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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go

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  • Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    Oh no - these are always disappointing. She will find new ways to disappoint almost everyone this time.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    LOL beaten to it twice.
  • Actually:

    Game over, man! Game over!
    Can we take off and nuke the entire site (Downing Street) from Orbit?

    Macron will be saying what the others are thinking. We're sliding with increasing speed towards no deal.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICE

    If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?

    The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
    Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?

    Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
    Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.

    Latest thinking:

    TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
    No deal: 30%
    Referendum and long extension: 10%
    Revoke: 10%
    General Election and long extension: 5%
    Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Freggles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.

    But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.

    Something the Brexiter dolts on here should take heed of.

    I think everyone should avoid personal insults.

    This forum is a beacon of well and fiercely argued debate and to be fair generally not abusive
    The insults are the best bit on here, the main reason I come. Tyndal's are the funniest. Even though he is a twerp.
    I enjoy Malcolmg's insults.

    Malc is good fun and a proud Scot
    I was really surprised when I found out malcolmg and Sunil are the same person. I haven't worked out which one is the alter ego though.

    :trollface:
    I'm wearing my kilt and eating my (vegetarian) haggis right now :lol:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED....
    I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    I just wonder if May has been handed the brandy and a revolver... but by who. Remainers or leavers??

    And who then steps up??????????

    Unless Lizzie sends for Corbyn (shudders)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED....
    I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.
    Consequently,.......
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICE

    If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?

    The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
    Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?

    Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
    Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.

    Latest thinking:

    TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
    No deal: 30%
    Referendum and long extension: 10%
    Revoke: 10%
    General Election and long extension: 5%
    Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
    If Macron vetoes an extension.

    TMay's deal and short extension: 99%
    No deal 1%
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284

    _Anazina_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
    The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.
    And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?
    Yes but they'll be changing that soon I'd imagine. They don't want this happening again. Choice to depart will be reduced to no deal departure.
    Well, if I was in Juncker or Tusk's shoes I'd be pretty damn cheesed off with the UK at the moment. That they remain polite to May increases my opinion of them!
    And I would really, really want to 'discourage' anyone else from trying the same sort of silly beggars!.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED....
    I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.
    ...we are therefore at war with Germany?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED....
    I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.
    Consequently,.......
    A state of bore exists between our nations
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    I honestly don't blame the French, what the PM asking for is completely ridiculous.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    edited March 2019

    Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21

    And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    _Anazina_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.
    Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.
    The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.
    And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?
    Yes but they'll be changing that soon I'd imagine. They don't want this happening again. Choice to depart will be reduced to no deal departure.
    Well, if I was in Juncker or Tusk's shoes I'd be pretty damn cheesed off with the UK at the moment. That they remain polite to May increases my opinion of them!
    And I would really, really want to 'discourage' anyone else from trying the same sort of silly beggars!.
    Do a delian league. No breaking tryst till the stones rise from the Aegean
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,325
    Perhaps the EU would help us best if it responded to the request by saying that an extension will be granted only if parliament has ratified the WA by 29th March.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Presumably Ireland will go hopping mad if France vetoes an extension and we end up with No Deal?
  • Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Actually:

    Game over, man! Game over!
    The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! '

    Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!

    The country feels like Hudson right now....
    Spookily, I was thinking just this morning that the correct response to anti-euref2ers was "You had your chance, Gorman."
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening

    BINO?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Endillion said:

    Presumably Ireland will go hopping mad if France vetoes an extension and we end up with No Deal?

    Probably but its not very likely. Parliament will fold like a cheap suit if there is no extension on the cards.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Does anyone on PB know of a good, fairly detailed (obviously going to be pretty heavy reading!) guide to the way the NHS operates in operation terms, CCGs, ACTs, etc?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?

    Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.

    A technical extension won't be a problem once the deal is ratified. It literally could be on the last day.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited March 2019

    Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening

    Right Jezza, we are going to try and get 3 months extension...

    Ok, but I want us to totally renegotiate from scratch...

    No..that isn't on offer...its my deal or nothing...

    I'm off...

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Sean_F said:

    Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21

    And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
    On what evidence?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    dixiedean said:


    ...we are therefore at war with Germany Belgium?


    Fixed that for you.
  • SeanT said:

    Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening

    BINO?
    Norway Plus?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,042
    edited March 2019

    Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening

    Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing at the moment.

    Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Hmm get the feeling that events are moving...
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Hmm get the feeling that events are moving...

    Well, we are NINE DAYS from No Deal. One would hope so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347

    Hmm get the feeling that events are moving...

    If we were talking about Cameron, Clegg and Darling getting together to discuss this I could see things moving....we are talking about the Maybot, Jezza and Cable.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939

    Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.

    Sponsored by Pickfords?
  • Ian Blackford has just accused 'this government' of being responsible for Suez.

    All going well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Sean_F said:

    Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21

    And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
    On what evidence?
    Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Andrew said:

    dixiedean said:


    ...we are therefore at war with Germany Belgium?


    Fixed that for you.
    Hmm, I think you would scrub "Germany" and replace with "ourselves"
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21

    And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
    On what evidence?
    Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
    Fair summation that sounds reasonable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening

    Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.

    Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
    Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds in
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    Actually:

    Game over, man! Game over!
    The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! '

    Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!

    The country feels like Hudson right now....
    Earlier on it was:

    "Hey, Slackbadder, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWWAP! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks..."

    "Knock it off, Sunil!"
  • Pulpstar said:

    Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening

    Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.

    Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
    Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds in
    He'll come out with an outline agreement on bus provision.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    Does anyone on PB know of a good, fairly detailed (obviously going to be pretty heavy reading!) guide to the way the NHS operates in operation terms, CCGs, ACTs, etc?

    Raymond Tallis writes very well about many subjects, but this is a good one for Lay readers:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/jul/01/nhs-sos-davis-tallis-review
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Pulpstar said:

    Paul Brand
    @PaulBrandITV
    BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening

    Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.

    Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.
    Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds in
    He'll come out with an outline agreement on bus provision.
    Allotment holders for 2nd referendum is a powerful caucus
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Jessop, heard that the Muslim-murdering lunatic far right chap overtly wanted to add credence to the clash of civilisations, Islam versus the West type narrative that is, ironically, also popular with Islamic terrorists.

    As an aside, I noted from the news footage he had Acre 1189 scrawled on one weapon. That fortress fell to Richard the Lionheart during the Third Crusade. Richard held Saladin in high esteem, a respect and admiration that was mutual (indeed, Saladin's reputation today owes something to the glowing words the Crusaders wrote of him).

    Richard, upon his return, gave to Portsmouth (believe that was the city) a Saracen-sword (maybe two) as its symbol. A few years ago, some Portsmouth football fans were giving aid in the Middle East when an extremist group stopped them. Upon seeing the football club logo, incorporating the Saracen sword, they were let go.

    Because Richard the Lionheart held the leader of the Muslims against whom he fought a war in high regard.

    A superficial understanding of the basics of history (and I wouldn't say the Crusades are something I know a lot about) plays into equally superficial and idiotic views today. As ever, education and knowledge of history helps dispel myths modern and historical.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Well, that thought did cross my mind.. especially in the use of the word "separately". Though I suspect it's more in his role as a fixer if they need to choreograph something in the Commons.
  • Apparently the PMs meeting and the Lidington meetings clash.

    Omnishambles seems so long ago, doesn't it?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...

    I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21

    And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
    On what evidence?
    Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
    I don’t know.

    The meme that May’s Deal is just as bad as Remain has taken a pretty strong hold amongst the Kippers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Hudson: "NINE Days? Man, we're not gonna last NINE hours!"

    “Theresa May survived longer than that with no weapons and no training.”

    Theresa: [salutes]

    Hudson: “Why don’t you put her in charge?”

    "Oh...."
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...

    I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
    No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division.
    As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Bercow approves immediate emergency debate this afternoon
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited March 2019
    SO24 motion goes to a debate immediately after 10 minute rule motion for up to three hours
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239

    Apparently the PMs meeting and the Lidington meetings clash.

    Omnishambles seems so long ago, doesn't it?

    Meetings scheduled with tea and sandwiches.

    Om-nom-nom-nishambles.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    You're the one living in a bubble (a self-deluding evil-spirited bubble). According to this morning's YouGov polling, either form of Leave loses to Remain in a fresh referendum by roughly 60:40.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.

    Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,042
    edited March 2019
    "FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.

    Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited March 2019
    FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: OUR MESSAGE ON BREXIT IS CLEAR: RATIFY THE DEAL OR LEAVE WITHOUT AN AGREEMENT

    FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/20/brexit-latest-news-letter-article-50-extension-pmqs-theresa-may-bends-to-pressure-from-tory-brexiters-and-rules-out-asking-for-long-article-extension-politics-live

    I shall be stocking up on bog roll....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.

    Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
    Not at all. The rage is there I'm not suggesting its universal ffs
    And you conveniently ignore that I'm talking about rage that politicians might not deliver on 17.4 million votes, not rage at 'foreigners', which is a straw man here.
    I'm off for a bit, you can yell at me later
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    Actually:

    Game over, man! Game over!
    The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! '

    Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!

    The country feels like Hudson right now....
    Applause.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Macron's intervention increases the chance of the Deal passing, non? I wonder whether that's been co-ordinated or whether it just suits both sides domestically anyhow?
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    With luck - Lidington next PM would pay for a very nice Caribbean Holiday (if he revokes I could also cover the meals)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:

    I honestly don't blame the French, what the PM asking for is completely ridiculous.

    And intended to be, of course.
  • We're closer to no-deal than we've ever been.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.

    Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
    There are a lot of 'working class' people working in Spain, Portugal, the Canaries and so on.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...

    I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
    No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division.
    As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
    No - I really think you need to read up on it (at least what's been reported so far).

    And I maintain my point that it is mindless and stupid and results in things like the NZ attack.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    "FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.

    Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.

    This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.

    No Deal or Revoke?

    Bloody hell.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    BMW and Mercedes are leaving this a bit late, chaps. I'm beginning to get a nasty feeling they may not come through for us in time.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21

    And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.
    On what evidence?
    Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.
    I don’t know.

    The meme that May’s Deal is just as bad as Remain has taken a pretty strong hold amongst the Kippers.
    They were going to find something to complain about whatever the deal....and we haven’t remotely got to the difficult bit yet....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    SeanT said:

    "FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.

    Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.

    This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.

    No Deal or Revoke?

    Bloody hell.
    Remember when we spent arguing if ordering a posh burger or borrowing a neighbours horse would be the end of days for a government.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Scott_P said:
    Ooooooooooh!

    Guesses????

    Mine: she offers to resign if MPs pass her deal?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    "FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.

    Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.

    This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.

    No Deal or Revoke?

    Bloody hell.
    I'd expect the EU would at the least pass a proleptic resolution allowing the extension to take effect if given conditions are set. If they're trying to be constructive, that's a bare minimum.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.
    But it exists and is problematic. That's the point regardless of how sniffy we are about the source
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,178
    Reading that lot, I have this playing in my mind:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IglUmgYGxLM

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.

    Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
    Not at all. The rage is there I'm not suggesting its universal ffs
    And you conveniently ignore that I'm talking about rage that politicians might not deliver on 17.4 million votes, not rage at 'foreigners', which is a straw man here.
    I'm off for a bit, you can yell at me later
    I'd be more worried about this seething fury if Nigel's marchers were not down to low double figures by now. I realise that this is not a direct measure of working class rage but it's the best available proxy.
  • SeanT said:

    "FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.

    Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.

    This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.

    No Deal or Revoke?

    Bloody hell.
    Revoke at 10:59pm on 29 March 2019.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273
    edited March 2019
    Test
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.
    But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lie
    No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.

    We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
    That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holiday
    I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...

    I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
    No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division.
    As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
    No - I really think you need to read up on it (at least what's been reported so far).

    And I maintain my point that it is mindless and stupid and results in things like the NZ attack.
    Fair enough. I shall, but at this time do not see eye to eye on this
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    The PM inviting opposition parties to meet this evening, where she will presumably just do what she always does and say "it's this deal or no deal or no Brexit".
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICE

    If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?

    The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
    Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?

    Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
    Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.

    Latest thinking:

    TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
    No deal: 30%
    Referendum and long extension: 10%
    Revoke: 10%
    General Election and long extension: 5%
    Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
    What chance an Independence Day style alien invasion blitzing of the HOC.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767

    Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange

    Mindbleach pls...
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Ooooooooooh!

    Guesses????

    Mine: she offers to resign if MPs pass her deal?
    That's what I thought initially as well.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340



    What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.

    Mr Meeks.

    Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .

    The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.

    Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surface
    Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.
    But it exists and is problematic. That's the point regardless of how sniffy we are about the source
    Yes it exists. Yes it's problematic. Instead of indulging those who mindlessly foam, they should be addressed.

    Brexit is in a fearful mess. At no stage have Leavers of any stripe stopped to ask themselves to what extent they are responsible for that mess. Their inability ever to confront easy clap lines with hard truths is a large part of it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347

    Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange

    I suggest you change your friends...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    SO24 debate begins, mover Starmer
  • TykeTyke Posts: 18

    Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange

    Mindbleach pls...
    Is that Diane Abbott in the bottom right?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    edited March 2019

    Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange

    It looks like some sort of revolutionary Socialist mural. Presumably, the woman in the centre symbolises the Labour Party, nourishing the country with her breasts.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Scott_P said:
    So something IS happening. Oh god. The tension!

    Come on PB what is it? Best guesses???
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So something IS happening. Oh god. The tension!

    Come on PB what is it? Best guesses???
    Theresa May is invoking the Civil Contingencies Act, and will now rule by decree.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So something IS happening. Oh god. The tension!

    Come on PB what is it? Best guesses???
    May knows there's no extension coming so she's telling everyone it's no deal or revoke. At a total uneducated made-up-off-the-top-of-my-head guess.
  • SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So something IS happening. Oh god. The tension!

    Come on PB what is it? Best guesses???
    Dissolution of Parliament?
This discussion has been closed.