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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th
To my mind the most significant thing to come out of the catastrophic defeat for the government on its Brexit deal was the statement by Theresa May that she’ll look to consulting with other parties.
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And the Tories are too busy smiling through clenched teeth that they are still a functioning party to say anything.
What happened tonight is that - assuming Brexit is a crashing plane - a decision has been made to jettison the parachutes to see if that makes a difference.
Like we saw, inter alia, at
1) Early hours of June 24th 2016
2) Early hours of 9th of November 2016
The ERG lost because we now either Remain or leave disastrously.
The Remainer lobby lost because they still have only a slim chance of remaining but have ruled out all other good options.
Theresa May lost - that doesn't need explaining.
Democracy lost - our system is demonstrably broken, producing people who are unfit to govern us and who will deliberately ignore the loudly expressed will of the electorate when it suits them.
And we all lost, for all of the above reasons.
My head is actually aching with sadness and frustration.
Good night.
Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....
It'll destroy the eurosceptic movement forever.
All those quotes by them that No Deal was Project Fear/That WTO will be awesome will haunt them, worse than Brown's 'We abolished boom and bust'.
https://twitter.com/yourmeps/status/1085224219896676354?s=21
Not quite sure how the teeny countries he was naming were remotely expected to be self sufficient in resources let alone make all their own specialist goods. He should take a gander at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
One of his examples was Slovakia!!! (Trade is 189% of their GDP if you check that link. Exports alone are 96. 3%....)
I don't think extending is easy or straightforward.
My assumption has always been that the DUP (like a lot of Brexit voters) secretly do regret their vote, but pride will stop them ever saying "I was wrong" out loud.
I think they just enjoy pissing.
"I just wonder if that is paving the way for a second referendum. Clearly the other main parties, LAB after its likely confidence vote failure tomorrow, the SNP, the LDS, PC and the Green are all committed to a second vote."
Depends what this consultation amounts to. If it's this:
"What lovely ideas, let's ask Mr Barnier about them. Oh dear, Mr Barnier says 'Non.' Now, are you sure my Withdrawal Agreement is that bad?"
then still nothing has changed. If, on the other hand, it's this:
"You know, I've seen the light and suddenly that second referendum I've been writing off as a terrible idea for years sounds like the best thing ever!"
then obviously something very important has changed. We can then look forward to another national festival of bloodletting.
A Deal vs Remain referendum would obviously provide the opportunity for May to rescue her WA by taking it to the country, but she has previously insisted over and over and over again that putting us through yet another referendum would be a terrible idea, and it would also result in the Tory Parliamentary party scratching each others' eyes out in public in a three-cornered campaign of unparalleled viciousness (Remainers, May Loyalists, and Hard Brexiteers, with many members of the latter group possibly having started a campaign to boycott the vote or having flounced out of the party altogether to start a rival outfit.)
Moreover, if it gets even as far as a referendum bill going before Parliament then are we sure that the DUP won't try to kill the whole process at birth, in their ongoing attempts to prevent the Deal from being implemented? That way lies a likely General Election, in which the Conservatives would then have a similar set of problems to the above, plus the hopeless task of trying to sound as if they all really believe in a manifesto the central pledge of which is to implement the Prime Minister's Deal.
I don't think she'll go to the country, whether in a referendum or a GE, unless there are absolutely no other options left.
I have a sneaking admiration for somebody so utterly impervious to shame, and so totally inured to their profound incompetence, as to keep buggering on until the shit hits the fan in a truly epochal manner.
Step forward and take a bow, Theresa May. Your name is guaranteed to ring through the annals of splendid incompetence evermore.
The DUP aren’t interested in Brexit per say. They are interested in any political development that creates divergence between NI and Eire, with the former cleaving more closely to GB.
I don’t think it will happen but it’s great value.
English sparkling wine, surely?
https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1085278477752905728
(And I think Tom Hamilton underestimates the majority required, assuming the extra Tory backbenchers would split in proportion to the vote against)
Alternatively someone's just fucking around
https://twitter.com/maxgmarshall/status/1085277849416806400
What they want is to just revoke, possibly under pretence of a delay. I fail to see how, this government is that incompetent.
Total possible vote = 635 (634 voted today).
Govt Notional maj = 13 so if it goes 100% on party lines the result would be:
Yes 311, No 324.
If Govt gets Lady Hermon, it's Yes 310, No 325.
If Flynn is absent (was he the MP absent today?) then Yes get 309.
Makes the Betfair market interesting - 310-319 is favourite but if Flynn can't make it then that band could well lose. And that assumes all Independent Lab vote Yes.
And then...
Agreed. But I can’t find the bloody market!
The EU (particularly the commission) have lost. By their own moronic stupidity of insisting on the backstop, they've actually made the very situation the backstop was intended to prevent the most likely outcome.
Without the backstop, this might have been winnable for May - particularly if the EU had made a big show of junking it in a gesture of good will once it became apparent that it would never pass. It might have taken a few go's, but May and the EU might have squeezed out a deal that scraped through Parliament. Now it's difficult to imagine what they could conceded which might resolve matters.
I want better than that.
And given how unwilling to be flexible they have been it is pretty clear they have banked on making it so bad that we remain after all as their strategy. It may yet work.
I'm not sure what the ERG'ers are celebrating - they've managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
It is no wonder they all voted against the deal