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If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?
I thought someone else, maybe Davis (not that I am a fan) should have taken over when Chequers was rejected. At least attempt a different approach.
Does sound like edmundintokyo could be needed though.
I've just read the most stupendous piece of general military history/socio-geopolitics, with added Darwinism, Ian Morris's: WAR
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00IOLFGEC/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Every page is full of startling insights, or the most gruesome yet compelling factoids. One of my favourites is about Genghis Khan.
We all know that the Mongols were hideously brutal - exterminating every living THING in conquered cities, down to the last cats, dogs and hens, but I never knew THIS: during a war, they would take the fat out of the slain corpses of their enemies, hurl it at the walls of enemy houses and buildings, then set fire to the human fat, thereby burning down the cities.
100% recommended. One of the best books of general history I have read in a decade.
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
Brexit has showed that the UK needs a solid Labour opposition...during Labour's leave of absence this period has been pervaded by Tory self indulgence on Europe which shows no sign of abating...
As it happens, the Mongols were really no more cruel than their Jin and Khwarezmian enemies. They were all appalling to civilians and prisoners.
But then we've had some odd ones, like allowing ineligible candidates so that when they win, the second place person wins by default.
The RBS disaster could have been averted. It should have been averted. It would have been averted had the regulators asked some pretty obvious and basic questions. The Dutch regulators were aware but were unable to do anything. The British regulators had their heads in the sand and their only contribution was to write a report on the disaster which managed not to mention their own inglorious role in the whole affair.
That AV?
An important point she made is that on any extension beyond the end of June, the UK would be required to put in place the legislation to take part in the EU elections by 21st April as that is the cut off date across Europe to confirm candidates.
I just cannot see that passing and without it the EU could not allow the UK to be a member as all their subsquent legislation would be voted by an illegitimate EU Parliament
Oh boy, is this complex and a mess
She added that the 27 are considering a final brexit meeting on the 28th March, the day before we leave on the 29th (are supposed to leave) to no doubt confirm extension or even no deal !!!!
Papa John's is launching a Marmite stuffed-crust pizza
https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/worklife/a26866745/papa-johns-marmite-stuffed-crust-pizza/
So yes I am blaming Labour for the Tories for being absolutely fucking useless on a profoundly monumental level
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So despite the unanimous support of my @CommonsForeign colleagues I have been purged by a vote of the House 199-134. Government had free vote. Labour were whipped. Thank you to those Labour MPs who defied the whip. This is a sad day for the independence of Select Committees.
SOUR GAPES!!!
After all without Chris Huhne's missus- he would have been LD leader at the 2015 election and we wouldn't be immersed now in Brexshit..
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1108097268094242816
Facebook has long since learned who you and your kids are and so won't get flagged.
This is the ONS data for retail sales volume from predominantly non-food stores ie not supermarkets and not internet but the High Street and shopping centre businesses which are often in the news for going bankrupt:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/eapv/drsi
Between 2013 and 2018 sales volume increased by 18%, between 2003 and 2018 sales volume increased by 41% and between 1988 (the Lawson Boom era of yuppies and Loadsamoney) and 2018 sales volume increased by 124%.
There might be many people and many retail businesses struggling but equally there are many people and many retail businesses doing very well.
Let's hope it's not a 9 month extension...
They have a machine that works out what looks bad. We finish up with perhaps 8k bad in 25k.
They're going to look at mostly ok photos, and that's even assuming that the degree to which the algorithms can discern good from bad is amazing.
I wonder if Huhne would have been so willing to betray students as Clegg was.
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
Much of what you suggest is not just infeasible, but actually it may be impossible. You'd finish up with too many spare 'degrees of freedom'.
I am reminded of a scene in a Woody Allen film, where the tennis ball hits the top of the cord and just goes over.
“Welcome to Europe Mrs May. What do you plan to do with the extension, if we allow you one at terrible confusion and cost to our economies and businesses”
‘Simples. I plan to hold a Leavers referendum. Just my deal on the paper.”
“And how does that avoid further cliff edge?”
“Forage-“
“What?”
“Alas dear Olly used to call him forage, before I had him thrown under a bus. Forage, Bozzy Bear, all the swivel eyed ERG will have to convincingly explain why my deal is not Brexit. Corby's vassalage+ policy will fall apart in the first five days of the campaign. They can’t simply go around as protesters and rabble rousers exploiting every little bit of dissatisfaction in UK today and promising the moon on a stick to everyone, not this time, not in a referendum like this. There will be some manoeuvre in Parliament to change the wording on the ballot to more than one option, but I have the numbers to defeat that, certainly prevent remain getting on it. But once I win, I certainly will, parliament will do the bidding of the people. Simples.”
“Indeed. Where did you get such a simple but clever plan?”
“I’d like to say it’s so similar to the way out of the situation in 75. But the truth is it was PoliticalBetting.com Britain’s most read blog on politics Monday 18th, when they discussed merits of a leaver referendum. The reincarnation of Merlin, in the guise of six dots has come to save me.”
“Very well. Off you go then.”
“Oh Johnny, before I go, run your fingers through my hair one last time.”
“Come to papa my difficult little Briton. Let us dance and forget about tomorrow’s problems.”
The Brexit Paradox is that to reach a compromise, people probably have to fear no deal actually happening.
Of course, that is the main reason so many MPs have fought to prevent Brexit despite pretending they were theoretically ok with it by triggering A50, in that any Brexit lets down the country in their eyes.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1108096507322998784
Whiff of panic coming back to them from their voters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election#Voting_issues
No Deal won't be so bad, we would just wind up signing a near identical deal after a few weeks
It makes no sense to have a short extension, with an option to extend. A long extension with an option of early exit makes much more logical sense.
Because there is also a further option that wasn’t part of the 2016 process, but as the 2016 process only asked a vague remain or leave without specific destination, a follow up ref to the people to endorse type and plan for leave perhaps in hindsight could have been part of the 2016 election as logical improvement, and clear conclusion of the process. Put crudely, where 2016 was advisory to representative democracy with the people answering, “we want to leave now get on an do it”, the tie up is the people shutting up the politicians just arguing forever “do this and do it now”.
A good example in the discussion was the previous referendum on changing the voting system; the question was not remain as we are or change to a fairer voting system, it specified AV as apparently better destination. The EU ref was a different beast without specifics on type of out, compared previous voting system ref where the two end points were explicitly clear. Referenda aren’t just referenda the process, question, role of the direct democracy in representative democracy can vary considerably. You could end up in trouble by not thinking it through before starting on the process.
So to move on from how we got here, Question now is can we alter the rules on this one or not? The conclusion to the debate prompted by my article was yes, if for a leave referendum rather than a remain referendum we can build on the previous ref with an option out of the impasse.
Crisis? What crisis? PB has sorted it.
We also know that there will be bad images that never get reviewed. We have to hope that the bad stuff there is an even tinier proportion.
This stuff is so basic in terms of the way the world works. Type I and Type II errors in statistics. It simply is the way things are.
That is a problem for May. Since a) she doesn't have a plan and b) she appears to hate planning.