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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

SystemSystem Posts: 12,546
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

IDS's soeech aimed at the #erg – balance of risk has changed even though the #WA hasn't – support the deal and get changes under new leadership. but that same message may dissuade some potential ?@UKLabour? rebels pic.twitter.com/ky486ZKqC5

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    First.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1 or 2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    A big shout out to the ERG for delaying Brexit.

    They are true patriots.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Nobody moves until they all move?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    Fourth like Boris
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,978
    It looks as if Gareth Snell will switch. It's rumoured that Dominic Raab will.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Some front page that of The Evening Gammon - "White saviour educates the ignorant savage"

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,960
    FPT
    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    geoffw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    geoffw said:

    Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
    (from 2hrs:37mins)
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs

    He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.

    #WrongThenWrongNow
    The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.
    He was so wise he didn’t even spot the credit crisis of 2007.
    Quite. And did not cover himself in glory in 2008 either.

    He was talking rubbish when he said that there should be a No Deal exit with a six month transition deal. What the hell does he think the WA is?
    In 2017 Mervyn King was saying that we were focusing too much on negotiations with the EU and we should start by negotiating trade deals with other countries before the "final step" of doing a deal with the EU.

    Watch this from 25 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSMNGa60z4w
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624

    Getting closer and closer
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.

    MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.

    A very long way from "defeat by 20"....

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    "I long for the time when a whole day can go by on PB when Brexit is not mentioned. I think that’s a long time off."

    We shall not see them lit again in our life-time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,522
    FPT
    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    geoffw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    geoffw said:

    Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
    (from 2hrs:37mins)
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs

    He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.

    #WrongThenWrongNow
    The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.
    He was so wise he didn’t even spot the credit crisis of 2007.
    Quite. And did not cover himself in glory in 2008 either.

    He was talking rubbish when he said that there should be a No Deal exit with a six month transition deal. What the hell does he think the WA is?
    Here’s another example of Mervyn ‘Always Wrong’ King

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/29/mervyn-king-warns-election-victor
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,699
    Sean_F said:

    It looks as if Gareth Snell will switch. It's rumoured that Dominic Raab will.

    Raab switching is great news for my Steve Baker bet. He will never surrender
  • eekeek Posts: 30,448
    As a labour MP why would you change your vote unless the money being offered wasn't unconditional...

    Brexit is the result of "Austerity" and no matter unless it's fixed the problems remain...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.

    MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.

    A very long way from "defeat by 20"....

    So if they all switched and the DUP (total 37) - it would still go down by 19 or so ?

    Not sure about that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,699
    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624

    Getting closer and closer

    Snell is like Labour rebel #4.
    Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it :p
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I'm rather glad today I'm not an MP. I could not in good conscience back this awful deal. But it probably does need to go through today.

    Out of principles and from behind a keyboard I still side with the DUP. But I don't envy MPs facing the lobbies today.

    Without Godwinning this is a bit Sophie's Choice.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Amusingly, it looks as though Jacob Rees-Mogg has manoeuvred himself into having to vote against this motion in order to retain any credibility in his word (by sub-contracting his vote to the DUP) when harder liners have decided to cut and run.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,960
    edited March 2019
    There could still be some more twists if the vote passes today. It won't be enough to ratify the WA, and if the ERG get buyer's remorse, it might make a second referendum more viable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,895
    22% chance of passing per Betfair. That is quite a big move. It was 8% an hour or so ago.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    geoffw said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    geoffw said:

    Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
    (from 2hrs:37mins)
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs

    He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.

    #WrongThenWrongNow
    The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.
    He was so wise he didn’t even spot the credit crisis of 2007.
    Quite. And did not cover himself in glory in 2008 either.

    He was talking rubbish when he said that there should be a No Deal exit with a six month transition deal. What the hell does he think the WA is?
    In 2017 Mervyn King was saying that we were focusing too much on negotiations with the EU and we should start by negotiating trade deals with other countries before the "final step" of doing a deal with the EU.

    Watch this from 25 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSMNGa60z4w
    Had Fox been someone competent we could have at least rolled over our existing trade deals before invoking Article 50.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TGOHF said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.

    MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.

    A very long way from "defeat by 20"....

    So if they all switched and the DUP (total 37) - it would still go down by 19 or so ?

    Not sure about that.
    By counter-rebel I mean ex-rebels now in support.

    There remain 48 rebels (which would be enough to carry the motion if they all became counter-rebels)

    We could also add Douglas Ross (previously absent) and Snell, if you wanted, which takes us to a defeat by 90.



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,978
    Pulpstar said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624

    Getting closer and closer

    Snell is like Labour rebel #4.
    Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it :p
    The Labour hard Brexiteers won't switch.

    Jim Fitzpatrick also said he's vote for the WA, but I'll believe that when I see it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,732
    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    And a much, much stronger media performer.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    williamglenn said:

    There could still be some more twists if the vote passes today. It won't be enough to ratify the WA, and if the ERG get buyers remorse, it might make a second referendum more viable.

    As ever all roads leads to Remain yeah? :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    Grieve says he doesn't think the WAIB can be concluded by 22 May and hence a longer extension is needed, which he believes the EU would agree.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,524
    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    He's chief spokesperson, so bit confusing: potentially he'll be the one on the box, and she'll be running the leader's office.

    Or, they are effectively doing a Green Party and having co-leaders in all but name.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    He's chief spokesperson, so bit confusing: potentially he'll be the one on the box, and she'll be running the leader's office.

    Or, they are effectively doing a Green Party and having co-leaders in all but name.
    wasn't Shuker like interim leader or something?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624

    Getting closer and closer

    Snell is like Labour rebel #4.
    Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it :p
    Hoey certainly, she takes her lead from the DUP.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    edited March 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    She's got a much better chance of retaining her seat than Chuka at the next election as well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    Grieve now calling out those ERG who are supporting the WA knowing they intend to rock the boat over the PD
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Amusingly, it looks as though Jacob Rees-Mogg has manoeuvred himself into having to vote against this motion in order to retain any credibility in his word (by sub-contracting his vote to the DUP) when harder liners have decided to cut and run.

    I know his views are the antithesis in many areas to mine, but that aside, I am absolutely staggered that anyone in the modern age could take Rees-Mogg seriously!
  • eekeek Posts: 30,448
    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1111594465775505408

    one for the maybe column
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    She's got a much better chance of retaining her seat than Chuka at the next election as well.
    I know the area for her seat very well, and I think you are right. Wouldn't be surprised to see her increase her majority.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,978
    Right now, it looks like a majority of 88 against, although I suspect some more Conservatives will switch.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BrookesTimes/status/1111599229322084352
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,653
    So we’re probably in the 270-280 votes box then, with it still falling by a majority of about 60-80??
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1111599852734087168
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,653
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.

    MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.

    A very long way from "defeat by 20"....

    It depends on another 40 or so Labour rebels switching.

    I have no idea how May gets them, but striking a deal with the Tom Watson faction must be the only way.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    She's got a much better chance of retaining her seat than Chuka at the next election as well.
    I know the area for her seat very well, and I think you are right. Wouldn't be surprised to see her increase her majority.
    If the LDs give her a free run, for sure, she 'll take most of their vote plus much of the Tory one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,610
    What time is the vote today?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    Let's not forget that Cameron's objective in calling the Referendum was to resolve the Tory divisions on Europe.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Benpointer said:

    What time is the vote today?

    2.30pm
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    edited March 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I know this should appeal to a few PBers.

    Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773

    I cant get to Manchester! Damn it
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111591533457883136

    Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.
    SouthamObserver said:

    https://twitter.com/raynerskynews/status/1111573717782548482?s=21

    See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.

    At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.

    At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,610
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Benpointer said:

    What time is the vote today?

    2.30pm
    Thanks :-)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2019
    So the running count is:

    Start with defeat by 149:

    28 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)

    Gives defeat by 92.

    There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions

    Gives defeat by 76
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,032
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    He's chief spokesperson, so bit confusing: potentially he'll be the one on the box, and she'll be running the leader's office.

    Or, they are effectively doing a Green Party and having co-leaders in all but name.
    wasn't Shuker like interim leader or something?
    Chaplain, I think.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,978
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I know this should appeal to a few PBers.

    Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773

    I cant get to Manchester! Damn it
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111591533457883136

    Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.
    SouthamObserver said:

    https://twitter.com/raynerskynews/status/1111573717782548482?s=21

    See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.

    At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.

    At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.

    Nandy has always given the impression she might vote for it, before pulling away. We should assume she never will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    20-30 lab on board yet?

    Round my way we've got predictions of a loss by 45-100. Seems a solid range.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    Chuka confirming TIG will/would put up candidates in the EU elections.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2019
    ITV moves Anne-Marie Trevelyan to Support

    So the running count is:

    Start with defeat by 149:

    30 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie/ITV)

    Gives defeat by 88.

    There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions

    Gives defeat by 72

  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    edited March 2019
    Bring on Kenny Clarke and his Wonderful Gnu. Roll up, roll up for the circus at 3pm!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I know this should appeal to a few PBers.

    Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773

    I cant get to Manchester! Damn it
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111591533457883136

    Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.
    SouthamObserver said:

    https://twitter.com/raynerskynews/status/1111573717782548482?s=21

    See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.

    At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.

    At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.

    Nandy has always given the impression she might vote for it, before pulling away. We should assume she never will.
    Indeed. Another in the long lists on both sides just seeking to avoid blame for various outcomes. She just wants to show she considered it at least.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1111602346478522369
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    A new type of CAPTCHA:

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1111602289595346945
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,208
    Pulpstar said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624

    Getting closer and closer

    Snell is like Labour rebel #4.
    Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it :p
    Hoey certainly is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    IanB2 said:

    Grieve says he doesn't think the WAIB can be concluded by 22 May and hence a longer extension is needed, which he believes the EU would agree.

    He means he would work day and night to ensure it could not be agreed in time.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Benpointer said:

    What time is the vote today?

    2.30pm
    Is that when MPs go to the dentist?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    _Anazina_ said:

    Bring on Kenny Clarke and his Wonderful Gnu. Roll up, roll up for the circus at 3pm!

    It would be less of a gnu and more of a pushmi-pullyu.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    This pseudo MV is surprisingly nerve-wracking.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Benpointer said:

    What time is the vote today?

    2.30pm
    Is that when MPs go to the dentist?
    It's certainly when the ERG are having their credibility extracted.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    kinabalu said:

    22% chance of passing per Betfair. That is quite a big move. It was 8% an hour or so ago.

    The usual over optimism. The usual 'surely given x, y must vote for it' which ignores that ultimately not enough want to vote for it, end if, and will a new reason as others fall down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    edited March 2019
    Jonathan said:

    This pseudo MV is surprisingly nerve-wracking.

    Its intriguing mostly because it might provably be the most popular option voted on to date. What happens once choices narrow further on indicative options is key.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,605
    Tragic the BBC are trying to big up the chances of the deal passing . Obviously have taken orders from no 10 .

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    IanB2 said:

    Let's not forget that Cameron's objective in calling the Referendum was to resolve the Tory divisions on Europe.

    Indeed. He could not be bothered to take on the nutters himself so he thought the electorate would do it for him. Which has to be the biggest political misjudgment since Chamberlain accepted Hitler's word at Munich.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 130
    IanB2 said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.

    She's got a much better chance of retaining her seat than Chuka at the next election as well.
    I know the area for her seat very well, and I think you are right. Wouldn't be surprised to see her increase her majority.
    If the LDs give her a free run, for sure, she 'll take most of their vote plus much of the Tory one.
    I live in one of the constituencies next door and Heidi does seem to be well liked as an MP. However, South Cambs has been a safe Tory seat for a very long time, even in 1997. I think she could win, but it would be very close and depends on who the Conservatives put up against her - I imagine they'd look for a strong candidate who isn't on the ERG end of the party.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,103
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I know this should appeal to a few PBers.

    Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773

    I cant get to Manchester! Damn it
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111591533457883136

    Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.
    SouthamObserver said:

    https://twitter.com/raynerskynews/status/1111573717782548482?s=21

    See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.

    At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.

    At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.

    Nandy has always given the impression she might vote for it, before pulling away. We should assume she never will.
    Indeed. Another in the long lists on both sides just seeking to avoid blame for various outcomes. She just wants to show she considered it at least.
    She always gives me the impression she’s about to burst into tears because teacher might tell her off

    If she was leader there’d be a lot of Nando related headlines for our amusement
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Benpointer said:

    What time is the vote today?

    2.30pm
    Is that when MPs go to the dentist?
    It's certainly when the ERG are having their credibility extracted.

    The Tories need a good scale and polish to get rid of the Raabs and Bakers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,610
    edited March 2019
    nico67 said:

    Tragic the BBC are trying to big up the chances of the deal passing . Obviously have taken orders from no 10 .

    Why is that 'tragic'? It would be disappointing if true, though of course for all accusations of political bias by the BBC, the bias of the accuser has to be considered and is usually key.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,605
    May saying she’s going to leave soon essentially means Labour voting for the deal are voting to bring in a hardline Brexiter .

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,895
    edited March 2019
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!

    Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.

    And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    This pseudo MV is surprisingly nerve-wracking.

    Its intriguing mostly because it might provably be the most popular option voted on to date. What happens once choices narrow further on indicative options is key.
    It's the non-option option. It kicks the can down the road a bit, which makes it popular with a lot of MPs.

    IMO anyone switching now reveals themselves as prioritising tactics over principles. If you can vote for this now, you could have voted for it the first or second time around.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,978

    Raab has gone over to the dark side.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,610
    Just catching up. Three amendments, none of which have any hope of passing, is that right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    nico67 said:

    Tragic the BBC are trying to big up the chances of the deal passing . Obviously have taken orders from no 10 .

    That makes no sense, because on this issue at least mps have very stubbornly stuck to their guns over and over. Media rumours of x or y happening have had no effect and so the idea the BBC is trying to influence things doesn't hold up, the idea no 10 is through them doesnt hold up because it just blows up on their face when, again, they fall short.

    More likely they just hope for a conclusion to the story rather than endless parliamentary pontification.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    The 75 Labour MPs from the most Leave supporting seats. Can she get an extra 40 votes from these? Probably not

    Susan Elan Jones
    "Nia Griffith
    "Stephen Hepburn
    "Kevan Jones
    "John Mann
    "Kelvin Hopkins
    "Sue Hayman
    "Dame Rosie Winterton
    "Ronnie Campbell
    "John Spellar
    "Angela Rayner
    "Chris Ruane
    "Richard Burgon
    "Helen Goodman
    "Tony Lloyd
    "Christina Rees
    "Sir Kevin Barron
    "Jess Phillips
    "Yvonne Fovargue
    "Jon Cruddas
    "Carolyn Harris
    "Keith Vaz
    "Nick Thomas-Symonds
    "Phil Wilson
    "Jon Trickett
    "Chris Elmore
    "Naz Shah
    "Yvette Cooper
    "Jack Dromey
    "Alex Norris
    "Dennis Skinner
    "Valerie Vaz
    "Emma Lewell-Buck
    "Clive Betts
    "Sharon Hodgson
    "Gloria De Piero
    "Caroline Flint
    "Imran Hussain
    "Khalid Mahmood
    "Emma Hardy
    "Gareth Snell
    "Chris Evans
    "Alex Cunningham
    "Jim McMahon
    "Kate Hollern
    "Graham P Jones
    "Bridget Phillipson
    "Dan Jarvis
    "Yasmin Qureshi
    "Stephen Kinnock
    "Judith Cummins
    "Andy McDonald
    "John Healey
    "Mike Hill
    "Gerald Jones
    "Nic Dakin
    "Julie Cooper
    "Ann Clwyd
    "Edward Miliband
    "Gordon Marsden
    "Anna Turley
    "Ruth Smeeth
    "Liam Byrne
    "Chris Bryant
    "Stephanie Peacock
    "Melanie Onn
    "Sarah Champion
    "Tom Watson
    "Emma Reynolds
    "Karl Turner
    "Nick Smith
    "Grahame Morris
    "Pat McFadden
    "Ian Austin
    "Adrian Bailey
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,610
    Sean_F said:


    Raab has gone over to the dark side.

    From the very dark side?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,850
    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!

    Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.

    And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.
    300/1
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Benpointer said:

    Just catching up. Three amendments, none of which have any hope of passing, is that right?

    The Speaker isn't calling them

    However Cox all but accepted the Snell amendment for when the legislation comes to the Commons
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    This pseudo MV is surprisingly nerve-wracking.

    Its intriguing mostly because it might provably be the most popular option voted on to date. What happens once choices narrow further on indicative options is key.
    It's the non-option option. It kicks the can down the road a bit, which makes it popular with a lot of MPs.

    IMO anyone switching now reveals themselves as prioritising tactics over principles. If you can vote for this now, you could have voted for it the first or second time around.

    Totally agree . They were all told of the risks if MV2 failed, things really have not changed much just because the extension has become real rather than predicted.

    As you say, mps love to can kick. With things already scheduled for next week why decide things now?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,960
    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1111600713031999488?s=21
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,610
    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!

    Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.

    And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.
    Hour of need and all that. As a lifelong non-Tory, even I could support Clarke at this point.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    nico67 said:

    May saying she’s going to leave soon essentially means Labour voting for the deal are voting to bring in a hardline Brexiter .

    Which should be great for Labour as the party will not put up with it and there will be defections and current MPs leaving the party to stand independently, which will usher in a socialist paradise. This argument stands up to no scrutiny.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,023
    edited March 2019
    Betting Post:

    I have run my pre-Ref portfolio very successfully to date which has been global dollar-weighted. If there is no deal I will benefit greatly as sterling sinks. If there is a deal (a position I have been advocating since the beginning) not so much with an estimated upside in GBP/USD to 1.45-48. I have just bought some out of the money GBP/USD calls just in case those madmen actually do vote the deal through!!

    Edit: DYOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ie call your MP!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Nemtynakht said:


    The 75 Labour MPs from the most Leave supporting seats. Can she get an extra 40 votes from these? Probably not

    Susan Elan Jones
    "Nia Griffith
    "Stephen Hepburn
    "Kevan Jones
    "John Mann
    "Kelvin Hopkins
    "Sue Hayman
    "Dame Rosie Winterton
    "Ronnie Campbell
    "John Spellar
    "Angela Rayner
    "Chris Ruane
    "Richard Burgon
    "Helen Goodman
    "Tony Lloyd
    "Christina Rees
    "Sir Kevin Barron
    "Jess Phillips
    "Yvonne Fovargue
    "Jon Cruddas
    "Carolyn Harris
    "Keith Vaz
    "Nick Thomas-Symonds
    "Phil Wilson
    "Jon Trickett
    "Chris Elmore
    "Naz Shah
    "Yvette Cooper
    "Jack Dromey
    "Alex Norris
    "Dennis Skinner
    "Valerie Vaz
    "Emma Lewell-Buck
    "Clive Betts
    "Sharon Hodgson
    "Gloria De Piero
    "Caroline Flint
    "Imran Hussain
    "Khalid Mahmood
    "Emma Hardy
    "Gareth Snell
    "Chris Evans
    "Alex Cunningham
    "Jim McMahon
    "Kate Hollern
    "Graham P Jones
    "Bridget Phillipson
    "Dan Jarvis
    "Yasmin Qureshi
    "Stephen Kinnock
    "Judith Cummins
    "Andy McDonald
    "John Healey
    "Mike Hill
    "Gerald Jones
    "Nic Dakin
    "Julie Cooper
    "Ann Clwyd
    "Edward Miliband
    "Gordon Marsden
    "Anna Turley
    "Ruth Smeeth
    "Liam Byrne
    "Chris Bryant
    "Stephanie Peacock
    "Melanie Onn
    "Sarah Champion
    "Tom Watson
    "Emma Reynolds
    "Karl Turner
    "Nick Smith
    "Grahame Morris
    "Pat McFadden
    "Ian Austin
    "Adrian Bailey

    Ian Austin counts as ind now doesnt he?

    In addition to overall loss size we should predict labour votes in favour. I'm saying less than 10, maybe 8. Abstentions dont count.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2019
    Betfair's market (currently at 5s for Yes) makes it pretty clear this is not MV3. So the market is v likely to be void.

    The gov't motion, OTOH, is at 6.4 and won't be void.

    So the difference is... MV3 this evening or tomorrow??
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,784
    By way of relief, a fine long read article on Hickenlooper:
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/29/john-hickenlooper-profile-president-2020-campaign-governor-226267

    No chance, of course, but US political biographies tend to be far more appealing than ours.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Buzzfeed moves Craig Tracey to Support

    So the running count is:

    Start with defeat by 149:

    31 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)

    Gives defeat by 86.

    There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions

    Gives defeat by 70



  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!

    Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.

    And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.
    maybe I should start a government petition
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,610
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Just catching up. Three amendments, none of which have any hope of passing, is that right?

    The Speaker isn't calling them

    However Cox all but accepted the Snell amendment for when the legislation comes to the Commons
    Thanks. I guess the rationale for not calling them is the IV process will continue on Monday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Nemtynakht said:

    nico67 said:

    May saying she’s going to leave soon essentially means Labour voting for the deal are voting to bring in a hardline Brexiter .

    Which should be great for Labour as the party will not put up with it and there will be defections and current MPs leaving the party to stand independently, which will usher in a socialist paradise. This argument stands up to no scrutiny.
    It's a load of old wank is what it is. The parliamentary numbers wont magically alter. Nandy is going right down in my estimation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,653
    TND seems to think the DUP might just be driving a very hard bargain over on Twitter.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    nico67 said:

    Tragic the BBC are trying to big up the chances of the deal passing . Obviously have taken orders from no 10 .

    As ever.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,978
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Buzzfeed moves Craig Tracey to Support

    So the running count is:

    Start with defeat by 149:

    31 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)

    Gives defeat by 86.

    There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions

    Gives defeat by 70





    Does that include Raab and Trevelyan?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,895
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    maybe I should start a government petition

    Please do. You can be #1 and I will be #2.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Raab on his feet now....
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    eek said:

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1111594465775505408

    one for the maybe column

    He does have the luxury of a 12000 majority in a seat that voted 60% Leave.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    RH1992 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Benpointer said:

    What time is the vote today?

    2.30pm
    Is that when MPs go to the dentist?
    It's certainly when the ERG are having their credibility extracted.

    The Tories need a good scale and polish to get rid of the Raabs and Bakers.
    I believe Jacob Rees Mogg would like to bring back indentured servitude
This discussion has been closed.