politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brex
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How will it lead to a PM Corbyn renegotiating? If there's an election called after 14 days we'd already have left still.HYUFD said:
If it leads to PM Corbyn of course it will as he will renegotiate propped up by the SNP on the basis of permanent Customs Union and SM elements ie an even less Brexity Deal than May's Deal. Given No Deal will be an utter disaster anyway economically whatever the government does a general election will make little difference and at least offers the opportunity of a new government, we know the likes of Boles and Soubry have said they will VONC the government rather than accept No Deal and I expect them to do soPhilip_Thompson said:
A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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A decade ago the political class had trashed its reputation over expenses etc.Pulpstar said:I don't think it's just the eurosceptics reputation that is being destroyed, it's the whole damn house. All of them, useless.
They've managed it again over Brexit.
Perhaps this is going to be the normal state of affairs.0 -
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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"Selling our future", mate, no-one cared about us making our own trade deals until Boris brainwashed them that it would bring back the glorious Empire.Mortimer said:
Labourite selling our future for a few beans today. And you wonder why this country hasn’t put Labour in power for over a decade...Freggles said:May needs to just back the Labour plan now for the sake of the country. The Tory and Labour loyalist votes will be more than enough. Place a motion endorsing a permanent customs union being added to the WA as a codicil, and ask the EU to approve the delay.
I would have been satisfied for May's deal to go through but the Brexiteers made that impossible so the only option is a meaningfully different approach.0 -
If there is a short extension and we do not hold European Parliament elections the only way to avoid no deal by the end of June (discounting for the moment the unlikely option of May's Deal passing and all the legislative detail completed) would be a unilateral revocation that would plunge the governance of the EU into crisis.Scott_P said:
That looks like where we are heading.
If we hold European elections there will be trouble. If we don't it will be double.0 -
At least Anthony Eden didn't invite people to vote for the Suez crisis.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
+1Fenster said:All May needs to do is to get the Kyle amendment to pass through the Commons so that her deal can pass on the basis that there’s a second referendum.
It’s the simplest, cleanest way forward. She can then step down having done half a job but at least have some recognition for securing a deal. After all, for all the finger pointing, she’s the only bugger out of them all to put something firm on the table.0 -
Assuming the legislation authorising EP elections was enacted as amendments to the original European Communities Act, it will be repealed by section 1 of the Withdrawal Act. However that section is not yet in force.oldpolitics said:
I believe the 2018 Withdrawal Act repealed the "existing legislation".anothernick said:
Would new legislation be required for the UK to hold European elections? If we have not left the EU by the relevant date surely the existing legislation would automatically trigger the elections?Big_G_NorthWales said:Having just listened to Katya Adler, BBC Europe correspondent and one of the best on the subject of brexit, she confirms the frustration and dismay throughout the EU 27 with mixed views on options for an extension.
An important point she made is that on any extension beyond the end of June, the UK would be required to put in place the legislation to take part in the EU elections by 21st April as that is the cut off date across Europe to confirm candidates.
I just cannot see that passing and without it the EU could not allow the UK to be a member as all their subsquent legislation would be voted by an illegitimate EU Parliament
Oh boy, is this complex and a mess
She added that the 27 are considering a final brexit meeting on the 28th March, the day before we leave on the 29th (are supposed to leave) to no doubt confirm extension or even no deal !!!!0 -
"Judge walks out amid chaos at hearing of activist who called Anna Soubry a Nazi"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/judge-walks-out-amid-chaos-at-hearing-of-activist-who-called-anna-soubry-a-nazi-g65zq3r9k0 -
No mine, but my greatest worry right now is just further prevarication and delay on an actual decision, and the actions of May and parliament generally seem to make that very possible. If Boris as PM was the price for a resolution now, of any kind, I'd take it. If Corbyn as PM was the price, I'd take it.AndyJS said:
The prospect of Boris as PM isn't an enticing one IMO.Philip_Thompson said:
If not, so be it. At least something will be happening, something will be changing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They may not be PM for more than a few daysPhilip_Thompson said:
Irrelevant. And also meaningless since whoever replaces her will be judged by their tenure as PM and not by how they're viewed now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And anyone else is dramatically less popular with the publicPhilip_Thompson said:
Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
Nothing that would need to take 2 years delay could not be decided, in principle, a lot lot sooner, right now even, even if the technicalities require more time. Please gods can they at least decide something.0 -
Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.0 -
You are wrong. Whether you voted for this or against it, it shames us all.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
I'm not ashamed any more than I'm ashamed of Black Wednesday.Jonathan said:
You are wrong. Whether you voted for this or against it, it shames us all.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
Louis the Fourth??another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
I think you mean Louis XIV...0 -
As a full member of the European Union.DavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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It's getting to the point where I honestly don't care if we leave or not!0
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I got that reference...another_richard said:
Darling Fascist Bully Boysolarflare said:
I hope she remembers to say pleaseScott_P said:
Give me some more money you bastard.
May the seed of your loin be fruitful in the belly of your woman.
T May0 -
One way or another and frankly that would be better, whatever happened. The FTPA is a total disaster and needs urgent repeal.Philip_Thompson said:Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.0 -
No. If the Kyle amendment passes then May must stay on til the referendum. Nobody else should take over at this point and try and sell May's deal.Fenster said:All May needs to do is to get the Kyle amendment to pass through the Commons so that her deal can pass on the basis that there’s a second referendum.
It’s the simplest, cleanest way forward. She can then step down having done half a job but at least have some recognition for securing a deal. After all, for all the finger pointing, she’s the only bugger out of them all to put something firm on the table.0 -
Remainer awareness of the situations of others is hilarious:DavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
2016: If you vote to leave you’ll be poorer
2018: You’ll be too busy being poorer to want to leave
It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so tragically out of touch.0 -
Over 1/3 of MPs who were around then still are, which may be notable.another_richard said:
A decade ago the political class had trashed its reputation over expenses etc.Pulpstar said:I don't think it's just the eurosceptics reputation that is being destroyed, it's the whole damn house. All of them, useless.
They've managed it again over Brexit.
Perhaps this is going to be the normal state of affairs.0 -
The concept that a boom inside the European Union is the future proof of success outside it continues to be very, very odd.0
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Maybe he said it too, it just wasn't written downSunil_Prasannan said:
Louis the Fourth??another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
I think you mean Louis XIV...0 -
Think how Theresa must be feeling tonight. I got a twinge of panic just now when I saw that my water bill is due on 1 April. She has a few days less than that!0
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Has anyone given any thought to asking the lead singer of Echo and The Bunnymen to take over as chief negotiator?viewcode said:
I got that reference...another_richard said:
Darling Fascist Bully Boysolarflare said:
I hope she remembers to say pleaseScott_P said:
Give me some more money you bastard.
May the seed of your loin be fruitful in the belly of your woman.
T May0 -
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.0 -
Brextieer self-awareness is legendary:Mortimer said:
Remainer awareness of the situations of others is hilarious:DavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
2016: If you vote to leave you’ll be poorer
2018: You’ll be too busy being poorer to want to leave
It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so tragicly our of touch.
2016: The sunlit uplands are when we leave the EU
2019: You were warned it would cause economic damage0 -
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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HoC needs to take control of this now and stop May and her broken Cabinet.0
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Yes - they have a duty to act to save us from an economic armageddonkle4 said:
No mine, but my greatest worry right now is just further prevarication and delay on an actual decision, and the actions of May and parliament generally seem to make that very possible. If Boris as PM was the price for a resolution now, of any kind, I'd take it. If Corbyn as PM was the price, I'd take it.AndyJS said:
The prospect of Boris as PM isn't an enticing one IMO.Philip_Thompson said:
If not, so be it. At least something will be happening, something will be changing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They may not be PM for more than a few daysPhilip_Thompson said:
Irrelevant. And also meaningless since whoever replaces her will be judged by their tenure as PM and not by how they're viewed now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And anyone else is dramatically less popular with the publicPhilip_Thompson said:
Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
Nothing that would need to take 2 years delay could not be decided, in principle, a lot lot sooner, right now even, even if the technicalities require more time. Please gods can they at least decide something.0 -
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.0 -
Mostly her own fault frankly. Too many reasons to bother writing them all down. But her desperation not to split the Party is the main one. Pathetic. A total failure of statesmanship that history will not forget.Stark_Dawning said:Think how Theresa must be feeling tonight. I got a twinge of panic just now when I saw that my water bill is due on 1 April. She has a few days less than that!
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I was amazed they did not last week. Probably why Bercow felt he had to step in to make extra certain the government's deal could be killed off.rottenborough said:HoC needs to take control of this now and stop May and her broken Cabinet.
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So what, we can Leave the EU with No Deal and PM Corbyn can still renegotiate a Deal with the EU on permanent Customs Union and Single Market terms as he wouldPhilip_Thompson said:
How will it lead to a PM Corbyn renegotiating? If there's an election called after 14 days we'd already have left still.HYUFD said:
If it leads to PM Corbyn of course it will as he will renegotiate propped up by the SNP on the basis of permanent Customs Union and SM elements ie an even less Brexity Deal than May's Deal. Given No Deal will be an utter disaster anyway economically whatever the government does a general election will make little difference and at least offers the opportunity of a new government, we know the likes of Boles and Soubry have said they will VONC the government rather than accept No Deal and I expect them to do soPhilip_Thompson said:
A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Yes, fair point.Philip_Thompson said:
No. If the Kyle amendment passes then May must stay on til the referendum. Nobody else should take over at this point and try and sell May's deal.Fenster said:All May needs to do is to get the Kyle amendment to pass through the Commons so that her deal can pass on the basis that there’s a second referendum.
It’s the simplest, cleanest way forward. She can then step down having done half a job but at least have some recognition for securing a deal. After all, for all the finger pointing, she’s the only bugger out of them all to put something firm on the table.
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Well done.viewcode said:
I got that reference...another_richard said:
Darling Fascist Bully Boysolarflare said:
I hope she remembers to say pleaseScott_P said:
Give me some more money you bastard.
May the seed of your loin be fruitful in the belly of your woman.
T May
For those who thought I was applying to be Jeremy Hunt's next speech writer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbOlJAU8llY0 -
The Good Ship May is just sailing on serenely...Stark_Dawning said:Think how Theresa must be feeling tonight. I got a twinge of panic just now when I saw that my water bill is due on 1 April. She has a few days less than that!
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And 800 years later 'we' were taking the fat out of the slain to make soap. Civilisation, eh?SeanT said:fpt for Sean F
I've just read the most stupendous piece of general military history/socio-geopolitics, with added Darwinism, Ian Morris's: WAR
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00IOLFGEC/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Every page is full of startling insights, or the most gruesome yet compelling factoids. One of my favourites is about Genghis Khan.
We all know that the Mongols were hideously brutal - exterminating every living THING in conquered cities, down to the last cats, dogs and hens, but I never knew THIS: during a war, they would take the fat out of the slain corpses of their enemies, hurl it at the walls of enemy houses and buildings, then set fire to the human fat, thereby burning down the cities.
100% recommended. One of the best books of general history I have read in a decade.
May give it a read.
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I wonder if she'd have dared call one. The Maastricht rebellion was like 20 guys, the WA one was getting on for half her party...Philip_Thompson said:Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.0 -
As someone committed to leaving in 10 days. The current chaos is worse than any possible outcome which is why even a no deal is better than a lengthy extension (as is revocation) and yet unemployment falls to the lowest since 1971, employment is both the highest ever in absolute terms and getting close to our peace time record as a share of the adult population. The hysteria about Brexit continues to be massively overblown and counterproductive. But the deal is still the best way out from here.WhisperingOracle said:
As a full member of the European Union.DavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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The referendum itself too. If the referendum had been held by a PM who believed in the change offered we wouldn't be in half as much trouble.Philip_Thompson said:Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.0 -
Parliament should never have been allowed the power it has had, it's a ridiculous partisan pitrottenborough said:HoC needs to take control of this now and stop May and her broken Cabinet.
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The nation's government is, and that makes many of us sad of course, but I don't know why you must insist that everybody must share in that in some personal fashion just because you wish to wallow in the feeling. I'm annoyed, saddened, embarrassed, including at myself for elements of this, but no matter how many times people weep profusely about it political crises do happen, and it is just plain silly to treat every crisis like it will be a national and personal humiliation which will never be overcome. It's unconvincing.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.0 -
Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit.
Blair says he has told Macron to prepare for Britain thinking again on Brexit and then can reconsider the future of Europe once Britain back in the EU0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfidious_AlbionJonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.0 -
I don't think the economy is in good shape, even if the data on employment is good. There are long term structural problems, which Robert Smithson explains well.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Brexit is just an unknown. There are too many variables to be able to make meaningful predictions about what will happen. But it seems foolish to celebrate the fact that the government seem to have lost control over the whole process. The situation has got so intractibly complicated, and the positions of the players have become so entrenched, that no deal can happen even though no one wants it to, and that is what might well happen.0 -
If only someone wrote an article like this, eh?williamglenn said:
Brextieer self-awareness is legendary:Mortimer said:
Remainer awareness of the situations of others is hilarious:DavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
2016: If you vote to leave you’ll be poorer
2018: You’ll be too busy being poorer to want to leave
It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so tragicly our of touch.
2016: The sunlit uplands are when we leave the EU
2019: You were warned it would cause economic damage
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/16/mortimer-with-a-tip-for-the-more-adventurous-gamblers/
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Well, she's been busy. Staring at the wall and trying not to cry is time-consuming.Scott_P said:
(Lest I be thought of as sexist, I need to point out that according to 'Fall Out" she does have form for zoning out and/or breaking into tears at stressful moments. Some people are invigorated by stress, some are not, and she's one of the "nots")
0 -
I must say considering we're all supposed to be in a terrible crisis the like of which none of us have ever been in before I'm feeling remarkably relaxed.DavidL said:
As someone committed to leaving in 10 days. The current chaos is worse than any possible outcome which is why even a no deal is better than a lengthy extension (as is revocation) and yet unemployment falls to the lowest since 1971, employment is both the highest ever in absolute terms and getting close to our peace time record as a share of the adult population. The hysteria about Brexit continues to be massively overblown and counterproductive. But the deal is still the best way out from here.WhisperingOracle said:
As a full member of the European Union.DavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
Always said that man spoke sense. But how will parliament make such a decision in advance of an extension being asked for? They are no closer to doing so, because they clearly want to defer a decision until we are in the extension. Which may not happen unless we make a decision, and so round it goes.HYUFD said:Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit
0 -
The vote to revoke. It being too difficult to Brexit, and that some Brexiteers even say that openly, means Remain has already won.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That is just asinine. It is blatantly obvious but saying it changes nothingHYUFD said:Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit.
Blair says he has told Macron to prepare for Britain thinking again on Brexit and then can reconsider the future of Europe once Britain back in the EU0 -
And we still are.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
All of us not in Parliament.0 -
She'll soon have some time on her hands for reading......Theuniondivvie said:
And 800 years later 'we' were taking the fat out of the slain to make soap. Civilisation, eh?SeanT said:fpt for Sean F
I've just read the most stupendous piece of general military history/socio-geopolitics, with added Darwinism, Ian Morris's: WAR
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00IOLFGEC/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Every page is full of startling insights, or the most gruesome yet compelling factoids. One of my favourites is about Genghis Khan.
We all know that the Mongols were hideously brutal - exterminating every living THING in conquered cities, down to the last cats, dogs and hens, but I never knew THIS: during a war, they would take the fat out of the slain corpses of their enemies, hurl it at the walls of enemy houses and buildings, then set fire to the human fat, thereby burning down the cities.
100% recommended. One of the best books of general history I have read in a decade.
May give it a read.0 -
Stop blaming others. Take responsibility and look at the reality of an entirely self inflicted crisis that unless we act, will inflict economic harm.kle4 said:
The nation's government is, and that makes many of us sad of course, but I don't know why you must insist that everybody must share in that in some personal fashion just because you wish to wallow in the feeling. I'm annoyed, saddened, embarrassed, including at myself for elements of this, but no matter how many times people weep profusely about it political crises do happen, and it is just plain silly to treat every crisis like it will be a national and personal humiliation which will never be overcome. It's unconvincing.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.0 -
Everybody marches off to war singing in the sunshine. Everybody stumbles back in tears in the dark.DavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Somebody buy that man a shedHYUFD said:Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit.
Blair says he has told Macron to prepare for Britain thinking again on Brexit and then can reconsider the future of Europe once Britain back in the EU0 -
Would we really want our politicians meddling in other things ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
As very little has materially changed yet, it's unsurprising that very little feels different. This curious logic has been applied since the referendum, and its shallowness will only be found out if there's any significant material change - in others words if there's anything other than a very soft Brexit.0
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I am angry with our utterly contemptible political class but I have no apprehensions about what Brexit is actually going to mean in practice for me and mine. We will have to go looking for consequences. Hard.GIN1138 said:
I must say considering we're all supposed to be in a terrible crisis the like of which none of us have ever been in before I'm feeling remarkably relaxed.DavidL said:
As someone committed to leaving in 10 days. The current chaos is worse than any possible outcome which is why even a no deal is better than a lengthy extension (as is revocation) and yet unemployment falls to the lowest since 1971, employment is both the highest ever in absolute terms and getting close to our peace time record as a share of the adult population. The hysteria about Brexit continues to be massively overblown and counterproductive. But the deal is still the best way out from here.WhisperingOracle said:
As a full member of the European Union.DavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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It really doesn't. It shames politicians who behave like muppets.Jonathan said:
You are wrong. Whether you voted for this or against it, it shames us all.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1108138022514626562Sean_F said:
It really doesn't. It shames politicians who behave like muppets.Jonathan said:
You are wrong. Whether you voted for this or against it, it shames us all.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
Parliament has already voted for extension, his assumption was the EU will grant itkle4 said:
Always said that man spoke sense. But how will parliament make such a decision in advance of an extension being asked for? They are no closer to doing so, because they clearly want to defer a decision until we are in the extension. Which may not happen unless we make a decision, and so round it goes.HYUFD said:Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit
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There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.Mortimer said:
And we still are.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
All of us not in Parliament.0 -
He might know what the EU will do thoughBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is just asinine. It is blatantly obvious but saying it changes nothingHYUFD said:Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit.
Blair says he has told Macron to prepare for Britain thinking again on Brexit and then can reconsider the future of Europe once Britain back in the EU
0 -
What the blathering hell are you on about? I already said I was annoyed, saddened and embarrassed at myself and I've said I regretted voting leave and we need to take actions to remain now, what about that is me blaming others?Jonathan said:
Stop blaming others. Take responsibility and look at the reality of an entirely self inflicted crisis that unless we act, will inflict economic harm.kle4 said:
The nation's government is, and that makes many of us sad of course, but I don't know why you must insist that everybody must share in that in some personal fashion just because you wish to wallow in the feeling. I'm annoyed, saddened, embarrassed, including at myself for elements of this, but no matter how many times people weep profusely about it political crises do happen, and it is just plain silly to treat every crisis like it will be a national and personal humiliation which will never be overcome. It's unconvincing.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Also, what in my paragraph is me blaming others for anything anyway? It had nothing about blaming anyone, it was suggesting you need to stop whinging like a little baby that everyone must feel the same personal humiliation you want them to feel. Grow up and stop acting like anyone who does not feel the same shame you do therefore has no acceptance of any concerns in the current situation. You can feel any personal shame you want, others can feel embarrassment and regret, if they have any, in their own way. The idea we are obliged to feel personal shame because of a political crisis is just dumb.
But I'll play: when I was saying that expecting everyone to feel personal humiliation for a political crisis is silly, who is that blaming? It's not blaming you for anything, just disagreeing with you.
You make no sense.0 -
The whole process has been a useful reminder on the perfidious nature of party politicians. And grimly amusing from the perspective of enjoying middle class panic0
-
The view on our sofa was that these interviews with EU people could be edited down to a Gallic shrug and “wtf?”, without losing much meaning.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:You've got to feel for the MEP being interviewed on Newsnight - pointed out 2 years of pissing about, now coming back 10 days from the brink to ask for something, but they don't know what.
In fact, we concluded that this would have been a more appropriate opening song than All Saints
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sBlY53fgN-k
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Blair hedging his bets now?HYUFD said:Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit.
Blair says he has told Macron to prepare for Britain thinking again on Brexit and then can reconsider the future of Europe once Britain back in the EU
He's always been saying we'll have another referendum and get the result right (thats what he's been advising the French and Germans) yet now he's saying Parliament must decide on hard or soft Brexit?
So he's shifted his position from Brexit won't happen to what kind of Brexit happens needs to
be decided?0 -
Maybe this makes 'nothing is agreed, until everything is agreed' very 'live' at present and the increasing stress, anger, recriminations, doubt, fear etc adds a real context to what seems a bland statement0
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I fully expect panic buying to start this weekend to be honest unless EU has agreed an extension until late May/June.viewcode said:
Everybody marches off to war singing in the sunshine. Everybody stumbles back in tears in the dark.DavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.HYUFD said:
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1108138022514626562Sean_F said:
It really doesn't. It shames politicians who behave like muppets.Jonathan said:
You are wrong. Whether you voted for this or against it, it shames us all.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
I've said that all the way along....0 -
It did occur to me earlier that one reason the economy is doing so well* is that the politicians have been kept occupied with Brexit so that they haven't been able to wreck it by meddling with it.another_richard said:
Would we really want our politicians meddling in other things ?TheScreamingEagles said:
* Though it may not be doing so well. This could all be temporary froth built on an edifice of debt. Again.0 -
Gove I reckon.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
And the EU owns part of the mess.Jonathan said:
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.Mortimer said:
And we still are.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
All of us not in Parliament.
Has it shown any intention to 'grow up' ?0 -
He still maintains Brexit may not happen at all if the mood changes in an extensionGIN1138 said:
Blair hedging his bets now?HYUFD said:Blair on Newsnight now says we need to come to a clear decision on Brexit, he thinks the EU will grant an extension as they do not want No Deal but Parliament must come to a decision on a soft or hard Brexit.
Blair says he has told Macron to prepare for Britain thinking again on Brexit and then can reconsider the future of Europe once Britain back in the EU
He's always been saying we'll have another referendum and get the result right (thats what he's been advising the French and Germans) yet now he's saying Parliament must decide on hard or soft Brexit?
So he's shifted his position from Brexit won't happen to what kind of Brexit happens needs to
be decided?
0 -
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?Jonathan said:
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.Mortimer said:
And we still are.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
All of us not in Parliament.0 -
I said that in a Brexit meeting at work at least a month ago - I was in minority of one.GIN1138 said:rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1108138022514626562Sean_F said:
It really doesn't. It shames politicians who behave like muppets.Jonathan said:
You are wrong. Whether you voted for this or against it, it shames us all.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
I've said that all the way along....
So either I was the brilliant one or the only idiot :-)0 -
Also rather overconfident I would suggest about a No Deal we are almost completely unprepared forDavidL said:
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.HYUFD said:
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
They say your legs make your life better but see how much it hurts when you try to cut them offdyedwoolie said:
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?Jonathan said:
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.Mortimer said:
And we still are.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
All of us not in Parliament.0 -
Night all. I need to lie down!0
-
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.DavidL said:
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.HYUFD said:
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
Our political class gives no impression it is capable of 'adding value' to anything it gets involved in.OblitusSumMe said:
It did occur to me earlier that one reason the economy is doing so well* is that the politicians have been kept occupied with Brexit so that they haven't been able to wreck it by meddling with it.another_richard said:
Would we really want our politicians meddling in other things ?TheScreamingEagles said:
* Though it may not be doing so well. This could all be temporary froth built on an edifice of debt. Again.0 -
Go for the soft amputation of only the toes.edmundintokyo said:
They say your legs make your life better but see how much it hurts when you try to cut them offdyedwoolie said:
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?Jonathan said:
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.Mortimer said:
And we still are.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
All of us not in Parliament.0 -
The shock that MPs have not as yet (or even looking very likely) managed to find some kind of resolution is perhaps not unreasonable even of MPs themselves. However, the fake shock of MPs of the legal consequence of their not resolving the situation, and the occasional suggestion that it is only the government's fault that that is the consequence when nearly all voted for that, has been one of the more shameless elements in the Brexit debate. It would be fairer if they qualified comments with never having expected any government to be so incompetent as to bring back a deal that could not get through, but most of the time comments are not so nuanced as that, it is just insincere anger at the A50 timescales and what that leads to if they refuse to act.GIN1138 said:
I've said that all the way along....rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1108138022514626562Sean_F said:
It really doesn't. It shames politicians who behave like muppets.Jonathan said:
You are wrong. Whether you voted for this or against it, it shames us all.Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Our economy is booming, whilst everyone laughs at Parliament’s inability to accept it was overruled.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Remainer and Leaver MPs have not covered themselves in glory on that point.0 -
You could be right. He does seem rather indifferent to Brexit of late, preferring instead to cleanse the oceans and heal the land.rottenborough said:
Gove I reckon.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Again not true - but any lack of preparations would be an act of criminal negligence by ... oh the Conservative governmentHYUFD said:
Also rather overconfident I would suggest about a No Deal we are almost completely unprepared forDavidL said:
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.HYUFD said:
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
One can only take responsibility for one's own actions, not other peoples'.kle4 said:
What the blathering hell are you on about? I already said I was annoyed, saddened and embarrassed at myself and I've said I regretted voting leave and we need to take actions to remain now, what about that is me blaming others?Jonathan said:
Stop blaming others. Take responsibility and look at the reality of an entirely self inflicted crisis that unless we act, will inflict economic harm.kle4 said:
The nation's government is, and that makes many of us sad of course, but I don't know why you must insist that everybody must share in that in some personal fashion just because you wish to wallow in the feeling. I'm annoyed, saddened, embarrassed, including at myself for elements of this, but no matter how many times it is just plain silly to treat every crisis like it will be a national and personal humiliation which will never be overcome. It's unconvincing.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Also, what in my paragraph is me blaming others for anything anyway? It had nothing about blaming anyone, it was suggesting you need to stop whinging like a little baby that everyone must feel the same personal humiliation you want them to feel. Grow up and stop acting like anyone who does not feel the same shame you do therefore has no acceptance of any concerns in the current situation. You can feel any personal shame you want, others can feel embarrassment and regret, if they have any, in their own way. The idea we are obliged to feel personal shame because of a political crisis is just dumb.
But I'll play: when I was saying that expecting everyone to feel personal humiliation for a political crisis is silly, who is that blaming? It's not blaming you for anything, just disagreeing with you.
You make no sense.0 -
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.dyedwoolie said:
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?Jonathan said:
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.Mortimer said:
And we still are.Jonathan said:
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.another_richard said:
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.Jonathan said:
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
All of us not in Parliament.0 -
Look at the bright side. If we do have a great crash, then it'll be a really good time to buy shares immediately afterwards, on "buy at the bottom of the curve" grounds. Or have I got that wrong.DavidL said:
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.HYUFD said:
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
0 -
Gove's biggest fears are much bigger than that when it comes to Brexit.rottenborough said:
Gove I reckon.TheScreamingEagles said:
1) No Deal leads to the Tories being out of power for a generation and/or full blown split
2) A generation of Corbyn and/or Corbynism in government.
3) We rejoin the EU PDQ after sustained No Deal, so the 2016 referendum sees us become full members of the project
4) Scottish independence caused by Brexit (which is the one that keeps him up at night). Remain wins in 2016 and there's no causus belli for another Indyref.0 -
The IMF says No Deal would cause an 8% hit to GDP, in 2008 it shrank by 4.1%Floater said:
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.DavidL said:
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.HYUFD said:
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-no-deal-news-imf-forecast-gdp-world-trade-organisation-economy-a8633681.html0 -
I suspect it would be rather worse, especially so in certain sectors.Floater said:
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.DavidL said:
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.HYUFD said:
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sakeDavidL said:
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.HYUFD said:
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partnerDavidL said:
Sigh: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47622415rottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
More importantly though would be how soon and how easily all the 'little deals' could be arranged to get things moving smoothly again.0