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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kjohnw said:

    “A” customs union is crap we have to allow tariff free access to other countries but it’s not reciprocated. The only customs union worth being in is “the” customs union but the EU will not allow that as it threatens the integrity of the single market
    GE here we come.

    As I keep saying :smiley:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Chris said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Chris said:

    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?

    And ultimately covered in shit and flushed down the drain.
    I must admit I hadn't realised until today that Andrex is so called because it was invented by Andrea Leadsom during her time at ICI (though it was unaccountably omitted from her Nobel Prize citation).
    You know that's going to become an urban myth now don't you?
    Once it's on Wikipedia its fact!
    I found out only recently how simple it is to become a Wikipedia editor (to expand and correct the entry for our village).

    I shall resist the temptation to add the Andrex story to Leadsom's entry for fear of finding out how easy it is to be banned as a Wiki editor. :smile:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I have him down as a rebel last time. So a new pro-Deal swticher
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    More importantly everyone's going to call them centrist CUKs
    They really aren't.

    Sorry.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=cuk&src=typd
    Yes, some people on Twitter are calling them that. You can find anything you like on Twitter.

    They'll just be generally referred to as Change, I'd venture.

    The bigger question is what signature colour will they choose? Stick with charcoal or grab the available pink?

    I'd go with pink.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    What’s the problem in trying to oust a democratically elected leader? If a leader were awful should people have to sit and wait for them to quit of their own accord?
    Well their reasoning for trying to oust him was that he was going to be awful, then he got their best election result in years. So their judgement is as poor as their principles
    Perhaps so, but the point that a democratically elected leader does not and should not make someone immune to an ousting remains fair.
    As part of a series it is meaningful

    Umunna never has the guts to stand for anything independently (leadership bottle/by election) and has a habit of trying to overturn votes he disagrees with (Corbyn/Brexit), or run off. Not the kind of change the country is crying out for I'd say

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Anyone asked these nutjobs whether they want MPs to vote for the deal or not? Seeing as the latter leads away from Brexit.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Change UK is a shit name.

    No less shit than historic names Conservatives or Labour. At least it says what they want.
    To change the UK by keeping things the same?
    Well they don't want to do that, do they? They want to change the UK by pushing the assortment of extremists, thickos, bigots, xenophobes, quarterwits and clowns who have taken over the main two parties back into the wilderness.

    More power to their elbows.
    So their vision of the UK is one that looks exactly like the UK right now except that watching PMQs won't make their delicate centrist souls sad any more?
    If you think that's how the UK looks now I have a bridge to sell you. Populism is on the rise.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?

    If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.

    And in practice that probably means October - has there ever been a GE in July/Aug/Sept?

    And all the immediate pressures are now - if a one year extension is agreed then the pressure will be off come June anyway.

    An early GE must mean a May v Corbyn contest - anyone expecting an early GE should bet on Corbyn in next PM market.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    More importantly everyone's going to call them centrist CUKs
    They really aren't.

    Sorry.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=cuk&src=typd
    Yes, some people on Twitter are calling them that. You can find anything you like on Twitter.

    They'll just be generally referred to as Change, I'd venture.

    The bigger question is what signature colour will they choose? Stick with charcoal or grab the available pink?

    I'd go with pink.
    So anyone who joins and then leaves will be ex-change? And if they go abroad, I assume foreign ex-change?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,811

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
    Um no. That assumes that all those who signed are part of the UK electorate. How many of the 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK have signed?
    A lot of those 3.5mn will be joining the UK electorate in the next few years, incidentally. I think it's safe to assume they will not provide fertile ground for the Conservative party.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    The shambolic and one-side way in which her party tried to manage Brexit. I dare say if they'd embraced your own model for leaving, she would still be in the Tory party today Richard.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
    Um no. That assumes that all those who signed are part of the UK electorate. How many of the 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK have signed?
    A lot of those 3.5mn will be joining the UK electorate in the next few years, incidentally. I think it's safe to assume they will not provide fertile ground for the Conservative party.
    Or already have since June 2016
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019
    MikeL said:

    But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?

    If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.

    Two to three months with Parliament shutdown while Con elect a new leader and we then have a general election sounds like heaven to me.

    It'd better be three months without pay and expenses too...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Quite like the Tiggers' new name – Change.

    Any news on their signature colour? Pink is available.

    Personally, I don't like it. First of all there are organisations like change.org, which might not align perfectly with the party's views. Secondly, change is not necessarily for the better ...
    More importantly everyone's going to call them centrist CUKs
    They really aren't.

    Sorry.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=cuk&src=typd
    Yes, some people on Twitter are calling them that. You can find anything you like on Twitter.

    They'll just be generally referred to as Change, I'd venture.

    The bigger question is what signature colour will they choose? Stick with charcoal or grab the available pink?

    I'd go with pink.
    So anyone who joins and then leaves will be ex-change? And if they go abroad, I assume foreign ex-change?
    :lol:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    RoyalBlue said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    The party of CUK ?
    If Chuka holds Streatham next time round, we will see ‘CUK HOLD’ on the screen on big letters.

    Well done guys, well done.
    Wrong, it'll be reported as CUK Gain.
    When Chuka starts panicking as soon as something doesn't go his way again we can call it a Fluster CUK
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    MikeL said:

    But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?

    If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.

    And in practice that probably means October - has there ever been a GE in July/Aug/Sept?

    And all the immediate pressures are now - if a one year extension is agreed then the pressure will be off come June anyway.

    An early GE must mean a May v Corbyn contest - anyone expecting an early GE should bet on Corbyn in next PM market.

    1945 was on 5th July. Can recall seeing the posters in the sunshine from my bedroom window.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    The shambolic and one-side way in which her party tried to manage Brexit. I dare say if they'd embraced your own model for leaving, she would still be in the Tory party today Richard.
    She could have voted for the Deal rather than opposing it from the start in spite of what she claimed to her constituents. But then like most politicians she is far too dishonest to do that. The only principle she believes in is staying in her seat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?

    If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.

    Two to three months with Parliament shutdown while Con elect a new leader and we then have a general election sounds like heaven to me.

    It'd better be three months without pay and expenses too...
    Also gives one or two of them more time to get through their court cases, appeals, parole boards etc etc.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    If she were principled, she would call a by-election.

    She hasn’t.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    The shambolic and one-side way in which her party tried to manage Brexit. I dare say if they'd embraced your own model for leaving, she would still be in the Tory party today Richard.
    She could have voted for the Deal rather than opposing it from the start in spite of what she claimed to her constituents. But then like most politicians she is far too dishonest to do that. The only principle she believes in is staying in her seat.
    She is Dee C Lee to Chuka's Paul Weller in the CUKs Style Council of Equality
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    GE here we come.

    As I keep saying :smiley:

    Yes, the only realistic path to avoid a GE is that a cross party coalition with a new PM is formed and holds together for long enough to pilot through a new softer brexit deal and/or a second referendum.

    I see that as unlikely. A 2019 GE has now (finally!) gone to better than evens chance in the betting, and even where it is now (1.85) it is IMO more of a back than a lay.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Labour's plan :D:D:D:D:D:D
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    I don't think she lied to constituents at all that I am aware of. Unless you hold to the rather ridiculous arcane idea that MPs have to stand on a manifesto dictated by some teenaged scribbler from No10, or conjured by the 2 brain celled bonce of Mr Thicky, and that they should all agree to it without deviation when elected, like so many automatons from a rubber stamping chamber in North Korea.

    It is similarly ridiculous to say that just because someone disagrees with your world view they are unprincipled. I happen to think Jacob Rees-Mogg is a complete plonker, but I would never say he is unprincipled. Boris Johnson is, of course, a completely different kettle of bullshit.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
    Um no. That assumes that all those who signed are part of the UK electorate. How many of the 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK have signed?
    A lot of those 3.5mn will be joining the UK electorate in the next few years, incidentally. I think it's safe to assume they will not provide fertile ground for the Conservative party.
    Until they actually have to I doubt many will have taken UK citizenship so my point stands.

    I would also dispute that they may not vote Tory (though I have no interest in whether they do or not). Until such times as Corbyn buggers off and is replaced by someone sane I suspect the most likely course of action for many of them will be to abstain or to vote on the issues at the time which by then hopefully will not include Brexit.

    For the record I speak as someone who will certainly not vote Tory as long as May is in charge. My vote is up for grabs if anyone wants it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Corbyn sounds like he's choking on his cornflakes any time anything about another vote comes out. 5 whole seconds in his speech about any sort of ref then straight to a GE !
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Anyone asked these nutjobs whether they want MPs to vote for the deal or not? Seeing as the latter leads away from Brexit.
    I suspect just about every one of them will be wanting us to Leave without a Deal today - and declare war on the EU a few minutes later. Anything less would be unpatriotic.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    kinabalu said:

    GE here we come.

    As I keep saying :smiley:

    Yes, the only realistic path to avoid a GE is that a cross party coalition with a new PM is formed and holds together for long enough to pilot through a new softer brexit deal and/or a second referendum.

    I see that as unlikely. A 2019 GE has now (finally!) gone to better than evens chance in the betting, and even where it is now (1.85) it is IMO more of a back than a lay.
    All roads lead to Prime minister Kenneth Clarke (if I say it enough it might come true!)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    I don't think she lied to constituents at all that I am aware of. Unless you hold to the rather ridiculous arcane idea that MPs have to stand on a manifesto dictated by some teenaged scribbler from No10, or conjured by the 2 brain celled bonce of Mr Thicky, and that they should all agree to it without deviation when elected, like so many automatons from a rubber stamping chamber in North Korea.

    It is similarly ridiculous to say that just because someone disagrees with your world view they are unprincipled. I happen to think Jacob Rees-Mogg is a complete plonker, but I would never say he is unprincipled. Boris Johnson is, of course, a completely different kettle of bullshit.
    She is also representing the views of her constituents, as shown in the referendum that matter so much to Richard.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    I don't think she lied to constituents at all that I am aware of. Unless you hold to the rather ridiculous arcane idea that MPs have to stand on a manifesto dictated by some teenaged scribbler from No10, or conjured by the 2 brain celled bonce of Mr Thicky, and that they should all agree to it without deviation when elected, like so many automatons from a rubber stamping chamber in North Korea.

    It is similarly ridiculous to say that just because someone disagrees with your world view they are unprincipled. I happen to think Jacob Rees-Mogg is a complete plonker, but I would never say he is unprincipled. Boris Johnson is, of course, a completely different kettle of bullshit.
    She put out personal statements in her own leaftlets and on twitter and other media that she stood by the result of the referendum.

    Direct quotes:

    “We must respect the democratic outcome of the referendum and work positively together to ensure we make Brexit a success.”

    “I was a remainer, but the EU ref result is final and cannot be rerun.”

    She lied to her constituents to get elected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    kinabalu said:

    GE here we come.

    As I keep saying :smiley:

    Yes, the only realistic path to avoid a GE is that a cross party coalition with a new PM is formed and holds together for long enough to pilot through a new softer brexit deal and/or a second referendum.

    I see that as unlikely. A 2019 GE has now (finally!) gone to better than evens chance in the betting, and even where it is now (1.85) it is IMO more of a back than a lay.
    All roads lead to Prime minister Kenneth Clarke (if I say it enough it might come true!)
    I'm thinking Hague myself. Have a nibble on that too.

    A mate has £2 on Chukka. I may join him, just in case. He would gloat for months if it came off and I wasn't party to it.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    kinabalu said:

    GE here we come.

    As I keep saying :smiley:

    Yes, the only realistic path to avoid a GE is that a cross party coalition with a new PM is formed and holds together for long enough to pilot through a new softer brexit deal and/or a second referendum.

    I see that as unlikely. A 2019 GE has now (finally!) gone to better than evens chance in the betting, and even where it is now (1.85) it is IMO more of a back than a lay.
    But with Corbyn leading Labour we might well end up with another hung parliament and no resolution of anything.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn sounds like he's choking on his cornflakes any time anything about another vote comes out. 5 whole seconds in his speech about any sort of ref then straight to a GE !

    Wait till he has to renew Trident next parliament. They'll never get him to sign the paperwork.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
    Um no. That assumes that all those who signed are part of the UK electorate. How many of the 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK have signed?
    A lot of those 3.5mn will be joining the UK electorate in the next few years, incidentally. I think it's safe to assume they will not provide fertile ground for the Conservative party.
    Until they actually have to I doubt many will have taken UK citizenship so my point stands.
    You doubt... I think that many already have or are actively in the process of applying for UK citizenship.

    Yor opinion against mine.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?

    If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.

    Two to three months with Parliament shutdown while Con elect a new leader and we then have a general election sounds like heaven to me.

    It'd better be three months without pay and expenses too...
    Also gives one or two of them more time to get through their court cases, appeals, parole boards etc etc.
    :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Trying to figure out what May is trying to say. Seems to be, Vote for the motion, because it is meaningless.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    eristdoof said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
    Um no. That assumes that all those who signed are part of the UK electorate. How many of the 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK have signed?
    A lot of those 3.5mn will be joining the UK electorate in the next few years, incidentally. I think it's safe to assume they will not provide fertile ground for the Conservative party.
    Until they actually have to I doubt many will have taken UK citizenship so my point stands.
    You doubt... I think that many already have or are actively in the process of applying for UK citizenship.

    Yor opinion against mine.

    Yep I wasn't saying you were wrong. But out of perhaps 40 or 50 EU citizens I know either as friends or work colleagues not a single one has chosen to take UK citizenship since the referendum. In contrast I am standing as a reference for a Vietnamese friend and his wife who have applied for UK citizenship and hope to hear by May.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Chris said:

    So are we heading for an Andrex Brexit now?

    Soft, strong and very long?

    No. No brexit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    I don't think she lied to constituents at all that I am aware of. Unless you hold to the rather ridiculous arcane idea that MPs have to stand on a manifesto dictated by some teenaged scribbler from No10, or conjured by the 2 brain celled bonce of Mr Thicky, and that they should all agree to it without deviation when elected, like so many automatons from a rubber stamping chamber in North Korea.

    It is similarly ridiculous to say that just because someone disagrees with your world view they are unprincipled. I happen to think Jacob Rees-Mogg is a complete plonker, but I would never say he is unprincipled. Boris Johnson is, of course, a completely different kettle of bullshit.
    She put out personal statements in her own leaftlets and on twitter and other media that she stood by the result of the referendum.

    Direct quotes:

    “We must respect the democratic outcome of the referendum and work positively together to ensure we make Brexit a success.”

    “I was a remainer, but the EU ref result is final and cannot be rerun.”

    She lied to her constituents to get elected.
    Since her constituency - in which I live - was strongly remain, you could argue that those statements cost her votes.

    Besides, when the situation changes (and it sure as heck has changed), reasonable people can change their minds. We're nearly three years on from the referendum, and it's all a bit of a mess, isn't it?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    _Anazina_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    TIG to apply to be listed as a political party so they should be a permanent feature of polls soon

    Tried to oust a Democratically elected leader of Labour

    Trying to overturn a democratic referendum

    Refuse to call by elections to ratify their switch of party

    What a refreshing change! The Anti Democratic League for the bored middle class
    TIG to be renamed ChangeUK under Leader Heidi Allen

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1111582509517717505?s=20
    Well, for the first time ever, I have a party leader for an MP!
    Heidi is a great choice for party leader – media savvy, telegenic, friendly. Normal.
    Shame she’s also vacuous and unprincipled.
    She is indeed principled – hence why she quit the unprincipled assortment of fuckwits that is the modern day Tory party.
    So what principle led her to lie to her own constituents repeatedly during the 2017 election campaign?
    I don't think she lied to constituents at all that I am aware of. Unless you hold to the rather ridiculous arcane idea that MPs have to stand on a manifesto dictated by some teenaged scribbler from No10, or conjured by the 2 brain celled bonce of Mr Thicky, and that they should all agree to it without deviation when elected, like so many automatons from a rubber stamping chamber in North Korea.

    It is similarly ridiculous to say that just because someone disagrees with your world view they are unprincipled. I happen to think Jacob Rees-Mogg is a complete plonker, but I would never say he is unprincipled. Boris Johnson is, of course, a completely different kettle of bullshit.
    She is also representing the views of her constituents, as shown in the referendum that matter so much to Richard.
    So why did she go out of her way to say she would abide by the referendum result? If she were so sure that she would be able to get re-elected without lying, why did she lie?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580


    Since her constituency - in which I live - was strongly remain, you could argue that those statements cost her votes.

    Besides, when the situation changes (and it sure as heck has changed), reasonable people can change their minds. We're nearly three years on from the referendum, and it's all a bit of a mess, isn't it?

    You have my pity. Being represented by a liar like that cannot be something any reasonable person would be proud of.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Richard, I don't think you are familiar with the area she represents. It is one of the strongest remain areas in the country. With respect to those quotes, they are not necessarily lies. I think the benefit of the doubt and some respect is due to those that change their mind when the facts become clearer, and they become clearer by the day that Brexit is a fiasco. I am sure you know the quote from John Maynard Keynes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Any chance the gov can get to within 50? I have a personal bet with someone who thinks it will that I don’t want to lose.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,811

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition might reach 6 million today or tomorrow.

    https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

    More people have signed the petition than voted for all the other parties (non-CON or LAB) during the 2017 GE.

    More people have signed the petition than voted for UKIP at its peak in the 2015 GE.
    And over one eighth of the Total UK Electorate have now signed the 'Revoke' petition.
    Um no. That assumes that all those who signed are part of the UK electorate. How many of the 3.5 million EU citizens living in the UK have signed?
    A lot of those 3.5mn will be joining the UK electorate in the next few years, incidentally. I think it's safe to assume they will not provide fertile ground for the Conservative party.
    Until they actually have to I doubt many will have taken UK citizenship so my point stands.

    I would also dispute that they may not vote Tory (though I have no interest in whether they do or not). Until such times as Corbyn buggers off and is replaced by someone sane I suspect the most likely course of action for many of them will be to abstain or to vote on the issues at the time which by then hopefully will not include Brexit.

    For the record I speak as someone who will certainly not vote Tory as long as May is in charge. My vote is up for grabs if anyone wants it.
    Some of them have already started the process, based on my own circle. Of course my circle is probably heavily biased towards the hideous Liberal Metropolitan Elite but my impression is they're not queueing up to thank the Tories for throwing their lives into confusion and creating a toxic nationalistic atmosphere. They will also help tilt the inevitable rejoin the EU referendum in the direction of yes in a few years, and perhaps even a revocation referendum if they can get the paperwork through in time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    But with Corbyn leading Labour we might well end up with another hung parliament and no resolution of anything.

    We might. And what a pickle that would be. Still, it could never be as fiendishly set up to fail on Brexit as this one surely.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    kle4 said:

    Any chance the gov can get to within 50? I have a personal bet with someone who thinks it will that I don’t want to lose.

    It's currently defeat by 80, with 50 unlikely but not impossible
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    You have to hand it to Theresa May, she never gives up on her deal.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724


    Since her constituency - in which I live - was strongly remain, you could argue that those statements cost her votes.

    Besides, when the situation changes (and it sure as heck has changed), reasonable people can change their minds. We're nearly three years on from the referendum, and it's all a bit of a mess, isn't it?

    You have my pity. Being represented by a liar like that cannot be something any reasonable person would be proud of.
    I don't need your pity, thanks. I actually quite like what she's done. You're traditionally someone who's against the party system and whipping in particular; I think what she's done is perfectly in line with that.

    She's representing the views of her constituents; at least as far as we can tell.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Buzzfeed moves Fallon to Support meaning 33 of 75 Tory rebels now backing the government (plus one previously absent).
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Mauve said:
    Lol
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Mauve said:
    Political party trumps website to me.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.

    Yes, she's completely demolished Labour's arguments against the motion. Not that it will do her or the country any good.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313


    Since her constituency - in which I live - was strongly remain, you could argue that those statements cost her votes.

    Besides, when the situation changes (and it sure as heck has changed), reasonable people can change their minds. We're nearly three years on from the referendum, and it's all a bit of a mess, isn't it?

    You have my pity. Being represented by a liar like that cannot be something any reasonable person would be proud of.
    As I have met her on a number of occasions Richard, I have to tell you, you are talking bollox. She strikes me as a highly principled person. You don't agree with her world view, fine, but she is no more a liar than anyone else. Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage she ain't
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    well this seems very much like Endgame for this premiership.
  • JRM in the aye lobby.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Divison.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.

    Yes, she's completely demolished Labour's arguments against the motion. Not that it will do her or the country any good.
    Corbyn can smell his GE.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Norm said:

    Mauve said:
    Lol
    And predictable. An unforced error that won't get them good publicity.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.

    For all the attacks she receives she is more knowledgeable, more competent, and grown up than so many ,including Corbyn, and may only be missed when she has resigned
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    well this seems very much like Endgame for this premiership.

    I feel sorry for her. Hope we don't end up with Raab, Johnson or Hunt next.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    My guess is that the government gets 285 votes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    edited March 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.

    For all the attacks she receives she is more knowledgeable, more competent, and grown up than so many ,including Corbyn, and may only be missed when she has resigned
    Yep, for all her faults she's probably going to be a damned sight better than whichever wonder follows next.
    Hunt probably the best option for the country, though I do have some err... personal hopes for Steve Baker ;)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Can't Corbyn sit in the Commons without having Dawn Butler next to him?

    Is she his carer?

    Or perhaps he is just using her for the colour of her skin....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019
    https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1111636378209734656
    Quislings! Traitors! The worst betrayal for 200 years! Even worse than when Bob Dylan went electric!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Can't Corbyn sit in the Commons without having Dawn Butler next to him?

    Is she his carer?

    Or perhaps he is just using her for the colour of her skin....

    How dare you suggest such a thing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Richard, I don't think you are familiar with the area she represents. It is one of the strongest remain areas in the country. With respect to those quotes, they are not necessarily lies. I think the benefit of the doubt and some respect is due to those that change their mind when the facts become clearer, and they become clearer by the day that Brexit is a fiasco. I am sure you know the quote from John Maynard Keynes.

    I have little or no respect for MPs even at the best of times. But I certainly have no respect for MPs that lie openly to get themselves elected.
  • Can't Corbyn sit in the Commons without having Dawn Butler next to him?

    Is she his carer?

    Or perhaps he is just using her for the colour of her skin....

    Can't be for her political talents (or lack thereof)
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Can't help feeling with a bit of planning the Govt could have pulled it off today by splitting it into two stages, reaching out, trying to find consensus on the PD element, and by May not announcing she was going to quit if it passed. Properly planned, and signalled a week ago when the EU confirmed the extension arrangements, this might have worked.

    Announcing she was quitting was what scuppered a potentially otherwise good way of breaking the impasse. In any event, had it passed, it would have been a moment of utter triumph for her not reason to quit.

    She should be quitting in half an hour when yet another defeat on her deal is announced.

    Sigh,,,
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.

    For all the attacks she receives she is more knowledgeable, more competent, and grown up than so many ,including Corbyn, and may only be missed when she has resigned
    Yep, for all her faults she's probably going to be a damned sight better than whichever wonder follows next.
    Hunt probably the best option for the country, though I do have some err... personal hopes for Steve Baker ;)
    I think David Lidington as PM while they sort out the election of Steve Baker as party leader would be entirely appropriate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Can't Corbyn sit in the Commons without having Dawn Butler next to him?

    Is she his carer?

    Or perhaps he is just using her for the colour of her skin....

    Next Labour leader !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019
    Totally off topic....just hearing about south africas new interwebs content laws. They make article 13 look well thought out.

    All content has to be sent for classification, and by all it includes YouTube videos, twitch streams and sharing any unclassified content via twitter /. Facebook etc those sharing it are also liable. So retweeting a YouTube video can get you locked up.

    Sounds also a perfect way to censor anything the government doesn't like.
  • Can't Corbyn sit in the Commons without having Dawn Butler next to him?

    Is she his carer?

    Or perhaps he is just using her for the colour of her skin....

    She has a permanent misery face
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Can't Corbyn sit in the Commons without having Dawn Butler next to him?

    Is she his carer?

    Or perhaps he is just using her for the colour of her skin....

    Can't be for her political talents (or lack thereof)
    Well precisely...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.

    For all the attacks she receives she is more knowledgeable, more competent, and grown up than so many ,including Corbyn, and may only be missed when she has resigned
    Yep, for all her faults she's probably going to be a damned sight better than whichever wonder follows next.
    Hunt probably the best option for the country, though I do have some err... personal hopes for Steve Baker ;)
    I think David Lidington as PM while they sort out the election of Steve Baker as party leader would be entirely appropriate.
    And Dawn Butler for Labour leader :)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on the "Noe" side of the bet, but I think this is a very decent winding up speech by May actually.

    For all the attacks she receives she is more knowledgeable, more competent, and grown up than so many ,including Corbyn, and may only be missed when she has resigned
    She is lacking in the one thing that is essential for a leader, emotional intelligence. Blair had it, Cameron had it, Brown and May both lack it and is that defect that is the downfall for both.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Paddy Power seems to have withdrawn the market on the month of the next election that we were having fun with this morning.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Pulpstar said:

    Can't Corbyn sit in the Commons without having Dawn Butler next to him?

    Is she his carer?

    Or perhaps he is just using her for the colour of her skin....

    Next Labour leader !
    Only in her own head - and there is plenty of space in there...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    JRM in the aye lobby.

    That would be the same Moggster who stated he would stick with the Bowler Hats?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019
    Lot tighter than you would expect, Tory rebels must have been cut to the minimum:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1111638074352680961
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    Did May really say this ? (from BBC website):
    "Today we can show we can come together in the national internet..."
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Can't help feeling with a bit of planning the Govt could have pulled it off today by splitting it into two stages, reaching out, trying to find consensus on the PD element, and by May not announcing she was going to quit if it passed. Properly planned, and signalled a week ago when the EU confirmed the extension arrangements, this might have worked.

    Announcing she was quitting was what scuppered a potentially otherwise good way of breaking the impasse. In any event, had it passed, it would have been a moment of utter triumph for her not reason to quit.

    She should be quitting in half an hour when yet another defeat on her deal is announced.

    Sigh,,,

    That would be assuming the the ERG holdouts were open to reason. They're not and hopes of anything but a most godawful customs union style brexit are now dashed.
  • JRM in the aye lobby.

    That would be the same Moggster who stated he would stick with the Bowler Hats?
    Emily Maitlis shamed him into it, by accusing him of taking the DUP whip .
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1111636378209734656
    Quislings! Traitors! The worst betrayal for 200 years! Even worse than when Bob Dylan went electric!

    Worse than the fall of Singapore? (speaking of which, how did Crispin, The King of Hyperbole Blunt vote?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andrew said:
    Remarkably precise. My estimate is a little worse for gov't, c.60.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Dan Sabbagh

    @dansabbagh
    Labour sources in the division lobbies saying they think they have won comfortably
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268

    Divison.

    Yes, since 2016.
  • Dan Sabbagh

    @dansabbagh
    Labour sources in the division lobbies saying they think they have won comfortably

    So, by Meaningful Vote 5 she should be almost over the line.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    So this isn’t a MV. What the hell is the point of that?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    https://twitter.com/carldinnen/status/1111636378209734656
    Quislings! Traitors! The worst betrayal for 200 years! Even worse than when Bob Dylan went electric!

    Worse than the fall of Singapore? (speaking of which, how did Crispin, The King of Hyperbole Blunt vote?
    He said he would vote Aye.
This discussion has been closed.