To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.
Add to that, that the extension of A50 is not the UK’s prerogative, and relies on unanimous approval from the EU27. Also that the EU Parliament is dissolved on 23rd April for the elections, not sitting until 2nd July.
It is worth noting, though, that (1) the parliament isn't involved in the extension process, and (2) the EU27 reaches unanimous agreement on 1,000s of things every week. If 26 countries want a two month extension, and there's a single holdout, then there would be enormous pressure brought to bear on them.
I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
There's something to be said for a long extension without closure. It pushes the cliff edge back without changing the UK's strategic options one bit, and the European elections will provide an opportunity to further deflate the 2016 mandate. Populists in the UK could even do a lot worse than in other major countries.
The problem with this approach is the European elections would see massive votes for whatever Frangest nukip appears. They won the 2014 elections, with a stab in the back mantra they'd do so again, the Tory vote would collapse.
It's be sold as a mandate for no deal
Faragist Nukip would struggle to do better than 2014. They're more likely to lose MEPs, and the story of the election would be the success of an ad hoc pro-EU alliance.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
May winning the VONC looks odds on though, doesn't it?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Yes, you are right. It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC. Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
There's something to be said for a long extension without closure. It pushes the cliff edge back without changing the UK's strategic options one bit, and the European elections will provide an opportunity to further deflate the 2016 mandate. Populists in the UK could even do a lot worse than in other major countries.
The problem with this approach is the European elections would see massive votes for whatever Frangest nukip appears. They won the 2014 elections, with a stab in the back mantra they'd do so again, the Tory vote would collapse.
It's be sold as a mandate for no deal
Faragist Nukip would struggle to do better than 2014. They're more likely to lose MEPs, and the story of the election would be the success of an ad hoc pro-EU alliance.
Strongly disagree; differential turnout would kill them.
Also, what kind of campaign do you think Corbyn would run?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?
Perhaps. Who gets to ask?
The government doesn't cease to function in the event of a VONC.
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Interesting. But there's still a Prime Minister during this time, no? He/she can still request an extension. Plus, even if they didn't, I think there's enough time, eg the last one was announced on April 18th then took place on June 8th, so even allowing a couple of weeks to not form a government, you should be able to squeak it in before Brexit Day, then the next guy can ask for the extension.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
May winning the VONC looks odds on though, doesn't it?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?
Perhaps. Who gets to ask?
The government doesn't cease to function in the event of a VONC.
True. But would it have authority to ask at this time? Edmund’s objection is better: there may still be enough time anyway.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Yes, you are right. It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC. Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?
Perhaps. Who gets to ask?
The government doesn't cease to function in the event of a VONC.
True. But would it have authority to ask at this time? Edmund’s objection is better: there may still be enough time anyway.
Theoretically only. What happens with a hung parliament, for example ?
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
That would be an election they didn’t get to run as a Conservative in, though.
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.
Add to that, that the extension of A50 is not the UK’s prerogative, and relies on unanimous approval from the EU27. Also that the EU Parliament is dissolved on 23rd April for the elections, not sitting until 2nd July.
It is worth noting, though, that (1) the parliament isn't involved in the extension process, and (2) the EU27 reaches unanimous agreement on 1,000s of things every week. If 26 countries want a two month extension, and there's a single holdout, then there would be enormous pressure brought to bear on them.
I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so. .
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
It might actually be easier to get a 2-year extension than a 3-month one. At least with 2 years it feels like something might come out differently rather than just being between the same rock and the same hard place a few months down the line, and for a lot of politicians a 2-year can kick would be enough to make it someone else's problem.
Nothing would materially change in the sense of a deal being achieved and the referendum being honoured.
Watching Grieve last night being asked if there was any form of Brexit deal he would support he came up with the scenario of the very softest of Norway type deals. And then he said he couldn't even vote for that because it was so close to remaining that we may as well remain.
The remain majority in parliament is never going to reconcile itself to leaving which is why I think a GE with a cast iron manifesto commitment on the Tory side to implement May's deal is the only way forward.
Remainer MP's who don't feel they could honour such a commitment would be perfectly entitled to stand down.
Just watched that clip with Richard Burgon doing his bit to help a vote of no confidence fail. The man is a clueless oaf.
As long as Theresa May stays in power, Jeremy Corbyn doesn't have to dirty his hands with Brexit. Whilst the Labour leadership has to pretend it wants a General Election now, it is overwhelmingly to its advantage for the VoNC to fail.
Ditto the ERG. As long as May continues to dig her heels in, the clock keeps running down whilst the Remainers fight over what's best to do next. Granted things become a lot more uncomfortable for them if standing order 14 is amended and the Remainers can attempt to capture the Parliamentary timetable without having to get rid of the PM first, but in that case she would probably attempt to save the Deal by offering a referendum or (perhaps more likely) resigning in an attempt to force a GE. Then the ERG wing would still have an opportunity to leave, albeit on terms that they don't particularly like. Either way, if they stay put then the next Tory leader is very likely to be, whilst not of their faction, someone more sympathetic to them.
If the Conservative Party is going to split, it's more likely to be through the defection of some of the Remainers. Should the standing orders remain as they are, they may find that they have no choice.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.
Morning folks. Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
It might actually be easier to get a 2-year extension than a 3-month one. At least with 2 years it feels like something might come out differently rather than just being between the same rock and the same hard place a few months down the line, and for a lot of politicians a 2-year can kick would be enough to make it someone else's problem.
Nothing would materially change in the sense of a deal being achieved and the referendum being honoured.
Watching Grieve last night being asked if there was any form of Brexit deal he would support he came up with the scenario of the very softest of Norway type deals. And then he said he couldn't even vote for that because it was so close to remaining that we may as well remain.
The remain majority in parliament is never going to reconcile itself to leaving which is why I think a GE with a cast iron manifesto commitment on the Tory side to implement May's deal is the only way forward.
Remainer MP's who don't feel they could honour such a commitment would be perfectly entitled to stand down.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seemskick it.
A lot ofquickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Yes, you are right. It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC. Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
That article is gibberish. Nothing new there - as I say, nobody knows anything. Maybe not even May, although as each stage progresses it is a fancy of mine to see a mad architect controlling each step toward wherever we end up.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.
Morning folks. Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
Nevertheless he would surely want to win the VONC. If it takes us to a GE, Labour has another month or two to continue to cling to its unicorn Brexit whilst trying desperately to talk about anything else. When they lose the VONC they will come under huge pressure to face the reality of the decision ahead of us.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree with the first two sentences.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.
Morning folks. Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
If he doesn't want power, why did he tell so many populist lies in his manifesto? Or for that matter, about his links with neo-Nazis and the Russian government?
It can't be because he genuinely believed them, because not even he can be that stupid. It might be because he is a pathological liar, which he clearly is, but I don't think it was. He was nakedly angling for votes.
Therefore, it seems likely he does want power. Heaven help us all if he gets it.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.
Morning folks. Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
Nevertheless he would surely want to win the VONC. If it takes us to a GE, Labour has another month or two to continue to cling to its unicorn Brexit whilst trying desperately to talk about anything else. When they lose the VONC they will come under huge pressure to face the reality of the decision ahead of us.
No - because his manifesto will still commit to delivering Brexit and his own MPs will be split. Being in opposition suits him.
The big danger for Corbyn is I think all parties are going to be blamed for this fiasco whatever their actual role. Labour are certainly going to suffer given their size and profile.
It includes the DUP - karma's a bitch - but may well include the SNP as well given they superficially look to be forcing No Deal to whip up a head of steam for independence.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that “leaving the EU” implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree with the first two sentences.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.
It's also impossible to fix as how do you ensure the few people forced to take this current crop of insane exams aren't penalised...
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree with the first two sentences.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.
It's also impossible to fix as how do you ensure the few people forced to take this current crop of insane exams aren't penalised...
Without reforming markschemes and thinning out the curriculum content, you can't. It will have to happen in the end given the disasters that are now piling up so thick and fast. But I don't think anyone is going to do it in the next couple of years, so I'm afraid it won't help your daughter.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree with the first two sentences.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
To be fair, it was intended as a joke. I agree that if we have to Brexit, it should be done slowly and sensibly, disengaging over a long period.
The trouble is that this is a rational solution to an emotional problem, and one that isn't politically sustainable. To spend ten years or more treading such a path, with a bunch of ultras condemning every compromise with reality on one side and with the other side pointing to every bit of damage being done as evidence that we should turn back, we are going to fall off that tightrope to one side or the other well before we reach the end.
Much as the logic points toward a slow soft Brexit as being the appropriate course, politically it seems to me that the most likely end points are either Remain or falling out. And since the latter would be immensely damaging, with only the silver lining that it would expose the Brexiter nonsense once and for all, we are surely better off remaining.
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Interesting. But there's still a Prime Minister during this time, no? He/she can still request an extension. Plus, even if they didn't, I think there's enough time, eg the last one was announced on April 18th then took place on June 8th, so even allowing a couple of weeks to not form a government, you should be able to squeak it in before Brexit Day, then the next guy can ask for the extension.
The last date to call a General election for March 28th is Feb 21st - the last date for calling it on March 21st is Feb 14.
Were the vote to be lost today - there would be 2 weeks to try and form a government and the vote would be on March 7th / 14th depending on how much messing around is required between no Government after 14 days and it being called.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree with the first two sentences.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.
I think we’ll end up with BINO or Remain and the Tories will become ungovernable.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.
Morning folks. Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
Nevertheless he would surely want to win the VONC. If it takes us to a GE, Labour has another month or two to continue to cling to its unicorn Brexit whilst trying desperately to talk about anything else. When they lose the VONC they will come under huge pressure to face the reality of the decision ahead of us.
No - because his manifesto will still commit to delivering Brexit and his own MPs will be split. Being in opposition suits him.
The big danger for Corbyn is I think all parties are going to be blamed for this fiasco whatever their actual role. Labour are certainly going to suffer given their size and profile.
It includes the DUP - karma's a bitch - but may well include the SNP as well given they superficially look to be forcing No Deal to whip up a head of steam for independence.
So a large number of Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP all want no deal. Fantastic, let’s get on with it!
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree with the first two sentences.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.
I am contemplating greening up this morning because I have absolutely no idea what is going on. My suspicion is that Betfair's Brexit by 29/3 market is a proxy bet on Theresa May not resigning in the next couple of weeks but, well, your guess is as good as mine, and probably a damn sight better.
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.
It will be a very important story; whether anyone takes notice of it is another matter.
I’m also sceptical that this will be a genuine change in the inspection framework, as opposed to bolting a few good wishes on top of the existing one. We will see.
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.
Morning folks. Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
If he doesn't want power, why did he tell so many populist lies in his manifesto? Or for that matter, about his links with neo-Nazis and the Russian government?
It can't be because he genuinely believed them, because not even he can be that stupid. It might be because he is a pathological liar, which he clearly is, but I don't think it was. He was nakedly angling for votes.
Therefore, it seems likely he does want power. Heaven help us all if he gets it.
I suspect that, like one or two other politicians, he's managed to get a ride on a tiger and doesn't know how to get off without being eaten.
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I'm still slightly in shock about the scale of last night's defeat. It was like a fantasy rerun of the Iraq vote where the opposition did it's job and MPs saw through the PMs tactics. Perhaps I've taken managing my expectations against what I want to happen too far recently. Still the sheer numerical scale of it still seems astontishing 12 hours on. Obviously I'm delighted to the extent you can be delighted by anything by this continuing catastrophe but after the last few years I'll take what scraps I can.
As for the VONC let's hope for the notional majority under the CaS deal. May deserves no more and Corbyn deserves no less. Another day of the national enema. With 2 x VoNC in May and 1 x MV ticked off the list we may slowly get somewhere.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
Yet there are still people out there who will not see it.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.
Macron is doing a meet the mayors tour of France, yesterday he was in Normandy and on his feet taking questions for 7 hours. While some issues remain tense he had a better reception than some expected but is also promising to reverse key pieces of legislation such as the wealth tax reforms.
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.
Didn't stop Trump.
The Democrats could be about to make the same mistake the Republicans made last time - to have too many candidates and allow a couple of big personalities to dominate the early debates and set the scene for the nomination.
They need to agree on no more than half a dozen nominations, but everyone wants the job and thinks they’re in with a chance against Trump.
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.
He's so white, male and generic Dem I don't see how he could lose head to head vs Trump.
He secures the rust belt, isn't a woman so keeps mysoginists onside, he's a slam dunk.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
Leave the EU is no more a prescription for action than 'go on holiday'. You won't get anywhere until you have decided if you want to go skiing or have a cruise.
This is where the problem is. It is in the heads of the 17.4M leavers. Nowhere else. If they all agreed we'd have a way out. They don't and won't. Admit it.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.
Much as I disagree with the desire to destroy the EU, the idea that anti EU sentiment has dropped since the referendum.is clearly wrong. Poland, Italy and Hungary are all becoming increasingly anti EU. It may not be at the level of yet wanting to Leave but anti EU sentiment is definitely on the rise.
It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
I agree with the first two sentences.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.
I think we’ll end up with BINO or Remain and the Tories will become ungovernable.
You should be pleased.
I would be very happy with that outcome, but I cannot see May agreeing either of those, and I do not think that she will resign.
No Deal is the default, and increasingly likely by 29/3.
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.
Nobody knows nothing!
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5% EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95% EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
Yes, you are right. It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC. Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
Anything that can be dressed up as Brexit, yes.
I think in the broad population people would be very surprised if we turned out that we Remained. A lot assume that the politicians have been told what to do / we’ve Brexited already. Finding out that they’ve been ignored will massively increase disaffection with politics and the political class
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.
I am LIVID.
better than 500, 1 and 1000 !
That would be Gove. The best possible argument as to why it's not only the muppets who voted against last night who need to be fired from Mr Dancer's trebuchet into Outer Space. It really is all of them.
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.
He's so white, male and generic Dem I don't see how he could lose head to head vs Trump.
He secures the rust belt, isn't a woman so keeps mysoginists onside, he's a slam dunk.
Probably can't win the Primaries though.
As the only white male candidate, he may have some novelty value, and he does also score well on the weird name factor.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
Leave the EU is no more a prescription for action than 'go on holiday'. You won't get anywhere until you have decided if you want to go skiing or have a cruise.
This is where the problem is. It is in the heads of the 17.4M leavers. Nowhere else. If they all agreed we'd have a way out. They don't and won't. Admit it.
Why can't we have a ski/cruise holiday? I'm convinced we could've secured this with tougher negotiators. Travel agents simply need to find a way to get a ship up a mountain. The ball is in Thomas Cook's court on this.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.
Much as I disagree with the desire to destroy the EU, the idea that anti EU sentiment has dropped since the referendum.is clearly wrong. Poland, Italy and Hungary are all becoming increasingly anti EU. It may not be at the level of yet wanting to Leave but anti EU sentiment is definitely on the rise.
Public support for the EU across Europe is mostly at record highs. Politicians like Le Pen and the Italian 5S who used to talk about leaving the EU have tacked away from it. They are all looking at the fiasco we have brought down upon ourselves and staying well clear.
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.
Much as I disagree with the desire to destroy the EU, the idea that anti EU sentiment has dropped since the referendum.is clearly wrong. Poland, Italy and Hungary are all becoming increasingly anti EU. It may not be at the level of yet wanting to Leave but anti EU sentiment is definitely on the rise.
Public support for the EU across Europe is mostly at record highs. Politicians like Le Pen and the Italian 5S who used to talk about leaving the EU have tacked away from it. They are all looking at the fiasco we have brought down upon ourselves and staying well clear.
How very anglo centric
most of them have little interest in our issues, they have too many domestic problems of their own.
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
That funny Welsh clip makes a point that I hadn’t considered - public support.
Assuming May’s deal is off the table, what form of Brexit do the public want? There has been no real debate or promotion of “Norway+” or Corbyn’s perma-customs Union.
Scarily, most Brexiters now probably want a No Deal.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
Roman numerals do, I suppose, have to be taught somewhere, so people can understand old-fashioned clocks and the copyright years at the end of films, not to mention TSE's jokes. Sticking them into maths lessons is probably more a sign that Whitehall (and Westminster) are determined to control every moment of schoolchildren's days, despite the rhetoric of setting schools free.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.
I am LIVID.
But you do know them for 50, 4 and 499
Actually, the Romans wrote 4 as IIII. IV is a Victorian convention, as is ID.
Simon Coveney: “Yes, but we can’t get into where they’ll be at this stage. They could be in the sea, they could be... But once you start talking about checks anywhere near the border, people will start delving into that and all of a sudden we’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”
Shane Ross: “Yeah, but I didn’t know what to say.”
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
Sadly we've moved away from disagreement on policy; opponents are now demonised, everything is a matter of good versus evil; anyone who disagrees you is basically Hitler.
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum. Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
Roman numerals do, I suppose, have to be taught somewhere, so people can understand old-fashioned clocks and the copyright years at the end of films, not to mention TSE's jokes. Sticking them into maths lessons is probably more a sign that Whitehall (and Westminster) are determined to control every moment of schoolchildren's days, despite the rhetoric of setting schools free.
It's rather a sign of Gove attempting to recreate what he recalls of his own education and impose it on an entire nation, several decades on.
Mandating the teaching of Roman numerals to primary school kids struggling with maths is an exercise in utter futility.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Simon Coveney: “Yes, but we can’t get into where they’ll be at this stage. They could be in the sea, they could be... But once you start talking about checks anywhere near the border, people will start delving into that and all of a sudden we’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”
Shane Ross: “Yeah, but I didn’t know what to say.”
Going well for Leo then. When’s he up for re-election again?
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
I am reminded of the coalition discussions I led on my council when we held the balance. Despite agreeing with more of Labour's objectives, they were impossible to deal with; like Burgon they simply viewed it as somehow our responsibility to vote with them and couldn't really comprehend why we would need them to address some of our priorities. And they used their tortuous internal processes to make any sort of progress difficult. Whereas the Tories, despite our greater disagreements, were able and willing to do a deal, and it stuck for the whole four year term.
Simon Coveney: “Yes, but we can’t get into where they’ll be at this stage. They could be in the sea, they could be... But once you start talking about checks anywhere near the border, people will start delving into that and all of a sudden we’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”
Shane Ross: “Yeah, but I didn’t know what to say.”
Going well for Leo then. When’s he up for re-election again?
Any time soon
His problem is he needs Brexit put to bed before he calls it, yet has made settling Brexit problematic.
Blazing away at both feet with an AK47 by the looks of it.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
Comments
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC.
Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
Also, what kind of campaign do you think Corbyn would run?
https://www.politico.eu/article/british-politics-goes-over-a-cliff-theresa-may-brexit-vote/
Which seems delusional.
Burgon doing his level best to make a rainbow coalition unworkable. Well done that man.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Watching Grieve last night being asked if there was any form of Brexit deal he would support he came up with the scenario of the very softest of Norway type deals. And then he said he couldn't even vote for that because it was so close to remaining that we may as well remain.
The remain majority in parliament is never going to reconcile itself to leaving which is why I think a GE with a cast iron manifesto commitment on the Tory side to implement May's deal is the only way forward.
Remainer MP's who don't feel they could honour such a commitment would be perfectly entitled to stand down.
Ditto the ERG. As long as May continues to dig her heels in, the clock keeps running down whilst the Remainers fight over what's best to do next. Granted things become a lot more uncomfortable for them if standing order 14 is amended and the Remainers can attempt to capture the Parliamentary timetable without having to get rid of the PM first, but in that case she would probably attempt to save the Deal by offering a referendum or (perhaps more likely) resigning in an attempt to force a GE. Then the ERG wing would still have an opportunity to leave, albeit on terms that they don't particularly like. Either way, if they stay put then the next Tory leader is very likely to be, whilst not of their faction, someone more sympathetic to them.
If the Conservative Party is going to split, it's more likely to be through the defection of some of the Remainers. Should the standing orders remain as they are, they may find that they have no choice.
Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
That’s a corker.
Pathetic fallacy.
It can't be because he genuinely believed them, because not even he can be that stupid. It might be because he is a pathological liar, which he clearly is, but I don't think it was. He was nakedly angling for votes.
Therefore, it seems likely he does want power. Heaven help us all if he gets it.
The big danger for Corbyn is I think all parties are going to be blamed for this fiasco whatever their actual role. Labour are certainly going to suffer given their size and profile.
It includes the DUP - karma's a bitch - but may well include the SNP as well given they superficially look to be forcing No Deal to whip up a head of steam for independence.
https://twitter.com/bbcwalesnews/status/1085229507131424768?s=21
Ofsted promises fairer deal for schools in tough areas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46881787
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.
And many? I doubt that.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.
https://twitter.com/elliothannon/status/1085359069513293824
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.
The trouble is that this is a rational solution to an emotional problem, and one that isn't politically sustainable. To spend ten years or more treading such a path, with a bunch of ultras condemning every compromise with reality on one side and with the other side pointing to every bit of damage being done as evidence that we should turn back, we are going to fall off that tightrope to one side or the other well before we reach the end.
Much as the logic points toward a slow soft Brexit as being the appropriate course, politically it seems to me that the most likely end points are either Remain or falling out. And since the latter would be immensely damaging, with only the silver lining that it would expose the Brexiter nonsense once and for all, we are surely better off remaining.
Were the vote to be lost today - there would be 2 weeks to try and form a government and the vote would be on March 7th / 14th depending on how much messing around is required between no Government after 14 days and it being called.
You should be pleased.
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=19
I’m also sceptical that this will be a genuine change in the inspection framework, as opposed to bolting a few good wishes on top of the existing one. We will see.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
As for the VONC let's hope for the notional majority under the CaS deal. May deserves no more and Corbyn deserves no less. Another day of the national enema. With 2 x VoNC in May and 1 x MV ticked off the list we may slowly get somewhere.
I am LIVID.
This is the CDXCI time of saying it.
Macron is doing a meet the mayors tour of France, yesterday he was in Normandy and on his feet taking questions for 7 hours. While some issues remain tense he had a better reception than some expected but is also promising to reverse key pieces of legislation such as the wealth tax reforms.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/15/01002-20190115ARTFIG00389-le-debat-marathon-d-emmanuel-macron-avec-les-maires.php
They need to agree on no more than half a dozen nominations, but everyone wants the job and thinks they’re in with a chance against Trump.
He secures the rust belt, isn't a woman so keeps mysoginists onside, he's a slam dunk.
Probably can't win the Primaries though.
This is where the problem is. It is in the heads of the 17.4M leavers. Nowhere else. If they all agreed we'd have a way out. They don't and won't. Admit it.
No Deal is the default, and increasingly likely by 29/3.
I think in the broad population people would be very surprised if we turned out that we Remained. A lot assume that the politicians have been told what to do / we’ve Brexited already. Finding out that they’ve been ignored will massively increase disaffection with politics and the political class
Have a good morning.
most of them have little interest in our issues, they have too many domestic problems of their own.
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
Assuming May’s deal is off the table, what form of Brexit do the public want? There has been no real debate or promotion of “Norway+” or Corbyn’s perma-customs Union.
Scarily, most Brexiters now probably want a No Deal.
IV is a Victorian convention, as is ID.
Irish government accepts it will be introducing hard border
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html
Simon Coveney: “Yes, but we can’t get into where they’ll be at this stage. They could be in the sea, they could be... But once you start talking about checks anywhere near the border, people will start delving into that and all of a sudden we’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”
Shane Ross: “Yeah, but I didn’t know what to say.”
It's a shite state of affairs
Mandating the teaching of Roman numerals to primary school kids struggling with maths is an exercise in utter futility.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
His problem is he needs Brexit put to bed before he calls it, yet has made settling Brexit problematic.
Blazing away at both feet with an AK47 by the looks of it.
Remainers would leap at the chance, would they not?
May gets to avoid her no deal.
The people have no say in whether a referendum occurs. If it's convenient for May and most MPs, it can happen.