The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.
That’s a big drop. Is it a new build?
My place is down by about 5% and I got about 15% off the original asking price. In centralish London prices are definitely falling a lot faster than the stats are currently showing.
How could a referendum possibly work unless it offered deal options actually agreed with Europe ? Anything else would result in even more of a mess than the first one left us with.
Any referendum would need an extension, and any extension requires EU agreement, so yes it does follow that any vote would have to be on an acceptable deal to both sides.
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.
Considering that London house prices are higher overall than before the Referendum then some districts must have had some significant increases.
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean up
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.
That’s a big drop. Is it a new build?
My place is down by about 5% and I got about 15% off the original asking price. In centralish London prices are definitely falling a lot faster than the stats are currently showing.
Gearing works both ways. I saw it in the early nineties. I dodged out of the worst, but some friends had serious negative equityblighting them for years.
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean up
This can't be right, we were told so reliably by so many people on the right exactly what Corbyn wanted, many on the left disagreed but there was an understanding that only those on the right really know what the left will do...
I'm still convinced Starmer tricked him.
Well, the cynical view is that he wanted the disaster socialist outcome so much that he wouldn't do this until he was literally threatened with the dissolution of his party.
But all's well that ends well...
He'd let a few dozen MPs walk happily, he works for the members and the country not those MPs on the right of the party IMO.
I see it there is a political schism in Corbyns support crudely defined as Unite v Momentum, do i have a point? Are you Unite or Momentum Corbyn supporter?
The reason why i think such internal political gaming is important here I see momentum driving this policy change as much as Emily and Keir.
Member of neither but more a momentum Corbyn supporter at a guess.
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean up
She tried that in 2017.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.
Well as OGH keeps reminding us things have moved on from 2017...
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean up
She tried that in 2017.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.
That was the death tax that caused the 2017 failure . Times have moved on , Corbyn is toxic now. The shine has well and truly worn off , plus he’s a remainder now
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
The public are known for showing their gratitude?
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslide
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
Possibly but that relies on them avoiding to many No Dealers moving to Farage's Brexit Party or UKIP and whether TIG can still get enough Labour centrists.
I could well see a result similar to Feb 1974, Tories largest party but Corbyn forms a minority government with the SNP and maybe LD and TIG confidence and supply
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
The public are known for showing their gratitude?
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslide
Yeah, that was the meme here 2 short years ago. Can anyone remember what happened next?
I am guessing Seamus is not on board with this one.
His invites to Putin's Valdai Club will dry up if Brexit is stopped.
Funding for An incoming Labours government to change the politics and economy of UK dries up if we Brexit, why can’t Corbyn Milne have been on a journey to this realisation?
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
The public are known for showing their gratitude?
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslide
No they won't. All but a handful of his MPs remain on side because they think better him than nothing, and the voters will do the same. Enough to win? That will be much harder now. But the voters don't care about his unsuitability. It's no different to Lab supporters who think the Tories really are baby killers and the county hates them, even when they are, by votes, the most popular party in the country. It's assuming because you think him awful the public will react appropriately. Even with his terrible rating - he is awful - the public showed great willingness to at the least stop the Tories getting a landslide. And that was when May had respect.
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
The public are known for showing their gratitude?
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslide
No they won't. All but a handful of his MPs remain on side because they think better him than nothing, and the voters will do the same. Enough to win? That will be much harder now. But the voters don't care about his unsuitability.
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
The public are known for showing their gratitude?
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslide
No they won't. All but a handful of his MPs remain on side because they think better him than nothing, and the voters will do the same. Enough to win? That will be much harder now. But the voters don't care about his unsuitability.
Bollocks
It's no different to Lab supporters who think the Tories really are baby killers and the county hates them, even when they are, by votes, the most popular party in the country. It's assuming because you think him awful the public will react appropriately. Even with his terrible rating - he is awful - the public showed great willingness to at the least stop the Tories getting a landslide. And that was when May had respect.
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean up
I think you might be surprised how many people might "lend" Labour their vote if they were offering a second vote. It is the only circumstance in which I would vote for Corbyn
I think May's Deal looks far more likely to pass tonight with Cooper-Letwin enabling Art 50 extension and Labour moving to EUref2 if the ERG vote down May's Deal again they risk no Brexit at all and so most of them will probably cave in the end.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
If the deal passes and dup pull plug . The tories will win majority in any GE as the party which delivered brexit
The public are known for showing their gratitude?
Against toxic anti Semitic brexit betraying Corbyn whose leadership ratings have hit rock bottom , the tories will win landslide
Yeah, that was the meme here 2 short years ago. Can anyone remember what happened next?
NEW THREAD.
Also: when I pull a party popper twice, it only bangs once.
All this excitable talk about another referendum ignores one crucial fact. Will the EU agree to an extension and won’t this depend on what the question is?
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean up
She tried that in 2017.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.
That was the death tax that caused the 2017 failure . Times have moved on , Corbyn is toxic now. The shine has well and truly worn off , plus he’s a remainder now
He was toxic two years ago. Remember Copeland February 2017?
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
Agreed she knows a second vote would be toxic . And she could present the tories as the party honouring the democratic vote and labour as the brexit betrayers/blockers . She will clean up
She tried that in 2017.
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.
That was the death tax that caused the 2017 failure . Times have moved on , Corbyn is toxic now. The shine has well and truly worn off , plus he’s a remainder now
He was toxic two years ago. Remember Copeland February 2017?
This time the Sun and the Mail are going for him, doesn't stand a chance now.
Comments
May will go to country rather than allow a 2nd vote I think.
I also think a few MPs from Labour Leave seats like Flint and Snell and Nandy and Leavers like Skinner and Hoey will also now back the Deal rather than risk no Brexit and that will be enough for the Deal to scrape home even if the DUP and a few ERG diehards still vote against.
However if the Deal passes that means a general election most likely as the DUP VONC the government and May is unlikely to concede a referendum on Brexit to win TIG backing on the VONC
Spoiler alert: It didn't work.
Some are longer than others and some are waaaayyyyy longer than others.
Maybe we can have a referendum on whether to have an election?
I could well see a result similar to Feb 1974, Tories largest party but Corbyn forms a minority government with the SNP and maybe LD and TIG confidence and supply
Also: when I pull a party popper twice, it only bangs once.
And the sooner a GE the better for the government on economic grounds.
But my factoid still stands: 1998 is the only year in British history with no by-elections or general elections.