revoke over No Dealdyedwoolie said:
He needs the TIGs and the rest to pass a confidence vote. Tigs abstaining is enough to shoot him down along with the former labour indies he royally pissed offHYUFD said:
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
And we are still presuming Macron doesn't tell us to just f off and go and eat (jaffa) cakes. It does seem like he is very close to that.OblitusSumMe said:
Would anything May proposes be amendable?FrancisUrquhart said:The one-clause bill will be presented on Tuesday, requiring the prime minister to immediately come forward with a proposal for an extension to the article 50 period beyond 12 April for parliament to debate and vote on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.
That and the threat of a Cabinet revolt would have a chance of something acceptable to the EU being proposed.0 -
He probably lacks the votes to force a GE so would have no choiceStereotomy said:
I imagine Cobyn would prefer a GEHYUFD said:
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
They have said they won't vote to bring Corbyn into powerHYUFD said:
TIGs would back a confidence vote for Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO as a stepping stone to revoke over No Dealdyedwoolie said:
He needs the TIGs and the rest to pass a confidence vote. Tigs abstaining is enough to shoot him down along with the former labour indies he royally pissed offHYUFD said:
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
oxfordsimon said:
SNIPNigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .oxfordsimon said:
Because anything that TM proposes has to be bad - because she is an evil Tory. Only the righteous Jeremy can propose something that is worthy of being adopted because everything he thinks is perfect and pure.Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamboxfordsimon said:
Because anything that TM proposes has to be bad - because she is an evil Tory. Only the righteous Jeremy can propose something that is worthy of being adopted because everything he thinks is perfect and pure.Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamb
Correct on the first one, fantasy on the other.oxfordsimon said:
Because anything that TM proposes has to be bad - because she is an evil Tory. Only the righteous Jeremy can propose something that is worthy of being adopted because everything he thinks is perfect and pure.Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamb0 -
Lol, sure they would.HYUFD said:
TIGs would back a confidence vote for Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO as a stepping stone to revoke over No Dealdyedwoolie said:
He needs the TIGs and the rest to pass a confidence vote. Tigs abstaining is enough to shoot him down along with the former labour indies he royally pissed offHYUFD said:
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
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The EU will act with one voice. It's a very British habit to keep trying to analyse it through the perspective of individual national interests (edit/which is of course partly why our approach to Brexit has proved so ineffectual). Of course those interests bear on how the EU responds, but this isn't going to finish with an individual veto, and never was.FrancisUrquhart said:
And we are still presuming Macron doesn't tell us to just f off and go and eat (jaffa) cakes. It does seem like he is very close to that.OblitusSumMe said:
Would anything May proposes be amendable?FrancisUrquhart said:The one-clause bill will be presented on Tuesday, requiring the prime minister to immediately come forward with a proposal for an extension to the article 50 period beyond 12 April for parliament to debate and vote on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.
That and the threat of a Cabinet revolt would have a chance of something acceptable to the EU being proposed.0 -
At the last meeting, it sounded like Macron had to be some what strong armed into not throwing a wobbler.IanB2 said:
The EU will act with one voice. It's a very British perspective to keep analysing it through the perspective of individual national interests. Of course those interests bear on how the EU responds, but this isn't going to finish with an individual veto, and never was.FrancisUrquhart said:
And we are still presuming Macron doesn't tell us to just f off and go and eat (jaffa) cakes. It does seem like he is very close to that.OblitusSumMe said:
Would anything May proposes be amendable?FrancisUrquhart said:The one-clause bill will be presented on Tuesday, requiring the prime minister to immediately come forward with a proposal for an extension to the article 50 period beyond 12 April for parliament to debate and vote on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.
That and the threat of a Cabinet revolt would have a chance of something acceptable to the EU being proposed.0 -
An interesting article on Biden's predicament which suggests that OGH was, after all, quite right when he opined that Biden and Saunders are just too old to be President:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/01/biden-12469200 -
Afternoon all
I'll repost my comments on FOBTs from the previous thread later on as everyone seems interested in only one thing currently and I can't imagine why.
As an LD, I've no problem with Change UK though it will as always be difficult for some constituency parties and individuals to co-operate with them. TBH, if Change UK wanted to stand in East Ham instead of the LDs, I wouldn't lose any sleep (I shouldn't imagine Stephen Timms with his wafer-thin 40,000 majority would either).
If we don't know what Change UK stands for, I'm also trying to figure out what is an "Independent Progressive Conservative"?0 -
Any Cons voting for this nonsense need their bumps felt.FrancisUrquhart said:The one-clause bill will be presented on Tuesday, requiring the prime minister to immediately come forward with a proposal for an extension to the article 50 period beyond 12 April for parliament to debate and vote on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.
It's a Labour elephant trap to a general election.0 -
Actually if Biden is out polls show most of his support transfers to Sanders making Sanders clear favourite for the Democratic nomination.Nigelb said:An interesting article on Biden's predicament which suggests that OGH was, after all, quite right when he opined that Biden and Saunders are just too old to be President:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/01/biden-1246920
It would then be a Trump v Sanders general election, both candidates over 700 -
Yes they encouraged their Cornwall support to vote UKIP in 2015, they were pro PV to get us outOldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
0 -
They have also said they will not allow No Deal and they would prefer a Corbyn government under their control than a general election or keeping May in I suspectoxfordsimon said:
They have said they won't vote to bring Corbyn into powerHYUFD said:
TIGs would back a confidence vote for Corbyn and SM and Customs Union BINO as a stepping stone to revoke over No Dealdyedwoolie said:
He needs the TIGs and the rest to pass a confidence vote. Tigs abstaining is enough to shoot him down along with the former labour indies he royally pissed offHYUFD said:
Also possible the DUP could VONC the Government and do a Deal with Corbyn to make him PM in return for SM and Customs Union BINO for the whole UK if Letwin Cooper Bill to prevent No Deal being implemented passes and May persists with her DealDanny565 said:0 -
May should go to the EU and ask for them to throw us out on 1st Jan 2020 if we can't sign off on the WA.
We will make our contributions plus a bit more to cover the interim period which shall be used to prepare for life after Brexit on both sides.
Then stand down.0 -
They campaigned with NO2EU in the Euros so I think that's fair. And as for the rump SDP...OldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
https://sdp.org.uk/policies/brexit/
("In the absence of a better offer from the EU, we support a WTO Brexit.")
I think the SDP and the Liberal Party should merge! Wonder what they would call themselves?
0 -
Genuinely bizarre that anyone thinks there will be Euro elections. I cannot see any credible scenario under which they take place.0
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But happy then to work against TIGgersOldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
0 -
Both true.Recidivist said:
Gaming in that way would be obvious to fairly simple statistical analysis if widespread. On top of that we had a massive demonstration on the streets of London indicating that the sentiment behind the petition was a genuine and widespread one that should be taken seriously by professional politicians, psephologists and supporters of respecting people's democratic wishes.
There's a vulnerability for people who wish to sign 2/3/4 times (easy enough given home/mobile IPs), and plenty will be doing this, but that's not going to be more than a million of the signatures at most.
The real weakness would be against botnets. Different IP every one, and if they could be bothered, get hold of lots of names/postcodes in roughly the correct leave/remain distribution. Not at all difficult, and basically no way to detect or defend against it.
0 -
Although it isn't entirely clear from the article, which was filed this morning, it seems as if the "Tuesday" referred to is supposed to be today, rather than next week?FrancisUrquhart said:The one-clause bill will be presented on Tuesday, requiring the prime minister to immediately come forward with a proposal for an extension to the article 50 period beyond 12 April for parliament to debate and vote on.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-seek-to-stop-no-deal-brexit-by-tabling-article-50-bill
Surely again, May could just come forward with some nonsense that the EU won't agree to and therefore again default no-deal Brexit.0 -
Big increase in cartoon horse racing I think !stodge said:Afternoon all
I'll repost my comments on FOBTs from the previous thread later on as everyone seems interested in only one thing currently and I can't imagine why.
Is Tiger Roll as good as all that ? Perhaps a straight lay on the Betfair exchanges is 'the bet'...0 -
FWIW, I'd definitely vote for LibDems2.0 before I voted for the Cable version or the Chuka knock-off.MyBurningEars said:
They campaigned with NO2EU in the Euros so I think that's fair. And as for the rump SDP...OldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
https://sdp.org.uk/policies/brexit/
("In the absence of a better offer from the EU, we support a WTO Brexit.")
I think the SDP and the Liberal Party should merge! Wonder what they would call themselves?0 -
We extend article 50 next week following the EU summit, remain EU members and have no choice but to?SouthamObserver said:Genuinely bizarre that anyone thinks there will be Euro elections. I cannot see any credible scenario under which they take place.
I can see the Tories and Labour may not want them - but that is another matter.0 -
I expect so. But the Liberal Party is distinct from the LibDems, which they regard as 'big statist",Fenman said:
But happy then to work against TIGgersOldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
0 -
Unlikely lib dems would stand on an anti EU platform thoughFenman said:
But happy then to work against TIGgersOldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
0 -
Another longer term implication of recent events is that the total failure of Labour, the SNP, PC, the LDs and the Greens to work together to prevent a Tory No Deal Brexit demonstrates clearly that there is next to no chance of a progressive coalition - formal or otherwise - to keep the Tories out of power after the next election.0
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#activateshirleyMyBurningEars said:
FWIW, I'd definitely vote for LibDems2.0 before I voted for the Cable version or the Chuka knock-off.MyBurningEars said:
They campaigned with NO2EU in the Euros so I think that's fair. And as for the rump SDP...OldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
https://sdp.org.uk/policies/brexit/
("In the absence of a better offer from the EU, we support a WTO Brexit.")
I think the SDP and the Liberal Party should merge! Wonder what they would call themselves?0 -
Only 2 routes to avoiding elections.SouthamObserver said:Genuinely bizarre that anyone thinks there will be Euro elections. I cannot see any credible scenario under which they take place.
The WA passes.
Or no deal.
Every chance we will participate after a long unwanted extension is forced down our throats by wrecker MPs.
0 -
I feel Trump will beat SandersHYUFD said:
Actually if Biden is out polls show most of his support transfers to Sanders making Sanders clear favourite for the Democratic nomination.Nigelb said:An interesting article on Biden's predicament which suggests that OGH was, after all, quite right when he opined that Biden and Saunders are just too old to be President:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/01/biden-1246920
It would then be a Trump v Sanders general election, both candidates over 70
0 -
What would you call a Lib Dem ChangeUK agreement.stodge said:Afternoon all
I'll repost my comments on FOBTs from the previous thread later on as everyone seems interested in only one thing currently and I can't imagine why.
As an LD, I've no problem with Change UK though it will as always be difficult for some constituency parties and individuals to co-operate with them. TBH, if Change UK wanted to stand in East Ham instead of the LDs, I wouldn't lose any sleep (I shouldn't imagine Stephen Timms with his wafer-thin 40,000 majority would either).
If we don't know what Change UK stands for, I'm also trying to figure out what is an "Independent Progressive Conservative"?
The CHangeUKAlliance - or Chuka for short?
Has Change UK been clear about what it wants to change - because it seems to be very much the status quo party that doesn't really want to change anything much.0 -
There is zero chance of Mrs May asking for any kind of extension that involves European elections. If the choice is those or No Deal she will take No Deal.brendan16 said:
We extend article 50 next week following the EU summit, remain EU members and have no choice but to?SouthamObserver said:Genuinely bizarre that anyone thinks there will be Euro elections. I cannot see any credible scenario under which they take place.
I can see the Tories and Labour may not want them - but that is another matter.
0 -
All right, whose bright idea was the meaningful vote anyway? Would be quite amusing if it is directly responsible for a no deal brexit.0
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I can't see the dem establishment allowing a socialist candidate, they stitched him up in 2016 and will do so againSlackbladder said:
I feel Trump will beat SandersHYUFD said:
Actually if Biden is out polls show most of his support transfers to Sanders making Sanders clear favourite for the Democratic nomination.Nigelb said:An interesting article on Biden's predicament which suggests that OGH was, after all, quite right when he opined that Biden and Saunders are just too old to be President:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/01/biden-1246920
It would then be a Trump v Sanders general election, both candidates over 700 -
I repeat. LibDem Party members are not Liberal Party members. And vice versa. Two distints political organisations.dyedwoolie said:
Unlikely lib dems would stand on an anti EU platform thoughFenman said:
But happy then to work against TIGgersOldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
0 -
It would have to be rather more sophisticated than the setup outlined in Guido's article though. You'd have to match every feature of the genuine data, so at a minimum you'd need 24 hours worth of data as a model. And you'd have to phase in the bottery smoothly to avoid jumps in the time series. And you'd have to monitor it to slow down in line with the actual voting. There is no way it is a 3 hour job for a hacker.Andrew said:
Both true.Recidivist said:
Gaming in that way would be obvious to fairly simple statistical analysis if widespread. On top of that we had a massive demonstration on the streets of London indicating that the sentiment behind the petition was a genuine and widespread one that should be taken seriously by professional politicians, psephologists and supporters of respecting people's democratic wishes.
There's a vulnerability for people who wish to sign 2/3/4 times (easy enough given home/mobile IPs), and plenty will be doing this, but that's not going to be more than a million of the signatures at most.
The real weakness would be against botnets. Different IP every one, and if they could be bothered, get hold of lots of names/postcodes in roughly the correct leave/remain distribution. Not at all difficult, and basically no way to detect or defend against it.0 -
I'd echo Letwin's sentiment that this Bill is going to be hard work (though probably no more difficult than any other course of action beyond saying "no")
Getting a Commons majority for it; then a May proposal (as amended) which the Commons backs; then persuading the EU that it constitutes "a plan" by next Wed feels like a tall order given everyone's track record so far.
I guess we get Lab whipping for; Tories against (?) (for what it's worth nowadays). But I'd have thought there'll be a substantial Commons voice arguing this isn't great law/not prescriptive enough/doesn't move us on from indicative votes - ie it leaves it entirely undecided as to what the will of the Commons is apart from "not this".
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One wonders what would have happened had the MV requirement not been forced on us, and the Govt just did a deal last November. Would the ERG/Remainer cohort have blocked the passage of the ratifying legislation, or would it have just resulted in a week or two of Tory infighting, before we moved on with our lives until 30th March when we could have then started the process of negotiating our future relationship?RobD said:All right, whose bright idea was the meaningful vote anyway? Would be quite amusing if it is directly responsible for a no deal brexit.
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I’ve been saying this for a while. The only person who has significant power to move to a compromise is Corbyn. He won’t because he hates the tories.oxfordsimon said:
Because anything that TM proposes has to be bad - because she is an evil Tory. Only the righteous Jeremy can propose something that is worthy of being adopted because everything he thinks is perfect and pure.Nigel_Foremain said:Can someone please explain why all the options favoured by the Jeremy Corbyn Party cannot be achieved via Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement?
By the way, I wonder whether Jacob Rees Mogg had a withdrawal agreement with his wife that he regularly reneged upon? I am reluctantly voting in favour of this withdrawal agreement tonight dear...oh dear so sorry .
Corbyn, of course, hasn't read the WA and probably wouldn't understand it if he tried. Poor lamb0 -
I know, I was referring to the claim individual lib dems would stand against tigs on a liberal badge/platformOldKingCole said:
I repeat. LibDem Party members are not Liberal Party members. And vice versa. Two distints political organisations.dyedwoolie said:
Unlikely lib dems would stand on an anti EU platform thoughFenman said:
But happy then to work against TIGgersOldKingCole said:
The Liberal Party is (or was last time I looked) anti EU.Fenman said:TIG may reach an agreement with the Lib Dems, but I guarantee you that individual Lib Dems will stand against them, probably under the Liberal Party badge. This time there will be no free ride for never has beens and never will be's. My personal target is the egregious Heidi Allen.
0 -
And not sure the EU are exactly thrilled with the idea of them either.SouthamObserver said:
There is zero chance of Mrs May asking for any kind of extension that involves European elections. If the choice is those or No Deal she will take No Deal.brendan16 said:
We extend article 50 next week following the EU summit, remain EU members and have no choice but to?SouthamObserver said:Genuinely bizarre that anyone thinks there will be Euro elections. I cannot see any credible scenario under which they take place.
I can see the Tories and Labour may not want them - but that is another matter.0 -
It is impossible to force a long extension down the government's throat. Only Mrs May can ask for one. She won't.TGOHF said:
Only 2 routes to avoiding elections.SouthamObserver said:Genuinely bizarre that anyone thinks there will be Euro elections. I cannot see any credible scenario under which they take place.
The WA passes.
Or no deal.
Every chance we will participate after a long unwanted extension is forced down our throats by wrecker MPs.0
