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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This could be right – Corbyn blocking moves for a second refer

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  • Vince has woken up from his afternoon nap...

    https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1097538537094856709?s=21
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Evening.

    Well, I've had a lovely relaxing day riding trains, admiring fabulous mountain and coastal scenery and photographing medieval buildings.

    Did anything come of that Labour press conference or was it just a restatement that all 260-odd Labour MPs have no backbone?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

    I trust you are equally curious.
    I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.
    Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Labour, what a mess. Thanks Jezza.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

    I trust you are equally curious.
    I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.
    Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.
    What were the figures?
  • Jonathan said:

    Labour, what a mess. Thanks Jezza.

    Will you be supporting the tiggers?
  • I'll wondering if Chuka Can see a bounce in the polls?

    Because bouncing is what Tiggers do best.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Honda is the lead story on ITV News. One for SeanT
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    edited February 2019
    MaxPB said:

    I'm also less than impressed by this new party's set up to dodge oversight of donations and I'm extremely uneasy about the idea of a private company effectively controlling the votes of 6 MPs. The electoral commission needs to look into this ASAP.

    Russian funding of Brexit: ignored
    USA funding of ReasonUK and Turning Point UK: ignored
    Various lobbyists funding fact finding missions to sunny parts:ignored
    Lord Sainsbury's funding single-handed of the Libs: ignored
    Arron Banks's brexity thing being funded by that IOM fund manager:ignored
    Jacob ReesMogg's management of an Irish Trust fund: ignored
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,727
    Fishing said:

    I have often said that anyone putting themselves forward to be an MP has a bravery (or foolhardishness?) that I lack. They can get some fairly horrendous treatment from the public and press.

    Try standing for PM. Or POTUS ...
    Oh yes, I acknowledge that. Anyone in that sort of position must have the skin of a rhino.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    Sounds like the sort of dozy trick they would come up with.

    But another explanation is that spending time with leavers makes remaining sound more appealing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,727
    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    The critical remainers for Brexit caucus
  • I’d be interested to know how the TIGers think the international rules based order should be both “strengthened and reformed”, and how they see that sitting with their principle of subsidiarity.

    If this were a European centrist party stating that then it would be a euphemism for More Europe coupled with regionalisation.
  • Just when heavyweight boxing was getting interesting again...

    https://twitter.com/cmckennasport/status/1097482181323182081?s=21
  • On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?
    Only 73 could be elected but under the dHondt system you can put up a slate of candidates for each region to try to win as many seats as possible and have reserves in case any of your MEPs resigns or dies during their 5 year term, they never have Euro by-elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

    I trust you are equally curious.
    I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.
    Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.
    What were the figures?
    £19,070,566 to £13,436,241

    https://news.sky.com/story/investigations-launched-into-eu-referendum-spending-10779555
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?
    We only send 73 members to Europe, let's send the other 127 to the NHS?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
  • Vince has woken up from his afternoon nap...

    https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1097538537094856709?s=21

    Who’s that?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
  • Somebody has put a few quid in the bucket to get them started.

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1097544991897989120?s=21
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958

    Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    Sounds like the sort of dozy trick they would come up with.

    But another explanation is that spending time with leavers makes remaining sound more appealing.
    Very droll!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?
    Only 73 could be elected but under the dHondt system you can put up a slate of candidates for each region to try to win as many seats as possible and have reserves in case any of your MEPs resigns or dies during their 5 year term, they never have Euro by-elections.
    Yeah but its not 200, there are 73 'slots', even if you field a reserve for every single seat its 146 not 200. No party has 200 euro candidates
  • Margaret Thatcher, Tokyo 1982

    https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/105018

    I want to make clear that Japanese companies which invest in the United Kingdom are very welcome, and we believe we have much to offer them.

    — Politically, we are one of the most stable countries in Europe—a vital point for any investor.

    — We provide access, through our membership of the European Community to a market of 270 million people—and make no mistake about it, we shall continue to be a member of that Community.

    Unfortunately the EC no longer exists. If it did...then I'd bet we would still be members.
    Not only that but Japanese companies no longer need a location in Europe to access the European Market.

    Just as if we get a sane trade deal, which we will eventually, we won't need to be members of the Single Market to gain access to it. We hear all sorts of talk of a Canadian style FTA, why not a Japanese style FTA? If its good enough for Japanese car manufacturers to trade direct with Europe without European bases, why can't we?
  • Vince has woken up from his afternoon nap...

    https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1097538537094856709?s=21

    Who’s that?
    I believe he is the captain of a very small local bowls club or something.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

    I trust you are equally curious.
    I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.
    Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.
    What were the figures?
    £19,070,566 to £13,436,241

    https://news.sky.com/story/investigations-launched-into-eu-referendum-spending-10779555
    That's a bigger difference than I thought. Not good.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Vince has woken up from his afternoon nap...

    https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1097538537094856709?s=21

    Who’s that?
    Its Vince and the Stop Swinson express
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2019
    Why do people, when looking at the Conservative Party, constantly mention Allen, Soubry and Wollaston when (a) the only recent defectors have been Euroloons; and (b) when clearly asked it seems that various ERG types are ambivalent about the Conservatives if they do not bow to their wishes?

    There seems an excess of prejudice (and at times a whiff of misogyny) over actions.
  • Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    I followed a similar path. I was on the fence about Brexit, far from enthralled by the EU and open t a carefully reasoned path out. When I realised that Leave was going to campaign by whipping up xenophobia I opted for Remain.

    Leave advocates still seem to have no concept of how disgusting their behaviour was.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Tough call for the quisling neo liberal MSM this evening. Smear Brexit by leading with the Honda collapse or smear Brexit AND Labour by leading with the Sordid Seven?

    My money is staying firmly in my pocket.
  • MaxPB said:

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
    I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

    The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?
    Only 73 could be elected but under the dHondt system you can put up a slate of candidates for each region to try to win as many seats as possible and have reserves in case any of your MEPs resigns or dies during their 5 year term, they never have Euro by-elections.
    Yeah but its not 200, there are 73 'slots', even if you field a reserve for every single seat its 146 not 200. No party has 200 euro candidates
    Yeah I see what you mean, perhaps he meant that 200 people have already applied to be candidates, it's academic anyway as I can't see any way we will be holding those elections in the UK.
  • Fourth like the Independent Group.

    Oh, wait, there's the SNP too. Fifth.

    And the DUP. Sixth.
    There are more LD MP's.
    Seventh.
    ***BR pedantry alert!***

    Con 1st
    Lab 2nd
    SNP 3rd
    LD 4th
    DUP 5th
    Faux-SDP 6th or 6th=, depending on whether or not you count Sinn Fein. Not 7th.

    ***Pedantry ends***

    Another thing: Labour, counting in Newport West (both out of decency and on the assumption that they win the by-election) are down to 249 seats, having already shipped 13 MPs through various scandals, controversies and resignations. That's nearly half of their 2017 gains gone. 17 more losses sees them back to where they were after the 2015 result. This may no longer be inconceivable.
    We're going to need a decent pun name for this lot - SDP 2:Electric Boogaloo isn't going to cut it.
    The Spliterati?
    I will accept this.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,727

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
    Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Labour, what a mess. Thanks Jezza.

    Will you be supporting the tiggers?
    No, but they have my sympathy. I am looking at what a few others do.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    matt said:

    Why do people, when looking at the Conservative Party, constantly mention Allen, Soubry and Wollaston when (a) the only recent defectors have been Euroloons; and (b) when clearly asked it seems that various ERG types are ambivalent about the Conservatives if they do not bow to their wishes?

    There seems an excess of prejudice (and at times a whiff of misogyny) over actions.

    The most recent defections were actually from pro-European MEPs.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-conservatives/anti-brexit-meps-defect-from-conservatives-eu-group-idUKKCN1GC2V2
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Not leave the European Union?

    Or [channels Brexiteers] fund development of warehouses in Swindon to mitigate risks to JIT manufacture.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
    I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

    The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?
    It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

    Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DeClare said:

    DeClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?
    Only 73 could be elected but under the dHondt system you can put up a slate of candidates for each region to try to win as many seats as possible and have reserves in case any of your MEPs resigns or dies during their 5 year term, they never have Euro by-elections.
    Yeah but its not 200, there are 73 'slots', even if you field a reserve for every single seat its 146 not 200. No party has 200 euro candidates
    Yeah I see what you mean, perhaps he meant that 200 people have already applied to be candidates, it's academic anyway as I can't see any way we will be holding those elections in the UK.

    Agreed, we will be oot
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

    I trust you are equally curious.
    I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.
    Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.
    What were the figures?
    £19,070,566 to £13,436,241

    https://news.sky.com/story/investigations-launched-into-eu-referendum-spending-10779555
    That's a bigger difference than I thought. Not good.
    And I don't think that includes the mailshot by HMG, worth another £9mn.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Pulpstar said:

    How many take the ERG whip these days ? Are they bigger or smaller than the SNP.

    They have struggled to muster many other than talking hot air and fantasy figures. Also they are not a party.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958
    edited February 2019

    Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston's behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    I followed a similar path. I was on the fence about Brexit, far from enthralled by the EU and open t a carefully reasoned path out. When I realised that Leave was going to campaign by whipping up xenophobia I opted for Remain.

    Leave advocates still seem to have no concept of how disgusting their behaviour was.
    Wollaston wasn't on the fence, she was actively campaigning for Leave until she switched sides on the 8th of June, well after our alleged xenophobia had started. So no, you didn't follow a similar path to her at all.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    The big news today is that my coined moniker of Tiggers has been enthusiastically adopted, right here on PB. The correct styling is Tiggers, as in the plural of the famous Pooh character, and not TIGgers, nor any other awkward formulation.

    Bounce!
  • Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    I followed a similar path. I was on the fence about Brexit, far from enthralled by the EU and open t a carefully reasoned path out. When I realised that Leave was going to campaign by whipping up xenophobia I opted for Remain.

    Leave advocates still seem to have no concept of how disgusting their behaviour was.
    I voted remain in part because if George Galloway thought it was a good idea I knew it couldn’t be, despite being a Eurosceptic. (Or should that be “an Eurosceptic”?)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    The big news today is that my coined moniker of Tiggers has been enthusiastically adopted, right here on PB. The correct styling is Tiggers, as in the plural of the famous Pooh character, and not TIGgers, nor any other awkward formulation.

    Bounce!

    You know you will have made it if the currant bun and the mirror use it in their headlines tomorrow.
  • kinabalu said:

    Tough call for the quisling neo liberal MSM this evening. Smear Brexit by leading with the Honda collapse or smear Brexit AND Labour by leading with the Sordid Seven?

    My money is staying firmly in my pocket.

    I have TOP MEN working on decifering this post.

    Top.
    Men.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    _Anazina_ said:

    The big news today is that my coined moniker of Tiggers has been enthusiastically adopted, right here on PB. The correct styling is Tiggers, as in the plural of the famous Pooh character, and not TIGgers, nor any other awkward formulation.

    Bounce!

    You know you will have made it if the currant bun and the mirror use it.
    Sunil already won that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Fourth like the Independent Group.

    Oh, wait, there's the SNP too. Fifth.

    Idiot , you don't even know how many MP's each party has.
    Bang to rights over a flippant comment. I can only hold up my hands in shame.

    OTOH, I do know not to put a space before a comma or an apostrophe in "MPs", so there's that.
    Put on the big hat and go sit in the corner
    (full stop)

    To be honest I wish we had a party in England even halfway as competent as the SNP, but hey ho. I did display an SNP poster in my window at GE 2015 purely to troll the local Tories. Isabel Oakeshott tweeted a picture of it with the caption "Spotted in David Cameron's constituency" and the Cybernats of Twitter were delighted.
    Good for you , I was just having a bit of fun. Westminster is really F****d at present.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Evening all :)

    FPT:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As might be expected, an orchestrated campaign from the Right to denigrate and belittle the new grouping from the start (no surprise as this group has the potential to be a far greater threat to the Conservatives than Corbyn) while the Left goes more with the "sorrow than anger" tab.

    We also hear once again "rumours" and "reports" of "progress" between May and the EU - we've been here before of course and a lot of it may be supporters of the PM whistling as the clock counts down to Feb 27th.

    I just read your penultimate paragraph with utter astonishment. The attacks are coming from the hard left and as a conservative I have nothing but admiration for these mps who were clearly very emotional in their resignation speeches. The word blinkered springs to mind
    I don't conflate "Right" with "conservative" and I'm surprised you think I would.

    The "Right" is in this stance the likes of Guido and his ilk for whom a popular centrist party would be a hammer blow to the politics of confrontation from which they prosper.

    As a conservative, I imagine while you admire the principle of Chuka and the others, there may be a part of you that thinks the next GE is now in the bag with the potential for an Opposition vote split three ways a la 1983.

    An alternative approach would be to acknowledge that while a Conservative Government might always be preferable the reality is occasionally parties need time in Opposition to renew and if that means leaving office having a centrist Labour Government would be infinitely preferable to a Corbyn-led Government (that's a no-brainer). Indeed, for all the ordure heaped on Blair in later years over Iraq, the years 1997-2001 were pretty reasonable for many people and the fact of Labour's re-election, albeit on a very low turnout, reflected that.

    I think the winner from today is Emily Thornberry if she can thread the eye of the needle and take over Labour and pull it back to the centre.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    ydoethur said:

    Evening.

    Well, I've had a lovely relaxing day riding trains, admiring fabulous mountain and coastal scenery and photographing medieval buildings.

    Did anything come of that Labour press conference or was it just a restatement that all 260-odd Labour MPs have no backbone?

    Lucky you Ydoethur, I am waiting for my 3rd flight on way to Zagreb. Just had a crap dinner to boot.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour, what a mess. Thanks Jezza.

    Will you be supporting the tiggers?
    No, but they have my sympathy. I am looking at what a few others do.
    Technically, it’s not possible to ‘support’ them yet, at least not through the ballot box. I think it’s an interesting move though. I could see a movement getting going, if they can stagger defections and keep the momentum going.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    MaxPB said:

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
    I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

    The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?
    Because Japan were never part of the EU and have no land border with it, for two. And Brexit is an event which happens at a point in time. If at that point in time there is no deal, you have a no deal brexit. It's binary; "I am OK with no deal for now temporarily" is precisely synonymous with "I support no deal Brexit."
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
    Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?
    I think that's misremembering - certainly there's no IBM complex now and I don't recall one.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
    Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?
    Raychem? That's a blast from the past. I don't think I've heard about them in two decades. Are they still going?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?
    We only send 73 members to Europe, let's send the other 127 to the NHS?
    or Swindon, they will spend as much on expenses as Honda does on manufacturing.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

    I trust you are equally curious.
    I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.
    Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.
    What were the figures?
    £19,070,566 to £13,436,241

    https://news.sky.com/story/investigations-launched-into-eu-referendum-spending-10779555
    That's a bigger difference than I thought. Not good.
    And I don't think that includes the mailshot by HMG, worth another £9mn.
    Well nobody read the HMG mailshot, so it was a waste of money but not an offence against democracy.
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour, what a mess. Thanks Jezza.

    Will you be supporting the tiggers?
    No, but they have my sympathy. I am looking at what a few others do.
    Technically, it’s not possible to ‘support’ them yet, at least not through the ballot box. I think it’s an interesting move though. I could see a movement getting going, if they can stagger defections and keep the momentum going.
    That the key thing. If we see a drip drip over the next few days and weeks, it is really on like fat pats thong....otherwise the 7 join frank field and the convict, sexual harasser, et al in the wildness.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited February 2019

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
    Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?
    You are misremembering , Basingstoke and North Harbour were the main sites along with Hursley Lab
    All 3 Basingstoke offices are gone as has most of North Harbour, just a Datacentre left I think , Havant manufacturing plant went a long time ago.
    Only Hursley left and that because IBM Corp own it..
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    FPT:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As might be expected, an orchestrated campaign from the Right to denigrate and belittle the new grouping from the start (no surprise as this group has the potential to be a far greater threat to the Conservatives than Corbyn) while the Left goes more with the "sorrow than anger" tab.

    We also hear once again "rumours" and "reports" of "progress" between May and the EU - we've been here before of course and a lot of it may be supporters of the PM whistling as the clock counts down to Feb 27th.

    I just read your penultimate paragraph with utter astonishment. The attacks are coming from the hard left and as a conservative I have nothing but admiration for these mps who were clearly very emotional in their resignation speeches. The word blinkered springs to mind
    I don't conflate "Right" with "conservative" and I'm surprised you think I would.

    The "Right" is in this stance the likes of Guido and his ilk for whom a popular centrist party would be a hammer blow to the politics of confrontation from which they prosper.

    As a conservative, I imagine while you admire the principle of Chuka and the others, there may be a part of you that thinks the next GE is now in the bag with the potential for an Opposition vote split three ways a la 1983.

    An alternative approach would be to acknowledge that while a Conservative Government might always be preferable the reality is occasionally parties need time in Opposition to renew and if that means leaving office having a centrist Labour Government would be infinitely preferable to a Corbyn-led Government (that's a no-brainer). Indeed, for all the ordure heaped on Blair in later years over Iraq, the years 1997-2001 were pretty reasonable for many people and the fact of Labour's re-election, albeit on a very low turnout, reflected that.

    I think the winner from today is Emily Thornberry if she can thread the eye of the needle and take over Labour and pull it back to the centre.
    I do not think the next GE is in the bag but Corbyn being PM has become less likely thankfully
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    How can they field 200 candidates when we only have 70 something seats?
    That is what the Evening Standard have quoted the party's founder as saying, May be some are for the local elections the same month

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nigel-farages-brexit-party-may-relocate-after-malicious-trolling-on-tripadvisor-page-a4069371.html
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    MaxPB said:

    I'm also less than impressed by this new party's set up to dodge oversight of donations and I'm extremely uneasy about the idea of a private company effectively controlling the votes of 6 MPs. The electoral commission needs to look into this ASAP.

    It occurs to me that you do not know how politics is funded in GB (NI has different rules IIRC).so here's a primer. There are three ways you can validly fund politics:

    1) You fund the individual candidate
    2) You fund the individual party
    3) You fund the cause

    In each case you have to declare the donation if it's over a certain amount, and the declaration has to be lodged with the Electoral Commission by a certain time during an election campaign.

    In the past many, many wealthy individuals and corporate entities have donated, so I am surprised at your unease at the structure of this group. I assume it is more due to disdain of the people rather than the structure.

    Incidentally I have always found it amusing that two famous parties - the UK Conservative Party and the US Democratic Party - do not technically exist as single entities, being rather a loose association of constituency/state parties. IIRC the Cons are described as an "unincorporated association", which you could equally well use to describe a pub crawl... :)

    (The above was done from memory, so apols for the fuckups)


  • HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    How can they field 200 candidates when we only have 70 something seats?
    That is what the Evening Standard have quoted the party's founder as saying, May be some are for the local elections the same month

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nigel-farages-brexit-party-may-relocate-after-malicious-trolling-on-tripadvisor-page-a4069371.html
    I can only imagine what fruitcakes they have among them.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
    Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?
    Raychem? That's a blast from the past. I don't think I've heard about them in two decades. Are they still going?
    No. They became Tyco and then, I think, TE Connectivity. Still a token presence in Swindon but a fraction of what they once were.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Glad to see the back of the likes of Gapes, Leslie and Smith.

    Good to see Angela doing well as a spokesperson for them on their opening day as well, would have been a toss up between her and Gapes for me but I think she gave a pretty fair representation of the party.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    _Anazina_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be surprised if this private company thing isn’t just a “placeholder”. At the press conference, they didn’t even know if / when they would be a party, who would do what roles etc.

    But why not just register a political party?

    Plenty of spare addresses on the Finchley Road
    If you say that five times into a mirror he appears... :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited February 2019
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston's behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    I followed a similar path. I was on the fence about Brexit, far from enthralled by the EU and open t a carefully reasoned path out. When I realised that Leave was going to campaign by whipping up xenophobia I opted for Remain.

    Leave advocates still seem to have no concept of how disgusting their behaviour was.
    Wollaston wasn't on the fence, she was actively campaigning for Leave until she switched sides on the 8th of June, well after our alleged xenophobia had started. So no, you didn't follow a similar path to her at all.
    As I remember it it was when she realised the extent of the xenophobia.

    “You’re more likely to meet an EU citizen treating you than in the queue for the NHS”...
  • Glad to see the back of the likes of Gapes, Leslie and Smith.

    Good to see Angela doing well as a spokesperson for them on their opening day as well, would have been a toss up between her and Gapes for me but I think she gave a pretty fair representation of the party.

    Meanwhile LAB continues to be led by an anti-semite
  • Tom Watson, the deputy Labour leader, has said his party faces an even more severe split if it denounces the seven MPs who quit as traitors instead of addressing the reasons for their departure.

    In an emotional statement, Watson said he sometimes “no longer recognises” his own party, as he called on colleagues not to adopt the language of betrayal towards the seven who resigned on Monday.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/18/chuka-umunna-and-other-mps-set-to-quit-labour-party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    matt said:

    Why do people, when looking at the Conservative Party, constantly mention Allen, Soubry and Wollaston when (a) the only recent defectors have been Euroloons; and (b) when clearly asked it seems that various ERG types are ambivalent about the Conservatives if they do not bow to their wishes?

    It's because while all that may be true, the ERG are probably closer to the views of the general party membership than Allen, Soubrym Wollaston and Grieve.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Dunno if anyone posted already:
    https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUK/status/1097565159168499712


    Not sure if that points towards a total damp squib, or merely a lot more potentials to jump ship in the coming weeks (and a steady drip might be quite dangerous).
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    viewcode said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be surprised if this private company thing isn’t just a “placeholder”. At the press conference, they didn’t even know if / when they would be a party, who would do what roles etc.

    But why not just register a political party?

    Plenty of spare addresses on the Finchley Road
    If you say that five times into a mirror he appears... :)
    viewcode said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    I would be surprised if this private company thing isn’t just a “placeholder”. At the press conference, they didn’t even know if / when they would be a party, who would do what roles etc.

    But why not just register a political party?

    Plenty of spare addresses on the Finchley Road
    If you say that five times into a mirror he appears... :)
    😂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    At least one accusation that cannot be leveled at the Tiggers any longer is that they are careerist. Even if one assumes for some at least they had no prospects of continuing on in the long term, they still didn't have to take a stand like this, so well done them for that.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited February 2019
    https://twitter.com/Ominous23/status/1097540203529584640

    Only a matter of time surely, now the group has become institutionally racist not many supporters will want to be tarnished with the same brush.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Andrew said:

    Not sure if that points towards a total damp squib, or merely a lot more potentials to jump ship in the coming weeks (and a steady drip might be quite dangerous).

    There must be a lot of pressure of the Founding 7 now. Get things right and perhaps more join them, get it wrong and just make Corbyn stronger in his party. WOuldn't want that on my shoulders.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    GIN1138 said:

    Any more Labrexit news?

    Oh and have any of these "departing" Labour MPs granted their constituents a "People's Vote" in the form of a by election? :D

    Why should they? They were elected as individuals.
    Maybe because they were elected on a labour manifesto.

    A jeremy Corbyn labour manifesto.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Andrew said:

    Dunno if anyone posted already:
    https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUK/status/1097565159168499712


    Not sure if that points towards a total damp squib, or merely a lot more potentials to jump ship in the coming weeks (and a steady drip might be quite dangerous).

    Better the chaos you know?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
    I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

    The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?
    It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

    Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.
    If it takes 7 years, it takes 7 years. I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with being bound by the backstop forever, nor do I trust the EU not to bind us to it forever given how hard they have fought to bind us to it forever.

    Ultimately we had a unilateral 2 year exit from the EU itself. If we can't have a 2 year unilateral exit from the backstop then I don't think the EU are negotiating in good faith.
  • On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
    Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?
    Raychem? That's a blast from the past. I don't think I've heard about them in two decades. Are they still going?
    No. They became Tyco and then, I think, TE Connectivity. Still a token presence in Swindon but a fraction of what they once were.
    The main problem Swindon faces is that it is not close to other major centres of industry and 3,500 jobs is a lot. There will probably be another few thousand in the local supply chain. The plant is 10% of UK car production so it is not insignificant. There will be an impact on trade balance too.

    This is a big deal. Lets not minimise it.



  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Irrespective of the fact that the seven MPs don't have to hold by elections, do we think that they should anyway? I'd have thought that Chuka would have a decent chance of winning his seat at the very least, and it would give them more air time on the TV.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    GIN1138 said:

    Any more Labrexit news?

    Oh and have any of these "departing" Labour MPs granted their constituents a "People's Vote" in the form of a by election? :D

    Why should they? They were elected as individuals.
    Maybe because they were elected on a labour manifesto.

    A Jeremy Corbyn labour manifesto.
    We could go in circles all night with this. We all know legally people are elected as individuals We also know that most people vote for the brand, which is informed to some degree at least by a manifesto. Absent an obligation to resign if defecting is it a moral obligation to do so at least? Perhaps. But there's also no getting away from the question of how much leeway the individual has, particularly when the manifesto did not secure victory anyway and many things will have changed since then. How much is someone allowed to rebel before they should resign and spark a by-election so that someone who will follow a manifesto completely might get in?

    Personally I prefer people to resign if they defect, but nor do I think it is not shocking or disgraceful if people do not resign, and reference to the manifesto they were elected under is pretty unconvincing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199

    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

    Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

    How can they field 200 candidates when we only have 70 something seats?
    That is what the Evening Standard have quoted the party's founder as saying, May be some are for the local elections the same month

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nigel-farages-brexit-party-may-relocate-after-malicious-trolling-on-tripadvisor-page-a4069371.html
    I can only imagine what fruitcakes they have among them.
    Certainly some of those would be weeded out beforehand I imagine
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    tlg86 said:

    Irrespective of the fact that the seven MPs don't have to hold by elections, do we think that they should anyway? I'd have thought that Chuka would have a decent chance of winning his seat at the very least, and it would give them more air time on the TV.

    In general I'd say they probably should, but speaking practically it is just too risky for them and would probably ruin anything they set out to achieve, so I don't begrudge them sticking to their guns.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    Fenster said:

    On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

    Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

    Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

    It's odd to say the least.
    Wollaston's behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

    I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.
    I followed a similar path. I was on the fence about Brexit, far from enthralled by the EU and open t a carefully reasoned path out. When I realised that Leave was going to campaign by whipping up xenophobia I opted for Remain.

    Leave advocates still seem to have no concept of how disgusting their behaviour was.
    Wollaston wasn't on the fence, she was actively campaigning for Leave until she switched sides on the 8th of June, well after our alleged xenophobia had started. So no, you didn't follow a similar path to her at all.
    My guess is that while she thought a Remain win was a formality, she judged it astute to throw her hat in with leave and curry favour in her constituency. Then she realised it was a genuine contest and she was on the wrong side.

    Rather like Boris. Except for the bit about realising her mistake before it was too late.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited February 2019

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
    I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

    The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?
    It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

    Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.
    If it takes 7 years, it takes 7 years. I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with being bound by the backstop forever, nor do I trust the EU not to bind us to it forever given how hard they have fought to bind us to it forever.

    Ultimately we had a unilateral 2 year exit from the EU itself. If we can't have a 2 year unilateral exit from the backstop then I don't think the EU are negotiating in good faith.
    Ultimately the government could repeal the Withdrawal Agreement if they EU refused to negotiate in good faith.

    At which point we will have extended our trade reach from 4 countries to more like 40.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How many take the ERG whip these days ? Are they bigger or smaller than the SNP.

    They have struggled to muster many other than talking hot air and fantasy figures. Also they are not a party.
    Hot air and fantasy figures? Sounds like a party to me...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Irrespective of the fact that the seven MPs don't have to hold by elections, do we think that they should anyway? I'd have thought that Chuka would have a decent chance of winning his seat at the very least, and it would give them more air time on the TV.

    QTWAIN.

    We elect MPs not Parties and the cost to the taxpayer of holding a by-election is just a waste of money for what is essentially an ego trip. EDIT: Though if we do it should be like they often do in America and be held at next regular election (eg in May with locals if they're happening).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.
    Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?
    Raychem? That's a blast from the past. I don't think I've heard about them in two decades. Are they still going?
    No. They became Tyco and then, I think, TE Connectivity. Still a token presence in Swindon but a fraction of what they once were.
    The main problem Swindon faces is that it is not close to other major centres of industry and 3,500 jobs is a lot. There will probably be another few thousand in the local supply chain. The plant is 10% of UK car production so it is not insignificant. There will be an impact on trade balance too.

    This is a big deal. Lets not minimise it.



    Yes, it will be tough for Swindon, but they've gone through worse:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Works
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Andrew said:

    Dunno if anyone posted already:
    https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUK/status/1097565159168499712

    Not sure if that points towards a total damp squib, or merely a lot more potentials to jump ship in the coming weeks (and a steady drip might be quite dangerous).

    The point is the seven today aren't where Messrs Owen, Jenkins, Rodgers and Williams were this time thirty eight years ago. The seven are united only in their detestation of Corbyn and their anger at what the Labour Party has become under his leadership. As to commonality of policy I don't honestly know beyond Brexit. Where are they on economic policy for example?

    Those who felt unable to jump today (and the likelihood of a second larger wave IF Corbyn fails to back a second vote seems high) will force the group to organise and do some collective thinking. Are they social democrats or do they support key aspects of the Corbyn/McDonnell agenda ?

    Will we see any defections at local Government level? So far, I've not heard of any significant but if the new group is to mean anything beyond the constituencies of the seven (and even there) they will need activists and supporters.

    Just looking at Ilford South (next door to East Ham), Mike Gapes scraped home by 31,500 in 2017 and I don't imagine an electoral pact with the LDs (772 votes) or the Greens (542 votes) is really a huge concern.
  • Glad to see the back of the likes of Gapes, Leslie and Smith.

    Good to see Angela doing well as a spokesperson for them on their opening day as well, would have been a toss up between her and Gapes for me but I think she gave a pretty fair representation of the party.

    TBH I think you would be glad to see the back of about 80% of the current PLP.
  • Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.

    I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
  • Brexit? I'm not bothered about it. Stay. Leave. It doesn't matter. One thing Umunna is correct about is that politics is indeed broken. He's wrong if he thinks he is the fella to fix it, though.
    Brexit has at least bought chaos, at a time when we probably needed something seismic to bring about change.
    Labour-fucked.
    Tories-fucked.
    Only good can come from this.
  • Remind me what Tiggers stands for?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
    I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

    The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?
    It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

    Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.
    If it takes 7 years, it takes 7 years. I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with being bound by the backstop forever, nor do I trust the EU not to bind us to it forever given how hard they have fought to bind us to it forever.

    Ultimately we had a unilateral 2 year exit from the EU itself. If we can't have a 2 year unilateral exit from the backstop then I don't think the EU are negotiating in good faith.
    Ultimately the government could repeal the Withdrawal Agreement if they EU refused to negotiate in good faith.
    That's disputed under international law and could leave us a pariah state.

    No reason not to put a break clause into it if that is the attitude.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited February 2019

    Remind me what Tiggers stands for?

    The Independent Group ers
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Irrespective of the fact that the seven MPs don't have to hold by elections, do we think that they should anyway? I'd have thought that Chuka would have a decent chance of winning his seat at the very least, and it would give them more air time on the TV.

    QTWAIN.

    We elect MPs not Parties and the cost to the taxpayer of holding a by-election is just a waste of money for what is essentially an ego trip. EDIT: Though if we do it should be like they often do in America and be held at next regular election (eg in May with locals if they're happening).
    In a way there was a stronger argument against the Ukip MPs holding by-elections as it wasn't long until the GE. I know what you mean about cost, but I think that it would be forgivable in the circumstances.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

    Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.
    Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.
    I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

    The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?
    It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

    Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.
    If it takes 7 years, it takes 7 years. I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with being bound by the backstop forever, nor do I trust the EU not to bind us to it forever given how hard they have fought to bind us to it forever.

    Ultimately we had a unilateral 2 year exit from the EU itself. If we can't have a 2 year unilateral exit from the backstop then I don't think the EU are negotiating in good faith.
    Ultimately the government could repeal the Withdrawal Agreement if they EU refused to negotiate in good faith.
    That's disputed under international law and could leave us a pariah state.

    No reason not to put a break clause into it if that is the attitude.
    No it wouldn't, if the EU refused to negotiate in good faith they would be in breach of the treaty terms and we'd have grounds to walk away.
This discussion has been closed.