So basically what May/Cox have achieved is protection from bad faith on the part of the EU seeking to hold us into the backstop by simply not agreeing anything but the risk of us simply not being able to agree anything, even in good faith, remains.
Not sure that is going to be enough for May but it is a pretty straight bat from Cox.
Yes, they have achieved something. The risk of getting stuck in the backstop (which was always very low anyway) has been further diminished. However, if you're looking for absolute guarantees, in this uncertain world you're not going to get them.
The key point on the numbers is that, if it looks as though it will fail anyway, there's little incentive for the hardliners and those under pressure from their associations to vote for it. Why put your head over the parapet if the deal is doomed anyway?
Brilliant - so it's an extension and some more can-kicking in to the summer whilst everything else is yet more opportunity cost whilst Brexit swamps resources/attention.
I reckon that means TMay has to pass the baton to someone else to do that.
One thing that puzzles me is why should any supporter of Remain, like Sam Gyimah, have a problem with the backstop? Surely, it has the effect of softening, rather than hardening, Brexit.
From my pov, and presumably his as well (although I've no reason to assume this) this whole phase is passing me by - the backstop is the least of the problems with the deal. So probably more about his concerns not being addressed.
Sam Gyimah, Philip Lee, and Jo Johnson are chasing after unicorns as much as any ERG-er.
I agree with most here that Geoffrey Cox's legal opinion has almost certainly sunk Brexit.
I can't understand what's happened here as I thought Cox was the one who had been negotiating this with the EU?
Is this another **** up from May and Robbins?
Didn't Dominic Raab negotiate the original Brexit deal, then resign in protest at it?
I thought he was negotiating one deal and May and Robbins agreed a different deal, didn't discuss it with him and presented it to Cabinet as the deal. Assuming that is true he could not with any integrity remain in his job so he quit.
One thing that puzzles me is why should any supporter of Remain, like Sam Gyimah, have a problem with the backstop? Surely, it has the effect of softening, rather than hardening, Brexit.
They are not interested in any form of Brexit at all.
Good on Cox for playing it straight. The Brick Court opinion also tells it how it is.
As I said last night, we do have something we didn't have yesterday to wave around if we do feel we have to renege on the deal in order to escape. No more, no less. Will that be enough for MPs?
I think Cox, plus the ERG legal opinion, have killed the May deal once and for all, killed the May premiership, and possibly also killed Brexit in any meaningful sense.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
Good on Cox for playing it straight. The Brick Court opinion also tells it how it is.
As I said last night, we do have something we didn't have yesterday to wave around if we do feel we have to renege on the deal in order to escape. No more, no less. Will that be enough for MPs?
I think Cox, plus the ERG legal opinion, have killed the May deal once and for all, killed the May premiership, and possibly also killed Brexit in any meaningful sense.
Does the bollocks tweet count as playing it straight?
Politically there is a route for the ERG to fold and accept the deal. They can argue that they wanted a unilateral right to exit to protect the UK from bad faith on the part of the EU and that they now have that protection in a different form. It would surprise me though were they to walk back from the letter of what they demanded.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.
So basically what May/Cox have achieved is protection from bad faith on the part of the EU seeking to hold us into the backstop by simply not agreeing anything but the risk of us simply not being able to agree anything, even in good faith, remains.
Not sure that is going to be enough for May but it is a pretty straight bat from Cox.
It's a question of trust, isn't it. We have to trust the EU that they - like we - will want to get an FTA.
This whole issue has arisen because so many in the Tory party simply don't want to trust anything that comes out of Europe. It has become a bogeyman for them. And if they won't trust then no amount of legal wording will ever satisfy them.
Yes, I think that is fair. But if you have lived your adult life building the EU up as some sleekit bogey man in your head, always working to do the UK down, then trust does not come easily. There are in my view compelling reasons not to be in the EU but the paranoia and conspiracy miasma that renders so many of the ERG wing almost incoherent and irrational is beyond my understanding.
Good on Cox for playing it straight. The Brick Court opinion also tells it how it is.
As I said last night, we do have something we didn't have yesterday to wave around if we do feel we have to renege on the deal in order to escape. No more, no less. Will that be enough for MPs?
I think Cox, plus the ERG legal opinion, have killed the May deal once and for all, killed the May premiership, and possibly also killed Brexit in any meaningful sense.
It's killed the May deal. That's now dead and I'd expect it to go down by something like as many as in January now. There might be a few Tories who come across for one reason or another but with everyone knowing what the result will be, Labour, the DUP and ERG will hold firm.
May will probably stumble on for the time being as PM, for want of a better alternative right now (whatever else should be done these next few weeks, indulging in a leadership election isn't it), but she has to go this summer.
As for Brexit, it's either No Deal, whether this month or by May, or a whole reset and a lengthy extension - but I'm not sure whether that gets through the House.
I'm pissed off and angry. I was backing this last night and this morning but that's it!
I'm absolutely livid this has come to pass. Enough is enough May must go NOW!
Genuine question - did what you saw agreed last night really look to you like something that would allow unilateral withdrawal from the backstop?
Yes. IANAL but the unilateral declaration last night read to me like it was formally putting on the record that we would and could use our Vienna Treaty rights to exit the backstop unilaterally if it was becoming permanent. Again IANAL but my understanding of the Vienna Treayy is that a unilateral exit of a treaty without an exit mechanism is only permissible if the Treaty was not meant to be permanent and therefore by stressing in advance it was not meant to be permanent we could then unilaterally exit that way.
Nothing has changed though. May needs to go and we need to extend and let her successor resolve this.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.
Strange, but that's human nature.
We are now at the point where all bets are off - and remaining via a referendum has to become a real possibility, unless the ERG see sense. I am okay with TM’s deal, but if that is rejected then remaining is infinitely preferable to no deal in my book.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
I suspect it’s got to be an extension to A50 and a GE to get a HoC that can agree a deal.
Not that I’m a fan of either, but I don’t see what options are left.
Both the deal and Brexit I think. But who knows?
The Deal almost certainly and Brexit very likely - it’s proponents have repeatedly failed to engage with reality and when presented with an adequate compromise have rejected it. The “blame” is theirs and theirs alone - as Nick Boles pointed out this will let any Remainer Tory MPs off the hook and they will now strain every sinew to thwart Brexit.
Goodness knows what this will do to our democracy or the EU, with a permanent cross and cantankerous member fulminating on the side lines. Those inclined to celebrate any reversal of Brexit should be very careful what they wish for.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
I suspect it’s got to be an extension to A50 and a GE to get a HoC that can agree a deal.
Not that I’m a fan of either, but I don’t see what options are left.
Both the deal and Brexit I think. But who knows?
The Deal almost certainly and Brexit very likely - it’s proponents have repeatedly failed to engage with reality and when presented with an adequate compromise have rejected it. The “blame” is theirs and theirs alone - as Nick Boles pointed out this will let any Remainer Tory MPs off the hook and they will now strain every sinew to thwart Brexit.
Goodness knows what this will do to our democracy or the EU, with a permanent cross and cantankerous member fulminating on the side lines. Those inclined to celebrate any reversal of Brexit should be very careful what they wish for.
Yes, quite right. Remaining under the current circumstances is just going to be another variant of disaster, albeit hugely preferable to crashing out with no deal.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.
Strange, but that's human nature.
Where do you get the obvious from? Never heard of poker?
Tonight you see how to win at poker.
Anyone who thinks may Deal is dead, who think you can count the political cards, by 8 tonight you will be very surprised.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Because the HoC sees remaining (via a referendum) is preferable to no deal. I agree.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.
Strange, but that's human nature.
Where do you get the obvious from? Never heard of poker?
Tonight you see how to win at poker.
Anyone who thinks may Deal is dead, who think you can count the political cards, by 8 tonight you will be very surprised.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Yes. The problem we have is that the EU have told us “this is the deal. Take it or leave it.” So if we ask for an extension I think the only thing that they will counternance is a) an extension for a GE to take place or b) an extension for a referendum to take place.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.
Strange, but that's human nature.
Where do you get the obvious from? Never heard of poker?
Tonight you see how to win at poker.
Anyone who thinks may Deal is dead, who think you can count the political cards, by 8 tonight you will be very surprised.
Take what's on offer. But May and all her chosen ones get cleaned out.
Then go in HARD on the trade negotiations. And be prepared to walk away from it.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Yes. The problem we have is that the EU have told us “this is the deal. Take it or leave it.” So if we ask for an extension I think the only thing that they will counternance is a) an extension for a GE to take place or b) an extension for a referendum to take place.
Will TMay back either of those options?
In that scenario, she should (reluctantly) support the Labour amendment to “ratify” her deal. Only way out for her.....
So basically what May/Cox have achieved is protection from bad faith on the part of the EU seeking to hold us into the backstop by simply not agreeing anything but the risk of us simply not being able to agree anything, even in good faith, remains.
Not sure that is going to be enough for May but it is a pretty straight bat from Cox.
It's a question of trust, isn't it. We have to trust the EU that they - like we - will want to get an FTA.
This whole issue has arisen because so many in the Tory party simply don't want to trust anything that comes out of Europe. It has become a bogeyman for them. And if they won't trust then no amount of legal wording will ever satisfy them.
It isn't just trust in whether both parties want an FTA. It is what kind of an FTA we get. Trapped.in the backstop the FTA negotiations will be totally one sided. The EU will write whatever they want from the FTA and put in whatever arbitration suits them best and we will be made to take it. It will be like America's dominance of NAFTA but on steroids.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.
Strange, but that's human nature.
Where do you get the obvious from? Never heard of poker?
Tonight you see how to win at poker.
Anyone who thinks may Deal is dead, who think you can count the political cards, by 8 tonight you will be very surprised.
Take what's on offer. But May and all her chosen ones get cleaned out.
Then go in HARD on the trade negotiations. And be prepared to walk away from it.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughts
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.
Er, and the 30-40 suicidally insane Labour MPs who are going to back this for no reason?
LOL at that journalist constantly getting on his high horse about supposed "abuse" from Labour, then he's hypocrite enough to tweet something as vile as that.
Yes. The problem we have is that the EU have told us “this is the deal. Take it or leave it.” So if we ask for an extension I think the only thing that they will counternance is a) an extension for a GE to take place or b) an extension for a referendum to take place.
Or possibly the long extension route comes back into play. Two years, WA essentially gets bypassed, simultaneous negotiation of the future agreement. Doesn't need a vote, TM can do it tomorrow.
LOL at that journalist constantly getting on his high horse about supposed "abuse" from Labour, then he's hypocrite enough to tweet something as vile as that.
It is wrong on so many levels. Utterly unacceptable
I suspect it’s got to be an extension to A50 and a GE to get a HoC that can agree a deal.
Not that I’m a fan of either, but I don’t see what options are left.
Why would the EU agree to that?
Because they’d rather we stayed and an extension to A50 so the UK can “take stock” would be the best way to do it. And a GE is the best way to do that. If that means a Remain Labour government, so be it. Of course it could just as easily result in a “Brexit for the many not the few Unicorns” Labour government too- so the EU might easily tell us to Foxtrot Oscar.
So basically what May/Cox have achieved is protection from bad faith on the part of the EU seeking to hold us into the backstop by simply not agreeing anything but the risk of us simply not being able to agree anything, even in good faith, remains.
Not sure that is going to be enough for May but it is a pretty straight bat from Cox.
Yes, they have achieved something. The risk of getting stuck in the backstop (which was always very low anyway) has been further diminished. However, if you're looking for absolute guarantees, in this uncertain world you're not going to get them.
The key point on the numbers is that, if it looks as though it will fail anyway, there's little incentive for the hardliners and those under pressure from their associations to vote for it. Why put your head over the parapet if the deal is doomed anyway?
What I simply cannot understand is how the ERG can simultaneously posses a view of British sovereignty utterly untrammelled in its simplicity, and also fear being locked into an arrangement which we will have the sovereign power to leave irrespective of any arbitrator's ruling.
If they don't fear the consequences of No Deal Brexit, why would they fear the consequences of simply abrogating the withdrawal agreement ? Something which this latest piece of paper even provides a fig leaf for.
TMay should now fall on her sword, after making good on her promise to offer parliament a chance to rule out No Deal.
Then she resigns, and we either have a 2nd vote or a new GE.
If there are any other options I’d like to hear them.
Well there's the Anglo-Chinese War option and we can do what we did with Irish Home Rule and leave Brexit on the statute book but not implement it for the duration of the war.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
I can see that point of view. But equally I can see the point of view that the EU isn't going to extend past the Euro elections/the convening of the European parliament.
If the latter is correct, then No Deal certainly hasn't been taken off the table.
Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
TMay should now fall on her sword, after making good on her promise to offer parliament a chance to rule out No Deal.
Then she resigns, and we either have a 2nd vote or a new GE.
If there are any other options I’d like to hear them.
She stays on long enough to obtain an extension during which we hold a referendum.
If she goes now, there is a very high probability of No Deal by default, as there is barely enough time to form a new government even in the best of circumstances. And not even close to enough time to hold a general election - whose outcome might easily result in a parliament as divided as this one.
Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
The Sporting Index price still looks like a clear sell to me. I've so far spotted precisely four MPs who voted against last time who have announced that they're voting for. Who are all the new converts going to be now?
A GE won't change anything. The public is bored of Brexit and will vote on other issues.
If it's true that the public will vote on other issues then a GE might prove that to MPs so that they could return to the Commons to make a decision without fear of the anger of their constituents.
However, I don't agree with the "If" and with the public still split on Brexit a GE fixes nothing because the Commons will remain divided.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension. There is no majority for a 2nd ref, and there is no majority for revocation.
Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
And how does that end it
It gives an opportunity for a reset and fresh ideas. Whether it be preparing for No Deal or a Referendum or a renegotiation. May has nothing, hers is an empty cupboard. She has wasted our.2 year window of negotiations sticking obstinately to a plan she knew Parliament would oppose with no Plan B. She is a failure. Worst PM since Chamberlain, Suez was not handled this badly.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension.
Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
Agreed. The Fixed Term Parliament Act gives the Tories the chance to come up with someone else so they're not voting to put Corbyn in Number 10, just to remove Mrs May.
And I think the probability of Mrs May going voluntarily is small. Her attitude is to keep buggering on and there is no mechanism for an internal Tory leadership vote for another 9 months if she doesn't stand down. In one of history's little ironies, the Tory party now depends on Jeremy Corbyn to rescue it. But conversely he shouldn't refuse the opportunity.
I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
I can see that point of view. But equally I can see the point of view that the EU isn't going to extend past the Euro elections/the convening of the European parliament.
If the latter is correct, then No Deal certainly hasn't been taken off the table.
I know there have been some statements to that effect but I don't buy it, I think they will. Nobody wants to encourage faffing or look like they're forcing the British to stay, and they won't let TMay play silly buggers with the timing. But denying an extension (at any given moment when the other options are exhausted) royally screws Ireland and messes with lots of your own citizens, who will be exceedingly narked off with you. Where's the upside?
Actually I think that may be unfair on Chamberlain. While his negotiations failed he prepared for No Deal. He ensured the mobilisation and arming of the country as a Plan B in case his first plan failed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BBCJoannaG/status/1105428134634098689
Or Brexit?
I suspect it’s got to be an extension to A50 and a GE to get a HoC that can agree a deal.
Not that I’m a fan of either, but I don’t see what options are left.
The key point on the numbers is that, if it looks as though it will fail anyway, there's little incentive for the hardliners and those under pressure from their associations to vote for it. Why put your head over the parapet if the deal is doomed anyway?
I reckon that means TMay has to pass the baton to someone else to do that.
I agree with most here that Geoffrey Cox's legal opinion has almost certainly sunk Brexit.
Get a new leader, ask for an extension to have a second referendum or a GE. That’s the only option now.
As I said last night, we do have something we didn't have yesterday to wave around if we do feel we have to renege on the deal in order to escape. No more, no less. Will that be enough for MPs?
I think Cox, plus the ERG legal opinion, have killed the May deal once and for all, killed the May premiership, and possibly also killed Brexit in any meaningful sense.
Big promotion on the way for Cox whatever happens in the next few days...
Strange, but that's human nature.
May will probably stumble on for the time being as PM, for want of a better alternative right now (whatever else should be done these next few weeks, indulging in a leadership election isn't it), but she has to go this summer.
As for Brexit, it's either No Deal, whether this month or by May, or a whole reset and a lengthy extension - but I'm not sure whether that gets through the House.
Nothing has changed though. May needs to go and we need to extend and let her successor resolve this.
Goodness knows what this will do to our democracy or the EU, with a permanent cross and cantankerous member fulminating on the side lines. Those inclined to celebrate any reversal of Brexit should be very careful what they wish for.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
We’ll have rejoined by 2027.
Short term pain for long term gain.
Tonight you see how to win at poker.
Anyone who thinks may Deal is dead, who think you can count the political cards, by 8 tonight you will be very surprised.
Will TMay back either of those options?
Then go in HARD on the trade negotiations. And be prepared to walk away from it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/12/brexit-vote-latest-news-meaningful-vote-theresa-may-deal-irish/
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1105428755726647296
Or possibly the long extension route comes back into play. Two years, WA essentially gets bypassed, simultaneous negotiation of the future agreement. Doesn't need a vote, TM can do it tomorrow.
Once again she won't be believed.
Then she resigns, and we either have a 2nd vote or a new GE.
If there are any other options I’d like to hear them.
If they don't fear the consequences of No Deal Brexit, why would they fear the consequences of simply abrogating the withdrawal agreement ?
Something which this latest piece of paper even provides a fig leaf for.
Parliament must and will reject the deal. If I was an MP I would reject the deal. I wanted to back it. Argh!
May must go now. Nothing will change until she goes. She is not part of the solution, she is part of the problem.
You see May not asking for an A50 extension?
Trouble with a GE is that we are probably back here again unless one party wins a large majority.
Would call a referendum via the Labour amendment and announce she will stand down afterwards
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1105431183347847169
If the latter is correct, then No Deal certainly hasn't been taken off the table.
EDIT: thank Fuck we reduced it from £10,000. I remember lowering it because I felt it was unkind to exploit his ignorance. Lol.
If she goes now, there is a very high probability of No Deal by default, as there is barely enough time to form a new government even in the best of circumstances.
And not even close to enough time to hold a general election - whose outcome might easily result in a parliament as divided as this one.
However, I don't agree with the "If" and with the public still split on Brexit a GE fixes nothing because the Commons will remain divided.
TIM SHIPMAN HAS DELETED THE CODPIECE TWEET
Paging Brenda...
And I think the probability of Mrs May going voluntarily is small. Her attitude is to keep buggering on and there is no mechanism for an internal Tory leadership vote for another 9 months if she doesn't stand down. In one of history's little ironies, the Tory party now depends on Jeremy Corbyn to rescue it. But conversely he shouldn't refuse the opportunity.
May is worse than Chamberlain.