There is a real growing fear of the unknown evidenced on here and in the media and it seems we are heading for no deal, unless the HOC can unite around a douable position. Time for TM to call a meeting of all leaders for the leaders to come up with the answer. Lock them in a room with no phones, food, drink or loos until they agree
Anyway time to wish everyone a pleasant nights rest
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
They say your legs make your life better but see how much it hurts when you try to cut them off
My legs didn't vote to join the rest of me in a common market
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
Actually we can.
May's Deal takes us out without the economic damage and if our politicians had accepted it we wouldn't have had the political damage.
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
Humm true enough. I think the trouble we have getting out shows we are right to want out though ultimately
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely .
Of course it won't No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
Tut tut. Mildly misleading. It says not that we would have an 8% hit to our gdp, just that we will be a little bit less rich in the future than we would be in a non Brexit scenario. So if the model predicted our economy would be a 125% of what it is now in 15 years time staying in the EU it would only be 117% in 15 years instead.
There is a real growing fear of the unknown evidenced on here and in the media and it seems we are heading for no deal, unless the HOC can unite around a douable position. Time for TM to call a meeting of all leaders for the leaders to come up with the answer. Lock them in a room with no phones, food, drink or loos until they agree
May: You must do as I say Corbyn: You must do as I say Blackford: You must do as I say Saville-Roberts: You must do as the SNP say Lucas: You must do as..wait, why am I even here? Dodds: Never, never... May: We've not discussed any options yet... Dodds: Don't interrupt me. Ahem. Never! May: *sigh*. Someone wake up Vince please. Umunna: I'll do it. All: Who the f*ck invited the Tiggers?
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
Humm true enough. I think the trouble we have getting out shows we are right to want out though ultimately
Leaving is really easy (and I’m with BigG that there’s quite a bit of momentum in that direction still for next Friday). Leaving with any *cake*, however, less so..
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
They say your legs make your life better but see how much it hurts when you try to cut them off
My legs didn't vote to join the rest of me in a common market
My legs have always said they'd be able to run much further and faster if it didn't have to lug the rest of my plump self around with it. My torso has really been holding them back.
There is a real growing fear of the unknown evidenced on here and in the media and it seems we are heading for no deal, unless the HOC can unite around a douable position. Time for TM to call a meeting of all leaders for the leaders to come up with the answer. Lock them in a room with no phones, food, drink or loos until they agree
May: You must do as I say Corbyn: You must do as I say Blackford: You must do as I say Saville-Roberts: You must do as the SNP say Lucas: You must do as..wait, why am I even here? Dodds: Never, never... May: We've not discussed any options yet... Dodds: Don't interrupt me. Ahem. Never! May: *sigh*. Someone wake up Vince please. Umunna: I'll do it. All: Who the f*ck invited the Tiggers?
Just switching off my tablet and noticed your reply and it made me chuckle.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.
If it leads to PM Corbyn of course it will as he will renegotiate propped up by the SNP on the basis of permanent Customs Union and SM elements ie an even less Brexity Deal than May's Deal. Given No Deal will be an utter disaster anyway economically whatever the government does a general election will make little difference and at least offers the opportunity of a new government, we know the likes of Boles and Soubry have said they will VONC the government rather than accept No Deal and I expect them to do so
How will it lead to a PM Corbyn renegotiating? If there's an election called after 14 days we'd already have left still.
So what, we can Leave with No Deal and Corbyn can still renegotiate a Deal with the EU on permanent Customs Union and Single Market terms
So what you're saying is that leaving with no deal isn't that big of a deal and we can then negotiate a new deal once outside?
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
The effect has shown up in poor investment figures, and slightly weaker GDP growth, which has averaged 1.7% p.a. since mid 2016, whereas it would have been 2% or so, otherwise.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely .
Of course it won't No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
Tut tut. Mildly misleading. It says not that we would have an 8% hit to our gdp, just that we will be a little bit less rich in the future than we would be in a non Brexit scenario. So if the model predicted our economy would be a 125% of what it is now in 15 years time staying in the EU it would only be 117% in 15 years instead.
Not mildly misleading - scaremongering or dishonesty - you can choose.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy n.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behinM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there arrown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
The effect has shown up in poor investment figures, and slightly weaker GDP growth, which has averaged 1.7% p.a. since mid 2016, whereas it would have been 2% or so, otherwise.
Former Vice President Joe Biden reached out to at least a half-dozen supporters Tuesday to tell them he intends to run for president and to ask for their help in lining up contributions from major donors so he can quickly raise several million dollars, a person familiar with the matter said.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
As someone committed to leaving in 10 days. The current chaos is worse than any possible outcome which is why even a no deal is better than a lengthy extension (as is revocation) and yet unemployment falls to the lowest since 1971, employment is both the highest ever in absolute terms and getting close to our peace time record as a share of the adult population. The hysteria about Brexit continues to be massively overblown and counterproductive. But the deal is still the best way out from here.
And the deficit is now quite low too. The government has spent years fixing the roof while the sun wasn't even shining that brightly - if ever there were to be a time to risk a no deal exit this would be it.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
Tut tut. Mildly misleading. It says not that we would have an 8% hit to our gdp, just that we will be a little bit less rich in the future than we would be in a non Brexit scenario. So if the model predicted our economy would be a 125% of what it is now in 15 years time staying in the EU it would only be 117% in 15 years instead.
Not mildly misleading - scaremongering or dishonesty - you can choose.
Glad to see you so blasé about an 8% cut to potential future gdp, those whose jobs will no longer be there and whose wages will no longer be as high may take a different view
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy n.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behinM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there arrown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.
If it leads to PM Corbyn of course it will as he will renegotiate propped up by the SNP on the basis of permanent Customs Union and SM elements ie an even less Brexity Deal than May's Deal. Given No Deal will be an utter disaster anyway economically whatever the government does a general election will make little difference and at least offers the opportunity of a new government, we know the likes of Boles and Soubry have said they will VONC the government rather than accept No Deal and I expect them to do so
How will it lead to a PM Corbyn renegotiating? If there's an election called after 14 days we'd already have left still.
So what, we can Leave with No Deal and Corbyn can still renegotiate a Deal with the EU on permanent Customs Union and Single Market terms
So what you're saying is that leaving with no deal isn't that big of a deal and we can then negotiate a new deal once outside?
A BINO deal yes, we will not get any more Brexity Deal than May's Deal
"A devout Catholic and mother of five has been asked to attend a police interview after being accused of using the wrong pronoun to describe a transgender girl.
Caroline Farrow, was contacted by officers from the Surrey force to inform her they were investigating an allegation that she had made transphobic comments on Twitter."
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
The effect has shown up in poor investment figures, and slightly weaker GDP growth, which has averaged 1.7% p.a. since mid 2016, whereas it would have been 2% or so, otherwise.
Remind me of the latest employment figures....
They are very healthy, but only one of the numbers.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
The effect has shown up in poor investment figures, and slightly weaker GDP growth, which has averaged 1.7% p.a. since mid 2016, whereas it would have been 2% or so, otherwise.
I think the economy would have struggled to grow at 2.0% in any case.
The only strong GDP growth in the last decade was boosted by the oil price crash of 2014.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy n.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behinM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there arrown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
Tut tut. Mildly misleading. It says not that we would have an 8% hit to our gdp, just that we will be a little bit less rich in the future than we would be in a non Brexit scenario. So if the model predicted our economy would be a 125% of what it is now in 15 years time staying in the EU it would only be 117% in 15 years instead.
Not mildly misleading - scaremongering or dishonesty - you can choose.
Glad to see you so blasé about an 8% cut to potential future gdp, those whose jobs will no longer be there and whose wages will no longer be as high may take a different view
You clearly have no idea or you were deliberately being misleading
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy n.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behinM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there arrown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
"A devout Catholic and mother of five has been asked to attend a police interview after being accused of using the wrong pronoun to describe a transgender girl.
Caroline Farrow, was contacted by officers from the Surrey force to inform her they were investigating an allegation that she had made transphobic comments on Twitter."
Excellent news. Clearly there's still plenty of spare capacity in the police, despite claims that budgets have been cut too much.
There has been a spate of the police interviewing people who have made comments on line that are not a crime ..... whilst at the same time telling us they can't investigate err crime
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
The effect has shown up in poor investment figures, and slightly weaker GDP growth, which has averaged 1.7% p.a. since mid 2016, whereas it would have been 2% or so, otherwise.
Remind me of the latest employment figures....
They are very healthy, but only one of the numbers.
The Spring Statement had the unusual combination of a reduction of forecast GDP growth and a reduction in forecast government borrowing.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy n.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behinM elements BINO with the EU
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there arrown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
Sigh - that says long teorecasting 2 years ahead let alone long term.
Still a net loss of potential output of 8%
Will you admit you posted a misleading comparison.
Nothing to admit, a fall of 8% in our future gdp is forecast, you obviously could not care less
I care that you are posting distortions of the facts - but hey knock yourself out.
There was no distortion of the facts, the IMF forecast a fall of 8% in our future GDP, end of conversation. You may not be bothered about that as hard Brexit ideology trumps all, that is up to you, it does not change that forecast
Saw Tone's Newsnight interview... Thought he seemed very shifty when challenged about what he's been saying to the French.
There's a story waiting to some out methinks...
I don't know what he could have said that would surprise. The French can see the national debate we are having and are more than capable of coming up with solid conclusions based on that regardless of what Blair says, and in wargaming various scenarios based on us changing our minds or whatever.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
The effect has shown up in poor investment figures, and slightly weaker GDP growth, which has averaged 1.7% p.a. since mid 2016, whereas it would have been 2% or so, otherwise.
I think the economy would have struggled to grow at 2.0% in any case.
The only strong GDP growth in the last decade was boosted by the oil price crash of 2014.
Since 2000, the economy has grown by 1.9% p.a., so it's not that different. But, there was a slight boost to growth in the EU in 2017, which we missed out on.
Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.
I wonder if she'd have dared call one. The Maastricht rebellion was like 20 guys, the WA one was getting on for half her party...
In retrospect, the Brexiteers must be kicking themselves that they triggered the VONC early. If they could do it now, it'd be a lot easier.
Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.
I wonder if she'd have dared call one. The Maastricht rebellion was like 20 guys, the WA one was getting on for half her party...
In retrospect, the Brexiteers must be kicking themselves that they triggered the VONC early. If they could do it now, it'd be a lot easier.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there arrown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
Sigh - that says long teorecasting 2 years ahead let alone long term.
Still a net loss of potential output of 8%
Will you admit you posted a misleading comparison.
Nothing to admit, a fall of 8% in our future gdp is forecast, you obviously could not care less
I care that you are posting distortions of the facts - but hey knock yourself out.
There was no distortion of the facts, the IMF forecast a fall of 8% in our future GDP, end of conversation. You may not be bothered about that as hard Brexit ideology trumps all, that is up to you, it does not change that forecast
The point being that you compared a long term potential impact - the IMF forecast, spread over many years, with a 1 Year actual impact - so very much apples and oranges.
The site is once again moving tonight to one of its two default modes ; interesting arena of contest and debate, and sometimes warm cross-political community, and on the other hand comforting right-of-centre echo chamber. I'll leave it to the discretion of others to decide which one we're currently in.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
The effect has shown up in poor investment figures, and slightly weaker GDP growth, which has averaged 1.7% p.a. since mid 2016, whereas it would have been 2% or so, otherwise.
I think the economy would have struggled to grow at 2.0% in any case.
The only strong GDP growth in the last decade was boosted by the oil price crash of 2014.
Since 2000, the economy has grown by 1.9% p.a., so it's not that different. But, there was a slight boost to growth in the EU in 2017, which we missed out on.
Though 2017 was a good year for the rebalancing of the UK economy.
Given how imbalanced the UK economy is there's a trade-off between rebalancing and GDP growth.
The site is once again moving tonight to one of its two default modes ; interesting arena of contest and debate, and sometimes warm cross-political community, and on the other hand comforting right-of-centre echo chamber. I'll leave it to the discretion of others to decide which one we're currently in.
Right of centre echo chamber? It seems to be those on the right who are squabbling most stridently.
"A devout Catholic and mother of five has been asked to attend a police interview after being accused of using the wrong pronoun to describe a transgender girl.
Caroline Farrow, was contacted by officers from the Surrey force to inform her they were investigating an allegation that she had made transphobic comments on Twitter."
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.
You know, someone did a video on the consequences of No Deal Brexit...
In summary: it would not be the end of the world. Food would not become scarce.
But it would be a nasty shock to the system. Not 2008 bad, but quite possibly 1990 bad.
You'll be alight, as a world famous international thriller writer you spend most of your life jetting around the world... Theresa's Porn Laws won't apply to you very often.
I am currently going thru a bit of a clear out, which includes throwing out old tins that are past their sell-by date. So I am the anti-stockpiler...
Most tins have a “Best Before” date - which means you can safely use them after that date, rather than a “Use by” date (usually fresh food) which you shouldn’t.
You'll be alight, as the a world famous international thriller writer you spend most of your life jetting around the world... Theresa's Porn Laws won't apply to you very often.
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
The site is once again moving tonight to one of its two default modes ; interesting arena of contest and debate, and sometimes warm cross-political community, and on the other hand comforting right-of-centre echo chamber. I'll leave it to the discretion of others to decide which one we're currently in.
Right of centre echo chamber? It seems to be those on the right who are squabbling most stridently.
Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.
I wonder if she'd have dared call one. The Maastricht rebellion was like 20 guys, the WA one was getting on for half her party...
In retrospect, the Brexiteers must be kicking themselves that they triggered the VONC early. If they could do it now, it'd be a lot easier.
That's also another example of a rule that stops you repeatedly voting on the same thing. They seem to be all over the place. Our parish council has one.
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
Incidentally I'd like to once more thank David Cameron's constitutional vandalism for leaving us where we are now.
If ever there was a vote to make a confidence vote it was this. Voting against the meaningful vote truly should have been a confidence matter with all it entailed. If it wasn't for the FTPA this would likely be over already.
I wonder if she'd have dared call one. The Maastricht rebellion was like 20 guys, the WA one was getting on for half her party...
In retrospect, the Brexiteers must be kicking themselves that they triggered the VONC early. If they could do it now, it'd be a lot easier.
That's also another example of a rule that stops you repeatedly voting on the same thing. They seem to be all over the place. Our parish council has one.
Sensible rule, generally. Of course, there are usually provisions to allow bodies to overrule that either by enough people asking for it or suspending the rule that says they cannot. Only a question of whether that is sensible or justified, because it very much can be.
The site is once again moving tonight to one of its two default modes ; interesting arena of contest and debate, and sometimes warm cross-political community, and on the other hand comforting right-of-centre echo chamber. I'll leave it to the discretion of others to decide which one we're currently in.
Right of centre echo chamber? It seems to be those on the right who are squabbling most stridently.
Not much comfort happening right now!
The Cornynites and the ERG are why we can’t have nice things.
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.
If it leads to PM Corbyn of course it will as he will renegotiate propped up by the SNP on the basis of permanent Customs Union and SM elements ie an even less Brexity Deal than May's Deal. Given No Deal will be an utter disaster anyway economically whatever the government does a general election will make little difference and at least offers the opportunity of a new government, we know the likes of Boles and Soubry have said they will VONC the government rather than accept No Deal and I expect them to do so
How will it lead to a PM Corbyn renegotiating? If there's an election called after 14 days we'd already have left still.
So what, we can Leave with No Deal and Corbyn can still renegotiate a Deal with the EU on permanent Customs Union and Single Market terms
So what you're saying is that leaving with no deal isn't that big of a deal and we can then negotiate a new deal once outside?
A BINO deal yes, we will not get any more Brexity Deal than May's Deal
A BINO deal once we've already Brexited seems extremely unlikely to me.
Best chance of BINO is before we Brexit. Once we've Brexited all attention will switch to how Brexit goes. If its armageddon and the living envy the dead we'll be begging to get back in. If we look around and think "what was all the fuss about" we'll move on.
Realistically it will be somewhere inbetween but the one thing I'm confident in is that it won't be as bad as predicted. Nor as good as hoped for.
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, we have not even Brexited yet, let alone with No Deal
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, we have not even Brexited yet, let alone with No Deal
WE ARE LESS THAN 10 DAYS AWAY!
It should have impacted us by now. I swear even if there's a no deal brexit in less than 10 days time, by the end of April you'll find more ordinary people talking about the new season of Game of Thrones than you will Brexit.
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
Pornhub could probably do a better job of running the country than the current wonders in parliament
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.
If it leads to PM Corbyn of course it will as he will renegotiate propped up by the SNP on the basis of permanent Customs Union and SM elements ie an even less Brexity Deal than May's Deal. Given No Deal will be an utter disaster anyway economically whatever the government does a general election will make little difference and at least offers the opportunity of a new government, we know the likes of Boles and Soubry have said they will VONC the government rather than accept No Deal and I expect them to do so
How will it lead to a PM Corbyn renegotiating? If there's an election called after 14 days we'd already have left still.
So what, we can Leave with No Deal and Corbyn can still renegotiate a Deal with the EU on permanent Customs Union and Single Market terms
So what you're saying is that leaving with no deal isn't that big of a deal and we can then negotiate a new deal once outside?
A BINO deal yes, we will not get any more Brexity Deal than May's Deal
A BINO deal once we've already Brexited seems extremely unlikely to me.
Best chance of BINO is before we Brexit. Once we've Brexited all attention will switch to how Brexit goes. If its armageddon and the living envy the dead we'll be begging to get back in. If we look around and think "what was all the fuss about" we'll move on.
Realistically it will be somewhere inbetween but the one thing I'm confident in is that it won't be as bad as predicted. Nor as good as hoped for.
If it goes badly the EU will demand Schengen, the Euro, the works to rejoin, BINO will be the only alternative to that
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, we have not even Brexited yet, let alone with No Deal
WE ARE LESS THAN 10 DAYS AWAY!
It should have impacted us by now. I swear even if there's a no deal brexit in less than 10 days time, by the end of April you'll find more ordinary people talking about the new season of Game of Thrones than you will Brexit.
Just because you were 10 days away from Lehmans crashing did not mean the impact had yet been felt
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
To be honest these days surfing the web without a VPN is a bit like sleeping around without using a condom...at best there are going to be a load of people who know your dirty habits, at worst you are going to pick up something nasty.
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
Pornhub could probably do a better job of running the country than the current wonders in parliament
Brexit has already created plenty of work for lawyers. Perhaps pornographers and ‘models’ are next?
What has parliament focussed most effort on ? Brexit - And it goes awfully. What has parliament not had time to do ? The economy in general except a couple of minimal changing pieces biannually by Phil ... And it goes well.
Re: Falklands/France nonsense on the previous thread. I'm pretty sure we've discussed this before but anyway...
1. France halted Peru's AM39 (aka 'Exocet') deliveries in case they got donated to Argentina. 2. The DGSE in conjunction with MI6 were running around the world buying AM39s and components for the same reasons as 1. 3. Before the task force left the AdA provided 801NAS (one of the Sea Harrier squadrons) with dissimilar air combat training vs the Mirage/Magic combination to prepare them for crossing swords with Argentina. This helped a great deal.
I am not sure what more could have been expected from an ally other than them actually contributing forces to the task force. They were certainly more supportive of the UK than UK was in France's post imperial military adventures.
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, we have not even Brexited yet, let alone with No Deal
WE ARE LESS THAN 10 DAYS AWAY!
It should have impacted us by now. I swear even if there's a no deal brexit in less than 10 days time, by the end of April you'll find more ordinary people talking about the new season of Game of Thrones than you will Brexit.
Just because you were 10 days away from Lehmans crashing did not mean the impact had yet been felt
Lehman's was a shock. Brexit is not. We know Brexit is coming, it's been coming for two years.
If someone had pre-announced that Lehman's was collapsing in two years time then when it did it would have affected the banking system a lot less as companies would have done what they needed to in order to get away from being affected by it.
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.
I've seen economic forecasts which talk about a 0.5% short term hit - in other words end of days it is not.
I would be very surprised if it's that modest.
Let's just quickly run down the immediate impacts:
1. Firms who have their European parent companies in the UK would want to relocate them to places protected by laws against double taxation and withholding taxes*. This would probably have a negative impact on net investment numbers of 0.5-0.75% in year one, and perhaps 0.25% in year two.
2. Our exports to the EU would now be subject to tariffs, similarly our exports to countries where the UK has not rolled over existing EU deals. This would have a small effect in some areas, and a bigger effect in others. (Where things cross the border repeatedly, like automotive components, there would be a significant impact.)
3. UK citizens in most EU countries would lost the right to live there. Now, this would probably be sorted out reasonably quickly. But it would still cause disruption to both us, and to EU countries.
4. There would not be competent regulatory authorities in some areas, and this would cause disruption to exports. (And to a lesser extent imports.)
5. Goods being sent to the EU, even where the tariffs had little impact, would now be subject to checks and require paperwork to be filled. In the short term in particular, before smaller firms know what they are doing, that would likely have a negative impact on demand for British products in the short term.
6. The pound would almost certainly fall. While that might boost exports somewhat, it also means higher costs of electricity, and fuel. This will squeeze consumer spending.
7. Transport and travel would be disrupted. We would fall out of the EEA passport system, which means that UK citizens travelling abroad would likely need to fill out landing cards.
None of these things are - in themselves - massive. But cumulatively, they would be a hassle. More than 70% of British exports go to countries either in the EU, or where the EU has agreements. We've rolled over a few of the deals (albeit rarely as deeply as existing arrangements), and we need to do more.
* This could have, and should have, been sorted out earlier. But it was not.
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
To be honest these days surfing the web without a VPN is a bit like sleeping around without using a condom...at best there are going to be a load of people who know your dirty habits, at worst you are going to pick up something nasty.
The security services can increasingly crack VPNs anyway
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
Pornhub could probably do a better job of running the country than the current wonders in parliament
The story of mindgeek, the company who owns all the online filth sites is really fascinating.
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
To be honest these days surfing the web without a VPN is a bit like sleeping around without using a condom...at best there are going to be a load of people who know your dirty habits, at worst you are going to pick up something nasty.
The security services can increasingly crack VPNs anyway
Yes and no. That isn't the primary reason to use one anyway.
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, theal
WE ARE LESS THAN 10 DAYS Axit.
Just because you were 10 days away from Lehmans crashing did not mean the impact had yet been felt
Lehman's was a shock. Brexit is not. We know Brexit is coming, it's been coming for two years.
If someone had pre-announced that Lehman's was collapsing in two years time then when it did it would have affected the banking system a lot less as companies would have done what they needed to in order to get away from being affected by it.
Most people and the markets still do not expect crash out No Deal Brexit nor are they fully prepared for it if it comes
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, we have not even Brexited yet, let alone with No Deal
WE ARE LESS THAN 10 DAYS AWAY!
It should have impacted us by now. I swear even if there's a no deal brexit in less than 10 days time, by the end of April you'll find more ordinary people talking about the new season of Game of Thrones than you will Brexit.
I don't know anyone in business who expects us to leave with no deal in ten days time. Everyone is extremely sanguine about either a deal or an extension.
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
Really it isn't, we might think so because we're political nerds but life continues on as normal for almost everything else.
Not to mention few people are bothered about what happens in other countries.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, we have not even Brexited yet, let alone with No Deal
WE ARE LESS THAN 10 DAYS AWAY!
It should have impacted us by now. I swear even if there's a no deal brexit in less than 10 days time, by the end of April you'll find more ordinary people talking about the new season of Game of Thrones than you will Brexit.
Well I guess we can rule out damage so bad that the shockwaves travel back in time, so that's something
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.
Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.
England losing to Iceland at football would be a more widespread view of our ** 'national humiliation'.
** With apologies to non-English PBers.
Our reputation is in tatters today. We used to be solid, reliable types.
And we still are.
All of us not in Parliament.
There is a national flaw in that we like to blame others. We all own part of this mess. We need to grow up. We got into this mess because we blamed the EU.
Do you not think there is something fundamentally wrong with a free association causing this much pain and chaos to leave?
The problem stems from the notion sold in the referendum that we could leave with next to no economic and political damage. It turns out we can’t have our cake and eat it.
But so far we are leaving with next to no economic damage at least. We are now less than 10 days from Brexit supposedly and what damage has occured?
We are still in the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union, we have not even Brexited yet, let alone with No Deal
WE ARE LESS THAN 10 DAYS AWAY!
It should have impacted us by now. I swear even if there's a no deal brexit in less than 10 days time, by the end of April you'll find more ordinary people talking about the new season of Game of Thrones than you will Brexit.
Just because you were 10 days away from Lehmans crashing did not mean the impact had yet been felt
Lehman's was a shock. Brexit is not. We know Brexit is coming, it's been coming for two years.
If someone had pre-announced that Lehman's was collapsing in two years time then when it did it would have affected the banking system a lot less as companies would have done what they needed to in order to get away from being affected by it.
Well yes, that's what you would have thought. But here we are 10 days from Brexit and we still haven't done what we needed to do....
> A short extension, with a definitive end, is seen as risky in Whitehall because it could lead to a no-deal exit. > But it could potentially help the prime minister pass her deal by presenting a final challenge to her party: support her deal or guarantee a no-deal exit.
The Tories whose votes she need *want* a no-deal exit...
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
Pornhub could probably do a better job of running the country than the current wonders in parliament
The story of mindgeek, the company who owns all the online filth sites is really fascinating.
Just had a look. I did not know things were so monopolistic.
Right unless there's a legal change we're now officially 9 days from leaving the EU deal or no deal...
looks like we are heading to no deal. TM will not commit political suicide by revoking Brexit. she wont request long extension because her own party would split. She wont go second referendum or JC Brexit. the only option she has is to renegotiate her own deal which EU will not do. time is running out now, chances are we are leaving for a world trade deal. It will be short term disruption. but nothing like the doomsayers have predicted. Long term we will gain advantages over the EU , and see some real Brexit dividends. I don't think it will destroy the Tories. with a new leader they could become very popular.
Comments
Anyway time to wish everyone a pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
Plus they have trouble forecasting 2 years ahead let alone long term.
May's Deal takes us out without the economic damage and if our politicians had accepted it we wouldn't have had the political damage.
Corbyn: You must do as I say
Blackford: You must do as I say
Saville-Roberts: You must do as the SNP say
Lucas: You must do as..wait, why am I even here?
Dodds: Never, never...
May: We've not discussed any options yet...
Dodds: Don't interrupt me. Ahem. Never!
May: *sigh*. Someone wake up Vince please.
Umunna: I'll do it.
All: Who the f*ck invited the Tiggers?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6827525/Frustrated-wife-mocks-partner-spending-650-ahead-potential-No-Deal.html
Take a look at the "essentials" stockpiled
Good way to drift off for the night. Good night
https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-tells-supporters-he-plans-2020-bid-11553033380
The only strong GDP growth in the last decade was boosted by the oil price crash of 2014.
There's a story waiting to come out methinks...
Everyone's a winner Rodders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwaX_DgHZkM
They'll be too squeamish.
Given how imbalanced the UK economy is there's a trade-off between rebalancing and GDP growth.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/law-watching-porn-websites-uk-15575821
In summary: it would not be the end of the world. Food would not become scarce.
But it would be a nasty shock to the system. Not 2008 bad, but quite possibly 1990 bad.
Best chance of BINO is before we Brexit. Once we've Brexited all attention will switch to how Brexit goes. If its armageddon and the living envy the dead we'll be begging to get back in. If we look around and think "what was all the fuss about" we'll move on.
Realistically it will be somewhere inbetween but the one thing I'm confident in is that it won't be as bad as predicted. Nor as good as hoped for.
It should have impacted us by now. I swear even if there's a no deal brexit in less than 10 days time, by the end of April you'll find more ordinary people talking about the new season of Game of Thrones than you will Brexit.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Rock Hard Brexit etc
What has parliament not had time to do ? The economy in general except a couple of minimal changing pieces biannually by Phil ... And it goes well.
1. France halted Peru's AM39 (aka 'Exocet') deliveries in case they got donated to Argentina.
2. The DGSE in conjunction with MI6 were running around the world buying AM39s and components for the same reasons as 1.
3. Before the task force left the AdA provided 801NAS (one of the Sea Harrier squadrons) with dissimilar air combat training vs the Mirage/Magic combination to prepare them for crossing swords with Argentina. This helped a great deal.
I am not sure what more could have been expected from an ally other than them actually contributing forces to the task force. They were certainly more supportive of the UK than UK was in France's post imperial military adventures.
If someone had pre-announced that Lehman's was collapsing in two years time then when it did it would have affected the banking system a lot less as companies would have done what they needed to in order to get away from being affected by it.
Let's just quickly run down the immediate impacts:
1. Firms who have their European parent companies in the UK would want to relocate them to places protected by laws against double taxation and withholding taxes*. This would probably have a negative impact on net investment numbers of 0.5-0.75% in year one, and perhaps 0.25% in year two.
2. Our exports to the EU would now be subject to tariffs, similarly our exports to countries where the UK has not rolled over existing EU deals. This would have a small effect in some areas, and a bigger effect in others. (Where things cross the border repeatedly, like automotive components, there would be a significant impact.)
3. UK citizens in most EU countries would lost the right to live there. Now, this would probably be sorted out reasonably quickly. But it would still cause disruption to both us, and to EU countries.
4. There would not be competent regulatory authorities in some areas, and this would cause disruption to exports. (And to a lesser extent imports.)
5. Goods being sent to the EU, even where the tariffs had little impact, would now be subject to checks and require paperwork to be filled. In the short term in particular, before smaller firms know what they are doing, that would likely have a negative impact on demand for British products in the short term.
6. The pound would almost certainly fall. While that might boost exports somewhat, it also means higher costs of electricity, and fuel. This will squeeze consumer spending.
7. Transport and travel would be disrupted. We would fall out of the EEA passport system, which means that UK citizens travelling abroad would likely need to fill out landing cards.
None of these things are - in themselves - massive. But cumulatively, they would be a hassle. More than 70% of British exports go to countries either in the EU, or where the EU has agreements. We've rolled over a few of the deals (albeit rarely as deeply as existing arrangements), and we need to do more.
* This could have, and should have, been sorted out earlier. But it was not.
Always was that rumour she'd arranged some friendly fire to get over the 48-letter barrier :-)
> A short extension, with a definitive end, is seen as risky in Whitehall because it could lead to a no-deal exit.
> But it could potentially help the prime minister pass her deal by presenting a final challenge to her party: support her deal or guarantee a no-deal exit.
The Tories whose votes she need *want* a no-deal exit...