Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

13567

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    What’s the problem in trying to oust a democratically elected leader? If a leader were awful should people have to sit and wait for them to quit of their own accord?
    Well their reasoning for trying to oust him was that he was going to be awful, then he got their best election result in years. So their judgement is as poor as their principles
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnier confirms the EU will support an EU-UK Customs Union

    Which the Commons will likely vote for on Monday after preferences if the Withdrawal Agreement fails again today, well done ERG
    I think the Tory leadership contest just might be won by someone who says No to that though by which point the deal has already gone through ;)
    If a new Tory leader ignores a Commmons majority they will lose a VONC and general election inevitable.

    If the WA fails today and PD fails too the Deal will not yet have gone through but EU can see a Commons majority for permanent Customs Union
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    The ERG seem to be doing well catching the Speaker's eye, given they are say 1/6 of the House
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    New York Times: The Unlovable Theresa May

    Britain’s prime minister was never suited for politics. Now the country is dealing with the consequences.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/opinion/theresa-may.html

    Unsuited for politics is clearly nonsense. You dont last even on backbenches for that long without being suited for politics, and she held high office for years. She's unsuited to be PM but going that far is clearly silliness and projection.
    That's a second-order type of argument which is trumped by actual first-hand observation of, to take one example out of hundreds, the 2017 GE fiasco. Yes, it is heavily against the odds that someone utterly unsuited to politics should become PM, but she has managed it.
    May like brown is totally unsuited to leader / pm, but both showed ability to last as a minister, operating as technocrats.
    Exactly. The top job is not easy, few are great, most are crappy, some are very bad, but none means someone is unsuited to politics, even senior politics. There is a wealth of evidence that she is suited to it given her career. Observation of her time as leader and PM doesn’t erase decades of political life, much of it successful or at least competent enough as these things go.

    Timing has a lot to do with it as well. Imagine if the Blair/Brown and Cameron/May terms had been reversed. May and Brown might have been seen as good PMs.
    Even then, I doubt they would. They don't have what it takes to be a popular leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    I'm backing "No" at 1.18 :>

    *Go Baron
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Which might be a challenge for them in coming up with a platform that lives up to the name, once they move off political reform.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IanB2 said:

    The ERG seem to be doing well catching the Speaker's eye, given they are say 1/6 of the House

    Fairly, he no doubt adjudges that their contribution will be of especial interest today.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    New York Times: The Unlovable Theresa May

    Britain’s prime minister was never suited for politics. Now the country is dealing with the consequences.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/opinion/theresa-may.html

    Unsuited for politics is clearly nonsense. You dont last even on backbenches for that long without being suited for politics, and she held high office for years. She's unsuited to be PM but going that far is clearly silliness and projection.
    That's a second-order type of argument which is trumped by actual first-hand observation of, to take one example out of hundreds, the 2017 GE fiasco. Yes, it is heavily against the odds that someone utterly unsuited to politics should become PM, but she has managed it.
    May like brown is totally unsuited to leader / pm, but both showed ability to last as a minister, operating as technocrats.
    Exactly. The top job is not easy, few are great, most are crappy, some are very bad, but none means someone is unsuited to politics, even senior politics. There is a wealth of evidence that she is suited to it given her career. Observation of her time as leader and PM doesn’t erase decades of political life, much of it successful or at least competent enough as these things go.

    KLE, you sure you are not her other half, or are you just having a laugh
    I’m not saying she is good at all, but she at least knows how to operate in politics well enough to rise through the ranks and then survive in a difficult ministry for a long time. She has long since exhausted sympathy she might deserve for the difficulty of the job before her, she has made things so much worse through indecision and poor decisions respectively, but it is simply absurd to suggest someone lasts this long in politics while being unsuited for it. Even a total incompetent could be suited to politics and so last a long time, indeed there’s plenty who fit that description. She’s a bad PM, no question, but unsuited to politics? I don’t think the evidence of her career supports that.

    Have to say plenty of them who are totally useless get safe seats and are there for life , just look at Martin the previous speaker and there are plenty of others, longevity in Westminster does not require much talent, just get the right seat to start off.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnier confirms the EU will support an EU-UK Customs Union

    Which the Commons will likely vote for on Monday after preferences if the Withdrawal Agreement fails again today, well done ERG
    I think the Tory leadership contest just might be won by someone who says No to that though by which point the deal has already gone through ;)
    If a new Tory leader ignores a Commmons majority they will lose a VONC and general election inevitable.

    If the WA fails today and PD fails too the Deal will not yet have gone through but EU can see a Commons majority for permanent Customs Union
    A General Election under a new leader could be exactly what's needed.

    Oh and they'd only lose a VONC if Tory MPs decided to abandon the whip and sacrifice their seats since they'd be deselected and replaced in a VONC.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Which should be great for Labour as the party will not put up with it and there will be defections and current MPs leaving the party to stand independently, which will usher in a socialist paradise. This argument stands up to no scrutiny.

    Yes, Labour are well placed if the WA passes. As they are if it doesn't.

    The question I have is of the following 2 GE scenarios -

    (i) Pre Brexit, running on renegotiation and REF2.
    (ii) Post Brexit, running on CU/SM.

    Which are they more likely to win. I think (i).
    You ignore the fact most of the top Tory and Labour marginal seats voted Leave, if Labour is seen to have blocked Brexit that will hit them in the Northern and Midlands marginals even if they pile up even bigger majorities in the inner cities and university towns
    Unlike you to ignore more recent polling, HY?
    Labour need 2017 Tory Leave voters in marginal seats to win power and gain seats not Labour Remain voters who already vote Labour
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    What’s the problem in trying to oust a democratically elected leader? If a leader were awful should people have to sit and wait for them to quit of their own accord?
    Well their reasoning for trying to oust him was that he was going to be awful, then he got their best election result in years. So their judgement is as poor as their principles
    Perhaps so, but the point that a democratically elected leader does not and should not make someone immune to an ousting remains fair.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    What did Mr stop Brexit do before he was paid to be a protestor?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
    The party of Change Uk New Tiggers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    TGOHF said:

    Biggest GE factor is who is Con leader for the election.

    That is certainly a big factor.

    Wonder who Labour are hoping for?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Change UK is a shit name.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    What’s the problem in trying to oust a democratically elected leader? If a leader were awful should people have to sit and wait for them to quit of their own accord?
    Well their reasoning for trying to oust him was that he was going to be awful, then he got their best election result in years. So their judgement is as poor as their principles
    None of his doing, though. If May had shut up about foxhunting, and proposed a Royal Commission to look at dementia care, she'd have had a 20-30 majority.

    And I do wish we had been more honest in the past and described our set-up as an elective oligarchy, which it is, rather than a democracy, which would stop "Did Magna Carta die in vain?" tirades against those with the thoroughly good idea that we should overturn the result of the profoundly alien and unBritish referendum.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
    If Chuka holds Streatham next time round, we will see ‘CUK HOLD’ on the screen on big letters.

    Well done guys, well done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    kinabalu said:

    TGOHF said:

    Biggest GE factor is who is Con leader for the election.

    That is certainly a big factor.

    Wonder who Labour are hoping for?
    Gove
  • RoyalBlue said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
    If Chuka holds Streatham next time round, we will see ‘CUK HOLD’ on the screen on big letters.

    Well done guys, well done.
    Wrong, it'll be reported as CUK Gain.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Norm said:
    That seems a surprise to me. Thought she'd be a bitter ender.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    RoyalBlue said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
    If Chuka holds Streatham next time round, we will see ‘CUK HOLD’ on the screen on big letters.

    Well done guys, well done.
    I think the Labour machine is too strong there. He should switch to the Cities of London and Westminster, I think he'd have a better chance there as he can peel off both Tories and Labour.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    TGOHF said:

    Biggest GE factor is who is Con leader for the election.

    That is certainly a big factor.

    Wonder who Labour are hoping for?
    Gove
    Then they are dafter than I thought.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
    the can now team up with the old Lib Dens and form

    CUKOLD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnier confirms the EU will support an EU-UK Customs Union

    Which the Commons will likely vote for on Monday after preferences if the Withdrawal Agreement fails again today, well done ERG
    I think the Tory leadership contest just might be won by someone who says No to that though by which point the deal has already gone through ;)
    If a new Tory leader ignores a Commmons majority they will lose a VONC and general election inevitable.

    If the WA fails today and PD fails too the Deal will not yet have gone through but EU can see a Commons majority for permanent Customs Union
    A General Election under a new leader could be exactly what's needed.

    Oh and they'd only lose a VONC if Tory MPs decided to abandon the whip and sacrifice their seats since they'd be deselected and replaced in a VONC.
    Boles etc have said they would VONC the Government rather than allow No Deal and he has made clear he could not care less about his local party.

    In any case if the Deal fails May says she would press for lengthy extension and to contest the European elections given the House has voted against No Deal so it should not be an issue
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Change UK is a shit name.

    Not easy to come up with something that doesn't have the word 'Democrat' in really.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Change UK is a shit name.

    No less shit than historic names Conservatives or Labour. At least it says what they want.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RoyalBlue said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
    If Chuka holds Streatham next time round, we will see ‘CUK HOLD’ on the screen on big letters.

    Well done guys, well done.
    Wrong, it'll be reported as CUK Gain.
    And the joke was last seen flying over TSE's head ...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    New York Times: The Unlovable Theresa May

    Britain’s prime minister was never suited for politics. Now the country is dealing with the consequences.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/opinion/theresa-may.html

    Unsuited for politics is clearly nonsense. You dont last even on backbenches for that long without being suited for politics, and she held high office for years. She's unsuited to be PM but going that far is clearly silliness and projection.
    That's a second-order type of argument which is trumped by actual first-hand observation of, to take one example out of hundreds, the 2017 GE fiasco. Yes, it is heavily against the odds that someone utterly unsuited to politics should become PM, but she has managed it.
    Her largely trouble-free six years in charge of the Home Office are much better evidence that she's not "utterly unsuited" to politics. She might even have been a decent PM under other circumstances (heaven knows, the last few years would've tested anyone), but even so, she's still there and in charge against all the odds. Wrong person for the times, but that article is overkill.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Change UK is a shit name.

    Sounds like a supplier of small, loose change to major retailers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    Change UK is a shit name.

    No less shit than historic names Conservatives or Labour. At least it says what they want.
    To change the UK by keeping things the same?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    You ignore the fact most of the top Tory and Labour marginal seats voted Leave, if Labour is seen to have blocked Brexit that will hit them in the Northern and Midlands marginals even if they pile up even bigger majorities in the inner cities and university towns

    I'm not ignoring that. It is a clear risk.

    On the other hand, offering REF2 makes them the party likely to stop Brexit. It says to Remainers, you want to stop this disaster? OK you must swallow JC as PM. It might work. My sense is that it would.

    But a post Brexit GE, running just on closer alignment than the Tories? No, I fear that the Tories win that one quite easily.
    Probably on the former scenario only with SNP confidence and supply
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    David Jones sounds unreconciled.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnier confirms the EU will support an EU-UK Customs Union

    Which the Commons will likely vote for on Monday after preferences if the Withdrawal Agreement fails again today, well done ERG
    I think the Tory leadership contest just might be won by someone who says No to that though by which point the deal has already gone through ;)
    If a new Tory leader ignores a Commmons majority they will lose a VONC and general election inevitable.

    If the WA fails today and PD fails too the Deal will not yet have gone through but EU can see a Commons majority for permanent Customs Union
    A General Election under a new leader could be exactly what's needed.

    Oh and they'd only lose a VONC if Tory MPs decided to abandon the whip and sacrifice their seats since they'd be deselected and replaced in a VONC.
    Boles etc have said they would VONC the Governmemt rather than allow No Deal and he has made clear he could not care less about his local party
    looks like some weaknesses in the selection system locally
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnier confirms the EU will support an EU-UK Customs Union

    Which the Commons will likely vote for on Monday after preferences if the Withdrawal Agreement fails again today, well done ERG
    I think the Tory leadership contest just might be won by someone who says No to that though by which point the deal has already gone through ;)
    If a new Tory leader ignores a Commmons majority they will lose a VONC and general election inevitable.

    If the WA fails today and PD fails too the Deal will not yet have gone through but EU can see a Commons majority for permanent Customs Union
    A General Election under a new leader could be exactly what's needed.

    Oh and they'd only lose a VONC if Tory MPs decided to abandon the whip and sacrifice their seats since they'd be deselected and replaced in a VONC.
    Boles etc have said they would VONC the Governmemt rather than allow No Deal and he has made clear he could not care less about his local party
    To avoid No Deal yes. But we wouldn't be talking No Deal, the WA is the same for May's Deal or CU Deal. If we are in the WA then No Deal is impossible [thanks backstop] so no reason to continue with customs union to avoid No Deal anymore.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    If it looks like it won't go through (and it seems there are still too many unreconciled, despite the lame ERG folding) I wonder if anyone will make a name for themselves by switching support AWAY from the deal?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019

    Change UK is a shit name.

    Sounds like a supplier of small, loose change to major retailers.
    To me it sounds like some wanky corporate social media ad campaign that is trying to sound all woke.

    Buy these massively overpriced trainers and we will donate a £5 to trans awareness education scheme & stop all bigotry #changeUK
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    The SNP, all in favour of a referendum !

    Will they hear the result they don't like !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/full-list-the-tory-mps-who-have-switched-to-backing-mays-deal/

    "Tory rebels now backing May’s deal (28):

    Lucy Allan
    Richard Bacon
    Crispin Blunt
    Conor Burns
    Rehman Chishti
    Robert Courts
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Charlie Elphicke
    Michael Fabricant
    James Gray
    Mark Harper
    Gordon Henderson
    Boris Johnson
    Daniel Kawczynski
    Pauline Latham
    Anne Main
    Anne-Marie Trevelyan
    Esther McVey
    Tom Pursglove
    Dominic Raab
    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Henry Smith
    Royston Smith
    Ross Thomson
    Craig Tracey
    Shailesh Vara
    John Whittingdale

    Tory rebels who are considering backing May’s deal (6):

    Simon Clarke
    Chris Green
    Eddie Hughes
    Julia Lopez
    Lee Rowley
    Bob Stewart"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Change UK is a shit name.

    Sounds like a supplier of small, loose change to major retailers.
    To me it sounds like some wanky corporate social media ad campaign that is trying to sound all woke.
    Corbyn will enjoy the result in Streatham at the next election in particular I think.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    CHUKka
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited March 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnier confirms the EU will support an EU-UK Customs Union

    Which the Commons will likely vote for on Monday after preferences if the Withdrawal Agreement fails again today, well done ERG
    I think the Tory leadership contest just might be won by someone who says No to that though by which point the deal has already gone through ;)
    If a new Tory leader ignores a Commmons majority they will lose a VONC and general election inevitable.

    If the WA fails today and PD fails too the Deal will not yet have gone through but EU can see a Commons majority for permanent Customs Union
    A General Election under a new leader could be exactly what's needed.

    Oh and they'd only lose a VONC if Tory MPs decided to abandon the whip and sacrifice their seats since they'd be deselected and replaced in a VONC.
    Boles etc have said they would VONC the Governmemt rather than allow No Deal and he has made clear he could not care less about his local party
    To avoid No Deal yes. But we wouldn't be talking No Deal, the WA is the same for May's Deal or CU Deal. If we are in the WA then No Deal is impossible [thanks backstop] so no reason to continue with customs union to avoid No Deal anymore.
    The key now is getting a CU proposal agreed, with or without a PV, and then securing an extension of nine months, one year or two years from the EU. I understand both Monday and Wednesday are now earmarked to progress discussions.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/full-list-the-tory-mps-who-have-switched-to-backing-mays-deal/

    "Tory rebels now backing May’s deal (28):

    Lucy Allan
    Richard Bacon
    Crispin Blunt
    Conor Burns
    Rehman Chishti
    Robert Courts
    Iain Duncan Smith
    Charlie Elphicke
    Michael Fabricant
    James Gray
    Mark Harper
    Gordon Henderson
    Boris Johnson
    Daniel Kawczynski
    Pauline Latham
    Anne Main
    Anne-Marie Trevelyan
    Esther McVey
    Tom Pursglove
    Dominic Raab
    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Henry Smith
    Royston Smith
    Ross Thomson
    Craig Tracey
    Shailesh Vara
    John Whittingdale

    Tory rebels who are considering backing May’s deal (6):

    Simon Clarke
    Chris Green
    Eddie Hughes
    Julia Lopez
    Lee Rowley
    Bob Stewart"

    I have it at 30 or 31 switchers or 276 Ayes overall. There are a few more names on the list I expect to come across.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    I doubt she can tie her own shoelaces if some of her intereviews are anything to go by.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Pulpstar said:

    Change UK is a shit name.

    Sounds like a supplier of small, loose change to major retailers.
    To me it sounds like some wanky corporate social media ad campaign that is trying to sound all woke.
    Corbyn will enjoy the result in Streatham at the next election in particular I think.
    As will I - 6-4 Labour !
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Pulpstar said:

    Change UK is a shit name.

    Sounds like a supplier of small, loose change to major retailers.
    To me it sounds like some wanky corporate social media ad campaign that is trying to sound all woke.
    Corbyn will enjoy the result in Streatham at the next election in particular I think.
    I reckon Chuka will hold it. I know that seat very well.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited March 2019
    Assuming the vote fails today and we have IV2 on Monday, will cabinet members still be forced to abstain? I suspect the CU proposal might have crept over the line if the cabinet had been allowed to vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    I think I'd have voted for MV1 and 2, I might have switched away today.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    Assuming the vote fails today and we have IV2 on Monday, will cabinet members still be forced to abstain? I suspect the CU proposal might have crept over the line if the cabinet had been allowed to vote.

    TIGGER (CUK) abstentions would also have got it over the line - I reckon there's a deal to be done there
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    I doubt she can tie her own shoelaces if some of her intereviews are anything to go by.
    This is the same woman who Eagles helped get elected against... Ed Balls – one of the most capable politicians of recent times.

    Funny how life comes back to bite you!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited March 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    _Anazina_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Change UK is a shit name.

    Sounds like a supplier of small, loose change to major retailers.
    To me it sounds like some wanky corporate social media ad campaign that is trying to sound all woke.
    Corbyn will enjoy the result in Streatham at the next election in particular I think.
    I reckon Chuka will hold it. I know that seat very well.
    Labour will stick up a candidate as remainy as Thangam Debonnaire in the constituency, then attack Chuka on supporting the "enablers of austerity".
    Lab hold.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    Considering the only thing they all agree on is halting change, the latter certainly seems to be an issue.

    They believe in Change the same way as a Democratic People's Republic is democratically controlled by the people.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    More importantly everyone's going to call them centrist CUKs
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Chris said:

    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?

    And ultimately covered in shit and flushed down the drain.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    Not today, and it might be asymptoting just short.
    https://petition-track.uk/check-petition/241584/day
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    Don't read too much into a name. Over the past 40 years the Conservatives have trashed the idea that they are for conserving anything, or that they are cautious traditionalists. Labour are likewise not very much in touch with the working classes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I think the Changelings is quite an attractive name.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
    Um no. That assumes that all those who signed are part of the UK electorate. How many of the 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK have signed?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    A GONU which excludes 95% of the MPs from the largest party?

    No way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Pat McFadden out of tune with his constituents lol
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    HYUFD said:

    Probably on the former scenario only with SNP confidence and supply

    Yes, a clear Lab majority is hard to see. So they govern in tandem with the SNP. Which kind of makes the outcome more likely, since a great many centre ground remainers would be less uncomfortable with Corbyn if his hands are tied and he can't do the thing which terrifies them - bring about a massive and irreversible shift in the balance of wealth and power in favour of working people.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    _Anazina_ said:

    Chris said:

    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?

    And ultimately covered in shit and flushed down the drain.
    I must admit I hadn't realised until today that Andrex is so called because it was invented by Andrea Leadsom during her time at ICI (though it was unaccountably omitted from her Nobel Prize citation).
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited March 2019
    I’ve disengaged from the parliamentary votes etc. Listening to quality podcasts instead of refreshing twitter. IMO, ft alphaville is one of the best.

    Today’s episode is on brexit - wrt to Ireland. The bubble is slightly remain/economicsy as you might expect from the ft, but to their contributors credit, they’re self aware.

    The last 15 mins especially is v good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I had a nibble the other day. Just for fun really. Seems too far fetched even by Brexit standards.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    Assuming the vote fails today and we have IV2 on Monday, will cabinet members still be forced to abstain? I suspect the CU proposal might have crept over the line if the cabinet had been allowed to vote.

    You think Customs Union has a majority of the Cabinet?

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I think the Changelings is quite an attractive name.

    But why didn't they just call themselves "Change"? Why did it have to be CUK?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Jonathan said:

    Change UK is a shit name.

    No less shit than historic names Conservatives or Labour. At least it says what they want.
    To change the UK by keeping things the same?
    Well they don't want to do that, do they? They want to change the UK by pushing the assortment of extremists, thickos, bigots, xenophobes, quarterwits and clowns who have taken over the main two parties back into the wilderness.

    More power to their elbows.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Chris said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Chris said:

    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?

    And ultimately covered in shit and flushed down the drain.
    I must admit I hadn't realised until today that Andrex is so called because it was invented by Andrea Leadsom during her time at ICI (though it was unaccountably omitted from her Nobel Prize citation).
    You know that's going to become an urban myth now don't you?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Chris said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Chris said:

    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?

    And ultimately covered in shit and flushed down the drain.
    I must admit I hadn't realised until today that Andrex is so called because it was invented by Andrea Leadsom during her time at ICI (though it was unaccountably omitted from her Nobel Prize citation).
    :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    Chris said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Chris said:

    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?

    And ultimately covered in shit and flushed down the drain.
    I must admit I hadn't realised until today that Andrex is so called because it was invented by Andrea Leadsom during her time at ICI (though it was unaccountably omitted from her Nobel Prize citation).
    You know that's going to become an urban myth now don't you?
    Once it's on Wikipedia its fact!
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Much as I love the optimism, and much as KC has earned himself the humour of most Tories through his long service and general bonheur, I'm not seeing the coalition which gets to 325 on that VOC.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    _Anazina_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Change UK is a shit name.

    No less shit than historic names Conservatives or Labour. At least it says what they want.
    To change the UK by keeping things the same?
    Well they don't want to do that, do they? They want to change the UK by pushing the assortment of extremists, thickos, bigots, xenophobes, quarterwits and clowns who have taken over the main two parties back into the wilderness.

    More power to their elbows.
    So their vision of the UK is one that looks exactly like the UK right now except that watching PMQs won't make their delicate centrist souls sad any more?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    More importantly everyone's going to call them centrist CUKs
    They really aren't.

    Sorry.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Assuming the vote fails today and we have IV2 on Monday, will cabinet members still be forced to abstain? I suspect the CU proposal might have crept over the line if the cabinet had been allowed to vote.

    You think Customs Union has a majority of the Cabinet?

    I do. But we may never know.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    “A” customs union is crap we have to allow tariff free access to other countries but it’s not reciprocated. The only customs union worth being in is “the” customs union but the EU will not allow that as it threatens the integrity of the single market
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    More importantly everyone's going to call them centrist CUKs
    They really aren't.

    Sorry.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=cuk&src=typd
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kjohnw said:

    “A” customs union is crap we have to allow tariff free access to other countries but it’s not reciprocated. The only customs union worth being in is “the” customs union but the EU will not allow that as it threatens the integrity of the single market
    A positive vote for a customs union means a general election.

    Hence why Labour might vote for it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Assuming the vote fails today and we have IV2 on Monday, will cabinet members still be forced to abstain? I suspect the CU proposal might have crept over the line if the cabinet had been allowed to vote.

    You think Customs Union has a majority of the Cabinet?

    I do. But we may never know.
    When only 33 Tories backed it first time around, why would a majority of the Cabinet have done so?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    More importantly everyone's going to call them centrist CUKs
    They really aren't.

    Sorry.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=cuk&src=typd
    Change.org threatening to sue apparently.
This discussion has been closed.