politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More pressure is piled on the ERG to back the deal today
IDS's soeech aimed at the #erg – balance of risk has changed even though the #WA hasn't – support the deal and get changes under new leadership. but that same message may dissuade some potential ?@UKLabour? rebels pic.twitter.com/ky486ZKqC5
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First.0
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1 or 20
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A big shout out to the ERG for delaying Brexit.
They are true patriots.0 -
Nobody moves until they all move?0
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Fourth like Boris0
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It looks as if Gareth Snell will switch. It's rumoured that Dominic Raab will.0
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Some front page that of The Evening Gammon - "White saviour educates the ignorant savage"
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FPT
In 2017 Mervyn King was saying that we were focusing too much on negotiations with the EU and we should start by negotiating trade deals with other countries before the "final step" of doing a deal with the EU.Cyclefree said:
Quite. And did not cover himself in glory in 2008 either.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was so wise he didn’t even spot the credit crisis of 2007.geoffw said:
The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.TheScreamingEagles said:
He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs
#WrongThenWrongNow
He was talking rubbish when he said that there should be a No Deal exit with a six month transition deal. What the hell does he think the WA is?
Watch this from 25 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSMNGa60z4w0 -
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The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.
MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.
A very long way from "defeat by 20"....
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"I long for the time when a whole day can go by on PB when Brexit is not mentioned. I think that’s a long time off."
We shall not see them lit again in our life-time.0 -
FPT
Here’s another example of Mervyn ‘Always Wrong’ KingCyclefree said:
Quite. And did not cover himself in glory in 2008 either.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was so wise he didn’t even spot the credit crisis of 2007.geoffw said:
The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.TheScreamingEagles said:
He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs
#WrongThenWrongNow
He was talking rubbish when he said that there should be a No Deal exit with a six month transition deal. What the hell does he think the WA is?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/29/mervyn-king-warns-election-victor
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As a labour MP why would you change your vote unless the money being offered wasn't unconditional...
Brexit is the result of "Austerity" and no matter unless it's fixed the problems remain...0 -
So if they all switched and the DUP (total 37) - it would still go down by 19 or so ?TheWhiteRabbit said:The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.
MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.
A very long way from "defeat by 20"....
Not sure about that.0 -
Snell is like Labour rebel #4.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624
Getting closer and closer
Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it
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I'm rather glad today I'm not an MP. I could not in good conscience back this awful deal. But it probably does need to go through today.
Out of principles and from behind a keyboard I still side with the DUP. But I don't envy MPs facing the lobbies today.
Without Godwinning this is a bit Sophie's Choice.0 -
Amusingly, it looks as though Jacob Rees-Mogg has manoeuvred himself into having to vote against this motion in order to retain any credibility in his word (by sub-contracting his vote to the DUP) when harder liners have decided to cut and run.0
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There could still be some more twists if the vote passes today. It won't be enough to ratify the WA, and if the ERG get buyer's remorse, it might make a second referendum more viable.0
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22% chance of passing per Betfair. That is quite a big move. It was 8% an hour or so ago.0
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Had Fox been someone competent we could have at least rolled over our existing trade deals before invoking Article 50.williamglenn said:FPT
In 2017 Mervyn King was saying that we were focusing too much on negotiations with the EU and we should start by negotiating trade deals with other countries before the "final step" of doing a deal with the EU.Cyclefree said:
Quite. And did not cover himself in glory in 2008 either.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was so wise he didn’t even spot the credit crisis of 2007.geoffw said:
The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.TheScreamingEagles said:
He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs
#WrongThenWrongNow
He was talking rubbish when he said that there should be a No Deal exit with a six month transition deal. What the hell does he think the WA is?
Watch this from 25 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSMNGa60z4w0 -
By counter-rebel I mean ex-rebels now in support.TGOHF said:
So if they all switched and the DUP (total 37) - it would still go down by 19 or so ?TheWhiteRabbit said:The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.
MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.
A very long way from "defeat by 20"....
Not sure about that.
There remain 48 rebels (which would be enough to carry the motion if they all became counter-rebels)
We could also add Douglas Ross (previously absent) and Snell, if you wanted, which takes us to a defeat by 90.
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Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.0
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The Labour hard Brexiteers won't switch.Pulpstar said:
Snell is like Labour rebel #4.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624
Getting closer and closer
Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it
Jim Fitzpatrick also said he's vote for the WA, but I'll believe that when I see it.0 -
And a much, much stronger media performer.IanB2 said:Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
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As ever all roads leads to Remain yeah?williamglenn said:There could still be some more twists if the vote passes today. It won't be enough to ratify the WA, and if the ERG get buyers remorse, it might make a second referendum more viable.
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Grieve says he doesn't think the WAIB can be concluded by 22 May and hence a longer extension is needed, which he believes the EU would agree.0
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He's chief spokesperson, so bit confusing: potentially he'll be the one on the box, and she'll be running the leader's office.IanB2 said:Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
Or, they are effectively doing a Green Party and having co-leaders in all but name.0 -
wasn't Shuker like interim leader or something?rottenborough said:
He's chief spokesperson, so bit confusing: potentially he'll be the one on the box, and she'll be running the leader's office.IanB2 said:Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
Or, they are effectively doing a Green Party and having co-leaders in all but name.0 -
Hoey certainly, she takes her lead from the DUP.Pulpstar said:
Snell is like Labour rebel #4.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624
Getting closer and closer
Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it0 -
Grieve now calling out those ERG who are supporting the WA knowing they intend to rock the boat over the PD0
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I know his views are the antithesis in many areas to mine, but that aside, I am absolutely staggered that anyone in the modern age could take Rees-Mogg seriously!AlastairMeeks said:Amusingly, it looks as though Jacob Rees-Mogg has manoeuvred himself into having to vote against this motion in order to retain any credibility in his word (by sub-contracting his vote to the DUP) when harder liners have decided to cut and run.
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I know the area for her seat very well, and I think you are right. Wouldn't be surprised to see her increase her majority.GIN1138 said:
She's got a much better chance of retaining her seat than Chuka at the next election as well.IanB2 said:Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
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Right now, it looks like a majority of 88 against, although I suspect some more Conservatives will switch.0
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So we’re probably in the 270-280 votes box then, with it still falling by a majority of about 60-80??0
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It depends on another 40 or so Labour rebels switching.TheWhiteRabbit said:The rollign count on Tory counter-rebels is 27 (per Buzzfeed) with Anne Main also named by the Spectator.
MV2 failed by 149 which would thereby be reduced to 93.
A very long way from "defeat by 20"....
I have no idea how May gets them, but striking a deal with the Tom Watson faction must be the only way.0 -
Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!0
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If the LDs give her a free run, for sure, she 'll take most of their vote plus much of the Tory one.Nigel_Foremain said:
I know the area for her seat very well, and I think you are right. Wouldn't be surprised to see her increase her majority.GIN1138 said:
She's got a much better chance of retaining her seat than Chuka at the next election as well.IanB2 said:Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
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What time is the vote today?0
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Let's not forget that Cameron's objective in calling the Referendum was to resolve the Tory divisions on Europe.0
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2.30pmBenpointer said:What time is the vote today?
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I cant get to Manchester! Damn itTheScreamingEagles said:I know this should appeal to a few PBers.
Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773
Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.Scott_P said:
See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.SouthamObserver said:
At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.
At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.
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Thanks :-)Richard_Nabavi said:
2.30pmBenpointer said:What time is the vote today?
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So the running count is:
Start with defeat by 149:
28 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)
Gives defeat by 92.
There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions
Gives defeat by 760 -
Chaplain, I think.TheWhiteRabbit said:
wasn't Shuker like interim leader or something?rottenborough said:
He's chief spokesperson, so bit confusing: potentially he'll be the one on the box, and she'll be running the leader's office.IanB2 said:Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
Or, they are effectively doing a Green Party and having co-leaders in all but name.0 -
Nandy has always given the impression she might vote for it, before pulling away. We should assume she never will.kle4 said:
I cant get to Manchester! Damn itTheScreamingEagles said:I know this should appeal to a few PBers.
Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773
Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.Scott_P said:
See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.SouthamObserver said:
At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.
At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.0 -
20-30 lab on board yet?
Round my way we've got predictions of a loss by 45-100. Seems a solid range.0 -
Chuka confirming TIG will/would put up candidates in the EU elections.0
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ITV moves Anne-Marie Trevelyan to Support
So the running count is:
Start with defeat by 149:
30 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie/ITV)
Gives defeat by 88.
There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions
Gives defeat by 72
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Bring on Kenny Clarke and his Wonderful Gnu. Roll up, roll up for the circus at 3pm!0
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Indeed. Another in the long lists on both sides just seeking to avoid blame for various outcomes. She just wants to show she considered it at least.Sean_F said:
Nandy has always given the impression she might vote for it, before pulling away. We should assume she never will.kle4 said:
I cant get to Manchester! Damn itTheScreamingEagles said:I know this should appeal to a few PBers.
Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773
Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.Scott_P said:
See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.SouthamObserver said:
At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.
At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.0 -
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Hoey certainly is.Pulpstar said:
Snell is like Labour rebel #4.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1111591642652442624
Getting closer and closer
Ronnie Campbell, Kate Hoey, Corbyn and Skinner all still against I take it0 -
Is that when MPs go to the dentist?Richard_Nabavi said:
2.30pmBenpointer said:What time is the vote today?
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It would be less of a gnu and more of a pushmi-pullyu._Anazina_ said:Bring on Kenny Clarke and his Wonderful Gnu. Roll up, roll up for the circus at 3pm!
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This pseudo MV is surprisingly nerve-wracking.0
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It's certainly when the ERG are having their credibility extracted.Nigel_Foremain said:
Is that when MPs go to the dentist?Richard_Nabavi said:
2.30pmBenpointer said:What time is the vote today?
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The usual over optimism. The usual 'surely given x, y must vote for it' which ignores that ultimately not enough want to vote for it, end if, and will a new reason as others fall down.kinabalu said:22% chance of passing per Betfair. That is quite a big move. It was 8% an hour or so ago.
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Tragic the BBC are trying to big up the chances of the deal passing . Obviously have taken orders from no 10 .
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Indeed. He could not be bothered to take on the nutters himself so he thought the electorate would do it for him. Which has to be the biggest political misjudgment since Chamberlain accepted Hitler's word at Munich.IanB2 said:Let's not forget that Cameron's objective in calling the Referendum was to resolve the Tory divisions on Europe.
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I live in one of the constituencies next door and Heidi does seem to be well liked as an MP. However, South Cambs has been a safe Tory seat for a very long time, even in 1997. I think she could win, but it would be very close and depends on who the Conservatives put up against her - I imagine they'd look for a strong candidate who isn't on the ERG end of the party.IanB2 said:
If the LDs give her a free run, for sure, she 'll take most of their vote plus much of the Tory one.Nigel_Foremain said:
I know the area for her seat very well, and I think you are right. Wouldn't be surprised to see her increase her majority.GIN1138 said:
She's got a much better chance of retaining her seat than Chuka at the next election as well.IanB2 said:Clever making Heidi the face of TIG. Less partisan than Chuka and well placed if the next potential influx is from Tory remainers.
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She always gives me the impression she’s about to burst into tears because teacher might tell her offkle4 said:
Indeed. Another in the long lists on both sides just seeking to avoid blame for various outcomes. She just wants to show she considered it at least.Sean_F said:
Nandy has always given the impression she might vote for it, before pulling away. We should assume she never will.kle4 said:
I cant get to Manchester! Damn itTheScreamingEagles said:I know this should appeal to a few PBers.
Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-16045773
Sure they are. I know hype attempts when I see one.Scott_P said:
See what I mean. Nandy clearly has no intention of ever voting for the WA, the resignation issue is a stupid reason to vote for ir against, it's an excuse. Either the WA is ok or it isn't, and Nandy and her bedfellows in the ERG are playing games. I feel quite confident in my prediction, as it's based only on including Tories who explicitly switch, and assuming virtually no lab rebels emerge.SouthamObserver said:
At this point as the are whittled down to the stubborn and principled the lab numbers are more vital. And if even divorced from the pd the most amenable lab MPs wont vote for it on the blatantly insincere reasoning of May resigning, then we all know the result.
At least Grieve and the ERG hardliners are mostly honest about never voting for the wa. Not pretending they might but seeking lame excuses.
If she was leader there’d be a lot of Nando related headlines for our amusement0 -
The Tories need a good scale and polish to get rid of the Raabs and Bakers.AlastairMeeks said:
It's certainly when the ERG are having their credibility extracted.Nigel_Foremain said:
Is that when MPs go to the dentist?Richard_Nabavi said:
2.30pmBenpointer said:What time is the vote today?
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Why is that 'tragic'? It would be disappointing if true, though of course for all accusations of political bias by the BBC, the bias of the accuser has to be considered and is usually key.nico67 said:Tragic the BBC are trying to big up the chances of the deal passing . Obviously have taken orders from no 10 .
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May saying she’s going to leave soon essentially means Labour voting for the deal are voting to bring in a hardline Brexiter .
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Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.Nigel_Foremain said:Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!
And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.0 -
It's the non-option option. It kicks the can down the road a bit, which makes it popular with a lot of MPs.kle4 said:
Its intriguing mostly because it might provably be the most popular option voted on to date. What happens once choices narrow further on indicative options is key.Jonathan said:This pseudo MV is surprisingly nerve-wracking.
IMO anyone switching now reveals themselves as prioritising tactics over principles. If you can vote for this now, you could have voted for it the first or second time around.
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Raab has gone over to the dark side.0 -
Just catching up. Three amendments, none of which have any hope of passing, is that right?0
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That makes no sense, because on this issue at least mps have very stubbornly stuck to their guns over and over. Media rumours of x or y happening have had no effect and so the idea the BBC is trying to influence things doesn't hold up, the idea no 10 is through them doesnt hold up because it just blows up on their face when, again, they fall short.nico67 said:Tragic the BBC are trying to big up the chances of the deal passing . Obviously have taken orders from no 10 .
More likely they just hope for a conclusion to the story rather than endless parliamentary pontification.0 -
The 75 Labour MPs from the most Leave supporting seats. Can she get an extra 40 votes from these? Probably not
Susan Elan Jones
"Nia Griffith
"Stephen Hepburn
"Kevan Jones
"John Mann
"Kelvin Hopkins
"Sue Hayman
"Dame Rosie Winterton
"Ronnie Campbell
"John Spellar
"Angela Rayner
"Chris Ruane
"Richard Burgon
"Helen Goodman
"Tony Lloyd
"Christina Rees
"Sir Kevin Barron
"Jess Phillips
"Yvonne Fovargue
"Jon Cruddas
"Carolyn Harris
"Keith Vaz
"Nick Thomas-Symonds
"Phil Wilson
"Jon Trickett
"Chris Elmore
"Naz Shah
"Yvette Cooper
"Jack Dromey
"Alex Norris
"Dennis Skinner
"Valerie Vaz
"Emma Lewell-Buck
"Clive Betts
"Sharon Hodgson
"Gloria De Piero
"Caroline Flint
"Imran Hussain
"Khalid Mahmood
"Emma Hardy
"Gareth Snell
"Chris Evans
"Alex Cunningham
"Jim McMahon
"Kate Hollern
"Graham P Jones
"Bridget Phillipson
"Dan Jarvis
"Yasmin Qureshi
"Stephen Kinnock
"Judith Cummins
"Andy McDonald
"John Healey
"Mike Hill
"Gerald Jones
"Nic Dakin
"Julie Cooper
"Ann Clwyd
"Edward Miliband
"Gordon Marsden
"Anna Turley
"Ruth Smeeth
"Liam Byrne
"Chris Bryant
"Stephanie Peacock
"Melanie Onn
"Sarah Champion
"Tom Watson
"Emma Reynolds
"Karl Turner
"Nick Smith
"Grahame Morris
"Pat McFadden
"Ian Austin
"Adrian Bailey
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From the very dark side?Sean_F said:
Raab has gone over to the dark side.0 -
300/1kinabalu said:
Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.Nigel_Foremain said:Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!
And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.0 -
The Speaker isn't calling themBenpointer said:Just catching up. Three amendments, none of which have any hope of passing, is that right?
However Cox all but accepted the Snell amendment for when the legislation comes to the Commons0 -
Totally agree . They were all told of the risks if MV2 failed, things really have not changed much just because the extension has become real rather than predicted.Jonathan said:
It's the non-option option. It kicks the can down the road a bit, which makes it popular with a lot of MPs.kle4 said:
Its intriguing mostly because it might provably be the most popular option voted on to date. What happens once choices narrow further on indicative options is key.Jonathan said:This pseudo MV is surprisingly nerve-wracking.
IMO anyone switching now reveals themselves as prioritising tactics over principles. If you can vote for this now, you could have voted for it the first or second time around.
As you say, mps love to can kick. With things already scheduled for next week why decide things now?0 -
Hour of need and all that. As a lifelong non-Tory, even I could support Clarke at this point.kinabalu said:
Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.Nigel_Foremain said:Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!
And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.0 -
Which should be great for Labour as the party will not put up with it and there will be defections and current MPs leaving the party to stand independently, which will usher in a socialist paradise. This argument stands up to no scrutiny.nico67 said:May saying she’s going to leave soon essentially means Labour voting for the deal are voting to bring in a hardline Brexiter .
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Betting Post:
I have run my pre-Ref portfolio very successfully to date which has been global dollar-weighted. If there is no deal I will benefit greatly as sterling sinks. If there is a deal (a position I have been advocating since the beginning) not so much with an estimated upside in GBP/USD to 1.45-48. I have just bought some out of the money GBP/USD calls just in case those madmen actually do vote the deal through!!
Edit: DYOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ie call your MP!0 -
Ian Austin counts as ind now doesnt he?Nemtynakht said:
The 75 Labour MPs from the most Leave supporting seats. Can she get an extra 40 votes from these? Probably not
Susan Elan Jones
"Nia Griffith
"Stephen Hepburn
"Kevan Jones
"John Mann
"Kelvin Hopkins
"Sue Hayman
"Dame Rosie Winterton
"Ronnie Campbell
"John Spellar
"Angela Rayner
"Chris Ruane
"Richard Burgon
"Helen Goodman
"Tony Lloyd
"Christina Rees
"Sir Kevin Barron
"Jess Phillips
"Yvonne Fovargue
"Jon Cruddas
"Carolyn Harris
"Keith Vaz
"Nick Thomas-Symonds
"Phil Wilson
"Jon Trickett
"Chris Elmore
"Naz Shah
"Yvette Cooper
"Jack Dromey
"Alex Norris
"Dennis Skinner
"Valerie Vaz
"Emma Lewell-Buck
"Clive Betts
"Sharon Hodgson
"Gloria De Piero
"Caroline Flint
"Imran Hussain
"Khalid Mahmood
"Emma Hardy
"Gareth Snell
"Chris Evans
"Alex Cunningham
"Jim McMahon
"Kate Hollern
"Graham P Jones
"Bridget Phillipson
"Dan Jarvis
"Yasmin Qureshi
"Stephen Kinnock
"Judith Cummins
"Andy McDonald
"John Healey
"Mike Hill
"Gerald Jones
"Nic Dakin
"Julie Cooper
"Ann Clwyd
"Edward Miliband
"Gordon Marsden
"Anna Turley
"Ruth Smeeth
"Liam Byrne
"Chris Bryant
"Stephanie Peacock
"Melanie Onn
"Sarah Champion
"Tom Watson
"Emma Reynolds
"Karl Turner
"Nick Smith
"Grahame Morris
"Pat McFadden
"Ian Austin
"Adrian Bailey
In addition to overall loss size we should predict labour votes in favour. I'm saying less than 10, maybe 8. Abstentions dont count.0 -
Betfair's market (currently at 5s for Yes) makes it pretty clear this is not MV3. So the market is v likely to be void.
The gov't motion, OTOH, is at 6.4 and won't be void.
So the difference is... MV3 this evening or tomorrow??0 -
By way of relief, a fine long read article on Hickenlooper:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/29/john-hickenlooper-profile-president-2020-campaign-governor-226267
No chance, of course, but US political biographies tend to be far more appealing than ours.0 -
Buzzfeed moves Craig Tracey to Support
So the running count is:
Start with defeat by 149:
31 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)
Gives defeat by 86.
There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions
Gives defeat by 70
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maybe I should start a government petitionkinabalu said:
Yes, if the policy eventually agreed for Brexit is the KENNETH CLARKE plan this does suggest that it requires a KENNETH CLARKE to pursue it.Nigel_Foremain said:Looks like Ken Clarke for PM then!!
And if we need a Ken Clarke as PM, why on earth not go for the Ken Clarke? It would be downright rude not to.0 -
Thanks. I guess the rationale for not calling them is the IV process will continue on Monday.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The Speaker isn't calling themBenpointer said:Just catching up. Three amendments, none of which have any hope of passing, is that right?
However Cox all but accepted the Snell amendment for when the legislation comes to the Commons0 -
It's a load of old wank is what it is. The parliamentary numbers wont magically alter. Nandy is going right down in my estimation.Nemtynakht said:
Which should be great for Labour as the party will not put up with it and there will be defections and current MPs leaving the party to stand independently, which will usher in a socialist paradise. This argument stands up to no scrutiny.nico67 said:May saying she’s going to leave soon essentially means Labour voting for the deal are voting to bring in a hardline Brexiter .
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TND seems to think the DUP might just be driving a very hard bargain over on Twitter.0
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TheWhiteRabbit said:
Buzzfeed moves Craig Tracey to Support
So the running count is:
Start with defeat by 149:
31 Tory switchers and 1 switcher from absent (based on the most favourable reading of Buzzfeed/Speccie)
Gives defeat by 86.
There were 3 Labour supports, so I would imagine Dan Hodges means *another* 3 plus 10 abstentions
Gives defeat by 70
Does that include Raab and Trevelyan?0 -
Please do. You can be #1 and I will be #2.Nigel_Foremain said:maybe I should start a government petition
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Raab on his feet now....0
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He does have the luxury of a 12000 majority in a seat that voted 60% Leave.eek said:https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1111594465775505408
one for the maybe column0 -
I believe Jacob Rees Mogg would like to bring back indentured servitudeRH1992 said:
The Tories need a good scale and polish to get rid of the Raabs and Bakers.AlastairMeeks said:
It's certainly when the ERG are having their credibility extracted.Nigel_Foremain said:
Is that when MPs go to the dentist?Richard_Nabavi said:
2.30pmBenpointer said:What time is the vote today?
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