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In times past you'd have been smashing up looms.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.0 -
No referendum option? "Abandon" implies straight revoke for most people I'd assume, and there will be plenty remainers very uncomfortable with that (at least without the figleaf-democratic justification of another vote).CarlottaVance said:
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So revoke Article 50 and abandon Brexit is the most popular option, but Leave with a Deal and Leave with No Deal combined has more support than revoke Article 50. Leave with a Deal is thus still the favoured option of the median voterCarlottaVance said:0 -
Thanks Mike, and well done us! #pb150
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I was meaning British governments generically whether Major with his community of nations, Blair with the CAP reform (hah!) or Cameron’s Bloomberg speechwilliamglenn said:
We meaning the Conservative party?Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
IMV all of those would have been improvements but there wasn’t the support for them in the EU0 -
Well done Mike- who made this site from his study at Lonsdale Road in Oxford if I recall.
I'm a latecomer- crashing on the site during the 2005 election. My highlight remains the 2006 Italian election- a Monday night when Prodi was interchanging with Berlusconi and the betfair markets were going bananas. PbCOM at it's best.
Good to see the old guard still around too.
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IT is for me. And I am part of us as much as anyone else. Am getting increasingly tired of being told, from the PM downwards, what we, and therefore, by extension I think.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
If there's one thing we have learned from Brexit, it is that there is no us.0 -
4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.0
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Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/0 -
I think abandon could mean a bit of both . They should have been clearer .Andrew said:
No referendum option? "Abandon" implies straight revoke for most people I'd assume, and there will be plenty remainers very uncomfortable with that (at least without the figleaf-democratic justification of another vote).CarlottaVance said:0 -
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No, I wouldn’t.IanB2 said:
In times past you'd have been smashing up looms.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
But I wouldn’t have been investing in cartwainers after the invention of the motor car0 -
The PM thinking it was wise to address a divided nation on TV with the strapline "I am on your side" remains the most breathtaking misjudgement.dixiedean said:
IT is for me. And I am part of us as much as anyone else. Am getting increasingly tired of being told, from the PM downwards, what we, and therefore, by extension I think.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
If there's one thing we have learned from Brexit, it is that there is no us.0 -
Happy Birthday! The one thing that led me to register and comment on this site for the first time this year, after 5 or 6 years of lurking, was my blood boiling at the use of the word “subjugation” and “vassalage” in the context of Brexit. England (the Celts get a pass on this one) is a very lucky country that has not suffered subjugation for nearly a millennium. To actually be subjugated, to experience the horror of it, makes the use of that word to describe a legally binding customs arrangement, which one wouldn’t know much about unless one were interested in such matters, and that certainly would have little impact on day to day life, border on the obscene. Only we English could be so historically tin-eared as use it in this context when our neighbours have suffered the real thing in living memory - inflicted by ourselves in at least one case. As for vassalage - I’m not entirely sure that people using it in this context know what that feudal term actually means.0
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May has never missed an opportunity to shit on the the young, the metropolitans, the immigrants, and the makers.IanB2 said:
The PM thinking it was wise to address a divided nation on TV with the strapline "I am on your side" remains the most breathtaking misjudgement.dixiedean said:
IT is for me. And I am part of us as much as anyone else. Am getting increasingly tired of being told, from the PM downwards, what we, and therefore, by extension I think.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
If there's one thing we have learned from Brexit, it is that there is no us.0 -
Thing is there is a profound disagreement in this country on the way forwarddixiedean said:
IT is for me. And I am part of us as much as anyone else. Am getting increasingly tired of being told, from the PM downwards, what we, and therefore, by extension I think.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
If there's one thing we have learned from Brexit, it is that there is no us.
In past times we might of got pointy sticks and selected some fields up and down the country to thrash out our differences
But there’s this wonderful thing called democracy. We asked everyone their opinion, added up the totals and went down the path that more people preferred
Isn’t that a wonderful system?0 -
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus0 -
Excepting the Casino theory that these photos are all photoshopped, this march in London is going to be big.0
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Tories out for 12 years minimum - all due to Brexit.Charles said:
Nah after we leave we’ll have 3 months of anguished “what have we done” articles, 6 months of doom spotting and then we’ll move onto other thingseristdoof said:
Nothing is "going to end this thing" what ever happens. The country is split and passions are strong.Charles said:
The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!Gallowgate said:
No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.notme2 said:
Well get your MP to vote for the WA.Gallowgate said:The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.
The FTA will attract much less attention.
The autumn GE is going to be fun though
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Well, as a gentlemens' disagreement, I think that you would. It's all about hankering for an irretrievable past.Charles said:
No, I wouldn’t.IanB2 said:
In times past you'd have been smashing up looms.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
But I wouldn’t have been investing in cartwainers after the invention of the motor car0 -
For sure. It's great that we spent nearly three years following that path. Then reached the dead end that forces us to rethink.Charles said:
Thing is there is a profound disagreement in this country on the way forwarddixiedean said:
IT is for me. And I am part of us as much as anyone else. Am getting increasingly tired of being told, from the PM downwards, what we, and therefore, by extension I think.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
If there's one thing we have learned from Brexit, it is that there is no us.
In past times we might of got pointy sticks and selected some fields up and down the country to thrash out our differences
But there’s this wonderful thing called democracy. We asked everyone their opinion, added up the totals and went down the path that more people preferred
Isn’t that a wonderful system?0 -
IT is indeed. Which is why I dissent.Charles said:
Thing is there is a profound disagreement in this country on the way forwarddixiedean said:
IT is for me. And I am part of us as much as anyone else. Am getting increasingly tired of being told, from the PM downwards, what we, and therefore, by extension I think.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
If there's one thing we have learned from Brexit, it is that there is no us.
In past times we might of got pointy sticks and selected some fields up and down the country to thrash out our differences
But there’s this wonderful thing called democracy. We asked everyone their opinion, added up the totals and went down the path that more people preferred
Isn’t that a wonderful system?0 -
I kind of despair. We have people who are the epitome of metropolitan elites bemoaning other metropolitan elites as if they were working-class. The Spectator is a very well-funded support group for twats. It attracts people who earn way too much money writing polemics, have no observable job, and have repellent personal habits that nobody has ever slapped them out of. I just can't help but think "Look, get a proper job, see if you can hold it down for more than five minutes, and fix your fucking teeth while you're at it. God knows you can afford it."Theuniondivvie said:
So has Giles Fraser I think. If that's not an inducement...viewcode said:
Rod Liddle has just joined it, I believe. So if you want to be in the same party as Rod Liddle, there is...that.AndyJS said:I'm considering whether to join this party:
https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/0 -
Yep. Rejoining.Charles said:
It’s a step on the path.eek said:
And May’s deal with all negotiations to follow ends things?Charles said:
The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!Gallowgate said:
No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.notme2 said:
Well get your MP to vote for the WA.Gallowgate said:The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.
9-12 months after we leave people will be talking about something else0 -
I think you're getting high on your own supply. Revoke is certainly not the consensus among the public.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Take out the DKs, and Revoke is already in the low 40s. Given that a fair chunk of those wanting a new deal and later exit will be supporting a soft Brexit, that's where the consensus is right now.nico67 said:
But only 24% support no deal. So there’s no mandate for a no deal . And the ERG telling everyone Leavers voted for no deal in 2016 is just another lie being peddled by them.Floater said:
So leaving a clear favouriteCarlottaVance said:
The ERG stance is making things worse and is driving Remainers who were willing to accept and move on into the either just revoke or another EU vote .0 -
Defeat of ISIS claimed as their last territory falls to the Syrian Democratic Forces
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47678157#0 -
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
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This is not news. Among the public, as in parliament, there are a large number of remainers who feel it's important to respect the result of the referendum. This does not mean they'd vote Leave if we had a second referendum.Floater said:
So leaving a clear favouriteCarlottaVance said:0 -
Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.0
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What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
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That's a lot of steam.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
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We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union0 -
You misunderstood. Very soft Brexit is the current consensus. Although every action by the Brexit ultras pushes it towards calling the whole thing off.Sean_F said:
I think you're getting high on your own supply. Revoke is certainly not the consensus among the public.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Take out the DKs, and Revoke is already in the low 40s. Given that a fair chunk of those wanting a new deal and later exit will be supporting a soft Brexit, that's where the consensus is right now.nico67 said:
But only 24% support no deal. So there’s no mandate for a no deal . And the ERG telling everyone Leavers voted for no deal in 2016 is just another lie being peddled by them.Floater said:
So leaving a clear favouriteCarlottaVance said:
The ERG stance is making things worse and is driving Remainers who were willing to accept and move on into the either just revoke or another EU vote .0 -
And the steam from Leavers' boiling piss is inexhaustible, so a clear win for them.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
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It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.0 -
i bow to your superior knowledge on thatTheuniondivvie said:
And the steam from Leavers' boiling piss is inexhaustible, so a clear win for them.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
i prefer Evian0 -
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush
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Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/0 -
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/0 -
I thought the same with Mrs JackW's solo efforts to revive the British shoe industry .... not quite 5-6 million pairs but at times it appears too close to call !! ....bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
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It's an impressive number, but 16m voted Remain, and clicking a website requires little effort.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
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It's not 1982. Joining the SDP in 2019 is throwing yourself into the political wilderness where the rest of us can ignore you.AndyJS said:I'm considering whether to join this party:
https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/0 -
Funnily enough that would also have the benefit of killing Corbyn with referendum / remain backersSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
....0 -
Here twitchers are going crazy over a rare UK sighting of a Great Spotted CuckooSandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush0 -
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.0 -
Meanwhile 17.4 million people who quietly voted leave who go and and work and don’t go marching and shouting quietly wait for their democratic vote to be honoured. Who were told the vote would be implementedtottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.0 -
You piss Evian? I'm assuming it's still pretty steamy when it escapes.bigjohnowls said:
i bow to your superior knowledge on thatTheuniondivvie said:
And the steam from Leavers' boiling piss is inexhaustible, so a clear win for them.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
i prefer Evian0 -
Yes - and who knows in what form? I think no deal was certainly not advertised as the outcome though so a bit of reflection on that would work wonders and the naysayers might back her deal... or run the risk of remainingkjohnw said:
Meanwhile 17.4 million people who quietly voted leave who go and and work and don’t go marching and shouting quietly wait for their democratic vote to be honoured. Who were told the vote would be implementedtottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.0 -
I hear owls, but never see them.SandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush0 -
Call me old fashioned but perhaps the government should honour the biggest vote ever, before they start worrying about the biggest petition, and the biggest march.tottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.0 -
But they can't - in large part because the ERG Brexiteers won't support it. What irony, heyglw said:
Call me old fashioned but perhaps the government should honour the biggest vote ever, before they start worrying about the biggest petition, and the biggest march.tottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides. 0 -
Shows how stupid May was to try and drive through a marginal decision with such large implications and an entrenched opposition.kjohnw said:
Meanwhile 17.4 million people who quietly voted leave who go and and work and don’t go marching and shouting quietly wait for their democratic vote to be honoured. Who were told the vote would be implementedtottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.0 -
Is there a graph anywhere of volume over time?bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
Here PB twitchers are going crazy over a rare UK sighting of the Great Tit Stuart Dickson ....IanB2 said:
Here twitchers are going crazy over a rare UK sighting of a Great Spotted CuckooSandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush0 -
As a point of order, many Leavers don’t work.kjohnw said:
Meanwhile 17.4 million people who quietly voted leave who go and and work and don’t go marching and shouting quietly wait for their democratic vote to be honoured. Who were told the vote would be implementedtottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.
Remain had a clear majority among those in work.
Ashcroft: A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension.
0 -
As with Blair, it wont influence the decision, but it may well shape the legacy.glw said:
Call me old fashioned but perhaps the government should honour the biggest vote ever, before they start worrying about the biggest petition, and the biggest march.tottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.0 -
LOL. That is rather funny.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Launched in February. Slowly rose to 60,000 sigs before the moment that our PriMino decided it was a good idea to go live on TV. Since when it has spiralled inexorably upwards.BigIan said:
Is there a graph anywhere of volume over time?bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
0 -
But then you have to think in an actual referendum the remain campaign would be worth at least another 4% for leave...HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/
I mean given these are people who think it's actually a good idea to gloat about the number of grannies that have died since 2016...
Image the kind of campaign they'd run in a second go-round.
I think it'd be very close again but certainly wouldn't rule out NO DEAL winning a People's Vote.0 -
If we crash out to no deal, how is that honouring the vote? It isn't honouring mine. I voted to leave, but on the presumption - which now looks somewhat foolish - that we would leave in an orderly fashion, in a way that maintained close ties with our neighbours while disentangling ourselves from the political project of the EU. I did not vote to leave so that a small minority of hardliners within Parliament could force us out on the worst possible terms and quite probably tank the economy while doing so, all to prove an ideological point.glw said:
Call me old fashioned but perhaps the government should honour the biggest vote ever, before they start worrying about the biggest petition, and the biggest march.tottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.
0 -
We all heard of the owls and then Ed got a public BREXITSean_F said:
I hear owls, but never see them.SandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush0 -
That would be hilarious, given the anger it would cause among many Tory MPs. I suppose the questions are whether enough Tories hate the idea that it would not pass even with many Labour MPs in support, and whether the Cabinet factions would blow up over the idea, because it really really seems like the sort of option that will cause X number to say they will resign and so she won't do it. The number of angry Tory MPs is almost a secondary consideration because in several votes a majority have been against her anyway, and everyone knows she will not be post much longer, so its about whether she can keep it together long enough to hold a vote.HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
That doesn't sound that remarkable to me. Labour were out of power for 18 years, then Tories out for 13 years, and Tories (albeit not in a majority for most of it) have led the government for the last 9 years. It would seem pretty normal if, in the event of a GE, the Tories are out for around a decade.logical_song said:
Tories out for 12 years minimum - all due to Brexit.Charles said:
Nah after we leave we’ll have 3 months of anguished “what have we done” articles, 6 months of doom spotting and then we’ll move onto other thingseristdoof said:
Nothing is "going to end this thing" what ever happens. The country is split and passions are strong.Charles said:
The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!Gallowgate said:
No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.notme2 said:
Well get your MP to vote for the WA.Gallowgate said:The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.
The FTA will attract much less attention.
The autumn GE is going to be fun though
0 -
Not if you want it to pass (I don't believe we'll even see if come forward). But Corbyn's version is probably more popular on the basis he could get a lot of Lab MPs to do it and some Tory MPs, whereas May's deal can get most Tory MPs and virtually no Lab MPs.SandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/0 -
No House Sparrows ?SandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush
No Collared Doves, Pied Wagtails, Magpies, Gulls, Ducks ?
Too early for House Martins etc.0 -
And how they would deserve it, for putting their obsessions ahead of the national interest. If only we had a credible alternative government in waiting.kle4 said:
That would be hilarious, given the anger it would cause among many Tory MPs. I suppose the questions are whether enough Tories hate the idea that it would not pass even with many Labour MPs in support, and whether the Cabinet factions would blow up over the idea, because it really really seems like the sort of option that will cause X number to say they will resign and so she won't do it. The number of angry Tory MPs is almost a secondary consideration because in several votes a majority have been against her anyway, and everyone knows she will not be post much longer, so its about whether she can keep it together long enough to hold a vote.HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
That doesn't sound that remarkable to me. Labour were out of power for 18 years, then Tories out for 13 years, and Tories (albeit not in a majority for most of it) have led the government for the last 9 years. It would seem pretty normal if, in the event of a GE, the Tories are out for around a decade.logical_song said:
Tories out for 12 years minimum - all due to Brexit.Charles said:
Nah after we leave we’ll have 3 months of anguished “what have we done” articles, 6 months of doom spotting and then we’ll move onto other thingseristdoof said:
Nothing is "going to end this thing" what ever happens. The country is split and passions are strong.Charles said:
The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!Gallowgate said:
No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.notme2 said:
Well get your MP to vote for the WA.Gallowgate said:The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.
The FTA will attract much less attention.
The autumn GE is going to be fun though0 -
I thought some of those Leavers were marching from Sunderland to London? Farage even addressed 200 of them in Nottinghamshire this morning.kjohnw said:
Meanwhile 17.4 million people who quietly voted leave who go and and work and don’t go marching and shouting quietly wait for their democratic vote to be honoured. Who were told the vote would be implementedtottenhamWC said:
It's a statement of intent. Biggest petition ever and (maybe - we will see) the biggest march ever in UK too.bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
Doubt it achieves anything specific but it puts a clear marker against no deal at a minimum and may encourage MPs to have the courage of their convictions to act accordingly - on all sides.
On Friday there is the 'March to Leave' in London too
https://m.evensi.uk/29th-march-parliament-square-leave/295655450-1 -
Leavers are suddenly on the back foot and need to tread carefully... eg. there's a blockade of Fishguard planned for tomorrow, which will feed into the narrative of Leave being disruptive (and Leavers being sore winners). If Leavers in parliament don't tell May quickly that they'll swallow their pride and back her, their Brexit dream may soon be over.0
-
Neither did I. I'm merely pointing out that people arguing for second referendums based upon the numbers signing a petition or marching ought first to consider the much larger number of people who actually voted.kyf_100 said:If we crash out to no deal, how is that honouring the vote? It isn't honouring mine. I voted to leave, but on the presumption - which now looks somewhat foolish - that we would leave in an orderly fashion, in a way that maintained close ties with our neighbours while disentangling ourselves from the political project of the EU. I did not vote to leave so that a small minority of hardliners within Parliament could force us out on the worst possible terms and quite probably tank the economy while doing so, all to prove an ideological point.
If you think 4 million "signatures" means something then surely 17 million votes is even more significant.
0 -
Pretty much, with Labour, SNP, LD and Tory Remainer votes it would probably get a majority tooSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/0 -
"Trump on track for landslide win in 2020, according to multiple economic models that have consistently predicted presidential winners
President's re-election could be propelled by strong economic figures and incumbent advantages"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-2020-win-polls-us-election-campaign-democrats-a8835186.html0 -
The lack of House Sparrows and Collared Doves is definitely a surprise. Plenty of gulls in the area but they don't drop in to the garden. There was a redwing in next door's garden back in January but it failed to come into ours.another_richard said:
No House Sparrows ?SandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush
No Collared Doves, Pied Wagtails, Magpies, Gulls, Ducks ?
Too early for House Martins etc.0 -
If it does go to indicative voting, I guess it would be something like:-kle4 said:
Not if you want it to pass (I don't believe we'll even see if come forward). But Corbyn's version is probably more popular on the basis he could get a lot of Lab MPs to do it and some Tory MPs, whereas May's deal can get most Tory MPs and virtually no Lab MPs.SandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the singleRichard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but thatip.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over N
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
Revoke 120
Second Referendum (but on what?) 150
Leave without a Deal 120
Norway 50
May's Deal 150
CU 50
at stage 1.
Revoke, May's Deal, and No Deal start high, but won't pick up many additional votes,
0 -
It's a nice thought, but do you actually think it is actually being considered or is it just talk designed to try to scare ERG types?HYUFD said:
Pretty much, with Labour, SNP, LD and Tory Remainer votes it would probably get a majority tooSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/0 -
Perhaps, but it is all hypothetical anyway as the Commons would only ever allow a Remain v Deal 2nd referendum, it would never vote to allow No Deal on the ballot paperGIN1138 said:
But then you have to think in an actual referendum the remain campaign would be worth at least another 4% for leave...HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/
I mean given these are people who think it's actually a good idea to gloat about the number of grannies that have died since 2016...
Image the kind of campaign they'd run in a second go-round.
I think it'd be very close again but certainly wouldn't rule out NO DEAL winning a People's Vote.0 -
Given as far as we know Brexit has been cancelled (29th March is off and there's no other firm date for Leave) I would expect civil disobedience to grow incrementally through the week.Dadge said:Leavers are suddenly on the back foot and need to tread carefully... eg. there's a blockade of Fishguard planned for tomorrow, which will feed into the narrative of Leave being disruptive (and Leavers being sore winners). If Leavers in parliament don't tell May quickly that they'll swallow their pride and back her, their Brexit dream may soon be over.
I doubt there's anything any politician can do to stop it we just have to hope there's no violence.0 -
Telegraph cartoonists talk about Brexit
A 3-minute video
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/seeing-bright-side-brexit-behind-scenes-telegraph-cartoonists/0 -
A majority of Tory MPs have already voted to keep No Deal on the table and against an extension of Article 50 but MPs as a whole voted to rule out No Deal and for extension. In a hung parliament May's Deal and permanent Customs Union would probably get through given May is proposing it would be part of a series of indicative votes including No Deal and revoke Article 50 rather than just a one off votekle4 said:
That would be hilarious, given the anger it would cause among many Tory MPs. I suppose the questions are whether enough Tories hate the idea that it would not pass even with many Labour MPs in support, and whether the Cabinet factions would blow up over the idea, because it really really seems like the sort of option that will cause X number to say they will resign and so she won't do it. The number of angry Tory MPs is almost a secondary consideration because in several votes a majority have been against her anyway, and everyone knows she will not be post much longer, so its about whether she can keep it together long enough to hold a vote.HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
That doesn't sound that remarkable to me. Labour were out of power for 18 years, then Tories out for 13 years, and Tories (albeit not in a majority for most of it) have led the government for the last 9 years. It would seem pretty normal if, in the event of a GE, the Tories are out for around a decade.logical_song said:
Tories out for 12 years minimum - all due to Brexit.Charles said:
Nah after we leave we’ll have 3 months of anguished “what have we done” articles, 6 months of doom spotting and then we’ll move onto other thingseristdoof said:
Nothing is "going to end this thing" what ever happens. The country is split and passions are strong.Charles said:
The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!Gallowgate said:
No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.notme2 said:
Well get your MP to vote for the WA.Gallowgate said:The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.
The FTA will attract much less attention.
The autumn GE is going to be fun though0 -
I think I have a better idea than you about what I “hanker for”!IanB2 said:
Well, as a gentlemens' disagreement, I think that you would. It's all about hankering for an irretrievable past.Charles said:
No, I wouldn’t.IanB2 said:
In times past you'd have been smashing up looms.Charles said:
It is for this countryIanB2 said:
Walking out is not reform.Charles said:
That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.IanB2 said:
The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.JoeJamesBroughton said:After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.
“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword
We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.
But I wouldn’t have been investing in cartwainers after the invention of the motor car0 -
Be thankful there are no magpies. If there were a fair few of the birds on Sandy's list would be absent. Having Magpies in your garden is almost as bad as having a cat.another_richard said:
No House Sparrows ?SandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush
No Collared Doves, Pied Wagtails, Magpies, Gulls, Ducks ?
Too early for House Martins etc.0 -
There is a bit of a misconception that the petition is intended in some way to displace the referendum. Petitions are, and always have been, a request to Parliament to consider an issue. It’s only recently that information technology has allowed them to be presented in this manner. The petition is currently the only means by which people who really think that the country is headed down a disasterous road can put their case to the sole body that can make a difference. It’s not a pissing contest with the referendum. It couldn’t be. No one has promised to honour the petition - it is merely an address to Parliament to debate reconsidering acting on the referendum in the light of subsequent events. It will be rejected, but it will have made its poitnt, and may possibly act as leverage to a softer Brexit - as with the march today.glw said:
Neither did I. I'm merely pointing out that people arguing for second referendums based upon the numbers signing a petition or marching ought first to consider the much larger number of people who actually voted.kyf_100 said:If we crash out to no deal, how is that honouring the vote? It isn't honouring mine. I voted to leave, but on the presumption - which now looks somewhat foolish - that we would leave in an orderly fashion, in a way that maintained close ties with our neighbours while disentangling ourselves from the political project of the EU. I did not vote to leave so that a small minority of hardliners within Parliament could force us out on the worst possible terms and quite probably tank the economy while doing so, all to prove an ideological point.
If you think 4 million "signatures" means something then surely 17 million votes is even more significant.0 -
Piesanother_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
0 -
No sensible politician will allow no deal onto a ballot paper. Direct democracy is all very well but there is no point in offering people idiotic solutions.GIN1138 said:
But then you have to think in an actual referendum the remain campaign would be worth at least another 4% for leave...HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/
I mean given these are people who think it's actually a good idea to gloat about the number of grannies that have died since 2016...
Image the kind of campaign they'd run in a second go-round.
I think it'd be very close again but certainly wouldn't rule out NO DEAL winning a People's Vote.0 -
She’s putting her heart and sole into it. Your job is to toe the line and unlace the purse strings. Don’t let your tongue flap or she’ll call you to heel as soon as you blow your hornJackW said:
I thought the same with Mrs JackW's solo efforts to revive the British shoe industry .... not quite 5-6 million pairs but at times it appears too close to call !! ....bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
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Pretty sure it would not be supported by Lib Dems, SNP, TIG, Plaid, or Lucas. That's 62 votes. Many Labour Remainers would oppose it, along with Conservative hardliners.kle4 said:
It's a nice thought, but do you actually think it is actually being considered or is it just talk designed to try to scare ERG types?HYUFD said:
Pretty much, with Labour, SNP, LD and Tory Remainer votes it would probably get a majority tooSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No DealRichard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/0 -
I hadn’t realised Plato had died. Sorry to hear that - when did it happen?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.0 -
That's why, if we have another referendum, the first round would have to be a repeat of the 23rd June 2016 vote, ie. just Remain or Leave. The second round would then have to determine what type of Remaining or Leaving it would be. Doing it the other way round would lead to a lot of disillusionment.HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/0 -
I still find it incredible that a third of Conservative MPs are willing to 'twist on twenty' by supporting No Deal.Sean_F said:
If it does go to indicative voting, I guess it would be something like:-kle4 said:
Not if you want it to pass (I don't believe we'll even see if come forward). But Corbyn's version is probably more popular on the basis he could get a lot of Lab MPs to do it and some Tory MPs, whereas May's deal can get most Tory MPs and virtually no Lab MPs.SandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the singleRichard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the single market and Customs Union anyway and do not apply to join EFTA until a solution has finally been agreed on the Irish borderRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but thatip.
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over N
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/
Revoke 120
Second Referendum (but on what?) 150
Leave without a Deal 120
Norway 50
May's Deal 150
CU 50
at stage 1.
Revoke, May's Deal, and No Deal start high, but won't pick up many additional votes,0 -
Absolutely it is being considered, May will apparently propose it as part of a series of indicative votes alongside her Deal as it is, revoke Article 50, EUref2, No Deal and single market and customs union. The aim being to force the Commons to come to a decisionkle4 said:
It's a nice thought, but do you actually think it is actually being considered or is it just talk designed to try to scare ERG types?HYUFD said:
Pretty much, with Labour, SNP, LD and Tory Remainer votes it would probably get a majority tooSandyRentool said:
Wouldn't that be better referred to as Corbyn's Deal?HYUFD said:
Indeed May is already said to be considering allowing a vote on her Deal with a permanent Customs Union attached to win over Labour MPsHYUFD said:
We probably can. It is the EU who have said we have to stay in the Customs Union to avoid a hard border in Ireland until an alternative solution is found, if we agree to free movement we could probably stay in the single market too and be a third element of the EEA.Richard_Tyndall said:
We cannot. Single Market membership is a function of membership of the EEA and you can only be in the EEA if you are in the EU or EFTA. This is just more unicorns.HYUFD said:
Then we stay in the derRichard_Tyndall said:
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesnbership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
If not then we would just leave the full single market and EEA but stay in a permanent Customs Union which Juncker has confirmed is an option for us in terms of revisiting the backstop and the Commons would vote for permanent Customs Union over No Deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/juncker-may-backstop-eu-customs-union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/22/theresa-may-gambles-customs-union-vote-boris-johnson-reminds/0 -
I believe "The Master" himself is on record as saying another referendum would have to have some form of Farage type"hard" Brexit on it (as well as other options) ?IanB2 said:
No sensible politician will allow no deal onto a ballot paper. Direct democracy is all very well but there is no point in offering people idiotic solutions.GIN1138 said:
But then you have to think in an actual referendum the remain campaign would be worth at least another 4% for leave...HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/
I mean given these are people who think it's actually a good idea to gloat about the number of grannies that have died since 2016...
Image the kind of campaign they'd run in a second go-round.
I think it'd be very close again but certainly wouldn't rule out NO DEAL winning a People's Vote.
0 -
Magpie is on the list.Richard_Tyndall said:
Be thankful there are no magpies. If there were a fair few of the birds on Sandy's list would be absent. Having Magpies in your garden is almost as bad as having a cat.another_richard said:
No House Sparrows ?SandyRentool said:
OK - here goes:another_richard said:
What are the other 27 ?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Lesser Redpoll in the garden. 28th species to visit this year.
Blackbird
Great spotted woodpecker
Coal tit
Great tit
Blue tit
Dunnock
Jackdaw
Chaffinch
Wood pigeon
Robin
Jay
Nuthatch
Magpie
Carrion crow
Tree sparrow
Long tailed tit
Starling
Sparrowhawk
Wren
Bullfinch
Goldfinch
Pheasant
Siskin
Stock dove
Tawny owl
Greenfinch
Song thrush
No Collared Doves, Pied Wagtails, Magpies, Gulls, Ducks ?
Too early for House Martins etc.
For completeness, we've also had a Tree Creeper, but that was last year.0 -
This is the kind of ridiculous rhetorical statement that is giving Brexiters such a bad name. Brexit has not been cancelled. MPs, including Brexiters, have voted against the WA, but parliament has also voted against a 2nd referendum. There is still a significant majority in Parliament committed to seeing Brexit through. Brexiters would do well to work constructively with that, rather than destroying their own cause by attacking the institution that is trying to give them what they want.GIN1138 said:
Given as far as we know Brexit has been cancelled (29th March is off and there's no other firm date for Leave) I would expect civil disobedience to grow incrementally through the week.Dadge said:Leavers are suddenly on the back foot and need to tread carefully... eg. there's a blockade of Fishguard planned for tomorrow, which will feed into the narrative of Leave being disruptive (and Leavers being sore winners). If Leavers in parliament don't tell May quickly that they'll swallow their pride and back her, their Brexit dream may soon be over.
I doubt there's anything any politician can do to stop it we just have to hope there's no violence.0 -
Poor Farage, the former master of publicity, his pitiful march has simply exposed him to ridicule.0
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I though it was because a celeb (Lilly Allen?) retweeted a link - so it’s lots of fans rather than necessarily deep political thinkersIanB2 said:
Launched in February. Slowly rose to 60,000 sigs before the moment that our PriMino decided it was a good idea to go live on TV. Since when it has spiralled inexorably upwards.BigIan said:
Is there a graph anywhere of volume over time?bigjohnowls said:
I think it runs out of steam somewhere between 5 and 6 millionIanB2 said:4,242,721. Officially the largest ever petition on the government website.
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It was reported on here 2-3 months ago but I think she actually died back last Summer?Charles said:
I hadn’t realised Plato had died. Sorry to hear that - when did it happen?viewcode said:
Mark Senior died. Plato (Phillipa IRL) also died. We've had quite a few deaths and long-term illnesses amongst contributors recently, and one of our happy band had his wife die. No matter how good the party is, everybody goes home in the end.peter_from_putney said:Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.
0 -
Mention of Berlusconi reminded me of one of Marf's finesttyson said:Well done Mike- who made this site from his study at Lonsdale Road in Oxford if I recall.
I'm a latecomer- crashing on the site during the 2005 election. My highlight remains the 2006 Italian election- a Monday night when Prodi was interchanging with Berlusconi and the betfair markets were going bananas. PbCOM at it's best.
Good to see the old guard still around too.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/11/page/9/
Congrats to PB on its 15th!0 -
HYUFD said:
Absolutely it is being considered, May will apparently propose it as part of a series of indicative votes alongside her Deal as it is, revoke Article 50, EUref2, No Deal and single market and single market and customs union. The aim being to force the Commons to come to a decision
Makes sense. May will know she has weeks at most left now, and that's going to free her up a bit - some sort of crossparty deal maybe becomes more likely as a result.
Of course, that presumes Corbyn won't just continue refusing everything, hoping for crash no-deal.
0 -
Unlike last time Parliament will no doubt ensure it picks referendum questions which ensure the public delivers the right answer! A remain vs May's deal referendum (no doubt stipulating May must lead the campaign for her deal!) would no doubt result in a clear remain win on a much lower turnout than in 2016 - as large sections of the country would have no option they could vote for.HYUFD said:
Perhaps, but it is all hypothetical anyway as the Commons would only ever allow a Remain v Deal 2nd referendum, it would never vote to allow No Deal on the ballot paperGIN1138 said:
But then you have to think in an actual referendum the remain campaign would be worth at least another 4% for leave...HYUFD said:
Many would go to No Deal but enough would switch to Remain for Remain to win.GIN1138 said:
The question is where would the people who want to leave with a deal (either May's deal or another deal) go if forced to choose between Remain/Revoke and No Deal...CarlottaVance said:
Yougov has it Remain 57% Leave with No Deal 43%
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4zdts/yougov_poll_remain_57_5_no_deal_43_5/
I mean given these are people who think it's actually a good idea to gloat about the number of grannies that have died since 2016...
Image the kind of campaign they'd run in a second go-round.
I think it'd be very close again but certainly wouldn't rule out NO DEAL winning a People's Vote.
Not having a leave with no deal or other option would on some polling by like holding a general election in which the Tories or Labour were not allowed to stand! It would not lance the boil and merely confirm the division for good.
Another wheeze would be to have multiple leave options - thus splitting the leave campaign and votes - and only one remain. Why couldn't we have multiple remain options as well - as remain isn't status quo for ever:
remain - even if we lose our rebate at the next budget round
remain but join Schengen and the Euro
remain but just join Schengen
Full European superstate and EU army now on speed!
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This discussion has been closed.