politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This could be right – Corbyn blocking moves for a second refer
Comments
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I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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Beautiful graphics on that site. Not seen that one before. I’ll have to take a look.spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
I think the 5% is her vote...Benpointer said:
That's 105% without any other parties.bigjohnowls said:
Next one he analysed is Penis Townbigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).
Angela Smith 5% She has lost the funny tinge vote
Con Gain 51% to Lab 49%
Maybe a top end estimate, sounds a bit high.
51% 49% is the odds of winning the seat.0 -
Sorry 5% is her shareBenpointer said:
That's 105% without any other parties.bigjohnowls said:
Next one he analysed is Penis Townbigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).
Angela Smith 5% She has lost the funny tinge vote
Con Gain 51% to Lab 49%
Probability of winning is 51/490 -
Hard to imagine, though that's not to say that they wouldn't stomp in with their hand-made size 11s. Ironically their most likely recruit, Ian Murray, has the highest majority in Scotland.another_richard said:
Crewe ?Theuniondivvie said:
Marginals is what I saw in a tweet. Not quite sure how those marginals would be defined tho'...another_richard said:
And which seats would they be ?Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Dudley North ?
Newcastle under Lyme ?
Southampton Itchen ?
Not quite their territory I expect.
Barrow is highly marginal so they could stand there against Corbyn Labour and Woodcock Labour.
If they get any Scottish recruits and somehow manage to get SLD to stand down then Fife NE perhaps, but I wouldn't fancy their chances in Glasgow E or Glasgow NE.0 -
Could you conceive a Chuka led Lib Dems?MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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It is also kind of irrevelant to the Swindon plant. Swindon made civics go to the US. Turkish made ones go to the EU. Honda is shutting both plants and moving production back to japan.another_richard said:
From 10% falling to 5% and then falling to zero.Foxy said:
The tariff on imported Japanese cars to the EU is still at 5% in 2022.another_richard said:
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1097560475452297217?s=190 -
Best hope May doesn't get pictured doing something mundane during a crisis.Scott_P said:0 -
Anyway.
How about Chelsea manager sacked in the morning, OGS confirmed MU manager in the morning0 -
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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From the BBC interview:Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/
' Ms Begum said she made the choice to go to Syria and could make her own decisions, despite being only 15 at the time. She said she was partly inspired by videos of fighters beheading hostages and also by videos showing "the good life" under IS.
She watched videos of the murders of British hostages, she told the BBC, but said she did not know the names of any of the victims.
Our correspondent said that "throughout the interview, Shamima Begum continued to espouse Islamic State philosophy." He added: "When I asked her about the enslavement, murder and rape of Yazidi women by IS, she said 'Shia do the same in Iraq'." '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-472765720 -
Whatever else may happen, it seems highly unlikely they thought their electoral prospects were improved by defecting, given how rarely that would be the case.spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
Mogg: "Just as many people are now out of work in Swindon as are in Glasgow. So I don't see a problem."ralphmalph said:
Depends what Honda say tomorrow.Roger said:The knock on effects of Honda are going to be huge. I wonder how Johnson Gove and Rees Mogg are going to explain themselves?
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She also think the Manchester bombing was fair game.another_richard said:
From the BBC interview:Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/
' Ms Begum said she made the choice to go to Syria and could make her own decisions, despite being only 15 at the time. She said she was partly inspired by videos of fighters beheading hostages and also by videos showing "the good life" under IS.
She watched videos of the murders of British hostages, she told the BBC, but said she did not know the names of any of the victims.
Our correspondent said that "throughout the interview, Shamima Begum continued to espouse Islamic State philosophy." He added: "When I asked her about the enslavement, murder and rape of Yazidi women by IS, she said 'Shia do the same in Iraq'." '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-472765720 -
Oh well, at least it is only 'mostly' untrue.bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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Are you calling ms Berger a liar?bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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A councillor following the MPs out of Labour:
https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/17440551.lydiard-and-freshbrook-councillor-quits-labour-party/
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And theres the problem in a nutshell.bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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There were seat losses and wilderness times along the way, but are we really contending that the SDP splitters had worse political careers than had they remained in Labour?
If you reduce the third party share in 83 - it doesn't all go Labour.
You still have the battle with Militant before Labour can win
The Gang of Four are elder statespeople in 97 - do they really get a cabinet position?
Their only point of (career) opportunity is it they add a bit of gravitas in 92, Labour win and they get a portfolio for a couple of years - which maybe would not have matched their positions in earlier Labour governments.
It'll be a roller coaster, but I'm not convinced the Tiggers have diminished their political careers either.0 -
Penis Town votes shares always include some exaggerationBenpointer said:
That's 105% without any other parties.bigjohnowls said:
Next one he analysed is Penis Townbigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).
Angela Smith 5% She has lost the funny tinge vote
Con Gain 51% to Lab 49%0 -
If the Swindon made cars go to the USA then the lower level of sterling has probably given the plant a few more years of operation.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is also kind of irrevelant to the Swindon plant. Swindon made civics go to the US. Turkish made ones go to the EU. Honda is shutting both plants and moving production back to japan.another_richard said:
From 10% falling to 5% and then falling to zero.Foxy said:
The tariff on imported Japanese cars to the EU is still at 5% in 2022.another_richard said:
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1097560475452297217?s=19
As I remember it was on the brink of closure a few times in the previous decade.0 -
It's a bold move on his part. He can probably survive losing 7 MPs over it. How m any more though I wonder. Given the reluctance of others not to join the 7 today, can he, in fact, push the rest as much as he likes now?justin124 said:
Corbyn believes - rightly in my view - that the public at large does not share the Brexit obsession of the LibDems, ERG and the commentariat. Refusing to bow to such pressure might go down well.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".0 -
@cyclefree made a good post about moral v physical courage, a few days ago.
The 7 have shown plenty of moral courage, but sadly that has to be its own reward. Moral courage means burning boats with friends, family, constituents, party members, in the certain knowledge that they will hate you.0 -
LOLIanB2 said:
Penis Town votes shares always include some exaggerationBenpointer said:
That's 105% without any other parties.bigjohnowls said:
Next one he analysed is Penis Townbigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).
Angela Smith 5% She has lost the funny tinge vote
Con Gain 51% to Lab 49%0 -
Making it urgent that the LibDems move on from Vince asapEl_Capitano said:
Yes, in an age of starkly apparent inequality, most people do like the sound of redistributive policies.Sean_F said:
The 80% dislike Brexit, but they like the rest of what Corbyn offers.Philip_Thompson said:
It might. Or going against what reportedly 80% of his own voters want might actually backfire.justin124 said:
Corbyn believes - rightly in my view - that the public at large does not share the Brexit obsession of the LibDems, ERG and the commentariat. Refusing to bow to such pressure might go down well.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".
In reality, the Lib Dem manifesto at GE2017 was much more redistributive than the Labour one. According to the IFS: "While the Liberal Democrat proposal would affect the highest-income half of adults, Labour’s proposal would only affect the highest-income 2%. But the revenue from Labour’s plans is vastly more uncertain, and highly likely to be lower than under the Liberal Democrats. Both the Liberal Democrats and Labour propose increases to benefits. But those proposed by the Liberal Democrats are much larger – reversing nearly all of the cuts planned for the next few years."
But Corbyn got the gains and Farron didn't. Turns out that people are more inclined to believe redistribution coming from a grizzled old socialist than from an evangelical running a party that just two years previously was propping up the Tories... whodatuhunkit.
It's not about liking what Corbyn offers. It's about liking how he offers it. If you think the "oh Jeremy Corbyn" halo will still be in place at the time of the next election, then by all means bet on him as the next Prime Minister. I'm not convinced it will be. I think we're seeing a steady tarnishing of that halo, and that when put up against potentially a new Conservative leader and a new Lib Dem/TIG/whatever leader, Corbyn may no longer be such an attractive choice. Corbyn vs May is a very different race than Corbyn vs Javid vs the Moran-Berger Alliance.0 -
Yes, that is a nasty side of it, and you're right, but only one. The other is that this is a Blairite insurrection and will be clearly seen as such. Rather than being seen as a shit leader, Corbyn is now a torchbearer for socialism against the Ummanites. Especially if any Tories join them! Or any members of the HOL. The optics of it are horrid.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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She's a fully fledged nutter and she can fcuk right off .another_richard said:
From the BBC interview:Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/
' Ms Begum said she made the choice to go to Syria and could make her own decisions, despite being only 15 at the time. She said she was partly inspired by videos of fighters beheading hostages and also by videos showing "the good life" under IS.
She watched videos of the murders of British hostages, she told the BBC, but said she did not know the names of any of the victims.
Our correspondent said that "throughout the interview, Shamima Begum continued to espouse Islamic State philosophy." He added: "When I asked her about the enslavement, murder and rape of Yazidi women by IS, she said 'Shia do the same in Iraq'." '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47276572
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You’re a Geordie, yes? We can share one next time you’re in TeessideGallowgate said:
Ban this sick filth.Freggles said:Full disclosure.
I enjoyed gluten free Hawaiian pizza on Saturday night.
And I look forward to repeating the experience in future.
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2 people have been kicked out.kle4 said:
Oh well, at least it is only 'mostly' untrue.bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
Of the 200 people named on Dame Margarets list only 20 were even members. 5 still under investigation 2 kicked out 7 not Guilty 6 required training.
over 500,000 members0 -
2+2 = 5FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you calling ms Berger a liar?bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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I remember that chap - as it notes in this story, he defected to the Conservatives awhile ago, then changed his mind in a day. Not sure he was feeling that close with them anyway.IanB2 said:A councillor following the MPs out of Labour:
https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/17440551.lydiard-and-freshbrook-councillor-quits-labour-party/0 -
When I saw the Mail "Leader who has lost the plot" headline for a fraction of a second I thought it was the back page and about Sarri.Big_G_NorthWales said:Anyway.
How about Chelsea manager sacked in the morning, OGS confirmed MU manager in the morning
I doubt Old Trafford will confirm OGS until at least after the Liverpool game next week but Sarri should be replaced before the League Cup Final.0 -
bigjohnowls said:
2 people have been kicked out.kle4 said:
Oh well, at least it is only 'mostly' untrue.bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
Of the 200 people named on Dame Margarets list only 20 were even members. 5 still under investigation 2 kicked out 7 not Guilty 6 required training.
over 500,000 members
Stop digging.bigjohnowls said:
2 people have been kicked out.kle4 said:
Oh well, at least it is only 'mostly' untrue.bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
Of the 200 people named on Dame Margarets list only 20 were even members. 5 still under investigation 2 kicked out 7 not Guilty 6 required training.
over 500,000 members0 -
Wonder what varieties he's growing?Scott_P said: 0 -
But for how long ?IanB2 said:A councillor following the MPs out of Labour:
https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/17440551.lydiard-and-freshbrook-councillor-quits-labour-party/
' In October 2016, Coun Courtliff defected to the Conservatives due to concerns over Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, then returned to the Labour Party less than 24 hours later saying he had made "a terrible mistake". '0 -
.0
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What a brilliant day to readmit
Having been out rehearsing a play, I have only just seen the news.Jonathan said:Derek Hatton FFS.
Is there anyone in the Labour party machine who has any common sense?0 -
Presumably the lack of people being kicked out is the concern from the gang of 7.bigjohnowls said:
2 people have been kicked out.kle4 said:
Oh well, at least it is only 'mostly' untrue.bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
I find it hard to doubt their sincerity - their careers are probably over, and even if the clock was running down for some of them they did not need to risk their careers and make an emotional split like this if they did not genuinely believe there to be a major problem.
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Yes they are for Corbyn and the Labour Party. Any other conclusion is foolish.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, that is a nasty side of it, and you're right, but only one. The other is that this is a Blairite insurrection and will be clearly seen as such. Rather than being seen as a shit leader, Corbyn is now a torchbearer for socialism against the Ummanites. Especially if any Tories join them! Or any members of the HOL. The optics of it are horrid.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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#potatogaterottenborough said:0 -
One insider added that he also expected Labour peers Wahid Ali, Margaret McDonagh, John Reid to sit as Independents in the Lords.Scott_P said:0 -
That link says 10 labour and 6 tories to join the tiggers and a number of labour lords to sit as independents.Scott_P said:twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1097624304181805057
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What's foolish and an admission of defeat is not to stay in and try and get rid of him from the inside.Mexicanpete said:
Yes they are for Corbyn and the Labour Party. Any other conclusion is foolish.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, that is a nasty side of it, and you're right, but only one. The other is that this is a Blairite insurrection and will be clearly seen as such. Rather than being seen as a shit leader, Corbyn is now a torchbearer for socialism against the Ummanites. Especially if any Tories join them! Or any members of the HOL. The optics of it are horrid.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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Go for it, be bold! I yearn to see both of them be shaken up by defections, that way neither one can get smug about the other.FrancisUrquhart said:
That link says 10 labour and 6 tories to join the tiggers and a number of labour lords to leave.Scott_P said:twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1097624304181805057
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With regards to police protection at Labour Conference the police called her a liar.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you calling ms Berger a liar?bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
With respect to where the AS abuse comes from she is economical with the truth you would think it was mainly from Corbynites when its actually mainly from Right Wingers not in the Labour Party.
If any party members have used AS against her they should be kicked out. It is completely unacceptable0 -
rottenborough said:
They look like seed potatoes for this years growing season to me? 0 -
Does anybody know any good Stocksbridge jokes?IanB2 said:
Penis Town votes shares always include some exaggerationBenpointer said:
That's 105% without any other parties.bigjohnowls said:
Next one he analysed is Penis Townbigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).
Angela Smith 5% She has lost the funny tinge vote
Con Gain 51% to Lab 49%0 -
"Go back to your allotment and prepare for retirement."0
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Another depressing day of everyone interpreting news only through the prism of Brexit. I am sure the arguments around the decision has been put forth on here but I am praying for Brexit to happen soon so we can just get on with something elseRoger said:The knock on effects of Honda are going to be huge. I wonder how Johnson Gove and Rees Mogg are going to explain themselves?
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That's why they have all be agonising over this for months.Luckyguy1983 said:
What's foolish and an admission of defeat is not to stay in and try and get rid of him from the inside.Mexicanpete said:
Yes they are for Corbyn and the Labour Party. Any other conclusion is foolish.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, that is a nasty side of it, and you're right, but only one. The other is that this is a Blairite insurrection and will be clearly seen as such. Rather than being seen as a shit leader, Corbyn is now a torchbearer for socialism against the Ummanites. Especially if any Tories join them! Or any members of the HOL. The optics of it are horrid.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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There is no hope for you. There were death threats made against her and the leader (or anybody from his office) didn’t even tell her or offer any support. They just sat on it for months. Imagine if something had happened to her.bigjohnowls said:
With regards to police protection at Labour Conference the police called her a liar.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you calling ms Berger a liar?bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
With respect to where the AS abuse comes from she is economical with the truth you would think it was mainly from Corbynites when its actually mainly from Right Wingers not in the Labour Party.
If any party members have used AS against her they should be kicked out. It is completely unacceptable0 -
Is it actually true?rottenborough said:0 -
You are in denial, sadlybigjohnowls said:
With regards to police protection at Labour Conference the police called her a liar.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you calling ms Berger a liar?bigjohnowls said:
But also mostly untrue.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
With respect to where the AS abuse comes from she is economical with the truth you would think it was mainly from Corbynites when its actually mainly from Right Wingers not in the Labour Party.
If any party members have used AS against her they should be kicked out. It is completely unacceptable0 -
I wonder if she thinks anyone killing her in this country would be fair game ?FrancisUrquhart said:
She also think the Manchester bombing was fair game.another_richard said:
From the BBC interview:Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/
' Ms Begum said she made the choice to go to Syria and could make her own decisions, despite being only 15 at the time. She said she was partly inspired by videos of fighters beheading hostages and also by videos showing "the good life" under IS.
She watched videos of the murders of British hostages, she told the BBC, but said she did not know the names of any of the victims.
Our correspondent said that "throughout the interview, Shamima Begum continued to espouse Islamic State philosophy." He added: "When I asked her about the enslavement, murder and rape of Yazidi women by IS, she said 'Shia do the same in Iraq'." '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-472765720 -
Then the photo caption is wrong, as it says he is heading home from the allotment.GIN1138 said:rottenborough said:
They look like seed potatoes for this years growing season to me?
0 -
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Viewing the abuse from Corbyn's cronies like McCluskey and McDonnell one can understand why they felt there was no alternative. I think it a tragedy that someone of Umuna's calibre has been forced out by someone as terminally useless as Corbyn.Luckyguy1983 said:
What's foolish and an admission of defeat is not to stay in and try and get rid of him from the inside.Mexicanpete said:
Yes they are for Corbyn and the Labour Party. Any other conclusion is foolish.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, that is a nasty side of it, and you're right, but only one. The other is that this is a Blairite insurrection and will be clearly seen as such. Rather than being seen as a shit leader, Corbyn is now a torchbearer for socialism against the Ummanites. Especially if any Tories join them! Or any members of the HOL. The optics of it are horrid.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
0 -
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I get the point they want to make, but I don't know why they've framed the story around that point rather than just focus on the crisis, the condemnations about antisemitism and such.dixiedean said:0 -
There is very little downside for peers to quit their parties. It is not as if they need to face re-selection let alone the electoraterottenborough said:0 -
What, Hatton rejoining Labour or Corbyn welcoming such?bigjohnowls said:
Is it actually true?rottenborough said:0 -
I forget to mention my sympathies for your difficulties.another_richard said:
Are you still in Lichfield ?AndyJS said:
Rings true with me, I've given up on trying to buy my own house. You have to practically be a millionaire round here to afford even a small property, and this isn't the south-east or London.another_richard said:On more mundane socioeconomic matters an explanation for why the Conservatives are struggling among the under 35s:
' Britain’s increasingly unaffordable housing market has delayed the age when most adults become homeowners by at least eight years since 1997, according to official figures.
Among one of several signals that young adults are being forced to wait until much later in life to reach key milestones, the Office for National Statistics said it took until the age of 34 for more than half of the population to own their own home, compared to 26 in 1997.
Average house prices in Britain have skyrocketed by more than 270% over the past two decades – with a significant acceleration for property values since the financial crisis a decade ago – pushing homes out of reach for growing numbers of people.
The ONS study revealed that the average age by which more than 50% of the population lived in a home they owned had been 28 as recently as 2007, meaning the bulk of the shift since 1997 has taken place in the past decade. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/feb/18/uk-house-prices-raised-age-of-ownership-by-eight-years-since-1997
If so is it really that much more expensive than the rest of Staffordshire even accounting for it being a pretty Cathedral town.
You have the bad luck to be a victim of the housing problems much of the country has.0 -
Why WoW He has been on a journey from left to right since the 80srottenborough said:
Would have thought he would be at least at the Tory stage by now.0 -
Well she was in this country when a british soldier was murdered on the london streets and two british hostages were beheaded by isis but it didn't stop her running away to become a jihadi bride.another_richard said:
I wonder if she thinks anyone killing her in this country would be fair game ?FrancisUrquhart said:
She also think the Manchester bombing was fair game.another_richard said:
From the BBC interview:Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/
' Ms Begum said she made the choice to go to Syria and could make her own decisions, despite being only 15 at the time. She said she was partly inspired by videos of fighters beheading hostages and also by videos showing "the good life" under IS.
She watched videos of the murders of British hostages, she told the BBC, but said she did not know the names of any of the victims.
Our correspondent said that "throughout the interview, Shamima Begum continued to espouse Islamic State philosophy." He added: "When I asked her about the enslavement, murder and rape of Yazidi women by IS, she said 'Shia do the same in Iraq'." '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-472765720 -
Labour, condemned to the Corbyn of history. Disaster.
The irony the biggest serial rebel couldn’t tolerate dissent or other views. Didn’t call off the attack dogs. Drove his own MPs away.
Corbyn is not Labour.0 -
Didn't he appear alongside Cameron against AV ?bigjohnowls said:
Why WoW He has been on a journey from left to right since the 80srottenborough said:
Would have thought he would be at least at the Tory stage by now.0 -
Is that news? He's been that for months and months.Scott_P said:0 -
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1097625570010120195
'patter'
'flipping'
'legend'
'Mate'
'fella'
God, I hate that shite.0 -
If the tiggers need a Tory I reckon John Marek could be persuaded for a bag of werthers.
He's not switched party in at least a month0 -
0
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It remains to be seen whether this issue will make a jot of difference. My guess is that it won't - at least, not beyond any (rather modest) impact that it's already had.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
The airwaves have been filled with repeated waves of stories about Labour's appalling record on antisemitism for many months now; this appears, insofar as one can trust anything at all that is indicated by the polls, to have made little difference.
I would venture to suggest that no more votes are going to be swung by further mention of this topic. I'd wager that an awful lot of people really don't give a shit one way or the other, and those who do have either already abandoned Labour in disgust, or are so hopelessly devoted to the party and/or in such deep denial about the extent of the problem that they're never going to switch sides under any circumstances.
My guess is that the principal driving factors in politics (in England and Wales at any rate; Scotland and Northern Ireland are rather different ecosystems) are still, for the time being, the Marmite-like quality of Mr Corbyn; entrenched hatred of the Tories (an accumulation of years of austerity Government and underlying cultural rejection of the party by a significant minority of the electorate); and an electoral map containing a relatively short supply of marginals and which handicaps Labour, especially since it can no longer call upon a large Scottish bloc to help top-up its numbers.
In essence, the race is on between the major parties to find new and more appealing leaders who can have a shot at winning a majority, and the big bonus prize for anybody who can do that is control of the rules under which the long-overdue next round of Parliamentary boundary reform will finally be enacted (assuming that the Government doesn't survive until 2022 and manage to get the current proposals through both Houses, which it yet might.)
The Spliterati are probably going nowhere, and Brexit only has the potential to cause serious upheaval to the party system if the betrayal narrative can become entrenched - which would require either BINO or Remain. May's Deal would probably put just enough distance between us and the EU to take much of the heat out of the topic.0 -
Did she run off to become a jihadi bride? Or simply a jihadi?Tykejohnno said:
Well she was in this country when a british soldier was murdered on the london streets and two british hostages were beheaded by isis but it didn't stop her running away to become a jihadi bride.another_richard said:
I wonder if she thinks anyone killing her in this country would be fair game ?FrancisUrquhart said:
She also think the Manchester bombing was fair game.another_richard said:
From the BBC interview:Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/
' Ms Begum said she made the choice to go to Syria and could make her own decisions, despite being only 15 at the time. She said she was partly inspired by videos of fighters beheading hostages and also by videos showing "the good life" under IS.
She watched videos of the murders of British hostages, she told the BBC, but said she did not know the names of any of the victims.
Our correspondent said that "throughout the interview, Shamima Begum continued to espouse Islamic State philosophy." He added: "When I asked her about the enslavement, murder and rape of Yazidi women by IS, she said 'Shia do the same in Iraq'." '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47276572
If she comes back to this country she should be charged with treason and jailed for life.0 -
Because political journalists are so out of touch that any interest outside politics is considered "weird", quirky or even downright suspicious.kle4 said:
I get the point they want to make, but I don't know why they've framed the story around that point rather than just focus on the crisis, the condemnations about antisemitism and such.dixiedean said:
They never fail to introduce Ken Clarke as jazz-loving, or Major as MCC member, etc.
The general public don't see it that way. Am reminded of the pearl clutching when Corbyn was photographed at an Arsenal game during the GE campaign. Regular people have interests and hobbies and don't think it controversial when politicians do.0 -
But what could be better for him than the next ten years cheerleading against the evil Tory government without having to do anything tangible to make life better for the dispossessed.Jonathan said:Labour, condemned to the Corbyn of history. Disaster.
The irony the biggest serial rebel couldn’t tolerate dissent or other views. Didn’t call off the attack dogs. Drove his own MPs away.
Corbyn is not Labour.
0 -
I suppose if we get enough various blocs of MPs sitting all over the place, we might get a proper PR system to replace FPTP.
Or more likely some god-awful pseudo system such that the whole thing limps on under increasingly rainbow coalitions using FPTP.0 -
About half and half to the US and the EU, from what I read. Assuming the US import tariffs are the same for Japan and the EU, that would mean an average 5 percentage point tariff advantage to build the cars in the UK rather than Japan, as the EU applies a 10% tariff. After Brexit there may be a tariff disadvantage if the UK becomes subject to EU tariffs. There will almost certainly be a supply chain disadvantage as Japan can support almost the entire supply chain without imports, while the UK can'tFrancisUrquhart said:
It is also kind of irrevelant to the Swindon plant. Swindon made civics go to the US. Turkish made ones go to the EU. Honda is shutting both plants and moving production back to japan.another_richard said:
From 10% falling to 5% and then falling to zero.Foxy said:
The tariff on imported Japanese cars to the EU is still at 5% in 2022.another_richard said:
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1097560475452297217?s=190 -
I thought Berger spoke very powerfully today, not just on antisemitism, but why she joined labour and what that it stood for.Jonathan said:Labour, condemned to the Corbyn of history. Disaster.
The irony the biggest serial rebel couldn’t tolerate dissent or other views. Didn’t call off the attack dogs. Drove his own MPs away.
Corbyn is not Labour.0 -
Seed potatoes to plant after chitting, I suspect. Very often packed in nets.rottenborough said:0 -
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Surely worth remembering that Jezza and co wanted rid of these 7 MP’s0
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I do wonder if Corbyn will actually whip Labour MPs to vote for a second referendum now, purely to stop more Labour MPs defecting.
It will of course all be for nothing, since regardless of what Labour MPs do there still won't be a majority in the Commons for it (though we'll no doubt hear all sorts of contorted arguments about how it's Corbyn's fault that Amber Rudd or Greg Clark once again didn't put their money where their "pro-EU" mouths were), but the whingers on the Labour benches will get their day of virtue-signalling, and one less lame excuse to jump ship.0 -
It cuts both ways, remember the pear clutching when Cameron forgot which football team he supports.dixiedean said:
Because political journalists are so out of touch that any interest outside politics is considered "weird", quirky or even downright suspicious.kle4 said:
I get the point they want to make, but I don't know why they've framed the story around that point rather than just focus on the crisis, the condemnations about antisemitism and such.dixiedean said:
They never fail to introduce Ken Clarke as jazz-loving, or Major as MCC member, etc.
The general public don't see it that way. Am reminded of the pearl clutching when Corbyn was photographed at an Arsenal game during the GE campaign. Regular people have interests and hobbies and don't think it controversial when politicians do.
0 -
He wanted them deselected and replaced, not voting against him in the lobbiesDonTsInferno_ said:Surely worth remembering that Jezza and co wanted rid of these 7 MP’s
0 -
This seems like a decent summary...cliff notes, it’s a bit of everything, trade deal, trump, diesel and brexit. And I guess why Turkish production is going back to Japan as well.Scott_P said:twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1097629287782514688
https://news.sky.com/story/japan-eu-trade-deal-likely-the-biggest-factor-in-honda-move-116412880 -
I think it would be hilarious if he did that. The defectors would not be welcomed back, it prevents most other potential defectors leaving, it's what the members want anyway, leaving only the anti-semitism stuff to justify any split, and sorry to say if that was going to do it on its own it would have some time ago.Danny565 said:I do wonder if Corbyn will actually whip Labour MPs to vote for a second referendum now, purely to stop more Labour MPs defecting.
It will of course all be for nothing, since regardless of what Labour MPs do there still won't be a majority in the Commons for it (though we'll no doubt hear all sorts of contorted arguments about how it's Corbyn's fault that Amber Rudd or Greg Clark once again didn't put their money where their "pro-EU" mouths were), but the whingers on the Labour benches will get their day of virtue-signalling, and one less lame excuse to jump ship.0 -
And, as a bonus, if they were to do this now, we'd have effectively no parliament again until after 29th of March, so no deal Brexit it would be, as Parliament wouldn't be able to vote anything else through, and May thanks to Gina Miller won't have the power to revoke A50 without an act of Parliament.Sean_F said:
Which is when most defectors will terminate their careers.justin124 said:
Not in procedural terms following the FTPA. It would simply mean an automatic Dissolution if 14 days elapse without an Affirmative Vote for another Government.Sean_F said:
If you vote May out, you have to be willing to put Corbyn in.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
They would have only been replaced at the next GE though wouldn’t they? Same as nowScott_P said:
He wanted them deselected and replaced, not voting against him in the lobbiesDonTsInferno_ said:Surely worth remembering that Jezza and co wanted rid of these 7 MP’s
0 -
Well they're not going to be voting against him in most votes I would have thought. On Brexit, sure, and a vote of no confidence in the government (not out of liking the government though). How much else do they actually disagree with him on? As a group?Scott_P said:
He wanted them deselected and replaced, not voting against him in the lobbiesDonTsInferno_ said:Surely worth remembering that Jezza and co wanted rid of these 7 MP’s
0 -
That's a solid argument.Black_Rook said:
It remains to be seen whether this issue will make a jot of difference. My guess is that it won't - at least, not beyond any (rather modest) impact that it's already had.MikeSmithson said:
I don't follow your reasoning. What it has done is exposed the Jew hate within the party and that is a huge electoral turnoff.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
The airwaves have been filled with repeated waves of stories about Labour's appalling record on antisemitism for many months now; this appears, insofar as one can trust anything at all that is indicated by the polls, to have made little difference.
I would venture to suggest that no more votes are going to be swung by further mention of this topic. I'd wager that an awful lot of people really don't give a shit one way or the other, and those who do have either already abandoned Labour in disgust, or are so hopelessly devoted to the party and/or in such deep denial about the extent of the problem that they're never going to switch sides under any circumstances.
My guess is that the principal driving factors in politics (in England and Wales at any rate; Scotland and Northern Ireland are rather different ecosystems) are still, for the time being, the Marmite-like quality of Mr Corbyn; entrenched hatred of the Tories (an accumulation of years of austerity Government and underlying cultural rejection of the party by a significant minority of the electorate); and an electoral map containing a relatively short supply of marginals and which handicaps Labour, especially since it can no longer call upon a large Scottish bloc to help top-up its numbers.
In essence, the race is on between the major parties to find new and more appealing leaders who can have a shot at winning a majority, and the big bonus prize for anybody who can do that is control of the rules under which the long-overdue next round of Parliamentary boundary reform will finally be enacted (assuming that the Government doesn't survive until 2022 and manage to get the current proposals through both Houses, which it yet might.)
The Spliterati are probably going nowhere, and Brexit only has the potential to cause serious upheaval to the party system if the betrayal narrative can become entrenched - which would require either BINO or Remain. May's Deal would probably put just enough distance between us and the EU to take much of the heat out of the topic.0
