Could we end up in the inadvertent and unfortunate position tonight whereby the deal just squeaks through but with the DUP unanimously against?
That might enable Brexit, but where would that leave the Union and the confidence and supply deal?
You'd still think it unlikely this will get through post Cox, but I think most Brexiteers now recognise reality and that it's either this deal or something considerably worse from their perspective.
I really despair. I feel we are going to end up with something even more "worst of both worlds" than May's deal - absolute vassalage, which was ultimately the reason I held my nose and reluctantly voted Remain, in the hope of preventing that.
If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.
A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.
Despite what they might say now, I really doubt most of the "Labour Independents" would be stupid enough to put down their names as supporting a Tory government, if they want any hopes of holding their seats.
The only exception I think would be Ian Austin (as well as John Woodcock and Ivan Lewis, like last time).
If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.
A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.
On the contrary, there’s now three fewer Conservatives. Unless of course TIG decide to vote with the government? If they abstain, the government would fall with the DUP opposed.
As a pragmatic leaver, who accepts we won't get a perfect Brexit, I really despair. How can May have stood up on the podium with Juncker and not made sure that Cox would sign this off first?
If the deal goes down in flames, the only way I can see forward is to get an extension and then May stands down. A quick turnaround Con leadership election and then maybe a GE in May.
Game over for May then. Its remain in a few months.
Like others I'm baffled Cox's view was not confirmed prior to an announcement. What a waste of time, and the EU will be furious when the deal is hugely defeated again.
Personally and politically that must have been incredibly hard for Cox. It’s now time for the ERG to grow up. What are the chances?
In the end, you always do better to do the right thing rather than the easy thing. Geoffrey Cox will not regret having given the opinion he did this morning.
It's not his fault if others decide not to follow his advice.
Could we end up in the inadvertent and unfortunate position tonight whereby the deal just squeaks through but with the DUP unanimously against?
That might enable Brexit, but where would that leave the Union and the confidence and supply deal?
You'd still think it unlikely this will get through post Cox, but I think most Brexiteers now recognise reality and that it's either this deal or something considerably worse from their perspective.
I really despair. I feel we are going to end up with something even more "worst of both worlds" than May's deal - absolute vassalage, which was ultimately the reason I held my nose and reluctantly voted Remain, in the hope of preventing that.
If I were a Tory MP I would vote against since Cox's statement.
There must be many actual Tory MPs who think similarly.
As a pragmatic leaver, who accepts we won't get a perfect Brexit, I really despair. How can May have stood up on the podium with Juncker and not made sure that Cox would sign this off first?
If the deal goes down in flames, the only way I can see forward is to get an extension and then May stands down. A quick turnaround Con leadership election and then maybe a GE in May.
That sounds like a reasonable series of events.
Mrs May should have realised the deal was a dodo back in January, I can’t see any progress now with her remaining in place.
The Deal has barely had a pulse since it was "Chequers".
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension.
They have two reasons to agree to an extension:
1. They'd be hit badly by the chaos of us crashing out with no deal. At the very least they'd want some more time to put in place further mitigation measures (they haven't done much yet). Anyway, disaster deferred is always preferable for a politician than disaster next week.
2. Extension for a 'political event' (GE or referendum) could well lead to us not leaving after all, which is by far their preferred outcome.
1. I’m not sure the EU 27 sees it that way, and it is after all the 27 that must agree.
2. But they need parliament / government to support a referendum / GE before the 29th. Not sure I see that happening.
When they come to write the Curious History of the Brexit That Never Happened, a good left field title would be
TIM SHIPMAN HAS DELETED THE CODPIECE TWEET
That will be for Volume Two. Volume One will be called THE SECOND "TWAT".
I would so buy that book. In an otherwise sorry process the second "twat" provided a rare source of unbridled joy as well as perfectly summarising the whole shit show.
Take it you’re referring to Danny Dyer. Did he say TWAT twice?!
Gloriously, yes. Lobs it in like a verbal grenade. I think others have posted the link. The timing, the absolute disdain, the slight elongation of the final "t" at the end of the word, it is utter perfection. Danny Dyer's a wonderful actor and this is his finest performance.
I suspect the clearer it becomes that the deal isn't passing, the more of these guys will go back to the No column. No point sticking their neck out to change the third digit of the majority against.
Good call for those who sold at 266 earlier. Sadly not me this time.
I was tempted to buy at 278 just before Cox's statement came out. Despite not having a high opinion of her, I didn't believe May could be that arrogant to sign a deal with such fanfare without Cox signing off on it first.
One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.
Haven't TIG said they want to run in every seat? That already means they've responded to the Lib Dems' friendliness by spitting in their faces. Not a good sign for the prospect of a coalition
It's turning out to be a centrist split. We lefties are trying hard not to laugh - not least as the kaleidoscope of British politics is literally changing every day, so we could easily be despairing or rejoicing tomorrow.
It was nice to think for at least a few hours that something might have been agreed today. But Cox's view is the nail in the coffin for any hopes of that today.
What a shambles. May might as well not turn up for the vote, we all know the outcome.
Wow, that was not what everyone was expecting from Cox this morning, but fair play to him for playing a straight bat. I can’t see how the deal goes through tonight now, and the PM’s political career probably dies with it.
It's crazy. What was she thinking? She trips off to the EU, has a presser with them telling us how she's got it sorted but without really getting the nod from her AG! Is she deluded or incompetent?
Seems the stories that he was leant on to be upbeat about what she achieved were true.
May has lost all perspective. She needs to walk away.
If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.
A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.
On the contrary, there’s now three fewer Conservatives. Unless of course TIG decide to vote with the government? If they abstain, the government would fall with the DUP opposed.
Heidi Allen said she would vote with the government on a VONC. If so, I think they'd scrape home, even with the DUP opposed. I'd expect the Labour TIG to abstain.
One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.
Haven't TIG said they want to run in every seat? That already means they've responded to the Lib Dems' friendliness by spitting in their faces. Not a good sign for the prospect of a coalition
It's turning out to be a centrist split. We lefties are trying hard not to laugh - not least as the kaleidoscope of British politics is literally changing every day, so we could easily be despairing or rejoicing tomorrow.
The idea that TIG are actually going to run against the Lib Dems in Oxford West & Abingdon, when the Greens stepped aside last time, is for the birds.
Note also that Anna Soubry is speaking at the Lib Dem spring conference this weekend.
One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.
Haven't TIG said they want to run in every seat? That already means they've responded to the Lib Dems' friendliness by spitting in their faces. Not a good sign for the prospect of a coalition
It's turning out to be a centrist split. We lefties are trying hard not to laugh - not least as the kaleidoscope of British politics is literally changing every day, so we could easily be despairing or rejoicing tomorrow.
As of this moment there's no TIG candidate for Newport West, and, as posted earlier, Anna Soubry is down to feature at the LibDems Spring Conference.
Game over for May then. Its remain in a few months.
Like others I'm baffled Cox's view was not confirmed prior to an announcement. What a waste of time, and the EU will be furious when the deal is hugely defeated again.
At all crucial moments in Brexit, May has got in the mix. Taken control. And fucked up.
When this Deal fails, which it will, then the Cabinet has to summon up the cullions and just tell TMay to go. If she refuses, drag her out by her stupid kitten heels. FFS. She is now an obstacle to all this, and her absurd red lines at the beginning are the reason for all this.
Jesus. What a waste of time, energy and money.
And what do you think they should then do? Appoint Boris as PM? Hammond? What about the party membership?
Whilst I'm sure most MPs and party members would be delighted to see the back of her as PM, her departure would not be a solution to the immediate problem.
At the moment it looks like the situation slowly, but steadily, becomes worse with May as PM, but it would rapidly become worse after she leaves. I find it hard to imagine a scenario that improves the political situation. What a mess!
I suspect the clearer it becomes that the deal isn't passing, the more of these guys will go back to the No column. No point sticking their neck out to change the third digit of the majority against.
Well indeed. What benefit in looking like they wavered now?
Geoffrey Cox is positioned very well as a Brexiter man of integrity who argued in favour of the deal.
That might be rather handy for him in any coming leadership election...
Why would anyone sane want to be Tory leader?
Have to say, reading the few paragraphs of his advice that I have seen posted here, he seems to have done a very honorable job of being honest, rather than political, in his interpretation of the agreements. That, too, should stand him in good stead.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
None of this would have happened if the 2011 Greece crisis had been handled better. They cooked the books to enter the Euro and France and Germany turned a blind eye to it.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
The government needs to be brought down. That's the only chance of a change. Until May goes nothing will change.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
If the Deal is dead then Brexit is dead, the Remainer majority in Parliament will either ensure Brexit is cancelled or we only leave staying in the single market and Customs Union which is staying in the EU in all but name anyway
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
If the Deal is dead then Brexit is dead, the Remainer majority in Parliament will either ensure Brexit is cancelled or we only leave staying in the single market and Customs Union which is staying in the EU in all but name anyway
Ozzy seems to be suggesting that the Ultras have played a blinder and just need to hold their nerve for No Deal to be upon us. I think he's right.
He might be, or as ever with Osborne, he might be conniving to his own ends. If I were a Remainer wanting the ERG to shoot themselves (and Brexit) in the foot, his editorial is exactly what I'd write.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
But no deal is not better than Mrs May's deal.
Yes it is. No Brexit is and No Deal is so quite frankly I don't care much what happens next. I was willing to back it last night and this morning but frankly May's deal dies today.
Kantar Public voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
But no deal is not better than Mrs May's deal.
Yes it is. No Brexit is and No Deal is so quite frankly I don't care much what happens next. I was willing to back it last night and this morning but frankly May's deal dies today.
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point.
But yes, I think Boris was favourite at the moment at which the vacancy became apparent. I don't know what the score was in 2003 but it wasn't obvious that there would be a coronation and there was certainly speculation that David Davis would be a strong contender.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
But no deal is not better than Mrs May's deal.
Yes it is. No Brexit is and No Deal is so quite frankly I don't care much what happens next. I was willing to back it last night and this morning but frankly May's deal dies today.
You were willing to back it? Why?
I thought the changes last night meant something. I was wrong.
Kantar Public voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).
Maybe Theresa will have another election if her deal gets thrown out?
Kantar Public voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).
Maybe Theresa will have another election if her deal gets thrown out?
Comments
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1105443560147636224
That might enable Brexit, but where would that leave the Union and the confidence and supply deal?
You'd still think it unlikely this will get through post Cox, but I think most Brexiteers now recognise reality and that it's either this deal or something considerably worse from their perspective.
I really despair. I feel we are going to end up with something even more "worst of both worlds" than May's deal - absolute vassalage, which was ultimately the reason I held my nose and reluctantly voted Remain, in the hope of preventing that.
Maybe 3 less as there are 3 less headbanging Remainers being called Tories now.
The only exception I think would be Ian Austin (as well as John Woodcock and Ivan Lewis, like last time).
Like others I'm baffled Cox's view was not confirmed prior to an announcement. What a waste of time, and the EU will be furious when the deal is hugely defeated again.
It's not his fault if others decide not to follow his advice.
There must be many actual Tory MPs who think similarly.
But nothing else has a detectable pulse.
2. But they need parliament / government to support a referendum / GE before the 29th. Not sure I see that happening.
I suspect the clearer it becomes that the deal isn't passing, the more of these guys will go back to the No column. No point sticking their neck out to change the third digit of the majority against.
So glad I didn't.
What a shambles. May might as well not turn up for the vote, we all know the outcome.
May has lost all perspective. She needs to walk away.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
something's gotta give....
Note also that Anna Soubry is speaking at the Lib Dem spring conference this weekend.
Just saying.
We are where we are because of May.
(Timestamping didn't work. Start at 56s)
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-debt-crisis-goldman-sachs-could-be-sued-for-helping-country-hide-debts-when-it-joined-euro-10381926.html
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1105442730203844613
Looks like Ross 'SNPgain' Thomson may not deserve his nickname. We'll just stick with 'touchy' then.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1105422645254909952
https://www.eastlondonadvertiser.co.uk/news/politics/police-lacked-training-for-criminal-charges-in-corrupt-election-1-5932633?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons
I cashed out my sell one point off the bottom and have now bought. Suspect it will climb for as long as Cox can keep talking.
Kantar Public voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).
But yes, I think Boris was favourite at the moment at which the vacancy became apparent. I don't know what the score was in 2003 but it wasn't obvious that there would be a coronation and there was certainly speculation that David Davis would be a strong contender.