Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers: Con 317 DUP 10
Lab 256 SNP 35 Lib Dems 11 Plaid 4 Green 1 Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
The MP totals add up to 642. I think you've included the deputies but not the Speaker. So you need to take two Labour MPs off the total, bringing it down to 254. The two tellers won't vote, bringing it down to 252. So assuming the Conservatives and the DUP do as expected, your maximum is 311.
MPs to think about if you're playing that game:
Frank Field Lady Sylvia Hermon John Woodcock Stephen Lloyd Paul Flynn (who is, I understand, very ill)
Personally I'd expect every other MP outside the Conservatives and the DUP to back the motion.
I'd make 300-309 favourite.
Do you think some Tories might break ranks.
Surely any Conservative voting no confidence in their own government could expect to be kicked out of the party?
They’ve been easy on the likes of Grieve and his shenanigans up until now, but voting down the government would surely be a step too far?
Not if they believe brexit must be stopped as it's the worst thing the country has done for 70 years.
I discount no dealers as they don't need the gov to fall to get what they want, remainers might have no option.
Had an entertaining exchange with local angry Brexiteers on Facebook. They are demanding that our MP respect the referendum. They are also delighted that the deal was voted down (on the grounds that it didn't deliver against the referendum promise of leaving the EU).
My questions to them were two: 1. Mays deal was Brexit. We would have left the EU in March. When you claim her deal meant we wouldn't have left the EU in March what do you mean by "leave" and "EU" 2. You want our MP to deliver the referendum. You think Mays deal didn't deliver the referendum. He voted against it as you wished. Why did he vote wrong?
They seem confused...
It is the most bizarre turn of events that a deal which transparently *was* Brexit is being criticised as not being Brexit.
But of course you factored all this in when you voted Leave, right?
Nope - I hadn't anticipated the levels of alt fact stupidity which has now taken over the body politic.
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked. Which we probably are.
Thing is, you could be a politician. So could anyone here (some of course have). There are precisely zero barriers to entry to become an MP. So I really don't get why people criticise MPs. If you don't like it, get in there and sort it out!
The hoops you'd have to jump through to reach the point where you had a reasonable chance would put most sensible people off.
Sure but no one is going to, say, look at your GCSE results and say "no".
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
Yes, but parliament would also overwhelmingly reject No Deal, which is the only other form of Leave that is available. It would be absurd to offer that too. Which just leaves Remain. It would be absurd to offer a referendum with only one choice.
So where do we go from here?
Do you want to Remain in the EU? Or Remain arguing about how to leave the EU?
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked. Which we probably are.
Thing is, you could be a politician. So could anyone here (some of course have). There are precisely zero barriers to entry to become an MP. So I really don't get why people criticise MPs. If you don't like it, get in there and sort it out!
Ah, the old 'you haven't written a book/composed a symphony/painted a picture, how dare you criticise' argument.
Masterful understatement in the last sentence there Mike.
For me, May should resign today. I agreed with every word of her speech yesterday and thought it was one of her better ones but in terms of getting a consensus she is a part of the problem, not a part of the solution.
The government now actually needs to do some real work preparing for a no deal Brexit. There are a lot of things needing done including legislation to ensure that our legal system remains rational, guaranteeing the status of EU residents unilaterally and working on mini-deals to solve immediate problems. They should also, in my view, be clear that the UK will pay its obligations as set out in the WA whether we sign it or not.
The government under a new leader can try to find a way forward in the Commons but I really don't expect any success at all. The gesture, very belatedly, needs to be made, however.
If I was a Tory MP right now I would be gutted about what has happened to my party and I would be spending time trying to persuade Rory the Tory to be a candidate.
Why do you think MPs will vote for any acts contemplating a non-consensual leave? If there is anything to take from yesterday it is that MPs know (n their own minds) what is wrong but have no positive and consensus driven view of what to do next.
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
Whereas Labour leaders report directly to the Kremlin and their families sold us out during the war, and Labour voters are terminally stupid or have been bribed. Or so we've been told.
There’s a difference between criticising an individual such as Corbyn for his actions (whether you think that is justified or not) and condemning an entire group for a non-specific charge “enemy of decency”
And I don’t recall any significant Conservative (let’s say MP as a cut off because I’m sure you can find a parish councillor from Little Bighorn or somewhere) criticising Labour voters in the manner you suggest
For all that the likes of Soubry are being sensible on this one issue they have still voted through heinous immoral indecent policies against (as an example) the disabled and the poor.
If you want to defend in moral terms what social security cuts have done to reduce army veterans to starve to death in their own homes please feel free. Nor can you claim unforeseen consequences - it was foreseen, it was poo-poohed.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
indeed. But what does go up against remain? Parliament has in essence indicated nothing but remain or unicorns is acceptable to them. They dont have the guts to just remain so will probably try for unicorns or remain by the back door e.g. let's revoke in order to figure out what we want, oh whoops we've remained.
There is nothing you could put up against Remain a referendum...
Doesn't that rather suggest the futility of Brexit ?
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
Yes, but parliament would also overwhelmingly reject No Deal, which is the only other form of Leave that is available. It would be absurd to offer that too. Which just leaves Remain. It would be absurd to offer a referendum with only one choice.
So where do we go from here?
Do you want to Remain in the EU? Or Remain arguing about how to leave the EU?
Matt (as always) put it best yesterday. At some point the MPs have got to stop saying what they don’t want, and speak up for what they do want.
On the numbers. There was a very ill (during pregnancy) MP last night and the Speaker and many others were furious she was made to vote in person.
Surely that wont be allowed/made to happen tonight?
That was my MP. Crazy. But to be fair it was her choice to turn up.
"If my son enters the world even one day later than the doctors advised, but it's a world with a better chance of a strong relationship between Britain and Europe, then that's worth fighting for."
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked. Which we probably are.
Thing is, you could be a politician. So could anyone here (some of course have). There are precisely zero barriers to entry to become an MP. So I really don't get why people criticise MPs. If you don't like it, get in there and sort it out!
Ah, the old 'you haven't written a book/composed a symphony/painted a picture, how dare you criticise' argument.
Meagre.
Not at all. It is more like saying "that bastard printed out his own book at home on his laser printer and handed it out on the tube".
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
indeed. But what does go up against remain? Parliament has in essence indicated nothing but remain or unicorns is acceptable to them. They dont have the guts to just remain so will probably try for unicorns or remain by the back door e.g. let's revoke in order to figure out what we want, oh whoops we've remained.
There is nothing you could put up against Remain a referendum...
Doesn't that rather suggest the futility of Brexit ?
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
Yes, but parliament would also overwhelmingly reject No Deal, which is the only other form of Leave that is available. It would be absurd to offer that too. Which just leaves Remain. It would be absurd to offer a referendum with only one choice.
So where do we go from here?
Do you want to Remain in the EU? Or Remain arguing about how to leave the EU?
Or Remain arguing about how to leave the EU until, bugger - we've No Deal Brexited. How did that happen? Nobody told me that would happen when we approved the legislation.....
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
Yes, but parliament would also overwhelmingly reject No Deal, which is the only other form of Leave that is available. It would be absurd to offer that too. Which just leaves Remain. It would be absurd to offer a referendum with only one choice.
So where do we go from here?
Do you want to Remain in the EU? Or Remain arguing about how to leave the EU?
Matt (as always) put it best yesterday. At some point the MPs have got to stop saying what they don’t want, and speak up for what they do want.
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?
A united Ireland would be within touching distance if they did it.
But they'd still lose wouldn't they? So why bother?
We might get people agitating for @Richard_Tyndall's suggestion of asking what a majority of Northern Ireland wanted from all this.
Would be a mammoth improvement on the likes of Varadkar trying to dictate what should happen to the people of Northern Ireland and disenfranchise them and the people they elect from having a say.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen: May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal. Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain. Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.
Yes, but parliament would also overwhelmingly reject No Deal, which is the only other form of Leave that is available. It would be absurd to offer that too. Which just leaves Remain. It would be absurd to offer a referendum with only one choice.
So where do we go from here?
I would restate my view on a second referendum. I think it only works where the country collectively decides it made a mistake about Brexit and is looking for an out. So in that case "May's Deal" as the Leave alternative could be OK. But you would want to be pretty certain Remain will win.
Otherwise the long grass would be the way to go. Note that the country (narrowly) decided to leave European Union. Note also that no acceptable way of leaving the EU has yet been found. Revoke Article 50. Set up a Commission to establish a path that will work for most of the stakeholders. And let that process take its course.
A majority of Tory backbenchers have no confidence in the Prime Minister and no confidence in her Brexit deal. And yet this evening, like good little boys and girls, they will all trot through the lobby to proclaim that they have confidence in the government.
As I said upthread, other than Brexit the government isn't doing anything. So what exactly are they claiming to have confidence in?
Better for them to get rid of May today and pick a new PM in the next 2 weeks to try and sort out the Brexit mess.
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked. Which we probably are.
Thing is, you could be a politician. So could anyone here (some of course have). There are precisely zero barriers to entry to become an MP. So I really don't get why people criticise MPs. If you don't like it, get in there and sort it out!
Ah, the old 'you haven't written a book/composed a symphony/painted a picture, how dare you criticise' argument.
Meagre.
Not at all. It is more like saying "that bastard printed out his own book at home on his laser printer and handed it out on the tube".
You could do that also.
I can assure you that I'd be quite comfortable expressing an opinion on your 'bastard's' book without firing up my own printer.
Just listened to Jon Trickett on Sky completely avoiding all questions on what labour will do if they win the vonc
He even accused TM of being responsible for the 29th March exit date when 498 mps voted for the date and no deal, including one Jon Trickett. You couldn't make this up
LOL, rehashed junk, Sturgeon had already said publicly that he was represented at the meeting , Gordon on an obvious path to try and rubbish Salmond, is it any wonder the rag is circling the drain with a circulation smaller than a Lib Dem leaflet.
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked. Which we probably are.
Thing is, you could be a politician. So could anyone here (some of course have). There are precisely zero barriers to entry to become an MP. So I really don't get why people criticise MPs. If you don't like it, get in there and sort it out!
Ah, the old 'you haven't written a book/composed a symphony/painted a picture, how dare you criticise' argument.
Comments
I discount no dealers as they don't need the gov to fall to get what they want, remainers might have no option.
If we think on that, what an abject failure by Corbyn in all the circumstances
Surely under any capable labour leader the poll would have easily been reversed
Do you want to Remain in the EU? Or Remain arguing about how to leave the EU?
Personally i think proxy voting should be allowed, but only in deemed reasonable circumstances, not as a matter of simple convenience.
Meagre.
If you want to defend in moral terms what social security cuts have done to reduce army veterans to starve to death in their own homes please feel free. Nor can you claim unforeseen consequences - it was foreseen, it was poo-poohed.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1084867777679294464/photo/1
"If my son enters the world even one day later than the doctors advised, but it's a world with a better chance of a strong relationship between Britain and Europe, then that's worth fighting for."
Virtue signalling par excellence.
You could do that also.
Frankly the entire thing screamed of ego and attention grabbing.
It was Julian Smith.
Otherwise the long grass would be the way to go. Note that the country (narrowly) decided to leave European Union. Note also that no acceptable way of leaving the EU has yet been found. Revoke Article 50. Set up a Commission to establish a path that will work for most of the stakeholders. And let that process take its course.
NEW THREAD
As I said upthread, other than Brexit the government isn't doing anything. So what exactly are they claiming to have confidence in?
Better for them to get rid of May today and pick a new PM in the next 2 weeks to try and sort out the Brexit mess.
If it had been 228 we could be looking at a totally different Plan B.
He even accused TM of being responsible for the 29th March exit date when 498 mps voted for the date and no deal, including one Jon Trickett. You couldn't make this up