Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

IDS's soeech aimed at the #erg – balance of risk has changed even though the #WA hasn't – support the deal and get changes under new leadership. but that same message may dissuade some potential ?@UKLabour? rebels pic.twitter.com/ky486ZKqC5
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
They are true patriots.
Watch this from 25 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSMNGa60z4w
Getting closer and closer
MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.
A very long way from "defeat by 20"....
We shall not see them lit again in our life-time.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/29/mervyn-king-warns-election-victor
Brexit is the result of "Austerity" and no matter unless it's fixed the problems remain...
Not sure about that.
Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it
Out of principles and from behind a keyboard I still side with the DUP. But I don't envy MPs facing the lobbies today.
Without Godwinning this is a bit Sophie's Choice.
There remain 48 rebels (which would be enough to carry the motion if they all became counter-rebels)
We could also add Douglas Ross (previously absent) and Snell, if you wanted, which takes us to a defeat by 90.
Jim Fitzpatrick also said he's vote for the WA, but I'll believe that when I see it.
Or, they are effectively doing a Green Party and having co-leaders in all but name.
one for the maybe column
I have no idea how May gets them, but striking a deal with the Tom Watson faction must be the only way.
At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.
At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.
Start with defeat by 149:
28 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)
Gives defeat by 92.
There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions
Gives defeat by 76
Round my way we've got predictions of a loss by 45-100. Seems a solid range.
So the running count is:
Start with defeat by 149:
30 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie/ITV)
Gives defeat by 88.
There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions
Gives defeat by 72
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1111602289595346945
If she was leader there’d be a lot of Nando related headlines for our amusement
And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.
IMO anyone switching now reveals themselves as prioritising tactics over principles. If you can vote for this now, you could have voted for it the first or second time around.
Raab has gone over to the dark side.
More likely they just hope for a conclusion to the story rather than endless parliamentary pontification.
The 75 Labour MPs from the most Leave supporting seats. Can she get an extra 40 votes from these? Probably not
Susan Elan Jones
"Nia Griffith
"Stephen Hepburn
"Kevan Jones
"John Mann
"Kelvin Hopkins
"Sue Hayman
"Dame Rosie Winterton
"Ronnie Campbell
"John Spellar
"Angela Rayner
"Chris Ruane
"Richard Burgon
"Helen Goodman
"Tony Lloyd
"Christina Rees
"Sir Kevin Barron
"Jess Phillips
"Yvonne Fovargue
"Jon Cruddas
"Carolyn Harris
"Keith Vaz
"Nick Thomas-Symonds
"Phil Wilson
"Jon Trickett
"Chris Elmore
"Naz Shah
"Yvette Cooper
"Jack Dromey
"Alex Norris
"Dennis Skinner
"Valerie Vaz
"Emma Lewell-Buck
"Clive Betts
"Sharon Hodgson
"Gloria De Piero
"Caroline Flint
"Imran Hussain
"Khalid Mahmood
"Emma Hardy
"Gareth Snell
"Chris Evans
"Alex Cunningham
"Jim McMahon
"Kate Hollern
"Graham P Jones
"Bridget Phillipson
"Dan Jarvis
"Yasmin Qureshi
"Stephen Kinnock
"Judith Cummins
"Andy McDonald
"John Healey
"Mike Hill
"Gerald Jones
"Nic Dakin
"Julie Cooper
"Ann Clwyd
"Edward Miliband
"Gordon Marsden
"Anna Turley
"Ruth Smeeth
"Liam Byrne
"Chris Bryant
"Stephanie Peacock
"Melanie Onn
"Sarah Champion
"Tom Watson
"Emma Reynolds
"Karl Turner
"Nick Smith
"Grahame Morris
"Pat McFadden
"Ian Austin
"Adrian Bailey
However Cox all but accepted the Snell amendment for when the legislation comes to the Commons
As you say, mps love to can kick. With things already scheduled for next week why decide things now?
I have run my pre-Ref portfolio very successfully to date which has been global dollar-weighted. If there is no deal I will benefit greatly as sterling sinks. If there is a deal (a position I have been advocating since the beginning) not so much with an estimated upside in GBP/USD to 1.45-48. I have just bought some out of the money GBP/USD calls just in case those madmen actually do vote the deal through!!
Edit: DYOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ie call your MP!
In addition to overall loss size we should predict labour votes in favour. I'm saying less than 10, maybe 8. Abstentions dont count.
The gov't motion, OTOH, is at 6.4 and won't be void.
So the difference is... MV3 this evening or tomorrow??
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/29/john-hickenlooper-profile-president-2020-campaign-governor-226267
No chance, of course, but US political biographies tend to be far more appealing than ours.
So the running count is:
Start with defeat by 149:
31 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)
Gives defeat by 86.
There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions
Gives defeat by 70
Does that include Raab and Trevelyan?