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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    I see Tom Pursglove voted against. Has he resigned his position?

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1085278300585496582
    Thanks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    Two problems:

    1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
    2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons
    1) Then we no deal and lets see Varadkar put up his hard border.

    2) I think it would. The stated reason why well over one hundred MPs voted no having been dealt with.
    You'd have 50 Tory MP's opposing it, regardless.

    The Backstop's not the only objection.
    Who would still oppose it even with the backstop dealt with? Its the backstop Boris, JRM and many others have been underpinning all their key objections on.

    The transition was agreed in principle very early on. Its the backstop that is unbearable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,738

    kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)

    David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.

    If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.

    The man's a fool.
    You have to give Clegg a large share of the blame too given that a lot of the rot set in during the coalition years.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    stjohn said:

    I haven’t yet got my head round what this unprecedentedly massive defeat is likely to mean. I’m going to sleep on it.

    Alistair. Did you reverse from your betting position that the UK would Brexit by 29/03/19?
    Yes. I flagged that I had changed my mind in my predictions at the end of last year.
    OK.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    LOL! :D
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    Scott_P said:
    At some point, and we may be there already, a vote for May's government is a vote for No Deal Brexit.
    Only a new leader can renegotiate and get an a50 extension.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:
    My husband was watching a discussion on Sky News earlier. Vernon Bogdanor apparently believes that the chance of No Deal has increased (with the caveat that we live in strange times and events could yet prove him wrong.) Suggested bounce in the value of the pound was down to traders not understanding the political intricacies.

    (EDIT: Bogdanor did suggest that we might see more ministerial resignations in the near future, however)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)

    David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.

    If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.

    The man's a fool.
    When Cameron was our MP, he would frequently pronounce that our little town - the one place that consistently voted Lib Dem in his overwhelming Tory constituency - was "disputatious" and "argumentative". He once said that "I can be flavour of the month in Westminster and everyone's applauding me, then I come back here and you tell me precisely what I've done wrong and why I'll never amount to anything."

    All very affectionately - he liked us and, as a constituency MP, we liked him: we asked him back to open our new Community Centre the other year and he gave a terrific speech. But he'd have to drive past the EU flags fluttering from houses in the town to get there.

    Should have listened to us, Dave, shouldn't you?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781

    kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)

    David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.

    If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.

    The man's a fool.
    You have to give Clegg a large share of the blame too given that a lot of the rot set in during the coalition years.
    They're both blameless. They acted with good intent, and did what they saw to be right. (How could anyone do otherwise?)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Scott_P said:
    Def buy £/$. By the end of the year it will look like the trading opportunity of a lifetime.
  • kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)
    Brexit Wounds?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Sean_F said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    Two problems:

    1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
    2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons
    1) Then we no deal and lets see Varadkar put up his hard border.

    2) I think it would. The stated reason why well over one hundred MPs voted no having been dealt with.
    You'd have 50 Tory MP's opposing it, regardless.

    The Backstop's not the only objection.
    Who would still oppose it even with the backstop dealt with? Its the backstop Boris, JRM and many others have been underpinning all their key objections on.

    The transition was agreed in principle very early on. Its the backstop that is unbearable.
    You have to accept that there are a number who distrust the EU so deeply, that anything agreed with them is, by definition, unacceptable. Then there are those who simply like moaning about it, who probably don't want to leave as that would mean writing a new speech.
  • kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency was described by David Cameron as creating a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    - David Cameron. "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    edited January 2019

    Sean_F said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    Two problems:

    1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
    2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons
    1) Then we no deal and lets see Varadkar put up his hard border.

    2) I think it would. The stated reason why well over one hundred MPs voted no having been dealt with.
    You'd have 50 Tory MP's opposing it, regardless.

    The Backstop's not the only objection.
    Who would still oppose it even with the backstop dealt with? Its the backstop Boris, JRM and many others have been underpinning all their key objections on.

    The transition was agreed in principle very early on. Its the backstop that is unbearable.
    They’re all too fired up now - frothing with the notion that only a total severance from continental Europe will satisfy the People’s Will. Nothing Theresa or anyone else brought back would have placated.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    KLOBUCHAR doing a logo pitch competition, leave your logo at a coffee shop to participate

    https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/1085299140043657217
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    After the VONC the cabinet ought to get rid of her.

    They all want the job, but not just yet. They're in too deep now.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    +1
    -1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...

    this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
    Hang on a minute lads... I've got a great idea... :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-iDJj01CvE
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Scott_P said:

    I see Tom Pursglove voted against. Has he resigned his position?

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1085278300585496582
    Only four junior payroll resignations, that’s fewer than I expected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776

    Scott_P said:
    My husband was watching a discussion on Sky News earlier. Vernon Bogdanor apparently believes that the chance of No Deal has increased (with the caveat that we live in strange times and events could yet prove him wrong.) Suggested bounce in the value of the pound was down to traders not understanding the political intricacies.

    (EDIT: Bogdanor did suggest that we might see more ministerial resignations in the near future, however)
    Peeling off 30 Labour MPs, without a CU, aint gonna be easy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    What good does a united front do if the EU still won't budge? And since they want us to remain why would they? And since half the commons also wants to remain and 1/12th to no deal, there's no chance of a united front anyway.

    Look, May has been crap, we all know that, but people have also made plenty of stupid demands of her, things that are not in her gift.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Scott_P said:
    "We believe that there remains scope to secure a Parliamentary majority for a version of May's current deal..."

    I don't understand why anybody thinks this is possible.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)

    David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.

    If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.

    The man's a fool.
    I very much doubt Cameron's memoirs will ever appear. He will never be able to find words to justify his decision to call the referendum.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    After the VONC the cabinet ought to get rid of her.

    They all want the job, but not just yet. They're in too deep now.
    Her going would let off steam and allow a new approach. In more enlightened times the men in grey suits would have sorted it by now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)

    David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.

    If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.

    The man's a fool.
    You have to give Clegg a large share of the blame too given that a lot of the rot set in during the coalition years.
    They're both blameless. They acted with good intent, and did what they saw to be right. (How could anyone do otherwise?)
    I've no doubt Theresa May will claim she acted with good intent, and did what the saw to be right.

    As did Tony Blair.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.

    That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.

    I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
    Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)

    David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.

    If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.

    The man's a fool.
    You have to give Clegg a large share of the blame too given that a lot of the rot set in during the coalition years.
    They're both blameless. They acted with good intent, and did what they saw to be right. (How could anyone do otherwise?)
    A pure heart and good intent is not enough. You have to not fuck up. That last bit's important... :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Scott_P said:
    My husband was watching a discussion on Sky News earlier. Vernon Bogdanor apparently believes that the chance of No Deal has increased (with the caveat that we live in strange times and events could yet prove him wrong.) Suggested bounce in the value of the pound was down to traders not understanding the political intricacies.

    (EDIT: Bogdanor did suggest that we might see more ministerial resignations in the near future, however)
    Peeling off 30 Labour MPs, without a CU, aint gonna be easy.
    Indeed. We've been hearing for months on this site about Labour MPs voting for this Deal, or abstaining in droves. Labour people insisted it would be minuscule. Turns out Labour people know the Labour Party better than PB Tories do.
    Who could have guessed?
  • viewcode said:

    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    +1
    -1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...

    this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
    Hang on a minute lads... I've got a great idea... :)

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-iDJj01CvE
    You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited January 2019

    I haven’t yet got my head round what this unprecedentedly massive defeat is likely to mean. I’m going to sleep on it.

    I thought this interesting:

    https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1085256577161052160?s=19

    So even the ERG weren't willing to back the Deal with a softening of the Irish Backstop. They cannot be won round.

    Only an appeal to the Labour front bench or No Deal Brexit.
  • GIN1138 said:
    DD needs to go away and shut up - he’s doing his legacy nothing but damage with these blurtings.

  • Remember folks this is the man who will ensure the supply of meds and foods aren't interrupted in the event of No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1085300662143987712
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    I don't think there will be any "cross party consensus" - They're all like ferrets in a sack. And time is literally up...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited January 2019
    Maybe Corbyn should watch the Darkest Hour for the next move.

    We cannot work with May, but will work with a different PM.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    If Beth is correct and we somehow end up on the EFTA train then it will be a good result.
    I've been saying for a long time we might end up there be design or accident. It has always seemed to be the closest to what the average person might want for our relationship with the EU.

    That said I expect a second referendum and Remain to win. But in no way will that resolve the EU question, and quite frankly I expect violent opposition to it.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    edited January 2019
    I can't see any way the opposition parties come round in cross party talks. Corbyn's Labour will never officially throw a bone to May, and to get Labour MPs backing it would need much more movement towards Norway+, exactly the type of deal that would tear apart the tory party. May won't do that, and she herself has made ending FoM the single "good" talking point from her deal, it is the definition of brexit for her.

    Parliament won't allow no deal. The MPs that voted to sabotage no deal know the choice they made, you don't vote for that then row back - they will be ready to VONC the government at a later date (not tomorrow) if no alternative is forthcoming, with an aim of GONU but accepting that Corbyn may be result.

    If Corbyn can see a way to become PM he will bend whichever way he needs to on Brexit, be that a second ref, extending A50 or a "temporary" revocation.

    Feels like the best chance for Brexit now is to win a 2nd ref (because i'm not at all sure that Remain has a second ref in the bag).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    I see Tom Pursglove voted against. Has he resigned his position?

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1085278300585496582
    Only four junior payroll resignations, that’s fewer than I expected.
    Which makes the number of backbenchers opposed so much more surprising.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    My husband was watching a discussion on Sky News earlier. Vernon Bogdanor apparently believes that the chance of No Deal has increased (with the caveat that we live in strange times and events could yet prove him wrong.) Suggested bounce in the value of the pound was down to traders not understanding the political intricacies.

    (EDIT: Bogdanor did suggest that we might see more ministerial resignations in the near future, however)
    Peeling off 30 Labour MPs, without a CU, aint gonna be easy.
    Indeed. We've been hearing for months on this site about Labour MPs voting for this Deal, or abstaining in droves. Labour people insisted it would be minuscule. Turns out Labour people know the Labour Party better than PB Tories do.
    Who could have guessed?
    I'm on record as saying I couldn't understand why ANY would vote for it. It just invited a word of pain. The only ones who might consider it must have already decided to retire.
  • viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We believe that there remains scope to secure a Parliamentary majority for a version of May's current deal..."

    I don't understand why anybody thinks this is possible.
    The City expect a cross party agreement that will stop no deal and move to a softer brexit or even remain
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    A rather minority view in the PLP, it would seem!
  • viewcode said:

    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    +1
    -1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...

    this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
    Hang on a minute lads... I've got a great idea... :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-iDJj01CvE
    You were only supposed to blow the bloody backstops off!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I don't think there will be any "cross party consensus" - They're all like ferrets in a sack. And time is literally up...
    Indeed. Theoretically its soft brexit, remain or no deal, but there's too much political gain for the various sides (or they believe so) that the obvious option of cross party support at this late stage, meaning softer brexit, won't get off the ground.

    It's time to stop pretending. Its no brexit or no deal, that's it.

    What a choice. Good night all.
    RobD said:

    A rather minority view in the PLP, it would seem!
    The rest are awaiting the Jezziah.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_P said:
    My husband was watching a discussion on Sky News earlier. Vernon Bogdanor apparently believes that the chance of No Deal has increased (with the caveat that we live in strange times and events could yet prove him wrong.) Suggested bounce in the value of the pound was down to traders not understanding the political intricacies.

    (EDIT: Bogdanor did suggest that we might see more ministerial resignations in the near future, however)
    Peeling off 30 Labour MPs, without a CU, aint gonna be easy.
    Indeed. We've been hearing for months on this site about Labour MPs voting for this Deal, or abstaining in droves. Labour people insisted it would be minuscule. Turns out Labour people know the Labour Party better than PB Tories do.
    Who could have guessed?
    I'm on record as saying I couldn't understand why ANY would vote for it. It just invited a word of pain. The only ones who might consider it must have already decided to retire.
    When the Government has only one discernible policy, and an opposition MP votes for it, it may be regarded as a cause for consideration as to why one is an opposition MP in the first place. Surprised it was 3 in the end TBH.
  • Remember folks this is the man who will ensure the supply of meds and foods aren't interrupted in the event of No Deal.

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1085300662143987712

    Grayling went to Cambridge and was chosen by a Tory association to be its candidate. What the fuck does that say about the selection procedures of these organisations?

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Foxy said:

    I haven’t yet got my head round what this unprecedentedly massive defeat is likely to mean. I’m going to sleep on it.

    I thought this interesting:

    https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1085256577161052160?s=19

    So even the ERG weren't willing to back the Deal with a softening of the Irish Backstop. They cannot be won round.

    Only an appeal to the Labour front bench or No Deal Brexit.
    It’s Grayling.

    I’m on the fucking pig ignorant side of the bet.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Who would still oppose it even with the backstop dealt with?

    Some people have been so virulently against the EU for so long that they cannot accept any deal with it and will find any reason to object to it, even if those reasons are ridiculous. Some of the MPs fall into that category.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    "We believe that there remains scope to secure a Parliamentary majority for a version of May's current deal..."

    I don't understand why anybody thinks this is possible.
    The City expect a cross party agreement that will stop no deal and move to a softer brexit or even remain
    I hope I don't bore you by repeating myself, but I think the pessimists(?) on here are correct: the most likely outcome is no-deal. I don't see anything stopping it unless May asks for an extension, and I don't think she will.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Peston talking up a double split and a gnu.

    Not likely but the thing I like about Pezza is he is prepared to speculate and be provocative.

    Unlike Laura The Borer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776

    I can't see any way the opposition parties come round in cross party talks. Corbyn's Labour will never officially throw a bone to May, and to get Labour MPs backing it would need much more movement towards Norway+, exactly the type of deal that would tear apart the tory party. May won't do that, and she herself has made ending FoM the single "good" talking point from her deal, it is the definition of brexit for her.

    Parliament won't allow no deal. The MPs that voted to sabotage no deal know the choice they made, you don't vote for that then row back - they will be ready to VONC the government at a later date (not tomorrow) if no alternative is forthcoming, with an aim of GONU but accepting that Corbyn may be result.

    If Corbyn can see a way to become PM he will bend whichever way he needs to on Brexit, be that a second ref, extending A50 or a "temporary" revocation.

    Feels like the best chance for Brexit now is to win a 2nd ref (because i'm not at all sure that Remain has a second ref in the bag).

    Farage seemed to be coming to same conclusion when he got extended airtime on BBC with Andrew Neil (five guests - Farage did almost all the talking).
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    +1
    -1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...

    this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
    I wasn’t aware one could negate the teeth-grindingly awful PB meme of +1.

    I’ll submit another -1.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    So if Deal+Remain Referendum somehow loses zero Tories, you need to swing 230/2 = 115. SNP+LD gets you like 45, so add that to 75 Lab and you just squeak it (120). But you'd lose more than zero Tories...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Just laid off my bet from November that we would not leave on 29th March.

    Always nice to emerge all green.
  • Scott_P said:
    I see that front page quotes both Rees-Mogg and Corbyn gloating over Therea’s humiliation. Is that where the Tory party really wants to be?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Anazina said:

    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    +1
    -1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...

    this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
    I wasn’t aware one could negate the teeth-grindingly awful PB meme of +1.

    I’ll submit another -1.
    I too thought that meme was unspoofable.

    Oh, my coat?

    :smiley::D
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Scott_P said:
    From a tactical point of view it would be really helpful if any non-british person would stfu abut a second referendum...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I see that front page quotes both Rees-Mogg and Corbyn gloating over Therea’s humiliation. Is that where the Tory party really wants to be?

    It's where the headbangers want to be.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Anazina said:

    Peston talking up a double split and a gnu.

    Not likely but the thing I like about Pezza is he is prepared to speculate and be provocative.

    Unlike Laura The Borer.

    It's possible. If standing order 14 remains in force and Theresa May won't budge on her Withdrawal Agreement, then pro-EU MPs will have to think of creative ways to get rid of her. Otherwise, the clock runs down and they either have to swallow the Deal or watch Hard Brexit happen.

    A gross failure to reach agreement followed by Deal or No Deal, or a small breakaway by Tory Hard Remainers (eight should be sufficient) both seem more likely, but a major realignment isn't impossible. The barriers to it are high: party loyalty, abandoning the party name and organisation to the rump left behind, and the need for the move to be co-ordinated so that a trap isn't sprung (where only one side splits and it ends up being routed by the other in a GE.) But there are also advantages for centrist MPs - jettisoning the ERG wing on one side, escaping the control of Corbyn on the other - so if they get desperate enough then they might just end up giving it a go.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    edited January 2019

    Just laid off my bet from November that we would not leave on 29th March.

    Always nice to emerge all green.

    Nobody ever died from taking a profit early. Well done.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Scott_P said:
    As, I pointed out earlier, Boris has already explained the Tory party position on business.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's cheddar cheese with pineapple on a stick on Newsnight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    viewcode said:

    Just laid off my bet from November that we would not leave on 29th March.

    Always nice to emerge all green.

    Nobody ever died from taking a profit early. Well done.
    cheers.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    edited January 2019
    I think if MPs were honest we would see that the only thing there's really a majority for is Remain. Parliament has always been at odds with the country in that regard, they were never 50/50 on the EU.

    As a body they offered us a referendum where one outcome was unacceptable to the majority of MPs. Everything that has followed has been driven by that simple fact. If they could get away with it they'd revoke and Remain now, a 2nd Referendum will merely serve as political cover for what MPs really want to do.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited January 2019
    How clever that the ERG motley coup pre Xmas means TMay is safe in her own party for 11 months still..... Soft brexit please....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    DD still seeing unicorns in front of his eyes, as he claims, yet again, that German car manufacturers will force EU to renegotiated.

    Did he actually go to Brussels at all?
  • Scott_P said:
    Farage did the same on Neil's programme earlier.... Nothing has changed for some leavers clearly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Anazina said:

    tyson said:

    Sandpit said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    +1
    -1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...

    this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
    I wasn’t aware one could negate the teeth-grindingly awful PB meme of +1.

    I’ll submit another -1.
    You're a hypocrite - a few minutes earlier you were chortling over the Cameron 'chaos with Ed M' tweet meme. You don't dislike memes, you just dislike some others like. Why do you think your memes deserve to be chuckled at but others condemned?

    And +1 isn't even a meme for crying out loud. It's just people indicating they really liked a statement, as there's no like button.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Scott_P said:
    Utterly incredible.

    These people are just plain deluded.
  • Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit

    If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave

    On the other hand Corbyn was poor at the dispatch box today and frankly looks out of his depth

    Where is the saviour in a political sense for our once great country
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.

    May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.

    [Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]

    Two problems:

    1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
    2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons
    1) Then we no deal and lets see Varadkar put up his hard border.

    2) I think it would. The stated reason why well over one hundred MPs voted no having been dealt with.
    You'd have 50 Tory MP's opposing it, regardless.

    The Backstop's not the only objection.
    Who would still oppose it even with the backstop dealt with? Its the backstop Boris, JRM and many others have been underpinning all their key objections on.

    The transition was agreed in principle very early on. Its the backstop that is unbearable.
    1. Continuity Remain (Grieve, Allen ,Soubry, Wollaston, Gyimah, Lee, Jo Johnson, Bebb,)

    2. Ex-ministers, furious about leaving office (Fallon, Villiers, , Shapps, Hands, Greening, Collins, Mitchell, )

    3. The Thick (Bridgen, Wiggin, Baron, Patel, Syms, Jenkyns, Francois, Bradley, David Davis, Duddridge, Philip Davies, IDS, Bone, Holloborne,

    4. The opportunists (Boris, Raab, McVey, Pursglove)
  • Scott_P said:
    Utterly incredible.

    These people are just plain deluded.
    Is this where we all put our face in our hands and cry
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:
    They must have a lot on their plates, they've resolutely failed to do so for years.

    The bottom line of that particularly unicorn fantasy is that if we say to the EU we are prepared to suffer the consequences of walking away they will believe us, but when they say they are prepared to suffer the consequences of walking away we don't believe them because they could not possibly mean it as who would be so foolish as to do that?

    Or even more simply, that politicians on the other side won't play politics, even as we complain about their playing politics. And they would never prioritise things other than economic impacts, even as we do that very thing.

    Idiocy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776

    Well a historic day and Parliament have made a complete horlicks of brexit

    If TM wins tomorrow and carries on as PM I will admit I have no idea how she squares the circle between remain and leave

    On the other hand Corbyn was poor at the dispatch box today and frankly looks out of his depth

    Where is the saviour in a political sense for our once great country

    A very good question Big_G.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Scott_P said:
    Theresa's got a "Here's Johnny!" face on the left hand picture.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    DD still seeing unicorns in front of his eyes, as he claims, yet again, that German car manufacturers will force EU to renegotiated.

    Did he actually go to Brussels at all?

    He was sat in Green Park eating a sandwich and doing a sudoku when everyone thought he was in Bruxelles like one of those blokes that get made redundant and can't tell their Mrs.
  • Scott_P said:
    He hasn't displayed any to get brexit over the line

    I think that shortly TM will go to Brussels, some improvements may be offered, then the EU will state this is the end state of the deal, will not re-open discussions with anyone including labour, and that A50 can only be deferred until the 18th April, the date the EU elections commence
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Peston talking up a double split and a gnu.

    Not likely but the thing I like about Pezza is he is prepared to speculate and be provocative.

    Unlike Laura The Borer.

    It's possible. If standing order 14 remains in force and Theresa May won't budge on her Withdrawal Agreement, then pro-EU MPs will have to think of creative ways to get rid of her. Otherwise, the clock runs down and they either have to swallow the Deal or watch Hard Brexit happen.

    A gross failure to reach agreement followed by Deal or No Deal, or a small breakaway by Tory Hard Remainers (eight should be sufficient) both seem more likely, but a major realignment isn't impossible. The barriers to it are high: party loyalty, abandoning the party name and organisation to the rump left behind, and the need for the move to be co-ordinated so that a trap isn't sprung (where only one side splits and it ends up being routed by the other in a GE.) But there are also advantages for centrist MPs - jettisoning the ERG wing on one side, escaping the control of Corbyn on the other - so if they get desperate enough then they might just end up giving it a go.
    They can split in the Commons and give themselves three years to sort out the details.

    Fantasy politics. But, as you say, who knows?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1085312609442844672

    Important point: so long as Corbyn keeps running confidence votes on a loop, he doesn't have to admit that his attempt to secure a General Election has failed - so the party's policy of moving on to look at other options (e.g. the dreaded second referendum) can be safely set fire to and dropped into the nearest bin.

    And all the time, the countdown to No Deal continues...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    DD still seeing unicorns in front of his eyes, as he claims, yet again, that German car manufacturers will force EU to renegotiated.

    Did he actually go to Brussels at all?


    Don’t forget the “French wine producers”.

    I am fond of the idea of agricultural workers in the Medoc saving our bacon, but am not holding out great hopes.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    DD still seeing unicorns in front of his eyes, as he claims, yet again, that German car manufacturers will force EU to renegotiated.

    Did he actually go to Brussels at all?

    He was sat in Green Park eating a sandwich and doing a sudoku when everyone thought he was in Bruxelles like one of those blokes that get made redundant and can't tell their Mrs.
    Could he do sudoku ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited January 2019
    So, with today's defeat it seems we have movement by May. How much we'll find out. Soooo......

    1) May wants her deal.

    2) Labour (officially) wants a perma customs union.

    3) The EU won't touch the WA, but there's room for some sort of letter of intent on the direction of future travel wrt the trade agreement.


    Norway+CU as a commonly-declared intended future state, based on the WA in the short term? Corbyn and May can both claim victory. No crash-exit.
This discussion has been closed.