Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
How many ? I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.
I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.
You are probably right, but it's the wrong question. The key question is how many MPs would prefer the EU's deal to what the actual alternative turns out to be (most likely a No Deal crashout next week, I think, given where we are).
Some may feel (possibly correctly) that the EU27 will fold & extend in the final 24 hours if MV3 crashes down.
They really don’t want No Deal either.
Macron won't back down, he needs the kick the Brits props withI his home problems
Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
Then arrange for Mrs May to step down, only the 'centre' section of the party will be able to select the 2 candidates for her replacement. Elect your new leader and have a GE in Autumn.
Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
How many ? I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.
I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.
You are probably right, but it's the wrong question. The key question is how many MPs would prefer the EU's deal to what the actual alternative turns out to be (most likely a No Deal crashout next week, I think, given where we are).
Which is a reasonable question. And the responsibility for that binary choice being out before a fractured parliament at the last possible moment lies entirely with May. Both PM and MPs will be to blame if we No Deal.
The MPs have been engaged in all manner of displacement activity.
It was obvious what May's strategy was. She is very transparent.
If the substantial number of MPs against No Deal could not organise themselves to prevent it, then the fault is theirs.
Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
Some may feel (possibly correctly) that the EU27 will fold & extend in the final 24 hours if MV3 crashes down.
They really don’t want No Deal either.
A lot of people are analysing things on the basis of what could or should happen, but ignoring the mechanics and the unbelievably tight timescale. I find this thread by Peter Foster (which I think someone posted earlier) to be terrifyingly persuasive:
I think they're mostly kosher. There are nearly 5,000 signatures each from places like Brighton, Hove, Cambridge, whereas the numbers are in the high hundreds for Leave-voting constituencies.
Mostly, but there will be a fair few troublemakers in there too.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?
I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.
95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.
Those same MPs are quite happy recklessly to risk avoidable deaths in pursuit of their desired outcome. Forgive me if they are not uppermost in my thoughts.
I hope you don’t really mean that.
I consider those two things to be linked. If unavoidable deaths do occur there may be a fair few very angry people.
These MPs are making their choices with their eyes open. They are recklessly risking the lives of others. If that would result in them feeling a little fear of their own, well, perhaps the remedy now is obvious?
That’s my point, and one I intend to make to them.
Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
How many ? I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.
I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.
On the ERG side, the usual quoted number is c. 20 irreconcilables, though @AlastairMeeks has done some counting and currently has the number set against over 35, IIRC. But more might come over if the DUP can be persuaded.
As for the DUP, there were suggestions they might vote for the deal on the basis of further assurances about the UK maintaining regulatory alignment, though I have my doubts. I don't have the necessary qualifications in Ulstronomy to know whether they're truly more concerned about Brexit not happening or the risks of the backstop.
And on the Labour side, from John Rentoul:
It may be that the prime minister will get close enough to agreement to unlock the Labour votes she needs. There are about 30 to 40 Labour MPs who feel strongly that we should leave the EU, but many of them don't want to vote with the Conservatives unless they can be sure that it is actually going to happen this time.
Some may feel (possibly correctly) that the EU27 will fold & extend in the final 24 hours if MV3 crashes down.
They really don’t want No Deal either.
A lot of people are analysing things on the basis of what could or should happen, but ignoring the mechanics and the unbelievably tight timescale. I find this thread by Peter Foster (which I think someone posted earlier) to be terrifyingly persuasive:
I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.
95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.
Those same MPs are quite happy recklessly to risk avoidable deaths in pursuit of their desired outcome. Forgive me if they are not uppermost in my thoughts.
I hope you don’t really mean that.
I consider those two things to be linked. If unavoidable deaths do occur there may be a fair few very angry people.
These MPs are making their choices with their eyes open. They are recklessly risking the lives of others. If that would result in them feeling a little fear of their own, well, perhaps the remedy now is obvious?
That’s my point, and one I intend to make to them.
And if they don't listen, then that's entirely on their own heads. If they believe that No Deal Brexit is an omelette that can't be made without breaking eggs, then they have to be prepared to be some of the eggs that get broken.
No petition is going to be 100% accurate, even in the old days with paper petitions. Anyone who has collected signatures for a petition will have encountered people offering to sign for their absent family members, or have people who sign the petition on the doorstep who have already signed in the high street or by returning a form from a leaflet. It is no different online, although you need a different email address for each signature, and few people will have more than a handful of addresses.
It is quite clear that the speed with which this petition is gathering signatures indicates that it has captured the mood of a significant number of people, and the geographical distribution of the signatures is entirely credible.
Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
How many ? I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.
I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.
If your proposition is that it wuz the MPs that dun it, you'll want a decent number in the frame, particularly from a party that you don't support.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
The issue has always been what sort of "victory" No Deal delivers.....
That only works if she has dictatorial powers, not if she's been frustrated in her attempts to find a solution. It's not a good deal, but 'who else would do better?' is a refrain I hear often.
Jezzie and most of his cronies had no intention of letting her claim credit for any deal she negotiated, because that would be to the Tory's political advantage. The assorted opposition were always against Brexit. The only deal they would contemplate was Remain. Only real party loyalists would deny that.
The deal itself is acceptable to the EU, so it's not a hard Brexit in any sense, and for once, I have sympathy with the EU. British party loyalties over-rule negotiation. For Labour, it has to be a Labour-labelled deal to be acceptable. The Tories decided that as the governing party, that was their prerogative. The only way out was to appoint someone neutral to carry out the talks, and Mrs May, as a Remainer wouldn't be illogical. As ever paranoia rules, but if my prediction comes to pass, the Leavers would be right to be paranoid.
MPs are in competition to see who can lie the most for longest, and it's a very unedifying contest.
Some may feel (possibly correctly) that the EU27 will fold & extend in the final 24 hours if MV3 crashes down.
They really don’t want No Deal either.
A lot of people are analysing things on the basis of what could or should happen, but ignoring the mechanics and the unbelievably tight timescale. I find this thread by Peter Foster (which I think someone posted earlier) to be terrifyingly persuasive:
The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.
Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.
In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
All former PMs require armed protection for the rest of their lives.
I just think this one would require more than a few discreetly deployed officers. Maybe a full platoon? What do people think?
Probably there is no real threat to retired PMs. Terrorists these days kill those out having fun at concerts, nightclubs and football matches. They target holidaymakers and tourists, not superannuated politicians.
Perhaps if there was that risk, it might change behaviours. At present, the belief seems to be that actions are consequenceless and it’s all somebody else’s fault. Fuck them.
This a fight between two tribes. Celtic v. Rangers. The details of the contest don't matter any more.
Remainers despise Leavers - and Leavers despise Remainers. It's a fight to the death.
I suspect the Leavers have more violent nutcases in their ranks than Remainers - though I suspect Remainers are capable of more subtle sabotage.
We need a common enemy to unite against. Please step forward the President of France.
Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
How many ? I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.
I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.
On the ERG side, the usual quoted number is c. 20 irreconcilables, though @AlastairMeeks has done some counting and currently has the number set against over 35, IIRC. But more might come over if the DUP can be persuaded.
As for the DUP, there were suggestions they might vote for the deal on the basis of further assurances about the UK maintaining regulatory alignment, though I have my doubts. I don't have the necessary qualifications in Ulstronomy to know whether they're truly more concerned about Brexit not happening or the risks of the backstop.
And on the Labour side, from John Rentoul:
It may be that the prime minister will get close enough to agreement to unlock the Labour votes she needs. There are about 30 to 40 Labour MPs who feel strongly that we should leave the EU, but many of them don't want to vote with the Conservatives unless they can be sure that it is actually going to happen this time.
It would need to be a coronation to get a new PM in place in time. It will liven up the betting markets, especially if he or she is described as a caretaker for (say) three months.
I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.
95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.
Those same MPs are quite happy recklessly to risk avoidable deaths in pursuit of their desired outcome. Forgive me if they are not uppermost in my thoughts.
I hope you don’t really mean that.
I consider those two things to be linked. If unavoidable deaths do occur there may be a fair few very angry people.
These MPs are making their choices with their eyes open. They are recklessly risking the lives of others. If that would result in them feeling a little fear of their own, well, perhaps the remedy now is obvious?
Problem is we already have avoidable deaths. Calculating and attributing blame for and identifying the additional avoidable deaths would be painful, and may shine a light on parts of NHS and other care regimes that reveal all sorts of horrors.
Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.
When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
Exactly. God help us, it seems that most of our MPs and even some party leaders are unaware of what is actually being negotiated.
How about “ HMG will carry out parallel negotiations on our future trade agreement with the EU that includes membership of the CU and will bring the option back to parliament”
Labour have made it clear that they accept the WA but want a different political declaration - in other words they could easily vote for the deal without surrendering their plan for the future but have chosen not to.
even if the WA was rewritten to be a direct copy of Das Capital, Jezza would whip against.
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
You’d need 90 Labour MPs plus 180 Tories plus TIGers plus LDs plus SNP to back someone like Liddington or Hilary Benn via a written agreement for 3 months or so with a guaranteed election at the end.
No petition is going to be 100% accurate, even in the old days with paper petitions. Anyone who has collected signatures for a petition will have encountered people offering to sign for their absent family members, or have people who sign the petition on the doorstep who have already signed in the high street or by returning a form from a leaflet. It is no different online, although you need a different email address for each signature, and few people will have more than a handful of addresses.
It is quite clear that the speed with which this petition is gathering signatures indicates that it has captured the mood of a significant number of people, and the geographical distribution of the signatures is entirely credible.
It’s the People’s Vote consistency just being honest.
Aaron, You may done this already, but what is your position on all of this and if you had made it in to Parliament at the last election do you think the pressures there would have changed things for you?
I voted to Leave, though I entered that process as a swing voter [a pretty novel experience for me]. I stood at the 2017 GE on the basis of supporting the Prime Minister's efforts to get a good deal and I'd like to think I'd have voted on that basis in Parliament.
Of course, had I made it to Parliament, she'd have had a majority of 90+, so things would have been quite different. Not entirely different, though: there would still have been a rebellion on the ERG side against any deal, and paradoxically it might have been harder to get a decent deal from the EU with a hefty government majority behind it.
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
You’d need 90 Labour MPs plus 180 Tories plus TIGers plus LDs plus SNP to back someone like Liddington or Hilary Benn via a written agreement for 3 months or so with a guaranteed election at the end.
Mass casualties at the end.
I'd have thought 180 Labour to 90 Tories would be more probable.
Who is going to make the TV broadcast on evening of 29th, announcing formally that we have failed to reach a deal and therefore we are leaving without a deal in a few hours time?
I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.
When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
Exactly. God help us, it seems that most of our MPs and even some party leaders are unaware of what is actually being negotiated.
How about “ HMG will carry out parallel negotiations on our future trade agreement with the EU that includes membership of the CU and will bring the option back to parliament”
Labour have made it clear that they accept the WA but want a different political declaration - in other words they could easily vote for the deal without surrendering their plan for the future but have chosen not to.
even if the WA was rewritten to be a direct copy of Das Capital, Jezza would whip against.
"Anti-immigration populists have become the joint biggest party in the Dutch Senate, stunning the establishment in elections days after a suspected terror attack.
The eurosceptic Forum for Democracy came from nowhere to cost the prime minister, Mark Rutte, his majority in the upper chamber."
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
We could have a new PM in time for tea if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign in favour of a senior Cabinet minister. There need be no contested election if the succession is stitched up beforehand, as it will be.
Some may feel (possibly correctly) that the EU27 will fold & extend in the final 24 hours if MV3 crashes down.
They really don’t want No Deal either.
A lot of people are analysing things on the basis of what could or should happen, but ignoring the mechanics and the unbelievably tight timescale. I find this thread by Peter Foster (which I think someone posted earlier) to be terrifyingly persuasive:
The government's lie last week to defeat the Benn amendment by two may be one of the most important lies in history.
Incredible that so many MPs were stupid enough to trust May.
And this is part of the problem, is it not ? For the WA to be the reasonable and necessary compromise it is claimed to be, it rather requires some confidence in whatever administration ends up negotiating with the EU for the next couple of years - every bit as much as the confidence the DUP claim can’t be demonstrated that they can trust the EU.
Clearly the confidence in our current PM to fulfil such a role now approximates zero. Who would now fill it any better ?
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
Who is going to make the TV broadcast on evening of 29th, announcing formally that we have failed to reach a deal and therefore we are leaving without a deal in a few hours time?
I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.
When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.
Great job, guys.
Actually it'll be the Councillors. Because they are the ones scrapping for their political lives right now trying to defend seats won against expectations in 2015 with the general election turnout.
Life may be unfair but I won't shed too many tears; it's the absolute madness of the Tory grassroots that has led us inexorably to where we are now, and given the Government so little wriggle room. A few thousand defeated Tory councillors might be quite useful feedback for them.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
We could have a new PM in time for tea if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign in favour of a senior Cabinet minister. There need be no contested election if the succession is stitched up beforehand, as it will be.
Tell her to go and go now, and put Hague in to get us through the next three months.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
The Cabinet can stop her.
How? Anyway the reports suggest they aren't in favour of any alternative.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
The issue has always been what sort of "victory" No Deal delivers.....
No, the overwhelming line here until last week was overwhelmingly that ERGers were going to result in No Brexit.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
She said the opposite last week, who knows what she'll be saying next week.
Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
The issue has always been what sort of "victory" No Deal delivers.....
No, the overwhelming line here until last week was overwhelmingly that ERGers were going to result in No Brexit.
Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?
Who is going to make the TV broadcast on evening of 29th, announcing formally that we have failed to reach a deal and therefore we are leaving without a deal in a few hours time?
I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.
I'm not optimistic.
Isn't that what Liz is for?
Truss?
It’s time to start making that cheese in Britain...
Surely needs some sort of giveaway on the PD first. Even then, how many actual Labour Ayes can that draw, as opposed to abstentions? The numbers still don't look good even with 50 Lab abstentions (May then needs 294 Ayes, which atm is looking like quite a large number)
The problem is that Brexit was sold, narrowly, on the prospectus that we would get more control but otherwise we could keep the bits of the status quo we like. Brexit was therefore consequence free and required no hard choices. This was a fundamentally dishonest prospectus. The proper approach would have been to get people on board with the consequences and develop a consensus on the choices. But Leave would never have won in that case. So politicians preferred the easy dishonest approach and continue to do so.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
The Cabinet can stop her.
Are you being serious?
The PM is first amongst equals under our system. She can be stopped if there is the will. There isn't of course.
Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
The Cabinet can stop her.
Are you being serious?
The PM is first amongst equals under our system. She can be stopped if there is the will. There isn't of course.
Stopped how? And do what instead, with whose votes?
Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?
I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.
95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.
Those same MPs are quite happy recklessly to risk avoidable deaths in pursuit of their desired outcome. Forgive me if they are not uppermost in my thoughts.
I hope you don’t really mean that.
I consider those two things to be linked. If unavoidable deaths do occur there may be a fair few very angry people.
These MPs are making their choices with their eyes open. They are recklessly risking the lives of others. If that would result in them feeling a little fear of their own, well, perhaps the remedy now is obvious?
That’s my point, and one I intend to make to them.
And if they don't listen, then that's entirely on their own heads. If they believe that No Deal Brexit is an omelette that can't be made without breaking eggs, then they have to be prepared to be some of the eggs that get broken.
You’ve taken that analogy only 50% of the way. An omelette is an incredibly difficult thing to cook really well -there’s a reason it’s frequently used as a interview test in kitchens. Breaking eggs is easy, though.
When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.
Great job, guys.
Actually it'll be the Councillors. Because they are the ones scrapping for their political lives right now trying to defend seats won against expectations in 2015 with the general election turnout.
Life may be unfair but I won't shed too many tears; it's the absolute madness of the Tory grassroots that has led us inexorably to where we are now, and given the Government so little wriggle room. A few thousand defeated Tory councillors might be quite useful feedback for them.
Spot on. If we no deal next week, Tory councillors will face a bloodbath in May.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
The Cabinet can stop her.
Are you being serious?
The PM is first amongst equals under our system. She can be stopped if there is the will. There isn't of course.
Stopped how? And do what instead, with whose votes?
Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
How many ? I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.
I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.
Virtually the entire opposition don't want to see No Deal. For now, there is no viable alternative to the WA as agreed that can prevent that. There isn't time or personnel to agree an alternative solution even if one could be agreed (and it can't), and there isn't the support for revoke.
Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?
Noone gives a shit about their personal feelings. They need to vote in the only sure way to avoid "No Deal", and that is to vote for the PM's deal no matter how mean or nasty she's been to them.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
The Cabinet can stop her.
Are you being serious?
The PM is first amongst equals under our system. She can be stopped if there is the will. There isn't of course.
Stopped how? And do what instead, with whose votes?
I miss the Tory men in grey suits.
Yes, this reckless experiment of giving party members a say in things has turned out to be a disaster, for both main parties.
But the incentives for the hardliners to vote through the deal have decreased as the No Deal/No Brexit pendulum has swung back toward No Deal again. The PM being mean to them could be considered cover of sorts...
Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?
Noone gives a shit about their personal feelings. They need to vote in the only sure way to avoid "No Deal", and that is to vote for the PM's deal no matter how mean or nasty she's been to them.
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
We could have a new PM in time for tea if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign in favour of a senior Cabinet minister. There need be no contested election if the succession is stitched up beforehand, as it will be.
Could it be stitched up? It wouldn't just be a question of ensuring the cabinet were in on the plan - which might be possible - it would also be ensuring that the Boris, JRM and the rest of the ERG played ball. That would be harder. It only takes 3 dissenting Con MPs (one to stand and two to nominate) to force a contest.
Aaron, You may done this already, but what is your position on all of this and if you had made it in to Parliament at the last election do you think the pressures there would have changed things for you?
I voted to Leave, though I entered that process as a swing voter [a pretty novel experience for me]. I stood at the 2017 GE on the basis of supporting the Prime Minister's efforts to get a good deal and I'd like to think I'd have voted on that basis in Parliament.
Of course, had I made it to Parliament, she'd have had a majority of 90+, so things would have been quite different. Not entirely different, though: there would still have been a rebellion on the ERG side against any deal, and paradoxically it might have been harder to get a decent deal from the EU with a hefty government majority behind it.
Lol. So the ERG would have fu**ed things for us, whatever. What a great advertisement for voting Conservative.
So so predictable. So predictable that I predicted you would do it down thread.
Did you? Must have missed it.
I normally skip straight over your posts.
Any reason you have to be so rude? I was trying to be quite nice to you last night and conciliatory in trying to explain to you why people are baiting you over the numbers thing (but don't when you make other rational posts). If you go back and look at the threads after you left last night there was some gentle humour at your expense on counting numbers (not by me). You seem very touchy about this. I don't know why. Your arguments are usually rational, but just the other day, pretty well unprompted, you commented that these marches 'boil your piss'. That isn't a rational response. Neither is your one sided view on the numbers. Of course there will be illegitimate numbers in the petition. of course nobody knows the numbers at the march. None of it really matters. Only the ball park is important. But it really, really mattters to you. Try not to be rude. I won't be rude to you.
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.
We could have a new PM in time for tea if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign in favour of a senior Cabinet minister. There need be no contested election if the succession is stitched up beforehand, as it will be.
The handover of PM takes less than an hour, and there must be a PM even if it is only a caretaker PM. What is doubtful about your proposition is the "if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign". I personally cannot see anything that will make her agree to resign until the outcome of the next 8 days is finalised. Not even an Edwina Curry type of secret being made public.
Surely needs some sort of giveaway on the PD first. Even then, how many actual Labour Ayes can that draw, as opposed to abstentions? The numbers still don't look good even with 50 Lab abstentions (May then needs 294 Ayes, which atm is looking like quite a large number)
Surely needs some sort of giveaway on the PD first. Even then, how many actual Labour Ayes can that draw, as opposed to abstentions? The numbers still don't look good even with 50 Lab abstentions (May then needs 294 Ayes, which atm is looking like quite a large number)
Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
How many ? I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.
I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.
Virtually the entire opposition don't want to see No Deal. For now, there is no viable alternative to the WA as agreed that can prevent that. There isn't time or personnel to agree an alternative solution even if one could be agreed (and it can't), and there isn't the support for revoke.
There wasn't the support for revoke.
But nobody anticipated getting this close to the wire.
Who is going to make the TV broadcast on evening of 29th, announcing formally that we have failed to reach a deal and therefore we are leaving without a deal in a few hours time?
I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.
Boris will seize his destiny and get his Churchill moment?
The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.
Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.
In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
All former PMs require armed protection for the rest of their lives.
I just think this one would require more than a few discreetly deployed officers. Maybe a full platoon? What do people think?
Probably there is no real threat to retired PMs. Terrorists these days kill those out having fun at concerts, nightclubs and football matches. They target holidaymakers and tourists, not superannuated politicians.
Perhaps if there was that risk, it might change behaviours. At present, the belief seems to be that actions are consequenceless and it’s all somebody else’s fault. Fuck them.
I just think - for example - suppose there were serious problems with medical supplies. Potentially quite a lot of people could die as a result. Remember there has been a widespread assumption that No Deal wouldn't happen, until the last few days. Has there really been adequate planning?
Suppose you were a prominent politician and you'd been widely blamed for a No Deal Brexit. How safe would you feel in retirement?
Comments
Please, tell me more. I though they all lived here?
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.
Then arrange for Mrs May to step down, only the 'centre' section of the party will be able to select the 2 candidates for her replacement.
Elect your new leader and have a GE in Autumn.
God knows where we will be with Brexit!
It was obvious what May's strategy was. She is very transparent.
If the substantial number of MPs against No Deal could not organise themselves to prevent it, then the fault is theirs.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1108674096597028864
As for the DUP, there were suggestions they might vote for the deal on the basis of further assurances about the UK maintaining regulatory alignment, though I have my doubts. I don't have the necessary qualifications in Ulstronomy to know whether they're truly more concerned about Brexit not happening or the risks of the backstop.
And on the Labour side, from John Rentoul:
It may be that the prime minister will get close enough to agreement to unlock the Labour votes she needs. There are about 30 to 40 Labour MPs who feel strongly that we should leave the EU, but many of them don't want to vote with the Conservatives unless they can be sure that it is actually going to happen this time.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-article-50-extension-theresa-may-deal-vote-three-a8823601.html
I'm sure I also read recently a comment along the lines of "Kier Starmer privately thinks the deal is fine" but I'm struggling to trace that.
(Dupe tweet deleted, Scott_P beat me to it.)
It is quite clear that the speed with which this petition is gathering signatures indicates that it has captured the mood of a significant number of people, and the geographical distribution of the signatures is entirely credible.
"The buck stops with the PM."
That only works if she has dictatorial powers, not if she's been frustrated in her attempts to find a solution. It's not a good deal, but 'who else would do better?' is a refrain I hear often.
Jezzie and most of his cronies had no intention of letting her claim credit for any deal she negotiated, because that would be to the Tory's political advantage. The assorted opposition were always against Brexit. The only deal they would contemplate was Remain. Only real party loyalists would deny that.
The deal itself is acceptable to the EU, so it's not a hard Brexit in any sense, and for once, I have sympathy with the EU. British party loyalties over-rule negotiation. For Labour, it has to be a Labour-labelled deal to be acceptable. The Tories decided that as the governing party, that was their prerogative. The only way out was to appoint someone neutral to carry out the talks, and Mrs May, as a Remainer wouldn't be illogical. As ever paranoia rules, but if my prediction comes to pass, the Leavers would be right to be paranoid.
MPs are in competition to see who can lie the most for longest, and it's a very unedifying contest.
Remainers despise Leavers - and Leavers despise Remainers. It's a fight to the death.
I suspect the Leavers have more violent nutcases in their ranks than Remainers - though I suspect Remainers are capable of more subtle sabotage.
We need a common enemy to unite against. Please step forward the President of France.
Mass casualties at the end.
This is getting ridiculous from all sides.
The Commons would have to vote out the government, and make it clear that any new candidate for PM must revoke A50.
I normally skip straight over your posts.
I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.
I'm not optimistic.
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/21/brexit-latest-news-eu-summit-article-50-extension-theresa-may-appeal-to-nation-backfires-as-mps-accuse-her-of-stoking-hate-politics-live
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.
"Anti-immigration populists have become the joint biggest party in the Dutch Senate, stunning the establishment in elections days after a suspected terror attack.
The eurosceptic Forum for Democracy came from nowhere to cost the prime minister, Mark Rutte, his majority in the upper chamber."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/dutch-elections-surging-populists-cost-mark-rutte-his-senate-majority-tjssd320x
For the WA to be the reasonable and necessary compromise it is claimed to be, it rather requires some
confidence in whatever administration ends up negotiating with the EU for the next couple of years - every bit as much as the confidence the DUP claim can’t be demonstrated that they can trust the EU.
Clearly the confidence in our current PM to fulfil such a role now approximates zero. Who would now fill it any better ?
I know the headbangers think a scorched Earth No Deal will see them lauded as liberators and feted for 1000 years.
I am less sure that the medicine queues and food riots will be chanting their names in praise...
Life may be unfair but I won't shed too many tears; it's the absolute madness of the Tory grassroots that has led us inexorably to where we are now, and given the Government so little wriggle room. A few thousand defeated Tory councillors might be quite useful feedback for them.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.
It’s time to start making that cheese in Britain...
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1108715498152386561
Surely needs some sort of giveaway on the PD first. Even then, how many actual Labour Ayes can that draw, as opposed to abstentions? The numbers still don't look good even with 50 Lab abstentions (May then needs 294 Ayes, which atm is looking like quite a large number)
But the incentives for the hardliners to vote through the deal have decreased as the No Deal/No Brexit pendulum has swung back toward No Deal again. The PM being mean to them could be considered cover of sorts...
But nobody anticipated getting this close to the wire.
Suppose you were a prominent politician and you'd been widely blamed for a No Deal Brexit. How safe would you feel in retirement?
Easier said than done...