Theresa May: "I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this house."
You can't ask for a much clearer hint than that!
Note that this gives Labour an even bigger incentive than they had before to continue with their wrecking tactics next Monday.
A GE might well return an even more hung Parliament, although it might clear out some of the awkward squad.
A GE would result in a more remainey parliament than the one we already have and a number of prominent leavers, particularly Johnson and IDS, would be at serious risk of losing their seats to tactical voting by remainers. And Labour would almost certainly put some form of commitment to a second referendum in its manifesto, as would the Lib dems and the SNP, so unless the Tories win a majority the new parliament is likely to contain a majority of MPs elected on a promise of a second vote.
I think we have to have a GE now. An utterly deadlocked parliament, even if the EU offers us the mercy of a long extension, the current Govt cannot do anything with it with this Parliament.
However, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we ended up with a similarly constituted House after that.
I actually begin to feel a bit* sorry for the large majority of Leave campaigners who are now seeing the prize they fought so hard for ripped from their grasp... by their own side.
An election now would be about Brexit, whatever Corbyn would prefer. As long as May can gather 80% of the Leaver vote and some anti-Corbynites, she will get her majority.
Let’s get on with it.
It is not the only way. In fact it is the ultimate can kick with no guarantee of a solution, so it is the opposite of the way to fix it.
Richard, I don't think you are familiar with the area she represents. It is one of the strongest remain areas in the country. With respect to those quotes, they are not necessarily lies. I think the benefit of the doubt and some respect is due to those that change their mind when the facts become clearer, and they become clearer by the day that Brexit is a fiasco. I am sure you know the quote from John Maynard Keynes.
I have little or no respect for MPs even at the best of times. But I certainly have no respect for MPs that lie openly to get themselves elected.
Richard, IMO you're out of order on this. Heaven forfend an MP follow the way her constituents voted in the referendum!
Not at all. It is not the fact that she is a devout Remainer that is the problem, it is the fact she lied about it repeatedly at the election to make sure she got elected. Ken Clarke has my great admiration even though he is a devout Remainer because he has always been honest about his position and made clear he opposed Brexit at the last election.
Not at all. She had made her personal views very clear wrt the referendum. I should know - I got the articles she wrote in our village paper! Now, I realise that you are an arch-leaver, but that doesn't make your comments about her correct.
`It's a bit of a mystery why she joined the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems She agreed with the Conservatives about very little.
No, the Conservative Party joined UKIP en masse.
There were a few genuine Conservatives like Heidi left over from the selection processes from the days when a decent part of the party believed in sound government and a pro-business economy.
I don’t think there’s anything genuinely Conservative about Heidi Allen. She seemed to have joined the wrong party by mistake and was attacking Government policy within days of being elected.
If you’d mentioned Anna Soubry, I might agree with you.
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
Richard, I don't think you are familiar with the area she represents. It is one of the strongest remain areas in the country. With respect to those quotes, they are not necessarily lies. I think the benefit of the doubt and some respect is due to those that change their mind when the facts become clearer, and they become clearer by the day that Brexit is a fiasco. I am sure you know the quote from John Maynard Keynes.
I have little or no respect for MPs even at the best of times. But I certainly have no respect for MPs that lie openly to get themselves elected.
Richard, IMO you're out of order on this. Heaven forfend an MP follow the way her constituents voted in the referendum!
Not at all. It is not the fact that she is a devout Remainer that is the problem, it is the fact she lied about it repeatedly at the election to make sure she got elected. Ken Clarke has my great admiration even though he is a devout Remainer because he has always been honest about his position and made clear he opposed Brexit at the last election.
Not at all. She had made her personal views very clear wrt the referendum. I should know - I got the articles she wrote in our village paper! Now, I realise that you are an arch-leaver, but that doesn't make your comments about her correct.
I can only assume you were not paying attention when she said this then:
“We must respect the democratic outcome of the referendum and work positively together to ensure we make Brexit a success.”
“I was a remainer, but the EU ref result is final and cannot be rerun.”
Yes, I was paying attention. And you have not been paying attention as the project that you have supported for decades to leave the EU has descended into farce.
The situation has changed. Reasonable people can change their minds. But Allen has not suddenly changed from a Europhobe into a remainer; she's always been a steadfast remainer. That's always been clear.
Allen was opposed from the moment she actually got re-elected. She was indeed a steadfast remainer which is why she was dishonest to make the statements she did to get herself re-elected.
I will be highly amused if she and the rest of the Tiggers get wiped out in a forthcoming election.
I do though hope that Remainers of integrity like Clarke stand again and survive. A man of integrity unlike the MP who represents you.
Richard, I don't think you are familiar with the area she represents. It is one of the strongest remain areas in the country. With respect to those quotes, they are not necessarily lies. I think the benefit of the doubt and some respect is due to those that change their mind when the facts become clearer, and they become clearer by the day that Brexit is a fiasco. I am sure you know the quote from John Maynard Keynes.
I have little or no respect for MPs even at the best of times. But I certainly have no respect for MPs that lie openly to get themselves elected.
Richard, IMO you're out of order on this. Heaven forfend an MP follow the way her constituents voted in the referendum!
Not at all. It is not the fact that she is a devout Remainer that is the problem, it is the fact she lied about it repeatedly at the election to make sure she got elected. Ken Clarke has my great admiration even though he is a devout Remainer because he has always been honest about his position and made clear he opposed Brexit at the last election.
Not at all. She had made her personal views very clear wrt the referendum. I should know - I got the articles she wrote in our village paper! Now, I realise that you are an arch-leaver, but that doesn't make your comments about her correct.
`It's a bit of a mystery why she joined the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems She agreed with the Conservatives about very little.
I actually disagree with that as well. She's Conservative (if a centrist one) on many issues: yes, she has been against the party on some home issues, but then you could say the same about Cameron pre-2005 when the party was rather to the right.
Like Soubry, her attitude to the EU is the biggest point of divergence from the party.
Remainers Bebb, Greening, Grieve, Gyimah, Johnson, Lee
So a 28-6 split.
286 + 28 = 314 344 - 28 = 316.
So even if every ERGer had voted with the Gov't they'd still have lost.
And lost by more than that if instead the 6 had supported
However you look at it the Arch leavers have done this
Unless you're suggesting MPs only vote a certain way because others are doing so (Which would demean them greatly) it's demonstrably a DUP/Remain hard block on the WA passing.
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
But what would tory policy on Brexit be in this GE? They can't just deliver leaflets with FUCK KNOWS, WE'RE PAST CARING on them.
Theresa May: "I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this house."
You can't ask for a much clearer hint than that!
Note that this gives Labour an even bigger incentive than they had before to continue with their wrecking tactics next Monday.
A GE might well return an even more hung Parliament, although it might clear out some of the awkward squad.
A GE would result in a more remainey parliament than the one we already have and a number of prominent leavers, particularly Johnson and IDS, would be at serious risk of losing their seats to tactical voting by remainers. And Labour would almost certainly put some form of commitment to a second referendum in its manifesto, as would the Lib dems and the SNP, so unless the Tories win a majority the new parliament is likely to contain a majority of MPs elected on a promise of a second vote.
Yep that's the long and short of it. And this time any ukip/BP protest will siphon more from the Tories
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
But what would tory policy on Brexit be in this GE? They can't just deliver leaflets with FUCK KNOWS, WE'RE PAST CARING on them.
Well, voters always say they want politicians to be straight with them...
Richard, I don't think you are familiar with the area she represents. It is one of the strongest remain areas in the country. With respect to those quotes, they are not necessarily lies. I think the benefit of the doubt and some respect is due to those that change their mind when the facts become clearer, and they become clearer by the day that Brexit is a fiasco. I am sure you know the quote from John Maynard Keynes.
I have little or no respect for MPs even at the best of times. But I certainly have no respect for MPs that lie openly to get themselves elected.
Richard, IMO you're out of order on this. Heaven forfend an MP follow the way her constituents voted in the referendum!
Not at all. It is not the fact that she is a devout Remainer that is the problem, it is the fact she lied about it repeatedly at the election to make sure she got elected. Ken Clarke has my great admiration even though he is a devout Remainer because he has always been honest about his position and made clear he opposed Brexit at the last election.
Not at all. She had made her personal views very clear wrt the referendum. I should know - I got the articles she wrote in our village paper! Now, I realise that you are an arch-leaver, but that doesn't make your comments about her correct.
`It's a bit of a mystery why she joined the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems She agreed with the Conservatives about very little.
I actually disagree with that as well. She's Conservative (if a centrist one) on many issues: yes, she has been against the party on some home issues, but then you could say the same about Cameron pre-2005 when the party was rather to the right.
Like Soubry, her attitude to the EU is the biggest point of divergence from the party.
Another liar.
Oh dear Richard, "I don't agree with them so therefore they are a liar"
Allen was opposed from the moment she actually got re-elected. She was indeed a steadfast remainer which is why she was dishonest to make the statements she did to get herself re-elected.
I will be highly amused if she and the rest of the Tiggers get wiped out in a forthcoming election.
I do though hope that Remainers of integrity like Clarke stand again and survive. A man of integrity unlike the MP who represents you.
Richard, you are wrong; her personal views were well known before that. I like Clarke as well, but you are being very unfair on Allen. Your Europhobia isn't allowing you to see that the situation has very much changed.
I actually begin to feel a bit* sorry for the large majority of Leave campaigners who are now seeing the prize they fought so hard for ripped from their grasp... by their own side.
(*Only a very little bit)
Agreed. We remainers have been very lucky that a mixture of overweening arrogance and blind stupidity has led them to trash their own cause so comprehensively.
As our country slowly burns, there is, at least, a special satisfaction in knowing that Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Jacob Rees Mogg have revealed their duplicity, stupidity and self-interest fully to the entire world for absolutely no discernible gain.
I'm not lifting a finger to help the Tories in a snap election. I don't think I'd be able to stay on message. Yeah this Andrea Jenkyns, she really deserves to lose her seat.
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.
Waste of time. It's been pretty comprehensively shown that Labour voters are motivated more by bread and butter issues and not Brexit. Interesting, though, that the Tories agree that Brexit has been stopped.
I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Bridgen, Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
Indeed...If there's another Brexit election, the tory party tears itself apart.
Referendum is much safer for the Tories. Protects what they have. No Corbyn. No risk of a big third party protest. Best chance of allowing both sides to stay on board. And if the Brexit albatross is lifted from the next PM, it wasn't their fault
The best way forward for the Tory party now is for May to resign and Ken Clarke to take over as PM to take them thorough a GE on a policy of soft Brexit. As long as Corbyn is still there I think this would mean a Tory majority at least on paper.
But that is what is best for the Tory party, not necessarily what is best for the country.
That might backfire, seeing as there may well be a majority against Brexit. When the Tories start blowing the dog whistle it is time to start preparing for a Labour government.
I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Bridgen, Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
Indeed...If there's another Brexit election, the tory party tears itself apart.
Referendum is much safer for the Tories. Protects what they have. No Corbyn. No risk of a big third party protest. Best chance of allowing both sides to stay on board.
Nah, it rips the Tory party apart and would lead to an almost immediate election. It is probably a more likely route to Corbyn as PM than just going straight for a GE now.
Windows 7 was released ten years ago; that's an eternity in computer terms. There are very good reasons for this move; and not just because it makes MS's job easier. IIRC they also offered a free upgrade to Win10.
There is only so much you can do to make an OS that old secure. I believe Apple often stops such updates after five years - I think OS X Mountain Lion last had a security update in 2017, and it was released in 2012. And as for Android ...
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
That's the point.
Windows 7 was stable and supported for decade.
Windows 10 has yet to stabilize, and the early versions are already unsupported. You have to upgrade continuously.
Built in obsolescence
It makes sense. Each revision of Windows 10 has brought with it improvements. The first couple of revisions were pretty ropey. It’s now better than Windows 7, quicker on similar hardware but still think the start menu in Windows 7 is much much better...
Had the 34 Conservatives voted FOR the WA it would have passed 320-310 so that's a load of nonsense from a desperate and rattled Conservative Party Chairman.
I won't be getting anything new immediately (don't have the money) but I'll have to start thinking about my options. On the plus side, I don't do anything too serious, mostly my work (and messing about) is just e-mail, word processor, and spreadsheet stuff, although I do a spot of art as a hobby and colour that on my PC too.
*sighs*
One more entirely unnecessary bill to come. Still, time to think about it.
I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
Had the 34 Conservatives voted FOR the WA it would have passed 320-310 so that's a load of nonsense from a desperate and rattled Conservative Party Chairman.
Well he's about to become very very busy. Possibly on Monday.
Anecdotally, I do think people are finally starting to get worried. I don’t recall seeing so many people in the office talking about outcomes of MV1 and MV2.
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
The HoC does not control any of the votes of the other 27 member of the EU, let alone all of them.
That's perfectly true but they almost certainly won't resist a longer extension. And, besides, if it gets to April 11th and there's no other option, the HoC will Revoke Article 50.
Waste of time. It's been pretty comprehensively shown that Labour voters are motivated more by bread and butter issues and not Brexit. Interesting, though, that the Tories agree that Brexit has been stopped.
And most people are capable of remembering that the Tories and DUP are supposed to have a majority. Rule One: it is always the government's fault
Mr. Jessop, I was aware of the free upgrade. And that it was bricking some older machines, which mine is. If someone offers to 'improve' my OS but it might make my machine inoperable, that's not a bargain, even if it is free.
As an aside, if anyone has a PS4, don't get Anthem. It's bricking some consoles. That said, your PS4 will continue to work even after January next year.
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The best way forward for the Tory party now is for May to resign and Ken Clarke to take over as PM to take them thorough a GE on a policy of soft Brexit. As long as Corbyn is still there I think this would mean a Tory majority at least on paper.
But that is what is best for the Tory party, not necessarily what is best for the country.
Yay, we agree again well the first part anyway! Sadly I don't think it will happen,
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
Just like that. No problem.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
The HoC does not control any of the votes of the other 27 member of the EU, let alone all of them.
That's perfectly true but they almost certainly won't resist a longer extension. And, besides, if it gets to April 11th and there's no other option, the HoC will Revoke Article 50.
No Deal will not happen. Move on.
The HoC cannot revoke without May agreeing. She may well do of course but it is not in the power of the HoC to force her to do so against her will. All they can do is get rid of her Government by a VoNC and even then she remains PM until a successor is chosen.
Which is a long way of saying that waiting until 11th April is leaving it too late unless you are certain May will revoke.
Comments
Mr. B, thanks. I only had a little stake (as usual for bets of that nature).
Theresa May can stay on as acting PM to manage any day to day decisions while all this is going on.
I think we could all do with a three month shutdown of this House Of Crooks.
(*Only a very little bit)
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1111642859860647939
If you’d mentioned Anna Soubry, I might agree with you.
The immediate decisions have to be taken in the next few weeks - way before a GE can produce a new Parliament.
If agreement made in next two weeks to extend for a year - then no need for the GE.
(*) 9 May if dissolved on Monday - but that means motion must be put forward today.
Leavers
Afriyie, Baker, Baron, Bone, Braverman, Bridgen, Cash, Chope, Duddridge, Francois, Fysh, Hollobone, Holloway, Jayawardena, Jenkin, Jenkyns, Jones, Lewis, Mackinlay, Morris, Patel, Paterson, Redwood, Robertson, Rosindell, Rowley, Villiers
Remainers
Bebb, Greening, Grieve, Gyimah, Johnson, Lee
So a 28-6 split.
286 + 28 = 314
344 - 28 = 316.
So even if every ERGer had voted with the Gov't they'd still have lost.
My expectations are very low.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
Can we make him PM?
The fascist shroudwaving from Leavers is the last resort of the scoundrel.
Flint, Mann, Barron now joined by Rosie Cooper and Jim Fitzpatrick.
I will be highly amused if she and the rest of the Tiggers get wiped out in a forthcoming election.
I do though hope that Remainers of integrity like Clarke stand again and survive. A man of integrity unlike the MP who represents you.
However you look at it the Arch leavers have done this
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
I realise this could be a point from any time during the last 3 years.
https://twitter.com/MicrosoftSB/status/1107582143318970368
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
How long do you expect it to last?
Baker et al are not Conservatives. They are reactionary ideologues.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
Well unless Tissue Price stands again.
I'll happily campaign for him.
It has been very impressive, if awful, how well party discipline on Brexit has held up.
Windows 7 was stable and supported for decade.
Windows 10 has yet to stabilize, and the early versions are already unsupported. You have to upgrade continuously.
Built in obsolescence
But that is what is best for the Tory party, not necessarily what is best for the country.
One SNP abstention caught my eye - I confess I've never heard of John McNally but I didn't think the SNP were the abstaining type.
There is only so much you can do to make an OS that old secure. I believe Apple often stops such updates after five years - I think OS X Mountain Lion last had a security update in 2017, and it was released in 2012. And as for Android ...
I won't be getting anything new immediately (don't have the money) but I'll have to start thinking about my options. On the plus side, I don't do anything too serious, mostly my work (and messing about) is just e-mail, word processor, and spreadsheet stuff, although I do a spot of art as a hobby and colour that on my PC too.
*sighs*
One more entirely unnecessary bill to come. Still, time to think about it.
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.
No Deal will not happen. Move on.
You could not make it up
As an aside, if anyone has a PS4, don't get Anthem. It's bricking some consoles. That said, your PS4 will continue to work even after January next year.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.
Which is a long way of saying that waiting until 11th April is leaving it too late unless you are certain May will revoke.