politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brex
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It is time for William Hague as an emergency PM frankly to see us through until end of the year.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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It is default and we are in deadlock at home and with the EUAndyJS said:
Why do you think No Deal is likely?Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 6500 -
Well then you're hardly likely to disagree.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am well aware of what state of the art machine learning can and can not do, it's my job.Omnium said:
And who programs the machines? You'd be best not to believe that documentary. Algroithms may well go through 'all your stuff', but they'll see you as "Typical5". They'll be very good at saying whether a voucher for a discount in Asda will help Asda's revenues, but will have no idea or interest in whether you are 47ft tall and wear skin-tight underpants. Everyone else in the world would notice, but you'd be safe from them.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not according to this documentary. Remember machines have already gone through all of it and only stuff it doesn't like the look of it gets passed to the mods.Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
Facebook has long since learned who you and your kids are and so won't get flagged.
Much of what you suggest is not just infeasible, but actually it may be impossible. You'd finish up with too many spare 'degrees of freedom'.0 -
A different leader might dare to split the Tory party. She will never take that risk and so cannot move us forward.kle4 said:
All those points may be true, but the Tories cannot agree on what they want to do so any leader faces the same issues even if they handle them better. May's own actions have reached a point wherein the reasonable defences of her do not exculpate her, but it is still true that she did not create the pressures on the party that have led to such a state.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
Time for change. I am sick of all this.0 -
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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If the official leaving timetable is determined using EU time then so should the bet.edmundintokyo said:
I'd have to check the details but it sounds like it.Philip_Thompson said:
So that'd be a Sean win? Though only narrowly so?edmundintokyo said:
If the timezone wasn't specified I'd assume it meant whatever time British time was at the timeIanB2 said:
Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
I agree the lack of urgency is very concerning, but everyone is almost numb to it. No doubt half the Cabinet threatened to resign if she suggested one thing, and the other half threatened if she suggested something else. And they're more united than the party as a whole, which is more united than Parliament as a whole!Tyke said:What bothers me is the apparent lack of urgency. If she wants an extension, go and get it, but I entirely expect they have spent all afternoon faffing around over the letter.
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Regardless of what transpires in between, the fact that we are soon - in fact by tomorrow - going to be in single figures of days before the deadline, is going to *concentrate* a lot of minds around Britain and Europe, to put it mildly.Scott_P said:0 -
Probably not, but he is right.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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Is this where the hard-core ERG hold-outs go for the filibuster?NickPalmer said:
As I read this, it means that the SI must be laid (and thus our exit date known) by Monday. Since the WA won't be voted on until after Monday, that makes a short extension very problematic.rottenborough said:0 -
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I am not saying 25k are bad, but neither are they reviewing pictures of you or your kids (as ml is actually quite good at that given you will have uploaded tonnes of them)Omnium said:
Well then you're hardly likely to disagree.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am well aware of what state of the art machine learning can and can not do, it's my job.Omnium said:
And who programs the machines? You'd be best not to believe that documentary. Algroithms may well go through 'all your stuff', but they'll see you as "Typical5". They'll be very good at saying whether a voucher for a discount in Asda will help Asda's revenues, but will have no idea or interest in whether you are 47ft tall and wear skin-tight underpants. Everyone else in the world would notice, but you'd be safe from them.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not according to this documentary. Remember machines have already gone through all of it and only stuff it doesn't like the look of it gets passed to the mods.Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
Facebook has long since learned who you and your kids are and so won't get flagged.
Much of what you suggest is not just infeasible, but actually it may be impossible. You'd finish up with too many spare 'degrees of freedom'.
My point was having 8s to review each of 25k images every single is a hellish job and among that there will be a not insignificant number of horrendous disturbing stuff.0 -
"A devout Catholic and mother of five has been asked to attend a police interview after being accused of using the wrong pronoun to describe a transgender girl.
Caroline Farrow, was contacted by officers from the Surrey force to inform her they were investigating an allegation that she had made transphobic comments on Twitter."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/19/devout-catholic-interviewed-police-trans-twitter-row/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget0 -
"EU wants election or second referendum". ie Remain.Scott_P said:0 -
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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When you put it like that, there really are only a couple of nuclear options open to her (and her alleged team). Notwithstanding, she is one hell of a procrastinator. I don’t trust her to pull her head out of the sand and face the dire nature of the situation.kle4 said:
I agree the lack of urgency is very concerning, but everyone is almost numb to it. No doubt half the Cabinet threatened to resign if she suggested one thing, and the other half threatened if she suggested something else. And they're more united than the party as a whole, which is more united than Parliament as a whole!Tyke said:What bothers me is the apparent lack of urgency. If she wants an extension, go and get it, but I entirely expect they have spent all afternoon faffing around over the letter.
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I hope she remembers to say pleaseScott_P said:0 -
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Literally none of my friends and work colleagues are panicking.rottenborough said:
We need more Snells:Philip_Thompson said:
Good. Then it may be avoided.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
The Brexit Paradox is that to reach a compromise, people probably have to fear no deal actually happening.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1108096507322998784
Whiff of panic coming back to them from their voters.
We are united though in thinking that the political class are absolutely useless.0 -
That's fine, I just wish that we could be confident the situation would improve as a result. Remarkably, we cannot, because while her choices (and lack thereof) have caused so many problems, the underlying facts are the same.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
I wouldn't trust her to throw a grenade after pulling the pin, as she hesitated about which way to throw it.Tyke said:
When you put it like that, there really are only a couple of nuclear options open to her (and her alleged team). Notwithstanding, she is one hell of a procrastinator. I don’t trust her to pull her head out of the sand and face the dire nature of the situation.kle4 said:
I agree the lack of urgency is very concerning, but everyone is almost numb to it. No doubt half the Cabinet threatened to resign if she suggested one thing, and the other half threatened if she suggested something else. And they're more united than the party as a whole, which is more united than Parliament as a whole!Tyke said:What bothers me is the apparent lack of urgency. If she wants an extension, go and get it, but I entirely expect they have spent all afternoon faffing around over the letter.
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And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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I think whoever designed that system really ought to have a look at Brexit to see what improvements he or she can identify.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.0 -
might be finally running out of roadPhilip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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I believe the 2018 Withdrawal Act repealed the "existing legislation".anothernick said:
Would new legislation be required for the UK to hold European elections? If we have not left the EU by the relevant date surely the existing legislation would automatically trigger the elections?Big_G_NorthWales said:Having just listened to Katya Adler, BBC Europe correspondent and one of the best on the subject of brexit, she confirms the frustration and dismay throughout the EU 27 with mixed views on options for an extension.
An important point she made is that on any extension beyond the end of June, the UK would be required to put in place the legislation to take part in the EU elections by 21st April as that is the cut off date across Europe to confirm candidates.
I just cannot see that passing and without it the EU could not allow the UK to be a member as all their subsquent legislation would be voted by an illegitimate EU Parliament
Oh boy, is this complex and a mess
She added that the 27 are considering a final brexit meeting on the 28th March, the day before we leave on the 29th (are supposed to leave) to no doubt confirm extension or even no deal !!!!0 -
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For a longer extension yes, which means a Corbyn minority government assuming May is not going to win the landslide she needs or the passage of the Kyle amendment most likelyScott_P said:0 -
I would expect there are not only political considerations but a minefield of law involvedsolarflare said:
I hope she remembers to say pleaseScott_P said:0 -
A general election with any change outside of May’s deal or No Deal requires a EU Parliament vote as well.kle4 said:
"EU wants election or second referendum". ie Remain.Scott_P said:
A second referendum definitely requires an EU Parliament vote due to the timescales.
In fact any delay beyond June requires EU Parliamentary elections in May.
Things are getting tight and we seem to be missing obvious things.0 -
I agree. That's essentially what MPs were told when they agreed to extend as well.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Oh god - now we are in trouble :-)bigjohnowls said:0 -
I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.0
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Is what I've been betting on for ages.nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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There do seem to be legal and procedural hurdles in the way of practically every other way out, and for some only slim chances of parliamentary majorities to overcome those hurdles. Which is self fulfilling for no deal as well, since the more it looks likely we might stumble out without a deal the more ERGers have no reason to back anything the government suggests, and hell would freeze over before Labour 'rescued' the government by voting for a solution which does not fit their own ends, and vice versa.nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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I told them that back in 2016.kle4 said:
I agree. That's essentially what MPs were told when they agreed to extend as well.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
We're going to need a job lot of those 29th March Brexit Day badges.....nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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oldpolitics said:
I believe the 2018 Withdrawal Act repealed the "existing legislation".
Yep - some others are only repealed on 29/March, that one is already in force.
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Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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I agree and am getting very concernedkle4 said:
There do seem to be legal and procedural hurdles in the way of practically every other way out, and for some only slim chances of parliamentary majorities to overcome those hurdles. Which is self fulfilling for no deal as well, since the more it looks likely we might stumble out without a deal the more ERGers have no reason to back anything the government suggests, and hell would freeze over before Labour 'rescued' the government by voting for a solution which does not fit their own ends, and vice versa.nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Darling Fascist Bully Boysolarflare said:
I hope she remembers to say pleaseScott_P said:
Give me some more money you bastard.
May the seed of your loin be fruitful in the belly of your woman.
T May0 -
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Still zero sign of even another half dozen Lab MPs being willing to rescue the government I see.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/11081150701214023680 -
Le deluge.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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May needs to just back the Labour plan now for the sake of the country. The Tory and Labour loyalist votes will be more than enough. Place a motion endorsing a permanent customs union being added to the WA as a codicil, and ask the EU to approve the delay.0
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This Brexit malarkey was always going to go down to the wire with people (especially nerdy politics watchers) getting ridiculously emotional as we get to the bitter end.
I work in a business where we do trade with the continent and Brexit is never mentioned. Heidelberg were over from Germany today looking to sell us a new press. No drama.0 -
David Pannick says revocation would require primary legislation.WhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
So that card might be as useful as the cards Gove said we held.0 -
And anyone else is dramatically less popular with the publicPhilip_Thompson said:
Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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Other businesses have already reduced investment in Britain in favour of the Continent, however.Fenster said:This Brexit malarkey was always going to go down to the wire with people (especially nerdy politics watchers) getting ridiculously emotional as we get to the bitter end.
I work in a business where we do trade with the continent and Brexit is never mentioned. Heidelberg were over from Germany today looking to sell us a new press. No drama.0 -
Tories out of power for a generation then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is what I've been betting on for ages.nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Hilariously, Boris will become LOTO and never make his dream of PM.
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What is this madness?!
Players' shirts will feature their name and squad number for the first time in 142 years of Test cricket when England host Australia in this summer's Ashes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/47623980
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A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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It's possible that May doesn't want Labour to budge because she wants to hang the Tory Brexiteers out to dry.kle4 said:Still zero sign of even another half dozen Lab MPs being willing to rescue the government I see.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/11081150701214023680 -
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Irrelevant. And also meaningless since whoever replaces her will be judged by their tenure as PM and not by how they're viewed now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And anyone else is dramatically less popular with the publicPhilip_Thompson said:
Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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On the positive side it destroys the British eurosceptic movement, so we'll have rejoined within a decade, replete with the single currency.rottenborough said:
Tories out of power for a generation then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is what I've been betting on for ages.nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Hilariously, Boris will become LOTO and never make his dream of PM.0 -
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I don't think this at all true. It would be seen badly, and would substantially damage the party's reputation. It would too cause short-term chaos. Emerging from that though things might not be so bleak.WhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
The real rocks along the shore are revocation or (less so) another referendum. Breaking the political terms of trade can't be a good idea.
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On the other hand the EU would probably secretly like to get us to stay somehow.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is default and we are in deadlock at home and with the EUAndyJS said:
Why do you think No Deal is likely?Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 6500 -
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Will May want be the PM who not only let the UK crash out with no deal but also gambled with peace in NI .
We’ll find out next week .0 -
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Newsnight to the theme of All Saints’ Never Ever. Brill.0
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Omnium said:
I don't think this at all true. It would be seen badly, and would substantially damage the party's reputation. It would too cause short-term chaos. Emerging from that though things might not be so bleak.WhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
The real rocks along the shore are revocation or (less so) another referendum. Breaking the political terms of trade can't be a good idea.
I would suggest to you that the idea that no-deal would only cause short-term chaos is very, very optimistic indeed.
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You may turn out to be very wise in that. (Just my view)WhisperingOracle said:Omnium said:
I don't think this at all true. It would be seen badly, and would substantially damage the party's reputation. It would too cause short-term chaos. Emerging from that though things might not be so bleak.WhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
The real rocks along the shore are revocation or (less so) another referendum. Breaking the political terms of trade can't be a good idea.
I would suggest to you that the idea that no-deal would only cause short-term chaos is very, very optimistic indeed.0 -
The PM faces a Catch 22, with Brussels refusing to sign off a new compromise that ensures the backstop is only temporary until Mrs May can demonstrate a majority for it in Parliament.Scott_P said:
On this, and other matters in this latest drama, while overall I think May has exhausted any sympathy that she may have once deserves, I do have residual sympathy in that right up to the Cabinet table she is being faced with demands which are diametrically opposed even where they might be possible. Quite why those making these opposing demands of her cannot see that and have not been prepared to move to plan B sooner I do not know - there seems no point forcing May to do X or you'll resign if that alienates enough others than she cannot do X anyway.0 -
Somebody do something about these fanatical idiots!Scott_P said:0 -
... massively affecting the employment stats.WhisperingOracle said:
Other businesses have already reduced investment in Britain in favour of the Continent, however.Fenster said:This Brexit malarkey was always going to go down to the wire with people (especially nerdy politics watchers) getting ridiculously emotional as we get to the bitter end.
I work in a business where we do trade with the continent and Brexit is never mentioned. Heidelberg were over from Germany today looking to sell us a new press. No drama.
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Predictions of parties being out of power 'for a generation' rarely prove accurate.rottenborough said:
Tories out of power for a generation then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is what I've been betting on for ages.nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
Hilariously, Boris will become LOTO and never make his dream of PM.
For example:
' Mervyn King is warning that the victor in next week's election will be forced into austerity measures that will keep the party out of power for a generation, according to the US economist David Hale.
Dragging the Bank of England governor unwittingly into Britain's political battle, David Hale said he had been told by King at a private lunch about the likely fiscal pain ahead. '
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/29/mervyn-king-warns-election-victor0 -
They may not be PM for more than a few daysPhilip_Thompson said:
Irrelevant. And also meaningless since whoever replaces her will be judged by their tenure as PM and not by how they're viewed now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And anyone else is dramatically less popular with the publicPhilip_Thompson said:
Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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Can she at least admit her deal is indeed dead if, even now, Lab MPs and the ERG are still pushing their own options rather than backing hers? That recognition would at least be a step.Scott_P said:
It's remarkable how despised the deal is that even now there is nowhere near a majority for it even if they could vote on it. No urgency from anyone either.0 -
I don't think it's just the eurosceptics reputation that is being destroyed, it's the whole damn house. All of them, useless.0
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AbsolutelyPulpstar said:I don't think it's just the eurosceptics reputation that is being destroyed, it's the whole damn house. All of them, useless.
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It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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The mail seems to be working on a plan to make revoke possible early next week?Scott_P said:
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Yup, I've been holding off selling some GBP on the basis that the upside (no brexit) is quite a bit more likely than the downside (clown car crash brexit) but Britain is very much a country that's swallowed a bomb and given the detonator to a monkey.viewcode said:
I hope it stays unworried. Im thinking of buying USD/EUR over the weekend. We are so close to B-day now the chances of an accidental no-deal departure is too high for my liking...Andrew said:Sterling seems remarkably nonplussed by all these sudden obstacles.
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It is 100% May's fault she is facing diametrically opposing views at the Cabinet table. She has appointed those with diametrically opposing views to the Cabinet and refused to lead or make a decision.kle4 said:
The PM faces a Catch 22, with Brussels refusing to sign off a new compromise that ensures the backstop is only temporary until Mrs May can demonstrate a majority for it in Parliament.Scott_P said:
On this, and other matters in this latest drama, while overall I think May has exhausted any sympathy that she may have once deserves, I do have residual sympathy in that right up to the Cabinet table she is being faced with demands which are diametrically opposed even where they might be possible. Quite why those making these opposing demands of her cannot see that and have not been prepared to move to plan B sooner I do not know - there seems no point forcing May to do X or you'll resign if that alienates enough others than she cannot do X anyway.
May should act like a leader and come down on one side or the other. Face the sackings and rebellions, stand up and be counted. Those who get sacked will quickly be yesterday's news - like David Davis and even BoJo - but by keeping them in the Cabinet until now and keeping herself and the government paralysed she has quite simply failed.0 -
Nick Watt: May 22nd is the date says EU sources. No longer delay.0
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Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
With May the chief architect.Big_G_NorthWales said:
AbsolutelyPulpstar said:I don't think it's just the eurosceptics reputation that is being destroyed, it's the whole damn house. All of them, useless.
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All May needs to do is to get the Kyle amendment to pass through the Commons so that her deal can pass on the basis that there’s a second referendum.
It’s the simplest, cleanest way forward. She can then step down having done half a job but at least have some recognition for securing a deal. After all, for all the finger pointing, she’s the only bugger out of them all to put something firm on the table.0 -
Labourite selling our future for a few beans today. And you wonder why this country hasn’t put Labour in power for over a decade...Freggles said:May needs to just back the Labour plan now for the sake of the country. The Tory and Labour loyalist votes will be more than enough. Place a motion endorsing a permanent customs union being added to the WA as a codicil, and ask the EU to approve the delay.
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Brexit is over of there is a GEHYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Battle of Tours. If Charles Martel hadn't won, we'd have had a fully Muslim Europe for centuries.tyson said:
The What If's....A very famous sudden storm once displaced a formidable fleet attacking through the English Channel..without which we would be possibly some Spanish speaking, catholic outpost...another_richard said:
Didn't Clegg beat Huhne for the LibDem leadership in 2008 only because a postal strike delayed the return of postal ballots ?tyson said:
One could quite credibly argue that driving points matter.Sean_F said:
Maybe the same will happen in Peterborough.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
After all without Chris Huhne's missus- he would have been LD leader at the 2015 election and we wouldn't be immersed now in Brexshit..
I wonder if Huhne would have been so willing to betray students as Clegg was.
If Ghengiz Khan hadn't died when he did, we'd be mostly dead.
Operation Barbarossa. If Hitler hadn't invaded Russia, we'd be eighty years into a thousand year Reich.
The list is endless... 0 -
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If it leads to PM Corbyn of course it will as he will renegotiate propped up by the SNP on the basis of permanent Customs Union and SM elements ie an even less Brexity Deal than May's Deal. Given No Deal will be an utter disaster anyway economically whatever the government does a general election will make little difference and at least offers the opportunity of a new government, we know the likes of Boles and Soubry have said they will VONC the government rather than accept No Deal and I expect them to do soPhilip_Thompson said:
A VONC now would be too little, too late. If there's no deal we're out automatically by Friday of next week and a VONC won't change that. If there's no deal then the government will need to be running in crisis mode to deal with the aftershocks of that occuring and it'd be irresponsible in the extreme to go into purdah during that.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Indeed. Those I find particularly repugnant are those who have voted against May's deal to show how "principled" (other words are available) they are and are now belatedly realising the consequences of their stupidity and bemoaning the fact that they are being denied the chance to be "pragmatic". They really are the scum of the earth and I will vote for literally anyone who stands against them at the next election. They couldn't run a bath, they really couldn't.Pulpstar said:I don't think it's just the eurosceptics reputation that is being destroyed, it's the whole damn house. All of them, useless.
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If not, so be it. At least something will be happening, something will be changing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They may not be PM for more than a few daysPhilip_Thompson said:
Irrelevant. And also meaningless since whoever replaces her will be judged by their tenure as PM and not by how they're viewed now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And anyone else is dramatically less popular with the publicPhilip_Thompson said:
Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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+1another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0 -
Brexit in any meaningful form certainlyBig_G_NorthWales said:
Brexit is over of there is a GEHYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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The prospect of Boris as PM isn't an enticing one IMO.Philip_Thompson said:
If not, so be it. At least something will be happening, something will be changing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They may not be PM for more than a few daysPhilip_Thompson said:
Irrelevant. And also meaningless since whoever replaces her will be judged by their tenure as PM and not by how they're viewed now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And anyone else is dramatically less popular with the publicPhilip_Thompson said:
Leadership election. She either stays on for duration of leadership election (as Cameron did) or resigns with immediate effect and a caretaker PM takes over for its duration. Probably the former.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And then what.Philip_Thompson said:
She's failed. She'll be gone/going within a fortnight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not going to happen.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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Well it is no deal or no Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. The only question is are remainers competent enough to overcome the legal hurdles in time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Brexit is over if there is a GEHYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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You've got to feel for the MEP being interviewed on Newsnight - pointed out 2 years of pissing about, now coming back 10 days from the brink to ask for something, but they don't know what.0
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It won't last long as Corbyn will likely be PM moving rapidly to CU and SM BINOrottenborough said:
No they wont. A No Deal catastrophe, and that is what it will be, will mean most leavers will forget all about their vote to leave. They will be too busy panicking about paying their mortgage now they have lost their job.HYUFD said:
It wouldn't as Leavers would rally behind Leader of the Opposition Boris while PM Corbyn gets on with negotiating permanent CU and SM elements BINO with the EUWhisperingOracle said:
No deal would destroy the Conservatives' electoral chances for 20-30 years, which is why I don't think Theresa May will allow it. She still holds the revocation card, as the last fallback and most nuclear option.HYUFD said:
Which likely leads to a general election within weeks given enough Tory diehard anti No Dealers like Boles will VONC the government rather than accept that and most likely a Corbyn Labour-SNP government shortly after and SM and CU BINO or EUref2nielh said:I think the probability must be increasing that we just leave without a deal.
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Oh no this is a humiliation for us all.another_richard said:
Its not a national humiliation its a humiliation of our political class.Scott_P said:
And well deserved too.
Although it is revealing that out political class regard themselves as the nation, very Louis IV.0
