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Two points, to be considered together:
1. Theresa May won a vote of no confidence as party leader, amongst Tory MPs, just before Christmas.
2. Tomorrow she's almost certainly going to win a vote of no confidence in her government, in the Commons.0 -
That's one thing that can't realistically happen. Once it had sorted out Brexit, a GNU would be an alliance of two moderate but ideologically opposed parties with no other common platform and no popular mandate. A General Election would be necessary later in the year.Anazina said:
They can split in the Commons and give themselves three years to sort out the details.Black_Rook said:
It's possible. If standing order 14 remains in force and Theresa May won't budge on her Withdrawal Agreement, then pro-EU MPs will have to think of creative ways to get rid of her. Otherwise, the clock runs down and they either have to swallow the Deal or watch Hard Brexit happen.Anazina said:Peston talking up a double split and a gnu.
Not likely but the thing I like about Pezza is he is prepared to speculate and be provocative.
Unlike Laura The Borer.
A gross failure to reach agreement followed by Deal or No Deal, or a small breakaway by Tory Hard Remainers (eight should be sufficient) both seem more likely, but a major realignment isn't impossible. The barriers to it are high: party loyalty, abandoning the party name and organisation to the rump left behind, and the need for the move to be co-ordinated so that a trap isn't sprung (where only one side splits and it ends up being routed by the other in a GE.) But there are also advantages for centrist MPs - jettisoning the ERG wing on one side, escaping the control of Corbyn on the other - so if they get desperate enough then they might just end up giving it a go.
Fantasy politics. But, as you say, who knows?0 -
Some memes are great.kle4 said:
You're a hypocrite - a few minutes earlier you were chortling over the Cameron 'chaos with Ed M' tweet meme. You don't dislike memes, you just dislike some others like. Why do you think your memes deserve to be chuckled at but others condemned?Anazina said:
I wasn’t aware one could negate the teeth-grindingly awful PB meme of +1.tyson said:
-1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...Sandpit said:
+1Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
I’ll submit another -1.
And +1 isn't even a meme for crying out loud. It's just people indicating they really liked a statement, as there's no like button.
+1 is tiresome internetese.
Avoid.0 -
Given the cult still think he is anti-Brexit, I am sure this stunt will go down well with them. Its those bastard Tories and the bankers again stopping Corbyn revolutionizing the corrupt system.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...0 -
Maybe, but he's not exactly going to be fooling anyone after the third failed VONCBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...0 -
And the EU should have listened to him..El_Capitano said:
When Cameron was our MP, he would frequently pronounce that our little town - the one place that consistently voted Lib Dem in his overwhelming Tory constituency - was "disputatious" and "argumentative". He once said that "I can be flavour of the month in Westminster and everyone's applauding me, then I come back here and you tell me precisely what I've done wrong and why I'll never amount to anything."Black_Rook said:
Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.kle4 said:It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.
I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.
If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.
The man's a fool.
All very affectionately - he liked us and, as a constituency MP, we liked him: we asked him back to open our new Community Centre the other year and he gave a terrific speech. But he'd have to drive past the EU flags fluttering from houses in the town to get there.
Should have listened to us, Dave, shouldn't you?
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Labour may find the other parties decide to act responsibly and not support a series of voncBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...0 -
Two years and a good chunk of people are still fooled into thinking he is doing everything possible to stop Brexit....solarflare said:
Maybe, but he's not exactly going to be fooling anyone after the third failed VONCBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...0 -
Does May have to respect the meaningful vote? Articles written at the time the amendment passed suggest otherwise.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/jun/20/brexit-theresa-may-faces-meaningful-vote-crunch-day-politics-live?page=with:block-5b2a2293e4b02fa070a16245
Some insights do not quite stand the test of time.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1009344817300635648?s=210 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Could he do sudoku ?Dura_Ace said:
He was sat in Green Park eating a sandwich and doing a sudoku when everyone thought he was in Bruxelles like one of those blokes that get made redundant and can't tell their Mrs.rottenborough said:DD still seeing unicorns in front of his eyes, as he claims, yet again, that German car manufacturers will force EU to renegotiated.
Did he actually go to Brussels at all?
Bravo.0 -
Why does Corbyn want to run the clock down for May? He'd end up carrying the can for No Deal.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...0 -
The Labour and Tory moderates aren’t massively apart politicallyBlack_Rook said:
That's one thing that can't realistically happen. Once it had sorted out Brexit, a GNU would be an alliance of two moderate but ideologically opposed parties with no other common platform and no popular mandate. A General Election would be necessary later in the year.Anazina said:
They can split in the Commons and give themselves three years to sort out the details.Black_Rook said:
It's possible. If standing order 14 remains in force and Theresa May won't budge on her Withdrawal Agreement, then pro-EU MPs will have to think of creative ways to get rid of her. Otherwise, the clock runs down and they either have to swallow the Deal or watch Hard Brexit happen.Anazina said:Peston talking up a double split and a gnu.
Not likely but the thing I like about Pezza is he is prepared to speculate and be provocative.
Unlike Laura The Borer.
A gross failure to reach agreement followed by Deal or No Deal, or a small breakaway by Tory Hard Remainers (eight should be sufficient) both seem more likely, but a major realignment isn't impossible. The barriers to it are high: party loyalty, abandoning the party name and organisation to the rump left behind, and the need for the move to be co-ordinated so that a trap isn't sprung (where only one side splits and it ends up being routed by the other in a GE.) But there are also advantages for centrist MPs - jettisoning the ERG wing on one side, escaping the control of Corbyn on the other - so if they get desperate enough then they might just end up giving it a go.
Fantasy politics. But, as you say, who knows?0 -
Well, fair enough, you're right thereFrancisUrquhart said:
Two years and a good chunk of people are still fooled into thinking he is doing everything possible to stop Brexit....solarflare said:
Maybe, but he's not exactly going to be fooling anyone after the third failed VONCBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...0 -
Did he ask for a veto on Turkish accession?notme2 said:
And the EU should have listened to him..El_Capitano said:
When Cameron was our MP, he would frequently pronounce that our little town - the one place that consistently voted Lib Dem in his overwhelming Tory constituency - was "disputatious" and "argumentative". He once said that "I can be flavour of the month in Westminster and everyone's applauding me, then I come back here and you tell me precisely what I've done wrong and why I'll never amount to anything."Black_Rook said:
Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.kle4 said:It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.
I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.
If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.
The man's a fool.
All very affectionately - he liked us and, as a constituency MP, we liked him: we asked him back to open our new Community Centre the other year and he gave a terrific speech. But he'd have to drive past the EU flags fluttering from houses in the town to get there.
Should have listened to us, Dave, shouldn't you?0 -
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In other news, there has been a development Chez Nabavi which I didn't see coming. My winnings (hat-tip Alastair) on the Meaningful Vote have been arbitrarily clobbered by a McDonnell-style 100% Windfall Tax and allocated to buying Champagne for an upcoming family evening. Admittedly this isn't as bad as the last such windfall tax, when 70% of the winnings were appropriated for a ride-on lawnmower rather than being available for claret as I had intended.0
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When you're quoting Burgon and Gardiner you've no place to go intellectually.
These are testing times, but an idiot is an idiot.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour may find the other parties decide to act responsibly and not support a series of voncBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
It would very rapidly make a sideshow from a farce if Corbyn kept tabling losing voncs. It will run out of steam soon enough.0 -
There are increasing reports that the EU believes a lengthier A50 extension is going to be needed in any event. Even if the Deal is signed, there may not be enough time left for the UK Parliament to get the Withdrawal Agreement and all of the associated legislation onto the statute book.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He hasn't displayed any to get brexit over the lineScott_P said:
I think that shortly TM will go to Brussels, some improvements may be offered, then the EU will state this is the end state of the deal, will not re-open discussions with anyone including labour, and that A50 can only be deferred until the 18th April, the date the EU elections commence
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
I think that the EU might be prepared to renegotiate as well, but only if (a) it were with the aim of securing an Andrex Soft Brexit, and (b) if there were already evidence from votes in the House of Commons that a firm majority existed for such a solution.0 -
The only thing more tiresome than Anazina’s posts about how other people express themselves on the internet is the way our wretched political class has handled Brexit.Anazina said:
Some memes are great.kle4 said:
You're a hypocrite - a few minutes earlier you were chortling over the Cameron 'chaos with Ed M' tweet meme. You don't dislike memes, you just dislike some others like. Why do you think your memes deserve to be chuckled at but others condemned?Anazina said:
I wasn’t aware one could negate the teeth-grindingly awful PB meme of +1.tyson said:
-1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...Sandpit said:
+1Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
I’ll submit another -1.
And +1 isn't even a meme for crying out loud. It's just people indicating they really liked a statement, as there's no like button.
+1 is tiresome internetese.
Avoid.
I’m not going to waste any more time thinking about something over which I have no control. See you guys in a month.
Play nice.0 -
Corbyn didn't really have a choice, May forced his hand - he couldn't back down after she not only challenged him but also said she would allow other parties to submit if not.AndyJS said:
It will perhaps help May somewhat but at the end of the day, a temporary bounce won't change the situation she's in, and he can keep calling votes when she's weaker and no deal approaches.0 -
We can live in hope maybeBlack_Rook said:
There are increasing reports that the EU believes a lengthier A50 extension is going to be needed in any event. Even if the Deal is signed, there may not be enough time left for the UK Parliament to get the Withdrawal Agreement and all of the associated legislation onto the statute book.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He hasn't displayed any to get brexit over the lineScott_P said:
I think that shortly TM will go to Brussels, some improvements may be offered, then the EU will state this is the end state of the deal, will not re-open discussions with anyone including labour, and that A50 can only be deferred until the 18th April, the date the EU elections commence
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
I think that the EU might be prepared to renegotiate as well, but only if (a) it were with the aim of securing an Andrex Soft Brexit, and (b) if there were already evidence from votes in the House of Commons that a firm majority existed for such a solution.0 -
I'm guessing that you didn't read the 538 article where he was less than 100% enthusiastic about her chances...edmundintokyo said:KLOBUCHAR doing a logo pitch competition, leave your logo at a coffee shop to participate
https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/10852991400436572170 -
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Yes. We over price novelty ( the MV margin ) and underprice fundamentals ( what you mentioned )Richard_Nabavi said:Two points, to be considered together:
1. Theresa May won a vote of no confidence as party leader, amongst Tory MPs, just before Christmas.
2. Tomorrow she's almost certainly going to win a vote of no confidence in her government, in the Commons.0 -
Corbyn can do it again. It’s not either or.AndyJS said:0 -
He really is Britain's Trump, as with Trump reality is completely at odds with what his supporters think of him. Susceptibility to cult-like behaviour must be surprisingly common in the general population.FrancisUrquhart said:Given the cult still think he is anti-Brexit, I am sure this stunt will go down well with them. Its those bastard Tories and the bankers again stopping Corbyn revolutionizing the corrupt system.
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I think his acolytes will blame May. Remember, many of them think he's a remainer.glw said:
Why does Corbyn want to run the clock down for May? He'd end up carrying the can for No Deal.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...0 -
I believe the Blessed Margaret called 27 before success.Anazina said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour may find the other parties decide to act responsibly and not support a series of voncBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
It would very rapidly make a sideshow from a farce if Corbyn kept tabling losing voncs. It will run out of steam soon enough.0 -
Fair point!dixiedean said:
I believe the Blessed Margaret called 27 before success.Anazina said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour may find the other parties decide to act responsibly and not support a series of voncBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
It would very rapidly make a sideshow from a farce if Corbyn kept tabling losing voncs. It will run out of steam soon enough.0 -
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.0 -
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave0 -
I guess the rationale is that May is the PM, she carries the can for failing to get a Deal through and has to clean up any mess afterwards. Labour's position could always be "if you'd done the decent thing and stood down, we would've done a better job."glw said:
Why does Corbyn want to run the clock down for May? He'd end up carrying the can for No Deal.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
Beyond that, Corbyn is an old Left Eurosceptic. If he can get out of the EU *and* make the Tories carry the can for any and all negative consequences of leaving, I'd've thought that he'd be very happy.0 -
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.0 -
Sure I read it, basically his theory is that you need multiple constituencies within the Democratic Party (he has an axis that rather mysteriously pits "millenials" against "left", for example) and KLOBUCHAR isn't left, black or latino.rcs1000 said:
I'm guessing that you didn't read the 538 article where he was less than 100% enthusiastic about her chances...edmundintokyo said:KLOBUCHAR doing a logo pitch competition, leave your logo at a coffee shop to participate
https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/1085299140043657217
Dunno, he could be right, but my theory is that Democrats of all factions and creeds really, really want to beat Trump.0 -
What's trollish about that post?IanB2 said:
Don't feed the (new) trolltheProle said:
If we get no deal and very little of significance to Joe Public actually changes (as is pretty obviously going to be the case), some people (the same people who told us that the country would be a smoking ruin in 24hrs after the vote, and talked of punishment budgets etc.) are going to find themselves wearing an awful lot of egg on their faces!TheScreamingEagles said:
Short term pain for long term gain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies meConcanvasser said:
Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are the big losers tonightMyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
It'll destroy the eurosceptic movement forever.
All those quotes by them that No Deal was Project Fear/That WTO will be awesome will haunt them, worse than Brown's 'We abolished boom and bust'.
It is a logical although "if" is doing a lot of work. You disagree with the comments in parentheses but that doesn't make it trolling.0 -
Consider the possible alternative that she is the only example of 'not the problem'.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave
0 -
+1Omnium said:
Consider the possible alternative that she is the only example of 'not the problem'.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave0 -
Doesn't Patel fall into 2, 3, and 4?Sean_F said:
1. Continuity Remain (Grieve, Allen ,Soubry, Wollaston, Gyimah, Lee, Jo Johnson, Bebb,)Philip_Thompson said:
Who would still oppose it even with the backstop dealt with? Its the backstop Boris, JRM and many others have been underpinning all their key objections on.Sean_F said:
You'd have 50 Tory MP's opposing it, regardless.Philip_Thompson said:
1) Then we no deal and lets see Varadkar put up his hard border.edmundintokyo said:
Two problems:Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons
2) I think it would. The stated reason why well over one hundred MPs voted no having been dealt with.
The Backstop's not the only objection.
The transition was agreed in principle very early on. Its the backstop that is unbearable.
2. Ex-ministers, furious about leaving office (Fallon, Villiers, , Shapps, Hands, Greening, Collins, Mitchell, )
3. The Thick (Bridgen, Wiggin, Baron, Patel, Syms, Jenkyns, Francois, Bradley, David Davis, Duddridge, Philip Davies, IDS, Bone, Holloborne,
4. The opportunists (Boris, Raab, McVey, Pursglove)0 -
In order for someone else to take over, she needs to go first. If she won't go voluntarily then she will have to be removed in a successful VoNC. That would require Parliamentary defections from her own side.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave
I think it'll more likely than not happen, because some Conservative MPs seem very determined to stop Brexit and find themselves, variously, in positions where they could resume lucrative careers outside Parliament, are at serious risk of deselection or of losing their seats at the next GE regardless, are nearing retirement, or could stand a decent chance of survival by defecting to other parties. But it's far from a done deal.0 -
I thought it was more like five over a four year period.dixiedean said:
I believe the Blessed Margaret called 27 before success.Anazina said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour may find the other parties decide to act responsibly and not support a series of voncBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
It would very rapidly make a sideshow from a farce if Corbyn kept tabling losing voncs. It will run out of steam soon enough.0 -
Source? I can't find reference to that...dixiedean said:
I believe the Blessed Margaret called 27 before success.Anazina said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour may find the other parties decide to act responsibly and not support a series of voncBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
It would very rapidly make a sideshow from a farce if Corbyn kept tabling losing voncs. It will run out of steam soon enough.0 -
Doesn't this vote make No Deal more - rather than less - likely? It's the law after all. And there seems to be no way in which Parliament can pass a law annulling it and either revoking or extending Article 50.
MPs still seem oblivious to the fact that the EU Withdrawal Act they all voted for is a No Deal Brexit.
Or am I missing something obvious?0 -
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.0 -
Oh she's a problem, but the fact is all the problems are because parliament is horribly divided. Even being crap would not be such an issue if parliament were sufficiently united. Her going should happen but it's not about to make things suddenly easy.Omnium said:
Consider the possible alternative that she is the only example of 'not the problem'.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave
0 -
Conservative MPs, including Cabinet Ministers need to watch their backs with their local Conservative Associations if they want to be selected as candidates at the next general election.
Also those aspiring to be Conservative leader will not need to be seen as remainers in any way and certainly not sabotaging leaving the EU cleanly.0 -
Exaggeration for effectoxfordsimon said:
Source? I can't find reference to that...dixiedean said:
I believe the Blessed Margaret called 27 before success.Anazina said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Labour may find the other parties decide to act responsibly and not support a series of voncBlack_Rook said:https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672
Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.
And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
It would very rapidly make a sideshow from a farce if Corbyn kept tabling losing voncs. It will run out of steam soon enough.
0 -
11 March 1976
- PM, Wilson, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
9 June 1976
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
23 March 1977
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
20 July 1977
- PM, Callaghan, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
14 December 1978
- PM, Callaghan, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
28 March 1979
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
Dates of the Confidence/No Confidence motions during the period of Thatcher of LOTO
Not quite 27 is it???
Indeed not all of them were tabled by Thatcher - the 1978 one was called as a Confidence vote by Callaghan. The March 76 and July 77 votes were on Government adjournment motions.
So that looks like 3 VoNC motions tabled by Thatcher over 4 years.
Source - http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP95-19/RP95-19.pdf
0 -
MPs are rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement.Andrew said:So, with today's defeat it seems we have movement by May. How much we'll find out. Soooo......
1) May wants her deal.
2) Labour (officially) wants a perma customs union.
3) The EU won't touch the WA, but there's room for some sort of letter of intent on the direction of future travel wrt the trade agreement.
Norway+CU as a commonly-declared intended future state, based on the WA in the short term? Corbyn and May can both claim victory. No crash-exit.
They haven't yet expressed a view on the future trade arrangement with the EU because it is currently irrelevant.0 -
Hmm. My mp voted for the deal, but also the Baron amendment. A mixed bag then.0
-
No, you are quite correct.Cyclefree said:Doesn't this vote make No Deal more - rather than less - likely? It's the law after all. And there seems to be no way in which Parliament can pass a law annulling it and either revoking or extending Article 50.
MPs still seem oblivious to the fact that the EU Withdrawal Act they all voted for is a No Deal Brexit.
Or am I missing something obvious?0 -
The Remainer Civil War
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1085320773072498688
https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1085315459916972032
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1085318463646781443
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1085302295611478016
They need a plan, a united front, the numbers in the Commons, and to be willing and able to both vote May out of office and sideline Corbyn if they get in the way. Lots to accomplish, very little time.0 -
They'd rather pretend it's all Mays fault. There's plenty to lay at her door. But not that.Cyclefree said:Doesn't this vote make No Deal more - rather than less - likely? It's the law after all. And there seems to be no way in which Parliament can pass a law annulling it and either revoking or extending Article 50.
MPs still seem oblivious to the fact that the EU Withdrawal Act they all voted for is a No Deal Brexit.
Or am I missing something obvious?0 -
The problem on both sides is that they can agree anything in negotiations but they then have to get it past grandstanding politicians.Scott_P said:
Labour has a policy that it would support a permanent customs union. May would never get it past her party.
0 -
About the only person to come out of this shit show with his reputation enhanced. And that's still by advocating the deal no one wants.kle4 said:0 -
Just to add to the humour, if May is VONC'd and loses...she still can't be forced out of the Con leadership until December. Stuff be weird, now.Black_Rook said:
In order for someone else to take over, she needs to go first. If she won't go voluntarily then she will have to be removed in a successful VoNC. That would require Parliamentary defections from her own side.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave
I think it'll more likely than not happen, because some Conservative MPs seem very determined to stop Brexit and find themselves, variously, in positions where they could resume lucrative careers outside Parliament, are at serious risk of deselection or of losing their seats at the next GE regardless, are nearing retirement, or could stand a decent chance of survival by defecting to other parties. But it's far from a done deal.0 -
Hmmmm... haven't some of the UK seats already been reallocated to other countries?edmundintokyo said:
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
Oh well, if they can reverse said reallocation relatively easily then I guess that solves the problem. Won't make us very popular with the countries and candidates done out of the extra seats, but then again I don't imagine we'll be flavour of the month for about the next 20 years even if we do end up staying in.0 -
Simonoxfordsimon said:11 March 1976
- PM, Wilson, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
9 June 1976
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
23 March 1977
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
20 July 1977
- PM, Callaghan, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
14 December 1978
- PM, Callaghan, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
28 March 1979
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
Dates of the Confidence/No Confidence motions during the period of Thatcher of LOTO
Not quite 27 is it???
Indeed not all of them were tabled by Thatcher - the 1978 one was called as a Confidence vote by Callaghan. The March 76 and July 77 votes were on Government adjournment motions.
So that looks like 3 VoNC motions tabled by Thatcher over 4 years.
Source - http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP95-19/RP95-19.pdf
From your list it looks like Harold Wilson called the first of the six, presumably as a valedictorian act before disappearing for reasons unknown.
Note: I assumed the 27 was a tease by Dixie, his point being that Thatcher Milk Snatcher did table several voncs in her time. However, I maintain that Corbo doing so endlessly is unwise.0 -
oxfordsimon said:
No, you are quite correct.Cyclefree said:Doesn't this vote make No Deal more - rather than less - likely? It's the law after all. And there seems to be no way in which Parliament can pass a law annulling it and either revoking or extending Article 50.
MPs still seem oblivious to the fact that the EU Withdrawal Act they all voted for is a No Deal Brexit.
Or am I missing something obvious?
She is missing the obvious that there is a huge anti No Deal majority in the Commons, and that will usually finds a way,0 -
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.Cyclefree said:Doesn't this vote make No Deal more - rather than less - likely? It's the law after all. And there seems to be no way in which Parliament can pass a law annulling it and either revoking or extending Article 50.
MPs still seem oblivious to the fact that the EU Withdrawal Act they all voted for is a No Deal Brexit.
Or am I missing something obvious?0 -
Kinnock is an idiot. Just because he doesn't think No Deal is a good option for the country doesn't automatically preclude it from being an option on the ballot paper. It is his opinion, not fact. My opinion is he's an idiot - that doesn't make it fact.0
-
Really? Why not?viewcode said:
Just to add to the humour, if May is VONC'd and loses...she still can't be forced out of the Con leadership until December. Stuff be weird, now.Black_Rook said:
In order for someone else to take over, she needs to go first. If she won't go voluntarily then she will have to be removed in a successful VoNC. That would require Parliamentary defections from her own side.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave
I think it'll more likely than not happen, because some Conservative MPs seem very determined to stop Brexit and find themselves, variously, in positions where they could resume lucrative careers outside Parliament, are at serious risk of deselection or of losing their seats at the next GE regardless, are nearing retirement, or could stand a decent chance of survival by defecting to other parties. But it's far from a done deal.0 -
Of course she can, the 1 year thing is an internal party rule that 50% + 1 mp can scrap at any time; it wasn't written on golden tablets by god and delivered by an Archangel.viewcode said:
Just to add to the humour, if May is VONC'd and loses...she still can't be forced out of the Con leadership until December. Stuff be weird, now.Black_Rook said:
In order for someone else to take over, she needs to go first. If she won't go voluntarily then she will have to be removed in a successful VoNC. That would require Parliamentary defections from her own side.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave
I think it'll more likely than not happen, because some Conservative MPs seem very determined to stop Brexit and find themselves, variously, in positions where they could resume lucrative careers outside Parliament, are at serious risk of deselection or of losing their seats at the next GE regardless, are nearing retirement, or could stand a decent chance of survival by defecting to other parties. But it's far from a done deal.0 -
Some are reallocated in the new allocation, but that hasn't taken effect yet, because Britain is still in the EU. It doesn't need *reversing* because it hasn't taken effect yet, and the text that brings it in says it only takes effect if Britain leaves. Some countries get a little bit fewer than they'd get if the British hurried up and fucked off, but it's not a big difference - most of the British seats get eliminated rather than reallocated.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... haven't some of the UK seats already been reallocated to other countries?edmundintokyo said:
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
Oh well, if they can reverse said reallocation relatively easily then I guess that solves the problem. Won't make us very popular with the countries and candidates done out of the extra seats, but then again I don't imagine we'll be flavour of the month for about the next 20 years even if we do end up staying in.0 -
It was . Not meant seriously . Apols.Anazina said:
Simonoxfordsimon said:11 March 1976
- PM, Wilson, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
9 June 1976
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
23 March 1977
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
20 July 1977
- PM, Callaghan, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
14 December 1978
- PM, Callaghan, opened; LOpp, Thatcher, responded.
28 March 1979
- LOpp, Thatcher, opened; PM, Callaghan, responded.
Dates of the Confidence/No Confidence motions during the period of Thatcher of LOTO
Not quite 27 is it???
Indeed not all of them were tabled by Thatcher - the 1978 one was called as a Confidence vote by Callaghan. The March 76 and July 77 votes were on Government adjournment motions.
So that looks like 3 VoNC motions tabled by Thatcher over 4 years.
Source - http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP95-19/RP95-19.pdf
From your list it looks like Harold Wilson called the first of the six, presumably as a valedictorian act before disappearing for reasons unknown.
Note: I assumed the 27 was a tease by Dixie, his point being that Thatcher Milk Snatcher did table several voncs in her time. However, I maintain that Corbo doing so endlessly is unwise.
0 -
Over the last few weeks we were told Lab was delaying VONC until they thought they could win.
Now, people saying they can keep putting VONCs down repeatedly.
Maybe they'll do more than one, but in practice it's surely unlikely they'll do several close together as it would all look a bit silly.0 -
Technically they have only reallocated 27 of the UK's 73 seats and kept the rermaining 46 for future enlargements (e.g. Serbia and Montenegro joining).edmundintokyo said:
Some are reallocated in the new allocation, but that hasn't taken effect yet, because Britain is still in the EU. Some countries get a little bit fewer than they'd get of the British hurried up and fucked off, but it's not a big difference - most of the British seats get eliminated rathee than reallocated.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... haven't some of the UK seats already been reallocated to other countries?edmundintokyo said:
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
Oh well, if they can reverse said reallocation relatively easily then I guess that solves the problem. Won't make us very popular with the countries and candidates done out of the extra seats, but then again I don't imagine we'll be flavour of the month for about the next 20 years even if we do end up staying in.
France and Spain get an extra 5 each, Italy and the Netherlands get 3, Ireland 2 and the others either get 1 extra or stay the same. Given most countries elect using national or regional party lists it wouldn't be that difficult to revert back to the old numbers even up to election day. Its a bit messier say in Ireland which votes by STV - but they haven't altered their constituency boundaries just added extra seats in 2 of the 3.
So it would be quite easy to revert back and the UK elect its 73 MEPs for as long as is required. One big advantage of the EU not allowing first past the post or AV to be used for their elections!0 -
Re delaying Brexit - surely the way it'll happen is the Standing Orders will get suspended and someone (not the Govt) will bring in a one line Bill delaying Article 50.
It'll say nothing more than that - so nothing for anyone but the hardliners to disagree with - and it'll therefore pass.
Both front benches will have to vote for it.
Bercow will actually be doing Govt a favour - because would be hard for Govt to introduce such a Bill - but if someone else does then job is done for them.0 -
+1kle4 said:
You're a hypocrite - a few minutes earlier you were chortling over the Cameron 'chaos with Ed M' tweet meme. You don't dislike memes, you just dislike some others like. Why do you think your memes deserve to be chuckled at but others condemned?Anazina said:
I wasn’t aware one could negate the teeth-grindingly awful PB meme of +1.tyson said:
-1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...Sandpit said:
+1Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
I’ll submit another -1.
And +1 isn't even a meme for crying out loud. It's just people indicating they really liked a statement, as there's no like button.0 -
IIUC, Con leaders who survive a leadership challenge cannot again be challenged for a year.Anazina said:
Really? Why not?viewcode said:
Just to add to the humour, if May is VONC'd and loses...she still can't be forced out of the Con leadership until December. Stuff be weird, now.Black_Rook said:
In order for someone else to take over, she needs to go first. If she won't go voluntarily then she will have to be removed in a successful VoNC. That would require Parliamentary defections from her own side.Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave
I think it'll more likely than not happen, because some Conservative MPs seem very determined to stop Brexit and find themselves, variously, in positions where they could resume lucrative careers outside Parliament, are at serious risk of deselection or of losing their seats at the next GE regardless, are nearing retirement, or could stand a decent chance of survival by defecting to other parties. But it's far from a done deal.0 -
Shall you tell them or shall I?...asjohnstone said:...it wasn't written on golden tablets by god and delivered by an Archangel.
0 -
Sssh. The grey suits are meant to hide the factviewcode said:
Shall you tell them or shall I?...asjohnstone said:...it wasn't written on golden tablets by god and delivered by an Archangel.
0 -
Would his mother and father lose their £140k a year inflation proofed EU pensions if we left without a deal?!!KentRising said:Kinnock is an idiot. Just because he doesn't think No Deal is a good option for the country doesn't automatically preclude it from being an option on the ballot paper. It is his opinion, not fact. My opinion is he's an idiot - that doesn't make it fact.
Stephen is going to get a very generous inheritance thanks to the European taxpayer one day - as the Kinnocks must have a lot of spare cash to save every month! Who can blame him for loving the EU so much.0 -
It's fun watching all these British people bemused at the idea that politicians have considered a possibility in advance and taken care of it without drama.brendan16 said:
Technically they have only reallocated 27 of the UK's 73 seats and kept the rermaining 46 for future enlargements (e.g. Serbia and Montenegro joining).edmundintokyo said:
Some are reallocated in the new allocation, but that hasn't taken effect yet, because Britain is still in the EU. Some countries get a little bit fewer than they'd get of the British hurried up and fucked off, but it's not a big difference - most of the British seats get eliminated rathee than reallocated.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... haven't some of the UK seats already been reallocated to other countries?edmundintokyo said:
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
Oh well, if they can reverse said reallocation relatively easily then I guess that solves the problem. Won't make us very popular with the countries and candidates done out of the extra seats, but then again I don't imagine we'll be flavour of the month for about the next 20 years even if we do end up staying in.
France and Spain get an extra 5 each, Italy and the Netherlands get 3, Ireland 2 and the others either get 1 extra or stay the same. Given most countries elect using national or regional party lists it wouldn't be that difficult to revert back to the old numbers even up to election day. Its a bit messier say in Ireland which votes by STV - but they haven't altered their constituency boundaries just added extra seats in 2 of the 3.
So it would be quite easy to revert back and the UK elect its 73 MEPs for as long as is required. One big advantage of the EU not allowing first past the post or AV to be used for their elections!0 -
Apparently the EU treaties only allow a maximum of 751 seats in the parliament - a rather odd number! Shame we didn't ever have such a rule for the House of Lords.edmundintokyo said:
It's fun watching all these British people bemused at the idea that politicians have considered a possibility in advance and taken care of it without drama.brendan16 said:
Technically they have only reallocated 27 of the UK's 73 seats and kept the rermaining 46 for future enlargements (e.g. Serbia and Montenegro joining).edmundintokyo said:
Some are reallocated in the new allocation, but that hasn't taken effect yet, because Britain is still in the EU. Some countries get a little bit fewer than they'd get of the British hurried up and fucked off, but it's not a big difference - most of the British seats get eliminated rathee than reallocated.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... haven't some of the UK seats already been reallocated to other countries?edmundintokyo said:
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
Oh well, if they can reverse said reallocation relatively easily then I guess that solves the problem. Won't make us very popular with the countries and candidates done out of the extra seats, but then again I don't imagine we'll be flavour of the month for about the next 20 years even if we do end up staying in.
France and Spain get an extra 5 each, Italy and the Netherlands get 3, Ireland 2 and the others either get 1 extra or stay the same. Given most countries elect using national or regional party lists it wouldn't be that difficult to revert back to the old numbers even up to election day. Its a bit messier say in Ireland which votes by STV - but they haven't altered their constituency boundaries just added extra seats in 2 of the 3.
So it would be quite easy to revert back and the UK elect its 73 MEPs for as long as is required. One big advantage of the EU not allowing first past the post or AV to be used for their elections!0 -
Someone at the EU obviously liked prime numbersbrendan16 said:
Apparently the EU treaties only allow a maximum of 751 seats in the parliament - a rather odd number! Shame we didn't ever have such a rule for the House of Lords.edmundintokyo said:
It's fun watching all these British people bemused at the idea that politicians have considered a possibility in advance and taken care of it without drama.brendan16 said:
Technically they have only reallocated 27 of the UK's 73 seats and kept the rermaining 46 for future enlargements (e.g. Serbia and Montenegro joining).edmundintokyo said:
Some are reallocated in the new allocation, but that hasn't taken effect yet, because Britain is still in the EU. Some countries get a little bit fewer than they'd get of the British hurried up and fucked off, but it's not a big difference - most of the British seats get eliminated rathee than reallocated.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... haven't some of the UK seats already been reallocated to other countries?edmundintokyo said:
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
Oh well, if they can reverse said reallocation relatively easily then I guess that solves the problem. Won't make us very popular with the countries and candidates done out of the extra seats, but then again I don't imagine we'll be flavour of the month for about the next 20 years even if we do end up staying in.
France and Spain get an extra 5 each, Italy and the Netherlands get 3, Ireland 2 and the others either get 1 extra or stay the same. Given most countries elect using national or regional party lists it wouldn't be that difficult to revert back to the old numbers even up to election day. Its a bit messier say in Ireland which votes by STV - but they haven't altered their constituency boundaries just added extra seats in 2 of the 3.
So it would be quite easy to revert back and the UK elect its 73 MEPs for as long as is required. One big advantage of the EU not allowing first past the post or AV to be used for their elections!0 -
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?Yellow_Submarine said:
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.
0 -
By my estimates your MP is one of the following 9 people - that is something they will be able to tell their grandkids (if they have them). I was one of the famous 9 who voted Aye twice!kle4 said:Hmm. My mp voted for the deal, but also the Baron amendment. A mixed bag then.
Davies, Chris
Field, Frank
Hart, Simon
Johnson, Dr Caroline
Leigh, Sir Edward
Murrison, Dr Andrew
Parish, Neil
Percy, Andrew
Wood, Mike0 -
Corbyn was bounced into it by May saying she had set aside time for a VONC on Wednesday.AndyJS said:
If Corbyn declined to accept the challenge he would be shown to be fit.
It is a tactic by May to have pressure put on Corbyn by his party for a second referendum - which Corbyn can see is a trap for Labour.0 -
But who?Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave0 -
Corbyn may be fit - but is he frit of a people's vote.David_Evershed said:
Corbyn was bounced into it by May saying she had set aside time for a VONC on Wednesday.AndyJS said:
If Corbyn declined to accept the challenge he would be shown to be fit.
It is a tactic by May to have pressure put on Corbyn by his party for a second referendum - which Corbyn can see is a trap for Labour.0 -
Mike Hancock, obviously. He is the best they have.rpjs said:
But who?Dura_Ace said:
May is not even part of the problem now; she is the problem. She has no authority in her party or cabinet and no credibility with the EU. Whatever happens now will have to be led by somebody else. She is done.Big_G_NorthWales said:Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit
If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave0 -
More changes in Brussels - Gerard Batten (UKIP Leader) and two other UKIP MEPs have left Farage's EFDD group and joined the Europe of Freedom and Nations group which is led by Le Pen, Wilders and Salvini.
If we do remain in the EU and participate in the May elections it will interesting to see how many UKIP/ex UKIP party lists will run candidates!
https://order-order.com/2019/01/15/ukip-meps-join-national-front-group-european-parliament/0 -
Some results of academic work into Brexit voters.
"........The Leave vote was not more popular among the low skilled, but rather among individuals with intermediate levels of education (A-Levels and GCSE high grades), especially when their socio-economic position was perceived to be declining and/or to be stagnant. These findings point to an alternative narrative to that of the left behind.
This argument of the squeezed middle being behind Brexit raises new questions about how the new politics of inequality influences voting, for it shows that Brexit was the expression of a widely felt social malaise that affects ample segments of the population."
Source
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-and-the-squeezed-middle/
0 -
Trump talking about pulling out of NATO.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html0 -
No, his argument is that she hasn't ENTHUSED any of those groups.edmundintokyo said:
Sure I read it, basically his theory is that you need multiple constituencies within the Democratic Party (he has an axis that rather mysteriously pits "millenials" against "left", for example) and KLOBUCHAR isn't left, black or latino.rcs1000 said:
I'm guessing that you didn't read the 538 article where he was less than 100% enthusiastic about her chances...edmundintokyo said:KLOBUCHAR doing a logo pitch competition, leave your logo at a coffee shop to participate
https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/1085299140043657217
Dunno, he could be right, but my theory is that Democrats of all factions and creeds really, really want to beat Trump.
If I wanted to beat Trump, I'd skip the oldies (bye Biden and Sanders). Skip the weirdos (Gabbard, Brooker). And find a proven election winner who can appeal to the people Trump won by accident last time.
Step forward...
Sherrod Brown
or
John Hickenlooper
But I find the logic for backing Beto or Harris reasonably strong.0 -
My post listed four mechanisms for parliament to express it's will. Yesterday a Bill was introduced to the Commons on extension. Then there are opposition day motions.SunnyJim said:
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?Yellow_Submarine said:
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.0 -
But it is a fact.KentRising said:Kinnock is an idiot. Just because he doesn't think No Deal is a good option for the country doesn't automatically preclude it from being an option on the ballot paper. It is his opinion, not fact. My opinion is he's an idiot - that doesn't make it fact.
Therefore... therefore...
Chewbacca is not an Ewok.0 -
(Although there are actually a couple of FPTP seats, although they only exist because they are proportion for such a small are they become de facto FPTP...)brendan16 said:
Technically they have only reallocated 27 of the UK's 73 seats and kept the rermaining 46 for future enlargements (e.g. Serbia and Montenegro joining).edmundintokyo said:
Some are reallocated in the new allocation, but that hasn't taken effect yet, because Britain is still in the EU. Some countries get a little bit fewer than they'd get of the British hurried up and fucked off, but it's not a big difference - most of the British seats get eliminated rathee than reallocated.Black_Rook said:
Hmmmm... haven't some of the UK seats already been reallocated to other countries?edmundintokyo said:
There's no fudge. There's a new calculation for the number of seats per country. If the British are still there come the election, you keep using the old one.Black_Rook said:
Really? Any idea what the fudge is?edmundintokyo said:
It's entirely clear how they intend to do that, since a plan covering that specific eventuality has already been passed by the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.Black_Rook said:
Quite how they intend to work their way around the European Parliament elections isn't yet clear. Still looks like a serious headache for both sides save in the case of revocation.
Oh well, if they can reverse said reallocation relatively easily then I guess that solves the problem. Won't make us very popular with the countries and candidates done out of the extra seats, but then again I don't imagine we'll be flavour of the month for about the next 20 years even if we do end up staying in.
France and Spain get an extra 5 each, Italy and the Netherlands get 3, Ireland 2 and the others either get 1 extra or stay the same. Given most countries elect using national or regional party lists it wouldn't be that difficult to revert back to the old numbers even up to election day. Its a bit messier say in Ireland which votes by STV - but they haven't altered their constituency boundaries just added extra seats in 2 of the 3.
So it would be quite easy to revert back and the UK elect its 73 MEPs for as long as is required. One big advantage of the EU not allowing first past the post or AV to be used for their elections!0 -
That is a very interesting question.brendan16 said:
Would his mother and father lose their £140k a year inflation proofed EU pensions if we left without a deal?!!KentRising said:Kinnock is an idiot. Just because he doesn't think No Deal is a good option for the country doesn't automatically preclude it from being an option on the ballot paper. It is his opinion, not fact. My opinion is he's an idiot - that doesn't make it fact.
Stephen is going to get a very generous inheritance thanks to the European taxpayer one day - as the Kinnocks must have a lot of spare cash to save every month! Who can blame him for loving the EU so much.
And there are two separate answers - one for politicians, and one for Eurocrats. For politicians, if the EU passed a law removing pensions from MEPs from countries that left the EU, they would probably be in the schtuck.
For Eurocrats, the position is a lot more nuanced. You see, almost all British Eurocrats were civil servant who went to Brussels on secondment and then stayed. They will - except for the oldest ones - be covered by UK TUPE legislation, which means that their previous employer continues to bear some responsibility, and if the EU decided not to pay pensions to them, then there would be a case against the UK government in the UK under UK law. I don't know what the decision would be, but TUPE is incredibly and annoyingly strict, so it is certainly more than possible that we would end up paying the bill irrespective. (This is under the assumption, of course, that the EU doesn't simply pay the pensions and then bring a case under international arbitration.)0 -
Add to that, that the extension of A50 is not the UK’s prerogative, and relies on unanimous approval from the EU27. Also that the EU Parliament is dissolved on 23rd April for the elections, not sitting until 2nd July.SunnyJim said:
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?Yellow_Submarine said:
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.0 -
It is worth noting, though, that (1) the parliament isn't involved in the extension process, and (2) the EU27 reaches unanimous agreement on 1,000s of things every week. If 26 countries want a two month extension, and there's a single holdout, then there would be enormous pressure brought to bear on them.Sandpit said:
Add to that, that the extension of A50 is not the UK’s prerogative, and relies on unanimous approval from the EU27. Also that the EU Parliament is dissolved on 23rd April for the elections, not sitting until 2nd July.SunnyJim said:
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?Yellow_Submarine said:
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.
I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.0 -
There's something to be said for a long extension without closure. It pushes the cliff edge back without changing the UK's strategic options one bit, and the European elections will provide an opportunity to further deflate the 2016 mandate. Populists in the UK could even do a lot worse than in other major countries.rcs1000 said:I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
0 -
I also like Brown and Hickenlooper for that reason, although Brown has a problem with domestic violence allegations.rcs1000 said:
No, his argument is that she hasn't ENTHUSED any of those groups.
If I wanted to beat Trump, I'd skip the oldies (bye Biden and Sanders). Skip the weirdos (Gabbard, Brooker). And find a proven election winner who can appeal to the people Trump won by accident last time.
Step forward...
Sherrod Brown
or
John Hickenlooper
But I find the logic for backing Beto or Harris reasonably strong.
But you also need a route through the primaries in a very crowded race. I think KLOBUCHAR has one in the form of: Have strong appeal in Iowa, then go the rest of the way on "look how electable I am to Iowans".0 -
It might actually be easier to get a 2-year extension than a 3-month one. At least with 2 years it feels like something might come out differently rather than just being between the same rock and the same hard place a few months down the line, and for a lot of politicians a 2-year can kick would be enough to make it someone else's problem.williamglenn said:
There's something to be said for a long extension without closure. It pushes the cliff edge back without changing the UK's strategic options one bit, and the European elections will provide an opportunity to further deflate the 2016 mandate. Populists in the UK could even do a lot worse than in other major countries.rcs1000 said:I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
0 -
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.0 -
The problem with this approach is the European elections would see massive votes for whatever Frangest nukip appears. They won the 2014 elections, with a stab in the back mantra they'd do so again, the Tory vote would collapse.williamglenn said:
There's something to be said for a long extension without closure. It pushes the cliff edge back without changing the UK's strategic options one bit, and the European elections will provide an opportunity to further deflate the 2016 mandate. Populists in the UK could even do a lot worse than in other major countries.rcs1000 said:I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
It's be sold as a mandate for no deal0 -
Only now becoming clear? Give over...williamglenn said:0
