politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This could be right – Corbyn blocking moves for a second refer
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The ex-Lab MPs could vote No Confidence and the ex-Tory ones could abstain and the government would suvive . . . but it would give a bit of a lie to the idea they were united or that the old parties didn't matter anymore.spudgfsh said:
but politically could the ex-labour MPs consider propping up a Tory government (even if they are claiming to be outside the tribal politics).IanB2 said:
It asks the question, for sure. If they all abstain, the government survives.spudgfsh said:
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
on top of that most of the current seven would need to keep a substantial amount of their current vote to win at an election. one of the seats could easily go Tory with a vote split between TIG and Labour.0 -
Remember the LibDems have already said they won't support any more Labour VONCs until they sort out their position on Brexit and a people's vote.0
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They will anyway. And they can hardly vote in effect for Corbyn, a man they are openly calling a racist traitor, to be put to a national vote.justin124 said:
It would be difficult for them not to vote for a No Confidence Motion. Labour could effectively call them Tory stooges were they to do otherwise. They would be in much the same position as the SNP who - in reality - have no choice.spudgfsh said:
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
I think abstention would be the likely outcome - ironically however their mere existence makes it much less likely Corbyn will table a motion to start.0 -
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
Yes it really is that essay crisis point when cleaning out the kitchen cupboards becomes a priority.dixiedean said:Can't help feeling splits and rumours of splits is yet more displacement activity by our political class.
The fact is that it is 938 hours to Brexit, and we still don't have a bloody clue what our political situation will be, the tariff schedule we will trade on, or what the status of Northern Ireland will be.0 -
Full disclosure.
I enjoyed gluten free Hawaiian pizza on Saturday night.
And I look forward to repeating the experience in future.0 -
When you consider acts like these, it is clear that it is the Labour Party in the way of the broader left kicking the Tories out.Scott_P said:
It will take 15 years and someone firier and more ruthless than Kinnock to detoxify the Party. (Watson-Philips would be fun). In the meantime why not have a crack with a different party.
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Ban this sick filth.Freggles said:Full disclosure.
I enjoyed gluten free Hawaiian pizza on Saturday night.
And I look forward to repeating the experience in future.0 -
You think Labour could successfully dare them into voting for losing their jobs?justin124 said:
It would be difficult for them not to vote for a No Confidence Motion. Labour could effectively call them Tory stooges were they to do otherwise. They would be in much the same position as the SNP who - in reality - have no choice.spudgfsh said:
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
Unless they held the line with the Lib Dems of saying they'll abstain unless/until Corbyn commits to a second referendum. That would turn the table on Corbyn and put him under immense pressure.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...0 -
Evening again all
Fascinating to consider a few Conservatives set to join the new group and that would be a huge development taking it beyond the SDP which, although attracting some Conservative councillors and activists, never got beyond one MP.
The question now is the extent to which this new group can build any momentum in the next few weeks and the key events have to be around the vote next week. IF the WDA fails a second time and May is forced to pivot to No Deal, will we see a number of Cabinet resignations and defections? I suspect if the WDA gets through, there will be next to nothing from the Conservative side.0 -
@Philip_Thompson that sounds the most likely to me.0
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I don't think Cable quite said that. It was more on the lines that Corbyn could not 'count' on their support . Moreover last time it was academic because there was no serious prospect of the VNOC succeeding. It would be a rather different matter if the majority effectively disappears - though we might need to wait for the by elections at Newport West and Peterborough . Lady Hermon would also become critical.IanB2 said:Remember the LibDems have already said they won't support any more Labour VONCs until they sort out their position on Brexit and a people's vote.
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That has to be the worst ruling any supreme court has delivered since the Dred Scott case.MarqueeMark said:
Supreme Court ruled that Die Hard is a Christmas movie.TheScreamingEagles said:Been on a break in Scotland for the last four days and not been following the news, have I missed anything?
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Blake's 7solarflare said:Can't help but feel the Tiggers missed an opportunity to pick a name straight out of the first-episode-of-The-Apprentice school of shite names.
Winners?
The A-Team?
Apex?
Excel?
The Good Guys?
We Hate Labour?
Secret 7
7 seats for 7 defectors
The magnificent 7 (N.B. not many of them made it to the end of the movie!)
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However you look at it both the ex-tory members (I'm assuming that there will be some) and the ex-labour members will be in a really difficult position as it stands with the calling of a VoNC. Unless and until they start their new party they have to back a VoNC but would in most likelyhood lose their seats if they do.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
of course, we are getting mightily close to the deadline for calling an election and it happening before March 29th. If it turned out very messily then they'd not get a government in time to change legislation to extend Brexit0 -
I must admit, I hugely appreciate the bravery of Berger et al.
Today, as Brexit contributes to the destruction of our auto-industry; as Labour receives back the far left crook Derek Hatton; and as the media select committee demands an inquiry into Russian interference in recent elections...
It really is time to put country before career, and the people before party.0 -
Ha!
Derek Hatton is back in Labour0 -
Cable would be kingmaker if his votes became critical to a VONC. He would be mad to agree to a VONC without a clear and unequivocal commitment from Corbyn to a second referendum.justin124 said:
I don't think Cable quite said that. It was more on the lines that Corbyn could not 'count' on their support . Moreover last time it was academic because there was no serious prospect of the VNOC succeeding. It would be a rather different matter if the majority effectively disappears - though we might need to wait for the by elections at Newport West and Peterborough . Lady Hermon would also become critical.IanB2 said:Remember the LibDems have already said they won't support any more Labour VONCs until they sort out their position on Brexit and a people's vote.
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I am sure Nick Palmer will have a view on that. Personally I doubt that she would pick up Labour votes - even as a non-Tory. Little LibDem support to fall back on either.MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...0 -
I remember telling the young middle class hobby socialist in our family back at the start of this shambles, that Corbyn was a less intelligent version of Foot, and that this would end with a Labour party split.Pro_Rata said:
When you consider acts like these, it is clear that it is the Labour Party in the way of the broader left kicking the Tories out.Scott_P said:
It will take 15 years and someone firier and more ruthless than Kinnock to detoxify the Party. (Watson-Philips would be fun). In the meantime why not have a crack with a different party.
Watson is clearly keeping his powder dry, but I hope he's got the gumption to take this on.
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Why? If she splits the Tory vote she'd need a lot of Labour voters to back her.MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...0 -
I find Soubry repellent. She's hectoring, lecturing and personally acidic.Philip_Thompson said:
Why? If she splits the Tory vote she'd need a lot of Labour voters to back her.MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...
If there's one person who could turn me right off the Tiggers it'd be her. I don't feel anything like the same way about the others even though they are all ex-Labour MPs.0 -
Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.Endillion said:
You think Labour could successfully dare them into voting for losing their jobs?justin124 said:
It would be difficult for them not to vote for a No Confidence Motion. Labour could effectively call them Tory stooges were they to do otherwise. They would be in much the same position as the SNP who - in reality - have no choice.spudgfsh said:
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
It's funny how less than 4.5 years ago we were having conversations on here trying to guess the next Tory MP to defect to UKIP. Now, it's to a new Centrist party.
How quickly the world turns.0 -
With Degsy back I suggest that the Independent Group go for a more radical name.
Sane Labour might make the point. Or Not Hamas.0 -
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.0 -
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".0 -
why would Umunna go anywhere else, it's a prime remain seat and he has name recognition. he'd be fighting an uphill battle anywhere else.Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
For Polling Day to be 28th March the election has to be called within the next 48 hours. Not going to happen!spudgfsh said:
However you look at it both the ex-tory members (I'm assuming that there will be some) and the ex-labour members will be in a really difficult position as it stands with the calling of a VoNC. Unless and until they start their new party they have to back a VoNC but would in most likelyhood lose their seats if they do.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
of course, we are getting mightily close to the deadline for calling an election and it happening before March 29th. If it turned out very messily then they'd not get a government in time to change legislation to extend Brexit0 -
If there's an unplanned election they may not have a choice...Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
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If you vote May out, you have to be willing to put Corbyn in.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
So its too late already. Even if polling day was 28th March, there's no chance of getting everything sorted by 11pm 29th March.justin124 said:
For Polling Day to be 28th March the election has to be called within the next 48 hours. Not going to happen!spudgfsh said:
However you look at it both the ex-tory members (I'm assuming that there will be some) and the ex-labour members will be in a really difficult position as it stands with the calling of a VoNC. Unless and until they start their new party they have to back a VoNC but would in most likelyhood lose their seats if they do.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.
of course, we are getting mightily close to the deadline for calling an election and it happening before March 29th. If it turned out very messily then they'd not get a government in time to change legislation to extend Brexit0 -
but it's a no-lose situation for Corbyn. call the VoNC and win, he gets an election. Call the VoNC and lose and the LDs and/or TIGs alienate the voters that they are after and it'd be an easy sell for the labour party.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".0 -
All they have to do (unless something large changes) is abstain and say they'll support the VoNC only if Labour commit to Ref2. Same as the LDs have said. Easy.justin124 said:
Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.Endillion said:
You think Labour could successfully dare them into voting for losing their jobs?justin124 said:
It would be difficult for them not to vote for a No Confidence Motion. Labour could effectively call them Tory stooges were they to do otherwise. They would be in much the same position as the SNP who - in reality - have no choice.spudgfsh said:
That does beg the question, if a number of Tories left and joined this new grouping how would they vote in a VoNC? Surely TIG are not ready for an election at this point.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
Would they alienate their voters?spudgfsh said:
but it's a no-lose situation for Corbyn. call the VoNC and win, he gets an election. Call the VoNC and lose and the LDs and/or TIGs alienate the voters that they are after and it'd be an easy sell for the labour party.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".
Or would Corbyn alienate his voters by appearing to be so in favour of Brexit he'd rather May be PM to implement Brexit than have a referendum?0 -
You think Soubry's got some huge personal vote ?MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...
Not according to her previous election results she hasn't.0 -
Corbyn believes - rightly in my view - that the public at large does not share the Brexit obsession of the LibDems, ERG and the commentariat. Refusing to bow to such pressure might go down well.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".0 -
In any case, that error bar is, shall we say, large enough to render the analysis meaninglessGallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
And which seats would they be ?Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
It might. Or going against what reportedly 80% of his own voters want might actually backfire.justin124 said:
Corbyn believes - rightly in my view - that the public at large does not share the Brexit obsession of the LibDems, ERG and the commentariat. Refusing to bow to such pressure might go down well.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".0 -
That's interesting actually. If they want new seats, one easy way to justify switching is if the boundaries change. Could this be seven more votes in favour of that?GIN1138 said:
If there's an unplanned election they may not have a choice...Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
Not in procedural terms following the FTPA. It would simply mean an automatic Dissolution if 14 days elapse without an Affirmative Vote for another Government.Sean_F said:
If you vote May out, you have to be willing to put Corbyn in.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
Edit. Car manufacturers ARE driving Brexit outcomes. But Japanese car manufacturers, not German ones, and not in the way Brexiteers expected.0 -
Why would any of them go to a new seat? Leaving behind their activists, their local knowledge.... It makes no sense.spudgfsh said:
why would Umunna go anywhere else, it's a prime remain seat and he has name recognition. he'd be fighting an uphill battle anywhere else.Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
On more mundane socioeconomic matters an explanation for why the Conservatives are struggling among the under 35s:
' Britain’s increasingly unaffordable housing market has delayed the age when most adults become homeowners by at least eight years since 1997, according to official figures.
Among one of several signals that young adults are being forced to wait until much later in life to reach key milestones, the Office for National Statistics said it took until the age of 34 for more than half of the population to own their own home, compared to 26 in 1997.
Average house prices in Britain have skyrocketed by more than 270% over the past two decades – with a significant acceleration for property values since the financial crisis a decade ago – pushing homes out of reach for growing numbers of people.
The ONS study revealed that the average age by which more than 50% of the population lived in a home they owned had been 28 as recently as 2007, meaning the bulk of the shift since 1997 has taken place in the past decade. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/feb/18/uk-house-prices-raised-age-of-ownership-by-eight-years-since-19970 -
Marginals is what I saw in a tweet. Not quite sure how those marginals would be defined tho'...another_richard said:
And which seats would they be ?Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
But her public profile now is astronomical.another_richard said:
You think Soubry's got some huge personal vote ?MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...
Not according to her previous election results she hasn't.0 -
I don't detect that voters are desperate for a GE or even think it would be a good idea. I doubt most people would care.spudgfsh said:
but it's a no-lose situation for Corbyn. call the VoNC and win, he gets an election. Call the VoNC and lose and the LDs and/or TIGs alienate the voters that they are after and it'd be an easy sell for the labour party.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".0 -
The 80% dislike Brexit, but they like the rest of what Corbyn offers.Philip_Thompson said:
It might. Or going against what reportedly 80% of his own voters want might actually backfire.justin124 said:
Corbyn believes - rightly in my view - that the public at large does not share the Brexit obsession of the LibDems, ERG and the commentariat. Refusing to bow to such pressure might go down well.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".0 -
MPs who have resigned from their parties since GE2017 or are currently suspended - latest score:Casino_Royale said:It's funny how less than 4.5 years ago we were having conversations on here trying to guess the next Tory MP to defect to UKIP. Now, it's to a new Centrist party.
How quickly the world turns.
Labour 13, Conservative 00 -
Yes. Those saying 'Hah! It's about the new trade and nothing to do with Brexit' are rather missing the elephant in the room.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
0 -
Depends which of them you are.MarqueeMark said:
Why would any of them go to a new seat? Leaving behind their activists, their local knowledge.... It makes no sense.spudgfsh said:
why would Umunna go anywhere else, it's a prime remain seat and he has name recognition. he'd be fighting an uphill battle anywhere else.Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/10976118795922186290 -
Building ICE cars is a bit 20th century. Like bemoaning the loss of coal mining.0
-
But weren't all the Tory ones pardoned to save Theresa's from the VONC?Black_Rook said:
MPs who have resigned from their parties since GE2017 or are currently suspended - latest score:Casino_Royale said:It's funny how less than 4.5 years ago we were having conversations on here trying to guess the next Tory MP to defect to UKIP. Now, it's to a new Centrist party.
How quickly the world turns.
Labour 13, Conservative 00 -
Which is when most defectors will terminate their careers.justin124 said:
Not in procedural terms following the FTPA. It would simply mean an automatic Dissolution if 14 days elapse without an Affirmative Vote for another Government.Sean_F said:
If you vote May out, you have to be willing to put Corbyn in.justin124 said:
But they would have crossed the floor and joined the Opposition parties. Their credibility would be shot through were they seen to prop up the Tories.Foxy said:
Not sure that Tory independents would vote No Confidence, as they would be pretty likely to lose their seats in any GE.justin124 said:
I meant defect to The Independent Group - which is something of a contradiction in terms! If it happens, I imagine they would in future sit on the Opposition Benches - and we would be getting close to the point where the DUP no longer held the balance.ydoethur said:
By 'defect' you must mean 'resign the whip and sit as independents,' because to defect there would have to be a party they are joining.justin124 said:
Maybe so - though according to the Telegraph four other Tory MPs are poised to defect.ydoethur said:
More 'what MP?' than 'MP for Watford' as far as I am concerned I fear.justin124 said:
MP for Watford - Junior Ministerydoethur said:
The only Harrington I know is a professional golfer, and I don't think you mean him given he's Irish. Who are you talking about?justin124 said:
This group need a big name defection or they're screwed, but I don't see them getting it from either side.0 -
LD 1. And it was Tory 2 until they got quickly shipped back in to help with the VONCBlack_Rook said:
MPs who have resigned from their parties since GE2017 or are currently suspended - latest score:Casino_Royale said:It's funny how less than 4.5 years ago we were having conversations on here trying to guess the next Tory MP to defect to UKIP. Now, it's to a new Centrist party.
How quickly the world turns.
Labour 13, Conservative 00 -
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.0 -
-
Some do, some don't.Sean_F said:
The 80% dislike Brexit, but they like the rest of what Corbyn offers.Philip_Thompson said:
It might. Or going against what reportedly 80% of his own voters want might actually backfire.justin124 said:
Corbyn believes - rightly in my view - that the public at large does not share the Brexit obsession of the LibDems, ERG and the commentariat. Refusing to bow to such pressure might go down well.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".
The hard left will love Corbyn come what may.
The centre left are already in no small part Corbyn sceptical but see him as better than the Tories. Especially better than Brexit Tories.
Corbyn coming down firmly for Brexit could push more Center Left voters to look at alternatives like the Tiggers.0 -
-
The big rise in house prices ended in 2008, outside Greater London. Rates of home ownership have started to rise again, among younger people.another_richard said:On more mundane socioeconomic matters an explanation for why the Conservatives are struggling among the under 35s:
' Britain’s increasingly unaffordable housing market has delayed the age when most adults become homeowners by at least eight years since 1997, according to official figures.
Among one of several signals that young adults are being forced to wait until much later in life to reach key milestones, the Office for National Statistics said it took until the age of 34 for more than half of the population to own their own home, compared to 26 in 1997.
Average house prices in Britain have skyrocketed by more than 270% over the past two decades – with a significant acceleration for property values since the financial crisis a decade ago – pushing homes out of reach for growing numbers of people.
The ONS study revealed that the average age by which more than 50% of the population lived in a home they owned had been 28 as recently as 2007, meaning the bulk of the shift since 1997 has taken place in the past decade. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/feb/18/uk-house-prices-raised-age-of-ownership-by-eight-years-since-19970 -
Which is not necessarily a good thing.PClipp said:
But her public profile now is astronomical.another_richard said:
You think Soubry's got some huge personal vote ?MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...
Not according to her previous election results she hasn't.
Lots of MPs have boosted their public profile and regretted it.
Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler for example.0 -
The UK could block the deal as a member, as it has several other deals, notably India. Negotiations were in the deep freeze until Trump came along and galvanised the two sides into action.another_richard said:
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.0 -
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).0 -
-
Surely 'splits'Scott_P said:0 -
Next one he analysed is Penis Townbigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).
Angela Smith 5% She has lost the funny tinge vote
Con Gain 51% to Lab 49%0 -
The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/0 -
Crewe ?Theuniondivvie said:
Marginals is what I saw in a tweet. Not quite sure how those marginals would be defined tho'...another_richard said:
And which seats would they be ?Gallowgate said:
The rumours suggested they would contest different seats, not necessarily their current ones?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Dudley North ?
Newcastle under Lyme ?
Southampton Itchen ?
Not quite their territory I expect.
Barrow is highly marginal so they could stand there against Corbyn Labour and Woodcock Labour.
If they get any Scottish recruits and somehow manage to get SLD to stand down then Fife NE perhaps, but I wouldn't fancy their chances in Glasgow E or Glasgow NE.0 -
Who he?another_richard said:
Which is not necessarily a good thing.PClipp said:
But her public profile now is astronomical.another_richard said:
You think Soubry's got some huge personal vote ?MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...
Not according to her previous election results she hasn't.
Lots of MPs have boosted their public profile and regretted it.
Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler for example.0 -
"Astronomical" may be slightly over-egging the pudding.PClipp said:
But her public profile now is astronomical.another_richard said:
You think Soubry's got some huge personal vote ?MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...
Not according to her previous election results she hasn't.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of the total electorate recognises any one of a number of prominent sitting MPs, if you were just to survey a load of people picked at random in the street and ask them to put names to a series of photos.
I reckon that you'd see high levels of recognition for May, Corbyn and BoJo, and probably a decent amount for a handful of senior Cabinet and shadow ministers. After that, numbers would fall of the edge of a cliff.
Only a small minority of the electorate follows politics keenly. Most people have nothing more than a very vague notion of what's going on; many have little knowledge of and no interest in any of it. If Soubry polled 20% in a survey such as that suggested above then I think she'd be doing very well.0 -
Gosh, let's hope she tries.MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...0 -
Rings true with me, I've given up on trying to buy my own house. You have to practically be a millionaire round here to afford even a small property, and this isn't the south-east or London.another_richard said:On more mundane socioeconomic matters an explanation for why the Conservatives are struggling among the under 35s:
' Britain’s increasingly unaffordable housing market has delayed the age when most adults become homeowners by at least eight years since 1997, according to official figures.
Among one of several signals that young adults are being forced to wait until much later in life to reach key milestones, the Office for National Statistics said it took until the age of 34 for more than half of the population to own their own home, compared to 26 in 1997.
Average house prices in Britain have skyrocketed by more than 270% over the past two decades – with a significant acceleration for property values since the financial crisis a decade ago – pushing homes out of reach for growing numbers of people.
The ONS study revealed that the average age by which more than 50% of the population lived in a home they owned had been 28 as recently as 2007, meaning the bulk of the shift since 1997 has taken place in the past decade. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/feb/18/uk-house-prices-raised-age-of-ownership-by-eight-years-since-19970 -
So pretty flaky, then. It would be better to try and map out the appeal of the new party (not easy until it becomes better defined) and then use demographic modelling to try and estimate its support in each area. When it comes down to it the individual MP, with a few high profile exceptions, won't matter very much.bigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).0 -
Corbyn and McDonnell and McClusky look old and stale and I think they know it. Whether the gang of seven succeeds or not Labour looks to be in terminal decline. They need some new faces0
-
The tariff on imported Japanese cars to the EU is still at 5% in 2022.another_richard said:
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1097560475452297217?s=190 -
To you they do, but to under 35 they are some how seen as cool and hip.Roger said:Corbyn and McDonnell and McClusky look old and stale and I think they know it. Whether the gang of seven succeeds or not Labour looks to be in terminal decline unless they give themselves a new face
0 -
Are you still in Lichfield ?AndyJS said:
Rings true with me, I've given up on trying to buy my own house. You have to practically be a millionaire round here to afford even a small property, and this isn't the south-east or London.another_richard said:On more mundane socioeconomic matters an explanation for why the Conservatives are struggling among the under 35s:
' Britain’s increasingly unaffordable housing market has delayed the age when most adults become homeowners by at least eight years since 1997, according to official figures.
Among one of several signals that young adults are being forced to wait until much later in life to reach key milestones, the Office for National Statistics said it took until the age of 34 for more than half of the population to own their own home, compared to 26 in 1997.
Average house prices in Britain have skyrocketed by more than 270% over the past two decades – with a significant acceleration for property values since the financial crisis a decade ago – pushing homes out of reach for growing numbers of people.
The ONS study revealed that the average age by which more than 50% of the population lived in a home they owned had been 28 as recently as 2007, meaning the bulk of the shift since 1997 has taken place in the past decade. '
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/feb/18/uk-house-prices-raised-age-of-ownership-by-eight-years-since-1997
If so is it really that much more expensive than the rest of Staffordshire even accounting for it being a pretty Cathedral town.0 -
Corbyn, what a catastrophic, divisive disaster for Labour.0
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Errrhhh the civic made in Swindon don’t go to the EU, they go to the US. it’s the ones made in turkey that do.Foxy said:
The tariff on imported Japanese cars to the EU is still at 5% in 2022.another_richard said:
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.
twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1097560475452297217?s=190 -
I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.0
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6HWNzzR070Benpointer said:
Who he?another_richard said:
Which is not necessarily a good thing.PClipp said:
But her public profile now is astronomical.another_richard said:
You think Soubry's got some huge personal vote ?MikeSmithson said:
Doubt it. She'll hold it under whatever flag she stands.justin124 said:
Doubtless she would take a chunk of the Tory vote with her - but probably hand the seat back to Labour._Anazina_ said:
It’s a fairly liberal seat with pockets of wealth in the west Nottingham suburbs, around Nottingham University. Fairly decent Tigger territory perhaps?justin124 said:
Heidi Allen might have some chance - but cannot see Anna Soubry holding Broxtowe as a non-Tory._Anazina_ said:
I think a headline Tory Tigger defection is an important next step. Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry in one move could work well. And both MPs would have a decent chance of holding their seats in a future GE I think.El_Capitano said:
If it were possible to join the Co-operative Party and vote for Co-operative MPs without supporting Labour, I'd be on it like a flash.RochdalePioneers said:Sad to see 4 members of my party resigning today.
I get they wanted to bin off Labour. But what has the Co-op Party done?
Meanwhile, the Telegraph story about possible Conservative defectors to the TIGgers is interesting, coupled with the observation that Anna Soubry has dropped "lifelong one-nation Tory" from her Twitter bio...
Not according to her previous election results she hasn't.
Lots of MPs have boosted their public profile and regretted it.
Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler for example.
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Introducing your exciting new Labour PPC for the constituency of Streatham: Shameless Shamima!Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/0 -
Well wouldn’t be the first time jezza has helped an ISIS sympathiser.Black_Rook said:
Introducing your exciting new Labour PPC for the constituency of Streatham: Shameless Shamima!Tykejohnno said:The poor little isis bride Shamima Begum is so misunderstood -
KILLER NAME ISIS bride Shamima Begum names baby son Jarrah ‘after barbaric jihadi warlord who massacred Jews’ at the request of her terrorist husband
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8450050/shamima-begum-isis-named-baby-jarrah-husband/0 -
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The knock on effects of Honda are going to be huge. I wonder how Johnson Gove and Rees Mogg are going to explain themselves?0
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That's 105% without any other parties.bigjohnowls said:
Next one he analysed is Penis Townbigjohnowls said:
326 saysIanB2 said:
Based on what?spudgfsh said:as I said I can't see any of them keeping their seats in an election.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1097611879592218629
Aside from the obvious too early to say.
To determine expected vote shares for each MP, I have analysed electoral histories of defecting MPs since the original Gang of Four, and have calculated that the former party expects to retain 85% of their vote (large STDEV of 18%) and 15% is added to the MP's new party xShare
I also sought to come up with a measure of the popularity of the MPs with their constituents, so I compared electoral performances of each MP against how other Labour MPs fared in demographically/electorally similar constituencies (an imperfect measure, but the best we have).
Angela Smith 5% She has lost the funny tinge vote
Con Gain 51% to Lab 49%0 -
I don't like to play down Jezza's achievements but when the competition is the Tories and now a party that is 1/7th Mike Gapes it doesn't take a lot of work...FrancisUrquhart said:
To you they do, but to under 35 they are some how seen as cool and hip.Roger said:Corbyn and McDonnell and McClusky look old and stale and I think they know it. Whether the gang of seven succeeds or not Labour looks to be in terminal decline unless they give themselves a new face
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Depends what Honda say tomorrow.Roger said:The knock on effects of Honda are going to be huge. I wonder how Johnson Gove and Rees Mogg are going to explain themselves?
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From 10% falling to 5% and then falling to zero.Foxy said:
The tariff on imported Japanese cars to the EU is still at 5% in 2022.another_richard said:
Which is an indication of how free trade deals can damage certain countries.FF43 said:Not good for the UK, but the EU/Japan FTA is win/win for both the EU and Japan. The EU has to take more cars from Japan and can sell more other stuff to Japan in return. Car production in former EU is shut down, but the UK is not party to the deal and it doesn't much affect anyone else.
As the EU-Japan negotiation has been ongoing for I think seven years it seems the EU was unconcerned about shutting down Japanese owned car plants in the EU as long as they were in certain parts of the EU.
https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1097560475452297217?s=190 -
Yes, in an age of starkly apparent inequality, most people do like the sound of redistributive policies.Sean_F said:
The 80% dislike Brexit, but they like the rest of what Corbyn offers.Philip_Thompson said:
It might. Or going against what reportedly 80% of his own voters want might actually backfire.justin124 said:
Corbyn believes - rightly in my view - that the public at large does not share the Brexit obsession of the LibDems, ERG and the commentariat. Refusing to bow to such pressure might go down well.Philip_Thompson said:
Not if they manage to make it about Corbyn.justin124 said:Effectively they would be trapped. The moment they are seen to prop up the Tories any appeal they might have to left of centre voters would disappear. The LibDems could help them with the potency of the 'Tories Little Helpers' label.
Make Corbyn an offer he can't refuse - back a second referendum or we abstain. If he fails to do so they have a very easy get out of jail clause of saying "look Corbyn is still breaking his own parties policy, why is he afraid of the public".
In reality, the Lib Dem manifesto at GE2017 was much more redistributive than the Labour one. According to the IFS: "While the Liberal Democrat proposal would affect the highest-income half of adults, Labour’s proposal would only affect the highest-income 2%. But the revenue from Labour’s plans is vastly more uncertain, and highly likely to be lower than under the Liberal Democrats. Both the Liberal Democrats and Labour propose increases to benefits. But those proposed by the Liberal Democrats are much larger – reversing nearly all of the cuts planned for the next few years."
But Corbyn got the gains and Farron didn't. Turns out that people are more inclined to believe redistribution coming from a grizzled old socialist than from an evangelical running a party that just two years previously was propping up the Tories... whodatuhunkit.
It's not about liking what Corbyn offers. It's about liking how he offers it. If you think the "oh Jeremy Corbyn" halo will still be in place at the time of the next election, then by all means bet on him as the next Prime Minister. I'm not convinced it will be. I think we're seeing a steady tarnishing of that halo, and that when put up against potentially a new Conservative leader and a new Lib Dem/TIG/whatever leader, Corbyn may no longer be such an attractive choice. Corbyn vs May is a very different race than Corbyn vs Javid vs the Moran-Berger Alliance.0 -
You do realise that the Daily Mail attack Corbyn on an almost daily basis? This will change nothing.Luckyguy1983 said:I think these 7 have f****d it. Quite possibly saved Jeremy Corbyn. I mean The Daily Mail attacking Corbyn and his bags of potatoes? It could not look much worse if Tony Blair had appeared at their launch event.
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