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No deal it isn’t?TheScreamingEagles said:
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All over the placeScott_P said:0 -
Why don't Corbyn and May swap places for a week? All the rest of MPs stay as they are.
Corbyn gives the ERG what they want: No Deal and chaos. He gets what he wants: Brexit, but Tories to blame.
May gets to oppose Brexit from the Labour front bench, and also has a rest for a week.0 -
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?0 -
They had to have a meeting to work out how to make sure they could back it without it leading anywhere.Scott_P said:0 -
Why should he? No deal is the only ideologically coherent and morally valid outcome at this point.FrancisUrquhart said:
When will all the cultists start to believe that perhaps Jezza isn't doing everything possible to stop Brexit?Scott_P said:0 -
Coup against Corbyn.....Gallowgate said:
Fantastic media management.Scott_P said:0 -
Blimey. BBC make a good decision over politics coverage. Been a while:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/11083072104788008970 -
Personally I see the current crisis as inherently the same as the referendum. The powerful, educated and metropolitan supprt remain in greater numbers, and this is generally the make up of our media, political class and civil service. They are now having to enact something they are deeply unhappy with and this is why May kicks the can down the road, the only overwhelming majority is for no deal, and a significant number of MPs believe the way to enact leaving the EU is to have another referendum which they hope remain would win.stodge said:
As the Spiegel article so accurately pointed out, May is a creature of the Party - indeed, the Party and the Union matter to her more than almost anything else and to be the PM who lost one or both would be the ultimate tragedy so everything that has happened since 23/6/16 has been predicated on holding together the sack of cats known as the Conservative Party and the Union.Nemtynakht said:
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Henry IV supposedly claimed Paris was worth a mass. He forsook his own religious birthright to keep France united and at peace. Is the unity of the Conservative Party worth us all going over the edge? As HYUFD pointed out when I raised this with him, the Conservative Party spent the better part of a quarter of a century in opposition in the mid 19th Century but returned to power in time.
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.0 -
When they voted down Brexit for the second time. It did go from "politicians are idiots" to "Tory MPs are idiots". I think that's been clear for a while.Scott_P said:0 -
Define wellPhilip_Thompson said:
We only had to wipe our arses with dock leaves for 12 weeks?0 -
Why don't they just shut him in his office with a load of books about the Jordan Valley and Gollum heights and get on with it?MarqueeMark said:
Coup against Corbyn.....Gallowgate said:
Fantastic media management.Scott_P said:0 -
The Tories have a meeting every time Tin Ear has a letter to writewilliamglenn said:
They had to have a meeting to work out how to make sure they could back it without it leading anywhere.Scott_P said:0 -
Akin to after 'Black Wednesday' where the country entered a surprisingly strong period of growth.bigjohnowls said:
Define wellPhilip_Thompson said:
We only had to wipe our arses with dock leaves for 12 weeks?
It wouldn't surprise me at all if growth increases following a No Deal Brexit. Or any other scenario. It is the uncertainty that is putting so much on hold at the minute.0 -
TBH I think the Labour leadership got this right first time. This is not a precedent that people aspiring to lead the country would want set.Big_G_NorthWales said:
All over the placeScott_P said:0 -
Brexitter
=======
New words by Sunil, original "Bedsitter" music by Almond & Ball.
Friday morning going slow
I'm watching the election show
Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor
Memories of the night before
Out knocking up and having fun
Now I've stopped reading The Sun
Waiting for the results to show
But why I voted no one knows
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
I think it's time to write a thread
To vent the bemusement in my head
Spent my money on online bookies
Got nowt here but all the cookies
Clean my suit and my rosette
Election promises to forget
Start campaigning all over again
Kid myself I'm having fun
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Looking out from my worldview
I've really nothing else to do
Seems like I have started fretting
Let's read Political Betting
Forget The Mirror and The Times
The battle bus with such great lines
Look around and I can see
A thousand punters just like me
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
(I'm waiting for Brexit
Or am I wasting time)0 -
That may well be true, but the problem at the heart of that analysis and this whole circus is that the things people are unhappy about WILL NOT BE SOLVED BY BREXIT!!!Nemtynakht said:Personally I see the current crisis as inherently the same as the referendum. The powerful, educated and metropolitan supprt remain in greater numbers, and this is generally the make up of our media, political class and civil service. They are now having to enact something they are deeply unhappy with and this is why May kicks the can down the road, the only overwhelming majority is for no deal, and a significant number of MPs believe the way to enact leaving the EU is to have another referendum which they hope remain would win.
In reality and as pointed out by John Curtice yesterday People have not really changed your mind, even if you think that polls that predicted a remain win are now accurately Leavers.
If politicians had been honest with the public about the issues, and the EU, we would not be in this mess right now.0 -
When does May travel to Brussels?0
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If you wait 5 minutes there'll be a tweet come along telling you the exact opposite of the last tweet you just read.0
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On that, I have to agree with your analysis Mr. Owls.bigjohnowls said:
Shit Tory BREXIT or Shit Tory crash out!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Its like Jezza isn't very pro-EU and thinks the only way he can enact his socialist utopia is after a no-deal crash out.Gallowgate said:
It doesn’t have anything to do with a 2nd ref. If Labour want a GE and a renegotiation as per their mythical policy, a long extension is required.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does indicate that opposition to a second referendum in labour mps is much larger than perceivedGallowgate said:And @bigjohnowls says Corbyn cannot be blamed in any way.
They are facilitating no deal!!!
Imagine where your favoured party would be if you had a decent leader. Blair or even Brown would have been destroying the government if either were LoTO. They would have a 20 point lead in the polls. Where is Mr Thicko though? He can't even convince the electorate that he is a better potential PM than Theresa May FFS!! It would be laughable were it not so tragic for the country.0 -
VONC is not Parliament's only option. An a VONC does not necessarily lead to an election.Philip_Thompson said:
So be it. If Parliament isn't happy with the Government it retains the ability to VONC the government and we go to an election.AlastairMeeks said:
Theresa May sought a mandate to crush the saboteurs. After careful reflection the public decided not to give her that. With opposition to the referendum result now consistently ahead of Leave, I’m very doubtful that a fresh election would produce the result you crave. You have to deal with the world as it is, not as you would wish it to be.kjohnw said:
Yes and in 2017 both main parties who took 80% of the vote promised to enact the 2016 result. They have both failed to honour the people’s instructions they promised to in the manifestosAlastairMeeks said:
The last general election took place in 2017. Democracy did not stop in 2016.kjohnw said:
When parliament ignores the will of the people expressed in a referendum given by parliament then parliament is in contempt of the people . This parliament needs to be dissolved and a new parliament needs to be elected by the people to carry out there clear instructions given in 2016AlastairMeeks said:
So you do want the government to ignore Parliament? So you do want to destroy Parliamentary sovereignty?Philip_Thompson said:
Since the government is trying to find ways to honour the instruction given to it by the people and this Parliament is not, yes I do object.AlastairMeeks said:Then you will have no objection to this Parliament finding ways to hold this government to account when it wilfully disregards the instructions given to it.
Make your mind up. The principle is not contingent on whether you like Parliament’s instructions.0 -
True; maybe Mandelson's mortgages would be a better example from that era, but somehow don't feel as institutional.DecrepitJohnL said:
That is not the right distinction. Ecclestone was a different class of corruption but in the sense that it did not involve personal enrichment of MPs, as opposed to, for instance, cash for questions that preceded it and expenses that followed. Millionaire donors had been around almost forever, especially on the Tory side, without exciting comment let alone revolution.mwadams said:
I think it started with Bernie Ecclestone affair, and the renewed sense that politicians could get away with a whole new class of corruption if the press felt they were "the good guys".Alanbrooke said:
I rather think MPs have brought this on themselvesAlastairMeeks said:
Yes, the nihilism of Leavers has been mortally successful.Sean_F said:
MP's currently have a favorability rating of 5%, so the answer is plain.AlastairMeeks said:
Parliament instructed it to seek a long delay if the meaningful vote were not passed by now. The Deputy Prime Minister averred the same last week. Or do Leavers now hold Parliament in contempt along with every other civic institution?Philip_Thompson said:
The government's mandate is to leave the EU. Parliament is the one wilfully disregarding that.AlastairMeeks said:
When the government so wilfully disregards its own mandate and even its own word, Parliament must find a way to find its voice.Philip_Thompson said:
Starting with the expenses scandal 10 years ago its been all downhill ever since
I suppose the key with the expenses is that this is something that was 100% normalized, that, when the public found out, was a total catastrophe for all sides. The public were wholly, if only peripherally, aware of the corruption inherent in big donors.0 -
Cant we Revoke her PassportGallowgate said:When does May travel to Brussels?
Surely nobody in the EU believes a word she says0 -
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?0 -
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its ownDecrepitJohnL said:
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.Alanbrooke said:
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.DecrepitJohnL said:
That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.Alanbrooke said:
I see precious little evidence that an extension will give you the strategy you would want without some major change in the make up of Parliament probably via a GE and I dont yet see an appetitie for that.Cyclefree said:
No. But that is why we need a Pause while we think about what our European strategy should be - as I have repeatedly bored on in comments below the line and headers above it.Alanbrooke said:
and you think remainers have a plan for remaining ?
Parliament is both blocked internally and at odds with its own electorate. Imo there is no more chance of developing a common view in 12 months time than there is in 12 days time,
Neither Leave or Remain has a plan for the coming 9 days let alone the medium to long term.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?0 -
By getting only four more seats than Gordon did in 2010?bigjohnowls said:
GE2017 was called by Corbyn?Gallowgate said:And @bigjohnowls says Corbyn cannot be blamed in any way.
Oh you mean he did too well at GE2017
By still having a 55-seat deficit behind the Tories?
That kind of "well"?
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Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****0 -
I thought Bercow had ruled out a 3rd vote, or does SO 24 trump that?rottenborough said:0 -
McD now saying Labour just want a 3 month delay.CarlottaVance said:0 -
What BS is that....if the sun doesn't rise tomorrow morning, I am going to call for a revolution...CarlottaVance said:0 -
https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1108318825412472832
So labour just want to damage the government rather than change anything...
Oh Jesus Christ....someone rescue us from this f**king nightmare...
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Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.Scott_P said:
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.0 -
It would be interesting for a commission to have enumerated those distinctions, though. Here are the ways in which we are defining our "sovereignty", and the ways in which they could be constrained pre-post Brexit, these are the ways in which we are defining economic impact, and the range of views... Rather than the vague mudslinging in the press. We could have spent a few years doing that, then put the proposals to a referendum.Alanbrooke said:
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
But that is not what happened.0 -
Why on Earth should the hardliners back the EU's stated wish? The EU's stated wish is for us not to leave. The hardliners stated wish is for us to leave and that's what the public voted for. Nor do the hardliners want the EU to "gain" anything.Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
If Parliament wants to prevent no deal there is a very easy and quick option waiting to be ratified. If not we can go to no deal quite quickly. Either way there's nothing to gain from a long delay.0 -
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****0 -
when are people going to work out that labours aim is to force a hard brexit, tories get the blame for it, and then Corbyn hs free reign to make changes when he's PM which he can't when part of the EU.
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The Left do enjoy a good discussion. How about a bit of demo as well? Maybe a few SWP posters and some young fogeys selling Morning Star.Philip_Thompson said:
That'll do it.0 -
Considering May has done what Corbyn called for yesterday, why would he want anything changing?Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1108318825412472832
So labour just want to damage the government rather than change anything...
Oh Jesus Christ....someone rescue us from this f**king nightmare...0 -
I agree with the first part but you are also not dealing with reality only a third of the polls ahead of the referendums had leave ahead - we cannot be certain about future results but we should enact the last result.AlastairMeeks said:
Theresa May sought a mandate to crush the saboteurs. After careful reflection the public decided not to give her that. With opposition to the referendum result now consistently ahead of Leave, I’m very doubtful that a fresh election would produce the result you crave. You have to deal with the world as it is, not as you would wish it to be.kjohnw said:
Yes and in 2017 both main parties who took 80% of the vote promised to enact the 2016 result. They have both failed to honour the people’s instructions they promised to in the manifestosAlastairMeeks said:
The last general election took place in 2017. Democracy did not stop in 2016.kjohnw said:
When parliament ignores the will of the people expressed in a referendum given by parliament then parliament is in contempt of the people . This parliament needs to be dissolved and a new parliament needs to be elected by the people to carry out there clear instructions given in 2016AlastairMeeks said:
So you do want the government to ignore Parliament? So you do want to destroy Parliamentary sovereignty?Philip_Thompson said:
Since the government is trying to find ways to honour the instruction given to it by the people and this Parliament is not, yes I do object.AlastairMeeks said:Then you will have no objection to this Parliament finding ways to hold this government to account when it wilfully disregards the instructions given to it.
Make your mind up. The principle is not contingent on whether you like Parliament’s instructions.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close
If you then want to start a rejoin the EU campaign then go ahead0 -
Why would the EU want a long delay? That means more faffing around. Surely, it's better to say piss or get off the pot?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****0 -
yesmwadams said:
It would be interesting for a commission to have enumerated those distinctions, though. Here are the ways in which we are defining our "sovereignty", and the ways in which they could be constrained pre-post Brexit, these are the ways in which we are defining economic impact, and the range of views... Rather than the vague mudslinging in the press. We could have spent a few years doing that, then put the proposals to a referendum.Alanbrooke said:
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
But that is not what happened.
the time for a commission was pre the referendum but Cameron and Osborne explicitly ruled that out along with any preparation for what a leave vote might mean0 -
And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....MaxPB said:
When they voted down Brexit for the second time. It did go from "politicians are idiots" to "Tory MPs are idiots". I think that's been clear for a while.Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed. At least the ERG were open and honest about seeking no deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
I have no sympathy for any crocodile tears coming from the SNP, LibDems and Labour who pretend to oppose no deal while rejecting the only deal the EU is willing to offer.0 -
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****0 -
That's fair. They also opposed A50 invocation.Richard_Tyndall said:
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
Though there is somewhat an irony in the SNP saying an independence referendum can be ignored or reversed.0 -
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.MarqueeMark said:And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
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I take the point (and the same goes for most of the LibDems), but the fact still remains that they are facilitating exactly what they claim is the most unacceptable option, starting from where we are now.Richard_Tyndall said:
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
But yes, it's Labour who are the cynical ones here.0 -
Lib Dems, too. They've opposed Brexit since 2015, albeit previously they favoured a referendum.Richard_Tyndall said:
The SNP are in no way guilty in this. Their position from the start was to oppose Brexit after their country voted against it by a hefty majority. I have no idea whether they would have continued to follow the wishes of their electorate had the Scottish vote gone Leave but they have been utterly consistent and open about their position to date. I see nothing to criticise them over on Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was with you to the last sentence, but can you explain why this is any more the fault of 'the Tories' rather than the SNP, LibDems, and Labour who teamed up with the ERG to pursue their goal of crashing out with no deal?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****0 -
My reading of the situation is that the ERG believe their dream of No Deal is closer than ever before.Sean_F said:
Why would the EU want a long delay? That means more faffing around. Surely, it's better to say piss or get off the pot?Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****0 -
Is the pub open yet? 17 pints and a bag of nuts will provide suitable distraction against Brexit0
-
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.0 -
That would be for the commission. We do not want neutrality: it should be stuffed with leavers. The problem with Brexit is the Leavers never, and still have not, settled around an agreed destination or route map. That is why I mentioned Davis wanting to deal directly with Germany without realising this would need Germany to act illegally. Those are the unicorns that must be slain. Look at where we are now: May's deal and no deal are both Brexits but clearly not the same.Alanbrooke said:
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its ownDecrepitJohnL said:
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.Alanbrooke said:
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.DecrepitJohnL said:That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?0 -
We are exceptional, on a multitude of measures.williamglenn said:
Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.Scott_P said:
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.
If you don't think Britain is exceptional you don't understand or believe in it.0 -
I think it depends on whether or not he thinks it favours Remain.Sean_F said:
I thought Bercow had ruled out a 3rd vote, or does SO 24 trump that?rottenborough said:0 -
There will be some regulars in Wetherspoons who are already well on their way to that consumption.RochdalePioneers said:Is the pub open yet? 17 pints and a bag of nuts will provide suitable distraction against Brexit
0 -
Indeed and if it isn't tanking then we won't.Freggles said:
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
So worst case we end up back where they're already proposing to put us (with the backstop etc) and best case we don't. Seems like it could be worth a punt.0 -
I'm sorry but that Germany claim is garbage. Germany is a major power within the EU and shapes the EU's business. Yes we wouldn't get a deal uniquely with Germany but getting Germany on side at the start would have made the negotiations go a lot smoother.DecrepitJohnL said:
That would be for the commission. We do not want neutrality: it should be stuffed with leavers. The problem with Brexit is the Leavers never, and still have not, settled around an agreed destination or route map. That is why I mentioned Davis wanting to deal directly with Germany without realising this would need Germany to act illegally. Those are the unicorns that must be slain. Look at where we are now: May's deal and no deal are both Brexits but clearly not the same.Alanbrooke said:
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its ownDecrepitJohnL said:
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.Alanbrooke said:
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.DecrepitJohnL said:That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?0 -
Except the worst case includes companies going bust.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and if it isn't tanking then we won't.Freggles said:
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
So worst case we end up back where they're already proposing to put us (with the backstop etc) and best case we don't. Seems like it could be worth a punt.
And the EU having us even more over a barrel.0 -
Also, if you accuse Britain of being more exceptionalist than other countries, you got yourself a lovely little paradox.Casino_Royale said:
We are exceptional, on a multitude of measures.williamglenn said:
Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.Scott_P said:
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.
If you don't think Britain is exceptional you don't understand or believe in it.0 -
Yes, unless there is a Brexit deal that is moving along by the locals, then those poor councillors will be proxies for giving the MPs a kick up the jacksie. In turn, a dress rehearsal for the next General.stodge said:
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.MarqueeMark said:And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
0 -
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.Freggles said:If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.0 -
Well, except the WA would be meaningless and we'd go straight to the FTA (and a prolonged ratification process).TheScreamingEagles said:
Ireland no doubt would feature again, but it'd be about a permanent solution that both the UK and Eire would be striving for as it'd be an improvement on the (then) status quo.0 -
Of course an approaching election will crystallize annoyance into a desire to kick someone, and the government will always take precedence fir that kicking when everyone is an idiot.stodge said:
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.MarqueeMark said:And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens0 -
That's going to be true of any trade deal anyway. So we will end up there anyway.Richard_Nabavi said:
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.Freggles said:If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.0 -
FTFY. Everyone will believe it applies to someone else. To ERGers it will be the Remainers fault, to loyalists it will be the ERGers fault. Nobody is going to look in the mirror and say "I'm the problem here".Casino_Royale said:0 -
They wouldn't, because it isn't the 1990s any more.Nigel_Foremain said:
On that, I have to agree with your analysis Mr. Owls.bigjohnowls said:
Shit Tory BREXIT or Shit Tory crash out!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Its like Jezza isn't very pro-EU and thinks the only way he can enact his socialist utopia is after a no-deal crash out.Gallowgate said:
It doesn’t have anything to do with a 2nd ref. If Labour want a GE and a renegotiation as per their mythical policy, a long extension is required.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It does indicate that opposition to a second referendum in labour mps is much larger than perceivedGallowgate said:And @bigjohnowls says Corbyn cannot be blamed in any way.
They are facilitating no deal!!!
Imagine where your favoured party would be if you had a decent leader. Blair or even Brown would have been destroying the government if either were LoTO. They would have a 20 point lead in the polls. Where is Mr Thicko though? He can't even convince the electorate that he is a better potential PM than Theresa May FFS!! It would be laughable were it not so tragic for the country.
They'd have a lead, sure, but it'd be more like a 43-44% to 35-36% one.0 -
Whether we exit under A50 or not the trade talks are all by unanimity with all the veto issues you mention. It is only the WA that is by QMV.Richard_Nabavi said:
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.Freggles said:If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.0 -
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?0 -
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.williamglenn said:
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?Casino_Royale said:The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.0 -
-
No, there's a huge difference. If we leave with the withdrawal deal, we have two years or more to sort out the trade agreement with little disruption in the meantime. If we crash out in chaos, with businesses going bust, sheep being slaughtered in the Welsh hills, fishermen unable to land their catches in the EU, confusion and delays at the ports, and no doubt lots of other disasters which haven't yet even been fully recognised, we'll be desperately trying to scrabble back some of the lost ground from an incredibly weak position. It's hard to imagine a more disastrous self-inflicted wound.Philip_Thompson said:
That's going to be true of any trade deal anyway. So we will end up there anyway.Richard_Nabavi said:
There would also be a really big issue with the legal mechanics. We'd no longer be working under the Article 50 provision of agreeing the withdrawal agreement with the Council of Ministers. Instead we'd be a third-party country having to set up an entirely new treaty with formal ratification by all of the 27, including all the complications of approval by the Walloons and all that stuff.Freggles said:If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.
We really, really shouldn't want to go there. But we might.0 -
No-one will say "I'm the problem here" but it definitively applies to the ERG hardcore of c.70-90 MPs, the old bastards, and the dozen or so (sometimes less) of the New Bastards. The behaviour of the DUP isn't impressive, but nor is it surprising and they are a separate party.Philip_Thompson said:
FTFY. Everyone will believe it applies to someone else. To ERGers it will be the Remainers fault, to loyalists it will be the ERGers fault. Nobody is going to look in the mirror and say "I'm the problem here".Casino_Royale said:
Every vote counts in a hung parliament.0 -
The Conservatives are bound to lose seats, as they were 6% ahead, in 2015, when they were last contested. However, losses will be limited by the fact that most seats being contested will be in Leave-voting districts.dyedwoolie said:
Of course an approaching election will crystallize annoyance into a desire to kick someone, and the government will always take precedence fir that kicking when everyone is an idiot.stodge said:
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.MarqueeMark said:And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens0 -
Since Davis was the Secretary of State, we can see how things worked out. Germany declined to act illegally or get on side at the start.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm sorry but that Germany claim is garbage. Germany is a major power within the EU and shapes the EU's business. Yes we wouldn't get a deal uniquely with Germany but getting Germany on side at the start would have made the negotiations go a lot smoother.DecrepitJohnL said:
That would be for the commission. We do not want neutrality: it should be stuffed with leavers. The problem with Brexit is the Leavers never, and still have not, settled around an agreed destination or route map. That is why I mentioned Davis wanting to deal directly with Germany without realising this would need Germany to act illegally. Those are the unicorns that must be slain. Look at where we are now: May's deal and no deal are both Brexits but clearly not the same.Alanbrooke said:
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its ownDecrepitJohnL said:
A commission would establish a reified Brexit as opposed to 15 million distinct unicorns. It would establish what would be the consequences of Norway or Canada or WTO, with or without any of the pluses MPs like to add to their own favoured variants. JRM tells us Britain would be hundreds of billions of pounds better off. He may be right. Where is this nirvana and how do we get from here to there? That's the point of the commission. Otherwise we'd be voting on the basis of, as David Davis told us, Germany acting illegally in order to sign a deal with Britain.Alanbrooke said:
And what will a commission achieve ? Commissions are currently establisment code for looking like doing something while actually doing nothing.DecrepitJohnL said:That is why there must be a commission rather than hoping for a coherent view to emerge by chance. A general election might well produce a majority for one course or another but probably not a plausible path to a desirable end state.
I voted Leave because I dont trust UK politicians over Europe. I trust Juncker and co more because they say upfront what their aims are and are totally clear about it - its ever closer Union. UK MPs pretending it isnt while hoping to finesse us in to the Union without consulting the electorate has been the norm for the last 2 decades. Current shenanigans in the HoC simply highlight the truth of the matter.
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?0 -
Yes it will. The EU will have no way to compel us to pay that money if there's no agreement. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. They'll still morally think we owe them it, but legally it will take an agreement - a deal if you will - to get that money from us.DecrepitJohnL said:
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?0 -
1922 tonight.
Is this the point she has to offer to leave within weeks in order to get MV3 through next week?0 -
I don't think it's delusional to point out that Britain occupies a place of more significance than a "typical" country of 65 million people in the world, and packs more punch than Italy and still more than France whether inside or outside the EU. I'd say Germany is clearly the strongest and most economically influential in the EU but that doesn't mean it is on the world stage.Ishmael_Z said:
Also, if you accuse Britain of being more exceptionalist than other countries, you got yourself a lovely little paradox.Casino_Royale said:
We are exceptional, on a multitude of measures.williamglenn said:
Mr Cameron says he is teaching his own children that Britain is “special” and should belong to international organisations in order to “shape the world’s future as well as its past”.Scott_P said:
“I think the world I want my children to grow up in is [one] where there’s a big, bold, brave Britain at the heart of these institutions"
It's not just Brexiteers prone to exceptionalism.
If you don't think Britain is exceptional you don't understand or believe in it.
That doesn't mean the UK is still a superpower, on the equivalent level with the USA or China, where I grant you some still believe we have a right to be - that ended with the Empire - but we are still more than just a regional European player.
Much more.0 -
Like our Parliamentarians the EU is a Poker player going All In.Casino_Royale said:
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.williamglenn said:
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?Casino_Royale said:The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.
Worst case scenario for EU zealots is the UK exits without a deal and it proves not only not to be a disaster but to be a success instead. That would really put a rocket booster under sceptics across the continent. If we exit without a deal the EU kind of needs us to fail.0 -
and dont forget the four horsemen leaping from the Yellowstone caldera as soon as we leaveFreggles said:
If our economy is tanking (clue: everyone thinks it will) we will be desperate and they will know it.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
We would have to agree to backstop, at least £39 billion and probably throw in Gibraltar for their troubles.0 -
I utterly fail to see how an extention of a few months solves anything at all...what changes??0
-
It's possible to reflect on why the UK voted to leave and come to the conclusion that indulging our political class with opt-outs and special treatment, and helping them dissemble about the EU to their voters was a large part of the problem.Casino_Royale said:
No, it's reinforced the EU's existing prejudices rather than challenged them.williamglenn said:
Wouldn't it be more true to say that the EU has learnt different lessons from the ones you wanted it to?Casino_Royale said:The EU has learnt nothing from the process either.
It believes it has, and is, making an example of the UK, teaching it a lesson, and discouraging others to its benefit as a whole.
I see zero evidence it's done any reflection on why the UK voted to Leave, and how the EU might need to respond to avoid such calamity in future, other than the reflexive dogmatic response of More Europe.0 -
Jean Claude Juncker leaves officeSlackbladder said:I utterly fail to see how an extention of a few months solves anything at all...what changes??
thats about it0 -
Sure but if we are 'in delay' will there not be a mass vote against as s 'fail and this is what you get' thing?Sean_F said:
The Conservatives are bound to lose seats, as they were 6% ahead, in 2015, when they were last contested. However, losses will be limited by the fact that most seats being contested will be in Leave-voting districts.dyedwoolie said:
Of course an approaching election will crystallize annoyance into a desire to kick someone, and the government will always take precedence fir that kicking when everyone is an idiot.stodge said:
There is a residual sense of sympathy or pity for the Prime Minister but as has been noted downthread, the public mood seems to be shifting away from "it's everyone's fault" to the specific "it's the Conservative Government's fault" and we are 6 weeks away from a huge round of local elections where the Conservatives are defending 5,000 seats.MarqueeMark said:And this is the only reason that Theresa there-isn't-a-word-in-English-to-express-her-abjectness May is still polling ahead of each of Labour, Corbyn and the Conservatives. She is seen to be wading through their tide of shit. A tide into which they continue to defacate....
May 2 will be a bloodbath whatever happens0 -
Since Davis was the Secretary of State, we can see how things worked out. Germany declined to act illegally or get on side at the start.DecrepitJohnL said:I'm sorry but that Germany claim is garbage. Germany is a major power within the EU and shapes the EU's business. Yes we wouldn't get a deal uniquely with Germany but getting Germany on side at the start would have made the negotiations go a lot smoother.
He was Secretary of State but he was also powerless and impotent. May called the shots and undermined him from the start.
Getting Germany on side would not have been illegal.0 -
I don't see Lab doing well on 2nd May either FWIW
The electorate are angry with both main parties if my Canvassing is anything to go by.0 -
Quite. As we gaze with horror at the stagnant pond life of the current parliament, we should never forget their evolutionary ancestors.Alanbrooke said:
yesmwadams said:
It would be interesting for a commission to have enumerated those distinctions, though. Here are the ways in which we are defining our "sovereignty", and the ways in which they could be constrained pre-post Brexit, these are the ways in which we are defining economic impact, and the range of views... Rather than the vague mudslinging in the press. We could have spent a few years doing that, then put the proposals to a referendum.Alanbrooke said:
I think thats a spot of unicorn farming on its own
You will struggle to find a neutral party to run a commission - minds are now made up and entrenched - and a mixed commission will have the same mexican standoff as Parliament.
Worse what actually are the issues ? Remainers are all about their wallets and Leavers are all about a more abstract sovereignty - which gets priority ?
But that is not what happened.
the time for a commission was pre the referendum but Cameron and Osborne explicitly ruled that out along with any preparation for what a leave vote might mean0 -
Not before November 2019Alanbrooke said:
Jean Claude Juncker leaves officeSlackbladder said:I utterly fail to see how an extention of a few months solves anything at all...what changes??
thats about it0 -
So who benefits then ?bigjohnowls said:I don't see Lab doing well on 2nd May either FWIW
The electorate are angry with both main parties if my Canvassing is anything to go by.0 -
Those represent our existing commitments, though. If we start reneging on our international commitments, that's going to make future deal making "interesting".Philip_Thompson said:
Yes it will. The EU will have no way to compel us to pay that money if there's no agreement. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. They'll still morally think we owe them it, but legally it will take an agreement - a deal if you will - to get that money from us.DecrepitJohnL said:
No because crashing out with no deal will not magically remove our commitments on the £39 billion.Philip_Thompson said:
Precisely. If we go to No Deal the EU will very rapidly want to talk about a trade deal as they won't be getting a penny of their £39 billion (which we would still agree to pay as part of the negotiations but now have as leverege) plus the Irish border will be their problem rather than ours.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?0 -
God knows.Martin_Kinsella said:
So who benefits then ?bigjohnowls said:I don't see Lab doing well on 2nd May either FWIW
The electorate are angry with both main parties if my Canvassing is anything to go by.
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youre right, so even less point in extendingBig_G_NorthWales said:
Not before November 2019Alanbrooke said:
Jean Claude Juncker leaves officeSlackbladder said:I utterly fail to see how an extention of a few months solves anything at all...what changes??
thats about it0 -
Nothing, it's a stupid position and I wouldn't be surprised if the Commission came back and told the PM to fuck off and come back with something realistic. A short extension only makes sense if the WA makes it through Parliament.Slackbladder said:I utterly fail to see how an extention of a few months solves anything at all...what changes??
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Interesting commm
For the avoidance of doubt, that's as funny as herpes.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Article on the state and future of UK Defence. Mr WIlliamson does not emerge unscathed, but perhaps better than you might expect.
https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/03/20/gavin-williamson-and-defence/content.html?sig=UEhlwOM0W9jaTpl3DLdHebugBdZemTcKbr96uCCKmXw
I liked this:
In the early 1990s the government used to boast that the country was “punching above its weight”. This can sound quite clever until you get into a real fight, and someone punches you back.0 -
Spot on !Philip_Thompson said:
Why on Earth should the hardliners back the EU's stated wish? The EU's stated wish is for us not to leave. The hardliners stated wish is for us to leave and that's what the public voted for. Nor do the hardliners want the EU to "gain" anything.Cicero said:
Certainly a non trivial risk that the EU says no and that we are out without a deal effective in 9 days.GIN1138 said:
I didn't think we'd even got on to the trade deal yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
And a trade deal from the starting point of NO DEAL wouldn't need a withdrawal agreement (as there's nothing to withdraw from) ?
Utterly irresponsible of the the hard liners to go against the stated wish of the EU for a longer period. The general view in EU capitals is that a short delay still leads to no deal and there is nothing to be gained unless the UK asks for a longer period.
So unless the UK gets real then the ERG get their dream of a no deal on or shortly after 29th March after maybe a minimal fig leaf delay, but the crash out still happens and the UK economy tanks for a year or two while an emergency plan is drawn up.
Have a good summer, Tories. You utter shower of ****
If Parliament wants to prevent no deal there is a very easy and quick option waiting to be ratified. If not we can go to no deal quite quickly. Either way there's nothing to gain from a long delay.0
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