politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cart

Harris_Tweed said:

Yes. I tend to agree that not tidying this up domestically would be a mistake. All sorts of legal mischief/confusion would present themselves

The Si can't be done until we know the date, which we don't yet.

Article 50 has been extended, by us and the EU.

The extension has 2 fixed dates on it, dependent on the outcome of MV3. Until we have MV3 (or not) the SI can't amend the date...

But whatever happens, we can't lave on the 29th.

Great to see Stuart Dickson has returned from the cooler following his illegal posting of, erm, Caledonian subsamples.

Would be nice to see Tim pop in today - an absolute masterclass poster - if just to say hello.

Are you saying EU created space potentially for MPs to elbow May aside and seek a longer delay, perhaps resulting in no Brexit?

I’m saying they categorically didn’t. The EU set this up in their own interest, pass their WA or clean brexit.

the elbow May aside bit. 🙃🙃🙃May is not alone in her stance. You are elbowing Gove, Leadsome, and all the people in the cabinet, government, party and the country who support either them or Boris and ERG too. That’s going to take memorably bloody bit of elbowing to prevent a Clean brexit.

WA or Clean brexit. Place money on anything else and you are throwing it away.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Baker is completely wrong on this.

Indeed, but it is extra special coming on the heels of his "the wrong Conservatives have their hands on the levers" comment...

Scott_P said:

_Anazina_ said:

Would be nice to see Tim pop in today - an absolute masterclass poster - if just to say hello.

Here in spirit...

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1109343603959173121

Genius.

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1109414848117510146

FF43 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

notme2 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1109378465546027008?s=20

I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.

I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.

For various reasons, I think the parties will want to avoid the UK having its main relationship with the EU through the EEA. But a bespoke arrangement should be possible that includes the Single Market and customs union.

I have to say I think that sounds rather like the cherry picking the EU was dead set against. Particularly as I suspect any British PM negotiating that would still be saying no FoM.

15 years of great headers and BTL comments, not many other websites can say the same!

I'm on the train from suburbia to central London, about three or four people's march types. Fewer than last time, but it's early I guess.

Gardenwalker said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1109397470751191041

The only thing May had to offer was “apres moi, le deluge”.

Then she turned on all the taps, undermined the levies, and punctured the water siloes.

She needs to go as soon as possible.

"What happens in the whips' office stays in the whips' office"? Yeah, right. LOL.

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

Will “fuck business” feature in its reinvigorated policies?

Richard_Tyndall said:

FF43 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

notme2 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1109378465546027008?s=20

I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.

I think the main problem with this us that EFTA membership and a Customs union with the EU are mutually exclusive. I am not sure but I think this is indeed another unicorn.

For various reasons, I think the parties will want to avoid the UK having its main relationship with the EU through the EEA. But a bespoke arrangement should be possible that includes the Single Market and customs union.

I have to say I think that sounds rather like the cherry picking the EU was dead set against. Particularly as I suspect any British PM negotiating that would still be saying no FoM.

It's one of those declensions. You cherry pick. I have red lines.

_Anazina_ said:

Scott_P said:

_Anazina_ said:

Would be nice to see Tim pop in today - an absolute masterclass poster - if just to say hello.

Here in spirit...

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1109343603959173121

Genius.

Tim appears to have more PB friends than when he was on PB

Happy birthday PB! Many thanks to OGH and son, and all the header writers who keep it going.
Has been invaluable over the past few febrile years. Always informative, sometimes infuriating, occasionally eye-opening, never dull.
Thanks to all the contributors too. The full gamut of insightful political opinions available, for the most part respectfully debated...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1109397470751191041

Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to go

You don't actually believe that.

If the Cabinet and PCP decided they wanted her out a way would be found...

Of course she can be removed, indeed it is becoming very probable

Monday?

GIN1138 said:

And the latest famous person would've be well advised to keep quiet award goes to...

https://news.sky.com/story/barbra-streisand-michael-jacksons-alleged-victims-thrilled-to-be-at-neverland-11673163

You’d think she, of all people had heard of “The Streisand effect”!

There's still a 3% return in one week for £3000 and 2% for £27000 on Betfair Exchange, if you are certain that we won't be out of the EU next Friday (which appears to be legally guaranteed, though DYOR). I've staked my Betfair pot (all of £140, so I stand to win...uh...£4).

Sean_F said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_Cooke said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Roger said:

George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious

Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.

Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.

The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.

Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.

The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose?
That one?

Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.

There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.

It does rather illustrate the double-standards on offer.
Leavers love democracy and that's why they don't want another referendum and would have accepted the result if it went against them, while the democracy-hating Remainers signed a petition for another referendum.

A referendum set up by (democracy-loving) Leavers who thought they were going to lose and didn't want to accept the result if it went against them...

Then again, the people who are marching today would not be offering a second referendum if they had won the first, and nor would they be demanding one if Parliament simply revoked A50.

Very true.
If, though, it HAD gone 52-48 the other way, and had the outcome been different to what had been promised (eg if Cameron's renegotiated deal had been resiled from) and there been a swing to Leave, I'd have personally supported another referendum.
(I may be talking my own bias as a previous soft Leaver who swung to reluctant Remain in the campaign, though).

I certainly wouldn't see Leaver calls for another referendum in those circumstances as being undemocratic or revolting, as some Leavers seem to do.

IanB2 said:

4,000,239

13.4m to go then

I'm considering whether to join this party:

https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/

Gallowgate said:

notme2 said:

Gallowgate said:

The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.

Well get your MP to vote for the WA.

No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.

The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!

NickPalmer said:

...and to Marf for enhancing it with her gentle wit. My favourite remains the one with the bankers appreciating taxpayer support during the financial crisis - one saying something like "I really do appreciate taxpayers, though I've never met any."

I like this one



especially since it is hanging on my wall

I don't want to pull a Roger, but I predict the numbers for the march in London will at least equal those marching for Nigel Fucking Farage today

Charles said:

Gallowgate said:

notme2 said:

Gallowgate said:

The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.

Well get your MP to vote for the WA.

No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.

The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!

Nothing is "going to end this thing" what ever happens. The country is split and passions are strong.

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109419531380948994?s=20

viewcode said:

AndyJS said:

I'm considering whether to join this party:

https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/

Rod Liddle has just joined it, I believe. So if you want to be in the same party as Rod Liddle, there is...that.

Yes I read his article in the Spectator the other day.

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.

More people have signed the petition in Edinburgh North & Leith than voted for the local MP at the last general election: 20,147 vs 19,243.

https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584

IanB2 said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.

It depends what you most value as a Conservative. On the one hand, tradition, sovereignty and independence. On the other, the free movement of capital, people and goods. At present, a very large majority of Conservatives favour the former over the latter.

Streeter said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

Will “fuck business” feature in its reinvigorated policies?

I suspect tax dodging law breaking multinational businesses have a similar level of public admiration as our politicians currently do.

IanB2 said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.

That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.

“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword

another_richard said:

Streeter said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

Will “fuck business” feature in its reinvigorated policies?

I suspect tax dodging law breaking multinational businesses have a similar level of public admiration as our politicians currently do.

It's odd that people who decry the Conservatives as mercenary bastards who know the price of everything and the value of nothing then decry them for not championing big corporations.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109419531380948994?s=20

So leaving a clear favourite

Floater said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

Gallowgate said:

notme2 said:

Gallowgate said:

The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.

Well get your MP to vote for the WA.

No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.

The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!

The nutters would continue to bang on (as they will just as unhappily if we leave) but they won't get a hearing from ordinary people after this shitshow.

Millions of ordinary people want Brexit. They are not going to change their minds if it gets revoked.

TBH we are going to be pissed

Every friday night

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.

That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.

“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword

Walking out is not reform.

Just a quick note to say congratulations, Mike, and thanks for facilitating this extraordinary resource for everyone who is (or in my case, was) interested in British politics. I was in the second wave of regular communicants, and I can't believe it was 15 years ago when Book Value, Tabman Steve and the others started to discover how to use this site, which was then the most sociable of all the social media - and may still be for all I know. I still remember the most valuable lesson that this site had to impart - never, ever, bet on something (such as an appointment to or dismissal from the Cabinet) that relies on the decision of one person - you will never have all the information to know why the decision will be made.

dots said:

I have listened to you. I have slept on it. But nothing has changed.

I’m still convinced I’m right. There’s only two options available to Parliament, pass the WA or it’s Clean brexit. Clean brexit isn’t engineered by anybody from here. IT ALREADY HAS BEEN. It’s whether it can be stopped.

Firstly, yes, may be support in parliament for a form of vassalage that could win a majority of votes. But it could never be put to the people for their endorsement as it would fall apart as the vassalage it is in the first week of that ref campaign and soundly defeated by the people.
Secondly times up, A50 was used to negotiate a deal based on red lines not of parliaments choosing but of the Conservative party and its supporters in this country at this time. The A50 time is now gone and it only produced one withdraw agreement.
Thirdly, the indicative vote trash everyone getting distracted by is meaningless unless EU choose to run with the outcome. And the explicit signal from the EU is they are keen on the current WA and failing that, just like the PM, not apparently bothered by clean brexit.

You could make out EU, and May and her cabinet, are lot more keen to avoid Clean Brexit than they are letting on, but if you are convinced of that then you are dangerous.

So Clean Break is still on the table and more potent than ever if people carry on thinking it isn’t.

I see "Clean Break" is being used as a euphemism for no deal breaxit, which is laughable because the one thing it won't be is clean.

But my main point is, if the EU really is prepared for a no-deal exit, why on earth did they allow this extension? It makes no sense at all. There was sitll one week to go to allow MV3 and then it really would have been squeaky-bum time.

THroughout the last 3 years too many people have been claiming that they know what the EU wants to do, and most of it was absolut b*****s

Video of the queues to get into Hyde Park suggest the PV March stands a good chance of beating the 50 marching with Farage. But DYOR

nico67 said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109419531380948994?s=20

So leaving a clear favourite

But only 24% support no deal. So there’s no mandate for a no deal . And the ERG telling everyone Leavers voted for no deal in 2016 is just another lie being peddled by them.

The ERG stance is making things worse and is driving Remainers who were willing to accept and move on into the either just revoke or another EU vote .

Indeed. Take out the DKs, and Revoke is already in the low 40s. Given that a fair chunk of those wanting a new deal and later exit will be supporting a soft Brexit, that's where the consensus is right now.

another_richard said:

Streeter said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

Will “fuck business” feature in its reinvigorated policies?

I suspect tax dodging law breaking multinational businesses have a similar level of public admiration as our politicians currently do.

Other types of businesses are available. Mine for example, but I’m still getting fucked over by the risibly soi-disant party of free enterprise.

Far too many old friends on PB to attempt to list them here, as one is sure to forget a good few, but also a time to remember those who have sadly passed on over the past 15 years.
For me at least, PB.com's Halcyon years were between 2004 - 2010 when the site was good to its name in terms of the betting side of politics, featuring as it then did several brilliant tipsters, a feature which more recently has been all but lost.

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109419531380948994?s=20

So leaving a clear favourite

But only 24% support no deal. So there’s no mandate for a no deal . And the ERG telling everyone Leavers voted for no deal in 2016 is just another lie being peddled by them.

The ERG stance is making things worse and is driving Remainers who were willing to accept and move on into the either just revoke or another EU vote .

Indeed. Take out the DKs, and Revoke is already in the low 40s. Given that a fair chunk of those wanting a new deal and later exit will be supporting a soft Brexit, that's where the consensus is right now.

I’m deeply uncomfortable with revoke and am a staunch Remainer so perhaps I’m less staunch than I first thought !

I would support a second EU vote but at this point I couldn’t support just revoking Article 50 .

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1109386559592296448

If Caroline Flint had been Labour leader in 2015 instead of a different Doncaster MP then Labour would have won.

Possibly.

But with regard to her tweet, she was a Cabinet minister. Why did she do nothing on all these reforms that are needed? She had "real power and influence" for years.

Didn't she say that she was treated like window dressing? It does sound about right that the awfully clever people would completely ignore any warnings from working class MPs.

nico67 said:

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109419531380948994?s=20

So leaving a clear favourite

But only 24% support no deal. So there’s no mandate for a no deal . And the ERG telling everyone Leavers voted for no deal in 2016 is just another lie being peddled by them.

The ERG stance is making things worse and is driving Remainers who were willing to accept and move on into the either just revoke or another EU vote .

Indeed. Take out the DKs, and Revoke is already in the low 40s. Given that a fair chunk of those wanting a new deal and later exit will be supporting a soft Brexit, that's where the consensus is right now.

I’m deeply uncomfortable with revoke and am a staunch Remainer so perhaps I’m less staunch than I first thought !

I would support a second EU vote but at this point I couldn’t support just revoking Article 50 .

Parliament needs to coalesce around whatever Brexit is both achievable and supportable. Then give people the choice between that specific proposition and staying where we are.

Streeter said:

another_richard said:

Streeter said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

Will “fuck business” feature in its reinvigorated policies?

I suspect tax dodging law breaking multinational businesses have a similar level of public admiration as our politicians currently do.

Other types of businesses are available. Mine for example, but I’m still getting fucked over by the risibly soi-disant party of free enterprise.

Well this government certainly likes to add more regulations.

But you'll struggle to find a government which doesn't.

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

IanB2 said:

nico67 said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109419531380948994?s=20

So leaving a clear favourite

But only 24% support no deal. So there’s no mandate for a no deal . And the ERG telling everyone Leavers voted for no deal in 2016 is just another lie being peddled by them.

The ERG stance is making things worse and is driving Remainers who were willing to accept and move on into the either just revoke or another EU vote .

Indeed. Take out the DKs, and Revoke is already in the low 40s. Given that a fair chunk of those wanting a new deal and later exit will be supporting a soft Brexit, that's where the consensus is right now.

I’m deeply uncomfortable with revoke and am a staunch Remainer so perhaps I’m less staunch than I first thought !

I would support a second EU vote but at this point I couldn’t support just revoking Article 50 .

Parliament needs to coalesce around whatever Brexit is both achievable and supportable. Then give people the choice between that specific proposition and staying where we are.

Yes that seems sensible so probably won’t happen !

Scott_P said:

What's that really, really, really loud whining noise?

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1109414086918455296

If he voted with the "Government you voted for" we would have Brexit.

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1109419531380948994?s=20

So leaving a clear favourite

Suddenly you're not a first-past-the-post'er?

eek said:

Charles said:

Gallowgate said:

notme2 said:

Gallowgate said:

The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.

Well get your MP to vote for the WA.

No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.

The one thing that revoke is guaranteed not to do is “end this thing”!

And May’s deal with all negotiations to follow ends things?

It’s a step on the path.

9-12 months after we leave people will be talking about something else

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

JoeJamesBroughton said:

After this mess is fixed, we need to reinvigorate the Conservative Party. It needs to be a party which is in tune with the the Conservative instincts of the backbone of this great Country, not runs scared of the liberal elites in the establishment.(who cocked up Brexit when they should have played hard ball). And, as is already the case, be a party that is is firmly rooted in the domestic agenda to improve people's lives.

The problem is that Brexit isn't actually conservative. Despite what so many party members think.

That’s a misunderstanding of what it means to be conservative.

“Reform that ye may preserve” is the watchword

Walking out is not reform.

It is for this country

We’ve tried to reform the EU but our partners want something different to us. Good luck to them and I hope it works out, but it’s not for us.

We meaning the Conservative party?