What amuses me is the number of people at the BBFC who will basically have to watch and classify porn for a living. That'll be fun to explain at dinner parties.
Also, will we have a state body issuing wanking licences?
I believe I'm right in saying porn has led to many innovations in online tech like streaming video and payment services, so I'm sure it will adapt to this new law. Or people will just use VPNs
Pornhub could probably do a better job of running the country than the current wonders in parliament
The story of mindgeek, the company who owns all the online filth sites is really fascinating.
Just had a look. I did not know things were so monopolistic.
Not just that, but it incredibly secretive...nobody is really sure who really controls it, more shell companies than apple etc. It isn't even clear that the supposed founder actually was as much an owner as thought, as he mysteriously managed to get crazy amounts of money from somewhere to buy up some many sites.
Somehow some kid in his bedroom supposedly managed to buy up the whole of the filth industry, totally change the cost model for talent, and bust everybody else in a matter of a few years. Story does non compute....
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
As someone committed to leaving in 10 days. The current chaos is worse than any possible outcome which is why even a no deal is better than a lengthy extension (as is revocation) and yet unemployment falls to the lowest since 1971, employment is both the highest ever in absolute terms and getting close to our peace time record as a share of the adult population. The hysteria about Brexit continues to be massively overblown and counterproductive. But the deal is still the best way out from here.
And the deficit is now quite low too. The government has spent years fixing the roof while the sun wasn't even shining that brightly - if ever there were to be a time to risk a no deal exit this would be it.
Change in government debt by country, 2007-2017:
UK 45.80 US 42.41 France 32.50 Italy 32.00 Australia 29.70 Canada 23.30 Germany 0.40
Right unless there's a legal change we're now officially 9 days from leaving the EU deal or no deal...
looks like we are heading to no deal. TM will not commit political suicide by revoking Brexit. she wont request long extension because her own party would split. She wont go second referendum or JC Brexit. the only option she has is to renegotiate her own deal which EU will not do. time is running out now, chances are we are leaving for a world trade deal. It will be short term disruption. but nothing like the doomsayers have predicted. Long term we will gain advantages over the EU , and see some real Brexit dividends. I don't think it will destroy the Tories. with a new leader they could become very popular.
It won't be that either as there is no majority in Parliament for a WTO deal with the EU as well, if we end up with No Deal it will be short term and merely a staging post to SM and CU BINO or even worse rejoin the EU with the Euro etc, May's Deal is the most Brexity on offer
Right unless there's a legal change we're now officially 9 days from leaving the EU deal or no deal...
looks like we are heading to no deal. TM will not commit political suicide by revoking Brexit. she wont request long extension because her own party would split. She wont go second referendum or JC Brexit. the only option she has is to renegotiate her own deal which EU will not do. time is running out now, chances are we are leaving for a world trade deal. It will be short term disruption. but nothing like the doomsayers have predicted. Long term we will gain advantages over the EU , and see some real Brexit dividends. I don't think it will destroy the Tories. with a new leader they could become very popular.
It won't be that either as there is no majority in Parliament for a WTO deal with the EU as well, if we end up with No Deal it will be short term and merely a staging post to SM and CU BINO or even worse rejoin the EU with the Euro etc, May's Deal is the most Brexity on offer
if we no deal and a new leaver tory pm takes over and goes to country for a mandate I don't think we will BINO , we will refuse payment to EU , and dare them to do deal like Canada plus. they may refuse, but i think they will capitulate out of self interest in the end.they will get majority IMO
Right unless there's a legal change we're now officially 9 days from leaving the EU deal or no deal...
looks like we are heading to no deal. TM will not commit political suicide by revoking Brexit. she wont request long extension because her own party would split. She wont go second referendum or JC Brexit. the only option she has is to renegotiate her own deal which EU will not do. time is running out now, chances are we are leaving for a world trade deal. It will be short term disruption. but nothing like the doomsayers have predicted. Long term we will gain advantages over the EU , and see some real Brexit dividends. I don't think it will destroy the Tories. with a new leader they could become very popular.
It won't be that either as there is no majority in Parliament for a WTO deal with the EU as well, if we end up with No Deal it will be short term and merely a staging post to SM and CU BINO or even worse rejoin the EU with the Euro etc, May's Deal is the most Brexity on offer
if we no deal and a new leaver tory pm takes over and goes to country for a mandate I don't think we will BINO , we will refuse payment to EU , and dare them to do deal like Canada plus. they may refuse, but i think they will capitulate out of self interest in the end.they will get majority IMO
The EU will not do a Canada Deal for the UK without the backstop, only for GB, as 2017 proved the Tories are unlikely to get a majority on a hard Brexit platform
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
As someone committed to leaving in 10 days. The current chaos is worse than any possible outcome which is why even a no deal is better than a lengthy extension (as is revocation) and yet unemployment falls to the lowest since 1971, employment is both the highest ever in absolute terms and getting close to our peace time record as a share of the adult population. The hysteria about Brexit continues to be massively overblown and counterproductive. But the deal is still the best way out from here.
And the deficit is now quite low too. The government has spent years fixing the roof while the sun wasn't even shining that brightly - if ever there were to be a time to risk a no deal exit this would be it.
Change in government debt by country, 2007-2017:
UK 45.80 US 42.41 France 32.50 Italy 32.00 Australia 29.70 Canada 23.30 Germany 0.40
Right unless there's a legal change we're now officially 9 days from leaving the EU deal or no deal...
looks like we are heading to no deal. TM will not commit political suicide by revoking Brexit. she wont request long extension because her own party would split. She wont go second referendum or JC Brexit. the only option she has is to renegotiate her own deal which EU will not do. time is running out now, chances are we are leaving for a world trade deal. It will be short term disruption. but nothing like the doomsayers have predicted. Long term we will gain advantages over the EU , and see some real Brexit dividends. I don't think it will destroy the Tories. with a new leader they could become very popular.
It won't be that either as there is no majority in Parliament for a WTO deal with the EU as well, if we end up with No Deal it will be short term and merely a staging post to SM and CU BINO or even worse rejoin the EU with the Euro etc, May's Deal is the most Brexity on offer
if we no deal and a new leaver tory pm takes over and goes to country for a mandate I don't think we will BINO , we will refuse payment to EU , and dare them to do deal like Canada plus. they may refuse, but i think they will capitulate out of self interest in the end.they will get majority IMO
The EU will not do a Canada Deal for the UK without the backstop, only for GB, as 2017 proved the Tories are unlikely to get a majority on a hard Brexit platform
2017 was lost because of the death tax, not brexit
Blimey what a load of Corporal Jones's on here earlier this evening, admittedly virtually all of them members of the remainer fraternity. Mind you if the remainer panic attack reaches Westminster and prompts a few more opposition MPs into supporting the Deal then maybe it's not such a bad thing.
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EU
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.
As someone committed to leaving in 10 days. The current chaos is worse than any possible outcome which is why even a no deal is better than a lengthy extension (as is revocation) and yet unemployment falls to the lowest since 1971, employment is both the highest ever in absolute terms and getting close to our peace time record as a share of the adult population. The hysteria about Brexit continues to be massively overblown and counterproductive. But the deal is still the best way out from here.
And the deficit is now quite low too. The government has spent years fixing the roof while the sun wasn't even shining that brightly - if ever there were to be a time to risk a no deal exit this would be it.
Change in government debt by country, 2007-2017:
UK 45.80 US 42.41 France 32.50 Italy 32.00 Australia 29.70 Canada 23.30 Germany 0.40
Debt and deficit are very different words.
Ten years into an economic expansion you shouldn't be boasting of your deficit being a little smaller, you should be boasting about your surplus.
Over the cycle, debt-to-GDP should remain at a stable level. We've managed the worst performance - bar Japan - in the G8.
Edit to add: it gets worse. Almost all the other G8 countries have seen consumer and corporate debt levels reduce substantially. Not us. Wee hee!
"Ten years into an economic expansion you shouldn't be boasting of your deficit being a little smaller, you should be boasting about your surplus.
Over the cycle, debt-to-GDP should remain at a stable level. We've managed the worst performance - bar Japan - in the G8.
Edit to add: it gets worse. Almost all the other G8 countries have seen consumer and corporate debt levels reduce substantially. Not us. Wee hee!"
Odd that given you also read about the current corporate cash mountains. As for consumers a dose of higher interest rates might curb their appetite for debt. Whoops!
> A short extension, with a definitive end, is seen as risky in Whitehall because it could lead to a no-deal exit. > But it could potentially help the prime minister pass her deal by presenting a final challenge to her party: support her deal or guarantee a no-deal exit.
The Tories whose votes she need *want* a no-deal exit...
Blimey what a load of Corporal Jones's on here earlier this evening, admittedly virtually all of them members of the remainer fraternity. Mind you if the remainer panic attack reaches Westminster and prompts a few more opposition MPs into supporting the Deal then maybe it's not such a bad thing.
Yes - how ridiculously stupid people are to be panicking about this.
There is still plenty of time to sort this out - a full nine days in fact. And above all the process is in an eminently safe pair of hands. The same pair of hands that have got us into this position, in fact.
From the fuss people are making, anyone would think businesses needed to be able to plan several days - or even more - in advance. Why on earth can't they follow the example of our genius prime minister, and just come out with the first excuse that comes into their heads, to avoid making any kind of plan whatsoever?
Right unless there's a legal change we're now officially 9 days from leaving the EU deal or no deal...
looks like we are heading to no deal. TM will not commit political suicide by revoking Brexit. she wont request long extension because her own party would split. She wont go second referendum or JC Brexit. the only option she has is to renegotiate her own deal which EU will not do. time is running out now, chances are we are leaving for a world trade deal. It will be short term disruption. but nothing like the doomsayers have predicted. Long term we will gain advantages over the EU , and see some real Brexit dividends. I don't think it will destroy the Tories. with a new leader they could become very popular.
It won't be that either as there is no majority in Parliament for a WTO deal with the EU as well, if we end up with No Deal it will be short term and merely a staging post to SM and CU BINO or even worse rejoin the EU with the Euro etc, May's Deal is the most Brexity on offer
if we no deal and a new leaver tory pm takes over and goes to country for a mandate I don't think we will BINO , we will refuse payment to EU , and dare them to do deal like Canada plus. they may refuse, but i think they will capitulate out of self interest in the end.they will get majority IMO
The EU will not do a Canada Deal for the UK without the backstop, only for GB, as 2017 proved the Tories are unlikely to get a majority on a hard Brexit platform
2017 was lost because of the death tax, not brexit
If that was the case the Tories would have a big lead in all polls now having scrapped it
Here's the problem: if the conservative Party overthrows Mrs May to get someone more amenable to a No Deal Brexit, there is every possibility they lose they majority due to defections to the Tiggers.
Lots of people predicting No Deal Brexit on here tonight.
Yet No Deal Brexit still available at 7.6 on Betfair (almost unchanged over last few days)!
I'm already covered for no-deal on 29th March. What I'm not covered for is postpone-and-no-deal, which is looking increasingly likely. Unfortunately the Betfair Sportsbook odds terminate on the 29th, and (as previously explained) I don't do online betting, so I can't do Betfair Exchange. There is an interesting market on whether GBP will reach parity with EUR, but at this point it seems simpler to just buy EUR/USD.
We are still in the EU, the SM and the CU not crashing out of all overnight without any trading deal with our biggest trading partner
Who knows where we will be in 2 weeks time. If Brexit is going to have a material effect on the economy it should be absolutely evident by now. And yet the economy marches on, apparently unaffected.
Of course it won't be as the markets expect an extension and maybe no Brexit at all, if we crash out with No Deal in a week we could see a FTSE crash of 1929 or 2008 proportions. We still have not yet Brexited for goodness sake
Seriously, there are times where just for a moment I wish that we could have a no deal Brexit so we could all laugh at these predictions. But then I remember, unlike those in the House of Commons, I am a grown up.
You know, someone did a video on the consequences of No Deal Brexit...
In summary: it would not be the end of the world. Food would not become scarce.
But it would be a nasty shock to the system. Not 2008 bad, but quite possibly 1990 bad.
I think a no deal Brexit is sub-optimal. I think mini-deals would be in place either already (and they have been agreed in many cases) or almost immediately but there is no question that what remains collectively our largest trading partner would be royally pissed off.
There are a range of areas, specifically in respect of us rolling over EU trade deals, where that state of mind could make them (even more) difficult to deal with and that is not in our interests. Reluctance on their part to agree equivalence of regulation would also cause us issues and a short term shock to the economy which we can avoid with a deal. But the end of times it isn't. The likelihood of a recession taking hold in the EZ will have a bigger effect on our economy.
Here's the problem: if the conservative Party overthrows Mrs May to get someone more amenable to a No Deal Brexit, there is every possibility they lose they majority due to defections to the Tiggers.
Well that is one of the problems. There is also the likelihood of the DUP not backing a no deal Brexit which would create a hard border in NI meaning that there is no majority in Parliament. There simply aren't the numbers in Parliament for a no deal Brexit. It remains questionable whether there are the numbers for any kind of Brexit. I increasingly think not.
The worst possible outcome is a long extension with continued uncertainty and a repeat of the incentive to relocate that we have endured for the last 2 years discouraging investment and incentivising name plate switching to Dublin etc with potential impacts on our tax base. Our political class seem increasingly focused on achieving this. Inevitably.
Comments
Also, will we have a state body issuing wanking licences?
Somehow some kid in his bedroom supposedly managed to buy up the whole of the filth industry, totally change the cost model for talent, and bust everybody else in a matter of a few years. Story does non compute....
Over the cycle, debt-to-GDP should remain at a stable level. We've managed the worst performance - bar Japan - in the G8.
Edit to add: it gets worse. Almost all the other G8 countries have seen consumer and corporate debt levels reduce substantially. Not us. Wee hee!
"Ten years into an economic expansion you shouldn't be boasting of your deficit being a little smaller, you should be boasting about your surplus.
Over the cycle, debt-to-GDP should remain at a stable level. We've managed the worst performance - bar Japan - in the G8.
Edit to add: it gets worse. Almost all the other G8 countries have seen consumer and corporate debt levels reduce substantially. Not us. Wee hee!"
Odd that given you also read about the current corporate cash mountains. As for consumers a dose of higher interest rates might curb their appetite for debt. Whoops!
There is still plenty of time to sort this out - a full nine days in fact. And above all the process is in an eminently safe pair of hands. The same pair of hands that have got us into this position, in fact.
From the fuss people are making, anyone would think businesses needed to be able to plan several days - or even more - in advance. Why on earth can't they follow the example of our genius prime minister, and just come out with the first excuse that comes into their heads, to avoid making any kind of plan whatsoever?
Yet No Deal Brexit still available at 7.6 on Betfair (almost unchanged over last few days)!
There are a range of areas, specifically in respect of us rolling over EU trade deals, where that state of mind could make them (even more) difficult to deal with and that is not in our interests. Reluctance on their part to agree equivalence of regulation would also cause us issues and a short term shock to the economy which we can avoid with a deal. But the end of times it isn't. The likelihood of a recession taking hold in the EZ will have a bigger effect on our economy.
The worst possible outcome is a long extension with continued uncertainty and a repeat of the incentive to relocate that we have endured for the last 2 years discouraging investment and incentivising name plate switching to Dublin etc with potential impacts on our tax base. Our political class seem increasingly focused on achieving this. Inevitably.