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Revote on the Deal, then revote on No Deal, then revoke Article 50 and immediately reinvoke. Which would do exactly the same thing as the proposed 2 year extension.Cyclefree said:
Well, imagine the opposite: that Parliament votes for a short extension (having voted against the Deal and a No Deal exit) and the EU says no. What then?Endillion said:On topic, @Cyclefree wrote a great header, which we're all now ignoring because Corbyn just threw Williamson under a bus.
I think the premise that they'd offer us 2 years and no less is unlikely, but if they did, then what we should do is very simple (take the Deal, which we should do anyway) and what we will do is absolutely unknowable.0 -
I did not know or think of that but it makes perfect sense.Charles said:
It was originally ally because retailers didn’t trust their staff - 4.99 forced them to open the till to give change!TOPPING said:
Is that like selling something for £4.99 instead of a fiver for psychological reasons?Foxy said:On Topic, I think this is what happens next, though 21 months as has been floated rather than 24.
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It takes a day just to get across Devon, unless both destinations are on the A38.IanB2 said:
Once over the hurdle of the day it takes most people to get there, Devon is attractive, for sure, although not as sunny across the year as the Isle of Wight or Eastbourne. A curse on people not living there nevertheless seems somewhat harsh. Especially as it will damage its fisherfolk.MarqueeMark said:
Those that God truly blesses, he allows to live in Devon.IanB2 said:
If only we had realised that back in 2016, we could have saved a lot of bother.MarqueeMark said:
Anyway - politics? Who cares. Just spent days in the garden in this glorious weather. A robin a foot from my fork, Red Admiral butterflies up from the continent, a chiffchaff singing (3 weeks early) - this is what sets you free!Cyclefree said:My view is that there is no point to a short extension. So an extension either has to be for a specific purpose - to complete legislation or a referendum. Or for a complete rethink eg starting work on the FTA etc.
But absent something concrete from Britain I don’t see why the EU would grant any extension at all.
Surely this will be the warmest February ever?
The rest have to make do with Brexit.....0 -
He is just click bait, and I wish people would stop posting his every tweet up here.DecrepitJohnL said:
Corbyn is not Machiavelli. Hodges needs Corbyn to be cleverer than he is.kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11007094325965414400 -
It's due to be right after Brexit is concluded, the NI assembly is back in action, and we eliminate the deficit.AlastairMeeks said:I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
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I suppose they do stand a better chance of getting into the headlines tomorrow.williamglenn said:
On the other hand, it might make a defection even more impactful than it would otherwise have been.IanB2 said:May has kicked Brexit into at least short grass, and Corbyn has done the same with his internal troubles. Maybe TIG won't be getting its expected batch of recruits this week after all.
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Yes. So far as I can see it has been the only show in town for some months and remains so. An extension should only be short one to get it formally done and legislated for.eek said:
Isn't every option on the table a blooming unicorn bar actually agreeing to May's Deal?Richard_Tyndall said:On the subject of the header, the EU have always made clear that under the Article 50 they are not allowed to start discussing an FTA until after the UK has left. This has been their hard line ever since the referendum in spite of the British asking for them to move on this. They simply say it is the Treaty and they cannot change it. So why suddenly does anyone think they will say that they can now discuss an FTA when for the last 3 years it has been forbidden?
I am afraid this is another of those elusive unicorns.
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Who wants to be a baron(ess)?AlastairMeeks said:I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
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I've resigned because my party did the right thing won't necessarily cut through. No matter the nuances of the expulsion.IanB2 said:
I suppose they do stand a better chance of getting into the headlines tomorrow.williamglenn said:
On the other hand, it might make a defection even more impactful than it would otherwise have been.IanB2 said:May has kicked Brexit into at least short grass, and Corbyn has done the same with his internal troubles. Maybe TIG won't be getting its expected batch of recruits this week after all.
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Is he "allowed" to do what he wants while he's suspended?AlastairMeeks said:I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
As in, can disciplinary action be taken, or will it prejudice his hearing?
Presumably he'll take every opportunity to attack his critics in the PLP on every media outlet that will have him in the interim.0 -
Long, I am guessing. Since the only 'right' answer that won't prompt a walkout from Labour is to cut him adrift. On the other hand, making him the fallguy doesn't necessarily resolve anything, although it does send a powerful message to the others.AlastairMeeks said:I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
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Cohen may be a lyin' liar, but he is pretty good in the testimony - at least with a friendly Dem questioning.0
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How long will it take...well he is on video saying all this stuff...how long did it take with red ken in such an open and shut case?0
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Good question but actually, does it matter to Theresa May? There is not scheduled to be another general election until 2022 by which time politics and the electorate will (OK, might) have moved on, and she'll have retired before then anyway. So revoke is possible; Cyclefree's OP two year extension is also plausible. Whatever Theresa May came into politics for, it was not Brexit, and she might just fancy a two year run at whatever it was.notme2 said:
Do you participate in elections, as say a party activist canvassing? What do you think the reception on the door would be like if she did that?The_Taxman said:I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.
I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.0 -
I see England gave it some banjoing...and still got archer to add to the team in a few weeks time!0
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I was thinking more that it would show that kicking issues into the short grass isn't sufficient.IanB2 said:
I suppose they do stand a better chance of getting into the headlines tomorrow.williamglenn said:
On the other hand, it might make a defection even more impactful than it would otherwise have been.IanB2 said:May has kicked Brexit into at least short grass, and Corbyn has done the same with his internal troubles. Maybe TIG won't be getting its expected batch of recruits this week after all.
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He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
Earlier today I was stood outside Parliament with my mum (who's an amateur photographer) mingling with some of the anti- and pro-Brexit demonstrators. Mum took several "street photography" type shots. Overall, it was a bit of a carnival atmosphere, though there were a couple of heated arguments between some of the demonstrators and passers-by.
Remainer in a Rolls-Royce kept driving up and down, and there was a UKIP "never trust a Tory" lorry, a Leave.EU bus and a People's Vote bus too! But was surprised to see one of the Leave protestors waving a "Trump 2020" flag! Thought that a bit out of place, personally.0 -
It's been said for many years, and by people with a better grasp of the issues than me, that the vacant centre ground of British politics isn't waiting to be filled be something moderately progressive and moderately free market, but by a force that borrows its social programme broadly from the Tory right, and its economic programme broadly from Labour's soft Left. This, not at all coincidentally, is where a lot of the core Leave vote - especially the previously non-voting fraction thereof - comes from.
If the Brexit saga does end in Revocation then it probably follows that this theory is about to be tested. If somebody comes forward to represent these people - and none of the existing major parties appears either willing to or capable of doing so - then they could, in theory, mop up dozens and dozens of seats. I'm not sure that such a platform would be capable of winning a majority, but they could form a large enough blocking minority to force the larger fragments of whatever would be left of the existing party system by that point to treat with them as a coalition partner.0 -
Hang on, I thought he'd apologised, ie that he accepted (at least officially) that he had done something wrong? Clearing his name would mean he has done nothing wrong.Scott_P said:
How can he do both?0 -
Any chance of coverage of some of the problems within the Tory party over Islamophobia?
Amazing the blind spot the media have on this . And no I’m not a Corbyn supporter and I think Williamson is an odious creature.
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Getting the Democrats off with his Russia porn will take a couple years off his sentence, Republicans won't be remotely moved by his BSMTimT said:Cohen may be a lyin' liar, but he is pretty good in the testimony - at least with a friendly Dem questioning.
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The trouble is, for Labour, who is next? CCHQ will have searched the archives and have the next few targets already lined up.IanB2 said:
Long, I am guessing. Since the only 'right' answer that won't prompt a walkout from Labour is to cut him adrift. On the other hand, making him the fallguy doesn't necessarily resolve anything, although it does send a powerful message to the others.AlastairMeeks said:I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
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One way of looking at the current situation is that Mrs M is both testing and softening up her party on the possibility of an extension in principle.DecrepitJohnL said:
Good question but actually, does it matter to Theresa May? There is not scheduled to be another general election until 2022 by which time politics and the electorate will (OK, might) have moved on, and she'll have retired before then anyway. So revoke is possible; Cyclefree's OP two year extension is also plausible. Whatever Theresa May came into politics for, it was not Brexit, and she might just fancy a two year run at whatever it was.notme2 said:
Do you participate in elections, as say a party activist canvassing? What do you think the reception on the door would be like if she did that?The_Taxman said:I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.
I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.0 -
Sometimes even click bait can be right, or if not a useful image of a strand of opinion.IanB2 said:
He is just click bait, and I wish people would stop posting his every tweet up here.DecrepitJohnL said:
Corbyn is not Machiavelli. Hodges needs Corbyn to be cleverer than he is.kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11007094325965414400 -
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.The_Taxman said:I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.
I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
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I would welcome coverage of such Tory party failings as exist, they should not get away with failings just because Labour are full of problems. But why do you think the media are ignoring said failings if they are as serious? Are the Tories not suspending people quickly enough or at all, are such people very close to the highest echelones etc?nico67 said:Any chance of coverage of some of the problems within the Tory party over Islamophobia?
Amazing the blind spot the media have on this . And no I’m not a Corbyn supporter and I think Williamson is an odious creature.0 -
I suspect few MPs are as stupid as Williamson in providing additional ammo.DecrepitJohnL said:
The trouble is, for Labour, who is next? CCHQ will have searched the archives and have the next few targets already lined up.IanB2 said:
Long, I am guessing. Since the only 'right' answer that won't prompt a walkout from Labour is to cut him adrift. On the other hand, making him the fallguy doesn't necessarily resolve anything, although it does send a powerful message to the others.AlastairMeeks said:I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
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Except that the propensity to actually turn out and vote amongst that constituency is the lowest.Black_Rook said:It's been said for many years, and by people with a better grasp of the issues than me, that the vacant centre ground of British politics isn't waiting to be filled be something moderately progressive and moderately free market, but by a force that borrows its social programme broadly from the Tory right, and its economic programme broadly from Labour's soft Left. This, not at all coincidentally, is where a lot of the core Leave vote - especially the previously non-voting fraction thereof - comes from.
If the Brexit saga does end in Revocation then it probably follows that this theory is about to be tested. If somebody comes forward to represent these people - and none of the existing major parties appears either willing to or capable of doing so - then they could, in theory, mop up dozens and dozens of seats. I'm not sure that such a platform would be capable of winning a majority, but they could form a large enough blocking minority to force the larger fragments of whatever would be left of the existing party system by that point to treat with them as a coalition partner.0 -
I'm sure there is plenty of Islamophobia everywhere but I have missed the egregious examples displayed by the leadership of the Conservative Party.nico67 said:Any chance of coverage of some of the problems within the Tory party over Islamophobia?
Amazing the blind spot the media have on this . And no I’m not a Corbyn supporter and I think Williamson is an odious creature.
I would genuinely be interested in some examples.0 -
TM has had a very good few days and has achieved the suspension of Williamson.IanB2 said:
One way of looking at the current situation is that Mrs M is both testing and softening up her party on the possibility of an extension in principle.DecrepitJohnL said:
Good question but actually, does it matter to Theresa May? There is not scheduled to be another general election until 2022 by which time politics and the electorate will (OK, might) have moved on, and she'll have retired before then anyway. So revoke is possible; Cyclefree's OP two year extension is also plausible. Whatever Theresa May came into politics for, it was not Brexit, and she might just fancy a two year run at whatever it was.notme2 said:
Do you participate in elections, as say a party activist canvassing? What do you think the reception on the door would be like if she did that?The_Taxman said:I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.
I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.
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Except they do this in the US too. There they add sales tax onto the listed price, so the 4.99 to open up the till just does not make sense.TOPPING said:
I did not know or think of that but it makes perfect sense.Charles said:
It was originally ally because retailers didn’t trust their staff - 4.99 forced them to open the till to give change!TOPPING said:
Is that like selling something for £4.99 instead of a fiver for psychological reasons?Foxy said:On Topic, I think this is what happens next, though 21 months as has been floated rather than 24.
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Because no-one has resigned over them?kle4 said:
I would welcome coverage of such Tory party failings as exist, they should not get away with failings just because Labour are full of problems. But why do you think the media are ignoring said failings if they are as serious?nico67 said:Any chance of coverage of some of the problems within the Tory party over Islamophobia?
Amazing the blind spot the media have on this . And no I’m not a Corbyn supporter and I think Williamson is an odious creature.0 -
Gratuitous Whataboutery from nico67?TOPPING said:
I'm sure there is plenty of Islamophobia everywhere but I have missed the egregious examples displayed by the leadership of the Conservative Party.nico67 said:Any chance of coverage of some of the problems within the Tory party over Islamophobia?
Amazing the blind spot the media have on this . And no I’m not a Corbyn supporter and I think Williamson is an odious creature.
I would genuinely be interested in some examples.0 -
How many labour MPs are left? 7?0
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Not everything you can buy retail is subject to sales tax in the US. Not everywhere in the US has sales tax.eristdoof said:
Except they do this in the US too. There they add sales tax onto the listed price, so the 4.99 to open up the till just does not make sense.TOPPING said:
I did not know or think of that but it makes perfect sense.Charles said:
It was originally ally because retailers didn’t trust their staff - 4.99 forced them to open the till to give change!TOPPING said:
Is that like selling something for £4.99 instead of a fiver for psychological reasons?Foxy said:On Topic, I think this is what happens next, though 21 months as has been floated rather than 24.
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I see that contempt for Corbyn being too weak to discipline Williamson has morphed into contempt for Corbyn being too weak to stop Williamson being disciplined.
Hats off!0 -
Lol Trumps going nowhere but the 2021 inauguration of his second term.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hillary though........0 -
Charlie Falconer is already in the Lords - problem solved!RobD said:
Who wants to be a baron(ess)?AlastairMeeks said:I wonder how long the investigation into Chris Williamson's case will take?
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An interesting take, and I half agree with it, in that the mere fact of a level of chaos and intense angst around difficult, divisive questions has been over egged as being evidence in itself of failure.
Just 9% of British people think politics isn't broken - and I'm one of them
When I reported this finding, the response was nearly unanimous. “Who are these 9 per cent?” Well, I’m one of them. I think British politics is working well. We are a nation struggling with a huge question about what our relationship should be with continental Europe, and we are engaged in a long, democratic and open discussion about it.
I don’t know how it will be resolved, but whatever the outcome, it will be the least worst in the collective judgement of our elected representatives assembled in the House of Commons. That is British politics working as it should.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-politics-brexit-party-system-poll-independent-grouo-labour-party-conservative-a8799746.html0 -
Some aspects of JC fall into place if he is seen as a 'passive-aggressive' rather than "deeply unpleasant and horrible". Passive-aggressives are of course never wrong and never to blame, and receiving a fake apology from one is painful. It is very unpleasant to be under the power of a p-a or to be in disagreement with them, but they often can acquire a strong base of followers.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.
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One of the things I distrust about Corbyn and his allies is that they espouse discourse, he did so today at PMQs, but they also say things like they wouldn’t be friends with a Tory, as if they are innately evil.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
Just seen the England Cricket score.. AMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAZING0
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But if, as I expect, we reach March 29 and only remain and no deal are left, if they're both impossible, which one does May go for? I guess it really depends on whether she wants to be remembered for destroying the United Kingdom, or just the Conservative Party.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.0 -
That is not actually automatically inconsistent because if that is what he was trying to do then those are two different kinds of weakness - moral weakness in him not wanting to take any action and then institutional weakness in failing to assert his authority that led to him having no choice but to discipline him.kinabalu said:I see that contempt for Corbyn being too weak to discipline Williamson has morphed into contempt for Corbyn being too weak to stop Williamson being disciplined.
Hats off!
That said, we have seen that kind of thing before, such as Cameron being lambasted for not sacking Mitchell soon enough and also for being too weak to not be able to keep him on when the impression was he wanted him to.0 -
https://twitter.com/BBCcarolynquinn/status/1100816238970920960
apart from the fact that he opened his mouth and it came out then it's a good case for Chris Williamson0 -
It may be Round 1 to Watson, but let's not forget who Watson is and that good people had their reputations trashed in the process of his "investigation" eg Leon Brittankle4 said:
It will be fascinating to see how long an investigation takes and what the outcome is. A lot of prominent MPs have been clear they think he is a disgrace, what will they do if he is let back with a slap on the wrist? I'd say something, except there are MPs who think Corbyn himself is an anti-semite and are happy to campaign for him to PM, so who the hell knows.Scott_P said:Round 1 to Watson
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/11008027218573557780 -
Uh, weren't we earlier saying that she craftily made it harder for him to be suspended? So shouldn't your comment say she failed to prevent the suspension of Williamson?Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM has had a very good few days and has achieved the suspension of Williamson.IanB2 said:
One way of looking at the current situation is that Mrs M is both testing and softening up her party on the possibility of an extension in principle.DecrepitJohnL said:
Good question but actually, does it matter to Theresa May? There is not scheduled to be another general election until 2022 by which time politics and the electorate will (OK, might) have moved on, and she'll have retired before then anyway. So revoke is possible; Cyclefree's OP two year extension is also plausible. Whatever Theresa May came into politics for, it was not Brexit, and she might just fancy a two year run at whatever it was.notme2 said:
Do you participate in elections, as say a party activist canvassing? What do you think the reception on the door would be like if she did that?The_Taxman said:I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.
I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.0 -
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Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.The_Taxman said:
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
Sadly there is no shortage of stories: Bob Blackman’s sharing of a tweet by the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, or his membership of anti-Muslim Facebook groups; the Conservative councillor who shared an article calling Muslims “parasites”; the local council candidate who advocated repatriation. And the blatantly, deliberately Islamophobic mayoral campaign against Sadiq Khan in London. Party members have been calling radio phone-ins to speak about their experiences, but are too afraid to give their names; others have confided in me but daren’t speak up in public as doing so would “finish them politically”. These include the dedicated volunteers who we convinced the party had changed. If we don’t fix our latest bigotry blindspot, they will abandon us – and a coming generation will not see the party as a space for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/04/inquiry-tory-islamophobia
This was written by someone called Sayeeda Warsi. I don't know who she is, but she sounds a bit foreign to me.0 -
I don't think that will be what swings it. It will be which is easier. Bizarrely, that is the former.rpjs said:
But if, as I expect, we reach March 29 and only remain and no deal are left, if they're both impossible, which one does May go for? I guess it really depends on whether she wants to be remembered for destroying the United Kingdom, or just the Conservative Party.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.0 -
Yes indeedy. The reactionary bigot with an appetite for closed borders and nationalised trains space is MASSIVE. I think a new party along those lines will do much better than this Tigger "new paradigm for the 21st century" nonsense.Black_Rook said:It's been said for many years, and by people with a better grasp of the issues than me, that the vacant centre ground of British politics isn't waiting to be filled be something moderately progressive and moderately free market, but by a force that borrows its social programme broadly from the Tory right, and its economic programme broadly from Labour's soft Left. This, not at all coincidentally, is where a lot of the core Leave vote - especially the previously non-voting fraction thereof - comes from.
If the Brexit saga does end in Revocation then it probably follows that this theory is about to be tested. If somebody comes forward to represent these people - and none of the existing major parties appears either willing to or capable of doing so - then they could, in theory, mop up dozens and dozens of seats. I'm not sure that such a platform would be capable of winning a majority, but they could form a large enough blocking minority to force the larger fragments of whatever would be left of the existing party system by that point to treat with them as a coalition partner.0 -
No. Not least because the extension is already lined up.Cyclefree said:
Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.The_Taxman said:
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
It was hard and Corbyn had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the decisionStereotomy said:
Uh, weren't we earlier saying that she craftily made it harder for him to be suspended? So shouldn't your comment say she failed to prevent the suspension of Williamson?Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM has had a very good few days and has achieved the suspension of Williamson.IanB2 said:
One way of looking at the current situation is that Mrs M is both testing and softening up her party on the possibility of an extension in principle.DecrepitJohnL said:
Good question but actually, does it matter to Theresa May? There is not scheduled to be another general election until 2022 by which time politics and the electorate will (OK, might) have moved on, and she'll have retired before then anyway. So revoke is possible; Cyclefree's OP two year extension is also plausible. Whatever Theresa May came into politics for, it was not Brexit, and she might just fancy a two year run at whatever it was.notme2 said:
Do you participate in elections, as say a party activist canvassing? What do you think the reception on the door would be like if she did that?The_Taxman said:I watched that BBC documentary on Europe the other day on the Euro crisis.
I was reminded how the Greek PM did a U-turn on the evening of the referendum result on whether to accept the EU terms on the Euro bailout. Whilst the UK is not in the Euro and I would never support our entry to it. I think May, if her deal is defeated again should follow the Greek route and just retract Article 50 and to hell with the advisory referendum of 2016. All that Leave promised has turned out to be just fantasy and not deliverable without more pain for those who cannot afford it. Our best deal is to stay within the European Union.
But well done TM for demanding his suspension from the dispatch box at PMQs0 -
Sayeeda Warsi hates atheists, allegedly:Chris said:Sadly there is no shortage of stories: Bob Blackman’s sharing of a tweet by the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, or his membership of anti-Muslim Facebook groups; the Conservative councillor who shared an article calling Muslims “parasites”; the local council candidate who advocated repatriation. And the blatantly, deliberately Islamophobic mayoral campaign against Sadiq Khan in London. Party members have been calling radio phone-ins to speak about their experiences, but are too afraid to give their names; others have confided in me but daren’t speak up in public as doing so would “finish them politically”. These include the dedicated volunteers who we convinced the party had changed. If we don’t fix our latest bigotry blindspot, they will abandon us – and a coming generation will not see the party as a space for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/04/inquiry-tory-islamophobia
This was written by someone called Sayeeda Warsi. I don't know who she is, but she sounds a bit foreign to me.
http://humanistlife.org.uk/2014/06/26/militant-atheism/
0 -
Interesting. But is it true? Have we heard from the ERG yet? Yesterday I seem to recall they were 'relaxed'. Today are they in a state of apoplexy?Scott_P said:0 -
There have been contradictory public messages. The risk is that May is getting herself into another Salzburg situation where she thinks she can get a short extension and they say no, it has to be long (contrary to what Guy Verhofstadt is saying).IanB2 said:
No. Not least because the extension is already lined up.Cyclefree said:Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
That last is potentially a minor reason why some people do not worry as much about the impacts diplomatically, because plenty of people have claimed we have already destroyed our relations with the entire world already, in a way which cannot be recovered.Cyclefree said:
Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.The_Taxman said:
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are ve
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
I beg to differ. TM deal is likely to pass in the end, no deal will not happenCyclefree said:
Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.The_Taxman said:
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
You trying to say Tories are not innately evilNemtynakht said:
One of the things I distrust about Corbyn and his allies is that they espouse discourse, he did so today at PMQs, but they also say things like they wouldn’t be friends with a Tory, as if they are innately evil.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
By then we shall have extended A50 and TMs deal goes through laterrpjs said:
But if, as I expect, we reach March 29 and only remain and no deal are left, if they're both impossible, which one does May go for? I guess it really depends on whether she wants to be remembered for destroying the United Kingdom, or just the Conservative Party.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
0 -
You may be right. But someone who knows that someone in his team for whom he is responsible is being horribly bullied and does not bother even to speak to them is, frankly, behaving like a horrible person. It is both a failure of leadership and a failure of basic human decency.algarkirk said:
Some aspects of JC fall into place if he is seen as a 'passive-aggressive' rather than "deeply unpleasant and horrible". Passive-aggressives are of course never wrong and never to blame, and receiving a fake apology from one is painful. It is very unpleasant to be under the power of a p-a or to be in disagreement with them, but they often can acquire a strong base of followers.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
Sounds most likely outcome to me. These people are crazy.Cyclefree said:
Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.Black_Rook said:
Up until the point that May finally burned her Brexit policy by letting Parliament try to put it off until whatever point in the future it wanted, I would've said that she (probably) wouldn't do this, and that Parliament would have to take radical action to remove her and install a friendly PM in order to revoke.The_Taxman said:
Now, well, to paraphrase Murphy's Law, anything that can happen, might.
There are very good arguments to be advanced against all of: May's Deal, Labour Brexit, BINO, No Deal, Referendum 2 and Revoke. Yet, unless @Cyclefree has acquired the gift of prophecy and the EU decides that it would like to offer a long A50 extension, one of these apparently impossible things MUST happen on March 29th or shortly after (a short, technical extension, especially after the statements coming from the Spanish and French Governments today, only appears possible if it is to negotiate Labour Brexit or BINO, to finish legislating for May's Deal, or to hold Referendum 2.)
So, what's coming next? At a guess, Revoke: because a majority in Parliament remains elusive for any form of resolution to Brexit, at least some EU leaders (and it only takes one to block extension) are being vocal in their opposition to can-kicking, and deep down it's what most MPs would really like to do. But frankly, who knows? I don't.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
Christian Franz? Sounds a bit foreign.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sayeeda Warsi hates atheists, allegedly:Chris said:Sadly there is no shortage of stories: Bob Blackman’s sharing of a tweet by the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, or his membership of anti-Muslim Facebook groups; the Conservative councillor who shared an article calling Muslims “parasites”; the local council candidate who advocated repatriation. And the blatantly, deliberately Islamophobic mayoral campaign against Sadiq Khan in London. Party members have been calling radio phone-ins to speak about their experiences, but are too afraid to give their names; others have confided in me but daren’t speak up in public as doing so would “finish them politically”. These include the dedicated volunteers who we convinced the party had changed. If we don’t fix our latest bigotry blindspot, they will abandon us – and a coming generation will not see the party as a space for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/04/inquiry-tory-islamophobia
This was written by someone called Sayeeda Warsi. I don't know who she is, but she sounds a bit foreign to me.
http://humanistlife.org.uk/2014/06/26/militant-atheism/0 -
A long one is in our better interests. If she can blame the EU for it, so much the better.williamglenn said:
There have been contradictory public messages. The risk is that May is getting herself into another Salzburg situation where she thinks she can get a short extension and they say no, it has to be long (contrary to what Guy Verhofstadt is saying).IanB2 said:
No. Not least because the extension is already lined up.Cyclefree said:Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
Contrary to what nearly everyone is saying except the guy in the bar.williamglenn said:
There have been contradictory public messages. The risk is that May is getting herself into another Salzburg situation where she thinks she can get a short extension and they say no, it has to be long (contrary to what Guy Verhofstadt is saying).IanB2 said:
No. Not least because the extension is already lined up.Cyclefree said:Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
Not all surely Malc !!!malcolmg said:
You trying to say Tories are not innately evilNemtynakht said:
One of the things I distrust about Corbyn and his allies is that they espouse discourse, he did so today at PMQs, but they also say things like they wouldn’t be friends with a Tory, as if they are innately evil.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
Well everyone knows the members are innately evil but some of their voters are ok malc!malcolmg said:
You trying to say Tories are not innately evilNemtynakht said:
One of the things I distrust about Corbyn and his allies is that they espouse discourse, he did so today at PMQs, but they also say things like they wouldn’t be friends with a Tory, as if they are innately evil.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
Yes , 20 years sounds just about right.IanB2 said:
A long one is in our better interests. If she can blame the EU for it, so much the better.williamglenn said:
There have been contradictory public messages. The risk is that May is getting herself into another Salzburg situation where she thinks she can get a short extension and they say no, it has to be long (contrary to what Guy Verhofstadt is saying).IanB2 said:
No. Not least because the extension is already lined up.Cyclefree said:Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0 -
Notice Sky and BBC obsession with Trump overtakes any domestic news on their 6.00pm bulletins
0 -
Your name is short for a name originating from the Greek "Christoforos". Sounds a bit foreignChris said:
Christian Franz? Sounds a bit foreign.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sayeeda Warsi hates atheists, allegedly:Chris said:Sadly there is no shortage of stories: Bob Blackman’s sharing of a tweet by the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, or his membership of anti-Muslim Facebook groups; the Conservative councillor who shared an article calling Muslims “parasites”; the local council candidate who advocated repatriation. And the blatantly, deliberately Islamophobic mayoral campaign against Sadiq Khan in London. Party members have been calling radio phone-ins to speak about their experiences, but are too afraid to give their names; others have confided in me but daren’t speak up in public as doing so would “finish them politically”. These include the dedicated volunteers who we convinced the party had changed. If we don’t fix our latest bigotry blindspot, they will abandon us – and a coming generation will not see the party as a space for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/04/inquiry-tory-islamophobia
This was written by someone called Sayeeda Warsi. I don't know who she is, but she sounds a bit foreign to me.
http://humanistlife.org.uk/2014/06/26/militant-atheism/
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I am a member by the way !!!!kle4 said:
Well everyone knows the members are innately evil but some of their voters are ok malc!malcolmg said:
You trying to say Tories are not innately evilNemtynakht said:
One of the things I distrust about Corbyn and his allies is that they espouse discourse, he did so today at PMQs, but they also say things like they wouldn’t be friends with a Tory, as if they are innately evil.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
You hide the evil well, kudosBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am a member by the way !!!!kle4 said:
Well everyone knows the members are innately evil but some of their voters are ok malc!malcolmg said:
You trying to say Tories are not innately evilNemtynakht said:
One of the things I distrust about Corbyn and his allies is that they espouse discourse, he did so today at PMQs, but they also say things like they wouldn’t be friends with a Tory, as if they are innately evil.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.
0 -
Agree. It arises out of them being never wrong. I don't think they mean to be horrible. This is a thing which makes them difficult to handle. And of course you must never let them anywhere near leadership but that's obvious to everyone except...……….Cyclefree said:
You may be right. But someone who knows that someone in his team for whom he is responsible is being horribly bullied and does not bother even to speak to them is, frankly, behaving like a horrible person. It is both a failure of leadership and a failure of basic human decency.algarkirk said:
Some aspects of JC fall into place if he is seen as a 'passive-aggressive' rather than "deeply unpleasant and horrible". Passive-aggressives are of course never wrong and never to blame, and receiving a fake apology from one is painful. It is very unpleasant to be under the power of a p-a or to be in disagreement with them, but they often can acquire a strong base of followers.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.
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But from your perspective, not as bad as Goldstein or Rothschild, presumably?Chris said:
Christian Franz? Sounds a bit foreign.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sayeeda Warsi hates atheists, allegedly:Chris said:Sadly there is no shortage of stories: Bob Blackman’s sharing of a tweet by the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, or his membership of anti-Muslim Facebook groups; the Conservative councillor who shared an article calling Muslims “parasites”; the local council candidate who advocated repatriation. And the blatantly, deliberately Islamophobic mayoral campaign against Sadiq Khan in London. Party members have been calling radio phone-ins to speak about their experiences, but are too afraid to give their names; others have confided in me but daren’t speak up in public as doing so would “finish them politically”. These include the dedicated volunteers who we convinced the party had changed. If we don’t fix our latest bigotry blindspot, they will abandon us – and a coming generation will not see the party as a space for them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/04/inquiry-tory-islamophobia
This was written by someone called Sayeeda Warsi. I don't know who she is, but she sounds a bit foreign to me.
http://humanistlife.org.uk/2014/06/26/militant-atheism/
You are trying too hard.0 -
Thanks but I do not have evil to hide to be honestkle4 said:
You hide the evil well, kudosBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am a member by the way !!!!kle4 said:
Well everyone knows the members are innately evil but some of their voters are ok malc!malcolmg said:
You trying to say Tories are not innately evilNemtynakht said:
One of the things I distrust about Corbyn and his allies is that they espouse discourse, he did so today at PMQs, but they also say things like they wouldn’t be friends with a Tory, as if they are innately evil.kle4 said:
He's an interesting person to contemplate as on the surface he does come across generally as personable, polite and genial. But even if you are someone who thinks he is great, for sake of argument, there is a hard edge to him at times. A little snap here, some willful blindness there, a failure to act there. It adds up.Cyclefree said:
If your first instinct is to defend someone accused of anti-semitism, what does that say about you? If your response to one of your MPs bullied for being Jewish is not to speak to her at all, what does that say about you?kle4 said:I know it's him, but gotta say I think he's called this one right.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1100709432596541440
Corbyn comes across as a deeply unpleasant and horrible person.
Being as charitable as I can be, I don't doubt Corbyn would not think of himself as instinctively defending someone accused of anti-semitism. But even if we assume that I do think he takes the normal political behaviour of instinctively defending a political ally to a severe extreme.0 -
Betting post.
Take the 12/1 Corals are offering on Watford to beat Liverpool tonight.0 -
On Cyclefree's Brexit predictions:
Alternatively, EU cuts us some slack while they allow an opportunity for the sane to take over the process? Certainly, hope so …
Definitely agree that her deal won't pass - no indications from the ERG that they're going to shift position.0 -
There would be every chance that the Dem president in such a scenario would "do an Obama" and fail to persue the crimes of the previous administration.kinabalu said:
That is my view too. Needs to run, lose big, then jail.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that the best thing for America is for Trump to lose in 2020.
If he's impeached and convicted then his fans will see it as the swamp taking back control and they'll become even more angry.
On Topic: What should we say to a 2 year extension?
Yes, of course! - So long as we are not tormented with a REF2.0 -
One of the Leave protestors outside Westminster today was waving a "Trump 2020" flag for some reason!Big_G_NorthWales said:Notice Sky and BBC obsession with Trump overtakes any domestic news on their 6.00pm bulletins
0 -
That is all we needSunil_Prasannan said:
One of the Leave protestors outside Westminster today was waving a "Trump 2020" flag for some reason!Big_G_NorthWales said:Notice Sky and BBC obsession with Trump overtakes any domestic news on their 6.00pm bulletins
0 -
It’s come from Commission sources too.Chris said:
Contrary to what nearly everyone is saying except the guy in the bar.williamglenn said:
There have been contradictory public messages. The risk is that May is getting herself into another Salzburg situation where she thinks she can get a short extension and they say no, it has to be long (contrary to what Guy Verhofstadt is saying).IanB2 said:
No. Not least because the extension is already lined up.Cyclefree said:Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal0 -
That's extraordinary value. Still expect Liverpool to win, mind.TheScreamingEagles said:Betting post.
Take the 12/1 Corals are offering on Watford to beat Liverpool tonight.0 -
TMs deal will pass. It isn't even March yet. Long way to go.ThomasNashe said:On Cyclefree's Brexit predictions:
Alternatively, EU cuts us some slack while they allow an opportunity for the sane to take over the process? Certainly, hope so …
Definitely agree that her deal won't pass - no indications from the ERG that they're going to shift position.
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Theresa May's Brexit policy: an executive summaryCyclefree said:(snip)
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
...
(repeated five million times)
...
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving if and when the House of Commons says so
Theresa May is obviously only interested in one thing: whatever keeps Theresa May in power for another five minutes. She is therefore capable of anything - especially something, such as Revocation, which (if I understand correctly) is entirely within her power to implement. The likelihood of this outcome shouldn't be underestimated.0 -
I suspect it goes:-Cyclefree said:
Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years
March 12th - May's Deal rejected.
March 13 - No Deal rejected (by a larger figure than May's deal)
March 14 - extension is voted for by Parliament (but the previous votes mean we don't have a plan).
March 17 - the EU has 3 options - a short extension, a long utterly pointless extension or no extension.
A short extension isn't an option as its not going to be enough time..
A long extension means May can't blame Europe and will need to find another solution.
No Extension means we have a mess as we clearly can't revoke A50 at that point - so we exit with No Deal blaming Europe
So I suspect the EU will offer a long extension - which we will then continue to waste.0 -
I’m sticking with my Christmas predictions for now.0
-
In this circumstance trump would have already sighed his own pardon and only federal crimes could be pursued. If (when) Mueller comes up blank then there are no federal crimes to pursue.Alistair said:
There would be every chance that the Dem president in such a scenario would "do an Obama" and fail to persue the crimes of the previous administration.kinabalu said:
That is my view too. Needs to run, lose big, then jail.TheScreamingEagles said:I've come to the conclusion that the best thing for America is for Trump to lose in 2020.
If he's impeached and convicted then his fans will see it as the swamp taking back control and they'll become even more angry.
On Topic: What should we say to a 2 year extension?
Yes, of course! - So long as we are not tormented with a REF2.
The hysteria over trump should tell you everything, he's a clear and present danger to the establishment, they are absolutely crapping themselves0 -
Surely a long extension suits her better? No-one except Boris wants the job until Brexit is done, one way or the other. And no-one apart from Boris wants him in charge meanwhile.Black_Rook said:
Theresa May's Brexit policy: an executive summaryCyclefree said:(snip)
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
...
(repeated five million times)
...
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving if and when the House of Commons says so
Theresa May is obviously only interested in one thing: whatever keeps Theresa May in power for another five minutes. She is therefore capable of anything - especially something, such as Revocation, which (if I understand correctly) is entirely within her power to implement. The likelihood of this outcome shouldn't be underestimated.0 -
We are leaving on March 29thBlack_Rook said:
Theresa May's Brexit policy: an executive summaryCyclefree said:(snip)
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
...
(repeated five million times)
...
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving on March 29th
We are leaving if and when the House of Commons says so
Theresa May is obviously only interested in one thing: whatever keeps Theresa May in power for another five minutes. She is therefore capable of anything - especially something, such as Revocation, which (if I understand correctly) is entirely within her power to implement. The likelihood of this outcome shouldn't be underestimated.
We are leaving if and when the House of Commons says so
But:
'Nothing has changed'
0 -
The problem with this theory is that if we set sail for No Deal, May's govt will collapse. She could do a Corbyn and replace the rebels, but that won't help her - they'll probably use the nuclear option and force a general election if she doesn't revoke A50.malcolmg said:
Sounds most likely outcome to me. These people are crazy.Cyclefree said:
Time for some predictions from me, which you can all laugh at in due course.algarkirk said:
Revoke can safely be put in the category labelled Impossible. As can No Deal. As can lengthy can-kicking. Only one thing left after that for now, and that's tough enough but not nearly as tough as the others.rpjs said:
We'll get down to the last few days of March with the only possible options being no deal or revoke. And revoke it will be. Probably with some sort of fig leaf that everyone will go away and put their thinking caps on to come up with a practical, this-time-it'll-work-honest, plan for Brexit which, once agreed, will result in a re-invocation of A50.
Except of course that will never happen, and ultimately we'll just all agree to never speak of this again.
1. Mrs May does not have the votes for her deal, even with some tweaking and helpful clarifications from the EU.
2. The EU won’t grant a short extension for no purpose.
3. She doesn’t have the balls to revoke Article 50 or to call for a new referendum - which are, IMO, the only sensible options available to us now.
So it will be a No Deal exit. The consequences will be awful. Our relations with our European neighbours will be ruined for years0
