politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This could be right – Corbyn blocking moves for a second refer

Vince has woken up from his afternoon nap...

https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1097538537094856709?s=21

Evening.

Well, I've had a lovely relaxing day riding trains, admiring fabulous mountain and coastal scenery and photographing medieval buildings.

Did anything come of that Labour press conference or was it just a restatement that all 260-odd Labour MPs have no backbone?

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

I trust you are equally curious.

I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.

Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.

What were the figures?

I'll wondering if Chuka Can see a bounce in the polls?

Because bouncing is what Tiggers do best.

Philip_Thompson said:

Fenster said:

On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

It's odd to say the least.

Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.

Fishing said:

JosiasJessop said:

I have often said that anyone putting themselves forward to be an MP has a bravery (or foolhardishness?) that I lack. They can get some fairly horrendous treatment from the public and press.

Try standing for PM. Or POTUS ...

Oh yes, I acknowledge that. Anyone in that sort of position must have the skin of a rhino.

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

I’d be interested to know how the TIGers think the international rules based order should be both “strengthened and reformed”, and how they see that sitting with their principle of subsidiarity.

If this were a European centrist party stating that then it would be a euphemism for More Europe coupled with regionalisation.

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.

Recidivist said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

I trust you are equally curious.

I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.

Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.

What were the figures?

£19,070,566 to £13,436,241

https://news.sky.com/story/investigations-launched-into-eu-referendum-spending-10779555

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.

Philip_Thompson said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.

Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.

Recidivist said:

Essexit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fenster said:

On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

It's odd to say the least.

Wollaston''s behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.

Sounds like the sort of dozy trick they would come up with.

But another explanation is that spending time with leavers makes remaining sound more appealing.

Very droll!

AnotherEngineer said:

williamglenn said:

Margaret Thatcher, Tokyo 1982

https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/105018

I want to make clear that Japanese companies which invest in the United Kingdom are very welcome, and we believe we have much to offer them.

— Politically, we are one of the most stable countries in Europe—a vital point for any investor.

— We provide access, through our membership of the European Community to a market of 270 million people—and make no mistake about it, we shall continue to be a member of that Community.

Unfortunately the EC no longer exists. If it did...then I'd bet we would still be members.

Not only that but Japanese companies no longer need a location in Europe to access the European Market.

Just as if we get a sane trade deal, which we will eventually, we won't need to be members of the Single Market to gain access to it. We hear all sorts of talk of a Canadian style FTA, why not a Japanese style FTA? If its good enough for Japanese car manufacturers to trade direct with Europe without European bases, why can't we?

RobD said:

Recidivist said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tonight’s irony: Leavers who have for three years resolutely refused to contemplate where Leave’s money came from are now getting agitated because they can’t immediately see where a brand new grouping is funded from.

I trust you are equally curious.

I’m curious in proportion to the money. So much more curious about where all that opaque money for Leave came from. I trust you are too.

Yes, I am quite interested in campaign funding. Especially how remain massively outspent leave.

What were the figures?

£19,070,566 to £13,436,241

https://news.sky.com/story/investigations-launched-into-eu-referendum-spending-10779555

That's a bigger difference than I thought. Not good.

Why do people, when looking at the Conservative Party, constantly mention Allen, Soubry and Wollaston when (a) the only recent defectors have been Euroloons; and (b) when clearly asked it seems that various ERG types are ambivalent about the Conservatives if they do not bow to their wishes?

There seems an excess of prejudice (and at times a whiff of misogyny) over actions.

Tough call for the quisling neo liberal MSM this evening. Smear Brexit by leading with the Honda collapse or smear Brexit AND Labour by leading with the Sordid Seven?

My money is staying firmly in my pocket.

dyedwoolie said:

DeClare said:

dyedwoolie said:

HYUFD said:

I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?

Only 73 could be elected but under the dHondt system you can put up a slate of candidates for each region to try to win as many seats as possible and have reserves in case any of your MEPs resigns or dies during their 5 year term, they never have Euro by-elections.

Yeah but its not 200, there are 73 'slots', even if you field a reserve for every single seat its 146 not 200. No party has 200 euro candidates

Yeah I see what you mean, perhaps he meant that 200 people have already applied to be candidates, it's academic anyway as I can't see any way we will be holding those elections in the UK.

ralphmalph said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.

Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?

matt said:

Why do people, when looking at the Conservative Party, constantly mention Allen, Soubry and Wollaston when (a) the only recent defectors have been Euroloons; and (b) when clearly asked it seems that various ERG types are ambivalent about the Conservatives if they do not bow to their wishes?

There seems an excess of prejudice (and at times a whiff of misogyny) over actions.

The most recent defections were actually from pro-European MEPs.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-conservatives/anti-brexit-meps-defect-from-conservatives-eu-group-idUKKCN1GC2V2

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.

Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.

I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?

It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.

DeClare said:

dyedwoolie said:

DeClare said:

dyedwoolie said:

HYUFD said:

I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?

Only 73 could be elected but under the dHondt system you can put up a slate of candidates for each region to try to win as many seats as possible and have reserves in case any of your MEPs resigns or dies during their 5 year term, they never have Euro by-elections.

Yeah but its not 200, there are 73 'slots', even if you field a reserve for every single seat its 146 not 200. No party has 200 euro candidates

Yeah I see what you mean, perhaps he meant that 200 people have already applied to be candidates, it's academic anyway as I can't see any way we will be holding those elections in the UK.

Agreed, we will be oot

Pulpstar said:

How many take the ERG whip these days ? Are they bigger or smaller than the SNP.

They have struggled to muster many other than talking hot air and fantasy figures. Also they are not a party.

The big news today is that my coined moniker of Tiggers has been enthusiastically adopted, right here on PB. The correct styling is Tiggers, as in the plural of the famous Pooh character, and not TIGgers, nor any other awkward formulation.

Bounce!

_Anazina_ said:

The big news today is that my coined moniker of Tiggers has been enthusiastically adopted, right here on PB. The correct styling is Tiggers, as in the plural of the famous Pooh character, and not TIGgers, nor any other awkward formulation.

Bounce!

You know you will have made it if the currant bun and the mirror use it in their headlines tomorrow.

FrancisUrquhart said:

_Anazina_ said:

The big news today is that my coined moniker of Tiggers has been enthusiastically adopted, right here on PB. The correct styling is Tiggers, as in the plural of the famous Pooh character, and not TIGgers, nor any other awkward formulation.

Bounce!

You know you will have made it if the currant bun and the mirror use it.

Sunil already won that.

Evening all

FPT:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As might be expected, an orchestrated campaign from the Right to denigrate and belittle the new grouping from the start (no surprise as this group has the potential to be a far greater threat to the Conservatives than Corbyn) while the Left goes more with the "sorrow than anger" tab.

We also hear once again "rumours" and "reports" of "progress" between May and the EU - we've been here before of course and a lot of it may be supporters of the PM whistling as the clock counts down to Feb 27th.

I just read your penultimate paragraph with utter astonishment. The attacks are coming from the hard left and as a conservative I have nothing but admiration for these mps who were clearly very emotional in their resignation speeches. The word blinkered springs to mind

I don't conflate "Right" with "conservative" and I'm surprised you think I would.

The "Right" is in this stance the likes of Guido and his ilk for whom a popular centrist party would be a hammer blow to the politics of confrontation from which they prosper.

As a conservative, I imagine while you admire the principle of Chuka and the others, there may be a part of you that thinks the next GE is now in the bag with the potential for an Opposition vote split three ways a la 1983.

An alternative approach would be to acknowledge that while a Conservative Government might always be preferable the reality is occasionally parties need time in Opposition to renew and if that means leaving office having a centrist Labour Government would be infinitely preferable to a Corbyn-led Government (that's a no-brainer). Indeed, for all the ordure heaped on Blair in later years over Iraq, the years 1997-2001 were pretty reasonable for many people and the fact of Labour's re-election, albeit on a very low turnout, reflected that.

I think the winner from today is Emily Thornberry if she can thread the eye of the needle and take over Labour and pull it back to the centre.

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jonathan said:

Labour, what a mess. Thanks Jezza.

Will you be supporting the tiggers?

No, but they have my sympathy. I am looking at what a few others do.

Technically, it’s not possible to ‘support’ them yet, at least not through the ballot box. I think it’s an interesting move though. I could see a movement getting going, if they can stagger defections and keep the momentum going.

JosiasJessop said:

ralphmalph said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.

Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?

I think that's misremembering - certainly there's no IBM complex now and I don't recall one.

kyf_100 said:

dyedwoolie said:

HYUFD said:

I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

We only send 73 members fo Europe, what are the other 127 candidates standing for?

We only send 73 members to Europe, let's send the other 127 to the NHS?

or Swindon, they will spend as much on expenses as Honda does on manufacturing.

_Anazina_ said:

Jonathan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jonathan said:

Labour, what a mess. Thanks Jezza.

Will you be supporting the tiggers?

No, but they have my sympathy. I am looking at what a few others do.

Technically, it’s not possible to ‘support’ them yet, at least not through the ballot box. I think it’s an interesting move though. I could see a movement getting going, if they can stagger defections and keep the momentum going.

That the key thing. If we see a drip drip over the next few days and weeks, it is really on like fat pats thong....otherwise the 7 join frank field and the convict, sexual harasser, et al in the wildness.

stodge said:

Evening all

FPT:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As might be expected, an orchestrated campaign from the Right to denigrate and belittle the new grouping from the start (no surprise as this group has the potential to be a far greater threat to the Conservatives than Corbyn) while the Left goes more with the "sorrow than anger" tab.

We also hear once again "rumours" and "reports" of "progress" between May and the EU - we've been here before of course and a lot of it may be supporters of the PM whistling as the clock counts down to Feb 27th.

I just read your penultimate paragraph with utter astonishment. The attacks are coming from the hard left and as a conservative I have nothing but admiration for these mps who were clearly very emotional in their resignation speeches. The word blinkered springs to mind

I don't conflate "Right" with "conservative" and I'm surprised you think I would.

The "Right" is in this stance the likes of Guido and his ilk for whom a popular centrist party would be a hammer blow to the politics of confrontation from which they prosper.

As a conservative, I imagine while you admire the principle of Chuka and the others, there may be a part of you that thinks the next GE is now in the bag with the potential for an Opposition vote split three ways a la 1983.

An alternative approach would be to acknowledge that while a Conservative Government might always be preferable the reality is occasionally parties need time in Opposition to renew and if that means leaving office having a centrist Labour Government would be infinitely preferable to a Corbyn-led Government (that's a no-brainer). Indeed, for all the ordure heaped on Blair in later years over Iraq, the years 1997-2001 were pretty reasonable for many people and the fact of Labour's re-election, albeit on a very low turnout, reflected that.

I think the winner from today is Emily Thornberry if she can thread the eye of the needle and take over Labour and pull it back to the centre.

I do not think the next GE is in the bag but Corbyn being PM has become less likely thankfully

MaxPB said:

I'm also less than impressed by this new party's set up to dodge oversight of donations and I'm extremely uneasy about the idea of a private company effectively controlling the votes of 6 MPs. The electoral commission needs to look into this ASAP.

It occurs to me that you do not know how politics is funded in GB (NI has different rules IIRC).so here's a primer. There are three ways you can validly fund politics:

1) You fund the individual candidate
2) You fund the individual party
3) You fund the cause

In each case you have to declare the donation if it's over a certain amount, and the declaration has to be lodged with the Electoral Commission by a certain time during an election campaign.

In the past many, many wealthy individuals and corporate entities have donated, so I am surprised at your unease at the structure of this group. I assume it is more due to disdain of the people rather than the structure.

Incidentally I have always found it amusing that two famous parties - the UK Conservative Party and the US Democratic Party - do not technically exist as single entities, being rather a loose association of constituency/state parties. IIRC the Cons are described as an "unincorporated association", which you could equally well use to describe a pub crawl...

(The above was done from memory, so apols for the fuckups)

Recidivist said:

JosiasJessop said:

ralphmalph said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.

Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?

Raychem? That's a blast from the past. I don't think I've heard about them in two decades. Are they still going?

No. They became Tyco and then, I think, TE Connectivity. Still a token presence in Swindon but a fraction of what they once were.

_Anazina_ said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I would be surprised if this private company thing isn’t just a “placeholder”. At the press conference, they didn’t even know if / when they would be a party, who would do what roles etc.

But why not just register a political party?

Plenty of spare addresses on the Finchley Road

If you say that five times into a mirror he appears...

TheJezziah said:

Glad to see the back of the likes of Gapes, Leslie and Smith.

Good to see Angela doing well as a spokesperson for them on their opening day as well, would have been a toss up between her and Gapes for me but I think she gave a pretty fair representation of the party.

Meanwhile LAB continues to be led by an anti-semite

matt said:

Why do people, when looking at the Conservative Party, constantly mention Allen, Soubry and Wollaston when (a) the only recent defectors have been Euroloons; and (b) when clearly asked it seems that various ERG types are ambivalent about the Conservatives if they do not bow to their wishes?

It's because while all that may be true, the ERG are probably closer to the views of the general party membership than Allen, Soubrym Wollaston and Grieve.

viewcode said:

_Anazina_ said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I would be surprised if this private company thing isn’t just a “placeholder”. At the press conference, they didn’t even know if / when they would be a party, who would do what roles etc.

But why not just register a political party?

Plenty of spare addresses on the Finchley Road

If you say that five times into a mirror he appears...

viewcode said:

_Anazina_ said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I would be surprised if this private company thing isn’t just a “placeholder”. At the press conference, they didn’t even know if / when they would be a party, who would do what roles etc.

But why not just register a political party?

Plenty of spare addresses on the Finchley Road

If you say that five times into a mirror he appears...

😂

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

Any more Labrexit news?

Oh and have any of these "departing" Labour MPs granted their constituents a "People's Vote" in the form of a by election?

Why should they? They were elected as individuals.

Maybe because they were elected on a labour manifesto.

A jeremy Corbyn labour manifesto.

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.

Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.

I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?

It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.

If it takes 7 years, it takes 7 years. I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with being bound by the backstop forever, nor do I trust the EU not to bind us to it forever given how hard they have fought to bind us to it forever.

Ultimately we had a unilateral 2 year exit from the EU itself. If we can't have a 2 year unilateral exit from the backstop then I don't think the EU are negotiating in good faith.

Irrespective of the fact that the seven MPs don't have to hold by elections, do we think that they should anyway? I'd have thought that Chuka would have a decent chance of winning his seat at the very least, and it would give them more air time on the TV.

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

Essexit said:

HYUFD said:

I think the new independent party could become a rallying point for 'People's Vote' backing Labour MPs and a few Tory diehard Remainers like Soubry, Wollaston and Grieve.

Of course if Article 50 is extended and we end up with BINO or even Brexit revoked that will boost Farage's new Brexit Party which is reportedly ready to field 200 candidates in the European Parliament elections if we are still in the EU in May

How can they field 200 candidates when we only have 70 something seats?

That is what the Evening Standard have quoted the party's founder as saying, May be some are for the local elections the same month

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nigel-farages-brexit-party-may-relocate-after-malicious-trolling-on-tripadvisor-page-a4069371.html

I can only imagine what fruitcakes they have among them.

Certainly some of those would be weeded out beforehand I imagine

Essexit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Essexit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fenster said:

On the subject of Sarah Woolsaton... didn't she begin the EU referendum campaign as an outspoken Brexiteer?

Indeed. Soubry was always a fierce Remainer who was on verge of crying live on TV at the prospect of Brexit.

Wollaston was a Brexiteer who supposedly switched sides because she didn't believe the £350mn for the NHS would be delivered and even after the government has pledged in full the £350mn for the NHS she has become an arch Remain zealot.

It's odd to say the least.

Wollaston's behaviour was a bit like a Labour MP declaring that because they didn't like Corbyn's leadership, they were not just leaving the party but becoming a diehard libertarian. Abandoning a party/campaign because you don't like its style is one thing, turning your alleged beliefs on their head quite another.

I'm not normally one for this sort of theory but one has to wonder if she was a Remainer all along and Cameron and Osborne asked her to join Vote Leave in order to defect at an opportune moment. It sounds nuts but it at least does at least explain some otherwise unexplainable behaviour.

I followed a similar path. I was on the fence about Brexit, far from enthralled by the EU and open t a carefully reasoned path out. When I realised that Leave was going to campaign by whipping up xenophobia I opted for Remain.

Leave advocates still seem to have no concept of how disgusting their behaviour was.

Wollaston wasn't on the fence, she was actively campaigning for Leave until she switched sides on the 8th of June, well after our alleged xenophobia had started. So no, you didn't follow a similar path to her at all.

My guess is that while she thought a Remain win was a formality, she judged it astute to throw her hat in with leave and curry favour in her constituency. Then she realised it was a genuine contest and she was on the wrong side.

Rather like Boris. Except for the bit about realising her mistake before it was too late.

malcolmg said:

Pulpstar said:

How many take the ERG whip these days ? Are they bigger or smaller than the SNP.

They have struggled to muster many other than talking hot air and fantasy figures. Also they are not a party.

Hot air and fantasy figures? Sounds like a party to me...

hamiltonace said:

El_Capitano said:

Recidivist said:

JosiasJessop said:

ralphmalph said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

In general Swindon will be fine. It has a good mix of office Jobs, Nationwide, Intel, etc and manufacturing BMW Pressing plant, Raychem, etc. It also has good transport links. Currently unemployment is half the national average.

Thanks. Am I misremembering, or did IBM have a massive office complex to the south of the city? If so, is that still there?

Raychem? That's a blast from the past. I don't think I've heard about them in two decades. Are they still going?

No. They became Tyco and then, I think, TE Connectivity. Still a token presence in Swindon but a fraction of what they once were.

The main problem Swindon faces is that it is not close to other major centres of industry and 3,500 jobs is a lot. There will probably be another few thousand in the local supply chain. The plant is 10% of UK car production so it is not insignificant. There will be an impact on trade balance too.

This is a big deal. Lets not minimise it.

Yes, it will be tough for Swindon, but they've gone through worse:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Works

TheJezziah said:

Glad to see the back of the likes of Gapes, Leslie and Smith.

Good to see Angela doing well as a spokesperson for them on their opening day as well, would have been a toss up between her and Gapes for me but I think she gave a pretty fair representation of the party.

TBH I think you would be glad to see the back of about 80% of the current PLP.

Brexit? I'm not bothered about it. Stay. Leave. It doesn't matter. One thing Umunna is correct about is that politics is indeed broken. He's wrong if he thinks he is the fella to fix it, though.
Brexit has at least bought chaos, at a time when we probably needed something seismic to bring about change.
Labour-fucked.
Tories-fucked.
Only good can come from this.

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JosiasJessop said:

On the other big news of the day, what can the government do to help the people at Honda and Swindon in general wrt the medium- and long-term future?

Maybe look into some sort of tax incentive to get new investors to look at next generation electric or other manufacturing there.

Tax incentives only make sense if there is the ability to export to large markets with low or no tariffs. Because of that complete c*** Liam Fox this won't be true for this country in April. We will go from having a potential market of ~700m with low or no tariffs to a market of ~100m with low or no tariffs. Tbh, I fail to understand why anyone would support no deal brexit.

I don't support no deal Brexit. I am OK with no deal for now temporarily until we can get a mutually beneficial deal agreed.

The Japanese can access Europe tariff-free without accepting Single Market rules or being confined into a backstop. Why can't we?

It took the EU 7 years to agree the Japanese trade deal. I suggest you read @AlastairMeeks excellent header on the subject from a few years ago. I'm ashamed to admit I didn't think much of it then, but he was right.

Honestly, the backstop helps us more than it helps the EU. It keeps us in the ~40 trade deals that the c*** Liam Fox has failed to replicate and gives us a lot of breathing room and time to get these signed before our final exit.

If it takes 7 years, it takes 7 years. I'm OK with that. I'm not OK with being bound by the backstop forever, nor do I trust the EU not to bind us to it forever given how hard they have fought to bind us to it forever.

Ultimately we had a unilateral 2 year exit from the EU itself. If we can't have a 2 year unilateral exit from the backstop then I don't think the EU are negotiating in good faith.

Ultimately the government could repeal the Withdrawal Agreement if they EU refused to negotiate in good faith.

That's disputed under international law and could leave us a pariah state.

No reason not to put a break clause into it if that is the attitude.

Philip_Thompson said:

tlg86 said:

Irrespective of the fact that the seven MPs don't have to hold by elections, do we think that they should anyway? I'd have thought that Chuka would have a decent chance of winning his seat at the very least, and it would give them more air time on the TV.

QTWAIN.

We elect MPs not Parties and the cost to the taxpayer of holding a by-election is just a waste of money for what is essentially an ego trip. EDIT: Though if we do it should be like they often do in America and be held at next regular election (eg in May with locals if they're happening).

In a way there was a stronger argument against the Ukip MPs holding by-elections as it wasn't long until the GE. I know what you mean about cost, but I think that it would be forgivable in the circumstances.