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My place is down by about 5% and I got about 15% off the original asking price. In centralish London prices are definitely falling a lot faster than the stats are currently showing.Gardenwalker said:
That’s a big drop. Is it a new build?kyf_100 said:
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.rcs1000 said:
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...rcs1000 said:
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:another_richard said:A suprisingly small effect IMO:
' House prices in London could dip three per cent after a no deal Brexit, new research has found.
However, if an agreement is reached, property prices are expected to rise 0.5 per cent in the capital and 1.5 per cent nationally. '
http://www.cityam.com/273691/lonon-house-prices-fall-three-per-cent-after-no-deal-brexit
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.0 -
EU ref before 2020 at 3.2 on BF.0
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A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.0 -
That's not an option though is it?GIN1138 said:
May's deal (with a time limit on the backstop) is fine for me.williamglenn said:0 -
Any referendum would need an extension, and any extension requires EU agreement, so yes it does follow that any vote would have to be on an acceptable deal to both sides.Nigelb said:0 -
Considering that London house prices are higher overall than before the Referendum then some districts must have had some significant increases.kyf_100 said:
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.rcs1000 said:
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...rcs1000 said:
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:another_richard said:A suprisingly small effect IMO:
' House prices in London could dip three per cent after a no deal Brexit, new research has found.
However, if an agreement is reached, property prices are expected to rise 0.5 per cent in the capital and 1.5 per cent nationally. '
http://www.cityam.com/273691/lonon-house-prices-fall-three-per-cent-after-no-deal-brexit
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.0 -
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC0 -
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean uprottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
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Gearing works both ways. I saw it in the early nineties. I dodged out of the worst, but some friends had serious negative equityblighting them for years.MaxPB said:
My place is down by about 5% and I got about 15% off the original asking price. In centralish London prices are definitely falling a lot faster than the stats are currently showing.Gardenwalker said:
That’s a big drop. Is it a new build?kyf_100 said:
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.rcs1000 said:
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...rcs1000 said:
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:another_richard said:A suprisingly small effect IMO:
' House prices in London could dip three per cent after a no deal Brexit, new research has found.
However, if an agreement is reached, property prices are expected to rise 0.5 per cent in the capital and 1.5 per cent nationally. '
http://www.cityam.com/273691/lonon-house-prices-fall-three-per-cent-after-no-deal-brexit
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.0 -
She tried that in 2017.kjohnw said:
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean uprottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.0 -
There are time limits and there are time limits.Benpointer said:
That's not an option though is it?GIN1138 said:
May's deal (with a time limit on the backstop) is fine for me.williamglenn said:
Some are longer than others and some are waaaayyyyy longer than others.
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All this talk or referendums and elections will be making Brenda nervous.Scott_P said:
Maybe we can have a referendum on whether to have an election?
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Member of neither but more a momentum Corbyn supporter at a guess.dots said:
I see it there is a political schism in Corbyns support crudely defined as Unite v Momentum, do i have a point? Are you Unite or Momentum Corbyn supporter?TheJezziah said:
He'd let a few dozen MPs walk happily, he works for the members and the country not those MPs on the right of the party IMO.edmundintokyo said:
Well, the cynical view is that he wanted the disaster socialist outcome so much that he wouldn't do this until he was literally threatened with the dissolution of his party.TheJezziah said:https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1100089073367240704
But, but, but... hard left! communist! marxist!
This can't be right, we were told so reliably by so many people on the right exactly what Corbyn wanted, many on the left disagreed but there was an understanding that only those on the right really know what the left will do...
I'm still convinced Starmer tricked him.
But all's well that ends well...
The reason why i think such internal political gaming is important here I see momentum driving this policy change as much as Emily and Keir.0 -
Have you only just realised that Corbyn is a liar?rottenborough said:
It is all rather odd. Even by Jezza's standards.Pulpstar said:
They could have put it more succinctly https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1099731186216259584Scott_P said:0 -
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
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The Trump parallels come thick and fast.Scott_P said:0 -
Unlikely. It’s a weird mix of archaic Arabic and Italian with a bit of English thrown into the mix.another_richard said:
Isn't it something ancient Punic might have evolved into ?Nigelb said:
Actually, the pronunciation is closer to Bood-ij-ij.Pulpstar said:
It could go the way of my Avenatti and Ojeda tickles, but £3 at 260.0 for POTUS with a favourable write up in the Bezos post could come up trumps..rottenborough said:Boot-edge-edge:
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1098752099926593537
I'm on at 260.
As an aside, Maltese is a damn strange language.
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Well as OGH keeps reminding us things have moved on from 2017...TheScreamingEagles said:
She tried that in 2017.kjohnw said:
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean uprottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work. 0 -
The public are known for showing their gratitude?kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC0 -
An Iraqi friend of mine found her arabic quite similar when out and about.Nigelb said:
Unlikely. It’s a weird mix of archaic Arabic and Italian with a bit of English thrown into the mix.another_richard said:
Isn't it something ancient Punic might have evolved into ?Nigelb said:
Actually, the pronunciation is closer to Bood-ij-ij.Pulpstar said:
It could go the way of my Avenatti and Ojeda tickles, but £3 at 260.0 for POTUS with a favourable write up in the Bezos post could come up trumps..rottenborough said:Boot-edge-edge:
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1098752099926593537
I'm on at 260.
As an aside, Maltese is a damn strange language.0 -
That was the death tax that caused the 2017 failure . Times have moved on , Corbyn is toxic now. The shine has well and truly worn off , plus he’s a remainder nowTheScreamingEagles said:
She tried that in 2017.kjohnw said:
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean uprottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.
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Sounds like May's about to make her own big shift. The dominoes finally toppling.0
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Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslidekle4 said:
The public are known for showing their gratitude?kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC0 -
Possibly but that relies on them avoiding to many No Dealers moving to Farage's Brexit Party or UKIP and whether TIG can still get enough Labour centrists.kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
I could well see a result similar to Feb 1974, Tories largest party but Corbyn forms a minority government with the SNP and maybe LD and TIG confidence and supply
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From nothing has changed to naught has altered?solarflare said:Sounds like May's about to make her own big shift.
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Yeah, that was the meme here 2 short years ago. Can anyone remember what happened next?kjohnw said:
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslidekle4 said:
The public are known for showing their gratitude?kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC0 -
Meaning ?solarflare said:Sounds like May's about to make her own big shift. The dominoes finally toppling.
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No Brexit is better than a No Deal Brexit.kle4 said:
From nothing has changed to naught has altered?solarflare said:Sounds like May's about to make her own big shift.
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Funding for An incoming Labours government to change the politics and economy of UK dries up if we Brexit, why can’t Corbyn Milne have been on a journey to this realisation?williamglenn said:
His invites to Putin's Valdai Club will dry up if Brexit is stopped.rottenborough said:
I am guessing Seamus is not on board with this one.Scott_P said:0 -
No they won't. All but a handful of his MPs remain on side because they think better him than nothing, and the voters will do the same. Enough to win? That will be much harder now. But the voters don't care about his unsuitability. It's no different to Lab supporters who think the Tories really are baby killers and the county hates them, even when they are, by votes, the most popular party in the country. It's assuming because you think him awful the public will react appropriately. Even with his terrible rating - he is awful - the public showed great willingness to at the least stop the Tories getting a landslide. And that was when May had respect.kjohnw said:
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslidekle4 said:
The public are known for showing their gratitude?kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC0 -
Amensolarflare said:Forecasting is a mug's game and yet you still have to try.
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Care to explain?solarflare said:Sounds like May's about to make her own big shift. The dominoes finally toppling.
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Deletedkle4 said:
No they won't. All but a handful of his MPs remain on side because they think better him than nothing, and the voters will do the same. Enough to win? That will be much harder now. But the voters don't care about his unsuitability.kjohnw said:
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslidekle4 said:
The public are known for showing their gratitude?kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC0 -
It's no different to Lab supporters who think the Tories really are baby killers and the county hates them, even when they are, by votes, the most popular party in the country. It's assuming because you think him awful the public will react appropriately. Even with his terrible rating - he is awful - the public showed great willingness to at the least stop the Tories getting a landslide. And that was when May had respect.kjohnw said:
Bollockskle4 said:
No they won't. All but a handful of his MPs remain on side because they think better him than nothing, and the voters will do the same. Enough to win? That will be much harder now. But the voters don't care about his unsuitability.kjohnw said:
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslidekle4 said:
The public are known for showing their gratitude?kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC0 -
I think you might be surprised how many people might "lend" Labour their vote if they were offering a second vote. It is the only circumstance in which I would vote for Corbynkjohnw said:
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean uprottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.0 -
NEW THREAD.Foxy said:
Yeah, that was the meme here 2 short years ago. Can anyone remember what happened next?kjohnw said:
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslidekle4 said:
The public are known for showing their gratitude?kjohnw said:
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexitHYUFD said:
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.Scott_P said:
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
Also: when I pull a party popper twice, it only bangs once.0 -
All this excitable talk about another referendum ignores one crucial fact. Will the EU agree to an extension and won’t this depend on what the question is?0
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There's going to have be a GE sooner rather than later or we'll have a government unable to govern.rottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
And the sooner a GE the better for the government on economic grounds.0 -
He was toxic two years ago. Remember Copeland February 2017?kjohnw said:
That was the death tax that caused the 2017 failure . Times have moved on , Corbyn is toxic now. The shine has well and truly worn off , plus he’s a remainder nowTheScreamingEagles said:
She tried that in 2017.kjohnw said:
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean uprottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.0 -
This time the Sun and the Mail are going for him, doesn't stand a chance now.justin124 said:
He was toxic two years ago. Remember Copeland February 2017?kjohnw said:
That was the death tax that caused the 2017 failure . Times have moved on , Corbyn is toxic now. The shine has well and truly worn off , plus he’s a remainder nowTheScreamingEagles said:
She tried that in 2017.kjohnw said:
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean uprottenborough said:
A GE just got a lot more likely this evening.Scott_P said:
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.0 -
Apart from the Paul Osbourne tweet I can't find any ref to this.Scott_P said:0 -
You're paraphrasing Rajiv Gandhi in 1984?TheScreamingEagles said:
I said major electoral events, the 2018 by elections don't count.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But yet there were by-elections in 2013 and 2018.TheScreamingEagles said:Speaking purely from a political betting standpoint 'We need another referendum this year'
2018 was the first year since 2013 without a major electoral/referendum event in the UK, some years we had more than one.
1998 is the only year in British history with no by-elections or general elections.
When a big tree falls, the earth shakes, Lewisham and a Northern Irish by election didn't make the earth move.
But my factoid still stands: 1998 is the only year in British history with no by-elections or general elections.
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Closely related to the Tunisian dialect of Arabic..Nigelb said:
Actually, the pronunciation is closer to Bood-ij-ij.Pulpstar said:
It could go the way of my Avenatti and Ojeda tickles, but £3 at 260.0 for POTUS with a favourable write up in the Bezos post could come up trumps..rottenborough said:Boot-edge-edge:
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1098752099926593537
I'm on at 260.
As an aside, Maltese is a damn strange language.0
This discussion has been closed.