55% isn't bad if all anti Brexiteers vote for him. Though I can hardly think of a worse PM in waiting than Corbyn if he'll abandon Brexit he'll get my vote
I think the outcome of what the 34 Tory rebels did today can be measured by the gurning expression of Remainiacs everywhere. They know Brexit has been shafted.
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
TIG won't do anything unless its subject to the PV.
Waste of time. It's been pretty comprehensively shown that Labour voters are motivated more by bread and butter issues and not Brexit. Interesting, though, that the Tories agree that Brexit has been stopped.
And most people are capable of remembering that the Tories and DUP are supposed to have a majority. Rule One: it is always the government's fault
Had the 34 Conservatives voted FOR the WA it would have passed 320-310 so that's a load of nonsense from a desperate and rattled Conservative Party Chairman.
The best way forward for the Tory party now is for May to resign and Ken Clarke to take over as PM to take them thorough a GE on a policy of soft Brexit. As long as Corbyn is still there I think this would mean a Tory majority at least on paper.
But that is what is best for the Tory party, not necessarily what is best for the country.
Yay, we agree again well the first part anyway! Sadly I don't think it will happen,
At least 50-60 MPs would probably resign the whip and set up a new/UKIP party.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
You want to run modern software on your old hardware, on an Internet that is ultra-modern. If you don't connect your old computer to the Internet, you should be fine.
This is an area I know a little about, and it's frightening how much the Internet changes things. You have to guard against new exploits all the time, and old hardware lacks so many protections that new hardware have.
Earliest possible date for GE realistically now 16 May (*).
The immediate decisions have to be taken in the next few weeks - way before a GE can produce a new Parliament.
If agreement made in next two weeks to extend for a year - then no need for the GE.
(*) 9 May if dissolved on Monday - but that means motion must be put forward today.
My good lady and my 55th wedding anniversary !!!
Congratulations. That is a fantastic achievement.
Thanks David and we are closer than ever, as we are to our family
Brilliant. We are relative beginners at 34 years but I don’t think that we have ever been happier than we are now (despite my better half being increasingly cross about Brexit).
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.
If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !
If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.
I would vote Labour to unseat a Tigger, I might even vote SNP.
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
Just like that. No problem.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.
The EU may not be against. And, things can happen even if people don't want them to happen, if they utterly refuse to back down.
"...here is the list of Tory MPs who voted against the withdrawal agreement at the second meaningful vote (MV2) but for it this afternoon: Lucy Allan, Richard Bacon, Crispin Blunt, Conor Burns, Rehman Chishti, Simon Clarke, Damian Collins, Rosie Cooper, Robert Courts, Richard Drax, Iain Duncan Smith, Charlie Elphicke, Michael Fabricant, Sir Michael Fallon, Jim Fitzpatrick, James Gray, Chris Green, Mark Harper, Gordon Henderson, Eddie Hughes, Boris Johnson, Gareth Johnson, Daniel Kawczynski, Pauline Latham, Andrew Lewer, Ian Liddell-Grainger, Jonathan Lord, Esther McVey, Anne Main, Sheryll Murray, Tom Pursglove, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Henry Smith, Royston Smith, Bob Stewart, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson, Craig Tracey, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Shailesh Vara, John Whittingdale."
What a bunch of snowflakes, eh! Where's their backbone?!
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
TIG won't do anything unless its subject to the PV.
Yes, that might be a condition of their support, Slackbladder.
No great surprise then - I thought it might be a little closer than it was but 34 Conservative MPs have killed the WA. Had they all supported their Prime Minister the WA would have carried 320-310 so if anyone wants to blame someone for "stopping Brexit" there's 34 you can start with.
What now?
Basically we are down to two options - leave without a WA on 12/4 or go back cap in hand to the EU and seek a long extension which will involve fighting the EU elections. One is a quick death for the Conservatives, the other slow and painful I'm tempted to suggest but that may not be the case.
May is finished - she adds her name to the list of Conservative PMs brought down by Europe. The immediate concern is whether the EU will be minded to offer a long extension and whether we will be minded to accept it. The pain of No Deal (if there is any) may be short and sharp in comparison to a long extension especially in an electorate where the "Let's Get It Over With" party are doing very well and may now pivot to No Deal.
When we're here with no brexit this time next year, one of the Brexit parties (Not sure which one) will probably have gained back to 10% or so I think.
The best way forward for the Tory party now is for May to resign and Ken Clarke to take over as PM to take them thorough a GE on a policy of soft Brexit. As long as Corbyn is still there I think this would mean a Tory majority at least on paper.
But that is what is best for the Tory party, not necessarily what is best for the country.
The membership wouldn't have it, and Ken is way past it now. I've been struck recently by how old and dishevelled he looks. I'm not sure he could take the rigours of leading a campaign from the front.
55% isn't bad if all anti Brexiteers vote for him. Though I can hardly think of a worse PM in waiting than Corbyn if he'll abandon Brexit he'll get my vote
The other bad thing about that poster (other than encouraging Remainers to vote Labour) is that they make Corbyn look reasonably presentable. Surely they could choose a scuffier picture ffs! There are enough of them
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.
Or that Ford should come round and install ABS on your Mk.1 Escort in tbe middle of the night for free.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.
All this moaning could be avoided if PBers did the sensible thing and moved to the Apple platform...........
We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses
Mr. Jessop, hmm. That does make me wonder about maybe keeping the desktop, disconnecting it, using it for writing etc, and using a laptop for online stuff. Might be cheaper than buying a new desktop.
Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.
I think the outcome of what the 34 Tory rebels did today can be measured by the gurning expression of Remainiacs everywhere. They know Brexit has been shafted.
Brexit has managed a sexual contortion worthy of the Kama Sutra and shafted itself
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?
Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
Apparently Mark Stone has just said the EU have commented that wording on the political declaration that would have majority in the HOC could be inserted in days and brexit happen fairly quickly
"...here is the list of Tory MPs who voted against the withdrawal agreement at the second meaningful vote (MV2) but for it this afternoon: Lucy Allan, Richard Bacon, Crispin Blunt, Conor Burns, Rehman Chishti, Simon Clarke, Damian Collins, Rosie Cooper, Robert Courts, Richard Drax, Iain Duncan Smith, Charlie Elphicke, Michael Fabricant, Sir Michael Fallon, Jim Fitzpatrick, James Gray, Chris Green, Mark Harper, Gordon Henderson, Eddie Hughes, Boris Johnson, Gareth Johnson, Daniel Kawczynski, Pauline Latham, Andrew Lewer, Ian Liddell-Grainger, Jonathan Lord, Esther McVey, Anne Main, Sheryll Murray, Tom Pursglove, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Henry Smith, Royston Smith, Bob Stewart, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson, Craig Tracey, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Shailesh Vara, John Whittingdale."
What a bunch of snowflakes, eh! Where's their backbone?!
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
I don't think "yeah yeah Corbyn" does justice to the brand impact
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.
I would vote Labour to unseat a Tigger, I might even vote SNP.
I have that option, although I think that Gavin Shuker has no chance of retaining his seat anyway.
We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections
tough shit...it's almost nailed on that'll happen. I expect TIG will do well.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?
Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.
A Mk.1 has become a horribly unsafe car by modern standards.
We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses
Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.
But all they have said since formation is what they are against - mainly Brexit and antisemitism
There has been no attempt to articulate anything approaching a vision for change.
They are an empty vessel attempting to make some noise. And rather failing.
We now need to offically stop Brexit. It's undeliveable. Fuck the ERG, fuck the DUP.
Revoke Article 50 until we figure out what the hell is going on.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses
I know where I would like to "implant" Brexit. The vote was far too simplistic. Easy to say with hindsight, but it needed far too much interpretation. Leave might mean leave, but which door should we go out of is disputed. If Brexit dies, it is of its own contradictions
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections
tough shit...it's almost nailed on that'll happen. I expect TIG will do well.
It’s impossible to avoid without no deal is it not? ANd if you elect you might as well have them be there for some time - I suspect the extension will be as long as it takes for parliament to become comfortable with revocation,
Oh I hadn't realised the vote was early today! Well surely it's revoke or long delay now. Brexit is no longer invincible and I don't see parliament letting it get to the point where No Deal becomes an option. But long extension much more likely I think. The EU will agree to it, its further humiliation to us so all rosy for them
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?
There is a great deal of evidence that Labour voters are much less likely to see Brexit as an important driver for their voting preference than Tories. Which partly explains why many Labour MPs in leave seats have backed a second referendum.
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
Just like that. No problem.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.
The EU may not be against. And, things can happen even if people don't want them to happen, if they utterly refuse to back down.
Quite. The default position is the default position and there doesn't seem much unity or goodwill on which a compromise could be manufactured and the, there's the EU!
If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.
The SNP and LDs unlikely to support PM Corbyn under any circumstances & LAB has lost a significant number of MPs since GE17.
Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.
But would less safe Tories in other areas lose as a result of stay at home supporters angry at what happened to the deselected?
Earliest possible date for GE realistically now 16 May (*).
The immediate decisions have to be taken in the next few weeks - way before a GE can produce a new Parliament.
If agreement made in next two weeks to extend for a year - then no need for the GE.
(*) 9 May if dissolved on Monday - but that means motion must be put forward today.
My good lady and my 55th wedding anniversary !!!
Congratulations. That is a fantastic achievement.
Thanks David and we are closer than ever, as we are to our family
Brilliant. We are relative beginners at 34 years but I don’t think that we have ever been happier than we are now (despite my better half being increasingly cross about Brexit).
May’s deal had nothing going for it so no matter what pressure is applied by whom to whom it was always going to fail. May’s critical errors were agreeing to defer meaningful talks on trade by agreeing to the EU agenda and talking up no deal but absolutely failing to prepare for it.
The U.K. has a binary choice - no deal or no Brexit. I would prefer no deal but either is more preferable to what we have now. I don’t see any mileage in a lighter Brexit, whatever that means or a second referendum. I’d rather have another election with a new Tory leader untainted by May’s failures. Too many MPs simply want to be paid for doing as directed by Brussels. That has to change.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.
It's a bit worse than that. The best analogy would be if Ford said we no longer guarantee that Mk1 Escort is safe and advice you stop using it; which would scupper your insurance I suspect.
I agree that individual PC users can probably carry on with Win7 and not get too worried. But many businesses are in a tricky situation. I was involved in a number of very expensive PC upgrade projects for banks necessitated not because the PCs weren't performing but because the operating systems were going out of support and the FSA/FCA wouldn't allow us to operate in that mode.
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?
There is a great deal of evidence that Labour voters are much less likely to see Brexit as an important driver for their voting preference than Tories. Which partly explains why many Labour MPs in leave seats have backed a second referendum.
So why did leaver seats like Mansfield fall at the 2017 GE?
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.
IDS a once safe Tory Greater London seat could now be washed away in a remain tsunami, it’s in the con most marginal 40 seats.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
Just because Microsoft stop supporting it does not mean it will stop working, just that things like updates and patches will no longer be available. It is like saying that garages should still be selling leaded petrol.
Or that Ford should come round and install ABS on your Mk.1 Escort in tbe middle of the night for free.
May’s deal had nothing going for it so no matter what pressure is applied by whom to whom it was always going to fail. May’s critical errors were agreeing to defer meaningful talks on trade by agreeing to the EU agenda and talking up no deal but absolutely failing to prepare for it.
The U.K. has a binary choice - no deal or no Brexit. I would prefer no deal but either is more preferable to what we have now. I don’t see any mileage in a lighter Brexit, whatever that means or a second referendum. I’d rather have another election with a new Tory leader untainted by May’s failures. Too many MPs simply want to be paid for doing as directed by Brussels. That has to change.
Quite a good post until the penultimate sentence which could have been from the lips of Mark Francois and therefore very silly. Are you Mark Francois?
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?
Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.
Who's said "the engine is unsafe (next year?) and you have to upgrade"?
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
Just like that. No problem.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.
TM has just said the same so maybe she is moving towards the compromise coming out next week
But it is not bogged down when it happens 14 days today without majority approval and actual legislation
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
Apparently Mark Stone has just said the EU have commented that wording on the political declaration that would have majority in the HOC could be inserted in days and brexit happen fairly quickly
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections
I thought it might be fun and now I'm convinced it would.
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.
But would less safe Tories in other areas lose as a result of stay at home supporters angry at what happened to the deselected?
If you look at polling in detail, Conservative voters have swung very much in favour of the WA, so I'd say not.
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
How many 1970s Escorts have been cosseted to the extent of running now?
Not many (and those that have are rising rapidly in value) but Ford never said sorry that engine we supplied you in your Mk1 is going to become unsafe next year so you have to upgrade to a new car.
A Mk.1 has become a horribly unsafe car by modern standards.
Yes, yes, I get that. Although most Mk1s are now probably very safe in the sense that by their nature they are driven very carefully.
Anyway this is not an argument Microsoft or Apple are going to listen to me on, so I think I'll stick to Brexit (Bremain)
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
Just like that. No problem.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.
TM has just said the same so maybe she is moving towards the compromise coming out next week
But it is not bogged down when it happens 14 days today without majority approval and actual legislation
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
Surely Hoey's win in Vauxhall was plum pudding proof that the average voter simply ticks the party box and doesn't care who their MP is ?
There is a great deal of evidence that Labour voters are much less likely to see Brexit as an important driver for their voting preference than Tories. Which partly explains why many Labour MPs in leave seats have backed a second referendum.
So why did leaver seats like Mansfield fall at the 2017 GE?
I said it was a less significant factor, not that it was completely irrelevant.
In the case of Mansfield I understand that the previous incumbent had a poor reputation locally and was not seen as an effective MP.
But will the Conservatives agree to a GE with May still as leader?
If they won't, there can't be a GE until July at the earliest - two months even for an accelerated Con leadership contest + 5 weeks for GE campaign.
And in practice that probably means October - has there ever been a GE in July/Aug/Sept?
And all the immediate pressures are now - if a one year extension is agreed then the pressure will be off come June anyway.
An early GE must mean a May v Corbyn contest - anyone expecting an early GE should bet on Corbyn in next PM market.
1945 was on 5th July. Can recall seeing the posters in the sunshine from my bedroom window.
It was later in Scotland. The count took place on 26th July.
That was because they had to bring the servicemen's votes (including my fathers (probably the last, or last but one time he voted Labour) back from wherever. It was 12th, according Wikipedia in 'several constituencies' Nelson & Colne was on it's annual town holiday, so it was later still there.
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.
I would vote Labour to unseat a Tigger, I might even vote SNP.
I have that option, although I think that Gavin Shuker has no chance of retaining his seat anyway.
The new battlelines are interesting. I would vote Labour to unseat an ERG member. I don't have that option as our MP is somewhat bland and "tow the line"
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
Most of the hardcore rebels are in very safe Conservative seats, so I think that official Conservative candidates would win with reduced majorities.
IDS a once safe Tory Greater London seat could now be washed away in a remain tsunami, it’s in the con most marginal 40 seats.
Chingford is only a marginally Remain seat, though, and the Conservatives did well there in the local elections.
May’s deal had nothing going for it so no matter what pressure is applied by whom to whom it was always going to fail. May’s critical errors were agreeing to defer meaningful talks on trade by agreeing to the EU agenda and talking up no deal but absolutely failing to prepare for it.
The U.K. has a binary choice - no deal or no Brexit. I would prefer no deal but either is more preferable to what we have now. I don’t see any mileage in a lighter Brexit, whatever that means or a second referendum. I’d rather have another election with a new Tory leader untainted by May’s failures. Too many MPs simply want to be paid for doing as directed by Brussels. That has to change.
Quite a good post until the penultimate sentence which could have been from the lips of Mark Francois and therefore very silly. Are you Mark Francois?
Microsoft want to support a single operating system - what is wrong with that especially as the update to 10 was free
But Windows 10 won't run on many older PCs. There is something a bit insidious about the collusion between software and hardware companies to force people to keep upgrading. After all if you were happy with your 1970s Ford Escort you could still be running it today provided you looked after it.
Is that true?
It used to be that way, but I thought that Vista was the last Windows like that, with subsequent editions being more efficient and not requiring an upgrade to a more powerful computer to run.
Change UK is a really bland uninspired name, and their supporters will all be called cuks now. What is it with pro Europeans and bland campaign names (Britain stronger in Europe for example).
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.
CUK is "cock" in Norwegian.
I am sure Corbyn must mean c**t somewhere in the world. Oh, hang on...
Mark Stone has just reported the same but the EU and Barnier must be getting very worried
They say they are ready for no deal but of course they are not and when are they putting up border posts in Ireland
I suspect the EU plan will be to offer a long extension while some breed of Customs Union model is sorted out. I think that's winnable in Parliament, IV + TIG gets it through.
Apparently Mark Stone has just said the EU have commented that wording on the political declaration that would have majority in the HOC could be inserted in days and brexit happen fairly quickly
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections
I thought it might be fun and now I'm convinced it would.
If there is a GE none of these people can be allowed to stand as Tory candidates.
So they stand as independents backed by large numbers of activists in the seat, and the Tories lose some number of those seats to opposition parties.
Most would win limited numbers of votes (I think Rosindell might win as an independent).
I wasn’t assuming they’d win, just split the vote enough - it only needs to happen in a few given the Tories already lack a majority and I simply cannot believe a party which failed on its main policy and then split and deselected dozens of its own MPs, would gain at the expense of the opposition. Yeah yeah, Corbyn, but even then.
If the Tories get themselves a new leader, it will be a very different campaign to 2017. Its May who is unpopular rather the party, at least according to the polls - whatever that’s worth.
If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.
The SNP and LDs unlikely to support PM Corbyn under any circumstances & LAB has lost a significant number of MPs since GE17.
What if the support was for PM only to revoke Art50, and then elections?
If there was a VONC on Monday, there is still a 2 week window in which a new government could attempt to be formed - which takes us beyond the deadline - and TM would remain acting PM until that process was completed - unless I am misunderstanding
The process could be less than that, but hard to see how Corbyn would be PM due to his seat numbers, unless SNP abstain on it or something.
The SNP and LDs unlikely to support PM Corbyn under any circumstances & LAB has lost a significant number of MPs since GE17.
I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !
The Tory vote has been proved remarkably solid in Scotland on the overall evidence across local by elections. If they lose any votes at all it will be a slither of WWC support in the central belt and/dissilusioned brexiteers to abstention in the northeast but last night's 20% in working class clakcmannanxhire bodes well for them.
Don't see much change in Scotland. Labour will most likely lose about 4 seats net to the SNP although has outside potential to win a few ultra marginal working class like Airdrie, Mothwrwell, Glasgow SW and Glasgow E back from the SNP where there is more apathy about the EU and in general if they don't have a bad campaign.
Tories could gain Argyll from the SNP and an outside chance of defeating Wishart
LDs could gain Fife NE
In England I don't see Labour gaining more than 20 seats from the Tories max but Milton Keynes, Northampton, hastings, Norwich N, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Morecambe etc are very plausible.
I think the Conservatives get hammered in any new GE.
I imagine it will be a relative standstill. The LDs and the SNP will gain some seats. TIG might pick up a couple. Labour and Tory will swap a few. The likeliest outcome is an extremely shaky Labour minority government unable to do very much at all.
A general election solves nothing. The only thing that gets us to a result is a referendum.
I think that it would be very likely to get the 15 Tiggers out of Parliament. But that is not nearly enough.
Unfortunately, I think that Allen is in a good position to retain her seat, as it is a very Remain constituency, and presumably, Labour and Lib Dems will vote tactically for her.
Wollaston has a chance, but in her constituency, the Leave/Conservative vote is much stronger.
The others will lose, IMHO.
Haven’t all the TIGgers said they won’t fight their existing constituency in the next GE ? They want to fight existing marginals. If Wollaston fights her current seat, she’ll lose. She was a popular local GP apparently but not much rated as an MP. MPs with personal followings, like say nearby Ben Bradshaw, are rare.
I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !
I don't think any party wil be losing seats to TIG. Much more interesting wil be 'How many deposits will TIG save?'
I think in a general election the Tory party discipline falls apart and the Tory party gets gubbed.
Can you honestly see a manifesto that Baker, Bridgen, and Francois can stand on that the likes of Rory Stewart can?
Deselect the ERG hardcore. Deselect the Grieve hardcore.
The rest unite around "it's T May's deal or nothing".
Sure they'd probably lose seats where the hardcore stand as independents. But May could go to the country with a proposition. The Government does have a policy, it just lacks a majority.
The Cons losing in London and Scotland and losing a few to TIG and the LDs and a few to deselected independents would leave rather a big mountain to climb against Labour !
I don't think any party wil be losing seats to TIG. Much more interesting wil be 'How many deposits will TIG save?'
Chuka Umunna could realisitcally get 35% in a by election and 20% in a GE, all the other Labour people will do worse than that no matter where they stand. Only give Allen a realistic chance of winning and maybe Wollaston could match the East Devon independent's performance and get around 35%.
As I keep saying no deal is now most likely and ERG plus DUP are doing everything to see it happen
Just because you keep saying it, doesn't mean it's true.
No Deal will not happen. The HoC will, quite simply, refuse to let it and will legislate accordingly.
Just like that. No problem.
And lets ignore most commentators, and the EU have said only in the last few minutes it is very possible
With respect you are either naive or just wishing it away
You are getting bogged down in technicalities, a common flaw of PB thinking (note those who contended we would still be legally leaving today after it was announced otherwise). Human beings act on incentives – as most MPs, the EU and the public are against No Deal it ain't gonna happen. A way out will be found.
TM has just said the same so maybe she is moving towards the compromise coming out next week
But it is not bogged down when it happens 14 days today without majority approval and actual legislation
Comments
I am surprised if no one who backed MV2 moved away from it in MV2.5.
Overall the result was closer than I thought it would be in the end, but it is more of an appetiser to the now important votes next week.
The deal is dead (it was dead in December to be fair) and May's idea of running down the clock has badly failed.
I have no idea where we go from here........
This is an area I know a little about, and it's frightening how much the Internet changes things. You have to guard against new exploits all the time, and old hardware lacks so many protections that new hardware have.
"...here is the list of Tory MPs who voted against the withdrawal agreement at the second meaningful vote (MV2) but for it this afternoon: Lucy Allan, Richard Bacon, Crispin Blunt, Conor Burns, Rehman Chishti, Simon Clarke, Damian Collins, Rosie Cooper, Robert Courts, Richard Drax, Iain Duncan Smith, Charlie Elphicke, Michael Fabricant, Sir Michael Fallon, Jim Fitzpatrick, James Gray, Chris Green, Mark Harper, Gordon Henderson, Eddie Hughes, Boris Johnson, Gareth Johnson, Daniel Kawczynski, Pauline Latham, Andrew Lewer, Ian Liddell-Grainger, Jonathan Lord, Esther McVey, Anne Main, Sheryll Murray, Tom Pursglove, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Henry Smith, Royston Smith, Bob Stewart, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson, Craig Tracey, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Shailesh Vara, John Whittingdale."
What a bunch of snowflakes, eh! Where's their backbone?!
No great surprise then - I thought it might be a little closer than it was but 34 Conservative MPs have killed the WA. Had they all supported their Prime Minister the WA would have carried 320-310 so if anyone wants to blame someone for "stopping Brexit" there's 34 you can start with.
What now?
Basically we are down to two options - leave without a WA on 12/4 or go back cap in hand to the EU and seek a long extension which will involve fighting the EU elections. One is a quick death for the Conservatives, the other slow and painful I'm tempted to suggest but that may not be the case.
May is finished - she adds her name to the list of Conservative PMs brought down by Europe. The immediate concern is whether the EU will be minded to offer a long extension and whether we will be minded to accept it. The pain of No Deal (if there is any) may be short and sharp in comparison to a long extension especially in an electorate where the "Let's Get It Over With" party are doing very well and may now pivot to No Deal.
It’s very easy to figure what the hell is going on, the vanity of the HofC cannot deal with implementing a Democratic vote without trying to be a bunch of smart arses
Anyway, as I said, time to think about things.
They needed something like En Marche or Momentum (both good names for their respective movements) , but more punchy and not as overused as Change.
Well worth it. A government majority based on twats like that is no majority at all. As has been demonstrated once again.
The EU really do not want us in the EU elections
There has been no attempt to articulate anything approaching a vision for change.
They are an empty vessel attempting to make some noise. And rather failing.
The U.K. has a binary choice - no deal or no Brexit. I would prefer no deal but either is more preferable to what we have now. I don’t see any mileage in a lighter Brexit, whatever that means or a second referendum. I’d rather have another election with a new Tory leader untainted by May’s failures. Too many MPs simply want to be paid for doing as directed by Brussels. That has to change.
It's a bit worse than that. The best analogy would be if Ford said we no longer guarantee that Mk1 Escort is safe and advice you stop using it; which would scupper your insurance I suspect.
I agree that individual PC users can probably carry on with Win7 and not get too worried. But many businesses are in a tricky situation. I was involved in a number of very expensive PC upgrade projects for banks necessitated not because the PCs weren't performing but because the operating systems were going out of support and the FSA/FCA wouldn't allow us to operate in that mode.
But it is not bogged down when it happens 14 days today without majority approval and actual legislation
so I'd say not.
Anyway this is not an argument Microsoft or Apple are going to listen to me on, so I think I'll stick to Brexit (Bremain)
In the case of Mansfield I understand that the previous incumbent had a poor reputation locally and was not seen as an effective MP.
It used to be that way, but I thought that Vista was the last Windows like that, with subsequent editions being more efficient and not requiring an upgrade to a more powerful computer to run.
An interesting season beckons.
NEW THREAD
Don't see much change in Scotland. Labour will most likely lose about 4 seats net to the SNP although has outside potential to win a few ultra marginal working class like Airdrie, Mothwrwell, Glasgow SW and Glasgow E back from the SNP where there is more apathy about the EU and in general if they don't have a bad campaign.
Tories could gain Argyll from the SNP and an outside chance of defeating Wishart
LDs could gain Fife NE
In England I don't see Labour gaining more than 20 seats from the Tories max but Milton Keynes, Northampton, hastings, Norwich N, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Morecambe etc are very plausible.
No deal ain’t happening.