As in most things, I feel like a relative newbie, but have certainly been lurking since well before the 2010 election (“F5 F5 F5 has he gone yet”). So at nearly a decade in, I’ve been around a bit!
I’ve just checked and I didn’t actually sign up until 2014... probably to get stuck in to the 2015 election - at which I made my only ever political bet.. a tenner on Labour. That taught me.
I’ve felt myself getting more prolific, if no more persuasive, during the current unpleasantness!
As I’ve said before, it’s (usually) a far more civilised and (always) far better informed than any discussion on social media, and while most of us don’t have a direct inside track, there’s enough wisdom possessed and shared to add to most posters’ knowledge of what’s going on.
Thanks Mike, Robert (and TSE and many others) - long may it continue.
George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.
Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.
The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.
Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.
The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose? That one?
Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.
There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.
It does rather illustrate the double-standards on offer. Leavers love democracy and that's why they don't want another referendum and would have accepted the result if it went against them, while the democracy-hating Remainers signed a petition for another referendum.
A referendum set up by (democracy-loving) Leavers who thought they were going to lose and didn't want to accept the result if it went against them...
Then again, the people who are marching today would not be offering a second referendum if they had won the first, and nor would they be demanding one if Parliament simply revoked A50.
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.
PV are the Trumpians.
He overestimated his crowd size, just like them.
I always find it easier to assess events after they have actually happened. Chill.
LOL! Good point well made. Someting about it reminded me of the artist Rose Hilton's line when wired by her husband in America 'Come home. I'm dying' to which she replied 'Not yet. I'm living'
This is a great site and my go to place for news and comment, with some really interesting and informative comments below the line. I first came across it in 2007 and lurked for a long time before venturing a comment. I also want to thank you for publishing my articles. It is a privilege.
And I am finally putting a bet on! There’s no point rushing these things.
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.
If it comes to it, I’d (reluctantly) take it too even though it pisses all over the part of the vote against free movement.
Maybe we could beef up the emergency brake clause.
Both Corbyn and May need to pivot to Common Market 2.0 shortly or the FBPE lot are going to depose Corbyn and the Tories will lose power for a long long time.
Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.
I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.
The petition map site is b0rked too at the moment, but last night it was showing some truly remarkable numbers in Remainia Profonde. Both Cambridge and Bristol West were well above 15%, nudging 20%. Boston and Skegness was, shall we say, a little lower.
When I checked it last night there were 17,707 signatures in Corbyn's constituency. I thought that remarkable.
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.
PV are the Trumpians.
He overestimated his crowd size, just like them.
I always find it easier to assess events after they have actually happened. Chill.
I agree, but I’m altering people to the (inevitable) bullshit spin so they are alert to it when it happens later today and viewing it with a sceptical eye.
I wouldn’t have to if the authorities did their job properly.
Are we expecting a lot of Russian tourists on a walking tour of London this afternoon?
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit or sit on it of you are Jezza I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Well said.
I also think the current "shambles" that is our government and legislature is, in its way 'working' - it may not be pretty, but I suspect "it will all turn out all right on the night".
These are features, not bugs - and if leaving the EU forces our politicians to raise their game, so much the better.
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
You are proposing that they have made up the numbers before the march has even assembled? Maybe a bit of a closed mind there?
Today’s organisers will certainly overcook the numbers.
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.
I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
There's a large crowd in Bedford waiting to give Mike Smithson the bumps ..... I've told them not to bother looking for OGH in the barbers or hair salons ..... the wine merchants more so !!
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to go
I can't believe that Ladbrokes is offering 4-1 that she leaves in March, 4-1 that she leaves in April and 8-1 that she leaves in May; this looks like a profitable arbitrage opportunity for someone with funds (so alas not me!).
Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.
I can cite one MAT which is demonstrably not godawful, and mercifully that's the one Mrs Capitano's school belongs to: the Oxford Diocesan Schools Trust. They've just been Ofstedded favourably, and though the full Ofsted letter is worth reading, this Oxford Mail report summarises it neatly: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17519915.ofsteds-new-report-for-oxford-diocesan-schools-trust/
But they do seem to be an exception, in that they're focused on smaller community schools, and they see themselves as supporting rather than controlling schools. There are plenty of horror stories about other MATs in this part of Oxfordshire.
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.
That would be a very ill informed gloat. No one demonstates as often or in greater numbers than the French.
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.
I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
I'm not sure that anything will gain a majority.
I did suggest a process of elimination, but even then, if the winner got say 280 votes, it might still get voted down.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.
That would be a very ill informed gloat. No one demonstates as often or in greater numbers than the French.
I wasnt talking about the amount of protesting. I was talking about the level of associated violence.
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.
I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
I'm not sure that anything will gain a majority.
I did suggest a process of elimination, but even then, if the winner got say 280 votes, it might still get voted down.
On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.
How will jemima and Tarquin ever manage to get cheap as chips tradesman and other staff if we leave the European Union? Won’t anyone think of the future middle managers?
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit or sit on it of you are Jezza I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Well said.
I also think the current "shambles" that is our government and legislature is, in its way 'working' - it may not be pretty, but I suspect "it will all turn out all right on the night".
These are features, not bugs - and if leaving the EU forces our politicians to raise their game, so much the better.
And is pretty much how every other nation in the EU manages its fractious proportional Parliament.
Congratulations to Mike, Robert and all connected with PB for reaching the august age (in March) of "old enough to know better".
I think I was here at an early stage - certainly pre 2005 - and I certainly remember some interesting discourse with Martin Day, the late and much-missed Mark Senior and Mr "Gaylord Ponceyboots" himself, SeanT.
I also remember the bbq on the terrace of the National Liberal Club - a sublime evening of good food and better discourse. I did wonder if some of the Conservatives had issues with being in such a hallowed venue but Gladstone was a Tory once.
Thanks to everyone for keeping the site as fresh and dynamic as it is - it's a regular stop for me in my busy day. Kudos to all the long price bets that came in and well done also to all those who traded off for a profit. I'm still an old fashioned punter at heart.
Thank you to everyone for the discourse - it's sharpened in recent times and especially so since 2008. Too many seem determined to defend a particular line ad infinitum and ad nauseam. PB shouldn't be the equivalent of baseline tennis - occasionally we all have to try to come to the net to move the argument forward.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.
No, they think it is remaining.
Aren't they the same thing (from a Brexiteer perspective)?
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.
I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.
I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
I'm not sure that anything will gain a majority.
I did suggest a process of elimination, but even then, if the winner got say 280 votes, it might still get voted down.
Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to go
I know it would be the end of their Conservative career but they could say, “Quit, or I’ll resign and cross the floor.” Only take about three of these to finish her off as a VONC would then pass.
On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.
Christ this culture war bollocks is tiresome. I went on the last march. Yes, it skewed middle class and white but I didn't see anyone eating quinoa or French cheese (oh the horror). There is a broad swathe of reasonable open minded people in this country who are sick to the back teeth of Brexit and all the damage it has done - chiefly so far the distraction from our real problems, such as the decimation of our public services. For what it's worth I hate quinoa and my kids haven't got wanky names. I am sure you have ten whippets and live exclusively on pies and your kids are all called Jaydon. You see, we can all do it and it's not big or clever. Oh and happy 15 years PB, you are a great news source.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.
No, they think it is remaining.
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.
George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.
Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.
The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.
Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.
The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose? That one?
Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.
There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.
It does rather illustrate the double-standards on offer. Leavers love democracy and that's why they don't want another referendum and would have accepted the result if it went against them, while the democracy-hating Remainers signed a petition for another referendum.
A referendum set up by (democracy-loving) Leavers who thought they were going to lose and didn't want to accept the result if it went against them...
Then again, the people who are marching today would not be offering a second referendum if they had won the first, and nor would they be demanding one if Parliament simply revoked A50.
I have listened to you. I have slept on it. But nothing has changed.
I’m still convinced I’m right. There’s only two options available to Parliament, pass the WA or it’s Clean brexit. Clean brexit isn’t engineered by anybody from here. IT ALREADY HAS BEEN. It’s whether it can be stopped.
Firstly, yes, may be support in parliament for a form of vassalage that could win a majority of votes. But it could never be put to the people for their endorsement as it would fall apart as the vassalage it is in the first week of that ref campaign and soundly defeated by the people. Secondly times up, A50 was used to negotiate a deal based on red lines not of parliaments choosing but of the Conservative party and its supporters in this country at this time. The A50 time is now gone and it only produced one withdraw agreement. Thirdly, the indicative vote trash everyone getting distracted by is meaningless unless EU choose to run with the outcome. And the explicit signal from the EU is they are keen on the current WA and failing that, just like the PM, not apparently bothered by clean brexit.
You could make out EU, and May and her cabinet, are lot more keen to avoid Clean Brexit than they are letting on, but if you are convinced of that then you are dangerous.
So Clean Break is still on the table and more potent than ever if people carry on thinking it isn’t.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.
No, they think it is remaining.
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.
I was going to respond "yes, there's one thing they dislike more, and that's Graham Kendrick" but that would kind of make your point.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.
No, they think it is remaining.
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.
It’s an interesting example.
In England we had a Catholicism exit in name only (Henry VIII), followed by a hard Protestant exit under Edward VI, followed by a hard revoke under Mary I and an eventual CoE compromise under Elizabeth I, which worked in bringing the centre of public opinion in the country on board and establishing it but acknowledge a permanent catholic minority was here to stay, and later tolerated dissidents hard Protestants on the other flank.
That situation effectively still exists today nearly 500 years on.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.
No, they think it is remaining.
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.
It’s an interesting example.
In England we had a Catholicism exit in name only (Henry VIII), followed by a hard Protestant exit under Edward VI, followed by a hard revoke under Mary I and an eventual CoE compromise under Elizabeth I, which worked in bringing the centre of public opinion in the country on board and establishing it but acknowledge a permanent catholic minority was here to stay, and later tolerated dissidents hard Protestants on the other flank.
That situation effectively still exists today nearly 500 years on.
That was pretty much about 40% of my A Level history syllabus...
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.
That would be a very ill informed gloat. No one demonstates as often or in greater numbers than the French.
I wasnt talking about the amount of protesting. I was talking about the level of associated violence.
I’d much rather be here than any of France, Spain or Italy. It’s not all about the weather.
Germany, Netherlands and Denmark are all well run, and I could live there, but I’d have various gripes about the political/social cultures of each.
Happy Birhday PB. I’m not a big stakes player by any means but have had a fair few profitable nights thanks to the insight offered by this site.
I’ve also learned the importance of thinking with your head rather than your heart when placing bets. Brexit and Trump were by far the most profitable events for me as it was clear on the night that the pundits underestimating the probability of both,despite both being the exact opposite of what I wanted to happen.
Some of my favourite memories over the years...
EICIPM JackW’s ARSE Sean T’s rants Tim’s endless ability to wind up the “PB Tories” IOS and the “Labour ground game” Railway geekery Rod Crosby’s models
And a few sad ones too, such as Plato’s steady descent into insanity and the passing away of some posters.
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at all
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.
No, they think it is remaining.
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.
It’s an interesting example.
In England we had a Catholicism exit in name only (Henry VIII), followed by a hard Protestant exit under Edward VI, followed by a hard revoke under Mary I and an eventual CoE compromise under Elizabeth I, which worked in bringing the centre of public opinion in the country on board and establishing it but acknowledge a permanent catholic minority was here to stay, and later tolerated dissidents hard Protestants on the other flank.
That situation effectively still exists today nearly 500 years on.
That was pretty much about 40% of my A Level history syllabus...
If May had more cunning she could do what Walsingham did and lock the ERG out of the chamber.
On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.
Christ this culture war bollocks is tiresome. I went on the last march. Yes, it skewed middle class and white but I didn't see anyone eating quinoa or French cheese (oh the horror). There is a broad swathe of reasonable open minded people in this country who are sick to the back teeth of Brexit and all the damage it has done - chiefly so far the distraction from our real problems, such as the decimation of our public services. For what it's worth I hate quinoa and my kids haven't got wanky names. I am sure you have ten whippets and live exclusively on pies and your kids are all called Jaydon. You see, we can all do it and it's not big or clever. Oh and happy 15 years PB, you are a great news source.
You've got me all wrong - it's a diet of Gregg's steak bakes that keeps me going. Well actually there is a packet of quinoa in our kitchen cupboard, and I don't mind the odd bit of meat substitute on occasion.
I know I'm using a cliché to describe the marchers - well done to those attending for turning out for a cause they believe in. And thank goodness we live in a society where they can do so free from fear.
I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.
The pro Brexit gathering in Plymouth managed the lofty heights of 7 people .
Even more startling one of them bemoaning the state of the UK and its politicians suggested she’s really fed up and advised people to escape from the UK and to move somewhere like Greece !
I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.
True. I was thinking just in terms of changing immediate Government policy which is what I suspect most people going on marches really want.
Thinking back to PB topics over the years: 'Farmy-farm' - what the heck was all that about?
It was a game enjoyed by Gordon Brown (allegedly)
on his rocking horse?
Posters not around back then will now be thinking WTF?!?
Anyways, time to go and annoy the local residents by sticking Labour leaflets through their letterboxes - we've got a council seat to win off the Tories in May.
Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.
I can cite one MAT which is demonstrably not godawful, and mercifully that's the one Mrs Capitano's school belongs to: the Oxford Diocesan Schools Trust. They've just been Ofstedded favourably, and though the full Ofsted letter is worth reading, this Oxford Mail report summarises it neatly: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17519915.ofsteds-new-report-for-oxford-diocesan-schools-trust/
But they do seem to be an exception, in that they're focused on smaller community schools, and they see themselves as supporting rather than controlling schools. There are plenty of horror stories about other MATs in this part of Oxfordshire.
Yes.. happy to degeneralise. Such trusts (even despite my atheist leanings) have been a useful bulwark against the more commercial ones for small schools which weren’t willing or able to stand alone. I suspect most of their members were happy enough with LA involvement and support if they’re anything like the ones I know.
I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.
True. I was thinking just in terms of changing immediate Government policy which is what I suspect most people going on marches really want.
Some people, with just the wrong sort of temperament get wound up watching it on telly and feel they have to do something.
Be interesting later with London and Paris burning in symmetry, could probably see the smoke from space.
Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.
I can cite one MAT which is demonstrably not godawful, and mercifully that's the one Mrs Capitano's school belongs to: the Oxford Diocesan Schools Trust. They've just been Ofstedded favourably, and though the full Ofsted letter is worth reading, this Oxford Mail report summarises it neatly: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17519915.ofsteds-new-report-for-oxford-diocesan-schools-trust/
But they do seem to be an exception, in that they're focused on smaller community schools, and they see themselves as supporting rather than controlling schools. There are plenty of horror stories about other MATs in this part of Oxfordshire.
Yes.. happy to degeneralise. Such trusts (even despite my atheist leanings) have been a useful bulwark against the more commercial ones for small schools which weren’t willing or able to stand alone. I suspect most of their members were happy enough with LA involvement and support if they’re anything like the ones I know.
I think the bigger ones have just become the Capita of education. In many situations independent autonomous management schools is a much better state of affairs than the LEA. Same with outsourcing, it can work, but it doesn’t automatically mean it will.
The multi acedemy trusts are much like the gigantic housing associations, while technically they don’t make a profit, they suck resources from their services to fund multiple layers of corporate management and function in the same parasitic way as many of the worst LEAs.
I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.
Oh good - next time we try to Brexit 40 years after rejoining we will think twice ;-)
Sort of. EU law is supreme because of the 1972 Act and if no SI passes that Act would be repealed automatically on the 29th. So it would no longer be supreme.
I've been lurking here since the conservative leadership process that elected Cameron, back when I was in my early 20s. I guess there are thousands of other lurkers who read regularly and don't post.
Lots of memories from the old days... Angus Reid polls, Swingback theory, tips on Obama, PR squared 🤔.
Thanks to all the Mike and all the contributors and posters who make this site an interesting read.
Let me add my thanks to all involved in making PB a feature of my life. I think I may have a small part in its success as for a number of years I gave presentations to local authorities on how to access political information on the web. PB was one of the case studies.
I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.
The fact that Iraq turned into such a disaster had something to do with it.
The march probably did for Blair's reputation, not listening and then being proved wrong
Sort of. EU law is supreme because of the 1972 Act and if no SI passes that Act would be repealed automatically on the 29th. So it would no longer be supreme.
Yes. I tend to agree that not tidying this up domestically would be a mistake. All sorts of legal mischief/confusion would present themselves
Off to the march so not following the site today but I would just like to add my good wishes to MIke and the team - PB is the best place to follow politics in the U.K. End of.
Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to go
I know it would be the end of their Conservative career but they could say, “Quit, or I’ll resign and cross the floor.” Only take about three of these to finish her off as a VONC would then pass.
Strangely it is her one powerful option she has left - she needs to go and it reminds me of a Gordon Brown at the end. All judgement lost.
Comments
As in most things, I feel like a relative newbie, but have certainly been lurking since well before the 2010 election (“F5 F5 F5 has he gone yet”). So at nearly a decade in, I’ve been around a bit!
I’ve just checked and I didn’t actually sign up until 2014... probably to get stuck in to the 2015 election - at which I made my only ever political bet.. a tenner on Labour. That taught me.
I’ve felt myself getting more prolific, if no more persuasive, during the current unpleasantness!
As I’ve said before, it’s (usually) a far more civilised and (always) far better informed than any discussion on social media, and while most of us don’t have a direct inside track, there’s enough wisdom possessed and shared to add to most posters’ knowledge of what’s going on.
Thanks Mike, Robert (and TSE and many others) - long may it continue.
I'm sure many PBers can say likewise.
While some such as Mark Senior have died others have disappeared.
But they all helped make PB what it is.
How does one tell the difference?
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1109352198188732416
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Edit: Thank you to the Smithsons for the site.
In its own small way, it’s a vital contribution to democratic discourse in this country. Utmost respect to Mike and all the gang.
I first discovered PB ten years ago, when Brown was PM, and I was a centrist, mildly Eurosceptic Tory.
What a difference ten years makes!
I also think the current "shambles" that is our government and legislature is, in its way 'working' - it may not be pretty, but I suspect "it will all turn out all right on the night".
These are features, not bugs - and if leaving the EU forces our politicians to raise their game, so much the better.
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.
Then she turned on all the taps, undermined the levies, and punctured the water siloes.
She needs to go as soon as possible.
But they do seem to be an exception, in that they're focused on smaller community schools, and they see themselves as supporting rather than controlling schools. There are plenty of horror stories about other MATs in this part of Oxfordshire.
I did suggest a process of elimination, but even then, if the winner got say 280 votes, it might still get voted down.
The best news and political debating site on the web by a country mile.
And is pretty much how every other nation in the EU manages its fractious proportional Parliament.
Congratulations to Mike, Robert and all connected with PB for reaching the august age (in March) of "old enough to know better".
I think I was here at an early stage - certainly pre 2005 - and I certainly remember some interesting discourse with Martin Day, the late and much-missed Mark Senior and Mr "Gaylord Ponceyboots" himself, SeanT.
I also remember the bbq on the terrace of the National Liberal Club - a sublime evening of good food and better discourse. I did wonder if some of the Conservatives had issues with being in such a hallowed venue but Gladstone was a Tory once.
Thanks to everyone for keeping the site as fresh and dynamic as it is - it's a regular stop for me in my busy day. Kudos to all the long price bets that came in and well done also to all those who traded off for a profit. I'm still an old fashioned punter at heart.
Thank you to everyone for the discourse - it's sharpened in recent times and especially so since 2008. Too many seem determined to defend a particular line ad infinitum and ad nauseam. PB shouldn't be the equivalent of baseline tennis - occasionally we all have to try to come to the net to move the argument forward.
https://twitter.com/PietEeckhout/status/1108123893888442368
Anyway, I must be off.
I’m still convinced I’m right. There’s only two options available to Parliament, pass the WA or it’s Clean brexit. Clean brexit isn’t engineered by anybody from here. IT ALREADY HAS BEEN. It’s whether it can be stopped.
Firstly, yes, may be support in parliament for a form of vassalage that could win a majority of votes. But it could never be put to the people for their endorsement as it would fall apart as the vassalage it is in the first week of that ref campaign and soundly defeated by the people.
Secondly times up, A50 was used to negotiate a deal based on red lines not of parliaments choosing but of the Conservative party and its supporters in this country at this time. The A50 time is now gone and it only produced one withdraw agreement.
Thirdly, the indicative vote trash everyone getting distracted by is meaningless unless EU choose to run with the outcome. And the explicit signal from the EU is they are keen on the current WA and failing that, just like the PM, not apparently bothered by clean brexit.
You could make out EU, and May and her cabinet, are lot more keen to avoid Clean Brexit than they are letting on, but if you are convinced of that then you are dangerous.
So Clean Break is still on the table and more potent than ever if people carry on thinking it isn’t.
In England we had a Catholicism exit in name only (Henry VIII), followed by a hard Protestant exit under Edward VI, followed by a hard revoke under Mary I and an eventual CoE compromise under Elizabeth I, which worked in bringing the centre of public opinion in the country on board and establishing it but acknowledge a permanent catholic minority was here to stay, and later tolerated dissidents hard Protestants on the other flank.
That situation effectively still exists today nearly 500 years on.
Germany, Netherlands and Denmark are all well run, and I could live there, but I’d have various gripes about the political/social cultures of each.
I actually rather like Poland too.
I’ve also learned the importance of thinking with your head rather than your heart when placing bets. Brexit and Trump were by far the most profitable events for me as it was clear on the night that the pundits underestimating the probability of both,despite both being the exact opposite of what I wanted to happen.
Some of my favourite memories over the years...
EICIPM
JackW’s ARSE
Sean T’s rants
Tim’s endless ability to wind up the “PB Tories”
IOS and the “Labour ground game”
Railway geekery
Rod Crosby’s models
And a few sad ones too, such as Plato’s steady descent into insanity and the passing away of some posters.
I know I'm using a cliché to describe the marchers - well done to those attending for turning out for a cause they believe in. And thank goodness we live in a society where they can do so free from fear.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
Even more startling one of them bemoaning the state of the UK and its politicians suggested she’s really fed up and advised people to escape from the UK and to move somewhere like Greece !
Stupid is as stupid does !
https://twitter.com/magnusllewellin/status/1109371038247370752
Anyways, time to go and annoy the local residents by sticking Labour leaflets through their letterboxes - we've got a council seat to win off the Tories in May.
https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/131215
Be interesting later with London and Paris burning in symmetry, could probably see the smoke from space.
The multi acedemy trusts are much like the gigantic housing associations, while technically they don’t make a profit, they suck resources from their services to fund multiple layers of corporate management and function in the same parasitic way as many of the worst LEAs.
I've been lurking here since the conservative leadership process that elected Cameron, back when I was in my early 20s. I guess there are thousands of other lurkers who read regularly and don't post.
Lots of memories from the old days... Angus Reid polls, Swingback theory, tips on Obama, PR squared 🤔.
Thanks to all the Mike and all the contributors and posters who make this site an interesting read.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1109413273198301185?s=20
The march probably did for Blair's reputation, not listening and then being proved wrong
Congratulations, Mike!
And well done to all thread writers, like TSE, Cyclefree, Alastair M, David H, and everyone else!
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1109414086918455296