politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tom Watson plans a new LAB MPs grouping and there’s little Mil
Comments
-
Agree, we’d need a clear change of direction to do it - with May replaced by someone like Gove, and with Crawford Falconer leading the negotiation. The clean break might still be the best option.DavidL said:
I personally think that if we have 21 more months of this nonsense and uncertainty we are likely to cause ourselves an entirely unnecessary recession. They just need to get on with it, now. Right now. Today.Sandpit said:
Indeed. And with both the UK and EU sides seemingly intent on eleventh-hour brinkmanship over a deal that could be acceptable to everyone, anything could still happen.DavidL said:
It's really not that complicated is it? The main purpose of no deal at this point seems to be to give people something else to be positively against. The more things you positively oppose and the more voraciously you do it the less time there is to discuss what you are positively for. And that seems to suit our political class just fine.Sandpit said:
How many times do they have to be told that no deal can’t be scrapped? It’s whats already been legislated for, and is the live “Plan A” in the absence of other *positive* action.Scott_P said:
It’s not enough to be in favour of the double negative no no deal, they have to be either in favour of a specific deal, or in favour of ignoring the people and revoking A50?
I think the idea of a 21-month extension to include discussion of trading arrangements is probably the best plan with the clock already well into the eleventh hour - but can also see the advantages of a few days of chaos that forces everyone back to the table to sort things out in good faith, in order to avoid a complete nightmare of disruption to trade over the summer.
What it comes down to for me, is the stated intention of the EU side to ‘punish’ the UK for leaving. That bad faith is making sensible discussion impossible. Our negotiators made the mistake early on of agreeing to their process, that started from the status quo and worked backwards, rather than starting from, say, Canada and working forwards. We’ve also suffered from the EU side being seen as united, and doing their negotiation in public, while in the UK there’s been a well-organised campaign by senior people who are completely opposed to what’s happening.0 -
If this means they will back the Kyle and Wilson amendment then they will get my vote back .
The YouGov polling has clearly shown that Labour voters have moved more towards Remain. The latest was wrong to leave 71 right to leave 19 . You simply can’t sustain a position that ignores that .
0 -
after about six weeks of canvassing its largely the only thing brought up on the doorstep....justin124 said:
Very unlikely - Brexit is not a key salient issue with most voters. Morover, if we have another referendum , voters can still vote to leave.dyedwoolie said:The north just went blue
0 -
Not really - would Corbyn have done this had they not left? They've spooked Labour to some degree, that's clear, has it been enough to spook Labour into doing the things the Tiggers wanted? Sure, what point will there be to the Tiggers now, it's not as though most MPs care about the anti-semitism stuff, but the numbers in the Commons are still such that they will have a role to play.Brom said:Got to laugh at TIGs, they've played this very badly.
0 -
Mr. Woolie, perhaps purple.0
-
I disagree entirely with that but in any case supporting the chance to overturn the will of 17.4 million can certainly be spun in a GEjustin124 said:
Very unlikely - Brexit is not a key salient issue with most voters. Morover, if we have another referendum , voters can still vote to leave.dyedwoolie said:The north just went blue
0 -
It never was, but it probably is now. Tories who think that the North will go blue really don't get it though. Parts of London are just as likely to go whatever colour the TIGgers choosejustin124 said:
Very unlikely - Brexit is not a key salient issue with most voters. Morover, if we have another referendum , voters can still vote to leave.dyedwoolie said:The north just went blue
0 -
Two thoughts:
1) Does anyone really think this pledge would have been made today if the TIG team hadn't broken free?
2) Is there actually a majority in the House of Commons for a second referendum anyway? It's not as though large numbers of Conservatives are yet supporting one and there will be some Labour dissidents even if the Labour party is whipping in favour of such an amendment.0 -
Almost certainly, and they're now even more likely to lose their seats. Unless of course they suddenly forget about the anti semitism and beg to come back.DougSeal said:
Really? If they had not done what they did would this have happened?Brom said:Got to laugh at TIGs, they've played this very badly.
0 -
It would not survive a 6 week election campaign. Other issues would override it as happened in 2017.Nigel_Foremain said:
It never was, but it probably is now. Tories who think that the North will go blue really don't get it though. Parts of London are just as likely to go whatever colour the TIGgers choosejustin124 said:
Very unlikely - Brexit is not a key salient issue with most voters. Morover, if we have another referendum , voters can still vote to leave.dyedwoolie said:The north just went blue
0 -
1) No.AlastairMeeks said:Two thoughts:
1) Does anyone really think this pledge would have been made today if the TIG team hadn't broken free?
2) Is there actually a majority in the House of Commons for a second referendum anyway? It's not as though large numbers of Conservatives are yet supporting one and there will be some Labour dissidents even if the Labour party is whipping in favour of such an amendment.
2) I think that there is. The remainer majority there are no longer ashamed of their dishonesty.0 -
^^^^^^^^^TheWhiteRabbit said:What do they want on the ballot paper?
THIS
The chance of Parliament agreeing on the format of a referendum, even having agreed on the principle of it, is about the same as them agreeing on a specific form of Brexit, having already agreed on the principle of it.0 -
I wonder if he'll try for May's deal versus go back and ask for the unicorn deal0
-
I hate to prick everybody's little bubble, but it's 32 days to Brexit. There is no way on this God's Earth you can organise a referendum in that time. An amendment for a referendum without a similar amendment for an extension is absolutely pointless.0
-
That, I thought, went without saying?viewcode said:I hate to prick everybody's little bubble, but it's 32 days to Brexit. There is no way on this God's Earth you can organise a referendum in that time. An amendment for a referendum without a similar amendment for an extension is absolutely pointless.
0 -
Praise be unto the ERG.
This doesn’t happen if it wasn’t for their stupidity.0 -
Almost certainly 'remain with unicorns' or some clueless stuff the people's vote have been calling for.DavidL said:
Should we remain in the EU? Select one:TheWhiteRabbit said:What do they want on the ballot paper?
Yes Definitely. obviously.0 -
Apparently not!AlastairMeeks said:
That, I thought, went without saying?viewcode said:I hate to prick everybody's little bubble, but it's 32 days to Brexit. There is no way on this God's Earth you can organise a referendum in that time. An amendment for a referendum without a similar amendment for an extension is absolutely pointless.
0 -
Na, usual nonsense. The only "punishing" that has happened is the divisive nature of many of those who vocally support Brexit. They want to crush those of a different view rather than reach out to them. If Brexit is stopped (which I think is unlikely and probably undesirable) it will be the likes of the ERG and their hate filled agenda that will have caused it.Sandpit said:
Agree, we’d need a clear change of direction to do it - with May replaced by someone like Gove, and with Crawford Falconer leading the negotiation. The clean break might still be the best option.DavidL said:
I personally think that if we have 21 more months of this nonsense and uncertainty we are likely to cause ourselves an entirely unnecessary recession. They just need to get on with it, now. Right now. Today.Sandpit said:
Indeed. And with both the UK and EU sides seemingly intent on eleventh-hour brinkmanship over a deal that could be acceptable to everyone, anything could still happen.DavidL said:
It's really not that complicated is it? The main purpose of no deal at this point seems to be to give people something else to be positively against. The more things you positively oppose and the more voraciously you do it the less time there is to discuss what you are positively for. And that seems to suit our political class just fine.Sandpit said:
How many times do they have to be told that no deal can’t be scrapped? It’s whats already been legislated for, and is the live “Plan A” in the absence of other *positive* action.Scott_P said:
It’s not enough to be in favour of the double negative no no deal, they have to be either in favour of a specific deal, or in favour of ignoring the people and revoking A50?
I think the idea of a 21-month extension to include discussion of trading arrangements is probably the best plan with the clock already well into the eleventh hour - but can also see the advantages of a few days of chaos that forces everyone back to the table to sort things out in good faith, in order to avoid a complete nightmare of disruption to trade over the summer.
What it comes down to for me, is the stated intention of the EU side to ‘punish’ the UK for leaving. That bad faith is making sensible discussion impossible. Our negotiators made the mistake early on of agreeing to their process, that started from the status quo and worked backwards, rather than starting from, say, Canada and working forwards. We’ve also suffered from the EU side being seen as united, and doing their negotiation in public, while in the UK there’s been a well-organised campaign by senior people who are completely opposed to what’s happening.0 -
Deduce away. If you called me a liar about anything else I would settle the matter with a charity bet; thank you for demonstrating that if you interbred a cockroach and a weasel, the progeny would probably be able to work out out that this is the one instance where I can't do that.Nigel_Foremain said:
Prat, look at the previous posts. I have no need to be a "fanboy" you numpty! I was asked by the poster why he had deduced he hadn't been there, based on an earlier quip. Similarly I would deduce that you did not vote to remain, but voted leave. All the posts I have seen from you suggest this to be the case. Feeling ashamed of your stupidity? It is good that you are a late convert to common sense. Well done.
Looking forward to some arsecrawling sycophancy towards my own university to balance out the Cambridge stuff. 38 colleges it says in Wikipedia.0 -
Brexit is finished . Labour is finished . Democracy is dead . The EU can’t believe their luck .0
-
People are sick to death of Brexit and will be very receptive to other issues being raised.notme2 said:
after about six weeks of canvassing its largely the only thing brought up on the doorstep....justin124 said:
Very unlikely - Brexit is not a key salient issue with most voters. Morover, if we have another referendum , voters can still vote to leave.dyedwoolie said:The north just went blue
0 -
This is exactly why he's done it now. Corbyn for once has played a blinder, he'll win back a lot of the millennials but he knows there is little actual chance of another vote.viewcode said:I hate to prick everybody's little bubble, but it's 32 days to Brexit. There is no way on this God's Earth you can organise a referendum in that time. An amendment for a referendum without a similar amendment for an extension is absolutely pointless.
0 -
1)Made today? No. At some point? Maybe. As Nico67 points out too many Labour members want remain to stay away from a position closer to remain forever.AlastairMeeks said:Two thoughts:
1) Does anyone really think this pledge would have been made today if the TIG team hadn't broken free?
2) Is there actually a majority in the House of Commons for a second referendum anyway? It's not as though large numbers of Conservatives are yet supporting one and there will be some Labour dissidents even if the Labour party is whipping in favour of such an amendment.
2)Yes, but it depends on what Corbyn is going to say the vote will be on and how the question will be framed. May has done her level best to undermine any confidence we could manage even with the deal if it were passed, we have Cabinet members openly talking about how they disagree with the PM, it seems very likely that enough Tories can overcome the few Labour rebels.0 -
Pathetic stuff!Ishmael_Z said:
Deduce away. If you called me a liar about anything else I would settle the matter with a charity bet; thank you for demonstrating that if you interbred a cockroach and a weasel, the progeny would probably be able to work out out that this is the one instance where I can't do that.Nigel_Foremain said:
Prat, look at the previous posts. I have no need to be a "fanboy" you numpty! I was asked by the poster why he had deduced he hadn't been there, based on an earlier quip. Similarly I would deduce that you did not vote to remain, but voted leave. All the posts I have seen from you suggest this to be the case. Feeling ashamed of your stupidity? It is good that you are a late convert to common sense. Well done.
Looking forward to some arsecrawling sycophancy towards my own university to balance out the Cambridge stuff. 38 colleges it says in Wikipedia.0 -
*shrug*TheScreamingEagles said:Praise be unto the ERG.
This doesn’t happen if it wasn’t for their stupidity.
Remaining would be better than May's deal purgatory.0 -
1) We've yet to see the fine print of this policy. Personally, I very much doubt it's as advertised.kjohnw said:Brexit is finished . Labour is finished . Democracy is dead . The EU can’t believe their luck .
2) I'm far from convinced that there is (yet) a majority in the House of Commons for a new referendum.
3) If there is a new referendum, I'm far from convinced that a Remain option would actually win. I think it would probably be very close.
Oh and:
4) A new referendum would be just another outcrop of democracy, not its death. The public's will was not pickled in aspic on 23 June 2016.0 -
No, it won't. He's lost credibility.dyedwoolie said:
No, it won't. He just lost the north and Midlandskle4 said:We will now see if Corbyn's gamble has worked - even though he has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to this point, will his and Labour's fortunes pick up now he has done it?
0 -
Fine. Just don't complain when we do remain. After all, we will have proof it is not as bad as people claim.Philip_Thompson said:
*shrug*TheScreamingEagles said:Praise be unto the ERG.
This doesn’t happen if it wasn’t for their stupidity.
Remaining would be better than May's deal purgatory.0 -
Huh!?Brom said:Got to laugh at TIGs, they've played this very badly.
They've achieved more in a week than most MPs do in years.
Because of them Corbyn has gone from stubbornly resisting a referendum to backing one.
Because of them Watson has gone from ignoring the whole antisemitism issue to being the leading champion against it.
Because of them Soubry is gone from the Tories.
Something for everyone there.0 -
Can’t see a second vote happening but I expect now the ERG to panic . As a Labour supporter I welcome this news but want to see the detail .0
-
On 1), doesn't this make Corbyn & co look weedily calculating and without principle? I mean, Lexit is a crappy principle but a principle nontheless.AlastairMeeks said:Two thoughts:
1) Does anyone really think this pledge would have been made today if the TIG team hadn't broken free?
2) Is there actually a majority in the House of Commons for a second referendum anyway? It's not as though large numbers of Conservatives are yet supporting one and there will be some Labour dissidents even if the Labour party is whipping in favour of such an amendment.0 -
Can't see anything on BBC about Labour's announcement?0
-
-
It was mentioned as a possibility on R4Nigel_Foremain said:Can't see anything on BBC about Labour's announcement?
0 -
No I will complain. Xenophobic Remainer May has been an utter disaster as PM, I opposed her before she was elected and nothing has changed my mind.kle4 said:
Fine. Just don't complain when we do remain. After all, we will have proof it is not as bad as people claim.Philip_Thompson said:
*shrug*TheScreamingEagles said:Praise be unto the ERG.
This doesn’t happen if it wasn’t for their stupidity.
Remaining would be better than May's deal purgatory.0 -
In normal circumstances, yes. But things have been so cray-cray for so long, the blisteringly bleeding obvious needs to be continually repeated because people have the memory of a brain damaged mayfly with amnesia. On acid. In space.AlastairMeeks said:
That, I thought, went without saying?viewcode said:I hate to prick everybody's little bubble, but it's 32 days to Brexit. There is no way on this God's Earth you can organise a referendum in that time. An amendment for a referendum without a similar amendment for an extension is absolutely pointless.
0 -
1) Perhaps that is so, but what it is advertised as will be enough to keep people on board, probably, so it serves it purpose. What, someone is going to try to quit claiming Corbyn promising a referendum is not good enough?AlastairMeeks said:
1) We've yet to see the fine print of this policy. Personally, I very much doubt it's as advertised.kjohnw said:Brexit is finished . Labour is finished . Democracy is dead . The EU can’t believe their luck .
2) I'm far from convinced that there is (yet) a majority in the House of Commons for a new referendum.
3) If there is a new referendum, I'm far from convinced that a Remain option would actually win. I think it would probably be very close.
Oh and:
4) A new referendum would be just another outcrop of democracy, not its death. The public's will was not pickled in aspic on 23 June 2016.
2) I'm very confident there is one, in theory. Granted, it is still not simple so there are still potential stumbling blocks.
3) Maybe, although without giving too much credit to the power of political leaders, given even now most of May's Cabinet can barely summon up enthusiasm to back her deal, the only people promoting it with any vigour are likely to be her and Rory Stewart, and a bunch of 'look, it's the best we got' kind of support.
4) Yes, that's true.0 -
I never claimed Remaining was bad though, I was a Remain supporter originally and switched late in the day - and always found it quite a close issue. But if we're going to Leave we should Leave properly - this half-baked, half-hearted Brexit where we keep the worst of the EU and lose any right to have a say in rules is utter madness.kle4 said:
Fine. Just don't complain when we do remain. After all, we will have proof it is not as bad as people claim.Philip_Thompson said:
*shrug*TheScreamingEagles said:Praise be unto the ERG.
This doesn’t happen if it wasn’t for their stupidity.
Remaining would be better than May's deal purgatory.0 -
Fair pointBrom said:
This is exactly why he's done it now. Corbyn for once has played a blinder, he'll win back a lot of the millennials but he knows there is little actual chance of another vote.viewcode said:I hate to prick everybody's little bubble, but it's 32 days to Brexit. There is no way on this God's Earth you can organise a referendum in that time. An amendment for a referendum without a similar amendment for an extension is absolutely pointless.
0 -
Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.0 -
I meant don't complain about remaining after we do. As you admit, you'd prefer it to the offered alternative. I don't see how one can credibly do more than grumble, you won't have been trapped or tricked, you'll have decided, after careful consideration, that remaining is not so bad compared to some options.Philip_Thompson said:
No I will complain. Xenophobic Remainer May has been an utter disaster as PM, I opposed her before she was elected and nothing has changed my mind.kle4 said:
Fine. Just don't complain when we do remain. After all, we will have proof it is not as bad as people claim.Philip_Thompson said:
*shrug*TheScreamingEagles said:Praise be unto the ERG.
This doesn’t happen if it wasn’t for their stupidity.
Remaining would be better than May's deal purgatory.0 -
Corbyn being insincere by offering a second referendum. Everyone knows he voted Leave.0
-
Don’t take my work for it, listen to people like the German senior industry minster in the European Parliament.Nigel_Foremain said:
Na, usual nonsense. The only "punishing" that has happened is the divisive nature of many of those who vocally support Brexit. They want to crush those of a different view rather than reach out to them. If Brexit is stopped (which I think is unlikely and probably undesirable) it will be the likes of the ERG and their hate filled agenda that will have caused it.Sandpit said:
Agree, we’d need a clear change of direction to do it - with May replaced by someone like Gove, and with Crawford Falconer leading the negotiation. The clean break might still be the best option.DavidL said:
I personally think that if we have 21 more months of this nonsense and uncertainty we are likely to cause ourselves an entirely unnecessary recession. They just need to get on with it, now. Right now. Today.Sandpit said:
Indeed. And with both the UK and EU sides seemingly intent on eleventh-hour brinkmanship over a deal that could be acceptable to everyone, anything could still happen.DavidL said:
It's really not that complicated is it? The main purpose of no deal at this point seems to be to give people something else to be positively against. The more things you positively oppose and the more voraciously you do it the less time there is to discuss what you are positively for. And that seems to suit our political class just fine.Sandpit said:
I think the idea of a 21-month extension to include discussion of trading arrangements is probably the best plan with the clock already well into the eleventh hour - but can also see the advantages of a few days of chaos that forces everyone back to the table to sort things out in good faith, in order to avoid a complete nightmare of disruption to trade over the summer.
What it comes down to for me, is the stated intention of the EU side to ‘punish’ the UK for leaving. That bad faith is making sensible discussion impossible. Our negotiators made the mistake early on of agreeing to their process, that started from the status quo and worked backwards, rather than starting from, say, Canada and working forwards. We’ve also suffered from the EU side being seen as united, and doing their negotiation in public, while in the UK there’s been a well-organised campaign by senior people who are completely opposed to what’s happening.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-senior-german-mep-eu-negotiators-punish-britain-hans-olaf-henkel-theresa-may-michel-a7848221.html0 -
However the ERG now have a stark choice. Either May's deal or a labour one...0
-
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?0 -
Breaking News: Labour Party adopts Labour Party policy.0
-
BBC only cover Labour AS allegationsNigel_Foremain said:Can't see anything on BBC about Labour's announcement?
0 -
And yet:Slackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
It seems to have had the desired effect.williamglenn said:0 -
Also I can't believe people haven't logically thought this through. If labour get to negotiate 'their' Brexit deal, then they will Campaining for LEAVE in the next referendum....
So this puts labour fully into the leave camp.0 -
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?0 -
He's pushed it a bit close, unnecessarily so and it may have cost him several MPs, but his general strategy of say as little as possible on Brexit, make an appearance of enacting the result but allow the remainers to take control of Labour policy at the death, may work very well.Brom said:
This is exactly why he's done it now. Corbyn for once has played a blinder, he'll win back a lot of the millennials but he knows there is little actual chance of another vote.viewcode said:I hate to prick everybody's little bubble, but it's 32 days to Brexit. There is no way on this God's Earth you can organise a referendum in that time. An amendment for a referendum without a similar amendment for an extension is absolutely pointless.
0 -
Mark Dickless is an AM? (Googles). Holy arse, so he is! Who was that bloke on here who complained that the English exported their shit to Wales?Scott_P said:0 -
-
I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.williamglenn said:
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?0 -
0
-
He would be silly to backtrack, to be sure. His remain backers love it because they are sure they will win a second vote, and leavers can say that the intention is still to leave. He'll make the campaign (if there ever is one) a free one, it's genius.williamglenn said:
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?0 -
Lol he even manages to make things worse saving his party0
-
-
Not sure the ERG are that smart....SeanT said:
I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.williamglenn said:
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
0 -
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
I suspect what Corbyn has just done will be enough to ensure Brexit voters believe he is anti-Brexit and Remain voters believe he is anti-Remain.0 -
Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .0
-
If they didn't know that before I don't know why this would make them snap awake - he may have dragged his feet endlessly on this, but eventually going for a referendum was already Labour policy.SeanT said:
I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.williamglenn said:
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
The problem remains that the ERG and more will require something changed in the deal to justify why they've changed position, and they've set the bar impossibly high on that.0 -
I agree with that. Half a loaf is better than noneSeanT said:
I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.williamglenn said:
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?0 -
At this stage, I think that a vote on a 2nd referendum would be lost. More Labour MP's would vote against than Conservatives in favour.kle4 said:
1) Perhaps that is so, but what it is advertised as will be enough to keep people on board, probably, so it serves it purpose. What, someone is going to try to quit claiming Corbyn promising a referendum is not good enough?AlastairMeeks said:
1) We've yet to see the fine print of this policy. Personally, I very much doubt it's as advertised.kjohnw said:Brexit is finished . Labour is finished . Democracy is dead . The EU can’t believe their luck .
2) I'm far from convinced that there is (yet) a majority in the House of Commons for a new referendum.
3) If there is a new referendum, I'm far from convinced that a Remain option would actually win. I think it would probably be very close.
Oh and:
4) A new referendum would be just another outcrop of democracy, not its death. The public's will was not pickled in aspic on 23 June 2016.
2) I'm very confident there is one, in theory. Granted, it is still not simple so there are still potential stumbling blocks.
3) Maybe, although without giving too much credit to the power of political leaders, given even now most of May's Cabinet can barely summon up enthusiasm to back her deal, the only people promoting it with any vigour are likely to be her and Rory Stewart, and a bunch of 'look, it's the best we got' kind of support.
4) Yes, that's true.0 -
Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.
They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.
0 -
Utter panic from Corbyn - he's basically Sarri without the payoff.
0 -
What more is there for them to achieve? Getting a vote is literally their only policy other than not having Corbyn be PM. If there is a majority for a second vote, it doesn't matter if there are more defections or not.Scott_P said:0 -
Some have accused me of being ERG because I vehemently oppose the backstop. I've never respected the ERG but if they do as you suggest (which wouldn't surprise me) I'd lose all respect if I had any. I'm not opposing the backstop because I want to play silly buggers, or want no deal or whatever - I oppose it as I view it as utterly undemocratic and contemptible. I'd rather any other option (no deal or remain) than this deal.SeanT said:
I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.williamglenn said:
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
If they've been so against it but would rather it to remain then the way they have behaved is absurd.0 -
Chagos Islands story here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47358602
I liked this bit:
"At the heart of it, the right of all people to self-determination as a basic human right, which the UK violated when dismembering its former colony."
I'm reasonably sure the UN wants 'mediation' over the Falklands, rather than believing in the rights of those islanders to determine their own destiny by remaining under the British flag.
The UN's a nice idea, but objective or fair-minded it is not. Still remember them bleating over human rights when the Dale Farm occupants, who had squatted there illegally for a decade, were finally turfed out.0 -
So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to saynico67 said:Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .
'This deals crap, lets not leave?'
errrr ok?
0 -
Unlike Cameron, Corbyn may remember just how Labour squared that one last time. Harold Wilson kept his cards so close to his chest we still don't know which side he supported.Slackbladder said:Also I can't believe people haven't logically thought this through. If labour get to negotiate 'their' Brexit deal, then they will Campaining for LEAVE in the next referendum....
So this puts labour fully into the leave camp.
In the campaign Corbyn will remain serenely above the debate, saying nothing, waiting patiently for the instructions from the voters. (Actually, not that different to what he did in the last one.)0 -
Not if you're objecting to the half a loaf as you think that half a loaf is poisonous!MikeSmithson said:
I agree with that. Half a loaf is better than noneSeanT said:
I reckon this means May's deal passes, as the ultra-Leavers realise it is probably the only Brexit they will get.williamglenn said:
If he tries to backtrack it could finish him.SeanT said:
lolSlackbladder said:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
RIGHT SO - there is some overexcitement going on with the Labour announcement. Understand party does NOT mean they are going to back all efforts for 2nd referendum. ie probably not this week. the frontbench effort is into their own amendment on their own Brexit deal
As you were effectively...
And remember any referendum is on a labour backed deal for leaving....so presumably labour would officially campaign to then leave??
This solves nothing.
So Corbyn has given the impression of maybe supporting a vote while not actually doing that, really? i.e. Same as before?
No loaf is better than a bad loaf.0 -
-
But happier.SeanT said:Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.
They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.0 -
And the initial reaction seems to be that it will work. Go figure.TGOHF said:0 -
He was #1 on the UKIP list, that’s what happens with closed list PR...viewcode said:
Mark Dickless is an AM? (Googles). Holy arse, so he is! Who was that bloke on here who complained that the English exported their shit to Wales?Scott_P said:
Even funnier is that he can then defect and not lose his seat.0 -
Looks like the devil is in the detailTGOHF said:0 -
Well if that's what it takes to bury Brexit, so be it.Slackbladder said:
So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to saynico67 said:Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .
'This deals crap, lets not leave?'
errrr ok?0 -
No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .Slackbladder said:
So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to saynico67 said:Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .
'This deals crap, lets not leave?'
errrr ok?0 -
Either this happens or Statmer resigns, I guess ...
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/11000908666461102100 -
BBC
"Labour are not yet making clear what their proposed referendum would be on."
Titter.0 -
-
If we go by the rule that was used to judge reaction last week after the rise of the Tiggers, 'who seems scared?', who do we think is looking most panicked by this move?0
-
You think that's going to work? Remember labour would be charge of the negotiation therefore they would support it....Recidivist said:
Unlike Cameron, Corbyn may remember just how Labour squared that one last time. Harold Wilson kept his cards so close to his chest we still don't know which side he supported.Slackbladder said:Also I can't believe people haven't logically thought this through. If labour get to negotiate 'their' Brexit deal, then they will Campaining for LEAVE in the next referendum....
So this puts labour fully into the leave camp.
In the campaign Corbyn will remain serenely above the debate, saying nothing, waiting patiently for the instructions from the voters. (Actually, not that different to what he did in the last one.)
If logic works, but in the magic world of magic grandpa, who knows?
0 -
The elephant is in fact more like a tapir.Sandpit said:With the discussion of student loads and graduate taxes, one of the benefits of the current system that any change needs to take into account is that increasing numbers of people are choosing to spend time living abroad and out of the UK income tax system.
The real elephant in the room is EU students who disappear the day they graduate, with a ‘loan’ that can’t be collected in any conventional sense.
A messy ‘half way house’ between government and priveate funding just doesn’t work in practice, but the problems are decades down the line.
Tertiary education is one of few areas where the USA have a very good model, with community colleges, state universities and the Ivy League, with different funding models across all three.
More UK students move abroad after graduating than EU students, and the UK students have bigger loans (they are entitled to maintenance loans, where EU students are not).0 -
With what on the other side?? OH wait LABOURS DEALnico67 said:
No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .Slackbladder said:
So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to saynico67 said:Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .
'This deals crap, lets not leave?'
errrr ok?0 -
Recidivist said:
But happier.SeanT said:Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.
They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.
There isn't going to be a 2nd vote as a result of this Labour move. It's a feint by Corbyn, and it will be designed not to pass the Commons in timekle4 said:
I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.SeanT said:Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.
They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.
0 -
They’re no more certain then they were in 2016.kle4 said:
I think Remain will win, but it's pretty crazy how certain some are about it.SeanT said:Twitter is full of hardcore Remainers celebrating madly, like we're going to get a second vote next week and Remain will OBVIOUSLY win.
They are as stupid as the ultra-Leavers.
0 -
Post plp comments will be instructive0
-
I think more detail is required before remainers can celebrate a referendumnico67 said:
No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .Slackbladder said:
So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to saynico67 said:Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .
'This deals crap, lets not leave?'
errrr ok?
I am very cautious about this as Corbyn will lose the north leave seats0 -
Do you want NO DEAL or Labour's APPLE PIE deal ?Slackbladder said:
With what on the other side?? OH wait LABOURS DEALnico67 said:
No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .Slackbladder said:
So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to saynico67 said:Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .
'This deals crap, lets not leave?'
errrr ok?
It's a people's vote.0 -
Corbynkle4 said:If we go by the rule that was used to judge reaction last week after the rise of the Tiggers, 'who seems scared?', who do we think is looking most panicked by this move?
0 -
But presumably it's Labours Deal or Remain.TGOHF said:
Do you want NO DEAL or Labour's APPLE PIE deal ?Slackbladder said:
With what on the other side?? OH wait LABOURS DEALnico67 said:
No . Labour will put forward their CU plan in the Commons . If that gets voted down then they’ll go for a People’s vote with Remain on the ballot .Slackbladder said:
So Keir Starmers going to draft and agree a deal at which at the end of it he's going to saynico67 said:Keir Starmer has issued a release. It will honour the conference motion which had remain on the ballot .
'This deals crap, lets not leave?'
errrr ok?
It's a people's vote.
so labour is now pro-Brexit?0 -
Because of them there will be more Corbyn supporting Lab MPs as he walks intp number 10 whilst they look for new jobs having been rejected by their Constituents.Philip_Thompson said:
Huh!?Brom said:Got to laugh at TIGs, they've played this very badly.
They've achieved more in a week than most MPs do in years.
Because of them Corbyn has gone from stubbornly resisting a referendum to backing one.
Because of them Watson has gone from ignoring the whole antisemitism issue to being the leading champion against it.
Because of them Soubry is gone from the Tories.
Something for everyone there.0
