politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today
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I didn’t realise any of them every voted differently from the others.tpfkar said:Just scanned through the division list. Looks like no-one moved away from the deal, only towards it.
One SNP abstention caught my eye - I confess I've never heard of John McNally but I didn't think the SNP were the abstaining type.
I am surprised if no one who backed MV2 moved away from it in MV2.5.
Overall the result was closer than I thought it would be in the end, but it is more of an appetiser to the now important votes next week.
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Well I suppose that would have been good for those that believe in minimal governmentDura_Ace said:
Remember when David Davis was being pimped out as a potential "Caretaker PM" by pb.com tories? Good times.AlastairMeeks said:Could we have another bout of speculation about Theresa May being replaced by David Lidington over the weekend please?
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55% isn't bad if all anti Brexiteers vote for him. Though I can hardly think of a worse PM in waiting than Corbyn if he'll abandon Brexit he'll get my voteScott_P said:0 -
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I think the outcome of what the 34 Tory rebels did today can be measured by the gurning expression of Remainiacs everywhere. They know Brexit has been shafted.0
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TIG won't do anything unless its subject to the PV._Anazina_ said:
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worriedCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland0 -
Congratulations to you both!Big_G_NorthWales said:
My good lady and my 55th wedding anniversary !!!MikeL said:Earliest possible date for GE realistically now 16 May (*).
The immediate decisions have to be taken in the next few weeks - way before a GE can produce a new Parliament.
If agreement made in next two weeks to extend for a year - then no need for the GE.
(*) 9 May if dissolved on Monday - but that means motion must be put forward today.
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Agreed. Those 34, along with the DUP are the hardcore. They aren't switching for anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:34 conservative rebels plus DUP equals fall of the deal
The deal is dead (it was dead in December to be fair) and May's idea of running down the clock has badly failed.
I have no idea where we go from here........0 -
The PMs deal should have been waved through unopposed to respect the referendum result.SouthamObserver said:No-one can be happy about this. Can someone tell me what to think please. I just have no idea anymore.
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Possibly, but Labour are now very much disliked.IanB2 said:
And most people are capable of remembering that the Tories and DUP are supposed to have a majority. Rule One: it is always the government's faultanothernick said:
Waste of time. It's been pretty comprehensively shown that Labour voters are motivated more by bread and butter issues and not Brexit. Interesting, though, that the Tories agree that Brexit has been stopped.Scott_P said:0 -
16 May or 9 May? Ours is 9 May (only 38 years though!)Big_G_NorthWales said:
My good lady and my 55th wedding anniversary !!!MikeL said:Earliest possible date for GE realistically now 16 May (*).
The immediate decisions have to be taken in the next few weeks - way before a GE can produce a new Parliament.
If agreement made in next two weeks to extend for a year - then no need for the GE.
(*) 9 May if dissolved on Monday - but that means motion must be put forward today.0 -
At least 50-60 MPs would probably resign the whip and set up a new/UKIP party.Nigel_Foremain said:
Yay, we agree again well the first part anyway! Sadly I don't think it will happen,Richard_Tyndall said:The best way forward for the Tory party now is for May to resign and Ken Clarke to take over as PM to take them thorough a GE on a policy of soft Brexit. As long as Corbyn is still there I think this would mean a Tory majority at least on paper.
But that is what is best for the Tory party, not necessarily what is best for the country.0 -
You want to run modern software on your old hardware, on an Internet that is ultra-modern. If you don't connect your old computer to the Internet, you should be fine.Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/1107582143318970368
This is an area I know a little about, and it's frightening how much the Internet changes things. You have to guard against new exploits all the time, and old hardware lacks so many protections that new hardware have.0 -
Brilliant. We are relative beginners at 34 years but I don’t think that we have ever been happier than we are now (despite my better half being increasingly cross about Brexit).Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks David and we are closer than ever, as we are to our familyDavidL said:
Congratulations. That is a fantastic achievement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My good lady and my 55th wedding anniversary !!!MikeL said:Earliest possible date for GE realistically now 16 May (*).
The immediate decisions have to be taken in the next few weeks - way before a GE can produce a new Parliament.
If agreement made in next two weeks to extend for a year - then no need for the GE.
(*) 9 May if dissolved on Monday - but that means motion must be put forward today.0 -
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding0
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I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:
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If she got the Labour nod again (I admit that might not happen !), she'd win again.Pulpstar said:
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !Bob__Sykes said:
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.TheScreamingEagles said:I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.0 -
Well if you want to call 13% to 2% “widening support” to win an argument I’ll have to give you a byeNigel_Foremain said:
He was and they have. They have widened their appeal as far right as they can manage, which is only a little further right than they were already.isam said:
The amount of times I was told Farage was a mad extremist and UKIP would widen their appeal when he left...CarlottaVance said:0 -
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.oxfordsimon said:If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
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How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
I would vote Labour to unseat a Tigger, I might even vote SNP.Sean_F said:
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.DavidL said:
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.Casino_Royale said:I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.0 -
The EU may not be against. And, things can happen even if people don't want them to happen, if they utterly refuse to back down._Anazina_ said:
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just like that. No problem.Mysticrose said:
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happenCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away0 -
From the Guardian:
"...here is the list of Tory MPs who voted against the withdrawal agreement at the second meaningful vote (MV2) but for it this afternoon: Lucy Allan, Richard Bacon, Crispin Blunt, Conor Burns, Rehman Chishti, Simon Clarke, Damian Collins, Rosie Cooper, Robert Courts, Richard Drax, Iain Duncan Smith, Charlie Elphicke, Michael Fabricant, Sir Michael Fallon, Jim Fitzpatrick, James Gray, Chris Green, Mark Harper, Gordon Henderson, Eddie Hughes, Boris Johnson, Gareth Johnson, Daniel Kawczynski, Pauline Latham, Andrew Lewer, Ian Liddell-Grainger, Jonathan Lord, Esther McVey, Anne Main, Sheryll Murray, Tom Pursglove, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Henry Smith, Royston Smith, Bob Stewart, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson, Craig Tracey, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Shailesh Vara, John Whittingdale."
What a bunch of snowflakes, eh! Where's their backbone?! 0 -
Yes, that might be a condition of their support, Slackbladder.Slackbladder said:
TIG won't do anything unless its subject to the PV._Anazina_ said:
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worriedCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland0 -
Afternoon all
No great surprise then - I thought it might be a little closer than it was but 34 Conservative MPs have killed the WA. Had they all supported their Prime Minister the WA would have carried 320-310 so if anyone wants to blame someone for "stopping Brexit" there's 34 you can start with.
What now?
Basically we are down to two options - leave without a WA on 12/4 or go back cap in hand to the EU and seek a long extension which will involve fighting the EU elections. One is a quick death for the Conservatives, the other slow and painful I'm tempted to suggest but that may not be the case.
May is finished - she adds her name to the list of Conservative PMs brought down by Europe. The immediate concern is whether the EU will be minded to offer a long extension and whether we will be minded to accept it. The pain of No Deal (if there is any) may be short and sharp in comparison to a long extension especially in an electorate where the "Let's Get It Over With" party are doing very well and may now pivot to No Deal.0 -
When we're here with no brexit this time next year, one of the Brexit parties (Not sure which one) will probably have gained back to 10% or so I think.0
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The membership wouldn't have it, and Ken is way past it now. I've been struck recently by how old and dishevelled he looks. I'm not sure he could take the rigours of leading a campaign from the front.Richard_Tyndall said:The best way forward for the Tory party now is for May to resign and Ken Clarke to take over as PM to take them thorough a GE on a policy of soft Brexit. As long as Corbyn is still there I think this would mean a Tory majority at least on paper.
But that is what is best for the Tory party, not necessarily what is best for the country.
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The other bad thing about that poster (other than encouraging Remainers to vote Labour) is that they make Corbyn look reasonably presentable. Surely they could choose a scuffier picture ffs! There are enough of themRoger said:
55% isn't bad if all anti Brexiteers vote for him. Though I can hardly think of a worse PM in waiting than Corbyn if he'll abandon Brexit he'll get my voteScott_P said:0 -
Or that Ford should come round and install ABS on your Mk.1 Escort in tbe middle of the night for free.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
All this moaning could be avoided if PBers did the sensible thing and moved to the Apple platform...........Richard_Tyndall said:
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
_Anazina_ said:
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.Slackbladder said:We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses0 -
Mr. Jessop, hmm. That does make me wonder about maybe keeping the desktop, disconnecting it, using it for writing etc, and using a laptop for online stuff. Might be cheaper than buying a new desktop.
Anyway, as I said, time to think about things.0 -
Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.0 -
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.kle4 said:
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:
Well worth it. A government majority based on twats like that is no majority at all. As has been demonstrated once again.0 -
Brexit has managed a sexual contortion worthy of the Kama Sutra and shafted itselfNorm said:I think the outcome of what the 34 Tory rebels did today can be measured by the gurning expression of Remainiacs everywhere. They know Brexit has been shafted.
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Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.ReggieCide said:
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
Apparently Mark Stone has just said the EU have commented that wording on the political declaration that would have majority in the HOC could be inserted in days and brexit happen fairly quickly_Anazina_ said:
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worriedCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections0 -
Jim Fitzpatrick? Shurely shome mishtake.....Benpointer said:From the Guardian:
"...here is the list of Tory MPs who voted against the withdrawal agreement at the second meaningful vote (MV2) but for it this afternoon: Lucy Allan, Richard Bacon, Crispin Blunt, Conor Burns, Rehman Chishti, Simon Clarke, Damian Collins, Rosie Cooper, Robert Courts, Richard Drax, Iain Duncan Smith, Charlie Elphicke, Michael Fabricant, Sir Michael Fallon, Jim Fitzpatrick, James Gray, Chris Green, Mark Harper, Gordon Henderson, Eddie Hughes, Boris Johnson, Gareth Johnson, Daniel Kawczynski, Pauline Latham, Andrew Lewer, Ian Liddell-Grainger, Jonathan Lord, Esther McVey, Anne Main, Sheryll Murray, Tom Pursglove, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Henry Smith, Royston Smith, Bob Stewart, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson, Craig Tracey, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Shailesh Vara, John Whittingdale."
What a bunch of snowflakes, eh! Where's their backbone?!0 -
I don't think "yeah yeah Corbyn" does justice to the brand impactkle4 said:
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I have that option, although I think that Gavin Shuker has no chance of retaining his seat anyway.DavidL said:
I would vote Labour to unseat a Tigger, I might even vote SNP.Sean_F said:
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.DavidL said:
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.Casino_Royale said:I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.0 -
That was then. This is nowisam said:_Anazina_ said:
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.Slackbladder said:We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses0 -
tough shit...it's almost nailed on that'll happen. I expect TIG will do well.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections_Anazina_ said:
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worriedCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
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It was later in Scotland. The count took place on 26th July.OldKingCole said:
1945 was on 5th July. Can recall seeing the posters in the sunshine from my bedroom window.MikeL said:But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?
If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.
And in practice that probably means October - has there ever been a GE in July/Aug/Sept?
And all the immediate pressures are now - if a one year extension is agreed then the pressure will be off come June anyway.
An early GE must mean a May v Corbyn contest - anyone expecting an early GE should bet on Corbyn in next PM market.0 -
F1: Patrick Head is returning to Williams.0
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A Mk.1 has become a horribly unsafe car by modern standards.Benpointer said:
Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.ReggieCide said:
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
Yes it happened todayMikeSmithson said:
That was then. This is nowisam said:_Anazina_ said:
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.Slackbladder said:We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses0 -
But all they have said since formation is what they are against - mainly Brexit and antisemitismParistonda said:Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.
There has been no attempt to articulate anything approaching a vision for change.
They are an empty vessel attempting to make some noise. And rather failing.0 -
I know where I would like to "implant" Brexit. The vote was far too simplistic. Easy to say with hindsight, but it needed far too much interpretation. Leave might mean leave, but which door should we go out of is disputed. If Brexit dies, it is of its own contradictionsisam said:_Anazina_ said:
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.Slackbladder said:We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses0 -
Chortle.0
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I
It’s impossible to avoid without no deal is it not? ANd if you elect you might as well have them be there for some time - I suspect the extension will be as long as it takes for parliament to become comfortable with revocation,Slackbladder said:
tough shit...it's almost nailed on that'll happen. I expect TIG will do well.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections_Anazina_ said:
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worriedCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland0 -
Oh I hadn't realised the vote was early today! Well surely it's revoke or long delay now. Brexit is no longer invincible and I don't see parliament letting it get to the point where No Deal becomes an option. But long extension much more likely I think. The EU will agree to it, its further humiliation to us so all rosy for them0
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There is a great deal of evidence that Labour voters are much less likely to see Brexit as an important driver for their voting preference than Tories. Which partly explains why many Labour MPs in leave seats have backed a second referendum.Pulpstar said:
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Quite. The default position is the default position and there doesn't seem much unity or goodwill on which a compromise could be manufactured and the, there's the EU!Sean_F said:
The EU may not be against. And, things can happen even if people don't want them to happen, if they utterly refuse to back down._Anazina_ said:
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just like that. No problem.Mysticrose said:
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happenCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away0 -
The SNP and LDs unlikely to support PM Corbyn under any circumstances & LAB has lost a significant number of MPs since GE17.Slackbladder said:
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.oxfordsimon said:If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
0 -
CUK is "cock" in Norwegian.Paristonda said:Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.0 -
But would less safe Tories in other areas lose as a result of stay at home supporters angry at what happened to the deselected?Sean_F said:
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.kle4 said:
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:
0 -
+1DavidL said:
Brilliant. We are relative beginners at 34 years but I don’t think that we have ever been happier than we are now (despite my better half being increasingly cross about Brexit).Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks David and we are closer than ever, as we are to our familyDavidL said:
Congratulations. That is a fantastic achievement.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My good lady and my 55th wedding anniversary !!!MikeL said:Earliest possible date for GE realistically now 16 May (*).
The immediate decisions have to be taken in the next few weeks - way before a GE can produce a new Parliament.
If agreement made in next two weeks to extend for a year - then no need for the GE.
(*) 9 May if dissolved on Monday - but that means motion must be put forward today.0 -
May’s deal had nothing going for it so no matter what pressure is applied by whom to whom it was always going to fail. May’s critical errors were agreeing to defer meaningful talks on trade by agreeing to the EU agenda and talking up no deal but absolutely failing to prepare for it.
The U.K. has a binary choice - no deal or no Brexit. I would prefer no deal but either is more preferable to what we have now. I don’t see any mileage in a lighter Brexit, whatever that means or a second referendum. I’d rather have another election with a new Tory leader untainted by May’s failures. Too many MPs simply want to be paid for doing as directed by Brussels. That has to change.0 -
Richard_Tyndall said:
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/1107582143318970368
It's a bit worse than that. The best analogy would be if Ford said we no longer guarantee that Mk1 Escort is safe and advice you stop using it; which would scupper your insurance I suspect.
I agree that individual PC users can probably carry on with Win7 and not get too worried. But many businesses are in a tricky situation. I was involved in a number of very expensive PC upgrade projects for banks necessitated not because the PCs weren't performing but because the operating systems were going out of support and the FSA/FCA wouldn't allow us to operate in that mode.0 -
So why did leaver seats like Mansfield fall at the 2017 GE?anothernick said:
There is a great deal of evidence that Labour voters are much less likely to see Brexit as an important driver for their voting preference than Tories. Which partly explains why many Labour MPs in leave seats have backed a second referendum.Pulpstar said:
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
IDS a once safe Tory Greater London seat could now be washed away in a remain tsunami, it’s in the con most marginal 40 seats.Sean_F said:
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.kle4 said:
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
LOL. A better analogyDura_Ace said:
Or that Ford should come round and install ABS on your Mk.1 Escort in tbe middle of the night for free.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
Quite a good post until the penultimate sentence which could have been from the lips of Mark Francois and therefore very silly. Are you Mark Francois?AmpfieldAndy said:May’s deal had nothing going for it so no matter what pressure is applied by whom to whom it was always going to fail. May’s critical errors were agreeing to defer meaningful talks on trade by agreeing to the EU agenda and talking up no deal but absolutely failing to prepare for it.
The U.K. has a binary choice - no deal or no Brexit. I would prefer no deal but either is more preferable to what we have now. I don’t see any mileage in a lighter Brexit, whatever that means or a second referendum. I’d rather have another election with a new Tory leader untainted by May’s failures. Too many MPs simply want to be paid for doing as directed by Brussels. That has to change.0 -
Who's said "the engine is unsafe (next year?) and you have to upgrade"?Benpointer said:
Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.ReggieCide said:
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/11075821433189703680 -
So, we now move on to MV4.0
-
TM has just said the same so maybe she is moving towards the compromise coming out next week_Anazina_ said:
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just like that. No problem.Mysticrose said:
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happenCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
But it is not bogged down when it happens 14 days today without majority approval and actual legislation0 -
I thought it might be fun and now I'm convinced it would.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Apparently Mark Stone has just said the EU have commented that wording on the political declaration that would have majority in the HOC could be inserted in days and brexit happen fairly quickly_Anazina_ said:
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worriedCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections0 -
If you look at polling in detail, Conservative voters have swung very much in favour of the WA,kle4 said:
But would less safe Tories in other areas lose as a result of stay at home supporters angry at what happened to the deselected?Sean_F said:
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.kle4 said:
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:
so I'd say not.0 -
Yes, yes, I get that. Although most Mk1s are now probably very safe in the sense that by their nature they are driven very carefully.Dura_Ace said:
A Mk.1 has become a horribly unsafe car by modern standards.Benpointer said:
Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.ReggieCide said:
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/1107582143318970368
Anyway this is not an argument Microsoft or Apple are going to listen to me on, so I think I'll stick to Brexit (Bremain) 0 -
*No Deal Brexit waves*Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM has just said the same so maybe she is moving towards the compromise coming out next week_Anazina_ said:
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just like that. No problem.Mysticrose said:
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happenCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
But it is not bogged down when it happens 14 days today without majority approval and actual legislation0 -
I said it was a less significant factor, not that it was completely irrelevant.Norm said:
So why did leaver seats like Mansfield fall at the 2017 GE?anothernick said:
There is a great deal of evidence that Labour voters are much less likely to see Brexit as an important driver for their voting preference than Tories. Which partly explains why many Labour MPs in leave seats have backed a second referendum.Pulpstar said:
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:
In the case of Mansfield I understand that the previous incumbent had a poor reputation locally and was not seen as an effective MP.0 -
That was because they had to bring the servicemen's votes (including my fathers (probably the last, or last but one time he voted Labour) back from wherever. It was 12th, according Wikipedia in 'several constituencies' Nelson & Colne was on it's annual town holiday, so it was later still there.justin124 said:
It was later in Scotland. The count took place on 26th July.OldKingCole said:
1945 was on 5th July. Can recall seeing the posters in the sunshine from my bedroom window.MikeL said:But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?
If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.
And in practice that probably means October - has there ever been a GE in July/Aug/Sept?
And all the immediate pressures are now - if a one year extension is agreed then the pressure will be off come June anyway.
An early GE must mean a May v Corbyn contest - anyone expecting an early GE should bet on Corbyn in next PM market.0 -
The new battlelines are interesting. I would vote Labour to unseat an ERG member. I don't have that option as our MP is somewhat bland and "tow the line"Sean_F said:
I have that option, although I think that Gavin Shuker has no chance of retaining his seat anyway.DavidL said:
I would vote Labour to unseat a Tigger, I might even vote SNP.Sean_F said:
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.DavidL said:
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.Casino_Royale said:I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.0 -
Chingford is only a marginally Remain seat, though, and the Conservatives did well there in the local elections.notme2 said:
IDS a once safe Tory Greater London seat could now be washed away in a remain tsunami, it’s in the con most marginal 40 seats.Sean_F said:
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.kle4 said:
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:
0 -
You can’t be serious - but no I’m not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Quite a good post until the penultimate sentence which could have been from the lips of Mark Francois and therefore very silly. Are you Mark Francois?AmpfieldAndy said:May’s deal had nothing going for it so no matter what pressure is applied by whom to whom it was always going to fail. May’s critical errors were agreeing to defer meaningful talks on trade by agreeing to the EU agenda and talking up no deal but absolutely failing to prepare for it.
The U.K. has a binary choice - no deal or no Brexit. I would prefer no deal but either is more preferable to what we have now. I don’t see any mileage in a lighter Brexit, whatever that means or a second referendum. I’d rather have another election with a new Tory leader untainted by May’s failures. Too many MPs simply want to be paid for doing as directed by Brussels. That has to change.0 -
Is that true?Benpointer said:
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.eek said:
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was freeMorris_Dancer said:Just seen this. As a Windows 7 user, I'm less than delighted.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/1107582143318970368
It used to be that way, but I thought that Vista was the last Windows like that, with subsequent editions being more efficient and not requiring an upgrade to a more powerful computer to run.0 -
I am sure Corbyn must mean c**t somewhere in the world. Oh, hang on...MarqueeMark said:
CUK is "cock" in Norwegian.Paristonda said:Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.0 -
Ferraris half a second quicker in the FP2 qualifying sims.
An interesting season beckons.0 -
Me too. Bring them onReggieCide said:
I thought it might be fun and now I'm convinced it would.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Apparently Mark Stone has just said the EU have commented that wording on the political declaration that would have majority in the HOC could be inserted in days and brexit happen fairly quickly_Anazina_ said:
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worriedCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections0 -
If the Tories get themselves a new leader, it will be a very different campaign to 2017. Its May who is unpopular rather the party, at least according to the polls - whatever that’s worth.kle4 said:
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.Sean_F said:
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).kle4 said:
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.DavidL said:
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.CarlottaVance said:0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
What if the support was for PM only to revoke Art50, and then elections?MikeSmithson said:
The SNP and LDs unlikely to support PM Corbyn under any circumstances & LAB has lost a significant number of MPs since GE17.Slackbladder said:
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.oxfordsimon said:If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
0 -
If he signed up to an indyref2 they would.MikeSmithson said:
The SNP and LDs unlikely to support PM Corbyn under any circumstances & LAB has lost a significant number of MPs since GE17.Slackbladder said:
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.oxfordsimon said:If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
0 -
The Tory vote has been proved remarkably solid in Scotland on the overall evidence across local by elections. If they lose any votes at all it will be a slither of WWC support in the central belt and/dissilusioned brexiteers to abstention in the northeast but last night's 20% in working class clakcmannanxhire bodes well for them.IanB2 said:
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !Bob__Sykes said:
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.TheScreamingEagles said:I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.
Don't see much change in Scotland. Labour will most likely lose about 4 seats net to the SNP although has outside potential to win a few ultra marginal working class like Airdrie, Mothwrwell, Glasgow SW and Glasgow E back from the SNP where there is more apathy about the EU and in general if they don't have a bad campaign.
Tories could gain Argyll from the SNP and an outside chance of defeating Wishart
LDs could gain Fife NE
In England I don't see Labour gaining more than 20 seats from the Tories max but Milton Keynes, Northampton, hastings, Norwich N, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Morecambe etc are very plausible.
0 -
Haven’t all the TIGgers said they won’t fight their existing constituency in the next GE ? They want to fight existing marginals. If Wollaston fights her current seat, she’ll lose. She was a popular local GP apparently but not much rated as an MP. MPs with personal followings, like say nearby Ben Bradshaw, are rare.Sean_F said:
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.DavidL said:
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.SouthamObserver said:
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.Casino_Royale said:I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.
0 -
I don't think any party wil be losing seats to TIG. Much more interesting wil be 'How many deposits will TIG save?'IanB2 said:
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !Bob__Sykes said:
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.TheScreamingEagles said:I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.0 -
Chuka Umunna could realisitcally get 35% in a by election and 20% in a GE, all the other Labour people will do worse than that no matter where they stand. Only give Allen a realistic chance of winning and maybe Wollaston could match the East Devon independent's performance and get around 35%.justin124 said:
I don't think any party wil be losing seats to TIG. Much more interesting wil be 'How many deposits will TIG save?'IanB2 said:
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !Bob__Sykes said:
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.TheScreamingEagles said:I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.0 -
Not waving, but drowning.MarqueeMark said:
*No Deal Brexit waves*Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM has just said the same so maybe she is moving towards the compromise coming out next week_Anazina_ said:
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just like that. No problem.Mysticrose said:
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happenCarlottaVance said:Good luck with that:
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
But it is not bogged down when it happens 14 days today without majority approval and actual legislation
No deal ain’t happening.0
