politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cart
Comments
-
What is the rate of increase though? I would have thought it was at least slowing by now, and that was what I was interested in seeing.IanB2 said:
Launched in February. Slowly rose to 60,000 sigs before the moment that our PriMino decided it was a good idea to go live on TV. Since when it has spiralled inexorably upwards.BigIan said:
Is there a graph anywhere of volume over time?bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
The SNP already voted for permanent Customs Union last year as did the LDs, Plaid and Lucas.Sean_F said:
Pretty sure it would not be supported by Lib Dems, SNP, TIG, Plaid, or Lucas. That's 62 votes. Many Labour Remainers would oppose it, along with Conservative hardliners.kle4 said:
It's a nice thought, but do you actually think it is actually being considered or is it just talk designed to try to scare ERG types?HYUFD said:
Pretty much, with Labour, SNP, LD and Tory Remainer votes it would probably get a majority tooSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-unionRichard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - bership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
TIG might not vote for it demanding Revoke or EUref2 and nothing else but with most Labour MPs and at least 50 Tory MPs who are adamantly anti No Deal It would probably pass.
By rejecting May's Deal with a temporary Customs Union backstop the clueless ERG will now likely end up with May's Deal and permanent Customs Union0 -
Many happy returns.0
-
It achieved 4 million this morning and is now at over 4.3 million. Not slowing off as of yet.BigIan said:
What is the rate of increase though? I would have thought it was at least slowing by now, and that was what I was interested in seeing.IanB2 said:
Launched in February. Slowly rose to 60,000 sigs before the moment that our PriMino decided it was a good idea to go live on TV. Since when it has spiralled inexorably upwards.BigIan said:
Is there a graph anywhere of volume over time?bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
That’s a shame. When she was on form she was good fun 😞GIN1138 said:
It was reported on here 2-3 months ago but I think she actually died back last Summer?Charles said:
I hadn’t realised Plato had died. Sorry to hear that - when did it happen?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.
0 -
Don't have a go at me, I'd have voted for MV2 and I blame the ERG just as much as the rest of Westminster for the current mess.Dadge said:
This is the kind of ridiculous rhetorical statement that is giving Brexiters such a bad name. Brexit has not been cancelled. MPs, including Brexiters, have voted against the WA, but parliament has also voted against a 2nd referendum. There is still a significant majority in Parliament committed to seeing Brexit through. Brexiters would do well to work constructively with that, rather than destroying their own cause by attacking the institution that is trying to give them what they want.GIN1138 said:
Given as far as we know Brexit has been cancelled (29th March is off and there's no other firm date for Leave) I would expect civil disobedience to grow incrementally through the week.Dadge said:Leavers are suddenly on the back foot and need to tread carefully... eg. there's a blockade of Fishguard planned for tomorrow, which will feed into the narrative of Leave being disruptive (and Leavers being sore winners). If Leavers in parliament don't tell May quickly that they'll swallow their pride and back her, their Brexit dream may soon be over.
I doubt there's anything any politician can do to stop it we just have to hope there's no violence.
I'm just stating how I think this is going to play out in the next few days as we get to 29th March and we don't leave after being promised for two years that we would.
So there!
And now I think I'll get out into the sunshine and cut my grass.
0 -
The Commons will not allow a No Deal option thoughAndyJS said:
That's why, if we have another referendum, the first round would have to be a repeat of the 23rd June 2016 vote, ie. just Remain or Leave. The second round would then have to determine what type of Remaining or Leaving it would be. Doing it the other way round would lead to a lot of disillusionment.HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/0 -
The Master - Tony Blair - has said a "hard" Brexit option has to be offered (so that it can be shown to have been defeated I guess?) in any final referendum?HYUFD said:
The Commons will not allow a No Deal option thoughAndyJS said:
That's why, if we have another referendum, the first round would have to be a repeat of the 23rd June 2016 vote, ie. just Remain or Leave. The second round would then have to determine what type of Remaining or Leaving it would be. Doing it the other way round would lead to a lot of disillusionment.HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/0 -
Corbyn can do what he likes, the indicative votes will be done on a free vote basis anyway and most Labour MPs will make up their own minds and ignore himAndrew said:HYUFD said:
Absolutely it is being considered, May will apparently propose it as part of a series of indicative votes alongside her Deal as it is, revoke Article 50, EUref2, No Deal and single market and single market and customs union. The aim being to force the Commons to come to a decision
Makes sense. May will know she has weeks at most left now, and that's going to free her up a bit - some sort of crossparty deal maybe becomes more likely as a result.
Of course, that presumes Corbyn won't just continue refusing everything, hoping for crash no-deal.0 -
Just thinking - if MV3 doesn't happen, people like #Esther4Leader will look a bit stupid declaring in advance that they were going to switch their vote and support it.0
-
I would have no problem with that but Parliament is unlikely to allow itbrendan16 said:
Unlike last time Parliament will no doubt ensure it picks referendum questions which ensure the public delivers the right answer! A remain vs May's deal referendum (no doubt stipulating May must lead the campaign for her deal!) would no doubt result in a clear remain win on a much lower turnout than in 2016 - as large sections of the country would have no option they could vote for.HYUFD said:
Perhaps, but it is all hypothetical anyway as the Commons would only ever allow a Remain v Deal 2nd referendum, it would never vote to allow No Deal on the ballot paperGIN1138 said:
But then you have to think in an actual referendum the remain campaign would be worth at least another 4% for leave...HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/
I mean given these are people who think it's actually a good idea to gloat about the number of grannies that have died since 2016...
Image the kind of campaign they'd run in a second go-round.
I think it'd be very close again but certainly wouldn't rule out NO DEAL winning a People's Vote.
Not having a leave with no deal or other option would on some polling by like holding a general election in which the Tories or Labour were not allowed to stand! It would not lance the boil and merely confirm the division for good.
Another wheeze would be to have multiple leave options - thus splitting the leave campaign and votes - and only one remain. Why couldn't we have multiple remain options as well - as remain isn't status quo for ever:
remain - even if we lose our rebate at the next budget round
remain but join Schengen and the Euro
remain but just join Schengen
Full European superstate and EU army now on speed!0 -
What a lovely day for marching in central London and demanding that the question of whether we leave the European Union or not is put back to the British people.0
-
It will happen but probably now only as the first part of a series of indicative votes on Brexit optionsSandyRentool said:Just thinking - if MV3 doesn't happen, people like #Esther4Leader will look a bit stupid declaring in advance that they were going to switch their vote and support it.
0 -
Isn't that the same idea under which Leave was offered as an option in the first place?GIN1138 said:
The Master - Tony Blair - has said a "hard" Brexit option has to be offered (so that it can be shown to have been defeated I guess?) in any final referendum?HYUFD said:
The Commons will not allow a No Deal option thoughAndyJS said:
That's why, if we have another referendum, the first round would have to be a repeat of the 23rd June 2016 vote, ie. just Remain or Leave. The second round would then have to determine what type of Remaining or Leaving it would be. Doing it the other way round would lead to a lot of disillusionment.HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/0 -
I do like the petition system but then I also like direct democracy in the Swiss style. I also think the cut off points for response and debate are about right. I have just signed a petition asking for a ban on netting hedges to prevent birds nesting. I am hoping it will breach the 100K and get debated. It currently stands at around 45KDougSeal said:
There is a bit of a misconception that the petition is intended in some way to displace the referendum. Petitions are, and always have been, a request to Parliament to consider an issue. It’s only recently that information technology has allowed them to be presented in this manner. The petition is currently the only means by which people who really think that the country is headed down a disasterous road can put their case to the sole body that can make a difference. It’s not a pissing contest with the referendum. It couldn’t be. No one has promised to honour the petition - it is merely an address to Parliament to debate reconsidering acting on the referendum in the light of subsequent events. It will be rejected, but it will have made its poitnt, and may possibly act as leverage to a softer Brexit - as with the march today.glw said:
Neither did I. I'm merely pointing out that people arguing for second referendums based upon the numbers signing a petition or marching ought first to consider the much larger number of people who actually voted.kyf_100 said:If we crash out to no deal, how is that honouring the vote? It isn't honouring mine. I voted to leave, but on the presumption - which now looks somewhat foolish - that we would leave in an orderly fashion, in a way that maintained close ties with our neighbours while disentangling ourselves from the political project of the EU. I did not vote to leave so that a small minority of hardliners within Parliament could force us out on the worst possible terms and quite probably tank the economy while doing so, all to prove an ideological point.
If you think 4 million "signatures" means something then surely 17 million votes is even more significant.-1 -
Blair is not even an MP anymore, most MPs disagreeGIN1138 said:
The Master - Tony Blair - has said a "hard" Brexit option has to be offered (so that it can be shown to have been defeated I guess?) in any final referendum?HYUFD said:
The Commons will not allow a No Deal option thoughAndyJS said:
That's why, if we have another referendum, the first round would have to be a repeat of the 23rd June 2016 vote, ie. just Remain or Leave. The second round would then have to determine what type of Remaining or Leaving it would be. Doing it the other way round would lead to a lot of disillusionment.HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/0 -
I think there is a subtle difference one might suggest between having a job and 'working'. Miners work, carers in care homes work damn hard for little pay, refuse collectors work, nurses work. A lot of people sitting in offices (e.g. like my remainer central office in London) passing round twitter messages on revoke petitions have jobs - but the cleaners who come in after they have gone home and slave away to clear up their mess 'work'! Areas with people doing tough manual labour voted leave - areas where people sit in offices on computers or spending their days talking in meetings voted remain. The latter may create more wealth perhaps - but do they actually work harder?_Anazina_ said:
As a point of order, many Leavers don’t work.kjohnw said:
Meanwhile 17.4 million people who quietly voted leave who go and and work and don’t go marching and shouting quietly wait for their democratic vote to be honoured. Who were told the vote would be implementedtottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.
Remain had a clear majority among those in work.
Ashcroft: A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension.
And of course most people over 60 who voted leave spent 40 years of their life working/in employment - so to suggest their work experience matters less is ridiculous as they have had more experience of working than anyone.
0 -
I think that’s the idea.Sean_F said:
I hear owls, but never see them.SandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush0 -
I never said they were photoshopped; I said the overall numbers were totally exaggerated.IanB2 said:Excepting the Casino theory that these photos are all photoshopped, this march in London is going to be big.
It’s easy to get a photo shot that looks impressive, or unimpressive, depending upon the story you want.0 -
Ian actually thinks May would revoke.Sean_F said:
I think you're getting high on your own supply. Revoke is certainly not the consensus among the public.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Take out the DKs, and Revoke is already in the low 40s. Given that a fair chunk of those wanting a new deal and later exit will be supporting a soft Brexit, that's where the consensus is right now.nico67 said:
But only 24% support no deal. So there’s no mandate for a no deal . And the ERG telling everyone Leavers voted for no deal in 2016 is just another lie being peddled by them.Floater said:
So leaving a clear favouriteCarlottaVance said:
The ERG stance is making things worse and is driving Remainers who were willing to accept and move on into the either just revoke or another EU vote .
He lives on a different planet.0 -
It tells us two things: that Remainers are now very very motivated to call the whole thing off, and don’t care if it’s done democratically or not, and that they’re very well organised.Sean_F said:
It's an impressive number, but 16m voted Remain, and clicking a website requires little effort.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
One of the criticisms of the 2016 referendum result is that voters didn't agree on what 'Brexit' meant. Do today's marchers agree on what a 'People's Vote' means?0
-
What? Plato died?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.
I didn’t know that. I’m upset now I do know.0 -
They voted for it to defeat the government's trade bill; it does not mean they want it. If faced with a choice between Brexit with customs union, and Brexit without, they'll go for the former.HYUFD said:
The SNP already voted for permanent Customs Union last year as did the LDs, Plaid and Lucas.Sean_F said:
Pretty sure it would not be supported by Lib Dems, SNP, TIG, Plaid, or Lucas. That's 62 votes. Many Labour Remainers would oppose it, along with Conservative hardliners.kle4 said:
It's a nice thought, but do you actually think it is actually being considered or is it just talk designed to try to scare ERG types?HYUFD said:
Pretty much, with Labour, SNP, LD and Tory Remainer votes it would probably get a majority tooSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-unionRichard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Markets.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - bership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreedRichard_Tyndall said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
TIG might not vote for it demanding Revoke or EUref2 and nothing else but with most Labour MPs and at least 50 Tory MPs who are adamantly anti No Deal It would probably pass.
By rejecting May's Deal with a temporary Customs Union backstop the clueless ERG will now likely end up with May's Deal and permanent Customs Union
But if it's Brexit with customs union, Yes/No, they'll vote No with the ERG.0 -
Turn on the TV to check out the march, and Nigel Fucking Farage is there, claiming the comparative size of the marches proves he is right...0
-
Er, that’s three things, your eminence.Casino_Royale said:
It tells us two things: that Remainers are now very very motivated to call the whole thing off, and don’t care if it’s done democratically or not, and that they’re very well organised.Sean_F said:
It's an impressive number, but 16m voted Remain, and clicking a website requires little effort.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
I forget when. Her brother contacted @MikeSmithson so we know some biographical details - she was called Phillipa and she died in her early 50s, which is too young to die - but not enough to, say, put flowers on her grave...Charles said:
I hadn’t realised Plato had died. Sorry to hear that - when did it happen?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost. 0 -
Me too.kyf_100 said:
If we crash out to no deal, how is that honouring the vote? It isn't honouring mine. I voted to leave, but on the presumption - which now looks somewhat foolish - that we would leave in an orderly fashion, in a way that maintained close ties with our neighbours while disentangling ourselves from the political project of the EU. I did not vote to leave so that a small minority of hardliners within Parliament could force us out on the worst possible terms and quite probably tank the economy while doing so, all to prove an ideological point.glw said:
Call me old fashioned but perhaps the government should honour the biggest vote ever, before they start worrying about the biggest petition, and the biggest march.tottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.0 -
See my reply to @CharlesCasino_Royale said:
What? Plato died?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.
I didn’t know that. I’m upset now I do know.0 -
I have no problem with a petition system and I have no doubt that there are millions of people who support revocation of Article 50. However, the system must be credible. Just to test the system I've had my cat sign a petition using my email address (which had been used already to sign the same petition) and his support was recorded and added to the number of signatories. This I do have a problem with.Richard_Tyndall said:
I do like the petition system but then I also like direct democracy in the Swiss style. I also think the cut off points for response and debate are about right. I have just signed a petition asking for a ban on netting hedges to prevent birds nesting. I am hoping it will breach the 100K and get debated. It currently stands at around 45KDougSeal said:
There is a bit of a misconception that the petition is intended in some way to displace the referendum. Petitions are, and always have been, a request to Parliament to consider an issue. It’s only recently that information technology has allowed them to be presented in this manner. The petition is currently the only means by which people who really think that the country is headed down a disasterous road can put their case to the sole body that can make a difference. It’s not a pissing contest with the referendum. It couldn’t be. No one has promised to honour the petition - it is merely an address to Parliament to debate reconsidering acting on the referendum in the light of subsequent events. It will be rejected, but it will have made its poitnt, and may possibly act as leverage to a softer Brexit - as with the march today.glw said:
Neither did I. I'm merely pointing out that people arguing for second referendums based upon the numbers signing a petition or marching ought first to consider the much larger number of people who actually voted.kyf_100 said:If we crash out to no deal, how is that honouring the vote? It isn't honouring mine. I voted to leave, but on the presumption - which now looks somewhat foolish - that we would leave in an orderly fashion, in a way that maintained close ties with our neighbours while disentangling ourselves from the political project of the EU. I did not vote to leave so that a small minority of hardliners within Parliament could force us out on the worst possible terms and quite probably tank the economy while doing so, all to prove an ideological point.
If you think 4 million "signatures" means something then surely 17 million votes is even more significant.0 -
It isn’t, the piece in the Oxford commas is an explanation of the first.rpjs said:
Er, that’s three things, your eminence.Casino_Royale said:
It tells us two things: that Remainers are now very very motivated to call the whole thing off, and don’t care if it’s done democratically or not, and that they’re very well organised.Sean_F said:
It's an impressive number, but 16m voted Remain, and clicking a website requires little effort.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
Cobblers Sir !! ....Charles said:
She’s putting her heart and sole into it. Your job is to toe the line and unlace the purse strings. Don’t let your tongue flap or she’ll call you to heel as soon as you blow your hornJackW said:
I thought the same with Mrs JackW's solo efforts to revive the British shoe industry .... not quite 5-6 million pairs but at times it appears too close to call !! ....bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.0
-
So sorry to miss this thread. Happy birthday from one of the class of 2006. May there be many more birthdays ahead.0
-
That’s absolutely horrible.viewcode said:
I forget when. Her brother contacted @MikeSmithson so we know some biographical details - she was called Phillipa and she died in her early 50s, which is too young to die - but not enough to, say, put flowers on her grave...Charles said:
I hadn’t realised Plato had died. Sorry to hear that - when did it happen?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.
One or two admirers contacted me on Twitter to ask why she’d suddenly disappeared off the feed, and that didn’t even cross my mind.0 -
How on earth do you know it was added to the number of signatories? They are deleted and re-adjusted periodically. How do you know your cat hasn't/won't be deleted? Stop sharing unverifiable observations as 'facts'.TudorRose said:
I have no problem with a petition system and I have no doubt that there are millions of people who support revocation of Article 50. However, the system must be credible. Just to test the system I've had my cat sign a petition using my email address (which had been used already to sign the same petition) and his support was recorded and added to the number of signatories. This I do have a problem with.Richard_Tyndall said:
I do like the petition system but then I also like direct democracy in the Swiss style. I also think the cut off points for response and debate are about right. I have just signed a petition asking for a ban on netting hedges to prevent birds nesting. I am hoping it will breach the 100K and get debated. It currently stands at around 45KDougSeal said:
There is a bit of a misconception that the petition is intended in some way to displace the referendum. Petitions are, and always have been, a request to Parliament to consider an issue. It’s only recently that information technology has allowed them to be presented in this manner. The petition is currently the only means by which people who really think that the country is headed down a disasterous road can put their case to the sole body that can make a difference. It’s not a pissing contest with the referendum. It couldn’t be. No one has promised to honour the petition - it is merely an address to Parliament to debate reconsidering acting on the referendum in the light of subsequent events. It will be rejected, but it will have made its poitnt, and may possibly act as leverage to a softer Brexit - as with the march today.glw said:
Neither did I. I'm merely pointing out that people arguing for second referendums based upon the numbers signing a petition or marching ought first to consider the much larger number of people who actually voted.kyf_100 said:If we crash out to no deal, how is that honouring the vote? It isn't honouring mine. I voted to leave, but on the presumption - which now looks somewhat foolish - that we would leave in an orderly fashion, in a way that maintained close ties with our neighbours while disentangling ourselves from the political project of the EU. I did not vote to leave so that a small minority of hardliners within Parliament could force us out on the worst possible terms and quite probably tank the economy while doing so, all to prove an ideological point.
If you think 4 million "signatures" means something then surely 17 million votes is even more significant.0 -
Anyhoo, got to go shopping. Happy birthday PB, and thanks to @MikeSmithson , @rcs1000 and @TheScreamingEagles who help run it, the regular article writers @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks etc, the occasional article writers such as James Blundell, @Alanbrooke, etc, the quietly wonderful analysts such as @corporeal , the always forgotten but invaluable @HarryHayfield . And the rest of you, of course. Happy Birthday, one and all.0
-
Timestamp?viewcode said:
See my reply to @CharlesCasino_Royale said:
What? Plato died?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.
I didn’t know that. I’m upset now I do know.0 -
Yep, the spin is already warming up.Phil said:Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.
I expect the organisers to try and claim a million.
Watch out.0 -
CR I know you’re desperate to downplay the anti-Brexit march numbers, but this is clearly the largest political march ever in London to my eyes. I think that matters, regardless of the details of the numbers.Casino_Royale said:
Yep, the spin is already warming up.Phil said:Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.
I expect the organisers to try and claim a million.
Watch out.
If you think otherwise, feel free to point to past marches that match this one.0 -
Are you bitter?Casino_Royale said:
Yep, the spin is already warming up.Phil said:Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.
I expect the organisers to try and claim a million.
Watch out.
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/11094603175060971520 -
How on earth do you know it was added to the number of signatories? They are deleted and re-adjusted periodically. How do you know your cat hasn't/won't be deleted? Stop sharing unverifiable observations as 'facts'.
I know it was added to the signatories because once I validated the email address I got a message that said 'We've added your signature to the petition;' and then the name of the petition plus the total number of signatures. I consider this to be an objective fact.
Edit; blockquotes not being friendly 0 -
Happy Birthday PB - it seems I was among the earliest of posters, back in the days of 'the Professor' which was easily the best spoof character on PB - back in the days when even JackW was a boy.0
-
The SNP's official policy is for a permanent Customs Union and Single Market BINO or EUref2Sean_F said:
They voted for it to defeat the government's trade bill; it does not mean they want it. If faced with a choice between Brexit with customs union, and Brexit without, they'll go for the former.HYUFD said:
The SNP already voted for permanent Customs Union last year as did the LDs, Plaid and Lucas.Sean_F said:
Pretty sure it would not be supported by Lib Dems, SNP, TIG, Plaid, or Lucas. That's 62 votes. Many Labour Remainers would oppose it, along with Conservative hardliners.kle4 said:
It's a nice thought, but do you actually think it is actually being considered or is it just talk designed to try to scare ERG types?HYUFD said:
Pretty much, with Labour, SNP, LD and Tory Remainer votes it would probably get a majority tooSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering s/HYUFD said:
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-unionRichard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Markets.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - bership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreedRichard_Tyndall said:
TIG might not vote for it demanding Revoke or EUref2 and nothing else but with most Labour MPs and at least 50 Tory MPs who are adamantly anti No Deal It would probably pass.
By rejecting May's Deal with a temporary Customs Union backstop the clueless ERG will now likely end up with May's Deal and permanent Customs Union
But if it's Brexit with customs union, Yes/No, they'll vote No with the ERG.0 -
Are you sure you validated it the previous time? If you re-use the same email address, you should get a response saying that the email address has already been used.TudorRose said:
I know it was added to the signatories because once I validated the email address I got a message that said 'We've added your signature to the petition;' and then the name of the petition plus the total number of signatures. I consider this to be an objective fact.
Edit; blockquotes not being friendly0 -
Beg to differ - Adrian Harper was peerless. Perhaps James Kelly might also make a guest appearance for old time's sake. And who can forget Life in A Market Town in both his incarnations. Only pb could being 'em all together. Congrats to Mike and the gang!kingbongo said:Happy Birthday PB - it seems I was among the earliest of posters, back in the days of 'the Professor' which was easily the best spoof character on PB - back in the days when even JackW was a boy.
0 -
Hahaha!! We have a winner!!!!!Gallowgate said:
Are you bitter?Casino_Royale said:
Yep, the spin is already warming up.Phil said:Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.
I expect the organisers to try and claim a million.
Watch out.
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1109460317506097152
Lol. Just as I predicted 🤣0 -
I said earlier this morning I think the true numbers will be c.300-350k. I stand by that.Phil said:
CR I know you’re desperate to downplay the anti-Brexit march numbers, but this is clearly the largest political march ever in London to my eyes. I think that matters, regardless of the details of the numbers.Casino_Royale said:
Yep, the spin is already warming up.Phil said:Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.
I expect the organisers to try and claim a million.
Watch out.
If you think otherwise, feel free to point to past marches that match this one.
I’ll wait for official analysis of the figures before reaching any final conclusion.
My main warning is to those (and there are many of them) who buy the PV propaganda wholesale.0 -
A vote involving only people - but only people on the electoral register who are UK, Irish or Commonwealth citizen people? I expect they couldn't even agree on which people should get to vote! London has over 1.5 million EU nationals - some of whom may be at the rally - who won't get to vote but are people.TudorRose said:One of the criticisms of the 2016 referendum result is that voters didn't agree on what 'Brexit' meant. Do today's marchers agree on what a 'People's Vote' means?
They could just be honest and say revoke now.
No doubt lots of focus will be given to the numbers at another London based march - but if million strong marches really changed things there would potentially be several hundred thousand people still alive today in Iraq who aren't.
Remain/revoke backers will think wow - the country has changed its mind and we must stay in. Leavers will think - well 64 million (nearly 99%) of us UK residents didn't attend and its just a load of posh white middle class Londoners/well off Home Counties types sneering at us 'plebs' in the midlands/north/Wales/ etc again!
People feel strongly on both sides - and we know London is strongly remain already.0 -
They are very fine birds. Usually one of the first of the rarer birds each year to overshoot, generally in the SE.IanB2 said:
Here twitchers are going crazy over a rare UK sighting of a Great Spotted CuckooSandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush0 -
I recall PB when I was a little shaver. Mike's threads came to Auchentennach Castle by special courier on the overnight sleeper. Nanny would take out the quill and parchment and take down the musings of the infant noble and then spoon feed the entrails of recently deceased dungeon Liberals to Master JackW. .... Happy days indeed.kingbongo said:Happy Birthday PB - it seems I was among the earliest of posters, back in the days of 'the Professor' which was easily the best spoof character on PB - back in the days when even JackW was a boy.
0 -
Happy Birthday PB.
As a long time lurker, I finally registered to thank @MikeSmithson, @rcs1000 and everyone else who contribute to the site above or below the line for the countless hours I've spent on PB following events as they unfold.0 -
😢viewcode said:
I forget when. Her brother contacted @MikeSmithson so we know some biographical details - she was called Phillipa and she died in her early 50s, which is too young to die - but not enough to, say, put flowers on her grave...Charles said:
I hadn’t realised Plato had died. Sorry to hear that - when did it happen?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.0 -
Losers love a march.....brendan16 said:
A vote involving only people - but only people on the electoral register who are UK, Irish or Commonwealth citizen people? I expect they couldn't even agree on which people should get to vote! London has over 1.5 million EU nationals - some of whom may be at the rally - who won't get to vote but are people.TudorRose said:One of the criticisms of the 2016 referendum result is that voters didn't agree on what 'Brexit' meant. Do today's marchers agree on what a 'People's Vote' means?
They could just be honest and say revoke now.
No doubt lots of focus will be given to the numbers at another London based march - but if million strong marches really changed things there would potentially be several hundred thousand people still alive today in Iraq who aren't.
Remain/revoke backers will think wow - the country has changed its mind and we must stay in. Leavers will think - well 64 million (nearly 99%) of us UK residents didn't attend and its just a load of posh white middle class Londoners/well off Home Counties types sneering at us 'plebs' in the midlands/north/Wales/ etc again!0 -
New thread0
-
And who would forget those unexpected train excursions to the south coast by one of PB's finest .... Although the name is lost in the mists of time.JohnO said:
Beg to differ - Adrian Harper was peerless. Perhaps James Kelly might also make a guest appearance for old time's sake. And who can forget Life in A Market Town in both his incarnations. Only pb could being 'em all together. Congrats to Mike and the gang!kingbongo said:Happy Birthday PB - it seems I was among the earliest of posters, back in the days of 'the Professor' which was easily the best spoof character on PB - back in the days when even JackW was a boy.
0 -
Every march organiser wildly overestimates their attendance figures. What is the basis for assuming that People's Vote claims are less accurate than anyone else's?Casino_Royale said:
Yep, the spin is already warming up.Phil said:Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.
I expect the organisers to try and claim a million.
Watch out.
The proximity of the departure date and threat of no deal is definitely having an impact on the number of remainers prepared to make a statement in support of the EU.0 -
Your first sentence answers the question posed in your second.AlanC said:
Every march organiser wildly overestimates their attendance figures. What is the basis for assuming that People's Vote claims are less accurate than anyone else's?Casino_Royale said:
Yep, the spin is already warming up.Phil said:Today’s march looks bigger than the last one from the helicopter shots.
I expect the organisers to try and claim a million.
Watch out.
The proximity of the departure date and threat of no deal is definitely having an impact on the number of remainers prepared to make a statement in support of the EU.0 -
Oh yes - Adrian Harper was magnificent - I always assumed it was the Professor in another guise but if not then I concede the Adrian Harper posts were magnificentJackW said:
And who would forget those unexpected train excursions to the south coast by one of PB's finest .... Although the name is lost in the mists of time.JohnO said:
Beg to differ - Adrian Harper was peerless. Perhaps James Kelly might also make a guest appearance for old time's sake. And who can forget Life in A Market Town in both his incarnations. Only pb could being 'em all together. Congrats to Mike and the gang!kingbongo said:Happy Birthday PB - it seems I was among the earliest of posters, back in the days of 'the Professor' which was easily the best spoof character on PB - back in the days when even JackW was a boy.
0 -
That's extremely sad, along with the news about Mark Senior.viewcode said:
I forget when. Her brother contacted @MikeSmithson so we know some biographical details - she was called Phillipa and she died in her early 50s, which is too young to die - but not enough to, say, put flowers on her grave...Charles said:
I hadn’t realised Plato had died. Sorry to hear that - when did it happen?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.0 -
Absolutely brilliantly spoken, by someone happy to be EU rule taker not rule shaper and you’re equally content to patronise anyone who don’t like the thought of that.DougSeal said:Happy Birthday! The one thing that led me to register and comment on this site for the first time this year, after 5 or 6 years of lurking, was my blood boiling at the use of the word “subjugation” and “vassalage” in the context of Brexit. England (the Celts get a pass on this one) is a very lucky country that has not suffered subjugation for nearly a millennium. To actually be subjugated, to experience the horror of it, makes the use of that word to describe a legally binding customs arrangement, which one wouldn’t know much about unless one were interested in such matters, and that certainly would have little impact on day to day life, border on the obscene. Only we English could be so historically tin-eared as use it in this context when our neighbours have suffered the real thing in living memory - inflicted by ourselves in at least one case. As for vassalage - I’m not entirely sure that people using it in this context know what that feudal term actually means.
0 -
Calling me a bullshitter? That’s rude. That’s some sort of blasphemy.eristdoof said:
I see "Clean Break" is being used as a euphemism for no deal breaxit, which is laughable because the one thing it won't be is clean.dots said:I have listened to you. I have slept on it. But nothing has changed.
I’m still convinced I’m right. There’s only two options available to Parliament, pass the WA or it’s Clean brexit. Clean brexit isn’t engineered by anybody from here. IT ALREADY HAS BEEN. It’s whether it can be stopped.
Firstly, yes, may be support in parliament for a form of vassalage that could win a majority of votes. But it could never be put to the people for their endorsement as it would fall apart as the vassalage it is in the first week of that ref campaign and soundly defeated by the people.
Secondly times up, A50 was used to negotiate a deal based on red lines not of parliaments choosing but of the Conservative party and its supporters in this country at this time. The A50 time is now gone and it only produced one withdraw agreement.
Thirdly, the indicative vote trash everyone getting distracted by is meaningless unless EU choose to run with the outcome. And the explicit signal from the EU is they are keen on the current WA and failing that, just like the PM, not apparently bothered by clean brexit.
You could make out EU, and May and her cabinet, are lot more keen to avoid Clean Brexit than they are letting on, but if you are convinced of that then you are dangerous.
So Clean Break is still on the table and more potent than ever if people carry on thinking it isn’t.
But my main point is, if the EU really is prepared for a no-deal exit, why on earth did they allow this extension? It makes no sense at all. There was sitll one week to go to allow MV3 and then it really would have been squeaky-bum time.
THroughout the last 3 years too many people have been claiming that they know what the EU wants to do, and most of it was absolut b*****s
I am not second guessing the EU. They are speaking clear and honestly to us in my opinion, its their WA and they want it passed, if not they want to go to Clean brexit rather than kick cliff edge down the road. They have set it up as they did simply to put the blame for no deal in London’s court. They know how Politics works here, parliament powerless versus the executive, and Conservative Party unable to back down.
Later in the day The sagacious Dave Herdson echoed this point, is he Bullshitter too?0 -
True to name, you draw out lots of dots but never seem to be able to join them up.dots said:
Calling me a bullshitter? That’s rude. That’s some sort of blasphemy.eristdoof said:
I see "Clean Break" is being used as a euphemism for no deal breaxit, which is laughable because the one thing it won't be is clean.dots said:I have listened to you. I have slept on it. But nothing has changed.
I’m still convinced I’m right. There’s only two options available to Parliament, pass the WA or it’s Clean brexit. Clean brexit isn’t engineered by anybody from here. IT ALREADY HAS BEEN. It’s whether it can be stopped.
Firstly, yes, may be support in parliament for a form of vassalage that could win a majority of votes. But it could never be put to the people for their endorsement as it would fall apart as the vassalage it is in the first week of that ref campaign and soundly defeated by the people.
Secondly times up, A50 was used to negotiate a deal based on red lines not of parliaments choosing but of the Conservative party and its supporters in this country at this time. The A50 time is now gone and it only produced one withdraw agreement.
Thirdly, the indicative vote trash everyone getting distracted by is meaningless unless EU choose to run with the outcome. And the explicit signal from the EU is they are keen on the current WA and failing that, just like the PM, not apparently bothered by clean brexit.
You could make out EU, and May and her cabinet, are lot more keen to avoid Clean Brexit than they are letting on, but if you are convinced of that then you are dangerous.
So Clean Break is still on the table and more potent than ever if people carry on thinking it isn’t.
But my main point is, if the EU really is prepared for a no-deal exit, why on earth did they allow this extension? It makes no sense at all. There was sitll one week to go to allow MV3 and then it really would have been squeaky-bum time.
THroughout the last 3 years too many people have been claiming that they know what the EU wants to do, and most of it was absolut b*****s
I am not second guessing the EU. They are speaking clear and honestly to us in my opinion, its their WA and they want it passed, if not they want to go to Clean brexit rather than kick cliff edge down the road. They have set it up as they did simply to put the blame for no deal in London’s court. They know how Politics works here, parliament powerless versus the executive, and Conservative Party unable to back down.
Later in the day The sagacious Dave Herdson echoed this point, is he Bullshitter too?0 -
Doesn't really matter which way, the UK will be soon in the Euro, and soon after in a planetary monetary system which won't have the US $ as a reserve currency. Its nearly there now, but very few governments have realised it. Should be fun when they doSean_F said:
Do you want to revoke A50, or do you want to revoke A50 and join the Euro?TudorRose said:One of the criticisms of the 2016 referendum result is that voters didn't agree on what 'Brexit' meant. Do today's marchers agree on what a 'People's Vote' means?
0
