politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go
Comments
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Oh no - these are always disappointing. She will find new ways to disappoint almost everyone this time.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.
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LOL beaten to it twice.0
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Can we take off and nuke the entire site (Downing Street) from Orbit?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Macron will be saying what the others are thinking. We're sliding with increasing speed towards no deal.0 -
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.Philip_Thompson said:
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?SeanT said:
ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICEScott_P said:
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
No deal: 30%
Referendum and long extension: 10%
Revoke: 10%
General Election and long extension: 5%
Anglo-Chinese war: 5%0 -
I'm wearing my kilt and eating my (vegetarian) haggis right nowFreggles said:
I was really surprised when I found out malcolmg and Sunil are the same person. I haven't worked out which one is the alter ego though.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Malc is good fun and a proud ScotSean_F said:
I enjoy Malcolmg's insults.Recidivist said:
The insults are the best bit on here, the main reason I come. Tyndal's are the funniest. Even though he is a twerp.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think everyone should avoid personal insults.TOPPING said:On the main issue of the day I have no problems with insults. We are on an internet chatroom, after all, albeit a superior one.
But I do have a problem with the no you fuck off/moron/remoaner insults which are simply boring and lazy. That is a bigger crime.
Something the Brexiter dolts on here should take heed of.
This forum is a beacon of well and fiercely argued debate and to be fair generally not abusive
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And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.0 -
I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.FrancisUrquhart said:
NOTHING HAS CHANGED....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.
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I just wonder if May has been handed the brandy and a revolver... but by who. Remainers or leavers??
And who then steps up??????????
Unless Lizzie sends for Corbyn (shudders)0 -
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.0 -
Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=210 -
Consequently,.......dyedwoolie said:
I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.FrancisUrquhart said:
NOTHING HAS CHANGED....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.
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If Macron vetoes an extension.SeanT said:
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.Philip_Thompson said:
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?SeanT said:
ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICEScott_P said:
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
No deal: 30%
Referendum and long extension: 10%
Revoke: 10%
General Election and long extension: 5%
Anglo-Chinese war: 5%
TMay's deal and short extension: 99%
No deal 1%0 -
Well, if I was in Juncker or Tusk's shoes I'd be pretty damn cheesed off with the UK at the moment. That they remain polite to May increases my opinion of them!dyedwoolie said:
Yes but they'll be changing that soon I'd imagine. They don't want this happening again. Choice to depart will be reduced to no deal departure.OldKingCole said:
And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?_Anazina_ said:
The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.Nigelb said:
Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.david_herdson said:Thoughts on the June 30 extension:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1108364046670139398
And I would really, really want to 'discourage' anyone else from trying the same sort of silly beggars!.0 -
...we are therefore at war with Germany?dyedwoolie said:
I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.FrancisUrquhart said:
NOTHING HAS CHANGED....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.
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A state of bore exists between our nationsMarqueeMark said:
Consequently,.......dyedwoolie said:
I sent a communique to the EU demanding 3 months extension. I am sorry to report I have received no such undertaking.FrancisUrquhart said:
NOTHING HAS CHANGED....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.
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I honestly don't blame the French, what the PM asking for is completely ridiculous.0
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And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.CarlottaVance said:Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=210 -
Do a delian league. No breaking tryst till the stones rise from the AegeanOldKingCole said:
Well, if I was in Juncker or Tusk's shoes I'd be pretty damn cheesed off with the UK at the moment. That they remain polite to May increases my opinion of them!dyedwoolie said:
Yes but they'll be changing that soon I'd imagine. They don't want this happening again. Choice to depart will be reduced to no deal departure.OldKingCole said:
And if a member state does, can it re-invoke at a later date?_Anazina_ said:
The member state that invokes Article 50 has the unilateral power to revoke it.Nigelb said:
Agreed - I don't see how they could prevent revocation, even if it might prove exceedingly awkward to manage at that point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Good thread, but I'm not sure you are right that 'Revoke' would off the table past mid-April. It would certainly be a major headache for the EU lawyers, but that's not enough to stop us doing it, if we are so minded and if the EU has granted an extension.david_herdson said:Thoughts on the June 30 extension:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1108364046670139398
And I would really, really want to 'discourage' anyone else from trying the same sort of silly beggars!.0 -
Perhaps the EU would help us best if it responded to the request by saying that an extension will be granted only if parliament has ratified the WA by 29th March.0
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Presumably Ireland will go hopping mad if France vetoes an extension and we end up with No Deal?0
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Spookily, I was thinking just this morning that the correct response to anti-euref2ers was "You had your chance, Gorman."Slackbladder said:
The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! 'Sunil_Prasannan said:
Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!
The country feels like Hudson right now....0 -
BINO?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening0 -
Probably but its not very likely. Parliament will fold like a cheap suit if there is no extension on the cards.Endillion said:Presumably Ireland will go hopping mad if France vetoes an extension and we end up with No Deal?
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Does anyone on PB know of a good, fairly detailed (obviously going to be pretty heavy reading!) guide to the way the NHS operates in operation terms, CCGs, ACTs, etc?0
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No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
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A technical extension won't be a problem once the deal is ratified. It literally could be on the last day.Philip_Thompson said:Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
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Right Jezza, we are going to try and get 3 months extension...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Ok, but I want us to totally renegotiate from scratch...
No..that isn't on offer...its my deal or nothing...
I'm off...
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On what evidence?Sean_F said:
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.CarlottaVance said:Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=210 -
Norway Plus?SeanT said:
BINO?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening0 -
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing at the moment.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.0 -
Hmm get the feeling that events are moving...0
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Well, we are NINE DAYS from No Deal. One would hope so.Slackbladder said:Hmm get the feeling that events are moving...
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If we were talking about Cameron, Clegg and Darling getting together to discuss this I could see things moving....we are talking about the Maybot, Jezza and Cable.Slackbladder said:Hmm get the feeling that events are moving...
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Sponsored by Pickfords?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rumour of PM statement outside number 10 tonight.
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Ian Blackford has just accused 'this government' of being responsible for Suez.
All going well.0 -
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
On what evidence?Sean_F said:
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.CarlottaVance said:Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=210 -
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That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...0 -
Fair summation that sounds reasonable.Sean_F said:
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
On what evidence?Sean_F said:
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.CarlottaVance said:Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=210 -
Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds inWhisperingOracle said:
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.0 -
The caretaker PM as shes off?Harris_Tweed said:0 -
Earlier on it was:Slackbladder said:
The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! 'Sunil_Prasannan said:
Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!
The country feels like Hudson right now....
"Hey, Slackbadder, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. VWWAP! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic Ed Balls breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks..."
"Knock it off, Sunil!"0 -
He'll come out with an outline agreement on bus provision.Pulpstar said:
Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds inWhisperingOracle said:
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.0 -
Raymond Tallis writes very well about many subjects, but this is a good one for Lay readers:TheWhiteRabbit said:Does anyone on PB know of a good, fairly detailed (obviously going to be pretty heavy reading!) guide to the way the NHS operates in operation terms, CCGs, ACTs, etc?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/jul/01/nhs-sos-davis-tallis-review0 -
Allotment holders for 2nd referendum is a powerful caucusAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
He'll come out with an outline agreement on bus provision.Pulpstar said:
Jezza will start banging on about austerity 5 seconds inWhisperingOracle said:
Well at least she's trying something. Anything is better than nothing, at the moment.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: PM meeting with opposition parties this evening
Although, on previous form, Theresa May's "consultations" have taken the form of : take this or leave it, unless you're from the eurosceptic right, in which case - could you take a seat over there please, and Mrs May will see you shortly.0 -
Mr. Jessop, heard that the Muslim-murdering lunatic far right chap overtly wanted to add credence to the clash of civilisations, Islam versus the West type narrative that is, ironically, also popular with Islamic terrorists.
As an aside, I noted from the news footage he had Acre 1189 scrawled on one weapon. That fortress fell to Richard the Lionheart during the Third Crusade. Richard held Saladin in high esteem, a respect and admiration that was mutual (indeed, Saladin's reputation today owes something to the glowing words the Crusaders wrote of him).
Richard, upon his return, gave to Portsmouth (believe that was the city) a Saracen-sword (maybe two) as its symbol. A few years ago, some Portsmouth football fans were giving aid in the Middle East when an extremist group stopped them. Upon seeing the football club logo, incorporating the Saracen sword, they were let go.
Because Richard the Lionheart held the leader of the Muslims against whom he fought a war in high regard.
A superficial understanding of the basics of history (and I wouldn't say the Crusades are something I know a lot about) plays into equally superficial and idiotic views today. As ever, education and knowledge of history helps dispel myths modern and historical.0 -
Well, that thought did cross my mind.. especially in the use of the word "separately". Though I suspect it's more in his role as a fixer if they need to choreograph something in the Commons.dyedwoolie said:
The caretaker PM as shes off?Harris_Tweed said:0 -
Apparently the PMs meeting and the Lidington meetings clash.
Omnishambles seems so long ago, doesn't it?0 -
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.0 -
I don’t know.Sean_F said:
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
On what evidence?Sean_F said:
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.CarlottaVance said:Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21
The meme that May’s Deal is just as bad as Remain has taken a pretty strong hold amongst the Kippers.0 -
Hudson: "NINE Days? Man, we're not gonna last NINE hours!"dyedwoolie said:
The caretaker PM as shes off?Harris_Tweed said:
“Theresa May survived longer than that with no weapons and no training.”
Theresa: [salutes]
Hudson: “Why don’t you put her in charge?”
"Oh...."0 -
No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division.JosiasJessop said:
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble0 -
Bercow approves immediate emergency debate this afternoon0
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SO24 motion goes to a debate immediately after 10 minute rule motion for up to three hours0
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Meetings scheduled with tea and sandwiches.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Apparently the PMs meeting and the Lidington meetings clash.
Omnishambles seems so long ago, doesn't it?
Om-nom-nom-nishambles.0 -
Mr Meeks.Tykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
You're the one living in a bubble (a self-deluding evil-spirited bubble). According to this morning's YouGov polling, either form of Leave loses to Remain in a fresh referendum by roughly 60:40.0 -
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.0 -
"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.0 -
FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: OUR MESSAGE ON BREXIT IS CLEAR: RATIFY THE DEAL OR LEAVE WITHOUT AN AGREEMENT
FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/20/brexit-latest-news-letter-article-50-extension-pmqs-theresa-may-bends-to-pressure-from-tory-brexiters-and-rules-out-asking-for-long-article-extension-politics-live
I shall be stocking up on bog roll....0 -
Not at all. The rage is there I'm not suggesting its universal ffsNigel_Foremain said:
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
And you conveniently ignore that I'm talking about rage that politicians might not deliver on 17.4 million votes, not rage at 'foreigners', which is a straw man here.
I'm off for a bit, you can yell at me later0 -
Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.0 -
Applause.Slackbladder said:
The entire UK: 'I don't know if you've been keeping up on current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal! 'Sunil_Prasannan said:
Oh that's great! That's just fuckin' great man! Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man!
The country feels like Hudson right now....0 -
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Macron's intervention increases the chance of the Deal passing, non? I wonder whether that's been co-ordinated or whether it just suits both sides domestically anyhow?0
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With luck - Lidington next PM would pay for a very nice Caribbean Holiday (if he revokes I could also cover the meals)dyedwoolie said:
The caretaker PM as shes off?Harris_Tweed said:0 -
And intended to be, of course.MaxPB said:I honestly don't blame the French, what the PM asking for is completely ridiculous.
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We're closer to no-deal than we've ever been.0
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There are a lot of 'working class' people working in Spain, Portugal, the Canaries and so on.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.0 -
No - I really think you need to read up on it (at least what's been reported so far).dyedwoolie said:
No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division.JosiasJessop said:
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
And I maintain my point that it is mindless and stupid and results in things like the NZ attack.0 -
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.WhisperingOracle said:"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
No Deal or Revoke?
Bloody hell.0 -
BMW and Mercedes are leaving this a bit late, chaps. I'm beginning to get a nasty feeling they may not come through for us in time.0
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They were going to find something to complain about whatever the deal....and we haven’t remotely got to the difficult bit yet....Casino_Royale said:
I don’t know.Sean_F said:
Excluding Don't knows, support for the Deal v Remain runs at 39-50%. (39% with YouGov, 44% with Opinium, 50% with Survation).I think most No Dealers would fall in behind the Deal in a referendum, if the only other choice was Remain.Nigel_Foremain said:
On what evidence?Sean_F said:
And, this is one question where there are big differences between different pollsters. I'd make Remain slight favourite in a contest between Remain and Deal, but only slight.CarlottaVance said:Sir John is going to be run ragged trying to keep this lot straight:
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1108375118772883456?s=21
The meme that May’s Deal is just as bad as Remain has taken a pretty strong hold amongst the Kippers.0 -
Remember when we spent arguing if ordering a posh burger or borrowing a neighbours horse would be the end of days for a government.SeanT said:
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.WhisperingOracle said:"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
No Deal or Revoke?
Bloody hell.0 -
0
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I'd expect the EU would at the least pass a proleptic resolution allowing the extension to take effect if given conditions are set. If they're trying to be constructive, that's a bare minimum.SeanT said:
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.WhisperingOracle said:"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
No Deal or Revoke?
Bloody hell.0 -
But it exists and is problematic. That's the point regardless of how sniffy we are about the sourceAlastairMeeks said:
Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.0 -
0
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I'd be more worried about this seething fury if Nigel's marchers were not down to low double figures by now. I realise that this is not a direct measure of working class rage but it's the best available proxy.dyedwoolie said:
Not at all. The rage is there I'm not suggesting its universal ffsNigel_Foremain said:
I think there are rather more intelligent working class people that think it is mindless than you want to admit. Your rather patronising view of the working class is that they are all seething with hatred for people from foreign countries and those with children called Tarquin, because it suits your own prejudiced world view.dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
Whilst I am not a socialist, it may escaped your attention that working class tradition has lead the charge against prejudice and division that is the hallmark of the type of unpleasant nationalism that typifies Brexit apologists.
And you conveniently ignore that I'm talking about rage that politicians might not deliver on 17.4 million votes, not rage at 'foreigners', which is a straw man here.
I'm off for a bit, you can yell at me later0 -
Revoke at 10:59pm on 29 March 2019.SeanT said:
This means she has to pass MV3 BEFORE she asks for an extension. The timescale is impossibly tight. I don't see it working.WhisperingOracle said:"FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST." LePoint.
Hmm. May cannot offer guarantees.
No Deal or Revoke?
Bloody hell.0 -
Test0
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Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
0 -
Fair enough. I shall, but at this time do not see eye to eye on thisJosiasJessop said:
No - I really think you need to read up on it (at least what's been reported so far).dyedwoolie said:
No I think you need to read up more about it, and perhaps read between the lines at what he was trying to do in terms of sewing division.JosiasJessop said:
I think you need to read up more about the NZ attack ...dyedwoolie said:
That's your opinion. And lumping in working class brexiteers with right wing terrorist mass murderers isn't going to make everyone want to save tarquins studies in Germany or the smethursts 3rd overseas holidayJosiasJessop said:
No, it is mindless, and should be called such. People with hate in their hearts - which sums up so much of brexit.dyedwoolie said:
But existant nonetheless. The middle class can't just ignore it because they feel it mindless. That way October revolutions lieJosiasJessop said:
And as often the case, the fury is mindless and stupid.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
We saw the result of such mindless and stupid thinking in New Zealand last week. 'For Rotherham' indeed...
I'm bemused by your assumptions - and indeed the class stereotypes you're so keen to throw about.
As for class assumptions, as it was my point about seething rage under the surface (if Brexit us not delivered) I stand by my point that it us concentrated in large part in working class, often normally politically disinterested quarters and is dangerous to the bubble
And I maintain my point that it is mindless and stupid and results in things like the NZ attack.
0 -
The PM inviting opposition parties to meet this evening, where she will presumably just do what she always does and say "it's this deal or no deal or no Brexit".
What chance an Independence Day style alien invasion blitzing of the HOC.SeanT said:
Yes, that's my interpretation. But the chances of No Deal must now be well over 14%.Philip_Thompson said:
Can May squeeze through it within the next 9 days?SeanT said:
ON TOPIC. BETTING ADVICEScott_P said:
If the Macron rumours are true then surely a Brexit from Jan-March 2019 (currently 14% in the graph above) is easy money?
The chances of No Deal Brexit or a somehow squeezed-through May Brexit by March 29 must now be 40%+?
Seems to me likely that Macron vetoes an extension request [for now] demanding more clarity from Parliament, Parliament backs MV3 in order to avoid No Deal, then Macron permits a 'short, technical extension' to ratify MV3 with the UK out by May 23.
Latest thinking:
TMay's deal and short extension: 40%
No deal: 30%
Referendum and long extension: 10%
Revoke: 10%
General Election and long extension: 5%
Anglo-Chinese war: 5%0 -
Mindbleach pls...TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
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Yes it exists. Yes it's problematic. Instead of indulging those who mindlessly foam, they should be addressed.dyedwoolie said:
But it exists and is problematic. That's the point regardless of how sniffy we are about the sourceAlastairMeeks said:
Whipped up by self-aggrandising firebrands and kowtowed to by those seeking to surf on a tide of idiot nihilism to indulge their own prejudices.dyedwoolie said:
Completely correct. Fury bubbles under the surfaceTykejohnno said:
What's treacherous is arrogating to yourself the right to delegitimise the widely-held views of others. It's inconsistent with a democracy and you should be utterly ashamed of yourself.
Mr Meeks.
Not at all,this forum is a small middle-class bubble .
The word that offends you and others on here is used regular out there and if the referendum is not respected,you will hear more of it.
Brexit is in a fearful mess. At no stage have Leavers of any stripe stopped to ask themselves to what extent they are responsible for that mess. Their inability ever to confront easy clap lines with hard truths is a large part of it.0 -
I suggest you change your friends...TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
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SO24 debate begins, mover Starmer0
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Is that Diane Abbott in the bottom right?Slackbladder said:
Mindbleach pls...TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
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It looks like some sort of revolutionary Socialist mural. Presumably, the woman in the centre symbolises the Labour Party, nourishing the country with her breasts.TrèsDifficile said:Just seen this on facebook.. Very strange
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"You're all fired!!!"Scott_P said:0 -
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