Who is going to make the TV broadcast on evening of 29th, announcing formally that we have failed to reach a deal and therefore we are leaving without a deal in a few hours time?
I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.
Boris will seize his destiny and get his Churchill moment?
Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?
They are, but it was tactless to say so.
It might have been received better from someone without their own shitheadery problem.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
The Cabinet can stop her.
Are you being serious?
The PM is first amongst equals under our system. She can be stopped if there is the will. There isn't of course.
Stopped how? And do what instead, with whose votes?
I miss the Tory men in grey suits.
Yes, this reckless experiment of giving party members a say in things has turned out to be a disaster, for both main parties.
My guess is May would've ended up PM under the old system, once Gove had taken himself and Boris out. And Cameron was a significantly better pick than Davis would've been.
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
The issue has always been what sort of "victory" No Deal delivers.....
No, the overwhelming line here until last week was overwhelmingly that ERGers were going to result in No Brexit.
It's certainly what I expected.
The one guarantee so far from all this is that what we expect and what happens can be wildly divergent.
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
Don't forget the joys of the constitution. The Prime Minister needs not be the leader of the largest party. Nor an MP. If we're at constitutional coup d'etat stage you need to think a little wider than who in the cabinet will be the next temporary leader of the Tory Party.
Once the powers that be decide May has to be removed the future of the party won't be the consideration. Just the fact that its legal (which means the Crown has to give authority. And by "the crown" it doesn't mean Brenda, just her authority.
So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
Treason next Friday then. I honestly can't see a way out now. May is completely out of control.
So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.
Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.
So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...
If ones sole concern is a Corbyn led Gov't then he's played a blinder.
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
We could have a new PM in time for tea if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign in favour of a senior Cabinet minister. There need be no contested election if the succession is stitched up beforehand, as it will be.
The handover of PM takes less than an hour, and there must be a PM even if it is only a caretaker PM. What is doubtful about your proposition is the "if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign". I personally cannot see anything that will make her agree to resign until the outcome of the next 8 days is finalised. Not even an Edwina Curry type of secret being made public.
Hammond resigning might do it.
Gauke and Rudd are minor details. But a Chex going is always massive news.
Unfortunately Hammond has all the dynamism of a squid, but you never know, even squid can be made palatable if you salt them and add chilli.
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
As I have pointed out before, this is not "LGBT rights" teaching. It is part of the "British values" programme, not PSHE. It is an anti-bullying section as part of the tolerance unit. It merely suggests that non-straight people are one of the groups, amongst a great number, it is wrong to bully. This is Section 28 returning in a curious alliance of religious fundamentalists and "parental rights" social conservatives.
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.
Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.
What percentage of the people filling this petition are likely to be out this weekend at the planned marches? If the petition gets to a million by end of afternoon I can imagine we're likely to see at least 25% of that in London Saturday.
So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...
In those two posts folks you have it spot on
I have given up on each and everyone of them.
I hope the EU stops this charade on the spot and refuses an extension or makes it only dependent on the deal passing
I have had enough as has most everyone - there is a life going on out there away from the asylum that is the HOC
Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
So. We no deal. May goes. Boris inherits the scorched remains and governs like he’s appearing in an 80s dystopian future movie. Snake Pliskin arrives in the UK.
A totally uninformed suggestion: could May & Corbyn negotiate a post-Brexit GE [with the future political relationship to be part of the manifesto process] as the price for Labour officially supporting or abstaining on the WA?
What would be the mechanism for enforcement? Presumably a leadership change for the Tories would be part of the process too - so set a date in September for the GE. Maybe a leadership change for Labour too.
Could TM get this past her own Cabinet/party? Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
This rather makes a nonsense of some of the claims below... "when asked who would be to blame for a no-deal Brexit, the public are most likely to say the government and Tory MPs...."
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
So. We no deal. May goes. Boris inherits the scorched remains and governs like he’s appearing in an 80s dystopian future movie. Snake Pliskin arrives in the UK.
Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
The Guardianista Thomas the Tank Engine is racist types must be in a terrible bind....
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
The Guardianista Thomas the Tank Engine is racist types must be in a terrible bind....
Nope - they will ignore this and go after christian women who use the wrong pro noun
Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.
Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.
If May refuses to resign how can Her Majesty be persuaded? That seems to be a bit of a legal grey area.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
What victory?
I know the headbangers think a scorched Earth No Deal will see them lauded as liberators and feted for 1000 years.
I am less sure that the medicine queues and food riots will be chanting their names in praise...
Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
You’d need 90 Labour MPs plus 180 Tories plus TIGers plus LDs plus SNP to back someone like Liddington or Hilary Benn via a written agreement for 3 months or so with a guaranteed election at the end.
Mass casualties at the end.
I'd have thought 180 Labour to 90 Tories would be more probable.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?
People called the police when KFC ran out of chicken.
Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?
I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.
If May refuses to resign how can Her Majesty be persuaded? That seems to be a bit of a legal grey area.
Presumably someone else can propose a vote of confidence in an alternative administration before then?
So so predictable. So predictable that I predicted you would do it down thread.
Did you? Must have missed it.
I normally skip straight over your posts.
Any reason you have to be so rude? I was trying to be quite nice to you last night and conciliatory in trying to explain to you why people are baiting you over the numbers thing (but don't when you make other rational posts). If you go back and look at the threads after you left last night there was some gentle humour at your expense on counting numbers (not by me). You seem very touchy about this. I don't know why. Your arguments are usually rational, but just the other day, pretty well unprompted, you commented that these marches 'boil your piss'. That isn't a rational response. Neither is your one sided view on the numbers. Of course there will be illegitimate numbers in the petition. of course nobody knows the numbers at the march. None of it really matters. Only the ball park is important. But it really, really mattters to you. Try not to be rude. I won't be rude to you.
You’ve been very rude to me.
If you don’t want it back then don’t belittle or patronise me.
I'm still not convinced how and indeed if MV3 gets to the Commons next week. I assume May is hoping those intent on voting against will be harangued by worried Council candidates and terrified Mail-carrying constituents into changing their minds but it doesn't look hopeful and Bercow has to play ball as well.
If the clock runs out, doesn't the WA run out with it?
If we revoke before 29/3 we can re-instate A50 at a point in the future which would in theory allow us to leave the EU but hopefully with a WA which commands a majority in the Commons.
The "in theory" bit allows for the possibility of a second referendum (remote though more feasible if it were do we want to continue the process of leaving the EU or remain?) or a GE (if a Party with a manifesto pledge to remain as EU members wins a majority, doesn't that supersede the 23/6/16 result?)
I don't quite see what purpose a GE would serve as a) 500 or so of the MPs already there would be there again and b) both the Conservative and Labour parties would remain hopelessly divided.
The "unknown" is what impact a No Deal will have. September 1992 is widely regarded as a political disaster for the Major Government as its reputation for economic management was shattered but perversely many now view what happened as economically positive - I recall Andrew Neil would call it "White Wednesday". Interest rates fell sharply as sterling devalued and we enjoyed a prolonged period of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and rising asset prices.
Talking to my estate agent friend yesterday, his anecdotal report was no one was talking about Brexit, indeed people were ignoring it. Property was being bought and sold but, he added, prices were broadly similar to 2018 so the market has plateaued in terms of value if not activity.
A totally uninformed suggestion: could May & Corbyn negotiate a post-Brexit GE [with the future political relationship to be part of the manifesto process] as the price for Labour officially supporting or abstaining on the WA?
What would be the mechanism for enforcement? Presumably a leadership change for the Tories would be part of the process too - so set a date in September for the GE. Maybe a leadership change for Labour too.
Could TM get this past her own Cabinet/party? Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?
May is a stubborn and dictatorial leader. Corbyn is a dogmatic and ideological leader.
To be honest, Mrs U doesn't need much excuse when its comes to CostCo...she seem to end up buying like we are facing a national emergency every time. I think we still have 4 years of a 5 year supply of toothpaste to get through.
Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?
People called the police when KFC ran out of chicken.
Haha I think you have a point there Scott. 😊 I think it might be a bit like the last petrol crisis, the odd empty shelf in the immediate aftermath at worst but back to normal within a week or 2.
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.
Back to the 50's then.
Hopefully not. We do have a quandery at the moment where it seems that Islamophobia trumps Homophobia which trumps other Religious views. I do wonder what would have happened if those bakers in Northern Ireland had been Moslems. And before anyone thinks I'm being more of an idiot than usual, I detest anyone discriminating against anyone on the grounds of race, religion, sexuality or gender - but I do understand discrimination on the grounds of stupidity.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.
Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.
The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
Another backer of MV2 says he may not back MV3 now.
Stupendous.
Ben Bradley? Voted Remain, became committed Brexiter to win Mansfield. Voted against MV1, for MV2. Now seems to want to continue his remarkable streak of not knowing what is in his mind.
What percentage of the people filling this petition are likely to be out this weekend at the planned marches? If the petition gets to a million by end of afternoon I can imagine we're likely to see at least 25% of that in London Saturday.
Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.
Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.
The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
The EU will also move on, and continue in a direction that is an anathema to our interests. The EU we would be rejoining will not be the same EU we left.
That is what is needed. Then it is sign or no deal
Or revoke
embarrassing it takes France to sort this out - how many times does it need saying Deal, No Deal, Revoke - that's it, the HoC needs to decide between Revoke or Deal or accept No Deal as the outcome
Actually the correct comparator is the difference of votes. As nobody has started a petition saying yes please, we want to become a third world backwater next Friday, that is 950000 - 0 signatures on the petition vs a difference of 1.3m in the referendum. We'll be there by tea time.
Strange that this time yesterday there were those bragging that the No Deal petition launched 4 months ago was well ahead with 350,000 signatories. They seem to have gone quiet since the revoke petition is coming close to a million in 24 hours.
I agree it may not signify a great deal but there are a lot of very angry people out there and not all of them are people who think Brexit is being "betrayed". If the leavers manoeuvre us into a no deal a week from now this will be the tip of the iceberg.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.
Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.
The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
How much evidence do you think there is that the electorate is moving on?
Actually the correct comparator is the difference of votes. As nobody has started a petition saying yes please, we want to become a third world backwater next Friday, that is 950000 - 0 signatures on the petition vs a difference of 1.3m in the referendum. We'll be there by tea time.
There is no correct comparator, people will be far more motivated to sign one of these things if it isn’t already going to happen (one way or another) by default.
Comments
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished
Once the powers that be decide May has to be removed the future of the party won't be the consideration. Just the fact that its legal (which means the Crown has to give authority. And by "the crown" it doesn't mean Brenda, just her authority.
May looks ill...
Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.
Gauke and Rudd are minor details. But a Chex going is always massive news.
Unfortunately Hammond has all the dynamism of a squid, but you never know, even squid can be made palatable if you salt them and add chilli.
It merely suggests that non-straight people are one of the groups, amongst a great number, it is wrong to bully.
This is Section 28 returning in a curious alliance of religious fundamentalists and "parental rights" social conservatives.
I have given up on each and everyone of them.
I hope the EU stops this charade on the spot and refuses an extension or makes it only dependent on the deal passing
I have had enough as has most everyone - there is a life going on out there away from the asylum that is the HOC
What would be the mechanism for enforcement? Presumably a leadership change for the Tories would be part of the process too - so set a date in September for the GE. Maybe a leadership change for Labour too.
Could TM get this past her own Cabinet/party? Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?
The deal does not appear to be a requirement.
"when asked who would be to blame for a no-deal Brexit, the public are most likely to say the government and Tory MPs...."
Stupendous.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
If you don’t want it back then don’t belittle or patronise me.
I'm still not convinced how and indeed if MV3 gets to the Commons next week. I assume May is hoping those intent on voting against will be harangued by worried Council candidates and terrified Mail-carrying constituents into changing their minds but it doesn't look hopeful and Bercow has to play ball as well.
If the clock runs out, doesn't the WA run out with it?
If we revoke before 29/3 we can re-instate A50 at a point in the future which would in theory allow us to leave the EU but hopefully with a WA which commands a majority in the Commons.
The "in theory" bit allows for the possibility of a second referendum (remote though more feasible if it were do we want to continue the process of leaving the EU or remain?) or a GE (if a Party with a manifesto pledge to remain as EU members wins a majority, doesn't that supersede the 23/6/16 result?)
I don't quite see what purpose a GE would serve as a) 500 or so of the MPs already there would be there again and b) both the Conservative and Labour parties would remain hopelessly divided.
The "unknown" is what impact a No Deal will have. September 1992 is widely regarded as a political disaster for the Major Government as its reputation for economic management was shattered but perversely many now view what happened as economically positive - I recall Andrew Neil would call it "White Wednesday". Interest rates fell sharply as sterling devalued and we enjoyed a prolonged period of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and rising asset prices.
Talking to my estate agent friend yesterday, his anecdotal report was no one was talking about Brexit, indeed people were ignoring it. Property was being bought and sold but, he added, prices were broadly similar to 2018 so the market has plateaued in terms of value if not activity.
Or revoke
So, no.
Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.
The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
This is my 20,000th post!
Time well spent hopefully.
Actually the correct comparator is the difference of votes. As nobody has started a petition saying yes please, we want to become a third world backwater next Friday, that is 950000 - 0 signatures on the petition vs a difference of 1.3m in the referendum. We'll be there by tea time.
I agree it may not signify a great deal but there are a lot of very angry people out there and not all of them are people who think Brexit is being "betrayed". If the leavers manoeuvre us into a no deal a week from now this will be the tip of the iceberg.