Indeed. You were warned Owen. Repeatedly. Time and time again, that this would happen if nothing was done about Jezza's 'leadership'.
It's the blind assumption that the potential voters for the new party would all otherwise have voted Labour that is so arrogant and complacent. .
Nothing new in that. Not to be too mean, but a certain ex Lab MP on here once referred to LDs voting LD as a betrayal in a theoretical by-election because it took votes which, of course, would only have gone Labour.
That gives a whole new meaning to "owning the Libs".
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Interviewees on the radio did not seem very supportive of the 7. Likely the same would be true in Salcombe and Bassingbourn if Wollaston and Allen jump ship.
They would more likely join the Lib Dems who could get them reelected in their constituencies Incidentally, Royston is not in Heidi Allen's patch.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Interviewees on the radio did not seem very supportive of the 7. Likely the same would be true in Salcombe and Bassingbourn if Wollaston and Allen jump ship.
They would more likely join the Lib Dems who could get them reelected in their constituencies Incidentally, Royston is not in Heidi Allen's patch.
Notice Royston corrected to Bassingbourn, which is correct.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Interviewees on the radio did not seem very supportive of the 7. Likely the same would be true in Salcombe and Bassingbourn if Wollaston and Allen jump ship.
They would more likely join the Lib Dems who could get them reelected in their constituencies Incidentally, Royston is not in Heidi Allen's patch.
Notice Royston corrected to Bassingbourn, which is correct.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Interviewees on the radio did not seem very supportive of the 7. Likely the same would be true in Salcombe and Bassingbourn if Wollaston and Allen jump ship.
They would more likely join the Lib Dems who could get them reelected in their constituencies Incidentally, Royston is not in Heidi Allen's patch.
Notice Royston corrected to Bassingbourn, which is correct.
So would Cambourne.
Shame I;m currently enjoying the wonders of Burnley ...
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
Derek Hatton is millionaire property speculator. I don't think low tax people have anything to worry about from him. At least Blair pretends to act in the public service. And he is a lot more in tune with the Labour Party on Brexit, compared with Corbyn whose policy is actually Tory.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
Derek Hatton is millionaire property speculator. I don't think low tax people have anything to worry about from him. At least Blair pretends to act in the public service. And he is a lot more in tune with the Labour Party on Brexit, compared with Corbyn whose policy is actually Tory.
I don’t really get Owen Jones’ reaction. He and his lot wanted moderates gone, so they (well, some) are gone. I don’t actually feel this group will make much of a difference to Labour’s chances next time. Most people don’t know who these MPs are and whatever people think of Corbyn many voters are not happy with the status quo, which seems is what this new group of MPs stand for.
If you repeatedly shout f off and join the Tories, then maybe they might. Or at least sit in the middle.
Owen should be delighted. The cleansing has begun and no need for deselection processes and tedious stuff like CLP votes.
On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?
Quiet probably nothing at all. The car industry is going to change radically as automation and electric vehicles transform the industry. I expect that we will see major companies go to the wall, much consolidation, and new entrants eating up market share. It's going to be a bit like what the microprocessor did to the computer industry, a lot of very large mainframe companies disappeared when they couldn't survive the transition.
I was having lunch in Italy today - my companion mentioned that Fiat’s sales were down 26% this year
(They have chunky diesel business)
With a high operating leverage business like auto that’s a killer
I don’t really get Owen Jones’ reaction. He and his lot wanted moderates gone, so they (well, some) are gone. I don’t actually feel this group will make much of a difference to Labour’s chances next time. Most people don’t know who these MPs are and whatever people think of Corbyn many voters are not happy with the status quo, which seems is what this new group of MPs stand for.
Whilst I don't feel "betrayed" or whatever by these MPs leaving, I don't get how people can be surprised at Owen Jones (and other Labour supporters) criticising the new party and countering some of their arguments.
Like....this is politics. The defectors have chosen to have the same status vis-a-vis Labour as the Tories, Greens, Lib Dems et al. -- they've chosen to be Labour's political opponents. So why would Labour supporters be treating them any differently than they treat other political opponents?
The big news today is that my coined moniker of Tiggers has been enthusiastically adopted, right here on PB. The correct styling is Tiggers, as in the plural of the famous Pooh character, and not TIGgers, nor any other awkward formulation.
Bounce!
The wonderful thing about Tiggers Is Tiggers are wonderful things.....
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Which safe seat will Hatton be parachuted into? Waverley I guess.
It's over. Labour is officially no longer Labour and anyone who thinks it is, is deluding themselves.
Penny for Kinnock's thoughts tonight.
The important thing is being not the Tories.
And while I don't like Corbyn, with the vast majority of MPs remaining including the vast majority of pre Corbyn ones, they must think Labour is still Labour.
Interviewees on the radio did not seem very supportive of the 7. Likely the same would be true in Salcombe and Bassingbourn if Wollaston and Allen jump ship.
I don’t really get Owen Jones’ reaction. He and his lot wanted moderates gone, so they (well, some) are gone. I don’t actually feel this group will make much of a difference to Labour’s chances next time. Most people don’t know who these MPs are and whatever people think of Corbyn many voters are not happy with the status quo, which seems is what this new group of MPs stand for.
Whilst I don't feel "betrayed" or whatever by these MPs leaving, I don't get how people can be surprised at Owen Jones (and other Labour supporters) criticising the new party and countering some of their arguments.
Like....this is politics. Why would Labour supporters be treating defectors with kid gloves, when they're (presumably) going to be standing against Labour in future elections?
Because ultimately they have the same vision of a fair and just society, no matter what Owen Jones might say.
Just without the agression, racism, dishonesty, and biggotry currently associated with the Labour Party.
I owe Theresa May an apology by the way. Absent a resignation before the end of the week she will indeed have been PM longer than Spencer Percival. Gordon Brown next in her sights.
I don’t really get Owen Jones’ reaction. He and his lot wanted moderates gone, so they (well, some) are gone. I don’t actually feel this group will make much of a difference to Labour’s chances next time. Most people don’t know who these MPs are and whatever people think of Corbyn many voters are not happy with the status quo, which seems is what this new group of MPs stand for.
Whilst I don't feel "betrayed" or whatever by these MPs leaving, I don't get how people can be surprised at Owen Jones (and other Labour supporters) criticising the new party and countering some of their arguments.
Like....this is politics. The defectors have chosen to have the same status vis-a-vis Labour as the Tories, Greens, Lib Dems et al. -- they've chosen to be Labour's political opponents. So why would Labour supporters be treating them any differently than they treat other political opponents?
It's a bit much to shout and scream and stamp their feet and say these people are traitors who should leave Labour - and then shout and scream and stamp their feet and say these people are destroying Labour's prospects of winning when they actually do what you ask.
It just makes them look stupid. Admittedly in the case of Owen Jones this isn't very hard as he is stupid.
I owe Theresa May an apology by the way. Absent a resignation before the end of the week she will indeed have been PM longer than Spencer Percival. Gordon Brown next in her sights.
Unfortunate phrasing given what happened to Perceval.
I don’t really get Owen Jones’ reaction. He and his lot wanted moderates gone, so they (well, some) are gone. I don’t actually feel this group will make much of a difference to Labour’s chances next time. Most people don’t know who these MPs are and whatever people think of Corbyn many voters are not happy with the status quo, which seems is what this new group of MPs stand for.
Whilst I don't feel "betrayed" or whatever by these MPs leaving, I don't get how people can be surprised at Owen Jones (and other Labour supporters) criticising the new party and countering some of their arguments.
Like....this is politics. Why would Labour supporters be treating defectors with kid gloves, when they're (presumably) going to be standing against Labour in future elections?
Because ultimately they have the same vision of a fair and just society, no matter what Owen Jones might say.
Just without the agression, racism, dishonesty, and biggotry currently associated with the Labour Party.
But, nonetheless, they've become Labour's opponents, through their own choice. The idea that they can make that choice, yet should still be entitled to special treatment from the organisation that they're going to be directly competing against, is bizarre.
(In fact, one could say there's similarities between them and diehard Brexiteers, who still think Britain should leave the EU AND that it's outrageous that the EU aren't agreeing to give us benefits of EU membership.)
Seems like a reasonable response to me - if the leadership has indeed been operating on the assumption that most remainers will go nowhere no matter what they do, and nor will most moderates, it may as well test that out properly. They might still be right.
7 MPs for Degsy? Who is in charge of the Labour Swap Shop?
I've got a Buckeroo. I'm looking for a Midlands MP.....
A multimillionaire property developer with a shady past, who made a vast fortune for himself while he racked up millions in debt for Liverpool and sacked all public sector workers by taxi as a publicity stunt.
Welcome to the world of Jeremy Corbyn. You have been warned.
I don’t really get Owen Jones’ reaction. He and his lot wanted moderates gone, so they (well, some) are gone. I don’t actually feel this group will make much of a difference to Labour’s chances next time. Most people don’t know who these MPs are and whatever people think of Corbyn many voters are not happy with the status quo, which seems is what this new group of MPs stand for.
Whilst I don't feel "betrayed" or whatever by these MPs leaving, I don't get how people can be surprised at Owen Jones (and other Labour supporters) criticising the new party and countering some of their arguments.
Like....this is politics. The defectors have chosen to have the same status vis-a-vis Labour as the Tories, Greens, Lib Dems et al. -- they've chosen to be Labour's political opponents. So why would Labour supporters be treating them any differently than they treat other political opponents?
Labour have been taken over by entryists. This is the beginning of an attempt to take the party back. Why should Corbyn and co feel betrayed?
Seems like a reasonable response to me - if the leadership has indeed been operating on the assumption that most remainers will go nowhere no matter what they do, and nor will most moderates, it may as well test that out properly. They might still be right.
7 MPs for Degsy? Who is in charge of the Labour Swap Shop?
I've got a Buckeroo. I'm looking for a Midlands MP.....
Can't help feeling splits and rumours of splits is yet more displacement activity by our political class. The fact is that it is 938 hours to Brexit, and we still don't have a bloody clue what our political situation will be, the tariff schedule we will trade on, or what the status of Northern Ireland will be.
Been on a break in Scotland for the last four days and not been following the news, have I missed anything?
Pineapple has been discovered on a pizza at a buffet for a Labour party fundraising event. Seven MPs have left the party in disgust and there could be more to follow.
The events of this morning have reinforced what I have been thinking for some time - that despite the cchaos that has been the government in recent times, Theresa May could end up in an unbelievably strong position in a couple of months.
Furthermore, as someone who believes that a deal is by far the best (or least worst) outcome, I feel that May is finally going about this the right way. I have tried to "war game" her strategy and have concluded the following:
1. Her ultimate goal is to put a deal to parliament with a compromise on the backstop. Thanks to the Brady amendment, she knows that this would have parliamentary backing and she is therefore able to tell the EU in clear terms what they need to do.
Agreed
2. As can be seen from the EU reaction to the prospect of No Deal in recent weeks, putting forward No Deal as the only alternative gives the EU incentive to negotiate in a collaborative manner.
Disagree. The EU thinks talk of No Deal lacks seriousness. They have less incentive to compromise, bit more.
3. Even in the event that she is unable to gain any kind of concession from the EU, the Spelman Amendment shows that there is a parliamentary majority against No Deal, so if she were to present any deal to parliament at the last minute with No Deal as the only alternative then she is also likely to win.
Possibly. The risk is that we crash out anyway, not least by misjudging the EU's willingness to compromise. It's quite a trick to go from the full on No Deal rhetoric to saying, we never meant it. Dangerous if you try think No Deal is bad.
4. While an extension to pass various bills may be required once a deal is agreed, an extension to negotiate a deal is both pointless (as we are only arguing one detail) and counterproductive, as unless she gets a full concession from the EU she needs the time pressure to get her deal through. Same answer as 3.
5. The above only works if No Deal is the alternative position. Removing No Deal removes all incentive for the EU to negotiate collaboratively and allows MPs hoping to remain to vote it down.
Disagree with the first part about the EU. Switching Remain MPs possibly.
6. If all of the above fails the EU is sure to grant an extension in order for both sides to avoid No Deal. I do not think for a minute that May is happy to allow No Deal to happen and may be forced down the referendum route.
Possible, but massively risky.
For those reasons, so long as she sticks to her negotiating principles, I expect a deal to be passed, which while flawed, is already seen as by far the least worst option in polls. A deal will, I expect, keep the tory party together while the labour party is hopelessly split.
reads like 'they left, I don't care about it but we're doing this' it isn't offering much to the supposed waverers who are waiting to see what happens with the PV motion
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?
MP for Watford - Junior Minister
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?
MP for Watford - Junior Minister
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?
MP for Watford - Junior Minister
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.
Well, if they are independents they can vote how they like. That's sort of the point.
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?
MP for Watford - Junior Minister
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.
It asks the question, for sure. If they all abstain, the government survives.
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?
MP for Watford - Junior Minister
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?
MP for Watford - Junior Minister
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.
It would be difficult for them not to vote for a No Confidence Motion. Labour could effectively call them Tory stooges were they to do otherwise. They would be in much the same position as the SNP who - in reality - have no choice.
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?
MP for Watford - Junior Minister
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.
It asks the question, for sure. If they all abstain, the government survives.
but politically could the ex-labour MPs consider propping up a Tory government (even if they are claiming to be outside the tribal politics).
on top of that most of the current seven would need to keep a substantial amount of their current vote to win at an election. one of the seats could easily go Tory with a vote split between TIG and Labour.
Comments
Minister: Rudd or Gauke?
MPs: Allen, Soubry, Woolaston, Grieve ?
Shame I;m currently enjoying the wonders of Burnley ...
It's all very Animal Farm.
However 2019 has remained steady at 2.7.
The move is 2020 in (to 4.5) and 2022 out (to 3.5).
All four possible years are now rated as having a significant chance - with 2021 the outsider at 7.4.
It is very confusing reading all these posts.., and @kle4 you should wash your mouth out with soap!
Owen should be delighted. The cleansing has begun and no need for deselection processes and tedious stuff like CLP votes.
(They have chunky diesel business)
With a high operating leverage business like auto that’s a killer
Like....this is politics. The defectors have chosen to have the same status vis-a-vis Labour as the Tories, Greens, Lib Dems et al. -- they've chosen to be Labour's political opponents. So why would Labour supporters be treating them any differently than they treat other political opponents?
Is Tiggers are wonderful things.....
They're Corbyn-bouncing
Corbyn-trouncing
Fun! Fun! Fun! Fun! Fun!
Just without the agression, racism, dishonesty, and biggotry currently associated with the Labour Party.
It just makes them look stupid. Admittedly in the case of Owen Jones this isn't very hard as he is stupid.
(In fact, one could say there's similarities between them and diehard Brexiteers, who still think Britain should leave the EU AND that it's outrageous that the EU aren't agreeing to give us benefits of EU membership.)
I've got a Buckeroo. I'm looking for a Midlands MP.....
Welcome to the world of Jeremy Corbyn. You have been warned.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-socialist-firebrand-derek-hatton-screwed-liverpool-just-as-much-as-margaret-thatcher-did-8575030.html
The fact is that it is 938 hours to Brexit, and we still don't have a bloody clue what our political situation will be, the tariff schedule we will trade on, or what the status of Northern Ireland will be.
Seven MPs have left the party in disgust and there could be more to follow.
Winners?
The A-Team?
Apex?
Excel?
The Good Guys?
We Hate Labour?
The events of this morning have reinforced what I have been thinking for some time - that despite the cchaos that has been the government in recent times, Theresa May could end up in an unbelievably strong position in a couple of months.
Furthermore, as someone who believes that a deal is by far the best (or least worst) outcome, I feel that May is finally going about this the right way. I have tried to "war game" her strategy and have concluded the following:
1. Her ultimate goal is to put a deal to parliament with a compromise on the backstop. Thanks to the Brady amendment, she knows that this would have parliamentary backing and she is therefore able to tell the EU in clear terms what they need to do.
Agreed
2. As can be seen from the EU reaction to the prospect of No Deal in recent weeks, putting forward No Deal as the only alternative gives the EU incentive to negotiate in a collaborative manner.
Disagree. The EU thinks talk of No Deal lacks seriousness. They have less incentive to compromise, bit more.
3. Even in the event that she is unable to gain any kind of concession from the EU, the Spelman Amendment shows that there is a parliamentary majority against No Deal, so if she were to present any deal to parliament at the last minute with No Deal as the only alternative then she is also likely to win.
Possibly. The risk is that we crash out anyway, not least by misjudging the EU's willingness to compromise. It's quite a trick to go from the full on No Deal rhetoric to saying, we never meant it. Dangerous if you try think No Deal is bad.
4. While an extension to pass various bills may be required once a deal is agreed, an extension to negotiate a deal is both pointless (as we are only arguing one detail) and counterproductive, as unless she gets a full concession from the EU she needs the time pressure to get her deal through.
Same answer as 3.
5. The above only works if No Deal is the alternative position. Removing No Deal removes all incentive for the EU to negotiate collaboratively and allows MPs hoping to remain to vote it down.
Disagree with the first part about the EU. Switching Remain MPs possibly.
6. If all of the above fails the EU is sure to grant an extension in order for both sides to avoid No Deal. I do not think for a minute that May is happy to allow No Deal to happen and may be forced down the referendum route.
Possible, but massively risky.
For those reasons, so long as she sticks to her negotiating principles, I expect a deal to be passed, which while flawed, is already seen as by far the least worst option in polls. A deal will, I expect, keep the tory party together while the labour party is hopelessly split.
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
Or would Terry Jones cause trouble?
That means we get a hammer the Tories press conference just after the hammer Labour one.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1097448030498971648
reads like 'they left, I don't care about it but we're doing this'
it isn't offering much to the supposed waverers who are waiting to see what happens with the PV motion
Although come to think of it that weakens the Game of Thrones analogy.
My guess is they would abstain.
on top of that most of the current seven would need to keep a substantial amount of their current vote to win at an election. one of the seats could easily go Tory with a vote split between TIG and Labour.