politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn
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Which is why TM's deal will get through as the only alternative to no deal. Until the 59th minute of the 11th hour it's all positioning and talk. Enough MPs will not want to be associated with voting in effect for no deal.Sandpit said:
LOL. They still seem wedded to this notion that they can keep voting against what they don't want to happen, without replacing it with something substantive.Scott_P said:
If we are to avoid leaving with no deal, they Parliament needs either to ratify a deal or pass whatever is required to revoke the A50 notification. If they can't do either, then we leave with no deal on 29th March.
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Rydoethur said:
Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?_Anazina_ said:
Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
On the back of your conflating Irish people with paedophilic priests yesterday, you compare three women to witches.TGOHF said:Looks like Allen, Woollaston and the Gin princess will all get “selected” by Bercow for PMQs then.
Hubble , bubble....0 -
Applying reliable long-standing rules of thumb, Peston is always wrong, and Roger is always wrong. So if Roger is wrong, Peston must be right, but Peston is wrong, which makes Roger right, but Roger is always wrong, so Peston is right, but that's wrong...Roger said:0 -
I thought it was May who still had the right at first bite of the cherry to form a Government.dyedwoolie said:
'Send for Corbyn' - he has 15 days too get a QS through if not its election time. I'm not sure who is PM I this circumstance?Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
Not before Brexit basically0 -
Theuniondivvie said:
Yep.SquareRoot said:
Amazing how unfunny he becomes when he's attacking one's own party.
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It would be funny if they finished up with Corbyn as PM, after voting out the Tories.kle4 said:
It will be an interesting moment. The current tiggers seem clear that their anti Tory credentials remain as high as ever. Can they work with the incomes on more than brexit?not_on_fire said:
If their numbers continue to grow they will be forced to appoint a leader to keep things manageable.Nemtynakht said:
It isn’t a party thoughHYUFD said:Good Morning Britain reporting that 4 Tory MPs will leave the party today and defect to join the 8 former Labour MPs in the new Independent Group. If true it will mean the Group already has as many MPs as the LDs by the end of the day and just needs one more MP to defect to become the third biggest party in England and Wales by Commons representation within a week
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Joan Ryan had a vote of no confidence passed in her by her constituency party recently.Endillion said:Excellent thread, and a good point on Ann Coffey. So far as I can tell, she is the only one of the Labour MPs to quit so far to have definitely jumped without being pushed (deselection threats, votes of no confidence etc). Possibly Joan Ryan is the second.
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The choice is clear for Labour MPs. Stay with Corbyn or leave the partyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pioneers, stay and fight?
How's that worked so far?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/corbyn-labour-party-broad-church0 -
All future decisions by ANY party or government to meet the WWJD what would Jeremy do testrottenborough said:
I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.williamglenn said:
Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.0 -
The LDs only have 11 official MPs at the moment, so if 4 defect today that would make them a larger grouping. I wonder if that means they would get preference over the LDs at PMQs?HYUFD said:
It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONCScott_P said:0 -
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).0 -
What an excellent article, Alastair. Thank-you.0
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It was only Mark Reckless that earned that sobriquet, I was fine with Carswell defecting.CD13 said:Mr Flashman,
"I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors."
Mr Eagles with his pig-dog traitor accusations?
It was the timing of the Reckless defection that made me want to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
Even Tory Leavers think Reckless is a c**t because of the timing of the defection.0 -
My sources suggest it is Peter Bone.El_Capitano said:
Sandbach and Grieve would be possible. TSE suggested Phillip Lee.Sandpit said:
Peston is the only person talking about a quartet when everyone else only has three names in the hat. So who's the fourth one?CarlottaVance said:
Or maybe Theresa May has had enough of this s—t and is jumping ship...0 -
Indeed.dyedwoolie said:
All future decisions by ANY party or government to meet the WWJD what would Jeremy do testrottenborough said:
I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.williamglenn said:
Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.
Although might throw up some issues as he is a complete hypocrite, who actively, repeatedly, rebelled and undermined his own elected leaders over the years.0 -
It’s like we’ve gone through the looking glass when Corbyn is demanding loyalty from his MPs and that all MPs should agree with everything in last manifesto.
One question I have - obviously the TIG have a plan for rolling , well let’s call them defections in absence of any other word, but what do we think the total number from each party will be. Will there be any from other parties?0 -
She has a confidence and supply deal with the DUP though for the moment, she will not with the 4 defecting Tory MPsnot_on_fire said:HYUFD said:
That will certainly be likely.not_on_fire said:
The defection of 4 Tory MPs also means May lacks an official majority even with the DUP as you need 326 MPs and she will only have 324. However she will still have a working majority as long as Sinn Fein do not take their seats
Well technically May already lacks a majority - the government is not a coalition.HYUFD said:
That will certainly be likely.not_on_fire said:
The defection of 4 Tory MPs also means May lacks an official majority even with the DUP as you need 326 MPs and she will only have 324. However she will still have a working majority as long as Sinn Fein do not take their seats0 -
Remember a VONC does not automatically mean a GE will happen.bigjohnowls said:0 -
Jonathan - agreed!
It would be great theatre if this trio/quartet actually did cross the floor.0 -
If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?0
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Not now no but they already have significant clout on Commons votes given the hung parliament which was not the case for the SDP in 1981 given Thatcher had a comfortable majority of over 40bigjohnowls said:0 -
Abso - bloody - lutely.Richard_Tyndall said:
It would be much better for the Government to step up and take responsibility for one if it's citizens and ensure there is a proper judicial solution to the issue. Either she had broken the law in which case she should be punished or she has not in which case we should not be allowing a politician to punish her without due procedure.ydoethur said:
Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?_Anazina_ said:
Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
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In September 2018.RochdalePioneers said:
It IS a loony bin and increasingly so. Those of us who aren't suffering the black sleep of the Kali Ma have two choices - stay and fight, or flounce off and enable the Tories.Scott_P said:
The insanity of a Labour committee, a LABOUR committee hiring taxis to scuttle round a city and judge fit the membership of Twatton is all the proof you need as to how mad things are0 -
That is what I thought. And as we saw during the 2010 post election negotiations it was the incumbent Government who retained control of power. Although of course Darling being an honourable man refused to do anything that would bind an incoming Government during the Greek crisis.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).0 -
True thanks to Lloyd's becoming an independent, Bercow could well allow Umunna to take precedence over Cable if they formally become a new partyAndyJS said:
The LDs only have 11 official MPs at the moment, so if 4 defect today that would make them a larger grouping. I wonder if that means they would get preference over the LDs at PMQs?HYUFD said:
It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONCScott_P said:0 -
Corbyn's main motive will be vengeance.rottenborough said:
I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.williamglenn said:
Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.0 -
To Farage's new Brexit Party_Anazina_ said:
My sources suggest it is Peter Bone.El_Capitano said:
Sandbach and Grieve would be possible. TSE suggested Phillip Lee.Sandpit said:
Peston is the only person talking about a quartet when everyone else only has three names in the hat. So who's the fourth one?CarlottaVance said:
Or maybe Theresa May has had enough of this s—t and is jumping ship...0 -
But it becomes highly likely if they won't back someone else and why would they?not_on_fire said:
Remember a VONC does not automatically mean a GE will happen.bigjohnowls said:
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Also the letter as quoted in the media doesn't even bother to ask the mother to pass on the reasons for the order, which is part of the information that is meant to be given in advance to the person.Chris said:Looking at the Act, some of the press coverage is a bit muddled. The Guardian thinks citizenship can be removed on the basis of “reasonable grounds for believing that the person is able, under the law of a country or territory outside the United Kingdom, to become a national of such a country or territory”. But that clearly applies only to someone who is naturalised British, not someone British-born. She has to have dual nationality already (as someone is quoted as saying elsewhere in the same article).
Also the Act stipulates that the person should be given written notice before the order is made. Apparently all that has been done here is that her mother was written to and asked to pass the information on.0 -
I assume they would need to associate in some formal way still.AndyJS said:
The LDs only have 11 official MPs at the moment, so if 4 defect today that would make them a larger grouping. I wonder if that means they would get preference over the LDs at PMQs?HYUFD said:
It actually means the new Independent Group will have 12 MPs ie more than the DUP and matching the LDs potentially changing the arithmetic on a VONCScott_P said:0 -
It's actually largely contained and yesterday's news.Pulpstar said:
Obviously well placed to deal with Islamic terrorists though at either home or PM. The big security threat of our generation.Casino_Royale said:
State action by Russia and China is currently the bigger security threat.0 -
That is my view. I feel deeply uncomfortable that the government reserves the right to strip me of my citizenship. In general I think it is wrong for a government minister to have that power.kle4 said:People keep essentially arguing it's wrong for him to have the power at all. I can get down with that, I don't think it's great either and it seems like a very broad piece of legislation.
In the specifics of this case, I think Javid is wrong to argue that stripping this individual of her British citizenship would not leave her stateless on the basis that she would be entitled to Bangladeshi citizenship due to her parents being born there. She does not yet possess that citizenship, and so it would make an assumption about the action of a foreign state that is unwarranted. I would expect the tribunal to find against the Home Office in this case.
I do not think that Javid expects this to be successful, but it is rather like the Brexit referendum in that he believes he can grandstand on it with no penalty because the grown-ups in the tribunal will find against him (just as Cameron expected the British public would vote Remain and save him). So we have another opportunity for the tabloids to bash judges because a politician wanted to posture.
There are too many instances in cases connected to the Home Office and the DWP where the appeals process is picking up far too much of the burden in reaching correct judgements, as both departments have an established culture of pushing their luck as far as possible in the hopes that people will not have the means, or determination, to appeal.
Unfortunately the polling is clear that the public as a whole cannot get enough of punishing people who are reliant on social security, or who are regarded as not one of us.
One of my hopes with Corbyn was that he would have the courage to take a stand on these issues and argue for something different, but it's another way in which he has been a disappointment.
Brexit in just over 902 hours.0 -
There is always a PM is the basic rule I think. May remains PM until someone else has kissed the Queen (or Corbyn's case had one of his aide's shake her hand wearing gloves).Richard_Tyndall said:
That is what I thought. And as we saw during the 2010 post election negotiations it was the incumbent Government who retained control of power. Although of course Darling being an honourable man refused to do anything that would bind an incoming Government during the Greek crisis.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).
If May out because she has literally walked out of the door and fled to Snowdon, then Cabinet picks a PM I believe. Constitution vague on this, but should probably be the Home Sec. He would then kiss the Queen and run her government until GE day.
Happy to be corrected.
And I suspect no one really knows exactly what would happen except the Cabinet Sec and the Queen's secretary.0 -
There has been due procedure. (Pending an appeal). People think it inadequate or morally wrong but that's not the same as it not being there and we cannot pretend otherwise.TOPPING said:
Abso - bloody - lutely.Richard_Tyndall said:
It would be much better for the Government to step up and take responsibility for one if it's citizens and ensure there is a proper judicial solution to the issue. Either she had broken the law in which case she should be punished or she has not in which case we should not be allowing a politician to punish her without due procedure.ydoethur said:
Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?_Anazina_ said:
Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
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Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
Yep!TheScreamingEagles said:
It was only Mark Reckless that earned that sobriquet, I was fine with Carswell defecting.CD13 said:Mr Flashman,
"I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors."
Mr Eagles with his pig-dog traitor accusations?
It was the timing of the Reckless defection that made me want to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
Even Tory Leavers think Reckless is a c**t because of the timing of the defection.
Carswell was an honourable man who decided to leave the party over a difference of policy. I'll probably say the same about Sarah Woolaston later. It happens from time to time and we all move on.
Reckless though, he was a f*****g s****y c**t who deliberately timed his defection to cause maximum chaos and damage to the party in the week of their conference.0 -
It does seem like an appeal could be successful in this case.Chris said:
Also the letter as quoted in the media doesn't even bother to ask the mother to pass on the reasons for the order, which is part of the information that is meant to be given in advance to the person.Chris said:Looking at the Act, some of the press coverage is a bit muddled. The Guardian thinks citizenship can be removed on the basis of “reasonable grounds for believing that the person is able, under the law of a country or territory outside the United Kingdom, to become a national of such a country or territory”. But that clearly applies only to someone who is naturalised British, not someone British-born. She has to have dual nationality already (as someone is quoted as saying elsewhere in the same article).
Also the Act stipulates that the person should be given written notice before the order is made. Apparently all that has been done here is that her mother was written to and asked to pass the information on.0 -
Ha ha. We begin to see where Seamus is going with this one...kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
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Ooooh no for me it would be cringeworthy in a student politics way. Look at us! Look at us crossing the floor. Asd in high fives with the Tiggers and you're in barf town_Anazina_ said:Jonathan - agreed!
It would be great theatre if this trio/quartet actually did cross the floor.
Having said that if they cross the floor doing the Maybot I'm game0 -
And can no one see the parallel between Javid's actions in revoking British citizenship? What on god'srottenborough said:
I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.williamglenn said:
Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.greenred earth would Lab do with that power?0 -
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
Disagree with the column and the sentiment behind it. I would take Corbyn over May without hesitation - remember that the British polity has checks and balances against more "interesting" policy ideas.IanB2 said:
The choice is clear for Labour MPs. Stay with Corbyn or leave the partyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pioneers, stay and fight?
How's that worked so far?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/corbyn-labour-party-broad-church
As for how has staying and fighting worked so far - locally pretty well. My CLP is mainly calm and sane, with the relatively small number of headbangers contained. I had two formal complaints lodged against me by crazies which we had managed into the round file without any problems.
The alternative to staying is that we let 119 years of progress get taken over by this malignancy. This isn't about just my personal opinions its about a movement that will still be here long after Corbynism has gone. Hatton and his ilk have been exposed and expelled before, they can and will be again.0 -
Easter is on the April 19-22nd so it would be on the April 11th.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).
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Yep that all seens to be as i understood it - well not exactly as i had no idea what happened if May took a long walk off a short cliff.rottenborough said:
There is always a PM is the basic rule I think. May remains PM until someone else has kissed the Queen (or Corbyn's case had one of his aide's shake her hand wearing gloves).Richard_Tyndall said:
That is what I thought. And as we saw during the 2010 post election negotiations it was the incumbent Government who retained control of power. Although of course Darling being an honourable man refused to do anything that would bind an incoming Government during the Greek crisis.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).
If May out because she has literally walked out of the door and fled to Snowdon, then Cabinet picks a PM I believe. Constitution vague on this, but should probably be the Home Sec. He would then kiss the Queen and run her government until GE day.
Happy to be corrected.
And I suspect no one really knows exactly what would happen except the Cabinet Sec and the Queen's secretary.
But as Sandpit pointed out earlier, this would seem to indicate that using a VoNC as a means of stopping Brexit is probably a non starter.0 -
With all due respect, the Labour Party does not have a monopopy on ‘progress’. 119 years of progress can continue under other banners.RochdalePioneers said:
Disagree with the column and the sentiment behind it. I would take Corbyn over May without hesitation - remember that the British polity has checks and balances against more "interesting" policy ideas.IanB2 said:
The choice is clear for Labour MPs. Stay with Corbyn or leave the partyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pioneers, stay and fight?
How's that worked so far?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/corbyn-labour-party-broad-church
As for how has staying and fighting worked so far - locally pretty well. My CLP is mainly calm and sane, with the relatively small number of headbangers contained. I had two formal complaints lodged against me by crazies which we had managed into the round file without any problems.
The alternative to staying is that we let 119 years of progress get taken over by this malignancy. This isn't about just my personal opinions its about a movement that will still be here long after Corbynism has gone. Hatton and his ilk have been exposed and expelled before, they can and will be again.0 -
Funny how Reckless and Neil Hamilton have both got themselves elected to the Welsh Assembly via the list. Perhaps a good argument against that particular system.Sandpit said:
Yep!TheScreamingEagles said:
It was only Mark Reckless that earned that sobriquet, I was fine with Carswell defecting.CD13 said:Mr Flashman,
"I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors."
Mr Eagles with his pig-dog traitor accusations?
It was the timing of the Reckless defection that made me want to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
Even Tory Leavers think Reckless is a c**t because of the timing of the defection.
Carswell was an honourable man who decided to leave the party over a difference of policy. I'll probably say the same about Sarah Woolaston later. It happens from time to time and we all move on.
Reckless though, he was a f*****g s****y c**t who deliberately timed his defection to cause maximum chaos and damage to the party in the week of their conference.0 -
First past the post is going to become even more dysfunctional and the composition of the House of Commons is going to reflect public opinion even less than it does now. Anyone genuinely worried about democracy should think long and hard about that.0
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Ftpt
The BBC either purchase shows from independents, and as a result aren't going to be purchasing any geographic rights beyond the UK, or they are going to make them themselves and would lose massive commercial value when selling foreign rights for the shows if they carved out an exception.SeanT said:
Agreed. It's mad there isn't some way of paying to access the iPlayer overseas: like you, I would gladly fork out. I've ended up illegally streaming some BBC TV - and thus benefiting pirates - when I would much rather take the legal route.rpjs said:
If they’d open up the iPlayer to overseas viewers I’d gladly pay the cost of the licence fee for access.SeanT said:
Netflix and amazon have all the money, so they make the best shows. It's not quantum thermophysics. TV drama is still good, REALLY good, you just have to pay for it in a different way.FrancisUrquhart said:
That was sort of my point...Nought on telly, the golden age of telly it was all hbo shows, now all the good shows are Netflix.SeanT said:
Netflix and chill. Tons on Netflix. Narcos is brilliant.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of tv...is it just me or is there nothing decent on hbo etc? True detective season 3 started well (no spoilers) but is there anything else? And all the major us networks, the original stuff they have tried has been really rubbish over the past 2 years or terrible remakes like magnum pi.
If I was hard up, and I had to choose between paying my BBC TV licence, or my Netflix sub, I reckon I would go for Netflix. That sums up the horrible fate awaiting the BBC, if it doesn't swiftly find a new way of making money.
When you pay a British TV licence there should be some kind of supplementary fee, with a password, enabling you to access it all abroad. Can it be that difficult?
The BBC lacks commercial ingenuity. They are lazy.
Night night.
It's not lazy, it is basic commercial reality.0 -
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
Right, any defectors please hold off until my lunch break please.
0 -
What’s your suggestion? PR?SouthamObserver said:First past the post is going to become even more dysfunctional and the composition of the House of Commons is going to reflect public opinion even less than it does now. Anyone genuinely worried about democracy should think long and hard about that.
0 -
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule0 -
No.rottenborough said:
There is always a PM is the basic rule I think. May remains PM until someone else has kissed the Queen (or Corbyn's case had one of his aide's shake her hand wearing gloves).Richard_Tyndall said:
That is what I thought. And as we saw during the 2010 post election negotiations it was the incumbent Government who retained control of power. Although of course Darling being an honourable man refused to do anything that would bind an incoming Government during the Greek crisis.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).
If May out because she has literally walked out of the door and fled to Snowdon, then Cabinet picks a PM I believe. Constitution vague on this, but should probably be the Home Sec. He would then kiss the Queen and run her government until GE day.
Happy to be corrected.
And I suspect no one really knows exactly what would happen except the Cabinet Sec and the Queen's secretary.
There is always a sovereign. There does not have to be a PM. If there is no PM, control of the executive reverts to the Sovereign who would probably still delegate that power to the Secretaries of State acting severally and jointly pending an interim replacement.
If the sitting PM dies or is incapacitated, the Crown can take advice from senior figures on who to appoint instead. Last time it happened was in 1923, when in Bonar Law's absence Lord Salisbury as a generally respected long serving Minister, J. C. C. Davidson as Bonar Law's private secretary and Arthur Balfour as a former Prime Minister were consulted. They went two for one for Baldwin over Curzon and the King appointed Baldwin.
If May fled to Snowden the likely parallel would be for the Queen to consult John Major, William Hague and Phillip Hammond on who to appoint interim PM, and it would probably be one of Gauke or Lidington.
A steam engine beckons. Have a good morning.0 -
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
What did they do with it the last time? Probably the same as that unless they commit to remove itTOPPING said:
And can no one see the parallel between Javid's actions in revoking British citizenship? What on god'srottenborough said:
I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.williamglenn said:
Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.greenred earth would Lab do with that power?0 -
But staying is enabling the Tories, too. Corbyn is putting up no opposition to May’s Brexit. I can and do respect those like you who have chosen to stay and fight, but every member that permits the Corbynites to count them in support of their claim of being “the biggest left-wing party in Europe” is enabling the Tories at least as much as TIG is.RochdalePioneers said:
It IS a loony bin and increasingly so. Those of us who aren't suffering the black sleep of the Kali Ma have two choices - stay and fight, or flounce off and enable the Tories.Scott_P said:0 -
Why are you so rattled?bigjohnowls said:
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule0 -
Mobs and Internet Trolls is more precise.bigjohnowls said:
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule0 -
I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.
Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.
0 -
Parties threatened with defections need to mix carrots and sticks. I don't think that the suggestion of easier recall is a very effective stick, though, since it could only be done in a future Parliament, and as pointed out downthreead it'd be unfair if someone was thrown out of a party invoulntarily.
O/T: Harris and other less-known hopefuls seem to be fading when their launch moment passes. Sanders rising even before he announced:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
My liberal Democrat US contacts are essentially saying "We will look at others but probably go for Sanders in the end". Warren is toast IMO for that reason. The main bit of the puzzle missing is Biden's decision and where his votes go if he decides against.0 -
To continue the Brexit analogy, the HS might win the case.OblitusSumMe said:
That is my view. I feel deeply uncomfortable that the government reserves the right to strip me of my citizenship. In general I think it is wrong for a government minister to have that power.kle4 said:People keep essentially arguing it's wrong for him to have the power at all. I can get down with that, I don't think it's great either and it seems like a very broad piece of legislation.
In the specifics of this case, I think Javid is wrong to argue that stripping this individual of her British citizenship would not leave her stateless on the basis that she would be entitled to Bangladeshi citizenship due to her parents being born there. She does not yet possess that citizenship, and so it would make an assumption about the action of a foreign state that is unwarranted. I would expect the tribunal to find against the Home Office in this case.
I do not think that Javid expects this to be successful, but it is rather like the Brexit referendum in that he believes he can grandstand on it with no penalty because the grown-ups in the tribunal will find against him (just as Cameron expected the British public would vote Remain and save him). So we have another opportunity for the tabloids to bash judges because a politician wanted to posture.
There are too many instances in cases connected to the Home Office and the DWP where the appeals process is picking up far too much of the burden in reaching correct judgements, as both departments have an established culture of pushing their luck as far as possible in the hopes that people will not have the means, or determination, to appeal.
Unfortunately the polling is clear that the public as a whole cannot get enough of punishing people who are reliant on social security, or who are regarded as not one of us.
One of my hopes with Corbyn was that he would have the courage to take a stand on these issues and argue for something different, but it's another way in which he has been a disappointment.
Brexit in just over 902 hours.
I've no issue with citizenship being revoked - provided due process is followed.0 -
Thoughtful header from Alastair. I wonder whether these seven, and any others who follow, will do Labour the service of speeding up a realisation that JC is unelectable.
He's been internally untouchable* since overcoming the VONC, and those 'carping from the backbenches' have been dismissed as out of touch. This has been the settled position while the polling numbers, although suggesting defeat, have been reasonable at the cost of the LibDems. But I strongly suspect the the (reinforced steel) ceiling of Corbyn's support has long since been reached, and bobbing along in the mid-30s wouldn't be enough for power.
It seems to me likely that, even at modest levels of defection, TIG will shave a few points off Labour's poll rating, and start to put proper clear water between the Tories and them. I also wonder (somewhat counter-intuitively) whether they might help the LibDems with a general realisation that a two-party stitch-up isn't working.
While the core JC fan club will never turn on him, I'd be surprised if that's a majority of the membership (and certainly no more than 10 or 20 per cent of the electorate). He certainly won't survive beyond another election defeat, while he might have done so in another hung parliament if he put in another plucky performance in a fight dominated by the two parties.
(*Sorry if that's given you an unpleasant image over your coffee
) 0 -
Personally I'd go with the Scottish and Welsh hybrid systems to keep the constituency link - 400 geographic constituencies FPTP and 200 list members from 10 areasGallowgate said:
What’s your suggestion? PR?SouthamObserver said:First past the post is going to become even more dysfunctional and the composition of the House of Commons is going to reflect public opinion even less than it does now. Anyone genuinely worried about democracy should think long and hard about that.
Or 500/100 should ensure representation of anyone getting 5% or so in an area0 -
Blair/Brown premiership =/= Corbyn premiership.kle4 said:
What did they do with it the last time? Probably the same as that unless they commit to remove itTOPPING said:
And can no one see the parallel between Javid's actions in revoking British citizenship? What on god'srottenborough said:
I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.williamglenn said:
Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.greenred earth would Lab do with that power?0 -
What of the conspiracy theory that Carswell was not a defector but Cameron's undercover mole in Ukip?Sandpit said:
Yep!TheScreamingEagles said:
It was only Mark Reckless that earned that sobriquet, I was fine with Carswell defecting.CD13 said:Mr Flashman,
"I look forward to seeing the response of Tory attack dogs on any defectors."
Mr Eagles with his pig-dog traitor accusations?
It was the timing of the Reckless defection that made me want to stick a red hot poker up the arse of Mark Reckless.
Even Tory Leavers think Reckless is a c**t because of the timing of the defection.
Carswell was an honourable man who decided to leave the party over a difference of policy. I'll probably say the same about Sarah Woolaston later. It happens from time to time and we all move on.
Reckless though, he was a f*****g s****y c**t who deliberately timed his defection to cause maximum chaos and damage to the party in the week of their conference.0 -
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1098137817430016002kle4 said:Right, any defectors please hold off until my lunch break please.
0 -
And when Jezza comes in any Jew will be very wary of an Israeli stamp in their passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. There must be hundreds of thousands of Britons who, under Javid's definition should now worry they could arbitrarily be stripped of their nationality.TOPPING said:
Agree with all of that but the fact that our visceral desire for vengeance is constrained by the rule of law is what distinguishes us from the other lot.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.0 -
The recommendation of the Jenkins Commission, set up by Labour, was AV plus - constituencies electing MPs using AV, with an additional member top-up to deliver a fair overall result.dyedwoolie said:
Personally I'd go with the Scottish and Welsh hybrid systems to keep the constituency link - 400 geographic constituencies FPTP and 200 list members from 10 areasGallowgate said:
What’s your suggestion? PR?SouthamObserver said:First past the post is going to become even more dysfunctional and the composition of the House of Commons is going to reflect public opinion even less than it does now. Anyone genuinely worried about democracy should think long and hard about that.
0 -
I saw yesterday a Corbyn tweet from 2010 saying you don't vote for parties but for individual MPs. However I cannot now find that again.
Was it someone on here that posted it?0 -
-
Are any of the potential defectors on a list to be called by the Speaker?0
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https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/11763688769Alistair said:I saw yesterday a Corbyn tweet from 2010 saying you don't vote for parties but for individual MPs. However I cannot now find that again.
Was it someone on here that posted it?0 -
See, I really hate that system. I hate the idea of two classes of MP and its also not very proportional.dyedwoolie said:
Personally I'd go with the Scottish and Welsh hybrid systems to keep the constituency link - 400 geographic constituencies FPTP and 200 list members from 10 areasGallowgate said:
What’s your suggestion? PR?SouthamObserver said:First past the post is going to become even more dysfunctional and the composition of the House of Commons is going to reflect public opinion even less than it does now. Anyone genuinely worried about democracy should think long and hard about that.
Or 500/100 should ensure representation of anyone getting 5% or so in an area
My vote would be STV with mixed member constituencies. It is, in my opinion, by far the fairest option.0 -
Funny how it's only when 7 Labour MPs leave the party that all of sudden Labour decide that defections need to be another route to recall (which I think is a bad idea generally anyway).bigjohnowls said:
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule0 -
I am not.Gallowgate said:
Why are you so rattled?bigjohnowls said:
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule
I do think it's right that when 80% of constituents vote for a Representative of a party like in Wavertree. If the person they elected leaves that part there should be a chance to test whether enough have changed their mind to make said representatives actions valid.0 -
There was a stat I posted here yesterday that of 69 post war defections only 4 have had by-elections.YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.
Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.0 -
Actually, it could be Thursday 11th if called today, Easter is later than I thought it was (21st April). 18th if called tomorrow though!Richard_Tyndall said:
That is what I thought. And as we saw during the 2010 post election negotiations it was the incumbent Government who retained control of power. Although of course Darling being an honourable man refused to do anything that would bind an incoming Government during the Greek crisis.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).
Who is the government during and immediately after the campaign depends on what happens during the two weeks following the VoNC. The convention, as happened in 2010, is that the incumbent PM won't resign until it's clear to everyone who HM needs to send for. Dragging the Queen into it would be very poor form.
There's lots of unknowns as this situation hasn't happened before, so for example could Parliament legislate during the period between the VoNC and its dissolution, to reduce the length of the election campaign? I imagine their Lordships would probably object to that.
As far as Brexit goes, it would have to be either an extension of A50 (unanimously agreed by the other 27), - or a crash-out no-mitigation no-deal right in the middle of the election campaign!0 -
Ref recall. Its easily got around. Defy the whip until expelled then join new party. If expelled no right yo recall on that basis0
-
You are rattled. You had no problem when Corbyn ignored an overwelming vote of no confidence from his MPs.bigjohnowls said:
I am not.Gallowgate said:
Why are you so rattled?bigjohnowls said:
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule
I do think it's right that when 80% of constituents vote for a Representative of a party like in Wavertree. If the person they elected leaves that part there should be a chance to test whether enough have changed their mind to make said representatives actions valid.
The hypocricy is obscene. Suck it up.0 -
-
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098137448511692800kle4 said:Right, any defectors please hold off until my lunch break please.
0 -
If it was ok then it would be ok for future pms. Until a party wins which removes it own power we cannot do anything about that whether we like that power or not and regardless of this case. I'd be fine if it was taken away but I cannot object to the procedure if he has actually followed it, or if future pm Corbyn does. Worrying.TOPPING said:
Blair/Brown premiership =/= Corbyn premiership.kle4 said:
What did they do with it the last time? Probably the same as that unless they commit to remove itTOPPING said:
And can no one see the parallel between Javid's actions in revoking British citizenship? What on god'srottenborough said:
I'm suspicious I'm afraid that a Constitutional Convention, which worked in Scotland, will, when run by the Hard Left, turn into a exercise to remove democratic control of the Glorious Leader.williamglenn said:
Goodbye HoL. Goodbye regular GEs even.greenred earth would Lab do with that power?0 -
I think that's right. Excepting the interval between one going and the next coming into HMQ's parlour, of course.rottenborough said:
There is always a PM is the basic rule I think. May remains PM until someone else has kissed the Queen (or Corbyn's case had one of his aide's shake her hand wearing gloves).Richard_Tyndall said:
That is what I thought. And as we saw during the 2010 post election negotiations it was the incumbent Government who retained control of power. Although of course Darling being an honourable man refused to do anything that would bind an incoming Government during the Greek crisis.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).
If May out because she has literally walked out of the door and fled to Snowdon, then Cabinet picks a PM I believe. Constitution vague on this, but should probably be the Home Sec. He would then kiss the Queen and run her government until GE day.
Happy to be corrected.
And I suspect no one really knows exactly what would happen except the Cabinet Sec and the Queen's secretary.0 -
172 of 500000 a majority does not make.Gallowgate said:
You are rattled. You had no problem when Corbyn ignored an overwelming vote of no confidence from his MPs.bigjohnowls said:
I am not.Gallowgate said:
Why are you so rattled?bigjohnowls said:
By Corbyns mob.glw said:
Well exactly. This isn't some matter of great principle it's about Corbyn's mob being able to end the parliamentary careers of people they disagree with.kle4 said:If a recall could be done when leaving a party what if leaving was not by choice?
You mean the Constituents of the defectors.
So when Allen and Soubry leave the Tories today you think a fresh election is mob rule
I do think it's right that when 80% of constituents vote for a Representative of a party like in Wavertree. If the person they elected leaves that part there should be a chance to test whether enough have changed their mind to make said representatives actions valid.
The hypocricy is obscene. Suck it up.
Did you not notice there was a 2nd vote. The electors reaffirmed the result with a larger majority.0 -
https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1098004663096541184glw said:Funny how it's only when 7 Labour MPs leave the party that all of sudden Labour decide that defections need to be another route to recall (which I think is a bad idea generally anyway).
0 -
How would the selection process for a new Labour leader happen? I can’t see anyone standing aside when it’s the PM-ship at stake. And who forms the government in the interim?ydoethur said:Interesting speculation at the end about the price for Labour entering power would be somebody
sane, intelligent and honestother than Corbyn being PM. Such a system has worked in Ireland, in 1948 for example when Richard Mulcahy stood aside in favour of John Costello because certain potential coalition partners had neither forgotten nor forgiven his role in shooting IRA detainees.
There are however a number of issues that raises:
1) Since this is about personality, not policy, what role could then be found for Corbyn? He would presumably be the leader of he largest party in Parliament, yet he has been overlooked for PM because he has neither the talent nor the temperament for the role. So would that not apply to any Cabinet role? Or does he become Lord Privy Seal and bore everyone with his Marxist tropes while being kept as far as possible from anything important?
2) who could then stand in as PM? The Shadow Cabinet are a bunch of fifth-rate makewights some of whom actually make Corbyn look like a serious figure. Macdonnell is a serious figure and a significant intellect, but is out for other reasons. Would people actually support Tom Watson, Keri Starmer or Emily Thornberry for PM? Or would the backbenchers come into play? Or even Ian Blackford of the SNP?
In this particular case, therefore, I can't see it. More likely no coalition deal can be agreed and the Tory government stays in office faute de mieux at the whim of the Commons (plus ca change...)!0 -
-
There is a procedure which appears to be being followedRichard_Tyndall said:
It would be much better for the Government to step up and take responsibility for one if it's citizens and ensure there is a proper judicial solution to the issue. Either she had broken the law in which case she should be punished or she has not in which case we should not be allowing a politician to punish her without due procedure.ydoethur said:
Why? Would it be much better to have a running total of how many Corbynistas favour bloodthirsty terrorists with plans for genocide against the Jews?_Anazina_ said:
Let us hope that this morning isn’t going to be dominated by live updates on how many bloodthirsty Britons on the Daily Mail website favour the rule of the mob over the rule of English law.CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
0 -
It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.TOPPING said:
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
If its a public recall then whips have nothing to do with itdyedwoolie said:Ref recall. Its easily got around. Defy the whip until expelled then join new party. If expelled no right yo recall on that basis
0 -
Sanders will lose to Trump bigly. Possibly McGovern territory, its certain an independent would run if the dems pick a socialist and split their vote. Warren has no chance, Biden has skeletons, Hillary will be 786. Its Harris or KlobucharNickPalmer said:Parties threatened with defections need to mix carrots and sticks. I don't think that the suggestion of easier recall is a very effective stick, though, since it could only be done in a future Parliament, and as pointed out downthreead it'd be unfair if someone was thrown out of a party invoulntarily.
O/T: Harris and other less-known hopefuls seem to be fading when their launch moment passes. Sanders rising even before he announced:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
My liberal Democrat US contacts are essentially saying "We will look at others but probably go for Sanders in the end". Warren is toast IMO for that reason. The main bit of the puzzle missing is Biden's decision and where his votes go if he decides against.
You heard it here first.0 -
This change has been a long time coming. Both the Tories and Labour are unfit as policitical vehicles for the 21st century. If new parties form based on other things than broad left/right politics then thats a fantastic thing.
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Yes, you're right. Would need the VoNC tabled today though.eek said:
Easter is on the April 19-22nd so it would be on the April 11th.Sandpit said:
The situation of a VoNC leading to the dissolution of Parliament for an election, with the clock ticking down to no deal, would be a proper constitutional crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:On the issue of a GE.
If May lost a VoNC, what is the earliest date realistically a GE could take place?
Once Parliament is dissolved then they have no more control over the Brexit process and the only person who could then stop a No Deal would be May herself as she remains PM throughout the campaign and election.
From a timetable point of view, the FTPA allows for 14 calendar days between the first VoNC passing and dissolution of Parliament, and 25 working days for the election campaign.
Assuming the election ends up on a Thursday, A VoNC tabled today and passed tomorrow results in a dissolution on Thursday 7th March for an election on 18th April (no earlier than Monday 15th, due to Easter holidays).0 -
4 honourable men/women out of 64. And 2 of those were UKIP (Carswell & Reckless).IanB2 said:
There was a stat I posted here yesterday that of 69 post war defections only 4 have had by-elections.YBarddCwsc said:I think defecting MPs should face by elections.
My AM defected from Plaid Cymru to Labour.
He was elected through the hard work and financial resources of Plaid Cymru’s local activists. Without their support and without standing under the banner of Plaid Cymru, the AM (Elis Thomas) would not have won his seat.
Curiously, Labour didn’t see any need for a byelection when Elis Thomas defected, as it gave them a working majority in the Senedd.
Mark Reckless is an unpleasant apology of a human being.
But, he has more integrity than Elis Thomas, than Ummuna, Berger, Shuker, Smith, Gapes, Coffey, Leslie and Ryan.
Because he did resign and fight a by-election. And that is completely the right thing to do.
Just because the political complexion of the new group may closely align with what one believes does not alter the fact that it is built on deception and lies.
I suspect also that it is the right thing to do for the long term -- in you want to hold the seat at a GE. If you lose in a by-election, you’ll certainly lose at the GE.
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Agree. I never listen to The Moral Maze on t'radio but this evening's episode is about this issue and I might tune in.twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's fecking complicated, ain't it? I don't want her bought back without sanction, but Javid excommunicsting her without some form of trial/hearing is dangerous for all of us. Plus her baby is as British as me and you anyway, and deserves our protection.TOPPING said:
She was a child, as you say, but on the stroke of midnight on her 18th birthday she was supposed to have shrugged off the previous three years of indoctrination?twistedfirestopper3 said:
There is a pretty good case to be made that she has committed treason, so I'd be fine with her being bought back and put on trial for that. On the other hand, she was only a kid when she ran away, and from a vastly different culture. If the silly fecker could have just shown a bit of remorse, it'd all have been so much easier. Just shrugging her shoulders and saying she wants to come back because she picked the losing team was never going to fly well.Theuniondivvie said:
Your SS girl would have been taken back nevertheless, her UK nationality imposed upon her (cf William Joyce) and faced the full force of the law.asjohnstone said:
People don't like her. The media framing of her as "ISIS Bride" is fatal.TOPPING said:
How many votes did the BNP get at the height of their popularity?CarlottaVance said:Daily Mail Isis Bride Passport Article now on close to 100,000 shares and top comment 45,000 likes...
Let's be honest ISIS is an awful organisation that did shocking crimes. Imagine a British girl had sneaked off to germany in 1940 and married an SS officer.
Whilst it'd be wrong to blame her for the holocaust, she'd not expect a warm welcome.
Same here. Whilst I can understand the whole, she was young, redemption thought process, I also get the visceral desire for vengeance.
I'm pretty sure if the UK still had the death penalty for treason (not such a wild mind experiment as it would have been a few years ago), Javid would be screeching for Begum's return to prove his political manhood.0 -
If it has always been the case that someone can be stripped of UK citizenship if they qualify for another nation as well, the implied threat to British Jews has always been there, with or without the Begum case.Scott_P said:0
