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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckoning
Has Britain finally reached a decision point? Still the outcome seems in doubt. Many others are writing about what comes next. But how did we get here?
Comments
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Last0
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1st, unless it is delayed until 23rd May
It appears it is now after last and no longer first.
This is very much like Brexit0 -
Are MPs going to take the matter out of her hands, and if so how? Last week the motion proposed by Hillary Benn to allow Parliament to take control of the process failed by two votes. Will MPs find a way to try again? If they do, will they take that opportunity?
They've already voted on this, so I'm not sure they can do so again.
*innocent face*0 -
FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.0
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Colour me less than shocked that tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
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FPT
Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week
I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG0 -
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
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It never occurred to him that voting against Brexit made Brexit less likely (or a soft Brexit more likely).AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
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The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
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Curse of the new thread:TheValiant said:
Again, I ask why. Again, let's say the Deal is accepted right?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The 12th is the hard deadline
The deal would take us to 22nd May but you cannot revoke post 12th April because we will not have taken part in the EU elections as confirmed by Angela Merkel
So, what position is the UK between 13th April 2019 and 22nd May 2019.
Are we a member state of the EU or not?
If we are, we MUST be able to revoke.
Yes it 'breaks' the EU elections, in which case, if we take the Deal we MUST prepare for them, presumably?0 -
Surely if there's a no confidence vote next week some tories would be tempted to abstain but what kind of psychopath would actually want to be PM right now?0
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Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week
I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG
I am hopelessly lost now.0 -
I dare say the Dupper bigots will be delighted with Remain/Norway+ as Sean F says on the earlier thread. It will allow them to keep their perennial sense of grievance and spout their vitriol while keeping the NI economy afloat.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
May's abject performance before the EU ruled out "No deal" on March 30th... but it could still reappear by April 12th, it isn't completely out the running yet.AlastairMeeks said:
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
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They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
FPT
Amusingly it is legally identical to May's dealbigjohnowls said:I see #CorbynsCustomsUnion is the least disliked outcome.
Also seen as a good outcome by more than Tin Ears Deal Or No Deal
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You, me and the PM.....rottenborough said:
Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week
I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG
I am hopelessly lost now.0 -
FPT
While a delay and soft Brexit might be the only option left it does of course spell huge trouble for the Tory Party as Michael Portillo said on TW last night. The notion the 70% Leave voting activist, membership and voter base will take kindly to a set of Euro elections and a long delay to Brexit is for the birds.
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I think that's right.ralphmalph said:
Yes and if you look at the export destinations for goods in 2017 7.1% went to China and 6.8% went to the UK. Seeing as we are stockpiling at the moment, it can be assumed that we have bought forward demand for German goods. When we reverse this process and if China keeps slowing down I can only see it getting worse for Germany short term. Which also means it gets worse for the countries that supply the German export machine with intra-EU trade.rcs1000 said:
Germany biggest export industry is capital goods, and the slowdown in China is dramatically impacting demandAnorak said:Aaaaany minut now, they'll realise that the EU caving on Brexit is the only thing that will save them. Soon. Very soon...
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1109092601624444928
See https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/
But with a huge caveat. Germany has proposed - for the first time in a decade - an expansionary budget. Spending is increasing, while taxes are being reduced. In total the effect should be about a 1% boost to GDP. (Which is small change compared to President Trump's budget, but is massive for Germany.)
So, all in all, I'd expect that the "core" Germany economy will probably slow from growth of 1.7-1.8% to perhaps just 0.2-0.3%, but this will be largely offset by government spending and tax cuts. My estimate: GDP growth of 1.2-1.3% in 2019.0 -
Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?0
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Will we survive until the end of next week without at least one cabinet resignation? Hard to see how everyone stays on board after MV3 fails.0
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Which is why the ERG should not be making these things happen.Norm said:FPT
While a delay and soft Brexit might be the only option left it does of course spell huge trouble for the Tory Party as Michael Portillo said on TW last night. The notion the 70% Leave voting activist, membership and voter base will take kindly to a set of Euro elections and a long delay to Brexit is for the birds.0 -
It depends whether their leadership prospects would be enhanced or not.PoliticsSchmolitics said:Will we survive until the end of next week without at least one cabinet resignation? Hard to see how everyone stays on board after MV3 fails.
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Out Canvassing tomorrow.
Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix0 -
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IMO the DUP will not be sorry to lose the option of a hard Brexit, especially as there are plenty of others who can take the blame for losing it. Their base is motivated primarily by Irish/sectarian issues and almost all of them want to prevent a hard border in any case. They will not change their votes if hard Brexit, or even Brexit itself, is lost.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...
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More Chief Warden Hodges.......AlastairMeeks said:
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
Pike is already cast......
Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
Private Fraser: Corbyn
Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove0 -
If only there had been some sort of clue...Sean_F said:
It never occurred to him that voting against Brexit made Brexit less likely (or a soft Brexit more likely).AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
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Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?0
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Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.
And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.0 -
I'll be marching tomorrow. There is only one issue on the agenda at the moment.bigjohnowls said:Out Canvassing tomorrow.
Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix0 -
Mr. Palmer, that's an alarming level of nuance from a recent politician
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If that's the case it doesn't sound like fraud at all to me. Incompetence yes.NickPalmer said:Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.
And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.0 -
If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
Whose side is she really on?
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I guess this is not one of the polls where Mr Glenn comments 'the trend is your friend'....Scott_P said:0 -
No I said opinion polls not voodoo pollstpfkar said:
If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
Whose side is she really on?0 -
Unfair! Private Walker generally delivered the nefarious goods he offered.CarlottaVance said:
More Chief Warden Hodges.......AlastairMeeks said:
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
Pike is already cast......
Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
Private Fraser: Corbyn
Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove0 -
PalestineRecidivist said:
I'll be marching tomorrow. There is only one issue on the agenda at the moment.bigjohnowls said:Out Canvassing tomorrow.
Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix
Sincerely yours,
Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
Amazing, the deal petition has gone up at least 13 since I signed it.tpfkar said:
If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
Whose side is she really on?0 -
I think they're split fairly evenly. However the one thing that united them and business etc is that they want an end to uncertainty. May's deal does that as does No Deal (although it's not an option I'd personally want). A long delay, Brexit uncertainty, a new set of Euro elections are anathema to most.Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
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No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
Looks as if it has changed. DUP shooting down MV3 changes it for TMrottenborough said:
Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week
I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG
I am hopelessly lost now.
Why fight a lost cause, do something that unites the house and maybe keeps her as PM0 -
You are correct that no deal is still there but now the HOC are taking over it will be gone soonPulpstar said:
May's abject performance before the EU ruled out "No deal" on March 30th... but it could still reappear by April 12th, it isn't completely out the running yet.AlastairMeeks said:
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
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Agree. Locking up slapdash idiot MPs wouldn't leave many left in fairness.NickPalmer said:Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.
And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.0 -
I cannot see it being put forward now the DUP have shot it downPoliticsSchmolitics said:Will we survive until the end of next week without at least one cabinet resignation? Hard to see how everyone stays on board after MV3 fails.
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Well said.NickPalmer said:Re the last thread, I can't imagine a sentence of a year or more being imposed. His explanation that he was (correctly) told he could split the bill between the two accounts and made up two half-invoices himself instead of asking the photographer to do it properly makes him sound like a slapdash idiot, but not a serious criminal who needs to be locked up.
And yes I know he's a Tory and it'd be an interesting by-election, but fairness and proportionality still matter.0 -
For completeness, SECOND REFERENDUM: 109,924 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235138tpfkar said:
If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
Whose side is she really on?0 -
The long-term trend is your friend.CarlottaVance said:
I guess this is not one of the polls where Mr Glenn comments 'the trend is your friend'....Scott_P said:0 -
This all rather depends on MPs understanding that the WA is not up for renegotiation while the PD is (within reason (I'd put more water in it - ed.))Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if it has changed. DUP shooting down MV3 changes it for TMrottenborough said:
Except it seems from twitter that No. 10 now pouring cold water all over this.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
Greg Clark announced that TM will bring in indicative votes next week
I hope she has finally decided to back the grown ups and abandon the ludicrous ERG
I am hopelessly lost now.
Why fight a lost cause, do something that unites the house and maybe keeps her as PM
I am not overly optimistic.0 -
There's one from Survation (11.01.19) suggesting Conservative voters would prefer May's Deal to No Deal by 50/37. It's Table 35.Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
https://www.survation.com/archive/2019-2/
As far as I can tell, support for No Deal, May's Deal, and Brexit generally runs at 70-75% among Conservative voters, among a range of pollsters.
All but half a dozen Conservative MPs know they've got to deliver some form of Brexit if they want to satisfy their voters.0 -
Revokers struggling to get 5m
Currently 14m short of 17.4m0 -
What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.
It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.0 -
Accidental No Deal remains a real possibility, if the Commons cannot agree anything.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are correct that no deal is still there but now the HOC are taking over it will be gone soonPulpstar said:
May's abject performance before the EU ruled out "No deal" on March 30th... but it could still reappear by April 12th, it isn't completely out the running yet.AlastairMeeks said:
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
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Genuine question.bigjohnowls said:Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?
when the EU say the current deal is the only deal they can offer and only one possible - is that based on TMay's red-lines basis OR is it the case even if Jezza (but actually Starmer) were doing the negotiations? if the latter then this CCU stuff is as pointless as the unicorns and owls isn't it?0 -
But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.Richard_Tyndall said:What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.
It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.0 -
and Godfrey was a war hero!!dixiedean said:
Unfair! Private Walker generally delivered the nefarious goods he offered.CarlottaVance said:
More Chief Warden Hodges.......AlastairMeeks said:
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
Pike is already cast......
Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
Private Fraser: Corbyn
Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove0 -
And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EUanothernick said:
No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
Agree with much of the Header but in one important respect I don't.
I view May's Deal as the platform for a 'softish' Brexit that neither panders to Hard Leavers nor tramples roughshod over Remainers.
The only legally binding part of the Deal is the WA, which via the Backstop steers to a closely aligned Future Relationship.
This displeases Hard Leavers, being less than a clean break, and it displeases Hard Remainers, being less than staying in the EU.
It is, in other words, just the sort of compromise that one would have hoped and expected the government to have negotiated.0 -
393k for LeaveIshmael_Z said:
For completeness, SECOND REFERENDUM: 109,924 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/235138tpfkar said:
If you'll accept petition signatures, current totals are:Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
REVOKE A50: 3,360,250 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
LEAVE WITH NO DEAL: 392,966 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
DEAL: 62 (yes you read that right) https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/233104
Whose side is she really on?
3.5m for Remain
Old buggers dont have Computers!!!0 -
As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:
https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb640 -
No Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
Only remainers want another go...
https://twitter.com/ConorBurnsUK/status/1109129647265062912
OH, hang on a minute:
The question of a second referendum was raised by Mr Farage in an interview with the Mirror in which he said: "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-363066810 -
No because the WA is unaffected just that a #CCU that we know the EU will accept is added to PDScrapheap_as_was said:
Genuine question.bigjohnowls said:Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?
when the EU say the current deal is the only deal they can offer and only one possible - is that based on TMay's red-lines basis OR is it the case even if Jezza (but actually Starmer) were doing the negotiations? if the latter then this CCU stuff is as pointless as the unicorns and owls isn't it?0 -
That we need to zig-a-zig-a?AlastairMeeks said:As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:
https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb640 -
Sean_F said:
There's one from Survation (11.01.19) suggesting Conservative voters would prefer May's Deal to No Deal by 50/37. It's Table 35.Philip_Thompson said:Do opinion polls suggest more Conservative voters want May's deal or No deal?
https://www.survation.com/archive/2019-2/
As far as I can tell, support for No Deal, May's Deal, and Brexit generally runs at 70-75% among Conservative voters, among a range of pollsters.
All but half a dozen Conservative MPs know they've got to deliver some form of Brexit if they want to satisfy their voters.
Following on, here you have support for Brexit among Conservatives ranging from 70% for May's Deal, to 72% for No Deal, to 74% to Brexit in general.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/26b2mrd7yn/PeoplesVote_March19th_SnapPoll_final_updated_w.pdf
Provisionally, I'd conclude that Conservative voters are fairly relaxed about the form that Brexit takes, so long as it takes place.0 -
As the Spice Girls sang: “Now don’t go wasting my precious time/Get your act together we could be just fine”.Slackbladder said:
That we need to zig-a-zig-a?AlastairMeeks said:As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:
https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb640 -
That is indeed the song he references, though he doesn't ask us to tell him what we want, what we really really want.Slackbladder said:
That we need to zig-a-zig-a?AlastairMeeks said:As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:
https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb640 -
Leavers are less likely to be online of course, so it's not a level playing field.bigjohnowls said:Revokers struggling to get 5m
Currently 14m short of 17.4m0 -
Sounds like a big anti-terrorist operation in Germany has been going down today,
https://www.fnp.de/frankfurt/frankfurt-hessen-sek-einsatz-nied-heusingerstrasse-zr-11876564.html0 -
The U boat captain taking down names for later retribution after final victory could be any number of Brexitloons. Just for his prickly humorlessness and laffs, I'll go for Hannan.dixiedean said:
Unfair! Private Walker generally delivered the nefarious goods he offered.CarlottaVance said:
More Chief Warden Hodges.......AlastairMeeks said:
He does have the air of Captain Mainwaring about him.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Colour me less than shocked than tactical genius Mark Francois has ballsed it. That (Territorial) Army training was wasted.Sean_F said:FPT, the ERG have blown the hardest Brexit that was on offer, so now they'll be getting something less desirable from their point of view.
Pike is already cast......
Captain Mainwaring: Mrs May - those leadership & communication skills....
Lance Corporal Jones: The BDS Crew (Grayling/Adonis/Grieve/Soubry)
Sergeant Wilson: Ken Clarke
Private Walker: David Davis/Boris
Private Godfrey: Chris Grayling
Private Fraser: Corbyn
Rev Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon): Letwin
Maurice Yeatman (Verger): Gove0 -
Which completely undermines everything you said in your article. Are you sure you don't have a split personality?AlastairMeeks said:
But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.Richard_Tyndall said:What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.
It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.0 -
The red lines primarily effect the PD, not the WA which is about settling debts and the backstop - which is a function of the red lines. So loosening of the PD would delight the EU - and depending on how loose, may substantially reduce the need for or eliminate the backstop.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Genuine question.bigjohnowls said:Is this the #CorbynsCustomsUnion thread?
when the EU say the current deal is the only deal they can offer and only one possible - is that based on TMay's red-lines basis OR is it the case even if Jezza (but actually Starmer) were doing the negotiations? if the latter then this CCU stuff is as pointless as the unicorns and owls isn't it?0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, stop right now, thank you very much.
[As an aside, Ginger Spice is now married to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner].0 -
To be honest i'd rather 'slam my body down and wind it all around'....AlastairMeeks said:
That is indeed the song he references, though he doesn't ask us to tell him what we want, what we really really want.Slackbladder said:
That we need to zig-a-zig-a?AlastairMeeks said:As Brexit gets more surreal, the former Italian Prime Minister has quoted the Spice Girls in support of his argument that Britain needs to rethink:
https://www.ft.com/content/bff3e90a-4c8f-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb640 -
We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EUanothernick said:
No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
Shome mistake surely? I thought Leavers spent all day looking at Russian-funded FB ads for No Deal?AndyJS said:
Leavers are less likely to be online of course, so it's not a level playing field.bigjohnowls said:Revokers struggling to get 5m
Currently 14m short of 17.4m0 -
It is the winners' responsibility to establish a consensus. You cannot expect the losers to set the parameters for that or work towards it until the winners see the need for it. They still don't.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which completely undermines everything you said in your article. Are you sure you don't have a split personality?AlastairMeeks said:
But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.Richard_Tyndall said:What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.
It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.0 -
And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU electionsanothernick said:
We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EUanothernick said:
No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
This is certainly true now but in the immediate aftermath of the referendum things were different. At that stage few remainers thought the decision could be reversed and I think an attempt by May to seek consensus would have been likely to have borne fruit. But that would have involved her dumping the ERG and risking a split in the Tory Party and, as we know, her instinct has always been to put party before country.AlastairMeeks said:
But Richard, it is your problem not Remainers'. Remainers don't have any interest in seeing Brexit work.Richard_Tyndall said:What is so frustrating is that there are some of us on the Leave side who proposed exactly what Alastair is talking about within a day or so of the referendum. But of course we have no power and no political ambition so were never going to be listened to.
It is also worth pointing out that some Remainers' answer to the suggestion that we should treat this as a cross party/cross opinion issue was to say stuff that this will be your problem not ours. Which is hardly on keeping with the sort of reconciliation that Alastair talks about.0 -
Which flavour of terrorist is it, Pepe or Achmed ?FrancisUrquhart said:Sounds like a big anti-terrorist operation in Germany has been going down today,
https://www.fnp.de/frankfurt/frankfurt-hessen-sek-einsatz-nied-heusingerstrasse-zr-11876564.html0 -
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109103457103945728
And who can blame them.
She's had a chance. MPs need to seize this now, and ignore her. In office but not in power.0 -
If I were the EU hierarchy, I would be channelling Laocoön: Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes. The idea of a cohort of British MEPs creating havoc in the European Parliament would appal me.anothernick said:
We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EUanothernick said:
No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
7 flavours of Brexit !
0 -
Could be rushed through in 24 hours, all the systems needed are there, it has even been rumoured that the Electoral Commission has started planning. Elections can be run very speedily in the UK - before FTPA the formal timetable for a general election could be less than 3 weeks. In Feb 1974 polling day was exactly 3 weeks after the announcement of the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU electionsanothernick said:
We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EUanothernick said:
No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
democracy is messy, deal with it.AlastairMeeks said:
If I were the EU hierarchy, I would be channelling Laocoön: Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes. The idea of a cohort of British MEPs creating havoc in the European Parliament would appal me.anothernick said:
We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EUanothernick said:
No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
Geri Halliwell looks far, far better now than she did then. She is like a fine wine – she gets better with age.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, stop right now, thank you very much.
[As an aside, Ginger Spice is now married to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner].0 -
If MPs want anything other than the May Deal or No Deal they will have to replace her with a new PM who is both willing and able to negotiate a Brexit that looks suspiciously like Labour's policy. That can logically only be Jeremy Corbyn. And therefore I can't see it. I can only see 2 outcomes.Sean_F said:Accidental No Deal remains a real possibility, if the Commons cannot agree anything.
(i) No deal exit on 12/4.
(ii) Exit on 22/5 via the WA only (with the PD put on ice pending further talks).
And either way, a new Tory leader and a GE in the summer.0 -
Off topic: Railway chaos in Manchester this afternoon. At least I'm now on the move, and unlike plenty of folk on this TPExpress service I have a seat.0
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Will there be a legal action available if we're denied MEPs and we're still in the EU during the time ?
I'd like a representation on stuff like Article 13 ta very much if we're in the club.0 -
Needs majority for it in the HOC. ERG would do everything to sabotage itanothernick said:
Could be rushed through in 24 hours, all the systems needed are there, it has even been rumoured that the Electoral Commission has started planning. Elections can be run very speedily in the UK - before FTPA the formal timetable for a general election could be less than 3 weeks. In Feb 1974 polling day was exactly 3 weeks after the announcement of the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU electionsanothernick said:
We will take part in the election. The 12 April decision will be to extend on the conditions the EU has set, including participation in the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how do we do this with no MEPs. Without MEPs we cannot be in the EUanothernick said:
No, I think that's the likeliest outcome now. May and/or the government will collapse before 12 April, the Commons will vote to accept the EU's proffered longer extension and the EU will agree in the hope that within 9 months the UK will have come up with a coherent way forward. Which will have to involve a general election or referendum or perhaps both.Recidivist said:
They aren't going to get any Brexit.Scott_P said:The ERG are throwing their toys out of the pram.
The DUP are crying No Surrender.
They have both shot their bolt. The best Brexit they can now get is one neither of them wanted.
No flowers...0 -
+1 If it is wrecked I'm strongly for revoke.kinabalu said:Agree with much of the Header but in one important respect I don't.
I view May's Deal as the platform for a 'softish' Brexit that neither panders to Hard Leavers nor tramples roughshod over Remainers.
The only legally binding part of the Deal is the WA, which via the Backstop steers to a closely aligned Future Relationship.
This displeases Hard Leavers, being less than a clean break, and it displeases Hard Remainers, being less than staying in the EU.
It is, in other words, just the sort of compromise that one would have hoped and expected the government to have negotiated.0 -
Apparently passed in 2002 if I am reading this rightBig_G_NorthWales said:And where is the enabling bill to take part in the EU elections
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/11091360967708835860 -
.0
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Failing Grayling again?SandyRentool said:Off topic: Railway chaos in Manchester this afternoon. At least I'm now on the move, and unlike plenty of folk on this TPExpress service I have a seat.
0 -
No prizes for guessing what our CLP had a motion on last month. Special prize for guessing the previous month's topic...Philip_Thompson said:
PalestineRecidivist said:
I'll be marching tomorrow. There is only one issue on the agenda at the moment.bigjohnowls said:Out Canvassing tomorrow.
Its a bad time BREXIT and Local Elections don't mix
Sincerely yours,
Jeremy Corbyn.0
