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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tom Watson plans a new LAB MPs grouping and there’s little Mil

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Two thoughts:

    1) Does anyone really think this pledge would have been made today if the TIG team hadn't broken free?

    2) Is there actually a majority in the House of Commons for a second referendum anyway? It's not as though large numbers of Conservatives are yet supporting one and there will be some Labour dissidents even if the Labour party is whipping in favour of such an amendment.

    It’s a promise to give us a vote on what, exactly?
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .

    So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to say

    'This deals crap, lets not leave?'

    errrr ok?
    No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .

    That is clearly the Starmer plan. But is it the Corbyn one?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .

    So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to say

    'This deals crap, lets not leave?'

    errrr ok?
    No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .
    With what on the other side?? OH wait LABOURS DEAL
    Do you want NO DEAL or Labour's APPLE PIE deal ?

    It's a people's vote.
    But presumably it's Labours Deal or Remain.

    so labour is now pro-Brexit?
    The amusing thing is now that the focus of attention will be on Jezza not May - "what's your referendum Jezza ?"

    All this to avoid being nice to Jews - it's amazing.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If Labour are going to do this then not having Remain on the ballot would inflame tensions and they’d get all the publicity of a second vote with of course some blowback from Leave areas without any of the benefit from Remainers .

    Labour Remainers aren’t interested in the CU unicorn plan and only remain on the ballot will stop further defections .
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .

    So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to say

    'This deals crap, lets not leave?'

    errrr ok?
    No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .

    That is clearly the Starmer plan. But is it the Corbyn one?

    If it's not Corbyn's plan, then suspect there will be a load of further Labour / TIG defections.....especially as JC has now massively elevated the hopes of a referendum happening
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:



    Well done for your Wiki research. Further evidence of weak and disconnected argument though (1 out of 10 marks), that further strengthens my proposition.


    I can't decide which hypothesis is creepier: that you went to Cambridge and came away with nothing to show for it but a propensity to sneer at people who didn't, or that you did not go there and are an over enthusiastic fanboy wannabe with your nose pressed against the academic shop window. Unattractive either way. Stop embarrassing yourself.
    I'll leave embarrassing oneself to tw*ts like you that still think Brexit was a good idea!
    ?

    I thought in 2016 that brexit was probably a slightly bad idea, so I voted against it, and I think in 2019 that it was probably the worst idea anyone has ever had. Some mistake.

    I take it you are confirming the fanboy hypothesis. Eeeeuw.
    Prat, look at the previous posts. I have no need to be a "fanboy" you numpty! I was asked by the poster why he had deduced he hadn't been there, based on an earlier quip. Similarly I would deduce that you did not vote to remain, but voted leave. All the posts I have seen from you suggest this to be the case. Feeling ashamed of your stupidity? It is good that you are a late convert to common sense. Well done.
    Cambridge University don't teach logic, but if they did, it would probably be raining right now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Corbyn will have given the nod to the lexit Dennis Skinners in the party..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Seems to me that the ideal situation for the party leaders is that May is 'forced' into an extension and Corbyn 'tries' to get a referendum, since the former does not want no deal and the latter does not want to remain (which most second referendum backers do). So each will be pursuing options and hoping to heroically fail to maintain their positions.

    She tried to have us leave on time but was stopped. He tried to give the opportunity to remain in a referendum but was stopped.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hmph, not particularly happy about Labour's move. I still don't see how (a) a referendum gets through the Commons, and (b) a Remain vote happens if a new referendum does happen.

    That said, without wanting to go all Alistair Meeks, Brexiteers have only themselves to blame if this is the end of the dream. Lots of people have been well up for compromises that fulfill the original referendum result while still being sensible (customs union, delaying Brexit until a deal is agreed, etc.), but since a lot of Brexiteers seem intent on saying even those compromises would be a "betrayal of democracy" or whatever, you can understand people who think there's no reasoning with some of them so one may as well just go with one's own ideal outcome.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn will have given the nod to the lexit Dennis Skinners in the party..

    It will be funny to see some of the MPs who've been whinging about Corbyn being "Stalinist" or "not allowing any dissent" suddenly doing a U-turn this week and whinging when Corbyn doesn't threaten to banish Caroline Flint and Dennis Skinner to Siberia if they fail to support a second referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I'm generally of the view that the main headline is more important than anything else. The BBC headline is 'Labour prepared to back new Brexit referendum'. Ok, 'prepared' is not as strong as 'are backing' but it still gets the message out that Corbyn wants - if you want to remain, vote Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn will have given the nod to the lexit Dennis Skinners in the party..

    It will be funny to see some of the MPs who've been whinging about Corbyn being "Stalinist" or "not allowing any dissent" suddenly doing a U-turn this week and whinging when Corbyn doesn't threaten to banish Caroline Flint and Dennis Skinner to Siberia if they fail to support a second referendum.
    Well, at least he's in no danger of them joining the Tiggers.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    You can't have a referendum if you don't have a question. And there's no sign anywhere of there being a question.

    I think we're still headed for no deal exit on March 29th. There may well be theoretical support for an extension, but since it's only purpose will be to avoid no deal it is difficult to see the point. The EU won't support a short (ie. 2-3 month extension) and it is difficult to see their preferred solution of a long extension getting sufficient support in the Tory party. It is the transition period with an option to remain at the end of it.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Danny565 said:

    Hmph, not particularly happy about Labour's move. I still don't see how (a) a referendum gets through the Commons, and (b) a Remain vote happens if a new referendum does happen.

    That said, without wanting to go all Alistair Meeks, Brexiteers have only themselves to blame if this is the end of the dream. Lots of people have been well up for compromises that fulfill the original referendum result while still being sensible (customs union, delaying Brexit until a deal is agreed, etc.), but since a lot of Brexiteers seem intent on saying even those compromises would be a "betrayal of democracy" or whatever, you can understand people who think there's no reasoning with some of them so one may as well just go with one's own ideal outcome.

    Absolutely. I was very much in favour of respecting the referendum result, and in a way I still am. But that doesn't mean supporting a crackpot scheme devised by cretins following a timescale that barely allows for a loo break.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    alex. said:

    You can't have a referendum if you don't have a question. And there's no sign anywhere of there being a question.

    I think we're still headed for no deal exit on March 29th. There may well be theoretical support for an extension, but since it's only purpose will be to avoid no deal it is difficult to see the point. The EU won't support a short (ie. 2-3 month extension) and it is difficult to see their preferred solution of a long extension getting sufficient support in the Tory party. It is the transition period with an option to remain at the end of it.

    Plus a long extension means Uk MEPs..
  • TGOHF said:

    alex. said:

    You can't have a referendum if you don't have a question. And there's no sign anywhere of there being a question.

    I think we're still headed for no deal exit on March 29th. There may well be theoretical support for an extension, but since it's only purpose will be to avoid no deal it is difficult to see the point. The EU won't support a short (ie. 2-3 month extension) and it is difficult to see their preferred solution of a long extension getting sufficient support in the Tory party. It is the transition period with an option to remain at the end of it.

    Plus a long extension means Uk MEPs..
    Farage: EXTENSION NOW!!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    I'm generally of the view that the main headline is more important than anything else. The BBC headline is 'Labour prepared to back new Brexit referendum'. Ok, 'prepared' is not as strong as 'are backing' but it still gets the message out that Corbyn wants - if you want to remain, vote Labour.

    "Vote Labour" where/when? When contacted by an opinion pollster?
  • AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Does anyone have a list of Tory MPs who've even hinted that they might support a new referendum?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    This is probably a good day to be laying a second referendum.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Danny565 said:

    Does anyone have a list of Tory MPs who've even hinted that they might support a new referendum?

    Tory now or at the time ?

    Grieve and Rudd.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Danny565 said:

    Does anyone have a list of Tory MPs who've even hinted that they might support a new referendum?

    Heidi All...Oh.
  • AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    In any putative further referendum, leave also has to now become more of a specific plan / outcome.

    No more super generic "leave" available - presumably that also has an effect, given the variety of different leaver views on what consistutes an acceptable Brexit.
  • TGOHF said:

    alex. said:

    You can't have a referendum if you don't have a question. And there's no sign anywhere of there being a question.

    I think we're still headed for no deal exit on March 29th. There may well be theoretical support for an extension, but since it's only purpose will be to avoid no deal it is difficult to see the point. The EU won't support a short (ie. 2-3 month extension) and it is difficult to see their preferred solution of a long extension getting sufficient support in the Tory party. It is the transition period with an option to remain at the end of it.

    Plus a long extension means Uk MEPs..
    Farage: EXTENSION NOW!!
    Farage is like May and Corbyn here.

    May is a Remainer pretending to back Leave.
    Corbyn is a Leaver pretending to back Remain.
    Farage is a Leaver pretending to not want an extension but would be happy with one.
  • TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
    Credibility is leaking away from him.
  • Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I expect Remain would carry it on a much lower turnout.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    There is zero evidence of Corbyn showing any smarts over this. Today's move is not a move at all - it is a restatement of their existing confused 'policy'. There is no Labour deal to put on the table - there can't be as they aren't in a position to negotiate one. And even if they were, it would take months and months of actual negotiation before they could put it to the public - and in order to do that, they have to be in power - which means winning a general election.

    You cannot have a referendum based on a Labour deal that doesn't exist. We all know that.

    This is just confused thinking from a team that is in panic over more defections - a team that is fragmenting and pulling in different directions. Yes, the same can be said of the Tories - but they actually have a deal on offer. It may not be perfect - but it is available now as the basis for future work.
  • Danny565 said:

    Hmph, not particularly happy about Labour's move. I still don't see how (a) a referendum gets through the Commons, and (b) a Remain vote happens if a new referendum does happen.

    That said, without wanting to go all Alistair Meeks, Brexiteers have only themselves to blame if this is the end of the dream. Lots of people have been well up for compromises that fulfill the original referendum result while still being sensible (customs union, delaying Brexit until a deal is agreed, etc.), but since a lot of Brexiteers seem intent on saying even those compromises would be a "betrayal of democracy" or whatever, you can understand people who think there's no reasoning with some of them so one may as well just go with one's own ideal outcome.

    Absolutely. I was very much in favour of respecting the referendum result, and in a way I still am. But that doesn't mean supporting a crackpot scheme devised by cretins following a timescale that barely allows for a loo break.
    A crackpot scheme devised by cretins is what will happen when a Remain PM sidelined her Leaver Brexit Secretary and gets a Remain Sir Humphrey to take control.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I expect Remain would carry it on a much lower turnout.
    Otherwise known as "the worst possible outcome".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,191
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jessica Elgot

    @jessicaelgot
    RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal

    As you were effectively...

    And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??

    This solves nothing.

    lol

    So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
    If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.
    I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.
    Yes, Corbyn's move helps May, with Cooper Letwin likely to pass and Art 50 to be extended and Labour backing EUref2 (at least for their permanent Customs Union BINO Brexit v Remain) then the ERG have to now realise May's Deal is likely to be the best Brexit they will get
  • TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
    Credibility is leaking away from him.
    He had some credibility?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
    Credibility is leaking away from him.
    Yes, I don't think Corbyn is getting the benefit of the doubt, anymore.

    Twitter Remainers have already changed from YAYYYY to Hold On, What's The Small Print Say, We Don't Trust Him...? Plus lots of Labour Leavers are up in arms,

    If he wants this to make any difference to his plunging reputation and splintering party, he needs to come out with a credible route to winning a vote for a 2nd referendum, and to be explicit that Remain is one of the options in that proposed referendum.

    The days when he could get away with genial waffle are long behind us.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jessica Elgot

    @jessicaelgot
    RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal

    As you were effectively...

    And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??

    This solves nothing.

    lol

    So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
    If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.
    I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.
    I agree with that. Half a loaf is better than none
    Its not even that it is half a loaf. It is pretty much 9/10ths of a loaf. There are a few bits I don't like about it but it meets pretty much all of the requirements set out by the Leave campaigners of any stripe prior to the referendum. This should be the easiest compromise in history for any Leaver who spent more than 30 seconds thinking about it.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I don’t have time to read the thread but FWIW this is great for Corbyn. It draws the poison of the split - why would anyone join TIG vs Watson - but gives them know real influence in policy (just a talking shop)

    All it is in practice is a launch pad for awatsin’s Campaign to be leader after Corbyn.
  • SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
    Credibility is leaking away from him.
    Yes, I don't think Corbyn is getting the benefit of the doubt, anymore.

    Twitter Remainers have already changed from YAYYYY to Hold On, What's The Small Print Say, We Don't Trust Him...? Plus lots of Labour Leavers are up in arms,

    If he wants this to make any difference to his plunging reputation and splintering party, he needs to come out with a credible route to winning a vote for a 2nd referendum, and to be explicit that Remain is one of the options in that proposed referendum.

    The days when he could get away with genial waffle are long behind us.
    Agreed. If he is not specific then he is finished and somehow in an even worse position than before.
  • TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    Ah, that's a different question. I was just referring to the Leave/Remain axis. Goodness knows what happens on the Blue/Red line. I'm not betting on it.

    Although I have had a little dabble on 'Other' in the most seasts market.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If there’s no Remain option then this announcement will do more harm than good . Effectively annoying Remainers even more and seeing more MPs jumping ship .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    If there’s no Remain option then this announcement will do more harm than good . Effectively annoying Remainers even more and seeing more MPs jumping ship .

    Corbyn cannot be that dumb. Surely he cannot be ?!
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
    Credibility is leaking away from him.
    Yes, I don't think Corbyn is getting the benefit of the doubt, anymore.

    Twitter Remainers have already changed from YAYYYY to Hold On, What's The Small Print Say, We Don't Trust Him...? Plus lots of Labour Leavers are up in arms,

    If he wants this to make any difference to his plunging reputation and splintering party, he needs to come out with a credible route to winning a vote for a 2nd referendum, and to be explicit that Remain is one of the options in that proposed referendum.

    The days when he could get away with genial waffle are long behind us.
    Agreed. If he is not specific then he is finished and somehow in an even worse position than before.
    Yes, the anger from Remainers when they realise that this 2nd ref stuff is just a ruse, and has no chance of passing the Commons, and Corbyn has no credible plan to make it pass, is going to be incendiary.

    Unless he proves me wrong and comes up with something concrete and plausible? It might just happen. Might.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
    Credibility is leaking away from him.
    Yes, I don't think Corbyn is getting the benefit of the doubt, anymore.

    Twitter Remainers have already changed from YAYYYY to Hold On, What's The Small Print Say, We Don't Trust Him...? Plus lots of Labour Leavers are up in arms,

    If he wants this to make any difference to his plunging reputation and splintering party, he needs to come out with a credible route to winning a vote for a 2nd referendum, and to be explicit that Remain is one of the options in that proposed referendum.

    The days when he could get away with genial waffle are long behind us.
    Agreed. If he is not specific then he is finished and somehow in an even worse position than before.
    Yes, the anger from Remainers when they realise that this 2nd ref stuff is just a ruse, and has no chance of passing the Commons, and Corbyn has no credible plan to make it pass, is going to be incendiary.

    Unless he proves me wrong and comes up with something concrete and plausible? It might just happen. Might.
    Reckon 50/50. Maybe his original plan was to genially BS his way through this with no clear plan as we potentially suspect.

    But the genie (perhaps accidentially) is out of the bottle now. So if it's not his plan, surely he will be forcibly pushed.
  • I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    If there’s no Remain option then this announcement will do more harm than good . Effectively annoying Remainers even more and seeing more MPs jumping ship .

    Corbyn cannot be that dumb. Surely he cannot be ?!
    It's strange that Labour haven't made this explicit already? Are they botching the announcement because of splits in the leadership?

    That's my suspicion. If I had to put money on it I'd say McDonnell is pushing for a definite 2nd vote, with Remain on the ballot, and Milne and Corbyn want to just pretend to call for a vote, cause they're still hoping for a Chaotic No Deal to usher in socialist paradise.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    If there’s no Remain option then this announcement will do more harm than good . Effectively annoying Remainers even more and seeing more MPs jumping ship .

    Corbyn cannot be that dumb. Surely he cannot be ?!
    Thankfully not . The Labour briefing note says there has to be a credible Leave and Remain option on the ballot .
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    justin124 said:

    The north just went blue

    Very unlikely - Brexit is not a key salient issue with most voters. Morover, if we have another referendum , voters can still vote to leave.
    I disagree entirely with that but in any case supporting the chance to overturn the will of 17.4 million can certainly be spun in a GE
    I think you are overestimating the number that will view it that way, certainly nothing like the 17.4m that voted leave nearly 3 years ago. There is huge disillusionment with the whole process. To many a second vote will seem like a chance to put the whole thing to bed one way or another.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2019
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.

    They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.

    I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.
    I think they would be slight favourites, but only slight.
    I think a lot of Leave areas would become more Leave than they were before.
    Not Swindon, nor Tyneside. Others maybe.
    Not sure they would become any more Labour. Likely less.

    If Corbyn is smart he will play it as seeking a way out of this mess, not purely as a means to Remain. Many in his party will do the latter, keeping that vote, while that he is technically advocating leave will keep most of the labour leavers on board.
    Indeed - all about a GE campaign where he can say "well we supported a second referendum/peoples vote/blah blah" .

    Cynical but are the Remainers daft enough to fall for it ?
    Credibility is leaking away from him.
    Yes, I don't think Corbyn is getting the benefit of the doubt, anymore.

    Twitter Remainers have already changed from YAYYYY to Hold On, What's The Small Print Say, We Don't Trust Him...? Plus lots of Labour Leavers are up in arms,

    If he wants this to make any difference to his plunging reputation and splintering party, he needs to come out with a credible route to winning a vote for a 2nd referendum, and to be explicit that Remain is one of the options in that proposed referendum.

    The days when he could get away with genial waffle are long behind us.
    Agreed. If he is not specific then he is finished and somehow in an even worse position than before.
    Yes, the anger from Remainers when they realise that this 2nd ref stuff is just a ruse, and has no chance of passing the Commons, and Corbyn has no credible plan to make it pass, is going to be incendiary.
    LOL, yeah, and this would show that some of the Remainer MPs aren't acting in good faith.

    It will somehow be Corbyn's fault that Tory MPs didn't vote for a second referendum. Because we all know that Corbyn is famously persuasive with Conservative MPs.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jessica Elgot

    @jessicaelgot
    RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal

    As you were effectively...

    And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??

    This solves nothing.

    lol

    So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
    If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.
    I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.
    I agree with that. Half a loaf is better than none
    A bird in the hand is worth two in a bush Ismail most certainly true. It was dangerous madness for the ERG to vote against the WA as they put the entire project they had been fighting for for decades at risk.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited February 2019

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    How do you get the previous vote enacted? I'm no closer to seeing a means of leaving now than I was 6 months ago...
  • Interesting. Suggests his hand has indeed been forced.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited February 2019

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    No, democracy does not depend on implementing a narrowly-won advisory referendum... if a further referendum provides a different outcome.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,191
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    If there’s no Remain option then this announcement will do more harm than good . Effectively annoying Remainers even more and seeing more MPs jumping ship .

    Corbyn cannot be that dumb. Surely he cannot be ?!
    It's strange that Labour haven't made this explicit already? Are they botching the announcement because of splits in the leadership?

    That's my suspicion. If I had to put money on it I'd say McDonnell is pushing for a definite 2nd vote, with Remain on the ballot, and Milne and Corbyn want to just pretend to call for a vote, cause they're still hoping for a Chaotic No Deal to usher in socialist paradise.
    Except if there is No Deal why would angry Remainers protest by voting Labour when they now have TIG?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Labour back another referendum and the move will stuff the tiggers...

    Santa delivering my christmas presents a bit early this year.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Corbyn's second referendum question, it appears, will be:

    "Should a damaging Tory Brexit be forced on the country?"

    The Yes side of this question seems clear.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    nico67 said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    If there’s no Remain option then this announcement will do more harm than good . Effectively annoying Remainers even more and seeing more MPs jumping ship .

    Corbyn cannot be that dumb. Surely he cannot be ?!
    Thankfully not . The Labour briefing note says there has to be a credible Leave and Remain option on the ballot .
    I think i'm seeing a flaw in the policy here...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
  • I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    No, democracy does not depend on implementing a narrowly-won advisory referendum... if a further referendum provides a different outcome.
    It depends on following the instruction given by the electorate. If you don't want to do what they say then don't ask the question. And suffer the consequences.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Labour back another referendum and the move will stuff the tiggers...

    Santa delivering my christmas presents a bit early this year.

    They left because they wanted to reverse Brexit, among other things. If him doing this achieves that, I would think they would accept that they don't get their brand new party to be a big force.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's second referendum question, it appears, will be:

    "Should a damaging Tory Brexit be forced on the country?"

    The Yes side of this question seems clear.

    Luckily, Corbyn doesn't get to write the referendum question.
  • Sean_F said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
    If they see it as a plausible end point to the current ongoing shambles then it might be very soon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    With the discussion of student loads and graduate taxes, one of the benefits of the current system that any change needs to take into account is that increasing numbers of people are choosing to spend time living abroad and out of the UK income tax system.

    The real elephant in the room is EU students who disappear the day they graduate, with a ‘loan’ that can’t be collected in any conventional sense.

    A messy ‘half way house’ between government and priveate funding just doesn’t work in practice, but the problems are decades down the line.

    Tertiary education is one of few areas where the USA have a very good model, with community colleges, state universities and the Ivy League, with different funding models across all three.

    The elephant is in fact more like a tapir.
    More UK students move abroad after graduating than EU students, and the UK students have bigger loans (they are entitled to maintenance loans, where EU students are not).
    A reasonable proportion of the U.K. students will come back into contact with the U.K. tax system at some point though. A lot will also be self employed in the future, and able to carefully manage their income, dividends and savings in ways that minimise their loan repayment burden.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Read the Labour briefing note . But a credible Remain option could be one where the EU decide to throw caution to the wind and offer up some compromise on freedom of movement . Who knows what might happen. If the EU feel this is the last chance for the UK to stay .
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    Labour back another referendum and the move will stuff the tiggers...

    Santa delivering my christmas presents a bit early this year.

    They left because they wanted to reverse Brexit, among other things. If him doing this achieves that, I would think they would accept that they don't get their brand new party to be a big force.
    This will be true for some of them, but not all.
  • eek said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    How do you get the previous vote enacted? I'm no closer to seeing a means of leaving now than I was 6 months ago...
    MPs abide by the will of the people. There is a deal on the table. It may not be perfect but it is a deal that fulfils the instruction of the referendum. Alternatively leave without a deal. They have always been the two legitimate choices. What they cannot do is claim they agree with the referendum result (as the overwhelming majority of them did) but then refuse to enact either a deal or No Deal.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Peter Kyle Labour MP is delighted. Good enough for me .
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
    If they see it as a plausible end point to the current ongoing shambles then it might be very soon.
    Unlike the politicians it appears that the public aren't stupid and know that a second referendum will resolve very little. (and, in passing, it will probably allow a future pro-Brexit party to seek to leave the EU/trigger article 50 without bothering with a referendum, but on the back of a manifesto commitment)
  • Sean_F said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
    No but once we have left it would be entirely right for us to have another one if there is support for it. To deny that would be as bad as overturning the first one now.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
    If they see it as a plausible end point to the current ongoing shambles then it might be very soon.
    Don't the polls vary wildly depending on how you ask the question?

    i.e. if you ask the voters, Do you want a 2nd EU referendum, then they say NO, bigtime. However, if you ask them, Do you want a final say on The Deal? then they say YES.

    Hence the phrase "people's vote", used very deliberately by those clamouring for a 2nd referendum.

    FWIW I think there is a just-about-democratic case for a Final Vote on the Deal, even if it is messy and unhappy. But it should be done in two stages as suggested by some here. 1st vote on TMay's deal Yes or No. If No, then we have vote 2: Remain or No Deal Exit.

  • nico67 said:

    Peter Kyle Labour MP is delighted. Good enough for me .

    Bet you're sorry you threw that brick through his window now! ;-)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jessica Elgot

    @jessicaelgot
    RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal

    As you were effectively...

    And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??

    This solves nothing.

    lol

    So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
    If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.
    I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.
    I agree with that. Half a loaf is better than none
    Its not even that it is half a loaf. It is pretty much 9/10ths of a loaf. There are a few bits I don't like about it but it meets pretty much all of the requirements set out by the Leave campaigners of any stripe prior to the referendum. This should be the easiest compromise in history for any Leaver who spent more than 30 seconds thinking about it.
    Although even as a Remainer I agree with you re the WA, can I raise a small flaw in your logic?

    The 'small' part being a reference to certain MPs' brains...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Corbyn's second referendum question, it appears, will be:

    "Should a damaging Tory Brexit be forced on the country?"

    The Yes side of this question seems clear.

    Luckily, Corbyn doesn't get to write the referendum question.
    You have to be literate to do that.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Peter Kyle Labour MP is delighted. Good enough for me .

    Bet you're sorry you threw that brick through his window now! ;-)
    Very funny ! To be honest I can’t see a second vote happening but I do see Mays deal going through now .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Has Corbyn's cunning plan unravelled yet?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
    If they see it as a plausible end point to the current ongoing shambles then it might be very soon.
    Don't the polls vary wildly depending on how you ask the question?

    i.e. if you ask the voters, Do you want a 2nd EU referendum, then they say NO, bigtime. However, if you ask them, Do you want a final say on The Deal? then they say YES.

    Hence the phrase "people's vote", used very deliberately by those clamouring for a 2nd referendum.

    FWIW I think there is a just-about-democratic case for a Final Vote on the Deal, even if it is messy and unhappy. But it should be done in two stages as suggested by some here. 1st vote on TMay's deal Yes or No. If No, then we have vote 2: Remain or No Deal Exit.

    A double referendum would have been fine, had it been agreed in 2015, although it would have resulted in bigger win for Leave, on the first vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Peter Kyle Labour MP is delighted. Good enough for me .

    Bet you're sorry you threw that brick through his window now! ;-)
    Very funny ! To be honest I can’t see a second vote happening but I do see Mays deal going through now .
    Well, that would be some result for all of us even if it is five months late.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    According to Laura Kuenssberg:
    Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, told me the UK would have to ask for an extension and explain what it's for - the EU could not, he warned, just spend another couple of months going round in circles.

    That makes it sounds as though he's thinking only of a very short extension, and is going to want a definite plan of action.

    I wonder whether there's some wishful thinking going on based on what Tusk has said.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    SeanT said:
    Pah! And if it doesn't back a 2nd referendum, there will be unity?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    One wonders how the EU will respond to a second referendum’s new lease of life. They don’t need to appease May if there’s a chance they could keep us in the EU otherwise.
  • Wouldn't be at all surprised if business, especially big business, quickly comes out of the blocks behind the referendum plan.

    An interesting potential unholy alliance with Corbyn. Puts the Tories under pressure there as well. Especially from a number of their own donors. Interesting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    notme2 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jessica Elgot

    @jessicaelgot
    RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal

    As you were effectively...

    And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??

    This solves nothing.

    lol

    So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
    If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.
    I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.
    I agree with that. Half a loaf is better than none
    A bird in the hand is worth two in a bush Ismail most certainly true. It was dangerous madness for the ERG to vote against the WA as they put the entire project they had been fighting for for decades at risk.
    Yup. Planks.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,591
    edited February 2019
    Pondering what the Jeremy Corbyn Referendum announcement might mean once the immediate headline has died.

    1 We leave on 29 March by operation of law so there is no time for one. Obvious

    2 Delay is not in JCs gift, nor even in UK gift, though it would probably happen in propitious circumstances. The opposition wanting a referendum isn't enough of a reason.

    3 Jezza has been notably coy in what he means by 2nd referendum. If he was being straightforward he would be less so.

    4 An actual 2nd referendum on remain/leave is, to say the least, both risky and divisive and there is no reason to think it would solve anything.

    5 The remaining thing which makes sense is to back the WA, (but perhaps not the PD) at least by letting it through on Labour abstentions, and THEN but only after leaving have some sort of people's vote.

    6 Remain can't be on the list because we would have left. Mandate delivered. Referendum period over. Rejoin then becomes a new perfectly proper and respect worthy position.

    7 The WA leaves lots of Brexit possibilities open from Rejoin to Norway via Canada, and vitally gives the UK time to suck it and see.

    Is it possible that Jezza's mystical utterances will prove to be about people's votes after leaving, not before? And might this crack his problem of needing to support leave in the north and remain in the south?
  • ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jessica Elgot

    @jessicaelgot
    RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal

    As you were effectively...

    And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??

    This solves nothing.

    lol

    So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
    If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.
    I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.
    I agree with that. Half a loaf is better than none
    Its not even that it is half a loaf. It is pretty much 9/10ths of a loaf. There are a few bits I don't like about it but it meets pretty much all of the requirements set out by the Leave campaigners of any stripe prior to the referendum. This should be the easiest compromise in history for any Leaver who spent more than 30 seconds thinking about it.
    Although even as a Remainer I agree with you re the WA, can I raise a small flaw in your logic?

    The 'small' part being a reference to certain MPs' brains...
    LOL. Yes I do now see the massive flaw in my thinking. :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited February 2019
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
    If they see it as a plausible end point to the current ongoing shambles then it might be very soon.
    Don't the polls vary wildly depending on how you ask the question?

    i.e. if you ask the voters, Do you want a 2nd EU referendum, then they say NO, bigtime. However, if you ask them, Do you want a final say on The Deal? then they say YES.

    Hence the phrase "people's vote", used very deliberately by those clamouring for a 2nd referendum.

    FWIW I think there is a just-about-democratic case for a Final Vote on the Deal, even if it is messy and unhappy. But it should be done in two stages as suggested by some here. 1st vote on TMay's deal Yes or No. If No, then we have vote 2: Remain or No Deal Exit.

    A double referendum would have been fine, had it been agreed in 2015, although it would have resulted in bigger win for Leave, on the first vote.

    image
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Wouldn't be at all surprised if business, especially big business, quickly comes out of the blocks behind the referendum plan.

    An interesting potential unholy alliance with Corbyn. Puts the Tories under pressure there as well. Especially from a number of their own donors. Interesting.

    Big business is not popular with the voters, these days.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    SeanT said:
    Pah! And if it doesn't back a 2nd referendum, there will be unity?
    Looking from a purely MPs defecting POV this is the best move, MPs leaving to support Brexit are going to struggle more than those leaving to oppose Brexit, a route which will now be cut off.

    There are only a few which will be dead against the idea, such as Flint and I can't see them leaving because of that, even if they did the potential pool of hardcore leavers as opposed to hardcore remainers is much bigger.
  • Sean_F said:

    Wouldn't be at all surprised if business, especially big business, quickly comes out of the blocks behind the referendum plan.

    An interesting potential unholy alliance with Corbyn. Puts the Tories under pressure there as well. Especially from a number of their own donors. Interesting.

    Big business is not popular with the voters, these days.
    It is when they provide a lot of local jobs - Swindon, Sunderland, etc. That's where it connects.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    eek said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    How do you get the previous vote enacted? I'm no closer to seeing a means of leaving now than I was 6 months ago...
    MPs abide by the will of the people. There is a deal on the table. It may not be perfect but it is a deal that fulfils the instruction of the referendum. Alternatively leave without a deal. They have always been the two legitimate choices. What they cannot do is claim they agree with the referendum result (as the overwhelming majority of them did) but then refuse to enact either a deal or No Deal.
    As a footnote to this, if you follow this logic, the "overwhelming majority" does of course exclude the SNP: they voted against holding the referendum, and given its advisory status, there's no reason they should be held to implementing its result.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    What is the situation with the legislation (AIUI, 6 Bills). necessary before we leave? People blithely stating that we just leave on March 29th need to show how and when this necessary legislation gets through both houses.
    Or do we just ignore that and charge on?
  • Sean_F said:

    I don't think the second referendum will happen.

    But boy is this going to be handy ammunition for rejoiners in the post-Brexit debate. It was a Tory Brexit pushed in the face of opinion polls opposing Brexit. And a referendum refused despite being called for by every other opposition party, huge crowds of demonstrators and even in the face of splits in the Tory Party itself.

    How undemocratic.

    They can have their second vote after we enact the first. That is democracy.
    A second referendum is not all that popular with the public.
    I thought the quarter of a million who go marching for it were all that counts.

    After all, they do contain all of the great and the good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    SeanT said:
    Pah! And if it doesn't back a 2nd referendum, there will be unity?
    Well quite. It's the opposite problem to the Tory ultra remainers - the ERG outnumber them, and the Labour remainers outnumber Flint and co, so the weak leader will tack to those with the loudest shout.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    edited February 2019

    Sean_F said:

    Wouldn't be at all surprised if business, especially big business, quickly comes out of the blocks behind the referendum plan.

    An interesting potential unholy alliance with Corbyn. Puts the Tories under pressure there as well. Especially from a number of their own donors. Interesting.

    Big business is not popular with the voters, these days.
    It is when they provide a lot of local jobs - Swindon, Sunderland, etc. That's where it connects.
    Probably not even there. I think people view large companies in much the same light as politicians. They see enough of them nationalising losses and privatising profits, dodging taxes, getting bungs from governments. Most big businesses are pretty good on the whole, but enough are bad to tar the rest.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    edited February 2019
    Can someone who reads Hansard all day explain to my shrivelled brain when this Labour policy will be tested in the Commons? Will it be this week with Cooper wotsit, or the new Meaningful Vote in March?

    We are 33 days from Brexit. Incredible it has come down to this, at the bitter end. It reminds me of a really really REALLY shit version of Flintoff's Ashes.
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