politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes”

“Nothing has changed. “

“Brexit means Brexit”

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060

"UK - Brexit - UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?

Yes 5
No 1.24"

Jonathan said:

“No deal is better than a bad deal.”

Precisely. I hope those words rebound in her head and taste like ash in her mouth as this is a bad deal.

Only 4 out of 14 amendments selected?! Why so restrictive, anyone know?

Benpointer said:

Only 4 out of 14 amendments selected?! Why so restrictive, anyone know?

@grabcocque gave a rather good explanation on the midday thread (1.11pm).

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Agreed he's surprisingly hesitant.

What the hell is Corbyn talking about?

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Jezza is at his best when facing an adoring crowd at a rally. Alas he's in the Commons

There is still nothing of substance from Labour about what their version of Brexit would actually look like. And what their plan would be if the EU were to reject their offer.

I'm hoping May immediately calls a GE when the deal is voted down tonight.

Watch the remainers absolutely sh*t themselves.

@MikeSmithson

Thank you for the article. We don't have many articles about the types of betting, and things like this are interesting

We should vote against the deal because it won't solve child poverty in the UK....right.

MikeSmithson said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Jezza is at his best when facing an adoring crowd at a rally. Alas he's in the Commons

I dunno, the Commons right now seems to be demonstrating approximately the same intellectual calibre and grasp of reality as the average Jezz-adoring crowd, or indeed rather stupid three year old.

Corbyn's position is quite spectacularly incoherent. No wonder he's struggling a bit.

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

Sandy Rentool of this forum spent several evenings pushing xenophobic Leave propaganda about Syrians through people’s letterboxes that - as he proudly told us on here - he knew to be a lie.

Case closed on political junk mail. Bin it.

No I did not. I posted leaflets referencing the £350 million - nothing about Syria.

Apologies.

However, you did trumpet on here that you knew that to be a lie.

And you still pushed it through letterboxes.

When your opponents are claiming that the end of western civilization is nigh, the truth has already taken a back seat.

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Jezza is at his best when facing an adoring crowd at a rally. Alas he's in the Commons

I dunno, the Commons right now seems to be demonstrating approximately the same intellectual calibre and grasp of reality as the average Jezz-adoring crowd, or indeed rather stupid three year old.

Bit harsh on 3 year olds in my experience.

Theresa May stands up, to loud and sustained applause from Conservatives.

Oh dear, that's a very bad sign.

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Jezza is at his best when facing an adoring crowd at a rally. Alas he's in the Commons

I dunno, the Commons right now seems to be demonstrating approximately the same intellectual calibre and grasp of reality as the average Jezz-adoring crowd, or indeed rather stupid three year old.

I have nothing other than contempt for the current House of Commons.

The petty posturing and preening that has been displayed by too many members is only matched by their refusal to actually engage with the reality of the situation they are facing.

Far too much bloviating. Far too little reason.

Benpointer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Only 4 out of 14 amendments selected?! Why so restrictive, anyone know?

@grabcocque gave a rather good explanation on the midday thread (1.11pm).

Thanks - just had a quick trawl but can't find it. Never mind it will all be history soon.

Here's what he said:

The Speaker's job is to select which amendments are in order, effective and likely to command the support of the house. Most of the amendments were wrecking amendments, and wrecking amendments are never in order.

As for the Swire and Murrison amendments, they were both ineffective, as they tried to bind the EU to act in a certain way (which Parliament cannot do) or to attempt to redraft the WA to say something it does not (which directly contradicts the government's legal obligations and would therefore be unconscionable to do).

The Mann amendment was not selected due to lack of support in the house. After Labour, the ERG and the DUP all declined to support it, it would have been futile to put it to the house.

Once again, if the House finds fault with the way the Speaker selects amendments, they are welcome to move an early day motion and resolve that the house has no confidence in him and a new speaker would be elected.

But I think we all know the House would resolve it still very much has confidence in the Speaker.

oxfordsimon said:

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Jezza is at his best when facing an adoring crowd at a rally. Alas he's in the Commons

I dunno, the Commons right now seems to be demonstrating approximately the same intellectual calibre and grasp of reality as the average Jezz-adoring crowd, or indeed rather stupid three year old.

I have nothing other than contempt for the current House of Commons.

The petty posturing and preening that has been displayed by too many members is only matched by their refusal to actually engage with the reality of the situation they are facing.

Far too much bloviating. Far too little reason.

Again, I think I feel hatred as well as contempt.

If every one of these tossers loses their seats, good riddance. We need a clearout.

SandyRentool said:

Barnesian said:

Benpointer said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Agreed he's surprisingly hesitant.

Mrs May is more impressive. She has rehearsed. But she looks exhausted and no wonder. This might swing a few votes (at OGH's expense).

She certainly has rehearsed - she's delivered this speech at least 10 times already.

But what's the point - it's not going to sway anyone

viewcode said:

Anazina said:

AndyJS said:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130766060

"UK - Brexit - UK to leave the EU by the 29/03/2019?

Yes 5
No 1.24"

Yes is already value and will be superb value by last orders (am in the pub)

I am quietly appalled by this. The bigger the defeat, the lower the probability of leaving on time? People are cray-cray...

It makes a certain amount of sense if people are taking it as axiomatic that a No Deal exit is unlikely. In that case the only way we'll leave on time is if May's deal is approved. The bigger the defeat, the less likely that is.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

Only 4 out of 14 amendments selected?! Why so restrictive, anyone know?

@grabcocque gave a rather good explanation on the midday thread (1.11pm).

Thanks - just had a quick trawl but can't find it. Never mind it will all be history soon.

Here's what he said:

The Speaker's job is to select which amendments are in order, effective and likely to command the support of the house. Most of the amendments were wrecking amendments, and wrecking amendments are never in order.

As for the Swire and Murrison amendments, they were both ineffective, as they tried to bind the EU to act in a certain way (which Parliament cannot do) or to attempt to redraft the WA to say something it does not (which directly contradicts the government's legal obligations and would therefore be unconscionable to do).

The Mann amendment was not selected due to lack of support in the house. After Labour, the ERG and the DUP all declined to support it, it would have been futile to put it to the house.

Once again, if the House finds fault with the way the Speaker selects amendments, they are welcome to move an early day motion and resolve that the house has no confidence in him and a new speaker would be elected.

But I think we all know the House would resolve it still very much has confidence in the Speaker.

Thanks

Recidivist said:

Nemtynakht said:

Recidivist said:

The People's Vote crowd have an impressive turnout in Parliament Square. I wonder how this influences proceedings in the House?

https://twitter.com/WinstonsBack/status/1085227083666780167

This kind of post is the problem I have with peoples vote. You see hardly anyone calling for peoples vote who wants to leave. And drumming up a crowd in London to support Remain is like shooting fish in a barrel. Try doing in Stoke then you can say it’s the will of the people

Well there's always an angle that enables you to dismiss people you disagree with. Who cares what muesli eating Londoners think? Who cares what the old and uneducated think?

But the fact is that it is looking like the whole Brexit process is going to be played out while parliament is surrounded by crowds highly motivated to oppose it. The last time crowds took that much interest was the Great Reform Act.

Well yes I agree people are interest3d but my assertion is that just because you can get a crowd of people in London supporting a People’s Vote (remain by another name), it isn’t exactly some sort of show of support, just like if you did a petition in Stoke or anther strong leave area for Leave it would get lots of leavers signing.

SunnyJim said:

There is still nothing of substance from Labour about what their version of Brexit would actually look like. And what their plan would be if the EU were to reject their offer.

I'm hoping May immediately calls a GE when the deal is voted down tonight.

Watch the remainers absolutely sh*t themselves.

Experience to date suggests that May will simply wait a few days, perhaps visit Brussels to obtain a letter that contains nothing new, and then come back and put the same Deal to Parliament again.

I stand to be proven wrong by events (I have been often enough in the past, after all,) but unless or until there's a revolt somewhere on the Government side then nothing will change, and the clock will continue to tick down. And neither the ERG wing, nor the DUP with their crucial votes, have any incentive to rock the boat under such circumstances. If the clock simply runs down to zero without Parliament caving in and backing the Withdrawal Agreement, then they get everything that they want.

If a majority exists in Parliament for staying in the EU, then the various groups within it are only going to get their way by working together. I very much doubt that the current Prime Minister will expedite their wishes.

It’s almost like it’s Prime Minister’s Questions!

Interesting intervention from Sir Edward. Is that enough for him?

Benpointer said:

May seems to think a GE would be in the interests of Jezza.

What did she say?

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

Sandy Rentool of this forum spent several evenings pushing xenophobic Leave propaganda about Syrians through people’s letterboxes that - as he proudly told us on here - he knew to be a lie.

Case closed on political junk mail. Bin it.

No I did not. I posted leaflets referencing the £350 million - nothing about Syria.

Apologies.

However, you did trumpet on here that you knew that to be a lie.

And you still pushed it through letterboxes.

When your opponents are claiming that the end of western civilization is nigh, the truth has already taken a back seat.

Thanks for proving my point. Political ‘literature’ aka propaganda/lies that gets pushed through the letterboxes of householders is a waste of paper, and a waste of a life for those who do it. It’s mostly lies. Get rid of it.

I would be happy to receive a document that carried a summary of the party policies being put forward in their manifesto, a short biography and photograph of the candidate plus a personal statement from the candidate. That is all that is necessary. It would be the same for all candidates - same format, distributed at the same time.

DavidL said:

Interesting intervention from Sir Edward. Is that enough for him?

I don't think so. It means she is prepared to develop his ideas on the backstop with him for a second go with her deal but she'll only do that if her deal is voted down this evening. Why would he vote for it?

I must say he seemed very pleased with her response and looked approvingly back at his colleagues almost with a wink.

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

Sandy Rentool of this forum spent several evenings pushing xenophobic Leave propaganda about Syrians through people’s letterboxes that - as he proudly told us on here - he knew to be a lie.

Case closed on political junk mail. Bin it.

No I did not. I posted leaflets referencing the £350 million - nothing about Syria.

Apologies.

However, you did trumpet on here that you knew that to be a lie.

And you still pushed it through letterboxes.

When your opponents are claiming that the end of western civilization is nigh, the truth has already taken a back seat.

Thanks for proving my point. Political ‘literature’ aka propaganda/lies that gets pushed through the letterboxes of householders is a waste of paper, and a waste of a life for those who do it. It’s mostly lies. Get rid of it.

You'll be pleased to hear that in my local election 'campaign' (ha ha) last year I delivered precisely zero pieces of literature.

Glad to hear it.

Flame over!

ydoethur said:

oxfordsimon said:

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Jezza is at his best when facing an adoring crowd at a rally. Alas he's in the Commons

I dunno, the Commons right now seems to be demonstrating approximately the same intellectual calibre and grasp of reality as the average Jezz-adoring crowd, or indeed rather stupid three year old.

I have nothing other than contempt for the current House of Commons.

The petty posturing and preening that has been displayed by too many members is only matched by their refusal to actually engage with the reality of the situation they are facing.

Far too much bloviating. Far too little reason.

Again, I think I feel hatred as well as contempt.

If every one of these tossers loses their seats, good riddance. We need a clearout.

+1

Richard_Nabavi said:

Theresa May stands up, to loud and sustained applause from Conservatives.

Oh dear, that's a very bad sign.

The fond farewell?

It's amazing to reflect that after the last few years of hatred and division Theresa May tonight has united the House of Commons and the wider country.

It is disturbing to reflect she has done so by delivering on their instructions, getting an extremely good deal that actually should satisfy most requirements, and the had them all shout that this isn't what they wanted.

What does that say about us as a nation?

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

oxfordsimon said:

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Barnesian said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza seems to have invested in a shiny new tie for this big evening.

He's struggling a bit. Stumbling. I don't think he's pre-read or rehearsed his speech.

Jezza is at his best when facing an adoring crowd at a rally. Alas he's in the Commons

I dunno, the Commons right now seems to be demonstrating approximately the same intellectual calibre and grasp of reality as the average Jezz-adoring crowd, or indeed rather stupid three year old.

I have nothing other than contempt for the current House of Commons.

The petty posturing and preening that has been displayed by too many members is only matched by their refusal to actually engage with the reality of the situation they are facing.

Far too much bloviating. Far too little reason.

Again, I think I feel hatred as well as contempt.

If every one of these tossers loses their seats, good riddance. We need a clearout.

+1

+1

grabcocque said:

Amazing to think that by bed time Parliament will have decided once and for all whether it's pronounced Breggsit or Brecksit.

I would say my feelings on the state of our democracy are more at the Bricksit stage.

This is going quickly...

grabcocque said:

ydoethur said:

What does that say about us as a nation?

It says we as a nation don't take kindly to people who decide for us what we want, without bothering to ask us, and then try to blackmail us into supporting it.

We were asked, Tim. We had this funny thing called a referendum.

Division

SandyRentool said:

oxfordsimon said:

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

Sandy Rentool of this forum spent several evenings pushing xenophobic Leave propaganda about Syrians through people’s letterboxes that - as he proudly told us on here - he knew to be a lie.

Case closed on political junk mail. Bin it.

No I did not. I posted leaflets referencing the £350 million - nothing about Syria.

Apologies.

However, you did trumpet on here that you knew that to be a lie.

And you still pushed it through letterboxes.

When your opponents are claiming that the end of western civilization is nigh, the truth has already taken a back seat.

Thanks for proving my point. Political ‘literature’ aka propaganda/lies that gets pushed through the letterboxes of householders is a waste of paper, and a waste of a life for those who do it. It’s mostly lies. Get rid of it.

I would be happy to receive a document that carried a summary of the party policies being put forward in their manifesto, a short biography and photograph of the candidate plus a personal statement from the candidate. That is all that is necessary. It would be the same for all candidates - same format, distributed at the same time.

Our local paper did that last year for all of the council election candidates.

That is all that is necessary - introduce the candidates, the policies and let the voters digest. We do not need fake headlines, fake bar charts. And if a lie is found, the candidate(s) would be forced to issue a constituency/ward wide document retracting the lie and issuing a formal apology.

Does this mean the meaningful vote will come much earlier than expected?

williamglenn said:

Does this mean the meaningful vote will come much earlier than expected?

Yes

oxfordsimon said:

SandyRentool said:

oxfordsimon said:

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

Sandy Rentool of this forum spent several evenings pushing xenophobic Leave propaganda about Syrians through people’s letterboxes that - as he proudly told us on here - he knew to be a lie.

Case closed on political junk mail. Bin it.

No I did not. I posted leaflets referencing the £350 million - nothing about Syria.

Apologies.

However, you did trumpet on here that you knew that to be a lie.

And you still pushed it through letterboxes.

When your opponents are claiming that the end of western civilization is nigh, the truth has already taken a back seat.

Thanks for proving my point. Political ‘literature’ aka propaganda/lies that gets pushed through the letterboxes of householders is a waste of paper, and a waste of a life for those who do it. It’s mostly lies. Get rid of it.

I would be happy to receive a document that carried a summary of the party policies being put forward in their manifesto, a short biography and photograph of the candidate plus a personal statement from the candidate. That is all that is necessary. It would be the same for all candidates - same format, distributed at the same time.

Our local paper did that last year for all of the council election candidates.

That is all that is necessary - introduce the candidates, the policies and let the voters digest. We do not need fake headlines, fake bar charts. And if a lie is found, the candidate(s) would be forced to issue a constituency/ward wide document retracting the lie and issuing a formal apology.

The SNP candidate for Orkney would probably consider that insufficient.

grabcocque said:

Laura Kuenssberg doing her "unofficial spokesman for the Prime Minister" schtick.

Oh give it a rest.

Benpointer said:

grabcocque said:

Corbyn amendment not moved.
SNP amendment not moved.
Leigh amendment not moved.

Presume they know they will not pass.

Nothing will pass. Not the deal, not revoke, not even a vnoc, or a new government.

Which is why no deal is now red hot favourite.

Just a thought - is Onasanya voting tonight?