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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is doing so again
“Oh what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive.”
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We're just back from Germany for a family funeral. What struck me was that Brexit was covered on TV, but not on the news, only on the comedy programmes. (With one exception - the Germans couldn't get enough of John Bercow on Monday) Germany can't believe how we would trigger A50 with all its consequences and be unable to articulate anything that we actually want, so we've had the pleasure of sketches such as 'Britain goes shopping' and 'Britain goes on holiday' and you'll guess the punchlines a long way off.
Personally I've just had it with May; she is so inflexible that even now it's Gvt policy to ask for an extension, actually doing so seems totally beyond her. Zero flexibility and salesmanship. I can't help thinking that even in the short term, she should let someone with more energy and vision take the reins as she looks like a rabbit in the headlights at the moment.
If I was the EU, I would combine Cyclefree's 3 points above (General Election / renegotiate with different red lines / 2nd ref) and the offer would be that the UK only gets an extension by the Gvt committing to one of these 3. The UK's choice and they don't have to decide which straight away. But actually force Theresa May to commit to something that will get towards a conclusion, rather than recycling the Meaningful Vote for yet another appearance.
Anyway, enough for one night. Sleep well anyone else on the late shift.
rcs1000 posted a great link in the run up to the referendum by a Nobel Physicist who argued that over time the British constitution has developed a series of checks & balances and 'error control' where mistakes, when they inevitably happen get put right - via parliament or the courts (common law).
Most of Europe - and the EU, (which is still very young, so hasn't had much opportunity to do this) - have much more limited experience with democracy and a different legal tradition. Its greatest strength - the Treaties to hold the whole thing together - are also its greatest weakness - limited to no flexibility.
We've seen this in the negotiation, after a fashion - Britain 'lets bodge a deal' - EU 'These are the rules. Full stop.'
It's not a case of 'right or wrong' (and goodness knows the British could have done a much better job drafting things rather than leaving it to the EU), but of different approaches and world views. Should we expect them to give up theirs? Of course not. Should we give up ours? Why? Leave were not alone in setting out a dishonest prospectus - Remain's "status quo" was never and will never be on offer.
Staying in won't change that - and as Mr Verhofstadt has argued there needs to be a "two speed' Europe - Full membership (Euro, fiscal transfers etc etc) and Associated Members (which is as far as we'd ever get.) If that is their future then we might be better friends to stand aside and let them get on with it rather than acting as a turbulent and truculent sheet anchor on their ambitions.
The times you're seeing "These are the rules. Full stop" are the times when a single member state is voting that it wants all the other countries to do something for it, with nothing much in return. That's what happened with the Greeks, who wanted Germans and Finns to pay for their pensions, and the Swiss, who wanted to rip up the free movement "quid" of their existing agreement with the EU without any particular "pro quo", and the British, who wanted... well, what the British wanted is complicated.
The only reason these things are even discussed at all is because they get domestic popular mandates from the countries that want them. It's easy to get these mandates if you can persuade your government to call a vote on them, because the campaigns for them only need to involve the wishes of one side of the negotiation, but obviously once you do they're impossible to deliver, because the votes of voters in one country don't bind the governments of the other 27.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/19/tory-mps-vow-to-quit-party-if-boris-johnson-becomes-leader
Hold my pint says the Tory membership. Lets put the clown prince in charge.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8675691/mps-vote-theresa-mays-deal-brexit-slipping-hardliners-chasing-fantasy/
Off topic, as long as the police have time to investigate this sort of thing, I'll have no sympathy for those saying we need more police:
https://tinyurl.com/y2thrv25
A devout Catholic and mother of five has been asked to attend a police interview after being accused of using the wrong pronoun to describe a transgender girl.
Caroline Farrow was contacted by officers from the Surrey force to inform her they were investigating an allegation that she had made transphobic comments on Twitter.
Mrs Farrow is being investigated for a possible hate crime under the malicious communication act, an offence that carries a maximum two-year prison sentence.
Predictions of the imminent collapse of the Eurozone and/or the EU are a Faragist delusion. Both look likely to significantly outlast the United Kingdom as political structures
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928?s=21
#noussommesDavidDavis
https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1108070326443880448
Have James Kanagasooria & AlanBrooke ever been seen in the same room?
The irony is that it is a mixture of rabid Leavers who want to leave with no deal to inflict maximum damage on the EU, and equally rabid Remainers who are overwhelmingly arrogant and self righteous and think we will revoke it we get this far, who have driven us to it.
But sadly given the circumstances it isn't funny. The damage to just about everything will be substantial.
And he would still be better than Corbyn.
It’s pathetic.
I think this, the penultimate paragraph is one which we should seriously think about:
"But the real risk may well be that the EU no longer wants Britain back, that what it has seen of Britain – in close up – over the last two years and particularly over the last few months has saddened, angered and infuriated it so much, its patience has been so exhausted, that it would prefer to take the hit of a messy exit rather than accommodate Britain any more, other than on the EU’s own terms.'
We have the situation in which the only thing the British Government appears to agree upon, as representative of us, the people of the UK is that we want 'Out'.
Very well, go and be damned to you! You have resigned; we are therefore happy to act in the interest of our members.
And that is the interests of all our members, including those very close to you.
Apologies for the extra post and self-quote - not what I intended !
Without us, I suspect they will be content to drift serenely from one avoidable mess to the next. Which will not be helpful for anyone.
Have a lovely day.
The comments are full of Brexit voters stating unequivocally that a headbanger in charge would solve all the problems...
Where I slightly disagree with the tone and attitude is that the UK has by no means cornered the market in political stupidity and self delusion. There has been plenty of that on the EU side of the fence as well. This is not good news because it means that we cannot expect the EU to act in a way which we consider self evidently in their interests (German car makers anyone?). They are more than capable of matching our delusions despite the heroic efforts of Westminster.
The lack of understanding is significant, and two-way traffic. Plus the political class have always been more sceptical in opposition whilst pro-EU in office. Constantly giving away vetoes and authority to Brussels without recourse to the electorate for approval was dubious, and promising a referendum then reneging bloody stupid (as well as dishonest).
Of course, the greater share of blame for that, particularly the latter, lies with UK politicians rather than EU bureaucrats. Shade ironic.
I do have some sympathy with the EU over May's endless can-kicking and incompetence, and agree that just a rambling extension for no reason is daft.
1. Going and asking for a “short” extension from a body that was offering one for legislative tidiness once a Deal was agreed. I can’t see it being offered unless MV3 passes by next Fri.
2. Asking Bercow to stop implementing long-standing convention (or “dicking around”, depending on you POV), when it seems unlikely that her motion will materially change (because she’s taking long delay/Ref2/GE off the table).
3. Time to see the whites of the 800+ eyes whose MP owners voted to “take No Deal off the table” last week.
4. Need to explain to wavering “no Deal better than a bad deal” types why they shouldn’t just spring back to anti-Deal, now that long extension is “off the table”.
I appreciate that doesn’t take account of “events, dear boy”, especially last-minute fudgey ones... but even so it’s hard to see a way through that lot, before we even get started on the legislative pitfalls of SIs and laws needed to do anything.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2019-irish-border/
Although bedevilled by a goddam awful parliamentary party, Theresa May has been absolutely dreadful. The worst kind of school headmistress: incapable of listening to others or bringing them on board. At a time when the smooth charm of a Blair or Clinton would have sorted this, we've ended up with a bot.
Nightmare.
It seems to me that the only way to attempt to resolve this sorry mess is to remove Theresa May from the negotiations. Whether that is by removing her as Conservative party leader, removing the Conservative party from office, or just by her supporters acting to arrange for her to take a leave of absence (return of the throat infection?) I am not sure. At this stage whoever is in charge needs to be someone who can rise above the self-deceptions listed in the article above.
I don’t hold out much hope. I think we will end up exiting with no deal on March 29th because nobody can provide the statesmanship to broker a deal that can gain the support of enough people. Relying on the DUP is just wrong. The pork barrel negotiations with a party still linked to terrorism is unedifying.
It seems to be set up against the 'one nation breaking ranks' for outcome
The risk seems to me to be that May's pitch and demands, even, go down so badly, a la Salzburg (was it?), that this turns into Del Boy Trotter's Masonic Lodge application.
I'd rate extension being granted at 75%.
You keep writing this without explaining how the legislature becomes the executive.
The reason May is still in charge is because she does have a strategy. The reason it's going nowhere is because the headbangers on all sides are unwilling to go with it, but equally clueless at coming up with alternatives.
If the EU refuse a short delay, we crash out.
Champers all round at Jacob's house.
I repeat, they need to grow up.
Keep chipping in though. The more voices the better.
If I was running UK I would hold an immediate GE with the main purpose to evict the disruptive headbangers on both sides. Then schedule a referendum for 18 months time - take the first 12 months to properly agree a question - ie revoke or Deal (to be defined) - and then campaign for 6 months. The referendum result to be legally binding and so implemented without further debate.
Next...
One would win, and it would be implemented. Then we could get on with our lives.
But it will never happen. Too many people are trying to avoid making a decision they fear will be unpopular and cost them their seats. They can't see that's happening anyway because of their dithering and dishonesty.
Bollocks.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1108272212547694594
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1108272576353067010
The UK is the happiest country in the world with more than 37 million people (Canada) according to this report.
https://news.sky.com/story/can-you-guess-which-countries-are-the-worlds-happiest-11670427
She's managed to, impressively, achieve a reputation for both changing her mind and being too bloody stubborn. So who knows what she'll actually do?
It's largely a moot point anyway as the political declaration isn't the end-point FTA. It could easily be amended by a future Labour Government that took office this year or next year.
Corbyn simply believes he will profit politically from the chaos.
If she succeeds then it throws the entire constitutional set-up into question.
Britain is not a vassal state and that final sentence is hyperbole that totally fails to recognise what a vassal state actually means.
Will the Government do the sensible thing....any sensible thing? The most sensible thing would be to follow the advice of that beacon of common sense, Kenneth Clarke, and suspend Brexit for five years during which time Leavers could put together a comprehensive and workable plan for exiting the EU. This plan would then be put to the voters in a referendum on the basis that this time they really would know what they are voting for, and it would actually be operable.
The chances of this happening are of course nil. The chances of what you are suggestion are better than nil, but not by much.
I have no idea what happens next. I agree with Alistair Meeks (of this Parish) that from where we are now, there are no good outcomes. I fear the worst.
They will offer us years of extension. Which the entire opposition bar the odd Labour Lexit loon will back. Which enough Tory MPs will back. It will pass. The question then for Theresa is what does she do? If she obeys the will of Parliament and lays out the SIs she will be removed as leader within days. If she refuses the will of parliament there will almost certainly be a confidence vote against the government, but with the ERG hugging her tight she'd win.
OK so we'd crash out with no deal. But she'd remain Tory leader having delivered the will of the people. She'd see a dozen or so MPs defect. But she would carry on. Or, pass the multi-year extension, get removed, and see her party angrily tear itself apart in recriminations as to why Brexit didn't happen.
She will resist until the end. No Deal.
The only thing the DUP and ERG are now contributing to is keeping May in post.
Very good article, but I think the EU is up for one more heave - they are exasperated with May (who isn't?) but not with the British as a whole. Essentially she's going all-in on a tweaked MV3 and they'll give her the chance to try that. It might just work. Will she then resign in ordere to let someone else conduct the next two years of negotiations? Of course not - she'll politely and firmly proceed to vacillate from day to day for the next 2 years.
Failing that, the obvious option is permanent customs union, which has a clear majority in Parliament plus complete acceptance by the EU plus the essence of a solution to the Nortern Ireland border. It'll get a majority on an indicative vote this week. Why hasn't it happened? (a) because it's Remain minus, so nobody is really keen and (b) Mrs May declines to consider it. Problem (b) will be resolved if MV3 fails - Bercow won't allow an MV4 and she will be forced out one way or another.
I'm warming to the idea of a 2nd ratification referendum to endorse or reject this, just to bring it to a head/end, as I don't expect a GE to be decisive, there would be a majority for one, and our MPs couldn't vote to find a way out of a paper bag.
It would need to be on near identical conditions to the last one with the same electorate to ensure it was perceived as fair.
Fact - at this moment in time the UK has no control over its future economic and security relationships with the EU, and thereby with the rest of the world. We are entirely dependent on the goodwill of 27 other nations, any of whom could deny our elected leader her principle objective.
“Siri - show me what a vassal state looks like.”