politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the p

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

As far as I can tell, there is only one poll that puts No Deal against Revoke, from Survation, in December. Helpfully, it's 49% to 51%.

Landslide! Will of the People

The latest Survation poll also has 47% Leave, 53% Remain, so it's an almost perfect match.

However, Matthew Goodwin reports a poll from Opinium showing 46% support No Deal, as opposed to 39% who support a delay to Brexit.

O/T

I misread this as "a gammon bias" the first time I saw it, but in fact it's the precise opposite.

https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1107938899677057024

Cicero said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

1000000+ on the petition.

16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

1000000+ on the petition.

16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.

Yes "just a petition", but I think it would be incredibly stupid not to recognize that opinion has shifted and may well shift still further against Brexit. A second referendum would probably crush leave.

So Leavers should be very careful. At the current rate, and despite the site collapsing under the weight of demand there are millions of people who are very, very angry and concerned. I suspect that the demonstration on Saturday could be one of the biggest ever seen in London, maybe even THE biggest... sure "its only a demonstration", but if so many people feel that they were simply ignored by the Conservatives, then the hatred dished out to May will make the loathing of Tony Blair look like a storm in a tea cup.

There is a backlash coming against the Party that has taken us to the brink of the precipice. If Tories are seeing what I'm seeing on the doorsteps then they must be white with fear. I'm getting lifetime Tories who can barely speak their name without rage.

How cute.

TrèsDifficile said:

How pleased will the revokers be if their petition reaches 100 million signatures?

They would be eagerly anticipating it getting to 101.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

El_Capitano said:

What could this mean? Government of National Unity?

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1108748072744636416

Looks like it.

I'm surprised this hasn't been considered sooner.

I have been saying for weeks that it's time to embrace the gnu.

AndyJS said:

O/T

I misread this as "a gammon bias" the first time I saw it, but in fact it's the precise opposite.

https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1107938899677057024

In an odd way, it's a very mid-Victorian attitude.

MarqueeMark said:

TrèsDifficile said:

How pleased will the revokers be if their petition reaches 100 million signatures?

They will be delighted at the solidarity from North Korea and Western Sahara......

The petitions are a little bit cleverer than that - you can see the results broken down into constituencies on a map of the UK.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1108760536622252032

Retrait? Ceci n'est pas un retrait. C'est un avance triomphale!

Mr. JS, I remember reading something similar some years ago. I think it was called the Women Are Wonderful effect.

It's a combination of prejudice, statistical innumeracy, and fashionable idiocy.

Another facet is that woe that disproportionately affects women gets gendered (even with stuff like "Climate change affects women more") whereas woe that affects mostly men does not (homelessness [90%] and suicide [75%] being prime examples, although the latter has had some attention lately).

Men are often estimated to be 35-45% of domestic abuse victims but the funding for refuges for them is far lower, relatively, than for women.

Society today, despite its flaws, is perhaps the most equal and fair it's ever been, yet some bleat about the patriarchy as if it's the 12th century. That not only ignores anti-male bigotry and mostly male problems (I was amused when numpty Clegg whined about the number of women in prison when there are more than 20 men incarcerated for every 1 woman), it also fetishises victimhood, as if women are subject to far more sexism than they are (it still exists but to a much lesser degree than in the past and with significant legal safeguards).

/endramble

ExiledInScotland said:

eek said:

ExiledInScotland said:

148grss said:

https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584

I do find this map very interesting; some constituencies have upto 5% signing the petition, which isn't too bad.

University towns. Snowflakes, Woke Remoaners. Actually "The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

Keep referencing an old survey about a different petition if it makes you feel happier...

Apologies - I thought it was relevant. I accept that the current petition is gaining signatures fast. I wonder whether the geographic split will be similar?

He's commented on the new petition too:

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1108701393836302336

TrèsDifficile said:

logical_song said:

MarqueeMark said:

TrèsDifficile said:

How pleased will the revokers be if their petition reaches 100 million signatures?

They will be delighted at the solidarity from North Korea and Western Sahara......

The petitions are a little bit cleverer than that - you can see the results broken down into constituencies on a map of the UK.

It also lists, in the .json file linked on the petition page, all of the locations outside of the UK where it has been 'signed' and the numbers of signatories in each country. France had a greater total (c9000) than any UK constituency the last time I looked.

That's logical given that more British people live in France than in any single constituency and they have a direct stake in the outcome of Brexit.

Philip_Thompson said:

199 hours to go to a possible clean Brexit.

"Clean"

Mr Glenn,

"That's logical."

Especially as many they weren't allowed to vote in the original referendum. Perhaps they could make it past 17.4 million with a bit more encouragement?

RobD said:

ExiledInScotland said:

eek said:

ExiledInScotland said:

148grss said:

https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584

I do find this map very interesting; some constituencies have upto 5% signing the petition, which isn't too bad.

University towns. Snowflakes, Woke Remoaners. Actually "The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

Keep referencing an old survey about a different petition if it makes you feel happier...

Apologies - I thought it was relevant. I accept that the current petition is gaining signatures fast. I wonder whether the geographic split will be similar?

He's commented on the new petition too:

https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1108701393836302336

Yes, my eye of the beholder did not fool. The Labour seat trend line sits below the Tory seat trend line (lower participation in politics) and at the top end, as the graph scatters, a lot of SNP seats well below the trend line (ex-Labour seatss plus, stuff it, independence it is then?)

Currently cringing at Kay Burleys 'how did you get to be such an amazing lover' interview with the French ambassador on Sky

'Why is French food so much better than any other in Europe?' Lmfao

TrèsDifficile said:

williamglenn said:

TrèsDifficile said:

logical_song said:

MarqueeMark said:

TrèsDifficile said:

How pleased will the revokers be if their petition reaches 100 million signatures?

They will be delighted at the solidarity from North Korea and Western Sahara......

The petitions are a little bit cleverer than that - you can see the results broken down into constituencies on a map of the UK.

It also lists, in the .json file linked on the petition page, all of the locations outside of the UK where it has been 'signed' and the numbers of signatories in each country. France had a greater total (c9000) than any UK constituency the last time I looked.

That's logical given that more British people live in France than in any single constituency and they have a direct stake in the outcome of Brexit.

The total number of UK citizens living in France is about 150k. What's the population of Islington South and Finsbury, where the signatory count is 4,500?

The electorate of Islington South and Finsbury is 67,613.

Philip_Thompson said:

199 hours to go to a possible clean Brexit.

TBH they've never managed to beat "Mozart's House".

.....oh, you said Clean Brexit.

OT. TIL, between 1908 and 1938 we halved the number of prisoners in this country.
Not sure what this proves, but was surprising. No one set out any kind of plan to do so.

"Petitions is down for maintenance
We know about it and we're working on it.

Please try again later."

https://petition.parliament.uk

TOPPING said:

Endillion said:

Off topic, but there seem to be a number of (other) gamers on here, and I thought this was fascinating:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/top_scores_video_game_music

On topic, Sterling taking a bath again.

Range bound 1.30-1.33. Deal is upside to 1.45-1.48. Downside? Pick your number.

Ive seen projections of 1.15 USD and 1EUR. Although that might have been internet bollocks. I wish I could remember where I saw it...

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

Who gives a f what date they agree. The WA aint passing next week.

DougSeal said:

Philip_Thompson said:

199 hours to go to a possible clean Brexit.

"Clean"

You had sixteen pints and a curry, hit your girlfriend, she left you, you repeatedly shat the bed, but hey, you had a shower, closed the bedroom door after some air freshener, and are sitting in the peace watching the footy.

CLEEEEEAAN

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

As far as I can tell, there is only one poll that puts No Deal against Revoke, from Survation, in December. Helpfully, it's 49% to 51%.

Landslide! Will of the People

The latest Survation poll also has 47% Leave, 53% Remain, so it's an almost perfect match.

However, Matthew Goodwin reports a poll from Opinium showing 46% support No Deal, as opposed to 39% who support a delay to Brexit.

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1108760249631211520?s=21

Those are very worrying - no deal growing

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

Who gives a f what date they agree. The WA aint passing next week.

This is helpful information for people voting in the Commons though.

If you’re a Labour MP in a leave area worried about no deal but you don’t want to vote for the deal then doesn’t the current impasse give you the chance to support the Kyle/Wilson amendment .

You stop no deal and ask for the public to ratify the deal .

kjh said:

Philip_Thompson said:

199 hours to go to a possible clean Brexit.

Depends what you mean by clean. Can you tell me what my carnet requirements are in April or do I just stop working? Academic actually as I have stopped working anyway, but the Govt doesn't know that and nobody has told me what to do. I guess the info is out there and it may be my lack of current need, but the comments by Govt that they have contacted businesses is tosh. As far as the Govt is concerned my company is still active with up to date Companies house, Corporation tax and Vat returns. I have received zippo info.

I would hope active companies would be a little more proactive tbh.

kjh said:

TrèsDifficile said:

williamglenn said:

TrèsDifficile said:

logical_song said:

MarqueeMark said:

TrèsDifficile said:

How pleased will the revokers be if their petition reaches 100 million signatures?

They will be delighted at the solidarity from North Korea and Western Sahara......

The petitions are a little bit cleverer than that - you can see the results broken down into constituencies on a map of the UK.

It also lists, in the .json file linked on the petition page, all of the locations outside of the UK where it has been 'signed' and the numbers of signatories in each country. France had a greater total (c9000) than any UK constituency the last time I looked.

That's logical given that more British people live in France than in any single constituency and they have a direct stake in the outcome of Brexit.

The total number of UK citizens living in France is about 150k. What's the population of Islington South and Finsbury, where the signatory count is 4,500?

I think the British residents in France might just be a little more concerned about Brexit don't you?

How many of them have lived outside the UK for 15 years plus? They don't get a vote

TrèsDifficile said:

kjh said:

TrèsDifficile said:

williamglenn said:

TrèsDifficile said:

logical_song said:

MarqueeMark said:

TrèsDifficile said:

How pleased will the revokers be if their petition reaches 100 million signatures?

They will be delighted at the solidarity from North Korea and Western Sahara......

The petitions are a little bit cleverer than that - you can see the results broken down into constituencies on a map of the UK.

It also lists, in the .json file linked on the petition page, all of the locations outside of the UK where it has been 'signed' and the numbers of signatories in each country. France had a greater total (c9000) than any UK constituency the last time I looked.

That's logical given that more British people live in France than in any single constituency and they have a direct stake in the outcome of Brexit.

The total number of UK citizens living in France is about 150k. What's the population of Islington South and Finsbury, where the signatory count is 4,500?

I think the British residents in France might just be a little more concerned about Brexit don't you?

How many of them have lived outside the UK for 15 years plus? They don't get a vote

The franchise for any second referendum would be decided by legislation. Perhaps we should give them a vote.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, Miss JGP.

Mr. Dean, what happened to the general demography of the nation over that period? I imagine WWI and the Spanish flu had a statistically significant impact upon the number of young men (the main demographic that ends up in prison).

I do not know. Fair point, but it would not have halved the number. On the other side, many would have come back traumatised, and there was also the worst depression in modern times, which logic would suggest may lead to more crimes.
So, no idea.

Mr. Glenn, changing the franchise from the last referendum to the next would be a fantastic way to make the result even more contentious and politics more fractious.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

As far as I can tell, there is only one poll that puts No Deal against Revoke, from Survation, in December. Helpfully, it's 49% to 51%.

Landslide! Will of the People

The latest Survation poll also has 47% Leave, 53% Remain, so it's an almost perfect match.

However, Matthew Goodwin reports a poll from Opinium showing 46% support No Deal, as opposed to 39% who support a delay to Brexit.

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1108760249631211520?s=21

Those are very worrying - no deal growing

Collective insanity in evidence. The stupidity of the crowd

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Glenn, changing the franchise from the last referendum to the next would be a fantastic way to make the result even more contentious and politics more fractious.

If Brexit is not about blood and soil nationalism, why not give EU citizens resident in the UK a vote? Brexit campaigners could try to appeal to them with their visions of the Brexit sunlit uplands.

Big news in the @Pulpstar household, my other half has signed the revocation petition.

Pulpstar said:

Big news in the @Pulpstar household, my other half has signed the revocation petition.

Is she a bot? or are you feeling peer presurre?

RobC said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

Who gives a f what date they agree. The WA aint passing next week.

Well perhaps it should. I voted remain but I can't see the point of precipitating a no deal. More remainer MPs need to follow the lead of Tissue Price's adversary in 2017 in Don Valley Caroline Flint and back the Deal not out of love of the Tories or the Deal but because No Deal is a very bad idea that will cause significant and unnecessary disruption to their constituents lives.

Caroline Flint hasn't backed the deal.

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Big news in the @Pulpstar household, my other half has signed the revocation petition.

Is she a bot? or are you feeling peer presurre?

I've backed the petition to pass May's deal, we're up to 52 signatures but the petitiuon has now crashed !

Pro_Rata said:

Pulpstar said:

Big news in the @Pulpstar household, my other half has signed the revocation petition.

It's not mutually exclusive with also hoping the deal gets passed, you know.

Sure, I might consider signing it after the MV has failed.

Tissue_Price said:

dixiedean said:

RobC said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

Who gives a f what date they agree. The WA aint passing next week.

Well perhaps it should. I voted remain but I can't see the point of precipitating a no deal. More remainer MPs need to follow the lead of Tissue Price's adversary in 2017 in Don Valley Caroline Flint and back the Deal not out of love of the Tories or the Deal but because No Deal is a very bad idea that will cause significant and unnecessary disruption to their constituents lives.

Caroline Flint hasn't backed the deal.

https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1108684142143852544

And she voted for the deal last week too.

Though she also voted for the Spelman amendment to take No Deal "off the table" forever.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

Sean_F said:

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

As far as I can tell, there is only one poll that puts No Deal against Revoke, from Survation, in December. Helpfully, it's 49% to 51%.

Landslide! Will of the People

The latest Survation poll also has 47% Leave, 53% Remain, so it's an almost perfect match.

However, Matthew Goodwin reports a poll from Opinium showing 46% support No Deal, as opposed to 39% who support a delay to Brexit.

https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1108760249631211520?s=21

Those are very worrying - no deal growing

Collective insanity in evidence. The stupidity of the crowd

I think it’s a case of some just being fed up and wanting it to end . The issue with the poll is just two choices . The Ipsos Mori shows more support a delay. Much depends on how you word these things .

Mr. Dean, that's a good point.

Mr. Glenn, giving citizens of other EU countries a say on whether the UK can leave or not is nuts, and would only make a result more open to dispute. Rather suspecting you're being a tinker on purpose, you naughty sausage.

logical_song said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

Who gives a f what date they agree. The WA aint passing next week.

OK, so TMay resigns and her Deal is dust. That might make it easier to break the logjam.

I dont think she will resign. She will press on, believing only she can handle the No Deal chaos.

Get rid. VNOC or Cabinet and men in suits urgently needed. She has become deluded.

nico67 said:

If you’re a Labour MP in a leave area worried about no deal but you don’t want to vote for the deal then doesn’t the current impasse give you the chance to support the Kyle/Wilson amendment .

You stop no deal and ask for the public to ratify the deal .

And where do you get the time for that?

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

Does Dictator May have the final say as to whether we intend to hold European Elections in May, or would that decision have to come from Parliament?

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Big news in the @Pulpstar household, my other half has signed the revocation petition.

Is she a bot? or are you feeling peer presurre?

I've backed the petition to pass May's deal, we're up to 52 signatures but the petitiuon has now crashed !

I was 58, and it crashed at 59

Philip_Thompson said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rottenborough said:

eristdoof said:

El_Capitano said:

philiph said:

Andrew said:

eristdoof said:

Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.

Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.

Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.

At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".

Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?

I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.

If May refuses to resign how can Her Majesty be persuaded? That seems to be a bit of a legal grey area.

Presumably someone else can propose a vote of confidence in an alternative administration before then?

That's what seems to be confusing. The law says 'an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". '

So its not a vote of confidence in a potential alternative administration but in the Government. If May doesn't resign and suggest that Her Majesty calls Corbyn [for example] I don't see how the issue gets forced? The Act doesn't really address that point.

Yet more reasons why the FTPA is a disaster. Another fine mess from Cameron.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Brief trumpet blow.

This is my 20,000th post!

Time well spent hopefully.

Well done. It is a milestone

Cheers Big_G.

Good to see you posting again. Hope family is coping with recent events.

Pulpstar said:

Big news in the @Pulpstar household, my other half has signed the revocation petition.

Following your lead?

She is not really a contender, but even so, these are terrible numbers for Gillibrand:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/435119-poll-gillibrand-de-blasio-have-favorable-ratings-under-30-percent-among-new

(And rather good for Biden.)

dixiedean said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dixiedean said:

OT. TIL, between 1908 and 1938 we halved the number of prisoners in this country.
Not sure what this proves, but was surprising. No one set out any kind of plan to do so.

Source?

Ishmael_Z said:

dixiedean said:

OT. TIL, between 1908 and 1938 we halved the number of prisoners in this country.
Not sure what this proves, but was surprising. No one set out any kind of plan to do so.

Source?

A professor of criminology speaking on R5L this afternoon. He was governor of Wormwood Scrubs. No reason to doubt him.

This chap https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Wilson_(criminologist)

RobC said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

Who gives a f what date they agree. The WA aint passing next week.

Well perhaps it should. I voted remain but I can't see the point of precipitating a no deal. More remainer MPs need to follow the lead of Tissue Price's adversary in 2017 in Don Valley Caroline Flint and back the Deal not out of love of the Tories or the Deal but because No Deal is a very bad idea that will cause significant and unnecessary disruption to their constituents lives.

I should have thought that this soft(ish) exit provides, depending on where one sits, either (a) a platform from which it’s relatively easy to rejoin the EU if (if!) Brexit is suboptimal; or (b) the first step on a straightforward journey to disentangle oneself from a sclerotic and undemocratic blob.

There’s disdain of Trump in the U.K. (and rightly so) but MPs seem to have adopted, without reservation, his simpleminded view of negotiating as a zero sum, binary game.