This can't be right, we were told so reliably by so many people on the right exactly what Corbyn wanted, many on the left disagreed but there was an understanding that only those on the right really know what the left will do...
I'm still convinced Starmer tricked him.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is either a tactical retreat (ie open the pressure valve) by JC, or a response to a straight threat by a high-ranking remainer along the lines of “pivot or see a mass walkout to TIG on Thursday including half a dozen potential party leaders”.
Although I wouldn’t put it past JC to sit there with his fingers in his ears going lalalalalala, it seems to me his position has been weakened significantly in the past week.
Just trying to work out how many Tories you need to pass Deal+PV.
Start with the last confidence vote for the govt vs opposition baseline: 325 to 306, maj 19 so you have to swing 10.
25 Lab rebels go to the dark side (see upthread), 3 Tories go TIG, now it's 32. Add a few misc small party votes and maybe 35?
Seems like it might be a doable number if the alternatives are the No Deal Kaiju and endless extensions, but would their consituency associations string them up from a lamppost?
They could claim they were voting for May's Deal - it is after all the only way it's going to get through.
Right and like I say if you've passed the anti-kaiju motion first, they can say they're voting to stop dicking around and actually get brexit done.
And even if their constituency associations did turn nasty, they could always jump on the TIG wagon.
Corbyn's best outcome was the deal passed thanks to Labour rebels who he could disavow. He cannot have that, so I guess not being able to get a referendum thanks to Labour rebels would be the next best thing.
ERG could fold now, and accept there's a real risk of not leaving if they don't sign May's deal (and then revisit it all later, as Gove keeps saying).
This is precisely what Jezza wants. Tory Brexit with none of his fingerprints anywhere near it.
Since Corbyn is only accepting a 2nd referendum for May's deal, but not for "Labour Brexit", the Tories could really wind the Remainers up by passing "Labour Brexit".
Not sure it can be classed as winding up if it sees remaining in the customs union.
I think it would wind up a lot of the People's Vote mob if the second referendum turned out to be May's deal vs No deal...
It would, but literally nobody is arguing for that except Brexity trolls on the interwebs.
I jest, but it's unironically the fairest form of "people's" vote. The people voted, indicating a narrow desire to leave. The second referendum should therefore be about how people want to leave.
Speaking as a democrat, I'd actually be pretty happy with a "No deal" vs "May's deal" vs "Labour deal / BINO". However, either a "no deal vs remain" or "may's deal vs remain" only both look like massive stitch ups to me, because you will get enough people either saying "no deal is too terrifying, let's remain, even though I would have preferred to leave with May's deal" as well as your fair share of "May's deal is so bad we might as well remain, no deal would be better (as a few on here espouse).
In short, if there is going to be a second referendum, the real battle will be on what exactly ends up on the ballot paper. Because that will determine who wins the vote.
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
You taking the 25 for granted? That’s the same mistake Mr Big. 😁 Those that campaigned for remain and found their constituency go leave no longer have to play the game. They have been freed from that game. I predict labour MPs voting against will not only be in single figures, but less than 5.
No I am not.. I am quoting labour sources shown downthread
And I am only the messenger. Frankly TM deal or remain are fine with me
Brexit goes tribal now, thats why the 25 get squeezed and whittled down. Talking to, buying, whipping at its most serious. Its obvious the ERG are toast, by the mood music. May openly not reopening the WA not removing the backstop, she is now openly sat down with the EU discussing lengths of A50 delay. Meanwhile the ERG and DUP? Not a peep out of them. They are conflicted, suck up Mays deal or be the Brexit wreckers.
I think you're about 20 years older than their average customer.
I like Zizzi's, I like The Handmade Burger Company, I love Subway.
I bloody love Yo Sushi!
As a good Muslim boy it is very difficult to find a nice eatery.
There are Nandos with Halal meat. The bit that worries me (but not the Muslims I know who frequent the Halal Nandos) is why does the one in Boro do Halal meat but the others nearby don't when they are all supplied by the same lorry.
I was in fact quoting Michael Hicks, who said Henry VII was 'a king elected by proportional representation. He was the first choice of very few people, but gained enough transfers from other candidates to become king when they were ruled out.' (He obviously means STV not PR, but I'm not responsible for his misunderstanding of constitutional theory.)
He did a fairly effective job of seizing a firm grasp on the throne after he became king, though.
Thanks in no small part to these selfsame supporters. Elizabeth obligingly bore him a son nine months after their marriage. Oxford and Northumberland commanded the army that won at Stoke. Surrey (who had supported Richard) restored order in the north after the tax riots of 1489. The southern gentry kept order for him in London through plague and rioting. And Edward of Warwick helpfully became progressively more insane as he aged until he was tricked into doing something treasonous and beheaded in 1499.
Henry's genius was always in persuading people that whatever his faults he was better than the alternatives. At one and the same time it made him a highly effective king and means in the verdict of posterity he has always suffered compared to his energetic and dynamic son and youngest granddaughter, who ruled very much more by their own charisma.
Hmmm... Reminds me of something>
Theresa's genius was always in persuading people that whatever her faults she was better than the alternatives. At one and the same time it made her a highly effective..." Ah, no the similarity has broken down at that point.
I think you're about 20 years older than their average customer.
I like Zizzi's, I like The Handmade Burger Company, I love Subway.
I bloody love Yo Sushi!
As a good Muslim boy it is very difficult to find a nice eatery.
There are Nandos with Halal meat. The bit that worries me (but not the Muslims I know who frequent the Halal Nandos) is why does the one in Boro do Halal meat but the others nearby don't when they are all supplied by the same lorry.
Nando's have very good demographic data on which they make the decision. I guess you can get anything delivered in any lorry, some meat suppliers probably even do Halal and not themselves.
I was in fact quoting Michael Hicks, who said Henry VII was 'a king elected by proportional representation. He was the first choice of very few people, but gained enough transfers from other candidates to become king when they were ruled out.' (He obviously means STV not PR, but I'm not responsible for his misunderstanding of constitutional theory.)
He did a fairly effective job of seizing a firm grasp on the throne after he became king, though.
Thanks in no small part to these selfsame supporters. Elizabeth obligingly bore him a son nine months after their marriage. Oxford and Northumberland commanded the army that won at Stoke. Surrey (who had supported Richard) restored order in the north after the tax riots of 1489. The southern gentry kept order for him in London through plague and rioting. And Edward of Warwick helpfully became progressively more insane as he aged until he was tricked into doing something treasonous and beheaded in 1499.
Henry's genius was always in persuading people that whatever his faults he was better than the alternatives. At one and the same time it made him a highly effective king and means in the verdict of posterity he has always suffered compared to his energetic and dynamic son and youngest granddaughter, who ruled very much more by their own charisma.
Hmmm... Reminds me of something>
Theresa's genius was always in persuading people that whatever her faults she was better than the alternatives. At one and the same time it made her a highly effective..." Ah, no the similarity has broken down at that point.
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
You taking the 25 for granted? That’s the same mistake Mr Big. 😁 Those that campaigned for remain and found their constituency go leave no longer have to play the game. They have been freed from that game. I predict labour MPs voting against will not only be in single figures, but less than 5.
No I am not.. I am quoting labour sources shown downthread
And I am only the messenger. Frankly TM deal or remain are fine with me
Brexit goes tribal now, thats why the 25 get squeezed and whittled down. Talking to, buying, whipping at its most serious. Its obvious the ERG are toast, by the mood music. May openly not reopening the WA not removing the backstop, she is now openly sat down with the EU discussing lengths of A50 delay. Meanwhile the ERG and DUP? Not a peep out of them. They are conflicted, suck up Mays deal or be the Brexit wreckers.
I suggest you have many assumptions there but I am cast caring.
Corbyn's best outcome was the deal passed thanks to Labour rebels who he could disavow. He cannot have that, so I guess not being able to get a referendum thanks to Labour rebels would be the next best thing.
ERG could fold now, and accept there's a real risk of not leaving if they don't sign May's deal (and then revisit it all later, as Gove keeps saying).
This is precisely what Jezza wants. Tory Brexit with none of his fingerprints anywhere near it.
Yes, but we know plenty of ERGers think the deal is worse than Leaving, so the risk of not getting Brexit is not as strong a motivator as it could be.
We know some postured that it was.
Whether they would actually vote that way when it mattered might be rather different.
Such has been suggested for month after month after month. They still aren't budging whenever the next big crunch point comes. I hope it is not so, but perhaps they actually mean what they keep saying they mean?
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
Apparently Momentum are being mobilized in those leave areas !
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
You taking the 25 for granted? That’s the same mistake Mr Big. 😁 Those that campaigned for remain and found their constituency go leave no longer have to play the game. They have been freed from that game. I predict labour MPs voting against will not only be in single figures, but less than 5.
No I am not.. I am quoting labour sources shown downthread
And I am only the messenger. Frankly TM deal or remain are fine with me
Brexit goes tribal now, thats why the 25 get squeezed and whittled down. Talking to, buying, whipping at its most serious. Its obvious the ERG are toast, by the mood music. May openly not reopening the WA not removing the backstop, she is now openly sat down with the EU discussing lengths of A50 delay. Meanwhile the ERG and DUP? Not a peep out of them. They are conflicted, suck up Mays deal or be the Brexit wreckers.
I suggest you have many assumptions there but I am cast caring.
TM deal or remain has been my position for months
You aware Michael Hestletine has gone full grabcocque, raising a toast to St Gammons day?
Just trying to work out how many Tories you need to pass Deal+PV.
Start with the last confidence vote for the govt vs opposition baseline: 325 to 306, maj 19 so you have to swing 10.
25 Lab rebels go to the dark side (see upthread), 3 Tories go TIG, now it's 32. Add a few misc small party votes and maybe 35?
Seems like it might be a doable number if the alternatives are the No Deal Kaiju and endless extensions, but would their consituency associations string them up from a lamppost?
They could claim they were voting for May's Deal - it is after all the only way it's going to get through.
Right and like I say if you've passed the anti-kaiju motion first, they can say they're voting to stop dicking around and actually get brexit done.
And even if their constituency associations did turn nasty, they could always jump on the TIG wagon.
Yup, and TIG could offer them places on their European Parliament list.
Looks like there could for once be some smart if cynical politics from Corbyn in tandem with his Leave MPs.
Corbyn can back a vote with a deniable nod and wink to his leavers. Gets to say to Remainers he tried. Leave MPs can tell their constituencies they stood up for their constituencies vote.
Corbyn can make out like he's listened to his critics.
Only Jeremy Corbyn could find a way of splitting the Labour Party even more by following the party's avowed policy.
Hardly 'even more'. Not doing it would probably have have led to actual defections, not just rebellions. Barron was one of only 3 Lab MPs who voted for May's deal after all.
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
You taking the 25 for granted? That’s the same mistake Mr Big. 😁 Those that campaigned for remain and found their constituency go leave no longer have to play the game. They have been freed from that game. I predict labour MPs voting against will not only be in single figures, but less than 5.
No I am not.. I am quoting labour sources shown downthread
And I am only the messenger. Frankly TM deal or remain are fine with me
Brexit goes tribal now, thats why the 25 get squeezed and whittled down. Talking to, buying, whipping at its most serious. Its obvious the ERG are toast, by the mood music. May openly not reopening the WA not removing the backstop, she is now openly sat down with the EU discussing lengths of A50 delay. Meanwhile the ERG and DUP? Not a peep out of them. They are conflicted, suck up Mays deal or be the Brexit wreckers.
I suggest you have many assumptions there but I am cast caring.
TM deal or remain has been my position for months
You aware Michael Hestletine has gone full grabcocque, raising a toast to St Gammons day?
As with pineapple pizza, once is often judged more than sufficient.
They do a bucket of roulette wings - some mild, some medium, some hot - but indistinguishable visually. It’s like Brexit - you order it but with do idea what’s coming your way.
Looks like there could for once be some smart if cynical politics from Corbyn in tandem with his Leave MPs.
Corbyn can back a vote with a deniable nod and wink to his leavers. Gets to say to Remainers he tried. Leave MPs can tell their constituencies they stood up for their constituencies vote.
Corbyn can make out like he's listened to his critics.
Nothing is done about antisemitism. Again.
Plus, if there is any chance of getting close to a 2nd vote proposal passing, May will call a GE.
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
You taking the 25 for granted? That’s the same mistake Mr Big. 😁 Those that campaigned for remain and found their constituency go leave no longer have to play the game. They have been freed from that game. I predict labour MPs voting against will not only be in single figures, but less than 5.
I've lost the plot - when is this vote going to be held, is it this week?
No, its the twelfth that May corrects as by the twelfth with her delay is delay logic that everyone believes is second Tuesday in March.
Only Jeremy Corbyn could find a way of splitting the Labour Party even more by following the party's avowed policy.
Hardly 'even more'. Not doing it would probably have have led to actual defections, not just rebellions. Barron was one of only 3 Lab MPs who voted for May's deal after all.
I do believe he wants/wanted a No Deal Brexit. However, since that risks splitting his party, and indeed since it now looks unlikely, the next best thing for him is to Remain.
If we did Remain it leaves the Tories looking divided and impotent, and perhaps looking even more extremist. May’s successor will surely be a Hard Brexiter who will have to promise to make Europhilia a capital crime or some such bollocks.
This can't be right, we were told so reliably by so many people on the right exactly what Corbyn wanted, many on the left disagreed but there was an understanding that only those on the right really know what the left will do...
I'm still convinced Starmer tricked him.
Well, the cynical view is that he wanted the disaster socialist outcome so much that he wouldn't do this until he was literally threatened with the dissolution of his party.
But all's well that ends well...
He'd let a few dozen MPs walk happily, he works for the members and the country not those MPs on the right of the party IMO.
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
You taking the 25 for granted? That’s the same mistake Mr Big. 😁 Those that campaigned for remain and found their constituency go leave no longer have to play the game. They have been freed from that game. I predict labour MPs voting against will not only be in single figures, but less than 5.
No I am not.. I am quoting labour sources shown downthread
And I am only the messenger. Frankly TM deal or remain are fine with me
Brexit goes tribal now, thats why the 25 get squeezed and whittled down. Talking to, buying, whipping at its most serious. Its obvious the ERG are toast, by the mood music. May openly not reopening the WA not removing the backstop, she is now openly sat down with the EU discussing lengths of A50 delay. Meanwhile the ERG and DUP? Not a peep out of them. They are conflicted, suck up Mays deal or be the Brexit wreckers.
I suggest you have many assumptions there but I am cast caring.
TM deal or remain has been my position for months
You aware Michael Hestletine has gone full grabcocque, raising a toast to St Gammons day?
I am not interested in silly comments
I agree it was silly for Hezza to say such a thing. Bad taste.
Only Jeremy Corbyn could find a way of splitting the Labour Party even more by following the party's avowed policy.
Hardly 'even more'. Not doing it would probably have have led to actual defections, not just rebellions. Barron was one of only 3 Lab MPs who voted for May's deal after all.
And Lucy Powell?
Yes, a few more will rebel. But they're hardly going to go to the Tiggers over this and how many will follow Austin? Versus how many were going to walk if Corbyn refused to do what he has?
Come on, there's no contest. May has to face that the ERG outnumber the remainer ultras, and Corbyn has to face that the remainers outnumber his leave backers. Both act accordingly.
Looks like there could for once be some smart if cynical politics from Corbyn in tandem with his Leave MPs.
Corbyn can back a vote with a deniable nod and wink to his leavers. Gets to say to Remainers he tried. Leave MPs can tell their constituencies they stood up for their constituencies vote.
Corbyn can make out like he's listened to his critics.
Nothing is done about antisemitism. Again.
Plus, if there is any chance of getting close to a 2nd vote proposal passing, May will call a GE.
I doubt she has a problem with the Deal+PV proposal, provided she can blame someone else for making it happen. Getting a mandate for her deal would make her job easier, as would brexit going away and leaving her to get on with the things she went into politics to do like creating a huge dystopian surveillance state.
Just trying to work out how many Tories you need to pass Deal+PV.
Start with the last confidence vote for the govt vs opposition baseline: 325 to 306, maj 19 so you have to swing 10.
25 Lab rebels go to the dark side (see upthread), 3 Tories go TIG, now it's 32. Add a few misc small party votes and maybe 35?
Seems like it might be a doable number if the alternatives are the No Deal Kaiju and endless extensions, but would their consituency associations string them up from a lamppost?
They could claim they were voting for May's Deal - it is after all the only way it's going to get through.
Right and like I say if you've passed the anti-kaiju motion first, they can say they're voting to stop dicking around and actually get brexit done.
And even if their constituency associations did turn nasty, they could always jump on the TIG wagon.
Yup, and TIG could offer them places on their European Parliament list.
If TIG are campaigning under the banner of The Independent Group, all manner of independent candidates could get an unexpected bounce.
I do believe he wants/wanted a No Deal Brexit. However, since that risks splitting his party, and indeed since it now looks unlikely, the next best thing for him is to Remain.
If we did Remain it leaves the Tories looking divided and impotent, and perhaps looking even more extremist. May’s successor will surely be a Hard Brexiter who will have to promise to make Europhilia a capital crime or some such bollocks.
Corbyn is being misread, sure - he should have a big sign over his head saying 'AVOID'. (Or possibly 'A VOID').
Keep saying it Big G if it makes you feel better. But you are wrong.
You are wrong to take Labour leave votes for granted as not going to Labour in a general election.
You may not even be right that it was Labour votes that made key difference in those areas called leave constituency’s. 2017 GE hints at such. The reason is, in 2016, up and down the country, polling stations didn't get all the usual faces, but quite a lot of faces who don't go in there very often, if at all. The rationale was voting leave because remain belonged to the political establishment these voters think never listens to them and has hollowed out their communities with globalisation and austerity. Not a rationale that suggests they rush into arms of long standing conservative government.
That’s my reasoning why your statement is wrong. Where’s your reasoning supporting your statement.
I would refer you to tonight comments by labour mps in leave seats with 25 already saying they will vote against
You taking the 25 for granted? That’s the same mistake Mr Big. 😁 Those that campaigned for remain and found their constituency go leave no longer have to play the game. They have been freed from that game. I predict labour MPs voting against will not only be in single figures, but less than 5.
I've lost the plot - when is this vote going to be held, is it this week?
No, its the twelfth that May corrects as by the twelfth with her delay is delay logic that everyone believes is second Tuesday in March.
This can't be right, we were told so reliably by so many people on the right exactly what Corbyn wanted, many on the left disagreed but there was an understanding that only those on the right really know what the left will do...
I'm still convinced Starmer tricked him.
Well, the cynical view is that he wanted the disaster socialist outcome so much that he wouldn't do this until he was literally threatened with the dissolution of his party.
But all's well that ends well...
He'd let a few dozen MPs walk happily, he works for the members and the country not those MPs on the right of the party IMO.
I see it there is a political schism in Corbyns support crudely defined as Unite v Momentum, do i have a point? Are you Unite or Momentum Corbyn supporter?
The reason why i think such internal political gaming is important here I see momentum driving this policy change as much as Emily and Keir.
Just trying to work out how many Tories you need to pass Deal+PV.
Start with the last confidence vote for the govt vs opposition baseline: 325 to 306, maj 19 so you have to swing 10.
25 Lab rebels go to the dark side (see upthread), 3 Tories go TIG, now it's 32. Add a few misc small party votes and maybe 35?
Seems like it might be a doable number if the alternatives are the No Deal Kaiju and endless extensions, but would their consituency associations string them up from a lamppost?
They could claim they were voting for May's Deal - it is after all the only way it's going to get through.
Right and like I say if you've passed the anti-kaiju motion first, they can say they're voting to stop dicking around and actually get brexit done.
And even if their constituency associations did turn nasty, they could always jump on the TIG wagon.
Yup, and TIG could offer them places on their European Parliament list.
If TIG are campaigning under the banner of The Independent Group, all manner of independent candidates could get an unexpected bounce.
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.
I was in fact quoting Michael Hicks, who said Henry VII was 'a king elected by proportional representation. He was the first choice of very few people, but gained enough transfers from other candidates to become king when they were ruled out.' (He obviously means STV not PR, but I'm not responsible for his misunderstanding of constitutional theory.)
He did a fairly effective job of seizing a firm grasp on the throne after he became king, though.
Thanks in no small part to these selfsame supporters. Elizabeth obligingly bore him a son nine months after their marriage. Oxford and Northumberland commanded the army that won at Stoke. Surrey (who had supported Richard) restored order in the north after the tax riots of 1489. The southern gentry kept order for him in London through plague and rioting. And Edward of Warwick helpfully became progressively more insane as he aged until he was tricked into doing something treasonous and beheaded in 1499.
Henry's genius was always in persuading people that whatever his faults he was better than the alternatives. At one and the same time it made him a highly effective king and means in the verdict of posterity he has always suffered compared to his energetic and dynamic son and youngest granddaughter, who ruled very much more by their own charisma.
Henry founded a fairly short lived dynasty; Elizabeth constructed an enduring nation. Albeit rather frayed these days.
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.
That's rather shocking news. A very underrated band (the 'It's My Life' album is particularly good) - I could never quite understand why they didn't come anywhere close to matching the success of contemporaries such as Tears for Fears.
If a Deal/Remain referendum amendment passes, then May could ultimately win the meaningful vote by a massive number, because all those who voted for the referendum will back it, plus all those who wanted May's deal without a referendum.
How could a referendum possibly work unless it offered deal options actually agreed with Europe ? Anything else would result in even more of a mess than the first one left us with.
The problem with all these forecasts is that there are about a million other variables that also matter:
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
Not to mention external factors: recession in China, combined with active measures to discourage people from moving offshore, bad for London property...
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
FWIW the value of my flat (one bed, zone two) has declined by about 14-15% since the Brexit vote.
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.
That’s a big drop. Is it a new build?
Nope. I think those have held up better, thanks to Osborne's Help to buy only being eligible for new build homes. So BTL landlords aren't buying any more and first time buyers are buying new builds, hence the precipitous drop.
Comments
Although I wouldn’t put it past JC to sit there with his fingers in his ears going lalalalalala, it seems to me his position has been weakened significantly in the past week.
Speaking as a democrat, I'd actually be pretty happy with a "No deal" vs "May's deal" vs "Labour deal / BINO". However, either a "no deal vs remain" or "may's deal vs remain" only both look like massive stitch ups to me, because you will get enough people either saying "no deal is too terrifying, let's remain, even though I would have preferred to leave with May's deal" as well as your fair share of "May's deal is so bad we might as well remain, no deal would be better (as a few on here espouse).
In short, if there is going to be a second referendum, the real battle will be on what exactly ends up on the ballot paper. Because that will determine who wins the vote.
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1098752099926593537
I'm on at 260.
All I'm saying is that we were two consenting adults.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/1100138649688002560
Theresa's genius was always in persuading people that whatever her faults she was better than the alternatives. At one and the same time it made her a highly effective..." Ah, no the similarity has broken down at that point.
TM deal or remain has been my position for months
2018 was the first year since 2013 without a major electoral/referendum event in the UK, some years we had more than one.
Corbyn can back a vote with a deniable nod and wink to his leavers. Gets to say to Remainers he tried.
Leave MPs can tell their constituencies they stood up for their constituencies vote.
Corbyn can make out like he's listened to his critics.
Nothing is done about antisemitism. Again.
Isn't Rossi's just down the road from you ?
And don't forget Sheffield has a Pound Bakery
But still it could be a profitable trading bet.
There will be a few 'flavor of the fortnite' over the next year.
Hope that helps
Deal passed, but government falls, and Corbyn elected: my money would be on prices dropping quite significantly...
No deal, but government slashes stamp duty to near zero... or reintroduces mortgage interest tax relief...
Etc. etc. etc.
I do believe he wants/wanted a No Deal Brexit. However, since that risks splitting his party, and indeed since it now looks unlikely, the next best thing for him is to Remain.
If we did Remain it leaves the Tories looking divided and impotent, and perhaps looking even more extremist. May’s successor will surely be a Hard Brexiter who will have to promise to make Europhilia a capital crime or some such bollocks.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1100142082977660928
Or trade deal looks good, and China loosens its restrictions
Oil prices rise, and Russian and Gulf investors look to London to hide money away...
Or falling oil prices, and people start selling because they need the cash...
Come on, there's no contest. May has to face that the ERG outnumber the remainer ultras, and Corbyn has to face that the remainers outnumber his leave backers. Both act accordingly.
The spread of possibilities should be pretty large.
Which, to take a trip back in time, is why the Treasury's Leave effect forecasts were so reprehensible.
(But thanks anyway.)
Of course the Treasury has had rather a history of making its forecasts fit certain viewpoints.
Which is why the OBR was created - because the Treasury was deemed to be not sufficiently independent.
The reason why i think such internal political gaming is important here I see momentum driving this policy change as much as Emily and Keir.
I didn’t find any mention of it, but a current case, Better than Grass Ltd v Smart Grass (Europe) Limited, looks even more riveting!
1998 is the only year in British history with no by-elections or general elections.
I put most of that down to Osborne's changes in tax relief for buy to let - it's just nowhere near as profitable as it used to be.
At the end of Anchorman it was said that Brick Tamland went to work for the George W Bush administration.
In Vice, Steve Carrell ended up playing Donald Rumsfeld, so Anchorman was right.
I am guessing Seamus is not on board with this one.
When a big tree falls, the earth shakes, Lewisham and a Northern Irish by election didn't make the earth move.
So..... they want no-deal vs remain?
And then Jezza campaigns for the former.
As an aside, Maltese is a damn strange language.
Whatever the specificity of this new ploy, he's getting the headlines he wants.
Anything else would result in even more of a mess than the first one left us with.