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  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.
    I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.

    Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.
    Are we prepared for no deal? If so, what preparations have been taken for no deal? Can we be reasonably certain the economy won't fall off a cliff? Etc. I want to leave, but I want to leave in an orderly manner. If that's not possible then the other options, however unpalatable, have to be considered. There's a case for revoke now to reset the clock to prepare for an orderly no deal. I can't see the case for crashing out to no deal when as far as I can see the government have made no preparations for that event.

    Of course if we crash out to no deal and it ends up being a black Wednesday event (something that looked terrible for the economy in the weeks following the event, but ultimately was the right decision for the economy) then I will be happy to eat my words. But right now the thought of no deal terrifies me. I've been fairly consistent here in supporting May's deal since it was first announced. But if Parliament isn't wiling to vote for it, I'm not willing to risk jumping off the edge into the unknown. For me, it's an unacceptable level of risk. I can't be the only leaver thinking this. Can I?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    I know he's the messiah, but in 7 days....at the rate the EU operates...be more of a miracle than water into wine and the feed the 5000 from seven loaves and fishes.
    Yeah but he's the absolubte BOY
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Laura Kuenssberg
    ‏Verified account @bbclaurak

    Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension

    fuck fuck fuck fuck...

    Unless we revoke presumable...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doing
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:



    Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...

    Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.
    Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.

    If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.

    They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.
    Outwitted by a moron.
    I presume you're including those supporters of Tessy's deal among the outwitted?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Francois looked like he could hardly believe his luck on the TV last night. Who'd have thunk it, a "Francois" celebrating Monsieur Macron.

    Like Farage, as other people have mentioned, he probably has a complex about his French background.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:

    "Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doing
    Well given he never read the full WA what do you expect.
  • Laura Kuenssberg
    ‏Verified account @bbclaurak

    Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension

    fuck fuck fuck fuck...

    Unless we revoke presumable...

    Which rather demolishes the "don't worry, there are moves afoot. There's zero chance the EU will push us into no deal" comment I got from a source about an hour ago.

    Things are slipping away from both May and May's succcessor's options at an increasing rate of knots.

    Deal
    No Deal
    Revoke

    Whatever option - it'll all be over next Friday. No extension.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Laura Kuenssberg
    ‏Verified account @bbclaurak

    Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension

    fuck fuck fuck fuck...

    Unless we revoke presumable...

    Laura Kuensberg said fuck fuck fuck fuck??
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Surely committing to parliament input and some control over the future relationship negotiation gets the deal through? Then renege once we are out
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    A delay I would have thought needs full legislation because the exit date is already on the Statute Book with Royal Assent. So what new is going to be achieved with more time? Business will quite soon invest if we press on now. We will look back and wonder what all the fuss was about. A bit more British spirit rather than metropolitan liberal snowflake spirit needed.

    The Withdrawal Act talks about "Exit Day", and although it is set as March 29th, that can be amended by a minister "by regulation", which I think we've established needs a simple vote in each house.

    While we're in statute book corner, the FTPA says a replacement government can obtain the confidence of the House *within* the fortnight before an election's called:

    An early parliamentary general election is also to take place if—
    (a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (4), and
    (b)the period of 14 days after the day on which that motion is passed ends without the House passing a motion in the form set out in subsection (5).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:



    Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...

    Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.
    Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.

    If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.

    They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.
    Outwitted by a moron.
    I presume you're including those supporters of Tessy's deal among the outwitted?
    Fair point.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited March 2019

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    I know he's the messiah...
    He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty goy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815

    Laura Kuenssberg
    ‏Verified account @bbclaurak

    Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension

    fuck fuck fuck fuck...

    Unless we revoke presumable...

    I think you should make it clear where LK's comments stop and yours start. I nearly had heart failure thinking she said the 2nd sentence (if that can be called a sentence)
  • Scott_P said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Corbyn in Brussels. Wonder if the tabloids can rustle up a Chuka Umunna lookalike to follow him round.

    https://twitter.com/sw1a0aa/status/1108720994892558337
    He added: “Of course, if I’d known it was the real Chuka I would still have walked out, because I’m a petulant little factional lefty bitch.”
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Laura Kuenssberg
    ‏Verified account @bbclaurak

    Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension

    fuck fuck fuck fuck...

    Unless we revoke presumable...

    Which rather demolishes the "don't worry, there are moves afoot. There's zero chance the EU will push us into no deal" comment I got from a source about an hour ago.

    Things are slipping away from both May and May's succcessor's options at an increasing rate of knots.

    Deal
    No Deal
    Revoke

    Whatever option - it'll all be over next Friday. No extension.
    The EU are right to demand a decision, rather than giving more time to faff around.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:

    "Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."

    Personally I agree. Jo doesn't have the reach needed to be an effective third party leader; she's obsessed with identity politics, and can be intensely irritating. Layla is by far the better choice, if a gamble as the chance has come her way rather earlier than would be ideal.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:



    Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...

    Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.
    Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.

    If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.

    They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.
    Outwitted by a moron.
    I presume you're including those supporters of Tessy's deal among the outwitted?
    Yes.

    It is remarkable that No Deal has support of maybe 75 odd MPs, yet it looks like we may well be getting it.

    If true, then both Tessy Dealers and Remainers have screwed up big time.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doing
    It might not be a bad idea to invite Barnier to address Parliament ASAP and have him explain what the negotiations are about, because it seems abundantly clear to me that a lot of people are mixing up the withdrawal, transition, and future free trade deal.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.


    "Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.

    The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Sean_F said:

    Andrew said:



    Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...

    Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.
    Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.

    If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.

    They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.
    Outwitted by a moron.
    Better or worse than being outwitted by a bus?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    glw said:

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doing
    It might not be a bad idea to invite Barnier to address Parliament ASAP and have him explain what the negotiations are about, because it seems abundantly clear to me that a lot of people are mixing up the withdrawal, transition, and future free trade deal.
    Certainly it should be clearly laid out do the electorate can see the games being played here
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.

    We are going to be seeing MPs vote at 10pm on the 29th aren't we?

    "With less than hour to go before we leave the EU in a No Deal Brexit, we go over live to the House of Commons for the result of the MPs third vote on Theresa May's Deal....."
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    IanB2 said:

    Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:

    "Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."

    Personally I agree. Jo doesn't have the reach needed to be an effective third party leader; she's obsessed with identity politics, and can be intensely irritating. Layla is by far the better choice, if a gamble as the chance has come her way rather earlier than would be ideal.
    Fully agree.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    What we need for extra kicks and giggles is a caught on microphone comment from a corbynite about holding firm and we can pin it all on the Tories. I wouldn't be remotely shocked if one were 'manufactured'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    The revoke Article 50 petition has hit 1 million signatures.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    kjh said:

    Laura Kuenssberg
    ‏Verified account @bbclaurak

    Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension

    fuck fuck fuck fuck...

    Unless we revoke presumable...

    I think you should make it clear where LK's comments stop and yours start. I nearly had heart failure thinking she said the 2nd sentence (if that can be called a sentence)
    haha...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    AndyJS said:

    Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.


    "Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.

    The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

    But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.

    In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    1000000+ on the petition.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.


    "Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.

    The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."

    https://med.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

    And until now, their only significant organisation has been one large march. That there's been such a rapid organisation presages the future.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Petition passed 1 million.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    1000000+ on the petition.

    16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1108743303112081409

    Owen Jones, outrider for the inner circle says what we all know 'reinforcing the EU’s anti-democratic grip on economic policy'

    They want a No-Deal....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    1000000+ on the petition.

    16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.
    I think both those points are already well understood by everyone. But thank you for the clarification.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.


    "Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.

    The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

    But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.

    In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...
    There's a 0.96 r correlation between the 2nd ref and revoke petitions. The idea there is a whole heap of leavers for revoke out there is for the birds.
  • AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72

    Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.

    Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Scott_P said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Corbyn in Brussels. Wonder if the tabloids can rustle up a Chuka Umunna lookalike to follow him round.

    https://twitter.com/sw1a0aa/status/1108720994892558337
    He added: “Of course, if I’d known it was the real Chuka I would still have walked out, because I’m a petulant little factional lefty bitch.”
    I wonder if he'd been prepared to also walk out if Umunna wasn't there, on the grounds that not all the party leaders were present.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    It's there!

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    IanB2 said:

    Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:

    "Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."

    Personally I agree. Jo doesn't have the reach needed to be an effective third party leader; she's obsessed with identity politics, and can be intensely irritating. Layla is by far the better choice, if a gamble as the chance has come her way rather earlier than would be ideal.
    I think Moran has the potential to be every bit as irritating as Swinson, possibly more so.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency

    So will No Deal
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
    We have been in a proper national emergency for months. There are two ways out of it, revocation or no deal, and neither of them are pretty.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    I know he's the messiah...
    He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty goy.
    Ha!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.


    "Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.

    The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

    But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.

    In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...
    The correlation is still there:

    https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1108701393836302336
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited March 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    1000000+ on the petition.

    16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.
    You keep forgetting to deduct the deaths and desertions from your total.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008

    1000000+ on the petition.

    16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.
    I hope that no one who was holding up the Shamima Begum petition as a powerful indication of the national mood is now belittling the notion of petitions.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.


    "Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.

    The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

    But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.

    In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...
    Another personal attack.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    1000000+ on the petition.

    16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.
    You keep forgetting to deduct the deaths and desertions from your total.
    Probably not close to 15.4 million... :p
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Other possible game changers - 500,000 remainers trash London on the weekend. Senior politician is caught saying something inflammatory about Brexit. VONC causes timeout. May refuses to act on parliaments vote and holds on till 11pm 29th. EU intervene and rule out any extension
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Alasdair said:

    Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.

    Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.
    A fair point. However, the government has no business it deems important enough to bring forward. We don't even know the business for next week.
    They could just sit there I suppose.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    1000000+ on the petition.

    16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.
    I hope that no one who was holding up the Shamima Begum petition as a powerful indication of the national mood is now belittling the notion of petitions.
    Quite.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency

    So will No Deal
    Indeed
    Deal it is then
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Scott_P said:

    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency

    So will No Deal
    Indeed
    Deal it is then
    Afraid it isn't.
  • Scott_P said:

    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency

    So will No Deal
    Indeed
    Deal it is then
    Numbers gone. The deal seems dead.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Scott_P said:
    A vote to revoke would require a degree of courage which MPs have so far failed to display.

    Now, if they could revoke while passing the buck...…..
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    If Theresa May were to go to the EU and ask for a long extension on the basis that she's throwing in the towel and a new PM would take over, would they agree?

    I'd suggest probably yes, although it wouldn't be guaranteed. Dunno if she'd do it though, still less whether it would resolve anything, and a leadership contest in current circumstances would not be a pretty sight.

    My guess would be that she's not up for the optics of that, and would either drive over the cliff at 85mph, or would quit/indicate she planned to, then let Lidington as her deputy, Hunt as Foreign Sec (or Barclay - though I suspect he'd be off too) go into bat.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    A vote to revoke would require a degree of courage which MPs have so far failed to display.

    Now, if they could revoke while passing the buck...…..
    Theresa May on Parliament: "They forced me to do it."
    Parliament on Theresa May: "She forced us to do it."
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited March 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    Any evidence to back that up? If we revoke there will be a general election afterwards because the government has failed and a replacement with proper mandate would be required.
  • Scott_P said:

    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency

    So will No Deal
    Indeed
    Deal it is then
    Numbers gone. The deal seems dead.
    I would not like to choose between deal - no deal - revoke

    Deal is ready and moves us on, the other two are very controversial
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
    Ruin or Betrayal are the choices facing MPs if they reject May's deal.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    Any evidence to back that up? If we revoke there will be a general election afterwards because the government has failed and a replacement with proper mandate would be required.
    I don't have a crystal ball but I'd say it's a fairly likely outcome given the heat of division and numbers that voted to leave
    The 'revoke will be fine' mob are as bad as the 'no deal no problem' gang
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. F, that's why I thought a second referendum might be realistic. Weirdly, it feels further away now than a few days ago. To me, anyway.
  • AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72
    dixiedean said:

    Alasdair said:

    Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.

    Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.
    A fair point. However, the government has no business it deems important enough to bring forward. We don't even know the business for next week.
    They could just sit there I suppose.
    'The government has no business it deems important enough to bring forward.'
    Just incredible.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
    If you’re gonna have chaos and civil unrest either way then, it’d probably be better with supply chains still operating.
  • May is out of the country.

    Do we have to let her back in?
  • If she wanted to pass the deal, she seems to have significantly weakened her chances with it with MP's last night.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    He's cracked it!

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.

    Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.

    “Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    I know he's the messiah...
    He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty goy.
    LOL
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    Alasdair said:

    Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.

    Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.
    Not the Commons, the Leader of the House: Why not ask Mrs. Leadsom to give up some family time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Neither revoke nor no deal will cause a national emergency. Life will go on as normal.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.


    "Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.

    The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2

    But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.

    In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...
    There's a 0.96 r correlation between the 2nd ref and revoke petitions. The idea there is a whole heap of leavers for revoke out there is for the birds.
    So just me and Wor Lass then? Both signed the Revoke petition.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Scott_P said:

    Revoking will cause a proper national emergency

    So will No Deal
    Indeed
    Deal it is then
    Numbers gone. The deal seems dead.
    I would not like to choose between deal - no deal - revoke

    Deal is ready and moves us on, the other two are very controversial
    All very true.
    But the deal is unpopular. And every time the PM opens her mouth to sell it, she puts her foot in it.
    So the choice is stark...and there will be no "Middle Way".
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
    If you’re gonna have chaos and civil unrest either way then, it’d probably be better with supply chains still operating.
    Or vote for the deal and work on a good future deal like adults
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Neither revoke nor no deal will cause a national emergency. Life will go on as normal.

    Absolutely.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
    Or a Farage premiership (which might be a definition of 'chaos and civil unrest').
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    AndyJS said:

    Neither revoke nor no deal will cause a national emergency. Life will go on as normal.

    You must learn to recognise a known unknown when you see one.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,818
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    A vote to revoke would require a degree of courage which MPs have so far failed to display.

    Now, if they could revoke while passing the buck...…..
    Is it even legally clear whether the Commons can unilaterally revoke without government involvement? Surely it is not.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Woolie, quite.

    The idea the Commons could revoke Article 50 and then all would be calm down and go back to normal is mad.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
    No - it will cause a huge storm in the political world but about 99% of people are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit and will be happy to see the back of it. A small minority hold "die in the ditch" positions on either side but the vast majority of people do not. The usual nutters may try to stir things up but recent efforts by leave supporters to mobilise people on the streets have been a flop - Farage's risible march being the latest example.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    May is out of the country.

    Do we have to let her back in?

    Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

    The Saj to revoke her citizenship while she's out ;)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    All the fuss on the deal and it covers a short period while we negotiate a deal. Insane
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    May is out of the country.

    Do we have to let her back in?

    Maybe Javid could revoke her citizenship?
    He has form after all :)
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    May is out of the country.

    Do we have to let her back in?

    I hope she’s not eligible for another country’s citizenship...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sorry, but her behaviour this last 24 hours (appealing directly to the public rather than to MPs, suddenly putting out videos with captions after usually being so averse to social media) only makes sense if she is planning a general election.

    Whether her own MPs would allow her to lead them into an election is another matter. She seems to have gone completely deranged to me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
    No - it will cause a huge storm in the political world but about 99% of people are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit and will be happy to see the back of it. A small minority hold "die in the ditch" positions on either side but the vast majority of people do not. The usual nutters may try to stir things up but recent efforts by leave supporters to mobilise people on the streets have been a flop - Farage's risible march being the latest example.
    I think that the electoral consequences would be unpleasant for MPs who backed Revoke, which is why it has not been attempted.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    A vote to revoke would require a degree of courage which MPs have so far failed to display.

    Now, if they could revoke while passing the buck...…..
    Is it even legally clear whether the Commons can unilaterally revoke without government involvement? Surely it is not.
    That's why I think they'd have to pass a VONC, and then presumably, a resolution requesting revocation. I expect the EU would grant an extension in that situation.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    A vote to revoke would require a degree of courage which MPs have so far failed to display.

    Now, if they could revoke while passing the buck...…..
    Is it even legally clear whether the Commons can unilaterally revoke without government involvement? Surely it is not.
    No, the PM would have to enact it using the prerogative. If she refuses parliament cannot force her, only no confidence and try and get a new PM before 11pm 29th to do it.
    Or HMQ herself but she would never do it
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    May is out of the country.

    Do we have to let her back in?

    Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

    The Saj to revoke her citizenship while she's out ;)
    LOL

    (Again. I'm liking this Blitz spirit humour from PB.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Revoking will cause avoid a proper national emergency
    Corrected that for you.

    You're welcome.
    Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at all
    I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.
    That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrest
    No - it will cause a huge storm in the political world but about 99% of people are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit and will be happy to see the back of it. A small minority hold "die in the ditch" positions on either side but the vast majority of people do not. The usual nutters may try to stir things up but recent efforts by leave supporters to mobilise people on the streets have been a flop - Farage's risible march being the latest example.
    I think that the electoral consequences would be unpleasant for MPs who backed Revoke, which is why it has not been attempted.
    How many MPs who voted against invoking Article 50 suffered for it in the 2017 General Election?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    What could this mean? Government of National Unity?

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1108748072744636416
  • What could this mean? Government of National Unity?

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1108748072744636416

    Looks like it.

    I'm surprised this hasn't been considered sooner.
This discussion has been closed.