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Just when you thought it was a mismatch - up pops Cherry.0
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That's correct. No lawyer will ever say there's no risk, or that you are certain to win.TheWhiteRabbit said:0 -
Lab to Green swing means only one thing: Jezza's lack of interest in Remaining is costing him.Gallowgate said:
Oh Labour...david_herdson said:0 -
Indeed which is why any changes in who becomes favourite after the vacancy becomes apparent shouldn't count.david_herdson said:
Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point.Philip_Thompson said:
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.HYUFD said:Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
But yes, I think Boris was favourite at the moment at which the vacancy became apparent. I don't know what the score was in 2003 but it wasn't obvious that there would be a coronation and there was certainly speculation that David Davis would be a strong contender.0 -
Mr Observer,
"It’s stark for the ERG and DUP - humiliate themselves or lose Brexit. Are they patriots, or not?"
Lose Brexit means losing faith in our political democracy. It was always a fragile thing anyway, so … so be it.
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And, he may favour No Deal, because he thinks the worst is best.El_Capitano said:
He might be, or as ever with Osborne, he might be conniving to his own ends. If I were a Remainer wanting the ERG to shoot themselves (and Brexit) in the foot, his editorial is exactly what I'd write.Stark_Dawning said:
Ozzy seems to be suggesting that the Ultras have played a blinder and just need to hold their nerve for No Deal to be upon us. I think he's right.Scott_P said:0 -
He couldn't say anything else from the dispatch box.TGOHF said:Cox says vote for the deal.
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Boris did not stand in the end, so yes May was favourite of the declared candidates.Philip_Thompson said:
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.HYUFD said:Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
In any case given if the Deal fails Brexit is likely to be cancelled or in such a BINO form as to be worthless given the numbers in the Commons the Tories will need Boris to lead them to contain the inevitable surge to the Farage Brexit Party and UKIP0 -
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.Anorak said:
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.brokenwheel said:
You mean like it brought down the government last time?Anorak said:
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.brendan16 said:
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?Philip_Thompson said:
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.rottenborough said:ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?0 -
Yep. That’s it in a nutshell.TheWhiteRabbit said:0 -
SNP set to lose Holyrood majorityTheuniondivvie said:A wee distraction from the clusterfuck.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1105442730203844613
Looks like Ross 'SNPgain' Thomson may not deserve his nickname. We'll just stick with 'touchy' then.
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1105386458561564672?s=200 -
That's completely meaningless. So May was not favourite.HYUFD said:
Boris did not stand in the end, so yes May was favourite of the declared candidates.Philip_Thompson said:
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.HYUFD said:Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
In any case given if the Deal fails Brexit is likely to be cancelled or in such a BINO form as to be worthless given the numbers in the Commons the Tories will need Boris to lead them to contain the inevitable surge to the Farage Brexit Party and UKIP
Of today's candidates who's going to stand? We don't know.0 -
I think thats a certainity....david_herdson said:
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.Anorak said:
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.brokenwheel said:
You mean like it brought down the government last time?Anorak said:
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.brendan16 said:
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?Philip_Thompson said:
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.rottenborough said:ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?0 -
The deal comes down to trusting the EU. I trust them to look after themselves but no one else. So that's a 'no'.0
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I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.david_herdson said:
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.Anorak said:
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.brokenwheel said:
You mean like it brought down the government last time?Anorak said:
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.brendan16 said:
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?Philip_Thompson said:
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.rottenborough said:ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?0 -
No it is not meaningless, May was favourite of the declared candidates. End of conversation.Philip_Thompson said:
That's completely meaningless. So May was not favourite.HYUFD said:
Boris did not stand in the end, so yes May was favourite of the declared candidates.Philip_Thompson said:
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.HYUFD said:Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
In any case given if the Deal fails Brexit is likely to be cancelled or in such a BINO form as to be worthless given the numbers in the Commons the Tories will need Boris to lead them to contain the inevitable surge to the Farage Brexit Party and UKIP
Of today's candidates who's going to stand? We don't know.
If Brexit is cancelled, as is likely if the Deal is rejected, obviously the Tories have to.pick a hard Leaves like Boris or Raab or risk being eclipsed by the new Farage Party or UKIP0 -
So Cox has bottled it and sold the country a pup. Exactly what everybody expected since the crap deal was proposed. He must have gone and got Tony's AG rule book out of the cupboard.DavidL said:
Yep. That’s it in a nutshell.TheWhiteRabbit said:0 -
Snatching defeat etc.rottenborough said:0 -
I have this vision of a po-faced German civil servant having to explain to Angela Merkel what a codpiece is.0
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New thread.0
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Yep. If anything a narrow defeat would be seen by May as license to continue her game of chicken, which increases the chance of no deal (especially if we get a short extension, as we'd be unlikely to then get another). That could then force Remain-/soft Brexit-leaning Tories to move against her.rottenborough said:
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.david_herdson said:
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.Anorak said:
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.brokenwheel said:
You mean like it brought down the government last time?Anorak said:
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.brendan16 said:
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?Philip_Thompson said:
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.rottenborough said:ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?0 -
Silver linings, etcTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
NEW THREAD
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Voting against No Deal doesn't prevent No Deal, any more than voting against the sun setting will stop it getting dark.rottenborough said:
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.david_herdson said:
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.Anorak said:
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.brokenwheel said:
You mean like it brought down the government last time?Anorak said:
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.brendan16 said:
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?Philip_Thompson said:
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.rottenborough said:ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?
Only voting *for* some practical measure that will prevent No Deal, will prevent it. As the law stands, Britain leaves the EU a fortnight on Friday, with or without a deal: parliamentary motions won't change that - only an extension, a revocation, or parliamentary ratification of a WA/FR deal.0 -
Although Survation had them 7 points up in the most recent other poll?!Gallowgate said:
Oh Labour...david_herdson said:0 -
Spin nudging back up to 257.
Did my best trying to guesstimate a distribution, and it looks to be near flat between about 230 and 290 - ie two peaks with the trough inbetween filled in considerably.0 -
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Bill Cash effectively saying he will oppose0
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Indeed. pointless to argue or again . People were clear if his advice changed theyd think about it. May failed, end of .Philip_Thompson said:
He said it last time too.TGOHF said:Cox says vote for the deal.
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Well I can't speak for Sam Gyimah, but as a remainer up until last November I was very much in favour of the deal. I'd have preferred permanent membership of the customs union but the backstop seemed like at least a way of staying in it until things calmed down a bit.Richard_Tyndall said:
They are not interested in any form of Brexit at all.Sean_F said:
One thing that puzzles me is why should any supporter of Remain, like Sam Gyimah, have a problem with the backstop? Surely, it has the effect of softening, rather than hardening, Brexit.
But back then there didn't seem any realistic way of getting out of Brexit altogether. The only democratic way was a second vote - and the result of that was about 50:50. And who wants to win a referendum on a narrow margin anyway?
But since the new year all the shenanigans have undermined support for Brexit to such an extent that stopping the whole sorry episode now looks realistic.0 -
I'm not sure that's true. It's entirely possible that a person may be elected without ever having been favourite. Popes are the obvious example.david_herdson said:
Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point....Philip_Thompson said:
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.HYUFD said:Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
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I'm still hoping (for the Lolz more than anything) that Sinn Fein will rock up this afternoon and take the oath (fingers crossed of course). That'd throw the cat in amongst the pigeons.Sandpit said:
On the contrary, there’s now three fewer Conservatives. Unless of course TIG decide to vote with the government? If they abstain, the government would fall with the DUP opposed.Sean_F said:
I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.Sandpit said:
If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.IanB2 said:BBC BREAKING: DUP likely to vote against
A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.0 -
Not if you need the EU's permission for an extension. If you need their permission they will determine the basis on which the extension is granted.CarlottaVance said:
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
Ignore this: Wikipedia had inserted a poll from last year into the 2019 stats. Annoyingly, I did go into the article linked as it seemed very odd but when it checked out, I accepted it. Should have checked the dates!david_herdson said:
Although Survation had them 7 points up in the most recent other poll?!Gallowgate said:
Oh Labour...david_herdson said:0 -
The Vatican tends to be less open to polling during the process!viewcode said:
I'm not sure that's true. It's entirely possible that a person may be elected without ever having been favourite. Popes are the obvious example.david_herdson said:
Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point....Philip_Thompson said:
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.HYUFD said:Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
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Mrs May has negotiated a deal that relies extensively on the EU's good faith. The problem has always been that Leavers really don't trust the EU, but the Remainers do.
Tony's Blair's "We'll give back some of our rebate if you revise the CAP" was a classic of naïve meeting hard-headed EU practice. Sending soft, fluffy EU-fans who trust those nice men in Brussels was never going to end well.
Blair, Cammo, and May have found that out. Given their history, why would Leavers trust them?0 -
A real sense of frustration seems to be growing against the ERG by some who previously voted against but are now voting for it. I think the ERG may well be in the process of destroying their own dream .
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This discussion has been closed.